CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE ......2016/06/21 · climate change effects. Vulnerability...
Transcript of CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE ......2016/06/21 · climate change effects. Vulnerability...
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
FEBRUARY 2016
PREPARED BYPREPARED FOR
This research was funded by the District of Columbia Sustainable DC Innovation Fund (DOEE ID 2013-9-OPS)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY amp ENVIRONMENTTommy Wells DirectorMaribeth DiLorenzo Deputy Director Urban Sustainability AdministrationKate Johnson Climate Program Analyst Phetmano Phannavong Environmental Engineer
Produced in collaboration withPERKINS+WILLAmy Thompson Project ManagerJanice Barnes PrincipalDouglas Pierce PrincipalJon Penndorf Sustainability Leader
KLEINFELDERLisa Dickson Principal in ChargeNathalie Beauvais Project ManagerIndrani Ghosh Lead ModelerNasser Brahim Vulnerability AssessmentKarin Hagan GIS Lead
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
FEBRUARY 2016
PREPARED BYPREPARED FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
OVERVIEW 13
01 METHODOLOGY 17
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 18
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING 19
EXPOSURE TO HEAT 24
RISK ASSESSMENT 25
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 27
ENERGY 32
TRANSPORTATION 33
TRANSIT 35
WATER 37
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 43
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES 48
SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY 48
MEDICAL SERVICES 49
HUMAN SERVICES 49
SCHOOLS 50
PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS 50
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS 53
05 NEXT STEPS 57
REFERENCES 62
ATTACHMENTS 1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RANKING PROTOCOL
2 MAPS (Electric format high resolution)
CONTENTS
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
This research was funded by the District of Columbia Sustainable DC Innovation Fund (DOEE ID 2013-9-OPS)
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY amp ENVIRONMENTTommy Wells DirectorMaribeth DiLorenzo Deputy Director Urban Sustainability AdministrationKate Johnson Climate Program Analyst Phetmano Phannavong Environmental Engineer
Produced in collaboration withPERKINS+WILLAmy Thompson Project ManagerJanice Barnes PrincipalDouglas Pierce PrincipalJon Penndorf Sustainability Leader
KLEINFELDERLisa Dickson Principal in ChargeNathalie Beauvais Project ManagerIndrani Ghosh Lead ModelerNasser Brahim Vulnerability AssessmentKarin Hagan GIS Lead
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
FEBRUARY 2016
PREPARED BYPREPARED FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
OVERVIEW 13
01 METHODOLOGY 17
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 18
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING 19
EXPOSURE TO HEAT 24
RISK ASSESSMENT 25
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 27
ENERGY 32
TRANSPORTATION 33
TRANSIT 35
WATER 37
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 43
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES 48
SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY 48
MEDICAL SERVICES 49
HUMAN SERVICES 49
SCHOOLS 50
PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS 50
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS 53
05 NEXT STEPS 57
REFERENCES 62
ATTACHMENTS 1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RANKING PROTOCOL
2 MAPS (Electric format high resolution)
CONTENTS
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
FEBRUARY 2016
PREPARED BYPREPARED FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
OVERVIEW 13
01 METHODOLOGY 17
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 18
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING 19
EXPOSURE TO HEAT 24
RISK ASSESSMENT 25
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 27
ENERGY 32
TRANSPORTATION 33
TRANSIT 35
WATER 37
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 43
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES 48
SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY 48
MEDICAL SERVICES 49
HUMAN SERVICES 49
SCHOOLS 50
PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS 50
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS 53
05 NEXT STEPS 57
REFERENCES 62
ATTACHMENTS 1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RANKING PROTOCOL
2 MAPS (Electric format high resolution)
CONTENTS
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
OVERVIEW 13
01 METHODOLOGY 17
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 18
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING 19
EXPOSURE TO HEAT 24
RISK ASSESSMENT 25
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 27
ENERGY 32
TRANSPORTATION 33
TRANSIT 35
WATER 37
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 43
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES 48
SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY 48
MEDICAL SERVICES 49
HUMAN SERVICES 49
SCHOOLS 50
PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS 50
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS 53
05 NEXT STEPS 57
REFERENCES 62
ATTACHMENTS 1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RANKING PROTOCOL
2 MAPS (Electric format high resolution)
CONTENTS
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
OVERVIEW 13
01 METHODOLOGY 17
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 18
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING 19
EXPOSURE TO HEAT 24
RISK ASSESSMENT 25
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 27
ENERGY 32
TRANSPORTATION 33
TRANSIT 35
WATER 37
TELECOMMUNICATIONS 41
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT 43
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES 48
SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY 48
MEDICAL SERVICES 49
HUMAN SERVICES 49
SCHOOLS 50
PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS 50
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS 53
05 NEXT STEPS 57
REFERENCES 62
ATTACHMENTS 1 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND RANKING PROTOCOL
2 MAPS (Electric format high resolution)
CONTENTS
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT6
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
7
FIGURESFIGURE 1 SCORING CRITERIA
FIGURE 2 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 3 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
FIGURE 4 SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDICATORS
MAPSMAP 1 PLANNING PRIORITY AREAS
MAP 2 2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 3 2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 4 2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AREAS
MAP 5 COMPILATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
MAP 6 WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS 2020 2050 AND 2080
MAP 7 COMPILATION OF COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
MAP 8 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT8
Climate change is redefining risk both locally and globally Past events are no longer reasonable proxies for current or future conditions The District of Columbia has taken a proactive stance on climate change and is committed to identifying prioritizing and addressing climate risks Sustainable DC the Districtrsquos comprehensive sustainability plan adopted in 2013 called on the District to ldquoadvance physical adaption and human preparedness to increase the Districtrsquos resilience to future climate changerdquo In order to achieve that goal the Department of Energy and Environment (DOEE) launched an effort to develop a citywide climate adaptation and resilience plan for the District This report is the second step of that multi-phase project The first phase assessed how climate change is likely to affect the District This report assesses the vulnerabilities and risks that the District faces due to those climate change effects
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact
The vulnerability and risk assessment summarized here is based on climate change projections and scenarios established in the first phase of the project and are summarized in the previously released Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report Those scenarios include rising temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves increased frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events rising sea levels and
increased coastal flooding due to storm surge The scenarios were used to conduct a ldquostress testrdquo on the Districtrsquos infrastructure and resources Based on the climate scenarios developed in the previous report the project team used GIS mapping and conversations with District government agencies and stakeholders to evaluate the vulnerability of District infrastructure public facilities and populations The findings in this report represent a first order prioritization of at-risk assets and neighborhoods that will inform the final climate adaptation plan as well as related planning efforts The final climate adaptation plan will provide an integrated analysis of existing climate change data an assessment of vulnerable assets and recommend strategies to help the District reduce risk and adapt to a changing climate
Key FindingsThe key findings from the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment are as follows
bull Wards 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of residents with a higher vulnerability to climate change impacts ndash especially an increase in extreme heat ndash due to the socioeconomic factors that increase sensitivity to heat and limit the ability to adapt including unemployment age (seniors and young children) and income
bull Ward 7 is also home to the largest number of vulnerable community resources such as schools medical services and human services particularly in the floodplain of the Watts Branch tributary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
9
bull Other community resources at risk of flooding including police fire and local and federal emergency operations centers are concentrated in Downtown DC (around Federal Triangle area) and Southwest DC (south of the Capitol to Buzzard Point) If flooding were to occur in these areas it could impact multiple facilities that serve critical public safety functions when they would be needed most Such scenarios could likely occur due to flooding from sea level rise storm surge and extreme precipitation as a result of climate change
bull Major infrastructure assets such as electric substations and Metrorail (operated by the Washington Metro Area Transit Authority or WMATA) are at-risk to increased heat and flooding by 2020 or 2050 their failure could have significant regional impact as District businesses governments and residents rely on energy supply and public transportation for day-to-day life Two of the three electric substations identified as at-risk in this report are within or are abutting the 100 year-floodplain and are currently at risk of being flooded They are all located in the 500-year floodplain which may be a more appropriate indicator of future flood risk given projected sea level rise and increased frequency of extreme precipitation events
bull Surface flooding from inland precipitation events may pose as much risk as flooding associated with sea level rise and storm
surge ndash especially in the near term
bull Areas of risk to flooding and extreme heat are not evenly distributed throughout the District but instead are concentrated near particular water bodies (eg the Watts Branch tributary to the Anacostia River) or areas with a large number of highly vulnerable residents that will not only be more at risk of exposure to climate impacts but are also less likely to have the means to adapt or be resilient to flooding or heat stress
bull Under existing conditions the District is already vulnerable to flooding along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers as documented by repetitive historic flooding events and the Federal Emergency Management Agencyrsquos (FEMA) map of the 100-year floodplain The combined impact of increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge will require reconsidering the delineation of the current 100-year and 500-year floodplain boundaries to reflect increased flooding risks in the future
bull Taking into account the Districtrsquos unique geography as it is bounded by the Potomac River and is bisected by the Anacostia Riverbridges provide vital connections within the District and to surrounding areas Their possible failure due to flooding impacts would have significant implications on the functioning of the larger regional transportation network Key bridges have been potentially identified as at risk in
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
this assessment such as the 14th Street Bridges1 that span the Potomac River It is recommended that a more detailed vulnerability assessment be performed for key bridges spanning the Potomac and Anacostia rivers
Since many of these risks to regional assets are not limited to the Districtrsquos jurisdiction adaptation will require coordination with other states agencies and organizations such as regional transportation agencies and energy providers
Priority Adaption Planning AreasPlanning priority areas have been identified as areas regrouping a concentration of assets most at risk and located in areas also showing highly vulnerable populations
Map 1 the Priority Planning Areas Map shows the five (5) identified areas with the most at-risk infrastructure community resources and populations with respect to climate change within the boundaries of the District It represents the results of an assessment and ranking of the comparative risk to infrastructure public facilities and community resources based on the likelihood of exposure to climate change impacts and the consequences of a failure or disruption The scoring system used also considered the cascading impact of one system failing and interdependencies of the infrastructure
systems and critical resources For example flooding could impact lifeline systems such as energy and telecommunications without which some roadway infrastructure (eg traffic signals lighting) may not be able to properly function The adaptation plan will provide recommendations to reduce risks to the Priority Planning Areas as well as the District as whole Areas are identified as planning priority areas as they have a higher risk of vulnerability by failure of many systems and would impact populations that are likely to be most impacted by climate change impacts As informed by the vulnerability and risk assessment key findings adaption planning should focus on these locations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 1
Includes the neighborhoods of Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park Because this area has already experienced significant flooding due to the limited capacity of the existing stormwater management systems the projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme precipitation elevates these neighborhoods to a high-risk level Ongoing efforts to expand the capacity of the stormwater system capacity in the area including DC Waterrsquos Northeast Boundary Tunnel and interim McMillan Stormwater Storage Project will significantly reduce this risk but not for the most extreme events
1 The 14th Street Bridges refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial Arlan Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail Bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
11
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 2
This area around the Watts Branch a tributary to the Anacostia River is currently at risk of flooding and is projected to be at increased risk as early as 2020 This area has a significant concentration of community resources at-risk such as medical services and public housing including the soon-to-redeveloped Kenilworth Courts project that serve vulnerable populations
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 3
This area includes the Districtrsquos downtown area centered around the Federal Triangle neighborhood These areas are already at risk of riverine coastal and interior flooding which will be exacerbated by 2080 These areas have a significant concentration of built infrastructure including a large concentration of professional businesses cultural resources including the Smithsonian and National Mall as well as Metrorail stations and other community resources such as the John A Wilson Building (city hall) and other DC agency headquarters This arearsquos roadway and transit systems also serve a large number of the Districtrsquos transient population of commuters and tourists Actions are already being taken to better protect this area from riverine flooding including upgrades to the 17th Street Levee and the greater Potomac levee system It will however remain at risk to interior flooding and by 2080 there will be an increased risk from riverine and coastal flooding due to rising sea level
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 4
This area in Southwest DC extends from south of the Capitol to Buzzards Point and is primarily at risk of riverine and coastal flooding This area is a mix of residential commercial government and several large development projects and planning initiatives (The Wharf Buzzard Point DC United Soccer Stadium etc) The area includes a variety of community resource facilities and infrastructure at risk of flooding including public safety public housing human services transit energy and wastewater Several public housing properties are located in Priority Area 4 including the Greenleaf properties that are scheduled to be redeveloped in the near future and James Creek Metrorail lines that cross through this area include the Green Line and BlueOrangeSilver Line
PRIORITY PLANNING AREA 5
This area along the Potomac River is at risk of flooding within 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios which will impact a key electrical sub-station and the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant A planned sea wall at Blue Plains which is being designed to the current 500-year flood elevation plus three feet to account for sea level rise will substantially reduce the risk to the plant but not necessarily the surrounding areas
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAP 1 Planning Priority Areas (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
PRIORITY PLANNING AREAS MAP
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
13
In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the District of Columbia we inventoried key infrastructure and community resources and ranked them based on their vulnerability to climate change and the risk associated with their failure Assets are determined to be critical or key based on their contribution to the overall functionality of the District as a whole and the consequences if they were to fail
Examples of critical infrastructure include electrical substations and roadways Key community resources include facilities that support the well-being of the community such as affordable housing and human services The listing below represents the critical infrastructure and key community resources that were included in this analysis A detailed discussion of each follows
BUILT INFRASTRUCTURES2
Energy
Transportation
Water
Telecommunication
COMMUNITY RESOURCES
Municipal Resources
Emergency Services
Medical Services
Human Services
Schools
Public Housing
In addition to threats to the built environment we considered the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos residents recognizing that some residents will be less able to adapt to the risks of climate change Social aspects of vulnerability to climate change impacts are more challenging to measure than those in the built environment as they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors In order to identify the wards with the largest share of vulnerable residents a vulnerable population index3 was developed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators of both sensitivity to climate change impacts and ability adapt Indicators include the following
OVERVIEW
2 There are some infrastructure types and community resources that were not included in this study due to a lack of publicly available geospatial data for the resource3 Refer to the Attachment titled ldquoSocial Vulnerability and Ranking Protocolrdquo for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT14
bull Income poverty is associated with poor nutrition and less access to medical care Low-income individuals also have fewer financial resources to cope with and recover from disasters and disruptions such as damage to housing disruption to work schedules
bull Age seniors and young children are more sensitive to extreme heat Seniors may also be less able to cope with flooding and other disasters due to poor health disabilities or other functional needs or limited financial resources
The data used for the index were derived from demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan (2013) This vulnerability assessment also considers populations within DC such as the tourist population commuters or outdoor workers which are also likely to be impacted by climate change related events such as flooding and heat waves
The team did not explicitly assess the vulnerability of natural systems because those analyses are covered by other studies that have recently been completed or are underway For example in the 2015 Wildlife Action Plan DOEE assessed the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos wildlife and habitat to climate change and identified priority habitat restoration and protection actions Furthermore nature-based strategies to
address climate change impacts such as expanding the current tree canopy use of green infrastructure to reduce stormwater runoff and the use of wetlands to mitigate flooding will also be addressed in the forthcoming Climate Change Adaptation Plan Report
Finally many of the Districtrsquos infrastructure and natural systems extend beyond the cityrsquos boundaries or are outside of its direct jurisdiction so the impacts of climate change on the District at-large are codependent upon regional conditions and actions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
15
PHOTO CREDIT VICTORIA PICKERING SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
PHOTO CREDIT KEVIN WOLF SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
01METHODOLOGY
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT18
01 METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability to climate change is expressed as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Exposure refers to the extent to which a system comes into contact with a specific climate change impact The types and extent of exposure have been determined as part of the Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report which established the basis for conducting the vulnerability and risk assessment For example exposure for a specific asset such as an electric substation is determined by its location within an area prone to flooding as identified in the 2020 2050 and 2080 scenarios
Sensitivity is the degree to which the functionality of a system is affected by a specific climate change impact whether directly or indirectly For example a roadway might be less sensitive to flooding than an electric substation
Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate change and includes adjustments both in behavior and in resources and technologies For example two emergency facilities in close proximity one of which is located in a less flood-prone area would allow for redundancy in service and provide for adaptive capacity Cost and feasibility are often key factors in determining the adaptive capacity of a system
For the purpose of this study exposure is used as a proxy for vulnerability for critical infrastructures community resources and populations However the sensitivity of an asset in terms of its overall functionality was factored into the scoring and ranking of assets as described in the risk assessment methodology section below
The vulnerability and risk assessment was performed using existing or as-is conditions for assets resources and population Subsequent damages or upgrades to assets changes in urban development and in the demographics of each ward in the city will yield a different ranking for vulnerability and risk This assessment has been designed to be revised over time to update the ranking of elements most at risk
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
19
EXPOSURE TO FLOODING
The scenarios used to determine the extent of exposure to climate change impacts are based on data summarized in the previous Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report The flood exposure maps (Map 2 3 and 4) illustrate projected impacts for flooding in each of the climate projection scenarios The flooding maps are used as the basis to assess exposure of the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources to flooding and provide a GIS tool to identify areas and assets with increasing risks
For sea level rise and storm surge the following scenarios were used
bull 2020 The present 100-year base flood elevation as determined by FEMA is used as a proxy for future coastal storm surge and riverine flooding in 2020 The base flood elevation is the computed elevation to which floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood which in the case of the 100-year flood is an event having a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year In order to account for interior drainage flooding which is not considered to be part of the floodplain outlined by FEMA this scenario also considered historic neighborhood flooding as reported by stakeholders including those areas within 500 feet of a high-risk storm drain4 and with properties that have suffered repetitive losses as reported by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)
bull 2050 The storm surge extent maps for a Category 2 hurricane created by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the 2015 North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) The Category 2 hurricane map serves as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + three feet since these two layers are approximately comparable in extent The three additional feet accounts for a conservative estimate of projected sea level rise by 2050 as well as based on general scientific consensus that sea level rise is projected to be higher than two feet by mid-century
bull 2080 The current FEMA 500-year base flood elevation This is approximately equal to the current 100-year flood + four feet The four additional feet accounts for the projected amount of sea level rise (up to 34 feet from 2014 according to the USACE) by 2080
4 High-risk storm drain according to 2010 DC Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT20
01 METHODOLOGY
For precipitation the following design storms5 were used
2020
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 46 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
20506
bull Higher scenario 105 inches for the 100-year 24-hour storm
bull Lower scenario 47 inches for the 15-year 6-hour storm
2080
bull Higher scenario 14 inches for the 100-year mdash 24 hour storm
bull Lower scenario 5 inches for the 15-year mdash 6 hour storm
While these calculations indicate the depth of rain expected in future storms they do not provide the extent or depth of flooding that could be associated with each This requires
additional modeling that was beyond the scope of this project As a proxy areas within the FEMA floodplain and areas of known flooding risk (refer to maps 2 3 and 4) have been identified as at-risk areas for increased precipitation in the future The precipitation scenarios have been considered qualitatively for the purpose of this assessment The results shown here should be treated as a first-order approximation to identify priority risk areas until additional modeling is completed
5 Design storms are the precipitation (rain) events that engineers use to design drainage infrastructure bridges culverts etc6 According to climate change projections completed for theClimat eprojections and Scenario Development Report there were no significant changes in the design storm depths (in inches) between the 2020s and 2050s Hence the precipitation scenarios are similar between these two planning horizons
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
21
MAP 2 2020 Scenario for flooding areas of known flood risk and the current FEMA 100-year floodplain (Source FEMA and NACCS maps and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2020 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2020 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT22
01 METHODOLOGY
MAP 3 2050 Scenario based on NACCS SLOSH hurricane storm surge inundation mapping for present day Category 2 hurricane as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 3 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2050 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater BodyWater BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2050 ScenarioWater Body
Ward BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
23
MAP 4 2080 Scenario based on current FEMA 500-year floodplain as a proxy for the current FEMA 100-year base flood elevation + 4 feet of sea level rise (Source NACCS map and historic flooding as identified by stakeholders overlaid on GIS map base Kleinfelder 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Anaco
stia
Rive
r
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
2080 SCENARIO FOR FLOODING
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
Known Flood Risk2080 Scenario
Water BodyWater Boundary
District of Columbia Boundary
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
ma c
R ive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
costi
aRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Copyright copy2014 Esri DeLorme HERE
LEGEND
Known Flood Risk2080 ScenarioWater BodyWard BoundaryDistrict of Columbia Boundary
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT24
01 METHODOLOGY
Heat waves are defined as an extended period of very high temperatures For this study a heat wave was defined as three or more days with a temperature in excess of 95degF The extended period of heat has significant implications for public health as human physiology is sensitive to long periods of sustained heat exposure resulting in an increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths The elderly and very young and those with chronic health conditions such as obesity and diabetes are at greater risk for heat-related illness or death (Basu and Samet 2002) during extreme or prolonged heat waves as well those with respiratory or circulatory diseases (Anderson and Bell 2009)
As documented in the previously published Climate Projections and Scenario Development Report temperatures are projected to continue to increase in the District Currently summer daytime maximum temperatures average 87degF and nighttime minimum temperatures average 66degF In the projected temperature scenarios summer daytime maximums the duration of heat waves and the number of dangerously hot days are all expected to increase The selected scenarios are
bull 2020 Increase of daytime maximum by 25 - 3degF and a possible heat wave of 6 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2050 Increase of daytime maximum by 5 - 7degF and a possible heat wave of 8 - 95 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
bull 2080 Increase of daytime maximum by 6 - 10degF and a possible heat wave of 95 - 12 days with a daily maximum heat index value above 95 degF
In the absence of heat island maps that show the spatial variability of localized urban heat island impacts this assessment of heat-related vulnerability has been performed for the District as a whole A ldquostress testrdquo was conducted for increased heat for 2050 and 2080 with the assumption that the year 2020 was too close to the present day to reflect a significant change It was assumed by the research team that the Districtrsquos critical infrastructure and community resources are designed to adequately meet current high temperatures but might begin to fail under more frequent extreme heat by 2050 It should be noted however that some infrastructure assets such as the Metrorail and regional rail lines already must reduce service and train speeds during extreme heat events due to concerns about heat-related damage to tracks (VRE 2015)
EXPOSURE TO HEAT
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
globalchangegovreport sectorshuman-health
REFERENCES
63
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services httptidesandcurrentsnoaagov
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Historical Hurricane Tracks httpcoastnoaagov
hurricanes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
Changes around the United States httpwww
noaanewsnoaagovstories201420140728_
nuisancefloodinghtml
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
govcag Accessed March 5 2015
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
Neighborhood Resiliencerdquo Housing Policy Debate
221 29
Quigley John M and Rosenthal Larry A
ldquoHurricane Katrina Catastrophic Impacts and
Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
Disasters Cities Public Policy eds Berkeley Public
Policy Press 127 2008 httpurbanpolicyberkeley
edupdfCh07_Tierneypdf
Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
dcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitessustainable
page_contentattachmentsDCS-00820
Report205083jpdf
Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
to Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation
Climate Projections Intl J Climatology 33 11
2473ndash2494
Tierney Kathleen Tierney ldquoHurricane Katrina
Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
Risking House and Home Disasters Cities Public
Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
eds Berkeley Public Policy Press 127 2008
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ER 1100-
2-8162 Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil
Works Programs 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North
Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study 2015
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate
Change Adaptation Comprehensive Evaluation of
Projects with Respect to Sea-Level Change http
wwwcorpsclimateusccaceslcurvescfm
United States Census Bureau httpquickfacts
censusgovqfdstates11000html
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Questions About Your Community Indoor Air
httpwwwepagovregion1communitiesindoorair
html
Vandetorren S Suzan F Medina S Pascal M
Maulpoix A Cohen J-C amp Ledrans M 2004
Mortality in 13 French cities during the August
2003 heat wave American journal of public health
94 1518-20
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) 2015 httpwww
vreorgfeedbackfrequently_asked_questions
faq_heat_ordershtm
arearesearchorg
AREA RESEARCH
25
The risk assessment analyzes the most vulnerable assets identified in the vulnerability assessment and ranks them based on probability of occurrence and consequence of impact It assigns a value to the probability of an event occurring and to the relative impact if it were to occur For example a Capital Bikeshare station located near a waterbody may have significant vulnerability to flooding There may also be a high probability that the flooding would occur However the overall impact such as increased commuting time for bicyclists or decreased recreational biking opportunities would be less significant to the District as a whole compared to the flooding of an electrical substation which may leave residents businesses and public services without power Given the same probability of flooding the electrical substation is identified as a high-risk asset while the Capital Bikeshare station is not The areas with the most assetssystems at high-risk are identified as the priority planning areas and will be a focus for subsequent adaptation planning
As illustrated in Figure 1 each asset was ranked according to a qualitative assessment based on the extent of area of service loss the estimated duration of service loss the cost of damage and impacts to public safety services economic activities public health the environment and to vulnerable populations Scores were assigned for each criteria as 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) Area of service loss is scored based on extent of the geographic area that would be impacted during a disruption ranging from a neighborhood parts of a ward to one two or more wards as the most severe Duration of service loss is scored based on assumptions of the length of time needed to repair or relocate services Cost of damage is based on preliminary estimates ranging from less than $100000 to more than $1 million as most severe Impact to public safety public health and the environment is based on a qualitative assessment by District agencies of the types of services that would be impacted The impact to vulnerable populations is informed by the areas impacted and the locations with the largest vulnerable populations as documented in Section 4 of this report
RISK ASSESSMENT
Score Area of Service Loss
Duration of Service Loss
Cost of Damage
Impacts to Public
Safety Services
Impacts to Economic Activities
Impacts to Public Health
Environment
Impacts to Vulnerable Populations
3 (Most Severe) Two or more Wards gt 7 days gt $1m High High High High
2 (Moderate Severe) Ward 1 - 7 days $100k - $1m Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
1 (Least Severe)Neighborhood
(not entire Ward)
lt 1 day lt $100k Low Low Low Low
FIGURE 1 Scoring Criteria (Source Kleinfelder November 2015)
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
02INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
amp RISK ASSESSMENT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT28
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The overall functionality of a city is necessarily tied to its infrastructure much of which is either out of public view or simply goes unnoticed until it ceases to function Until now infrastructure design guidelines have been based on past weather patterns and events However those trends are changing raising the question of whether or not existing infrastructure will be sufficiently resilient in the future The following section outlines the infrastructure that were analyzed as part of this study
29
The Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of the infrastructure systems includes
bull Energy Infrastructure electric substations Information was not available to assess the natural gas generationdistribution and electrical transmissiondistribution systems
bull Transportation system Metrorail lines and stations regional railroad infrastructure roadways and Capital Bikeshare stations For road infrastructure we focused on roadways with an Average Annual Daily Trip (AADT) count of greater than 16000 this included bridges tunnels and underpasses It was assumed that impacts to roads would also disrupt bus service and cycling infrastructure
bull Water infrastructure stormwater and combined sewer collection systems including pipes outfall locations drainage areas pumping stations and the treatment plant The surface water supply source area drinking water treatment and distribution systems were not addressed since information was not available as part of the GIS database used
bull Telecommunications cellular towers The locations of AM and FM radio towers and other wireless communications towers were not available
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment of built infrastructure are summarized in Figure 2 and Map 5 Figure 2 lists the infrastructure assets that are at highest risk to flooding and extreme heat by 2020 2050 and 2080 The assets that have been exposed to flooding from historic events are also indicated in the figure Map 5 presents the location of these high-risk infrastructure assets in relation to the different Wards within the District
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT30
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 5 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
INFRASTRUCTURE MOST AT RISK
31
Infrastructure Type Name Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
E1 Electrical SubstationBuzzard Point Substation (ELP - 111 ELP - 122 ELP - 119)
Yes Yes Yes
E2 Electrical SubstationBlue Plains Substation (ELP - 128 ELP - 129)
Yes Yes Yes
E3 Electrical SubstationBenning Road Substation (ELP - 3 ELP - 103)
Yes
Roadway (gt16000 AADT) 12TH ST Expressway SW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) INTERSTATE 66 Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Whitehurst Freeway NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Benning Road NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) C ST NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Kenilworth Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Massachusetts Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) New York Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 6TH ST NW Yes YesRoadway (gt16000 AADT) 9TH ST NW Yes Yes Yes
T1 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (570 571) Yes Yes Yes YesT2 Tunnel RFK Stadium (436) Yes Yes YesT3 Tunnel Beach Drive at National Zoo (496) Yes Yes YesT4 Tunnel Capitol Crescent Trail (573) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Chain Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge (gt16000 AADT) Francis Scott Key Bridge NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Arland D Williams Memorial Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes Yes
Bridge Rochambeau Bridge (14TH ST) Yes Yes YesBridge Francis Case Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Welsh Memorial Bridge Yes Yes YesBridge Benning Bridge Yes Yes Yes
M1 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Triangle Yes Yes YesM2 WMATA Metrorail Stations Federal Center SW YesM3 WMATA Metrorail Stations Archives-Navy Meml Yes Yes Yes Yes
WMATA Metrorail Line Yellow Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Blue Silver Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Green Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Orange Yes Yes YesWMATA Metrorail Line Red Yes Yes Yes
Amtrak Line Mid-Atlantic Yes Yes Yes Yes
MARC Line PENN - WASHINGTON Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line Kenilworth area Yes Yes Yes Yes
Other CSX Line I-295 right of way Yes Yes Yes Yes
B1 Capital Bikeshare Location Georgetown Harbor 30th St NW Yes Yes Yes Yes
B2 Capital Bikeshare LocationNannie Helen Burroughs amp Minnesota Ave NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S1 MS4 Stormwater OutfallMinnesota Ave SE amp Railroad Bridge SE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S2 MS4 Stormwater OutfallNannie Helen Burroughs Ave amp Pedestrian Bridge
Yes Yes Yes Yes
S3 MS4 Stormwater Outfall49th St NE amp Nannie Helen Burroughs Road NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
W1 Wastewater Pumping Station Potomac Pumping Station Yes Yes
W2 Treatment PlantBlue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant
Yes Yes Yes
W3 Wastewater Pumping Station Main amp O Street Pumping Station Yes Yes Yes
Te1Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
COLUMBIA LODGE 1844 3RD ST NW
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Te2Cellular Radio Transmission Tower
900 V Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
With the understanding that Metrorail Line segments and stations that are underground are not sensitive to heat
Yes Yes
FLOODING HEAT
Yes Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
by
nam
eb
y na
me
NA
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sto
rmw
ater
Bic
ycle
Tele
com
W
aste
wat
er
Yes
Rai
lro
adl
ine
(tra
ins)
NA
Ro
adw
ays
(gt16
00
0 A
AD
T)E
nerg
yM
etro
rail
Bri
dg
esTu
nnel
s
FIGURE 2 Compilation of Infrastructure Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT32
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
A reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial to the safety livability and economic vitality of the region In the District energy infrastructure includes electricity natural gas and petroleum supply and distribution systems In addition there is a growing local supply of renewable energy For the purpose of this study only electrical substations were available in GIS format hence their geographic location was identified and they were ranked according to the projected climate change impacts Gas and petroleum infrastructure are also vulnerable to climate change stresses and their distribution could be disrupted by extreme events However since spatial information was not available for these infrastructure systems they were not assessed in this study
The District is served by one electric distribution utility Pepco and imports nearly all of its electricity from outside of its borders While this study focuses only on facilities within the District it is important to note that the Districtrsquos electricity is transported over long-distance transmission lines and many of which are nearing the end of their useful life Higher electricity demands particularly for cooling will further stress these systems and increase their likelihood of failure
Electric substations have been assessed to determine if their functionality could be
compromised under the studyrsquos climate scenarios Many substations are located within areas that are currently vulnerable to flooding and are anticipated to be flooded in the future Three substations located in the 100-year flood plain are subject to existing flood related building codes However without a specific assessment of current flood-proofing measures that may have been implemented we conservatively assume that these are at risk of failing
Critical energy infrastructure might also be vulnerable to prolonged periods of extreme heat Substations are designed to run for a limited time using emergency response measures and prevent customer outages should one component fail However running at emergency ratings reduces equipment lifetime so repeated extreme heat events would affect equipment durability Additional emergency response measures to reduce the ambient heat of substation equipment and prevent failures such as misting and other tactics could be deployed during extreme heat events and would reduce vulnerability
The three electric substations identified as most at-risk to flooding are the substation in Ward 8 near the Blue Plains Wastewater Treatment Plant and the Anacostia River the Buzzard Point substation in Ward 6 near the Anacostia River and the Benning Road substation in Ward 7
ENERGY
33
Transportation infrastructure is fundamental to ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods as well as enabling critical services and emergency response efforts Disruptions to transportation systems directly affect citizens and businesses During extreme events transportation systems and roadways become critical assets for evacuation and emergency service providers Public transit is also important to provide access to hospitals healthcare facilities and shelters especially for residents without access to a car The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) conducted a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment that identified classes of assets such as bridges and roadways vulnerable to change in temperature precipitation and sea level rise storm surge (DDOT 2013) This report analyzed the same classes of assets to identify those most likely to be impacted by flooding The economic and operational impacts of failure of the transportation infrastructure has been assessed in a qualitative manner as part of the risk ranking
RoadwaysMap 5 shows the high usage roads as defined by their AADT counts according to the US Department of Transportation (DOT) that were assessed to be most at-risk These roads are of particular importance for commuter and freight travel and are therefore highly consequential if impacted during a major weather event Many are also designated evacuation routes Any impacts to the road network along these segments would have cascading impacts on other critical services such as hospitals public safety as well as on commercial and business activities
This study assesses roadways with AADT above 16000 vehicles Many of these key roadways are at high risk of being impacted by flooding due to their proximity to the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers In addition sections of important interior urban roadways such as Pennsylvania Avenue and Massachusetts Avenue are at risk of flooding
Overall it is assumed that the Districtrsquos roadway infrastructure is not highly vulnerable to heat This is primarily due to the low sensitivity of roadways to heat However taking into consideration that by 2080 there could be heatwaves lasting from 95 - 12 days current standards might need to be revised to prevent buckling
TRANSPORTATION
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT34
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Tunnels Bridges amp UnderpassesAs the District is bordered by the Potmac River and bisected by the Anacostia River bridges are an integral part of all modes of the transportation system In addition to being critical routes for vehicular traffic multiple bridges are critical components of the subway and rail systems andor support bus routes
Most bridges along the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers are projected to face increased exposure to flooding impacts In this report a few key bridges such as the 14th Street Bridges7 and the Francis Case Memorial Bridge have been identified as most critical as they are part of the most heavily used roadways andor are part of the Metrorail and railroad network Tunnels that are part of the transportation network with higher roadway volumes as measures by AADT counts that are currently or will be exposed to flooding have also been identified
7 The 14th Street Bridge refers to the group of three highway bridges (Rochambeau George Mason Memorial and Arland Williams Memorial) a railroad bridge (Long) and a Metrorail bridge (Fenwick Metro Transit) that span the Potomac
35
WMATA Metrorail Lines amp StationsThe main form of public transportation in the region is the Metrorail operated by WMATA WMATArsquos rail and bus lines account for 85 percent of the public transportation in the region During peak ridership times many of the Metrorail lines are already at full capacity WMATA is in the process of upgrading six-car trains to eight-car trains to account for growing system traffic
As documented by the mapping of historic flooding Metrorail is already experiencing repetitive flooding in key locations including the Federal Triangle and Archives stations This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation Consequently many assets of the Metrorail system are identified as at-risk as early as 2020 WMATA received funding through the Federal Transit Administrationrsquos (FTA) Emergency Relief Program following Hurricane Sandy to mitigate flood risks The funding will be used to raise vent covers and make other improvements to block stormwater from entering Metrorail tunnels and also to install drainage improvements at 133 sites throughout system (FTA 2014)
For heat stress as for roadways it is assumed that current design standards (eg neutral temperature for continuous welded rail) might not be sufficient to prevent
buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080 Most of the Metrorail segments and stations in the District are underground and have cooling systems making them less sensitive and more able to adapt to increasing heat The aboveground segments that could be more vulnerable to heat impacts are the Yellow Line from LrsquoEnfant Plaza to Pentagon (this segment also crosses the Potomac River via the Yellow Line bridge) the Orange Line from Stadium Armory to Deanwood and the Red Line from NOMAGallaudet University to Brookland CUA Many of the above ground stations are in Maryland and Virginia outside of the Districtrsquos boundaries However when there are failures at these stations there are almost always service disruptions to the lines as they travel through the District This further highlights the need for cooperation among jurisdictions for future adaptation planning
RailroadRailroads represent 15 percent of public transportation and comprises the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and the Maryland Area Regional Commuter (MARC) lines (MWCOG 2015) AMTRAK is also assessed as part of the regional and national system and a portion of the CSX line is assessed for freight transportation
Railroad segments are also already experiencing repetitive flooding in key
TRANSIT
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT36
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
locations such as the Amtrak Mid-Atlantic line in the District and the CSX line in the Kenilworth area This flooding is likely to be exacerbated by increased precipitation sea level rise and storm surge Consequently many assets are identified at risk as early as 2020
For heat stress several important railroad lines are aboveground and are therefore more exposed to increased temperatures It is assumed that current design standards might not be sufficient to prevent buckling as heat stress is likely to increase significantly by 2080
Bicycling InfrastructureThe Districtrsquos extensive bicycling infrastructure including dedicated bike lanes and the Capital Bikeshare system has grown significantly in recent years Bicycling can provide valuable alternative transportation options following a disaster In New York City following Hurricane Sandy pedestrians and bicyclists represented more than half the river crossings from New Jersey to Manhattan while the subway system was shut down and roads were congested (City of New York 2013) In response some 20000 New Yorkers who usually used other forms of transportation commuted by bike In the District Capital Bikeshare stations are powered by solar panels ensuring that they can provide service even during a power
outage The modularity and ease of installing stations gives Capital Bikeshare a high level of adaptive capacity For example temporary Bikeshare stations could be set up in key locations if transit service is disrupted In light of the growing rate of cycling and its importance in providing mobility in post-disaster situations Capital Bikeshare locations at risk of flooding have been identified
37
The water infrastructure system is essential to treat and distribute potable water to residents and commercial facilities provide flood protection and collect stormwater and wastewater throughout the District During extreme weather events water infrastructure and operations can be significantly impacted This assessment covers many forms of water infrastructure including the wastewater treatment plant wastewater and stormwater collection systems
As reported in the 2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report while many of the regionrsquos drinking water and wastewater systems have made significant investments in upgrades and expansions large segments of water and wastewater pipes in the ground are 50 - 80 years old DC Water averages 400 to 500 water main breaks a year which are exacerbated by cold weather Accordingly DC Water has an extensive multi-billion dollar capital improvement program to update its aging infrastructure including replacing or repairing water mains and replacing valves and hydrants that will increase its resiliency (DC Water 2015)
Water Supply Treatment and Distribution InfrastructureThe drinking water supply treatment and distribution infrastructure in the District is owned and operated by DC Water and the Washington Aqueduct (managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers) DC Water distributes drinking water and collects and treats wastewater The Washington Aqueduct collects and treats drinking water at two plants - Dalecarlia and McMillan
These systems serve all of the Districtrsquos residents businesses institutions and government agencies The Districtrsquos water is sourced entirely from the Potomac River The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin conducts water demand and resource availability forecasts every five years Their most recent report included climate change forecasts (2015) The study concluded that an increase in precipitation could positively impact water availability and allow for meeting projected increases in demand in 2040 However it also reported that uncertainty remains and that despite an overall increase in precipitation periods of drought could impact the reliability of supply
In addition to impacts on the availability of supply the drinking water infrastructure system could be impacted during extreme weather events in the following ways
WATER
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT38
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
bull Contamination of the water supply source from polluted stormwater runoff from heavy rainfall events or from debris resulting from flooding upriver from the District
bull High-heat impacts to the unit operations in the water treatment plant
bull Flooding at entry points in the distribution system such as the air-release blow-off valves
bull Other impacts to the treatment plant under extreme weather events such as extended loss of power supply at the plant equipment inoperability or inability of plant staff to get to the plant
Stormwater Sewer and Combined Wastewater Collection SystemThe collection system for DC includes the sanitary sewer combined sewer and separate stormwater collection systems The collection systems include pipes manholes catch basins pump stations detentionretention structures and outfall structures DOEE and DC Waterrsquos sewer separation projects and stormwater management efforts are addressing localized flooding problems and water quality issues for existing conditions However the Districtrsquos collection system may be exposed to more extreme and frequent flooding conditions in the future due to the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events as well as inundation from sea level rise and storm surge
Few strategic stormwater outfalls have been identified to be at risk for flooding but more information such as the contributing drainage area to the outfall invert elevations of the outfalls stormwater pipe sizes and pipes that are above their design capacity (which were not available for this study) is required to perform a more thorough vulnerability and risk assessment It is also important to note that the storm sewer system in the District is designed to the convey stormwater for the present 15-year 24 hour storm which corresponds to 52 inches (according to NOAA Atlas 14) of rainfall Based on design storm projections developed as part of the ldquoClimate Projections and Scenario Developmentrdquo report published by DDOE the rainfall depth associated with this storm is projected to be 68 inches 71 inches and 8 inches by 2020s 2050s and 2080s respectively Therefore areas with storm sewers that are either at capacity or are already above capacity are more likely to experience more frequent and intense interior flooding driven by precipitation In addition to flooding impacts from extreme precipitation events the stormwater and combined sewer outfalls that discharge to the Potomac and Anacostia rivers and are at low elevations compared to mean sea level will also be prone to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge ldquobacking uprdquo through the piped infrastructure and potentially flooding low-lying interior areas It is recommended that the District needs to conduct detailed hydrologichydraulic modeling studies to understand the combined impacts of joint
39
flooding from sea level rise and extreme precipitation events in the future
Wastewater collected through the sanitary and combined sewer system is treated at the Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant the largest advanced wastewater treatment plant in the world with a design capacity of 384 million gallons per day covering 150 acres (DC Water) DC Water is already adapting the plant which is located at one of the lowest points in the District along the Potomac River to climate change through the construction of a seawall with top elevation of 172 feet (DC Datum) protecting against the present 500-year flood elevation of 142 feet-(DC Datum) plus three feet to account for sea level rise (DC Water 2014) In addition to direct flooding impacts the plant could also be potentially vulnerable to extended power outages
In addition to flooding the increased frequency of severe rain events could have a negative impact on water quality due to increased runoff According to the Districtrsquos 2014 Integrated Report on Water Quality Assessment8 of the 36 waterbody segments monitored for the goals of the Clean Water Act that apply to the District no waterbody monitored fully supported all of its designated uses and hence were considered as impaired The Water Quality Map (Map 6) shows the number of official pollutants that cause water quality impairment as measured from recent sampling by DOEE The areas in red orange yellow are the most impaired
in terms of water quality and pollutant loading With increased precipitation under climate change scenarios the volume of stormwater runoff (both overland and from stormwater outfalls) to abutting water bodies are projected to increase This may cause an increase in pollutant loading andor increase the number of pollutants in the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers and their tributaries
For the vulnerability and risk ranking the number of pollutants reported in water bodies as well as the runoff co-efficient per Ward were factored A higher runoff coefficient means more impervious area and a lower coefficient means lower impervious area The surface water quality in most of Wards 5 and 7 and portions of Wards 6 and 8 is already impaired considering the large number of pollutants reported in these water bodies as shown in Map 6 Since these areas also have a higher runoff coefficient they are more likely to be vulnerable to water quality impairment due to increased stormwater runoff from more frequent and intense rainfall events as a result of climate change The higher share of impervious area in these wards implies that urban stormwater runoff could be one of the major sources of water quality impairment These targeted areas have the potential for implementation of green infrastructure which will have the dual benefit of mitigating stormwater runoff volume and improving water quality from increased infiltration and filtering out pollutants
8 The District of Columbia Water Quality Assessment 2014 Integrated Report to the US EPA and Congress (httpdoeedcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesddoepublicationattachmentsIntegrated20Report20to20EPA20and20US20Congress20regarding20DCE28099s20Water20Quality20E28093202014_0pdf)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT40
02 INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
LEGENDNumber of Pollutants (Official)
5891416181921Known Flood Risk2020 Scenario2050 Scenario2080 ScenarioWater BodyDistrict of Columbia BoundaryWard Boundary
0 3000 6000
FeetLocations are approximatepound
MAP 6 Water Quality with flooding scenarios 2020 2050 and 2080 (Source Kleinfelder and DDOE DC November 2015)
Potomac River
PotomacRiver
Poto
mac
Rive
r
Tidal Basin Ana
cost
iaRi
ver
Anaco
stia
River
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copy OpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
Esri HERE DeLorme MapmyIndia copyOpenStreetMap contributors and the GIS user community
5
8
9
14
16
18
19
21
Known Flood Risk
2020 Scenario
2050 Scenario
2080 Scenario
Water Body
District of Columbia Boundary
Ward Boundary
Number of Pollutants (Official)
WATER QUALITY WITH FLOODING SCENARIOS
0 3000
Feet
6000
Locations are approximate
41
Telecommunication refers to the electronic transmission of information over distance including voice data and images Telecommunication networks are instrumental for information exchange and serve as crisis communication networks during a disaster The primary causes for telecommunication infrastructure failure during disasters are
bull Physical destruction of network components that are exposed to hazards such as flooding
bull Disruption of the supporting network infrastructure such as to the electrical distribution system
bull Network congestion
The telecommunication network as represented by AMFM radio towers cellular towers and TV towers are the rudimentary elements of the Districtrsquos communication grid which are still important channels for conveying information publicly Disruption of these communication networks could limit the publicrsquos accessibility to information through television and radio which may be used by a significant proportion of the population to receive emergency notifications
Only two telecommunication assets are identified to be at risk of flooding as documented by historic flooding These are the cellular radio transmission towers located at 1844 3rd Street NW and 900 V Street NE All remaining assets are outside
identified flooding areas for 2050 and 2080 However it should be noted that the telecommunications system is highly dependent on the energy system It is also anticipated that the system is resilient to heat and might only be impacted by 2080 when heatwaves gain in intensity and duration as system components may be subject to overheating Consequently according to available information the telecommunication system is considered to be marginally impacted by climate change but this should be revisited as more information is available
TELECOMMUNICATION
PHOTO CREDIT JOHN SONDERMAN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
03
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT44
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
The following section presents an overview of the vulnerability of the facilities used by the District to provide important social services to people and their communities Many of these community resources such as public housing and senior wellness centers are especially important because of the role they play in providing support to residents that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
45
As outlined in the following section vulnerable residents include those with less capacity to respond to disasters or who may be more sensitive to events such as heat waves For example seniors especially those on a fixed income have fewer financial resources to move should their home be damaged in a flood or they may be more likely to suffer negative health impacts during a heatwave Therefore senior housing as well as wellness centers that provide services to seniors are included as critical assets in this assessment This section focuses on the physical buildings that provide services to vulnerable populations as well as all District residents and the next section identifies the areas of the District where the largest number of vulnerable residents live
Key community resources addressed in this study include
bull District government agencies
bull Emergency services including emergency operations centers fire and police stations
bull Medical services including hospitals dialysis clinics primary care and interim care centers
bull Human services including libraries recreation centers and facilities operated by the Department of Youth and Rehabilitation Services
bull Schools and child care centers
bull Public housing nursing homes senior centers and homeless shelters
Figure 3 and Map 6 present a compilation of key community resources identified to be most at risk based on projected climate change impacts This first level assessment does not consider the specifics of each facilityrsquos building systems or flood-proofing but rather their location in areas likely to be exposed to flooding It has been assumed that all buildings have some means to cope with heat up to 2080 when substantial increase in heat wave intensity and duration would test the buildingsrsquo systems beyond the conditions they were designed to operate under Although it should be noted that buildings could be unusable in the event of a prolonged power failure during a heat wave A more detailed site-level assessment could provide additional information on adaptive capacity by identifying facilities with backup power adequate flood proofing air conditioning or passive cooling capabilities etc
The District Government has Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP plans) for all District agencies to ensure that critical services can be provided following a disaster or disruption The District also has mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring jurisdictions which help to minimize disruptions to services However a large-scale event with citywide or regional consequences would limit the Districtrsquos ability to identify alternative service providers and locations These factors have been accounted for in evaluating the potential consequence of damage to a facility
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT46
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
MAP 7 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
COMMUNITY RESOURCES MOST AT RISK
47
DEPARTMENT ADDRESS Historic 2020 2050 2080 2050 2080
DC1 Motor Vehicles Department of 2390 South Capitol Street SE Yes Yes Yes
DC2 Motor Vehicles Department of 95 M Street SW Yes YesDC3 Employment Services Department of 201 N Street SW Yes Yes
DC4 Executive Office of the Mayor1350 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes
EO1FBI Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC)
935 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Yes
EO2 Military District of Washington 103 3rd Avenue SW YesEO3 WMATA 600 5th Street NW YesEO4 DC Fire Operations Command Center 500 F Street NW YesEO5 DC DOH 77 P Street NE Yes
EO6 DCG - MPD - Public Safety Communications 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
PS1 First District Polices Station 101 M Street SW Yes Yes
PS2 Public Safety Communications Center 310 McMillan Drive NW Yes
F1 Engine 27 Station 4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes YesF2 Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 550 Water Street SW Yes Yes YesF3 Engine 7 Station 1101 Half Street SW YesH1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 50 Irving Street NW YesH2 Howard University Hospital 2041 Georgia Avenue NW YesH3 Childrens National Medical Center 111 Michigan Avenue NW Yes
Di1 Da Vita Georgetown 3223 K St NW Yes Yes Yes
Di2 Grant Park Dialysis5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Ave SE
Yes Yes Yes
C1 Unity - Hunt Place Health Center 4130 Hunt Place NE Yes Yes
C2 Unity - Southwest Health Center 850 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes
C3 Careco 11 4501 Grant Street NE Yes
C4 RHD 401 56th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS1 Extended House (Buddys Place) 6023 Clay Street NE Yes Yes Yes
HS2DCG - Fire amp EMS Dept - Minnesota Ave Station
4201 Minnesota Avenue NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
HS3 DCG - Public Library - Deanwood Kiosk62nd Street NE and Banks Place NE
Yes Yes Yes
HS4 Marshall Heights - Willis Paul Greene Manor4215 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
S1 Drew Elementary School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
S2 HD Woodson Senior High School 5600 Eads Street NE Yes Yes Yes
Cc1 Coast Guard Headquarters 2100 2nd Street SW Yes Yes Yes
Cc2 Safe And Sound Day Care Center4922 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes
Cc3 Ola C Franks Child Development Center 1310 Ridge Place SE Yes Yes
Cc4 Federal Trade Commission Child Care Center600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Yes Yes Yes
Cc5 National Office CDC 1111 Constitution Avenue NW Yes Yes Yes
Nur
sing
H
om
es
Nu1Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center
5000 Nannie Helen Burroughs Avenue NE
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sen
ior
Cen
ters
Sc1 Marshall Heights - Michaux Senior Center 3700 Hayes Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH1 Kenilworth Courts 4500 Quarles Street NE Yes Yes Yes Yes
PH2 Capitol Gateway 201 58th Street NE Yes Yes Yes
PH3 James Creek 1265 Half Street SW Yes Yes
PH4 Greenleaf 203 N Street SW Yes Yes
Ho
mel
ess
Fac
iliti
es
Hf1Southwest Community House Senior Service Center
1200 Delaware Avenue SW Yes Yes Yes
Ho
usi
ng
Yes
Pub
lic
Ho
usin
g
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sch
oo
ls
Yes
Dia
lysi
s C
linic
s
Hu
man
Ser
vice
s
Chi
ldca
reD
ept
of
Yo
uth
Reh
ab
Sch
oo
l
FLOODING
Em
erg
ency
O
per
atio
ns
Cen
ters
Po
lice
Sta
tio
ns
Fir
e S
tati
on
s
Ho
spit
als
DC
A
gen
cies
Em
erg
ency
Ser
vice
sM
edic
al S
ervi
ces
Pri
mar
y C
are
HEAT
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
FIGURE 3 Compilation of Community Resources Most at Risk (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT48
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
District agencies are critical for the administrative support to the Districtrsquos residents commuters and workers visitors and businesses Municipal buildings have the capacity to provide operational and logistical support outside of their normal functions during emergencies These include key municipal buildings such as the John A Wilson Building (Wilson Building) specific agency headquarters and emergency operation centers
Of the facilities identified as at risk the Wilson Building is considered at highest risk as the offices located there provide critical administrative and emergency communication services The Wilson Building has experienced flooding in the past and will continue to be vulnerable in the future to flooding resulting from extreme precipitation as well as riverine and coastal flooding
COOP plans have been put in place to ensure essential District agency functions continue during an emergency to protect District residents and visitors Findings from this study should be coordinated with COOP efforts to ensure that alternate locations for agencies in the case of an emergency are moved to buildings that are not located in vulnerable areas
Emergency services including fire stations police stations and emergency operation centers are vital for emergency support and recovery during and immediately following a disaster or climate change-related event Consequently emergency services should be located in areas protected from flooding The Engine 27 Station on Minnesota Avenue and the Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 facilities are among the public safety facilities most at risk Engine 27 Station is within an area that has historically experienced flooding and is projected to flood in all of the scenarios in this study Fire Boats 1 2 and 3 are stored at a pier in the Washington Channel that could experience flooding by 2020 The boats may need to be moved up-river prior to a major flood event in order to be accessible for emergency operations in the aftermath
MUNICIPAL RESOURCES EMERGENCY SERVICES amp PUBLIC SAFETY
49
Medical services encompass assets and resources associated with public health These include hospitals ambulatory services dialysis and community-based public health programs This assessment of medical services focuses on assets located in the District only it does not consider the facilities belonging to the greater regional network that are outside of District boundaries There are three hospitals considered at risk of flooding under current conditions including the Veterans Affairs Medical Center Howard University Hospital and the Childrenrsquos National Medical Center It is important to note that the three hospitals identified at risk for historic flooding are all located in proximity to each other and even if some buildings providing health services are not directly impacted by flooding flooding of surrounding streets in this area could impede access The District should further study the implications to continuity of health care and services if an extreme flooding event were to impact all three hospitals This historic flooding is most likely caused by drainage capacity issues of the stormwater system in these areas which are likely to be exacerbated by more frequent and intense precipitation events in the future Of the seven documented dialysis clinics two are at risk one in Georgetown and one in Deanwood
Human services refer here to public and privates services and resources dedicated to supporting diverse sections of the population These include the Department of Human Services (DHS) the Department of Youth Rehabilitation Services (DYRS) and other organizationsrsquo intermediate care facilities providing behavioral mental health and other forms of support to vulnerable groups Potential impacts from flooding may have significant consequences for a broad spectrum of communities that require access to these programs Public libraries recreation centers and post offices are also included as they provide gathering places and information services that enable members of the community to receive and ask for help Most of the human services facilities identified as at highest risk of flooding are located in Ward 7 near the Watts Branch of the Anacostia River
MEDICAL SERVICES HUMAN SERVICES
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT50
03 COMMUNITY RESOURCES VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT
This assessment included K-12 schools and childcare facilities including special education facilities that serve students with special needs Schools and childcare facilities are valuable community assets and their closure can be disruptive and costly for families Most of the schools and childcare facilities identified as at risk of flooding under current conditions or by 2020-2050 are located in the floodplain of the Anacostia River and the Watts Branch impacting Wards 6 7 and 8
Public housing managed by the District of Columbia Housing Authority (DCHA) provides critical affordable housing for low-income families and individuals Residents of public housing have fewer resources to evacuate or relocate if their housing is damaged and there is little redundancy in the availability of affordable units to house households that may be displaced The public housing locations most at risk are Kenilworth Courts in Ward 7 (290 units) Capitol Gateway in Ward 7 (29 units) James Creek in Ward 6 (239 units) and the Greenleaf complex in Ward 6 (493 units) Combined these developments provide 1051 housing units Greenleaf also includes a senior center and the Southwest Family Enhancement Career Center which provides job training and family support services
Senior centers and nursing homes were also assessed Due to age mobility and other health-related concerns the elderly are more sensitive and therefore more vulnerable
SCHOOLS PUBLIC amp SENIOR HOUSING SHELTERS
51
to climate change-related impacts such as flooding and heatwaves Disruptions to power supply could also create high risks for senior housing that lack backup power or have insufficient power to provide heating and cooling The Deanwood Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in Ward 7 is considered the most at-risk senior housing facility
Homeless shelters have also been assessed as they support highly vulnerable populations The Southwest Community House Senior Service Center which is co-located with the Greenleaf Senior housing noted above is at risk of flooding in the 2050 scenario While the District has emergency shelter capacity for homeless individuals and families a disruption such as flooding or power outage to even one facility could have significant consequences for the entire District
PHOTO CREDIT MISTY BROWN SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
04
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT54
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The vulnerability of the social environment is assessed in two parts ndash vulnerable population and community resources that are deemed critical to the support of vulnerable populations The latter includes a broad variety of community based organizations and facilities that were considered in Section 3 of this report Equity is an integral consideration for climate change and vulnerable populations are at increased risk They are disproportionately affected in post-disaster response and recovery and more susceptible to negative health impacts associated with a changing climate ( Melillo et al 2014) Communities that prepare for the impacts of climate change can become more resilient as they rebuild and a first step is to identify populations and neighborhoods most at risk with the metropolitan area Hurricane Katrina and its resulting desperation desolation and dislocation also brought into stark relief the intersection of natural disasters human social systems and the built environment (Shannon et al 2012) The storm and subsequent flooding dramatically and tragically exposed longstanding patterns of inequality that left some populations more vulnerable than others to the consequences of disaster It is acknowledged that anticipated outcomes of the on-going recovery efforts in New Orleans and surrounding areas will be uneven across different social units and many will never recover
Heat has been the largest single weather-related cause of death in the US since NOAA began reporting data for heat in 1988 In addition heat impacts on health are the most well understood measurable and yet preventable impacts of climate change For many simply being older obese or diabetic are risk factors for heat-related morbidity and mortality (Basu and Samet 2002) It is also recognized that those with respiratory or circulatory disease face greater physiological challenges during extreme or prolonged heatwaves (Anderson and Bell 2009) A large number of studies have characterized health responses during and following severe heat waves such as the European heat wave of 2003 (Vandentorren et al 2004) and the 1995 heat wave in Chicago
POPULATION AT RISK
55
The social vulnerability assessment has been performed to identify where the most vulnerable populations live in the District Social vulnerabilities are often more challenging to categorize and rank than those in the built environment since they are defined by a complex set of demographic economic and health factors that impact an individualrsquos sensitivity to climate change and adaptive capacity Sensitivity to climate change is based on social and biophysical aspects that might predispose individuals to being more sensitive to climate impacts such as heatwaves and flooding Adaptive capacity refers to an individuals ability to adapt and respond to the stresses caused by climate change Social indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity were derived from the
demographic and place-based indicators as reported in the Sustainable DC Plan9 10
Unemployment educational attainment (those without a high school diploma) and poverty prevalence were used as proxies for populations with less access to medical care or ameliorating living conditions such as access to air conditioning and with less financial resources to cope with disruptions These indicators affect both sensitivity and adaptive capacity Rates of obesity and adult asthma and age were used as a proxy for those less physiologically able to cope with flooding and heat and who therefore are more sensitive The methodology used for identifying the most vulnerable populations is further described in Appendix 1
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
9 ldquoSeniorrdquo as reported in US Census data (2014) for population of 65 years and above has been added the indicators from Sustainable DC as a key indicator of sensitivity to heat 10 Metrics and methodology Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol for a complete report on the methodology for determining the vulnerable population index are reported in Attachment titled Social Vulnerability and Ranking Protocol11 The Indicators are Census based Social Indicators per Wardas reported in Sustainable DC
Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Unemployment Unemployment
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Educational attainment (without HS diploma)
Poverty prevalence Poverty prevalence
Obesity
Adult asthma
Senior
FIGURE 4 Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Indicators11
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT56
04 VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
The purpose of this assessment is to provide a first step in identifying areas with the greatest number of residents vulnerable to the impacts of climate change There are other factors that more comprehensively define vulnerable populations such as adults and children who have mobility limitations or developmental disorders non-English or limited-English speakers and immigrant communities Subsequent analyses should include these factors
Map 8 illustrates the wards with the largest number of vulnerable residents and which climate impacts (heat or flooding) will likely impact each The shades of blue represent if the ward is likely to be impacted by flooding as reported in the climate change scenarios for 2020 (purple) 2050 (dark blue) or 2080 (light blue) Vulnerable populations likely to be most impacted by heat as informed by social and biophysiological indicators are illustrated by shades of orange and red for 2050 and 2080
Mapping the vulnerability rankings of the wards illustrates that social vulnerability is not evenly distributed across the city Populations at risk (as defined by a high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity) are located in Wards 1 5 and 6 with the largest populations in Wards 7 and 8 The easternmost Wards 5 6 7 and 8 are home to the largest number of vulnerable populations and are also
vulnerable to flooding Ward 4 also has large numbers of residents vulnerable to heat
The difference in population per Ward was not considered At the time data was compiled for the Sustainable DC Plan Ward 7 had the lowest population (65777) and Ward 6 had the highest (83821) Density per Ward could be an additional indicator of possible stress to flood and heat exposures by increasing the number of people effected by a particular event or disruption like a power outage and in need of emergency services
57
MAP 8 Vulnerable Populations per Ward (Source Kleinfelder February 2016)
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS PER WARD
PHOTO CREDIT ALEXANDRA HAY SUSTAINABLE DC CLIMATE CHANGE PHOTO CONTEST
NEXT STEPS
05
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT60
05 NEXT STEPS
In the Climate projections and Scenario Development report we reviewed the science to determine how climate change is likely to impact the District In this report we assess the vulnerability of the Districtrsquos infrastructure community resources and populations to those impacts and prioritized them based on the risks
61
It is important to emphasize that the climate scenarios used for this report present a combination of possible flood and extreme heat events which can be considered as ldquoprobable futuresrdquo that serve as guidance for future adaptation planning These projections are meant to be reviewed and updated as the science of climate change evolves with new tools and is informed by revised observed trends
Following the Vulnerability Assessment the team will create an Adaptation Plan to help implement some of the changes that will need to occur in the District in order to respond to the climate change projections and identified vulnerabilities in Tasks 1 amp 2 Reports
An important next step will be to combine resources and to refine the message from the District as a whole Key actions include
bull Develop the governance structure and partnerships with lead agencies stakeholders who have parallel efforts ongoing
bull Establish schedule for completion of remaining assessments noted herein while establishing metrics + evaluation approaches
bull Identify funding sources and lead agencies for remaining assessments
bull Begin discussions regarding publicpublic-private financing and detailed implementation strategies
VULNERABILITY amp RISK ASSESSMENT62
Anderson B G amp Bell M L 2009 Weather-related
mortality how heat cold and heat waves affect
mortality in the United States Epidemiology
(Cambridge Mass) 20 205-13
Basu R amp Samet J M 2002 Relation between
Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality
A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence
Epidemiologic Reviews 24 190-202
City of New York 2014 PLANYC - A Stronger More
Resilient New York Chapter 10 Transportation
Church JA PU Clark A Cazenave JM Gregory
SJevrejeva A Levermann MA Merrifield GA
Milne RS Nerem PD Dunn AJ Payne WT
Pfeffer D Stammer and AS Unnikrishnan 2013
Sea Level Change In Climate Change 2013 The
Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK and
New York NY USA
District of Columbia Department of Energy and
Environment 2015 District of Columbia Wildlife
Action Plan 2015 A Conservation Strategy for
Washington DC httpdoeedcgovservice2015-
district-columbia-wildlife-action-plan
District of Columbia Office of Planning 2015
2009-2013 ACS Key Demographic Indicators
District of Columbia State Data Center http
planningdcgovsitesdefaultfilesdcsitesop
publicationattachmentsKey20Indicators20
200920-202013pdf
District of Columbia 2012 Mayorrsquos Task Force
Report on the Prevention of Flooding in
Bloomingdale and LeDroit Park httpocadcgov
pageflood-prevention-task-force
District of Columbia 2013 Sustainable DC Plan
httpsustainabledcgovsitesdefaultfilesdc
sitessustainablepage_contentattachmentsDCS-
00820Report205083jpdf
District Department of Transportation (DDOT)
2013 Climate Change Adaptation Plan http
ddotdcgovpublicationddot-climate-change-
adaptation-plan
DC Water Capital Improvement Program 2015
httpswwwdcwatercomaboutcip
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River
Basin 2015 Washington Metropolitan Area Water
Supply Reliability StudyDemand and Resource
Availability Forecast for the Year 2040 httpwww
potomacriverorgfocus-areaswater-resources-
and-drinking-watercooperative-water-supply-
operations-on-the-potomaclong-term-planning
IPCC Scenario Process For AR5 mdash Representative
Concentration Pathways page httpsedacipcc-
dataorgddcar5_scenario_processRCPshtml
accessed March 5 2015
Federal Transit Administration 2014 Resilience
Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy http
wwwftadotgov15138_16147html
Kalkstein L S Sailor D Shickman K Sheridan S
Vanos J 2013 Assessing Health Impacts of Urban
Heat Island Reduction Strategies in the District of
Columbia Global Cool Cities Alliance
Melillo Jerry M Terese (TC) Richmond and Gary
W Yohe Eds 2014 Highlights of Climate Change
Impacts in the United States The Third National
Climate Assessment US Global Change Research
Program 148 pp Retrieved from httpnca2014
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US
National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo
OAR CPO-1 Silver Spring MD Climate Program
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2012 Hurricane Irene Service Assessment
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2014 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency
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NOAA Climate at a Glance httpwwwncdcnoaa
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Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
2015 State of the Region Infrastructure Report
Shannon Van Zandt Walter Gillis Peacock
Dustin W Henry Himanshu Grover Wesley E
Highfield and Samuel D Brody 2012 ldquoMapping
Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and
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221 29
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Alarming Lessonsrdquo in Risking House and Home
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Sustainable DC Plan 2005-2009 httpsustainable
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Stoner A K Hayhoe X Yang and D Wuebbles
2011 An Asynchronous Regional Regression Model
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Catastrophic Impacts and Alarming Lessonsrdquo in
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Policy John M Quigley and Larry A Rosenthal
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html
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AREA RESEARCH