Climate and Health Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Profile … · Assessment Profile Manaus -...
Transcript of Climate and Health Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Profile … · Assessment Profile Manaus -...
Climate and Health
Vulnerability & Adaptation
Assessment Profile
Manaus - Brazil
Christovam Barcellos (ICICT/Fiocruz)
Diego Xavier Silva (ICICT/Fiocruz)
Rita Bacuri (CPqLMD/Fiocruz)
Assessment Objectives
• To identify the possible links between climate
change - more specifically hydrological regime -
and water related diseases.
• To suggest tools for monitoring changes in river
regime and water related diseases.
• To identify social actors and strategies to
implement adaptation plans.
• To contribute as a pilot study for the Brazilian
Climate and Health Observatory
Why Manaus?
• The city of Manaus,
Brazil, is situated at
the confluence of
Negro, Amazon and
Purus rivers that
determine the region’s
hydrology, together
with the Amazon
forest that surrounds it.
Since Manaus is an important regional harbor and the main Amazonian
metropolis, the city tends to act as a shelter for groups evaded from areas
submitted to environmental stress, ethnical struggles or economic crisis.
Why Manaus?
• The water level of Rio
Negro has been a strong
regulator of city’s
economic and social
dynamics, since its
foundation. The
persistence of wooden
houses built on stilts
(palafitas) is an example
of adaptation of the local
population to the climatic
variability.
Approach to Organization
Three steps:
Health problem definition/Climate factors
Gathering and analysis of secondary data
Discussion of results with stakeholders
Assessment Methods
• The first step in our study was to
focus on one health problem. This
choice may represent a major
change in the proposed guide.
Because of the city geographical
characteristics and the present
concern of local authorities and
general public, we selected water
as a key climate issue to be
addressed. Local researchers and
authorities have participated of
this decision.
Assessment MethodsQuantitative approach
• The second step was to collect and
gather routine data for the selected
indicators (at Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro).
This activity produced a preliminary
report that was distributed among all
participants (stakeholders). We have
used time series to demonstrate the
seasonality and long term variability
of precipitation and river water level,
and to link them to the incidence of
water related diseases. GIS was also
used to identify vulnerable population
groups.
• Environmental data: Land use, altimetry, floodable
areas, river water level.
• Weather and climate: Temperature, precipitation,
seasonal and long term forecasts;
• Socioeconomic data: Census information (households,
sanitation, migration, education, income);
• Health data: Health service provision, mortality and
morbidity (hospitalization and disease notification.
Assessment MethodsQuantitative approach
Health outcomes
• Malaria incidence and hospitalization
• Dengue incidence and hospitalization
• Leptospirosis incidence
• Hepatitis A incidence and hospitalization
• Infant mortality by diarrhoea
Assessment Methods Qualitative approach
• The final activity was a
workshop during which
the preliminary report
was discussed by the
group. The report
brought evidences on
the relationship between
river water regime and
the transmission of
selected diseases but
avoided to pose an
explanation about the
causal link between
water regime and
diseases.
The explanation of the dynamics of
disease transmission was suggested by
the workshop participants.
Malaria incidence
Hepatitis A incidence
Social and
environmental
processes acting
between river water
level and disease?
Malaria: water
impoundment and flow
retention in creeks
Hepatitis: Water
contamination by
faeces
Leptospirosis in incidence and river water
level
Major Findings
• Changes in the river water level are assimilated by the inhabitants, if these variations occur within a range that does not compromise the operation of transportation systems, sanitation, water and food supply.
• Major changes, such as prolonged droughts as well as floodings, may cause the collapse of these systems.
• Both extreme climate events occurred in city during 2009, leading to a perception that climate changes are already affecting the city.
Extreme events in ManausRiver water level
Utility of Assessment & Meeting
Decision Needs • All used data (socioeconomic, epidemiological and
climate) are available for public use for free. It can be
employed in a CC monitoring system.
• Stakeholders were especially satisfied with the analysis
of health, environment, climate and socioeconomic
indicators. They were familiar with the problems
presented and felt comfortable to comment and interpret
the statistical results.
• The final report was built on reliable information and it
reflects the views of stakeholders on the current health
problems and climate scenarios. The study participants
declared that the final assessment report will be useful to
discuss adaptation strategies and to seek financial
sources for its implementation.
Major Challenges
• It would be useful to include primary data and insights from fieldwork.
Due to the limited budget and time it was not possible to incorporate
additional data.
• Stakeholders are concerned with the possibility of materialize plans
and benefits to the society. The assessment should point out project
opportunities and financial sources.
• The opinion of stakeholders varies substantially according to their
position in the institutional framework (governmental or non-
governmental, sector, political party and so on).
• The guidance should suggest methodologies of quantitative (graphs,
maps, indicators, etc.) and qualitative research (structured or semi-
structured interviews, focus group etc.). The stakeholder opinion
convergence in some aspects was difficultly achieved or even
impossible. A methodology for dealing with different points of view
would be welcome.
Vulnerability or vulnerabilities?
the different origins and vulnerabilities of deprived social groups, such as:
• Urbanized indigenous people
• Migrants from the eastern Amazon
• Migrants from other regions of the country
• traditional riverside inhabitants (ribeirinhos)
“Invasions” along the urban fringe
- Recent migrants from the eastern
Amazon
- Poor sanitation and housing
conditions
- Malaria hotspots
Houses on stilts along the riverside
- Traditional Amazonian population
- Subject to river changes and water
transmitted diseases
- More adapted to environmental
changes
Adaptation strategies for different
vulnerabilities
Adaptation strategies for different
vulnerabilities – Creek (Igarapés)
Thank you
Christovam Barcellos (ICICT/Fiocruz)
Diego Xavier Silva (ICICT/Fiocruz)
Rita Bacuri (CPqLMD/Fiocruz)
Yara, Queen of the Amazonian rivers