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Clearly it is a Bull till it isn’t and I’ve been re-iterating this -albeit Elliot Wave Theory-wise things started to look

complete- every update (Just read the conclusion of last Thursday’s daily update for example). This also shows the

limitations of EWT and why I don’t solely rely on it, but use many technical indicators, market breadth signals etc. to

tell me if a top is becoming more likely or not.1 Please read this footnote, it is IMHO very educational/ inspiring/

enlightening). Thus, the EDT-count has turned from the Bullish alternative to the Bullish preferred count as: a) the

SPX has now traded above the ideal target zone for a possible b-wave bounce I set last week of SPX2645-2656; b)

the daily charts are all Bullish and on a buy; c) market breadth is still improving and on a buy; c) TECH still prefers

that minor-5 wave. I am now looking for SPX2675-2725, with an ideal target zone of SPX2680-90. Only a break below

SPX2624, followed by a break below SPX2606 will make me seriously question if the market can reach this.

Figure 1. SPX-1-min chart. A) Micro-e of minute-v underway to SPX2675-2725. B) Only a break below SPX2624 and

SPX2606 will place thi count (major-3 at SPX2665) front and center

1 Frost and Prechter, Elliot Wave Principle, Tenth Edition 2005, page 95: “Only under the rarest of circumstances do you ever know exactly what

the market is going to do. You must understand that and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific event must be wrong some of the time. Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of using it correctly.”

A

B

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The daily Technical Indicator chart of the S&P500 continues to improve, with the RSI5 now firmly pointing back up

and overbought, while the A.I.’s non-ideal buy signal from Friday got confirmed today. Price is firmly in an uptrend

from all perspectives as it is above its 20d to 200d SMA and above all important trendlines.

Figure 2. SPX daily TI chart. TIs pointing up. Price still above 20d-200d SMA and trendlines

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The daily NAS chart shows the same bullish signals as the S&P’s except for the MACD, which is still not on a buy. The

A.I. has been on a (non-ideal) buy since last Thursday and remains on a buy. The other fly in NAS’ ointment is that

the Money Flow Index is not improving. A break over last week’s high targets based on simple symmetry $7075.

However, for now I remain with my ideal $6955 target for the NAS to complete this wave.

Figure 3. NAS daily TI chart. A.I. Buy Signal. Price back above 20d-200d SMA and trendlines. Minor-5 underway.

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To belabor the point, and for my members who trade the DJIA, and haven’t seen an update on it in a while; same

story here as for the NAS and S&P. Thus 3 indices confirming higher price ahead. Not shown here, but the micro-

count on the DJIA can be assessed as price now being in micro-5 of minute-v. Similarly to the 5th waves (albeit of

different degrees) like the NAS (minor-5 of intermediate-v) and S&P (micro-e of minute-v). Thus, the weight of the

evidence favors more upside.

Figure 4. DJIA daily TI chart. A.I. Buy Signal (non-ideal). Price well above 20d-200d SMA and trendlines.

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The S&P500’s McClellan Oscillator (MO) ended today at +23, down 7p compared to Friday’s close, and thus not

confirming today’s high. However, one day of negative divergence on the MO is by no means a “top is in” call. Also

because still more stocks are now advancing than declining. As such, the SPX-SI ([Cumulative] Summation Index of

the MO) continues its buy signal from a week+ ago.

Figure 5. SPX-SI still on a buy.

In conclusion: Since last Tuesday I’ve been calling for a bounce, and a bounce we got. Price on the S&P has now

traded above the ideal SPX2645-2656 target zone for a possible b-wave bounce, and all major indices (RUT excluded)

have strong daily charts that all point higher as the charts improve daily. Thus, as said in the weekend update and in

last Thursday’s update (I can’t repeat it enough 😉): “we should be cognizant of the fact that everything is … still

trending up as long as price continues to stay above the 20d to 200d SMAs and remains above all trendlines and/or

within EWT trend channels (like the NAS). Therefore, the market should be treated -albeit not aggressively- as still

being a Bull until price breaks down. But, as long as price remains above yesterday’s low, and last Friday’s low,

[SPX2642, 2606; respectively] the trend remains up and today the analyzed charts tell me to favor more upside over

the coming days as well.“ The target zone I am now looking at is SPX2675-2725, with an ideal zone of SPX2680-2690.

ALOHA

Soul, Ph.D.

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