Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICI 4 L USE ONLY

CiZ 2t r7-b,14

Repofl No. 8152-NAG

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

M4ADAGASCAR

MITANANUIVO PLAIN DEVELOPMiNT PROJECT

PEBRUARY 23, 1990

Infrastructure Operations DivisionSouth-Central and Indian Ocean DepartuentAfrica Region

Thi donnMwn bu a vesrted dlfÉbution md "*y be und by redp1ems omly ID the performmoe oftheu oefida dues Its mutdes msy not otherwei be dicsosed whhout Wodd Ebnk audut ston.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit - Malagasy Franc (FMg)US$ 1.00 - FMg 1,600FMg 1,000 M USS 0.62

GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATICNS AND ACRONYMS

BPPA Bureau du Projet de la Plaine d'AntananarivoBPU Bureau des Projets UrbainsCCCE Caisse Centrale de Coopération EconomiqueDAUH Directorat. of Architecture, Urbanisam and HousingDGP Directorate General of PlanningDIR Directorate of Rural InfrastructureDTP Directorate cf Public WorksEPA Etablissement Public à Caractère AdministratifFA Firaisana of AmbohimanarinaFAC Fonds d'Aide et de Coopiration (France)FIHU Infrastructure Fund for Urban HousingFIVREN Fivondronana of Antananarivo - RenivohitraFMg Malagasy FrancFOFIFA Agricultural Research CenterFTM National Geograohic DepartmentjIRAMA National Water and Electricity CompanyMA Ministry of AgricultureMEP Ministry of Economy and PlanningMF Ministry of FinanceMTMT Ministry >f Transports, Meteorology and TourismMTP Ministry of Public WorksPE Environmental Programsi Flood Control and Drainage InstitutionS2a Sewerage InstitutionS2b Solid Waste InstitutionS2c Urban Drainage DepartmentS3 Federation of Irrigation Users AssociRtionsSAM Social Accouating MatrixSEIMAD National Land Development CompanySIM Socilté Immobilière de MadagascarSPIR Service Provincial de l'Infrastructure RuraleSRPCH Service Rigional des Ponts et ChausséesUNDP United Nations Development ProgramWHO World Health Organization

Government Fiscal Year

January 1 - December 31

FOR OMaCL USE ONLY

MADAGASCAR

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPMENT PP.OJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTSPaz.

Credit and Project Summary 4 v

BACKGROUND AND PROJECT AREA

PopulatAon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Agriculture . . . . . . .. . . 2Pro3netAeaomn ......................... 3Jrban Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Institutional Framework .. . . . ..... .. . . . 4Local Governments ......... a . 444 . .*44 . S 4 * 5Previous Bank Involveuient . .... . .. . . ..... 6

Il. FLOOD CONTROL, DRAINAGE AND IRRIGATION

Technical Aspects ........................ 8History of Floods and Protective Measures . . . . . . . . 9Studios of Flood Control and Drainage . . . . . . . . 1.0

III. THE PROJECT

Cienesis ............... 12Project Objectives . . .. . .. . . ... . .. .... 13Project Description .. .a. . . . .. . ... . ..... 13Project Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Project Financing Plan *44.*4 . 4.4.4.4.ae ea e17Procurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Disbursement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

IV. IMPLEMENTATION AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

Project Implementation ................................. 22

Project Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Implementation Schedule ...................... .23Land Acquisition/Expropriations . . . .. ... . . .. . . 24Studios .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . .. 25

This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visitedMadagascar in June/July 1989. The mission consisted of Messrs. G.Tenaille, M. Benouahi, J.M. Cour, J.F. Dréau (IDA); M. Arnaud and H.Boumendil (consultants).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

(ii)

Institution Building .. .... . . . . . . . 25

Flood Control and Drainage . . 26Irrig#tion . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . . . 27Urban S nitation a27 0..0 000..2Flood Warning System . . .. ....... . . 28Land Registry . * a * 2 .8 . 8. . . 28Land Tax Office . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Urbanization of the South Plain . . . . . .. . 29

Nonitoring, Reporting and Supervision . . . . . . 29

V. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Introduction .. . . . . . . . 30

Local Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 30

Central Government Transfers . . . . . . 30Property Tax .... . ..... 31Other Revenues .. . . . 32Vater Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Cost Recovery ... .. 32Affordability . . . . . . . . . . 34Floy of Funds . . . . . . . . . ... . 35Financial Management . . . ... . 35Accounting and Auditing Requirements . . . . . 35

VI. PROJECT JUSTIFICATION - BENEFITS AND RISKS

Cost-Benefit Analysis .36

The Whole Project . . . .36

Flood Protection . .36

Drainage of the Plain South of the Mamba River .37Irrigation Rehabilitation .37

Poverty Aspects .................. . . . 38

Project Risk . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 39Impact on the Environment.. . . . . . . . . . . .39

VII. AGRDEUETSREACHED AND RECOMMENDATION .A ,O.... 42

Conditions of Credit EffectivenesJ . . . . . 42Conditions of Disbursement . . . . . ... . .43R ecommendation . . . . . . . . . 43

LIST OF ANNEXES

1. Annex 1: Detailed Project Description . . . . . . . . . . . 442. Annez 2s Detailed Cost Estimates . . . . . 513. Annex 3: Detailed Financing Plan . . . . . . . 554. Annex 4: Diabursement Schedule . . . . . . . . . 565. Annex 5: Implementation Schedule . . . . . . . . . . 576. Annex 6s Organization Charte of Local Goverrants . . . . . 587. Aimes 7s Organisation Chart of Si . . .. . . . . . . .. . 618. Annex 8t Local Governments' Finances . . a . .. . . . . . 629. Annez 9: Operating Agenci«.' Projected Accounta . . . . . . 6810. Annex 10s Assuwptions for Financial Projections . . . . . . 7111. Arnex 11 Benefits and Impacts Macro-economic and

Regional Approach ............... 7312. Annez 12: Enviroumental Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . a . . 8013. Annex 13s List of Selected Documents Available

in the Project File .. ..... . . 95

LIST OF MA?

IBRD No. 21918

(Iv)

*IITMIANXIVO PLA1N DEVELOPtENT PROJCCT

Credit and Prolect Sumiarw

Borrovers Democratie Republie of MadagascarBeneficiar:s Ministry of Agriculture, Faritany (Province) and

Iunicipality of AntananarivoAmounta SDR 23.0 million (US$ 30.5 million equivalent)Termss Standard IDA Terms

ProIect Ob1ectives

Th. overall objectives of the proposed project ore tobmprove the living conditions of the low-income populationliving in the low-lying areas of the city and la theAntananarivo Plain, and to increase the productivity of theindustries and of the farms in the Plain. To reach theseobjectives, the specific objectives of the project are asfollows:

(a) Provide a 100-year flood protection to th. suburba ofAntananarivo, as well as an efficient flood warning systems

<b) Improve, rehatilltate and expand the drainage and severagefacilities to evacuate surface runoff and seuage from thePlain under all condittone, developlng these fc%litAtesconsistently with, and in a manner fully compatible withother urban, agricultural and flood protectiondevelopmentsl

(c) Rehabilitate the irrigation system of the Ikopa Right Bank(3000 ha);

(d) Improve the performance of local governmente' revenues atthe regional level; and

(e) Strengthen the institutional framework for integrated andcontrolled development of the Plain.

Pro loct Descriition

The proposed project vould include the folloving componorest

(a) Flood protection along the Ikopa River;

(b) Flood warning system;

(c) Drainage structures on the Plain;

(d) Pumping station to evacuate vater from the Plain;

(e) Construction of an irrigation canal;

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(f) Rehabilt.ation of irrigation systems;

(g) Rehabilitation ntd expansion of the severage system;

(h) Institution building, including privatisation of municipalservices; and

(1) Studies, supervision, technical assistance and training.

Environment

The project vlll bave *' overall pê3itive environmeltai impact.It vould atm primarily et arresting degradation of the unstable, nearlydeforested ferralitic solls of the tan.ty over an arga of 16,200 ha in tbeAntananarivo Region.

lenefits

As a result of the deterioration of urban infrastructure lnAntansnarivo, there existe a strong economic justificatton for cllcomponents of the project. The project vill improve the living condition#%of the poorest population of the city and of the suburbs, and vill permit acohorent development of th$s Plain vh$ch is adjacent to the city center.

The main riaka faced by the prjoject are those derived from theeconomic situation cf the country, since the capacity of the population,particularly the urban poor, to p-y for Lmproved services depende on theéconomic enviroument. This rabk la minimized by the signe of economierecovery vhich appeared in 1988. Other risks are related to th. capacityto manage the Project. This however ts minimised through project design byprivatising part of municipal activities (severage and solid vaste), havingone coordinating agency for the flood control systen and adequate technicalassistance.

Prolect cost

The total cost of the project $s estimated at FMg 129.8 billion(US$ 68.6 million), of vhich US$ 39.1 million, or approximately 572represents the foreign exchange component.

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IcouMi.c late of Return 18Z for the whole project

Staff AuraLSal Report Antananarivo Plain DevolopmentReport No. 8152-MlAG

1BRD No. 21918

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPHMNT PROJECT

I BACKGROUND AND PROJECT AREA

Population

1.01 Madagascar's population vas 11.3 million in 1Q88 and the averagepopulation growth rate vas estUiated at 2.8% p.a. ln the early 1980's. Thispopulation le unevenly distributed vith a high concentration in the centralhighlands. In 1960, the urban population reprosented oaly 112 of thecountry's population, however, by 1988, this proportion increased to 182.At present, Central Antananarivo (Antananarivo Renivohitra) only has 800,000Luhabitants, but in total 1.5 million inhabit Antananarivo's economrcinfluence area. In the project area, the distinction between urban sad ruralpopulations is administrative and virtually meaningless. Urban and ruralsettlements are interconnected, as moet farmers have clos. ties with urbanlife sad, in most rural households, the principal source of income la fromemployment in the city.

ccOn=nilc Situation

1.02 Madagascar9s Gross National Product (GNP) per capita vas about US$180 Ln 1988. Madagascar has experienced a long-term decline in per capitaproduction and income, videspread detericration of its physical sad socialinfrastructure, and extreme scarcity of financial resources, compounded witha heavy debt burden. Since 1982, the Government embarked on stabilisationand structural adjustment policies supported by four IDA adjustmentoperations. While significant progress has been achieved in restoringmacro-economic equilibrium, real GDP growth has remained belov populationgrovth. Nonetheless, based on data sad information through June 1989,there has been an evident economic recovéry from about mi,i-1988. Availableindicators suggest GDP growth in 1989 of at least 42, the first increase inper capita income in two decades. It is a clear indication that, at longlast, economic recovery is underway.

1.03 Household surveys and national accounts show that average percapita income has continuously declined over the last two decades at anaverage rate of 32 per year and that urban areas have been more severelyaffected than rural areas. The situation is vorse in the Antananarivometropolitan area, where it is estimated that the per capita expendituredecreased at an average rate cf 82 per year over 1978-1985. A revival ofthe dynamism of Antananarivo's economy requires not only an improvement inthe macroeconomic enviroument sought after in the ongoing adjustmentprocess, but also an enabling envirornent which necessarily involves theresumption of private investment vithin a well-defined strategy of expansionand organization of the urbanized area, modernization of agriculture La thehinterland of Antananarivo, and intensification of urban-rural exchanges, asvell as the mastering of periodic flooding.

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1.04 Th. cily of Antananarivo vas originally bullt on hills located atthe eastern border of the Plain of Antananarivo (seo map IBRD No.21918).The flat are, (about 180 Km2) et the foot of the hills la a floodplain forthe Ikopa River and its tributariesa the Mamba, the Sisaony and theAndromba. The Antananarivo Pl-an han an altitude of approximately 1,250 m.The annual average precipitation ls 1,500mm and the rainy season extendtfrom November to March. The mean annual temperature ls 18 degroes Celsius.This plain la subject to serious periodic flooding vhich occurred repeatedlyIn 1954, 1959, 1977 and 1982. In the city, these floode diarupt normaleconomuc activities and, on the plain, they demolish houses and otherstructures, destroy the rlce crops and may cause los of human l.fe.

Aaricultur

1 05 Out of a total cultivated area of roughly three million ha La thecountry, 1.2 million ha are uaed for paddy. Irrigation syste_ serve about720,M00 ha, nearly all of lt to produce paddy, of which 500,000 ha oftraditional schemes vith some form of vater control. The remaning 220,000ha consist of 80,000 ha of large projecta which have been recentlyrehabilitated, and around 140,000 ha of some 300 small projecta, of whichabout 10 ,000 ha have recently beon rehabilitated. At prosent, the key IssueLn this subsector iL the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure due totne lack of budget funds and foreigu exchange for inputs and equipment,togethor vith inadequato management. Although the traditional paddy fieldshave fewer problems, their yields hav" dropped because of reduced supply ofInputs, and negative price and market incentives.

1.06 Paddy production in Madagascar, vhich grew 52 per year in the1960. and increased from 1.2 million tons in 1960 to almost 2.2 million tonsln 1970, did not grov thereafter, In spite of the growth of population andthe labor force. Hadagascar, a net exporter of rice until the early 1970.,thereafter imported increasing quantities, reaching a p.ak of 350,000 tonsIn 1982, over 20Z of total consiumption. S_nco then, reduced rice importereflect changed policy but aise an overvhelming foreign exchange shortages183,000 tons vere imported in 1983, 110,000 tons in 1984, 200,000 tons in1986 and 112,000 tons in 1989.

1.07 Although most of the Plain is lov-lying and subject to frequentflooding, it ls one of the oldest rice-producing areas in Madagascar, andrice in groen in virtually every possible area of the Plain. (ut of a totalof 18,000 ha, the area for rice i estimated at about 13,100 ha, 4,000 ha atmost being currently unused because of drainage problems. taras are siallsabout 0.5 ha on the left bank and 0.80 ha on the right bank, vith an averageof 0.6 ha, vhile 1.2 ha vould b. ne.ded for family self-sufficiency, underpresent irrigation conditions. Farms als are highly fragmenteds 10/15 plotsper family is not uncomon. Production methods on the Plain are reportedlyamong th. most sophisticated La Madagascar, vith most farnmers usingfortilizer and proper cultivation techniques, and vith ready availability ofinputs and credit. Hovever, because improper irrigation, flood protectionand drainage systems, current paddy yields vary from 1.4 to 3.0 tons per ha

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(1.9 ton/ha on average), according to hydrological and ramEfall condltions.Two variettes of paddy are commonly usedt Ovary vakiembiaty" during therainy season, from October to April, and "vary alohaU ln the dry season.

1.08 Research as undertaken from 1966 onwards on optimal farmingsysteus for th& Plain. It appears that double cropping of rice 18

problematie, because the temperature La too low for rice from April to June.However, double cropping of rice vith vegetables or cereals such as wheat ormaize offers good potential. After the rainy season, cultivation of vheatand vegetables, called n off-season ', has increased rapidly dvsring recentyears on selected soils vith good wator retention and a shallow vater table.The extension service in the Plain is probably st present one of the mostintensive ones in Madagascar, but it could no doubt still be improved.Research on new varieties and nev farming system has given excellentresults, since the farmers of the Plain are relatively receptive toextension advice and to improvements ln supply of inputs and credit.

1.09 Major flood control and drainage vorks offer good potential forincreasing agricultural production by avoiding losses of crope due to floodsor rains, bmproving vater control in existing rice areas and bringing newmarshy lande under cultivation <about 205 ha). The increase in production,brought about by flood protection sad rehabilitation of irrigation anddrainage systema, la estimated at 600 kg of paddy per ha, at least. Inaddition, measures to lmprove farming patterns could Lucrease production byas much as 2.0 tons per ha (1.3 ton/ha on average). An AgrieulturalExtension Pilot Project us appraised by IDA in Auguat 1989 and vould coverth. Aitananarivo Plain.

Urbaa Develovoent

1.10 Vith the grovth of the Antananarivo city and suburbe at about 4X ayear, and despite regulations against it, the southern part of the low-lyingfloodplain has been increasingly developed, most of the tlme with low-standard dwellings lacking modern infrastructure. A recant anrvey shows thatabout 135,000 people live La the Plain, between the hille and the IkopaRiver, South of the 67ha (see Hop IBRD No 21918), about 53,000 in Isotry and82,000 in the Southern part of the Plain. Stuce 1982, the population growthhas been 3.12 to 3.42. Due to financial constraints, this development hasbeen roalised more by crovding into the existing dwellings (600 inhabitantsper ha) than by construction of new housings from 1983 teo 1988, theconstruction growth msu on_y 12 per year.

1.11 In 1920, when the railvay vas completed, the low-lying areabetween the Zoma Market and the station vas filled ln sad developed forhousing and services, according to a coherent plan. Nothing vas done forindustrial activities which developed anarchically in the Plain along theexisting roads. The 1954 Urban Master Plan, prepared by Messrs. Dorian andRasafandriamihango, proposed to fill in the Plain betveen the hills and abeltway designed in the middle of the Plain. This master plan vas approvedbut not systematically implemented, probably because the coet of filling (1to 2m) seemed high. Nevertheless, after the disastrous flood of 1959,theSociete Immobiliere de Madagascar (SIM) carried out a housing program in

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Ampefiloha, near Lake Anosy, a8 part of a systematic development of thePlain. Another urban operation vas carried out vith 67 ha, filling in thePlain to an elevation of 1249.20 meters above sea level. This level vascalculated to avoid submersion by rainvater falling vithin the dikes, butdid not assure protection against flooding due to breaches of the dikes.

1.12 Another Urban Master Plan vas elaborated ln 1974, but i_ vas notapproved or implemented. It was revised betwoen 1980 and 1982, with the holpof the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The latest master plan,prepared by consultants AURA-Groupe Huit, proposed to prohibit aiyconstruction on the Plain, considering a future development based on severalsuburban centers. Since that, building licenses ln the Plain have beensystematically rejected, but this is not significant since building licensesare requested for only 10 of the constructions.

1.13 Land registry vas implemented from 1936 to 1944, but Lt has notbeen updated since then. Transfers of property are les. frequent than urbangrowth vould lead one to believe. This is due to the fact that more than60S of households Ln the Plain are tenants and that properties aremaintained for generations in the same family, thus limiting thesetransfers. Transfers are rarely registered at the land registry office, butvery often legalized at the 'FiraisanaO office (see para. 1.22). Since landtaxes cannot be based on the out-of-date land registry, fiscal servicesperiodically carry out surveys of built and non-built properties, presentlyevery three years.

Institutional Framevork

1.14 At present there is no central Govermemnt institution vithsufficient authority and capacity to direct and manage development of theAntananarivo Plain. Authority is fragmented, and the technical andfinancial capacity of the various institutions is insufficient to deal vithan lntegrated development of all the sectors Lnvolved ln the AntananarivoPlain. Flood protection of the Plain scems to be the only common vorry ofthe various institutions. At present, the institutions involved in oraffected by a flood protection project of the Antananarivo Plain, range fromvarious ministries through specializsd, state-owned enterprises to localgovernment units. The lmplementation of a flood protection project vouldhave morne mpact on a great range of activities In all of theseInstitutions. A quick review of these institutions followe below.

1.15 The overall coordinating body for development programs is theMinistry of Economy and Planning (MEP). It reviews investment programs,sets priorities and coordinates the $mplementation of the approved program.HEP initiated and supervised several major preinvestment studies which hadan lmpact on several sectors.

1.16 The Ministry of Finance and Budget (MF) is responsible for thefinancial aspects of development programs. The Ministry of Health overseeshoalth aspects of any development vork. The Ministry of Industry, Energy andMines in responsible for developing vater supply policy, assessing vaterresources and providing general guidance to vater management undertakings.

1.17 The Ministry of Public Works (NTP) i8 responsible fort

(a) urban development planning, design and construction ofdrainage structures and construction supervision,through the "Directorate of Architecture, UrbanPlanning and Housing" (DAUH).

(b) flood control, dike maintenance and public worksconstruction, through the uDirectorate of Public Works"(DTP). In particular, DTP controls and operr in onegate on the Antananarivo Plain.

1.18 The Directorate of National Meteorology of the Ministry ofTransport, Meteorology and Tourisi (NTMT) collects and manages hydrologicaland meteorological data. The Directorate of Rural Infrastructure (DIR) ofthe Ministry of Agriculture (MA) is responsible for irrigation andagricultural drainage of the Antananarivo Plain. It also controls andoperates the Tanjombato Dam and the Andriantany Canal (built at the end ofthe l9th century for irrigation), and some of the flow control gates betweenthe irrigation channels and the rivera.

1.19 Two State-owned enterprises are involved in the secto-s

(a) JIRAMA (Jiro Sy Rano Malagasy - Power and Vater ofMadagascar) is responsible for construction and operation ofpower and vater facilities, carries out all public utilityoperations, and owns and operates all urban vater supplysystems. JIRAMA performs engineering studies and supervisesutility construction projects.

(b) SEIMAD (Housing Corporation of Madagascar) implements landservicing and housing projecta. It performa studies,supervises construction, manages development projecta, buys,rents and sells real estate, and constructs and manageshousing projects.

L"cal Goveruments

1.20 Faritanv (province) of Antananarivo is comprised of 19mnmicipalities (Fivondronana). The provincial branches and equipment ofeach ministry are under the Faritany's authority. The Faritany has theresponsibility of operating and maintaining publicly-owned structures on itsterritory. However, financial and staff constraints serioualy limit theFaritany's ability to assume responsibility for all structures in publicownership.

1.21 Fivondronana (municipalities) differ in human resources andorganisation depending on the size of the municipality and itsorganisational history. Recently-established municipalities haveLnsufficient human resources and lack an appropriate organizationalstructure. All municipalities lack sufficient financial resources. The

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best equipped is Fivondronana Antananarivo-Renivohitra (FIVREN), the capitalcity of Madagascar.

1.22 Firaisana (districts) keep records of the population (birtbsand deaths), and are responsible for tax collection. FIVREN has sixFiraisana.

1.23 Fokontanv (nelghborhood-level-units) are the lowvst-levelpolitical units. FIVREN has 189 Fokontany each having about 3,000 persons.

1.24 Administratively, the project area falls mainly vithin FIVREN.Irrigation vorks to the North of the NMmba River are located vithin theFivondronana of Ambohidratrimo and Avaradrano. Some flood control vorks onthe loft bank of the Ikopa River lie vithin the Fivondronana ofAtsimandrano, the Firaisana of Soavina, Ampitatafika and Andranonahoatra.Most of the project vorks are on the Firaisana of Ambohlmanarina, on a hillemerging from the Plain. This Firaisana is included in FIVREN but has anautonmous financial status.

Previous Bank Invol'rent

1.25 During the last decade, IDA, UNDP, the World HealthOrganization (WHO) and the French Caisse Centrale de Coop&ration Economique(CCCE) played significant roles in the urban development, vaterdistribution, health and agriculture sectors. IDA was involved in theAntananarivo Vater and Sanitation Project (Credit 1002-MAG, signed on May 8,1980, for US$ 20.5 million). The project included extensions to water supplysystes and provision of maintenance equipment, rehabilitation andextensions of severage and drainage systems, improvement to solid vastecollection and disposal, and training for JIRAMA amd municipality staff. TheCredit vas closed on June 30, 1986, and the Project Completion Report vasissued in July 1989.

1.26 On the vater supply side, JIRAMA implemented this componentefficiently and relatively on time. The project vas successful in addressingdeficiencies in water availability, tariff policy and financial management.On the drainage and sanitation side, the bad performance of the localconsulting firms recruited, together vith the complexity of the Malagasyprocurement procedures, led to long delays which finally jeopardized theentire component. Only some urgent vorks vere realized and seven milliondollars was cancelled on June 30, 1985. Nevertheless, the planned drainageand sanitation component vill be reactivated, combined with flood control,under the proposed project. The reviev of the existing studies, carried outfor its preparation, led to major revisions and better coordination betweenthe various components of the project.

1.27 In 1984, the Association approved the First Urban Project(Credit 1497-MAG, signed on July 3, 1984, of US$ 12.8 million), forAntananarivo and Toamasina. The project provided basic infrastructure,particularly in Isotry and Anatihazo on the fringe of the Plain. The projectals addressed the municipalities' deficiencies by emproving financial

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management and property tax administration. The project is being implementedrelativoly vell, albeit vich some delay.

1.28 During preparation of the Vater and Sanitation Projeet, theGovernment requested including a flood control component in the project,composed of several hydraulic works and an erosion control program ln thecatchments of the Ikopa River and its subsidiaries. Since these works verenot supported by any fe.aibllity study, Ba-D staff auggested thatconsideration be given to the f:nancing of a global study hich vould firstreview all the Ldeas and studies already done on this subject, and justify,among several alternatives which hydraulic worka had to be constructed.F£nally, it vas agreed at appraisal of the Vater and Sanitation Project thatthis atudy vould not be included ln the project but vould be the subject ofa separate Technical Assistance Project, financed by an engineering credit(Credit 1086-NAG, signed on October 1, 1981, of US$ 2.3 million).Consultants SCET Agri-DINIKA carried out the studies and reviewod thedrainage studies already prepared under the Water and Sanitation Project.The studies vere completed in November 1986 and the credit vas closed onDecember 31, 1986. These studies are the basis of the proposed project.

1.29 The Forests Management sad Protection Project (Credit No 1878-MAG, of SDR 5.1 million, signed on March 23, 1988), aima at preventingfurther degradation of natural forests and promoting private sectorinvolvement ln reforestation sad wood processing. This project includes16,200 ha in the Antananarivo Region and, therefore, yill have some ImpactLn reducing the flooding from the Ikopa sad Mamba rivera. The NationalAgriculture Research Project, approved on June 15, 1989, vill help FOFIFAdevelop nev strains of paddy, as vell as improved cultivation techniques. Assaid above, an Agrieultural Extension Pilot Project vas appraised ln August1989 and both projecta vould cover the Antananarivo Plain.

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II. FLOOD CONTROL. DRAINAGE AND IRRIGATION

T btcenal Asiecte

2.01 Depending on the level of flood protection provided by thevarious structures and the adequacy of their maintenance, the rivera haveinundated the floodplain at various intervals (in 1959 for example) and, atother times rainvater falling vithin the protected area cannot be evacuatedand causes flooding (for example in 1982). Flood conditions areparticularly devastating on the Antananarivo Plain because the followingfactors aggravate the flooding problems:

(a) The Ikopa River is constrained in a stable rock bed atBevomanga, at the downstream end of the Plain, whereerosion cannot increase the gradient significantly.This hampers evacuation of vater from the Plain;

(b) The heavy silt load is filling up the river bed on thePlain. The numerous islets, sand banks, vegetaticn inthe shallow waters and mmn-made structures are sl<itngdown the flow of vater on the Plaing

<c) Lack of adequate maintenance also contributes to theprobleme. Repair of the dikes would reduce the riak ofbreachesg

(d) During the rainy season, gravitational flow of runoffvater toward the river at Antananarivo is oftenimpossible, because the river bed La above the level ofthe flood plain; and

(e) Floode on the Plain can flush back sewage to the city,creating hazardous sanitary conditions vithin low-lyingareas of the suburbe.

2.02 The flood protection problem cannot be solved without at theame time solving tLe problems ofs

(a) improvement of the dikes protecting the plain;

(b) retention and evacuation of the rainvater collected assurface runoff from the catchments on the hills andPlain;

(c) evacuation of vaste vater and sevage from the city andPlain;

(d) regulation and management of the river vater forirrigation purposes on the Plain; and

(e) reforestation and soil conservation in the Ikopa Riverwatershed.

9-

1istorv of Plooed nd Protective Measures

2.03 Major f loode devastated the Antananarivo Plain in 1954,1959, 1974, 1977 sad 1982. In 1959, the dike on the right bank of the Ikopavas breached la several locations, 20S of the dvellinge of tho suburbe vereflooded and destroyed and the Plain vas under 2 meters of vater for severalmonths. The 1977 flood caused major damage to the badly maintained dikes.In addition to breaches on the Ikopa dike, a dozon breaches vere opened onthe Siseony dikes and the Mamba dike vas breached at Laniera. About 16,000persons vere affected, large areas of the city vere flooded, and animportant part of the rice crop vas lost. In 1982, the fl_àd vas due to therainvater, collected on the hills and the Plain, vhich could not beevacuated because of the flood level In the Ikopa River.

2.04 The firet recorded dlke construction dates from the 16thcentury wven the objective vas to give some protection from frequent floodeto some cultivated lands. In the 18th century, major systematic dikeconstructions vas undertaken to protect the rice paddies on the AntananarivoPlain, sad these dikes provided some protection until the 20th Century. TheAndriantany Canal vas built in the 19th century for the purpose ofirrigation and drainage of th. rice fields. Other canals and drainage vorksvere cons ructed in 1914 and 1932. In 1927, a diversion dam vas constructedat Tanjombato, to properly feed the Andriantany Canal. Folloving the 1959flood, the Goverament decided to execute a multi-phase dike constructionprogram. Only the first phase of this program, consisting of a nev dike onthe Ikopa River, vas actually implemented. This dike vas completed ln 1964.Although the prelUminary engineering vork for the second phase vas completedin 1965, it has never been constructed.

2.05 Other flood protection measures in the 20th century haveincluded:

(a) construction of two dams (Teiascmpaniry and Mantasoa)to regulate floods at the upetream catchment of theIkopa drainage basin; sud

(b) lovering of the river bed at Bevomanga and Tendro byblastiug the rocks. lovever, a very amall part of thehuge undertaking required vas actually impl«emnted.

Although these measures helped to regulate river flove and accelerate thedischarges at Bevomanga and Tendro, they have fallen short of solving theflood problem.

2.06 Institutionul probleus vere one of the main causes of theflooding of the Antananarivo Plain in 1982. Some of the gates vere operatedby the Minustry of Public Works and others by the MNiistry of Agrieulture.VWhen the Ministry of Public Works decided to close the gates as a preventivemeasure against flooding, the Ministry of Agriculture still kept others openfor irrigation purposes. When ail gates vere finally closed, most of thePlain vas under 2 meters of vater, and some of the suburbe wvre aleoinundated.

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Studles of Flod Control and Drainait

2.07 Many comyrehensive flood protection plans have been proposedincluding the Carle Report (1914), the Coursia Project (1931), and theFontaine 'Plan (1957) but they have not been implemented. Follovingcompletit of the dike in 1965, the Goverrment docided to stop impl.mentingthe earlier multi-phase dike construction program. At that time, it becamaapparent thats

(a) An integrated multi-sector approach to planning vasrequired to optimize investments because the solutionsare inter-dependent; and

(b) The nature, compatibility and feasibility of variousdevelopment plans vill depend on what protectivemeasures are adopted for flood control.

2.08 SOGREAH (France) vas selected in 1966 to prepare a feasibilitystudy. This study, completed in 1968, recommended construction of a seriesof structures costing an est$mated FMg 13 billion to provide floodprotection to both urban and rural areas, to lmprove surface runoff and toirrigate agricultural land. This program vas not implemented and thedetailed engineering vas not carried out.

2.09 The 1974 flood gave a new impetus to developing floodprotection measures. In the meantime, conditions had changed and earlierstudies could not be applied to these nev conditions. The population of theAntananarivo area had doubled since the last dike construction in 1964. Theinrban expansion paralleling this population increase vas unplanned anddisorganized, and hundreds of dwellings had been constructed illegally onlov-lying areas of the flood plain. This rapid expansion meant that eventhe 1968 SOGREAE study had become somewhat outdated by 1975.

2.10 The study of the Plain of Antananarivo (para. 1.28), carriedout under a Technical Assistance Project (Credit 1086-MAG) aimed at defininga technically coherent, economically justified and financially feasibleinvestment program for the Plain of Antananarivo. The study foeused onflood protection and agricultural devt!-rment aspects. In 1981, the DGP(Direction Generale du Plan) contracted DINIKA (Madagascar)ISCET-Agri(France) to carry out this preinvestment study. The DG? vith the technicalhelp of Mamokatra (Madagascar)iEuroconsult (Netherlands) supervised theconsultants' vork. The final report vas completed in November 1986.

2.11 SCET/Dinika considered numerous development alternatives forthe Antananarivo Plain, c-mbining various levels of urban protection andagrieultural development. The selected alternative has the follovinggeneral characteristicas

(a) The right bank dike of the Ikopa will be rehabilitatedand raised to be able to contain a flood vith afrequency of one in 100 years. This vill protect thelow lying areas of the city and the suburbs of

- il -

Antananarivo. The diacharge of floode even morepoverf al than this vill b. directed through the floodplain on the loft bank of the Ikopa River, whech teaparsely populated, to the main river channel about Sor 10 km downstresm; and

(b) The surface water from the hills and Plain, and thevaste vater and sevage from the city vill be collectedin open channels and basins. This vill be carriedthrough the Plain to the northern corner of theprotected area of the plain. Then the water vill becarried by gravitational flow in an open channel on theright bank of the Ikopa down to a point just downstreamof Bevomanga where it vill join the main river.

2.12 Under the Vater and Sanitation Project (Credit 1002-MAG), theNinistry of Public Works aise conducted studies which promoted the idea thata pumping station should be installed in the northwest corner of theprotected area of the Plain. This pumping station vould evacuate thecollected rain runoff and the vaste vater from the Plain through thenorthern dike into a channel which vould carry it to the Mamba river. Thelife-cycle cost and th, security of this technical solution has beencompared to the gravitational solution and the pumping station vas finallyfound economically more justified than the gravity canal.

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III. TUE PROJECT

3.01 In October 1984, lt vas proposed that the drainage vorks ofthe Vater and Sanitation Project (Cr. 1002-MAG) together vith the FloodControl project be implemented jointly under a project called DevolopmentProject of the Antananarivo Plain. The SCET Agri-DINIKA contract vas amendedto include the review of the drainage studies carried out under the Vaterand Sanitation Project. A preparation mission, lncluding representatives ofthe French 'Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique" (CCCE), visitedMadagascar in January 1988 and recomended to carry out additional economieand financial studies. The Government agreed and, since Credit 1086-MAG hadbeen closed on December 31, 1986, the Government requested a PPF on February24, 1988. IDA approved this PPF by letter dated May 26, 1988, for a totalamount of US$ 650,000. An extension to US$ 1,100,000 vas granted on January12, 1990.

3.02 The purpose of the PPF vas to finance studies almed atupdating and completing studies already carried outs

(a) Project cost. Cost estimates established in 1986 vereupdated.

(b) Alternatives. For the irrigation component, fivealternatives vert reviewed and evaluated. All vere rejectedbecause the savings vere negated by a lover level of service,and this vas deemed unacceptable. For the irainage componont,one alternative vas proposeds instead of duplicating theAndriantany Canal, it vas proposed to enlarge the C3 canalinitially designed for the drainage of lov areas in order toevacuate stormwater simultaneoualy from both urbanized andnon-urbanized areas (see map IBRD No.21918).

(c) Institutional study. The report issued in 1986 vas updatedand a statute vas proposed for the "Etablissement Public" tobe created for operation and maintenance of the flood controlsad dra'.uage facilities.

(d) Economie analysis. Internal rates of return vererecalculated for every component and for the project as awhole.

(e) Study of local finances. Its purpose vas to assess thecapacity of the local governments involved to contribute tothe cost of the project and to operation and maintenance.

(f) Urban-rural exchanges. Its purpose vas to assess thefinancial capacity of the households of the region, andparticularly of the Plain.

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(g) Urbanisation Structure Plan. The report reviewed how theproject would allow the urbanization in the southern part ofthe Plain. In this ares, the report proposed to include ln theproject primary roado, retention ponds and drainage canals,and explored the vartous instltutional, urban planning andcost recovery issues involved.

Prolect Objectives

3.03 The overall objective of the proposed project ls to iuprovethe living conditions ef the low-income population living ln the low-lyingareas of the clty and in the Plain. Speciflc project objectives are (1) tocreate an enabling environmont for the resumption of private lnvestment andeconomic growth ln the Antananarivo metropolitan are; (Ili) to consolidatethe finauncial snd managerlal development of the municipalities, alr.adyundortaken under the Firet Urban Project (Cr. 1497-MAO); (iii) to set up aninstitutlonal framework for efficient operation and maintenance of thestructures and faclltles provided by the proposed project; sad (iv) to makepossible an lntegrated urban and agrieultural development on theAntananarivo Plain.

3.04 To reach these goals, the physical objectives of the projectare as followss

(a) Provide a 100-year flood protection tO the suburbs ofAntananarivo, as vell as an efficient flood warnlngsystema

(b) Improve, rehabilitate and expand the drainage andseverage facilities to evacuate surface runoff andsewage from the Plain under all conditions, developingthese facilities consistently with, and in a mannerfully compatible with other urban, agricultural andflood protection developments;

(c) Rehabilitate and expand the irrigation system of theIkopa Right Bank (3000 ha).

Prolect Deserlution

3.05 The main foatures of the proposed project are as follows (seemap IBRD No 21918)s

I. Flood Control

(a) Provision of flood prtoectlon consisting ofrehabilitation and construction of dlkes, andimlrovement of the main river beds (i) levelling thedikes near Anosisato and raising the dike along theSisaony River; (Il) raising the level and reinforcementof the existing dike on the right bank of the IkopaRiver; (III) raising the level and shaping the dike

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slopes of the existing dike on the left bank of theMImba River; (iv) construction of a new dike betweenthe Nbmba Dike and Soavimasoandro; and (v) constructionof platforms for resettlement of people to be relocatedunder the project;

(b) Implementation of a flood warning system consisting of (i) construction of 4 hydrometric stations withteletransmission and access roads; (i) rehabilitationof the Antelomits Station; (ili) equipping of 3 relayradio stations; and (iv) provision of equipment andvehicles, and rehabilitation of the existing office ofthe central station;

II. Dratnaoee

(c) Construction of drainage structures on the Plain,including (i) dredging and enlarging the existingAndriantany Canal, which vill be used oaly fordrainage; (ii) construction of two retention ponds;(iii) construction of a drainage canal to the pumpirgstation (canal d'amen&e); and (iv) construction of adrainage canal along the lowest part of the Plain(canal 03);

(d) Construction of a pumping station to evacuate thecollected rain and vaste vater from the Plain to theNamba river, including provision and installation ofhydraulic, hydromechanic and electric equipment;

III. Irritation

(e) Construction of a new irrigation canal of 15.7 km (tieAndriantany Canal becoming exclusively a drainagecanal);

(f) Rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage canals, anddikes for 2910 ha on the right bank of the Ikopa River,to the South of the Mamba River as vell as to the North(Laniera Scheme);

IV. lrba Sanitation

(g) Severage consisting of the rehabilitation and expansionof the existing severage system, including (i) theconstruction of new severs and collectors in Isotry,Tsaralalana, Analakely and Antanimena; (ii) pumpingstations; (iii) rehabilitation of the two pumpingstations of Isotry and the 67 ha; and (iv) houseconnections;

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(h) tmprov.m«nt of the exlsting composting plant congistingof: (i) construction of a reception pit of 300 m3; (ii)installation Pr a veighing station; (iii) constructionof a concrete pavement on the existing fermentationares; and (lv) construction of a control station andimprovements of the existing building;

V. South Plain

(i) Improved drainage system in the southern part of thePlain includingt (i) construction of 2 retentton ponds;(ii) construction of an overflow on the AndriantanyCanal; (iii) construction of the Southern part of theC3 drainage canal; and (iv) primary roadi;

VI. lasttution Buildina

(j) Updating of land registry for the Antansmarivo Region(55 km2), through the provision of equipmont lacludingtopographic equipuent, office equipment and vehiclesg

(k) Strongthening of the Land Tax Department, through theprovision of equipment, a mini-computer and vehicles,and technical assistance;

C1) Creation of an authority to manage the hydraulicfacilities of the Plain, and assistance to the publicutilities responsible for operation and maintenance ofthe severage system, for solid vaste collection anddisposal, for operation of the stormwater system andfor the irrigation usera' associations;

VIIX *Consultatts Services

(m) Studiess

(i) sewerage studies;

(ii) solid vaste study, to optimize collection andtreatment;

(iii) final design of drainage canal C3;

(iv) urbanisation study for the southern Plain;

(v) watershed management plan;

(vi) tax burden study; and

(vit) agriculture development program for theAntananarivo Region.

_ 16 -

(n) Supervision of work5; and

(o) Technical assistance and training.

A detailed description of the project ls given in Annex 1.

Prolect Cost

3.06 The total cost of the project la *stimated at FM8 129.8billion, US$ 68.6 million, of whlch US$ 39.1 million, or *pproximately 57S,represents the foreign exchange componsnt. Base coat eattimtes are *xpressedln prices as of Decomber 1989. This cost inclutdes refinancing of the IDAProject Proparation Facility (PPF) of US$ 6S0,000, which vas approved on May26, 1988 for project preparation, snd it extension to US$ 1,100,000 whichvas approved on January 12, 1990. Coste of vork vert entimated on the basisof final design& for flood control, irrigation sad drainage componunts.Drainage canal C3, the urban sanitation component sad drainage of the SouthPlain were estimated on the basts of prolmtinary design*. Since theGovernment has determmued that good sund services procured under the projectvill be subject to taxation, the total cost includes customs duties sndinternal taxes amouating to US$ 10.2 million (15.0S). The full cost of landacquisition for a total of 153 ha s tancluded as a Goverament counterpartcontribution (USS 3.8 million). The cost estimates &re broken down by yearand by compenent in Annex 2, snd summari:ed balo.

(Mi bUllou) <US * dlllon

percent percemt*MP naa Local Foreign Total Total Local Foreign Total Total

Iesettlam_t 0.8 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.S 0.8 1.2 1.8Ikopa *nd Worth DtAe 2.5 *3.9 6.4 S.0 1.6 2.4 4.0 S.8Flood WBUAUn Systas 0.t 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3Drainage Cacala 2.3 3.S S.8 4.5 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.3Pmppng Station 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.2 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.8Irrigation Canal 4.2 6.2 10.5 S.1 2.6 3.9 6.5 9.5Irrigation Rehabilitation 2.4 3.8 6.2 4.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.6S_eraga 5.4 8.4 13.8 10.6 3.4 5.2 8.6 12.5Solid Vaste 0.2 0.3 0.S 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4Drainage South Plta 2.0 3.1 5.1 4.0 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.7La" £Aqustaties 5.6 0.0 5.6 4.3 3.5 0.0 3.5 5.1Làa" £.gimrt 3.1 2.2 5.3 4.1 1.9 1.4 3.$ 4.8Là"i Ton Offide 0.9 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.9Institution Eol1diag 1.5 2.4 3.9 3.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.6Studios 0.6 2.3 2.9 2.2 0.4 1.4 1.8 2.6Woara Supervision 1.3 2.0 3.3 2.5 0.8 1.2 2.0 3.0Project Unit 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.7Pm a ccci advance 0.0 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.0 1.4 1.4 2.0

Total Bsag Coati 36.7 47.6 84.3 6S.0 22.8 29.7 52.5 76.5

Physical Contingencite 3.7 5.4 9.0 7.0 2.3 3.3 5.6 8.2Pric. Cou.ntigaciés 15.5 20.9 36.4 28.1 4.5 6.0 10.5 15.3

_*......_.. ........ ...... ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---

TOTtL 55.8 73.9 129.8 100.0 29.5 39.1 68.6 100.0

Pric, valne, Dec 18.

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The c»St estimate has also been broken down by type ofexpenditure, es followss

(US $ thoumand) (FKg million)

S of 2 ofForeign Local Taxes Total Total Foreign LoCal Tasea Total Total

_._.___~~~~~; . _ __ ------ ..... ---- _ __--__---__... ..._... ....... ._ ..

Civil Votks 18968.3 8174.9 4071.5 31214.6 45.52 30522.6 13154.6 6551.6 50228.8 38.71Equipsent 3992.3 951.S 2693.3 7637.1 11.12 6424.2 1531.0 4333.9 12289.1 9.52Techalcal Assistance 1735.6 466.4 220.5 2422.5 3.52 2792.9 750.6 354.7 3898.2 3.0tTraining 335.1 42.1 18.4 395.S 0.62 539.2 67.7 29.6 636.3 0.52Operting expenses 576.1 1342.0 136.6 2054.6 3.01 927.0 21S9.4 219.1 3306.1 2.52CovDulting Services 2669.7 687.2 503.5 3860.5 5.62 4296.0 1105.8 810.3 6212.0 4.82Land Acquisition 0.0 3494.2 0.0 3494.2 S.l1 0.0 5622.1 0.0 5622.7 4.32PPF & CCCI advance 1392.1 0.0 0.0 1392.1 2.02 2120.0 0.0 0.0 2120.0 1.61

Total tése Coati 29669.2 151S8.2 7643.7 52411.1 76.51 41621.9 24391.1 12299.9 84313.S 65.02

Phymical Coatingeniems 3345.7 1370.8 904.9 5621.4 8.21 5383.7 2205.1 1456.2 9045.7 7.02Price Cocntlgencies 6046.9 2826.0 1643.8 10516.8 15.32 20936.4 9784.5 5691.3 36412.2 28.12

TOTAL 39061.8 19355.0 10192.5 68609.3 100.0 73942.0 363d2.0 19447.3 129771.3 100.02.....n * ---.-- ........ ._ .. ... . ........... -.------.--- ...........---.

Price value, Dec. 1989.

3.07 Physical contingencies of 10 or 20 peccent have bean added tobase cost for components estiimated on the basis of final and prellminarydesigus respectiv.ly. No physical contingeucies have bean added toconsulting services and technical assistance. Pric. contingencies have beenadded to base cost plus physical contingencles. Price contingencies for theproject cost presented in FHg are based on domestic inflation estimated at92 par year. Price contingencias for the project cost expressed in US$ arebased on recent estimates of lnternational inflation as followss 7.2S in1989 snd 1990, and 4.42 thereafter. The price contingencies were calculatedon the basis of the FM8 exchange rate boing adjusted to compensate for thedifference bet,..en domestic and international inflation. The cost estimatastotal about US$ 2.4 million for techuical assistance, US$ 3.8 million forconsulting services, sd US$ 0.4 million for training.

Prol et rtFaeIUc P1e-

3.08 The proposed project would be msinly fnuanced through thefolloving credits

(i) IDA Credit £f US$ 30.5 million(ii) CCC loan equivalent to US$ 21.0 million(ii) CCCE grant of FF 3.0 million for stulies(iv) FAC grant of FF 5.0 million for technical assistance(v) Government contribution of USS 15.9 million equivalent,

of whiceh 10.2 million represent taxes aud dutiis.

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The financLng plan le indîcated below, ln US$ mulliont

Local Foreigu Total of total.___ .. ...... _.... ._ ....... ---- --------

IDA credit 8.4 22.1 30 5 52.22CCCE lban 5.3 1S.7 21.0 3S.92CCCe grant 0.5 0.5 0.9SFAC grant 0.8 0.8 1.4ZGovernae nt

.Inavatmet 1.9 1.9 3.22

.Land acquisition 3.8 3.8 6.5S

Sub Total 19.6 39.1 5s 6 l0 0.

Taxes and dutie. 10.2 10.2

TOTAL 29.5 39.1 68.6

Effectiveness of the CCCE loan vould b. a condition of effectivenes of theIDA Credit. A detailed financing plan, vith the distribution b.tveen theco-financiers, te given in Annex 3.

Procurement

3.09 The folloving major civil vorks vill be grouped la contracteavarded after prequalificatLon, on the basis of International CompetltiveBidding (ICB) and in accordance vith the Association's guidelines forprocuremwnts (i) Dikes (US$ 3.9 million); (ii) Andriantany and "Amenae.drainage canals (US$ 1.0 million) (iii) Urban sanitation (US$ 8.6 million);and (iv) Drainage of the South Plain (USS 3.2 million). The folloving fourcontracta vill b. financed by CCCE vith its ovw regulations: (i) C3 drainagecanal (US$ 3.0 million)» (il) Irrigation canal (US$ 5.3 million); (iii)Irrigation rehabilitation (US$ 3.6 million); and liv) Pumping station (US$2.0 million).

3.10 Provision and installation of equipment for the municipality,as vell as for the entities responsible for flood cor:r^1, drainage,severage and solld vastes, vill be avarded on the basis of ICB. Equipmentfor the pumping station vill be included in the civil works contract forthis station. For bid evaluation purposes, under ICB, a margin ofpreference of 152, or th. value of the applicable custome duties, whicheverLe lover, ?ould be allowed for materials and equipment manufactured inMadagascar. For civil vorke contracte, a preference of 7.52 vould b.applied to bide from domestic civil vorks contractorse

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3.11 The Association vill reviwes (1) tender documents and bldavard procadures prior to invitation to bid; and (i1) bld evaluation andproposed contract prior to contract avard for ail civil vorks estimated tocost over US$ 300,000, and for equipment contracts greater than US$ 100,000.Small civil vorks contracte of les than USS 0.5 million up to an aggregateof US$ 10.0 million, and equipment contracte of lese than US$ 0.1 million upto an aggregate of US$ 2.0 million, not likely to attract foreigncontractors and suppliera, vould be award-d through Local CompetitiveBidding (LCB), aLvertised locally but open also to foreign bidders. Officeequipment and supplies, and vehicles, vould be purchased by local shoppingwith et least three quotations. The Association's guidelines vill be usedfor the selection of consultants for technical assistance, training andstudies (US$ 6.6 mil.).

3.12 The £ollowing table indicates the planned procurementprocedures and respective amounts:

PROCURMENPT ARRANGEMENTS-(US S illion>-

Projeet Element ICB LCB Other ai .A. Total Coet X…______________ --- --- -------- ---- ----------

Civil Vorks 34.8 8.0 42.8(19.4) (1.5) (20.9) 49S

Equipment 5.6 4.4 10.0(1.0) (2.0) (3.0) 302

Technical Assistance 2.9 2.9(1.8) (1.8) 63S

Training 0.5 0.5(0.2) (0.2) 50S

Operating expenses 2.6 2.6(2.2) (2.2) 87X

Consulting Services 4.7 4.7(1.2) (1.2) 252

Land acquisition 3.8 3.8(0.0) (0.0) OS

Rf$inancing of PPF 1.1 1.1(1. 1) (1.1) 100l

Rlfinancing of CCCE advence 0.3 0.3(0.0) (0.0) OS

.............................................

40.4 12.4 8.0 7.8 68.6IDA (20.5) (3.5) (3.2) (3.3) (30.5) 452S 512 28S 401 43S 452

_--------__----------_---------------_-____-----------__----_------___Note t Figures in parentheses are the respective amounts f inanced by IDA.alContraets avaros for technical assistance and consulting services.blFigures shown above are rounded and include contingencies.

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3.13 The sLctdule of Credit diabursetmnts, glv.n ln Annex 4, teb.sed on the staadard dlabursemmet profile for IBRD and IDA projcets inMadagascar, except thet the dlsbursement profllc has been adjiwted toraflent dlsbursem nts for the lnitial dtposlt in the Speclal Accouant andr.flnancing of thé P. All dlsbursements will be made agauist normaldocumsntatLon submitted to the Bank, except dlsbursements agsalnt op.ratlngcosts and Statements of Exptnditures (SOS) for lilgible expendLtures undercontracts valued *t US$ 20,000 equivalent or les. SupportLng documentatLonfor these vould b. rctalned by the Project Unit snd made avadlable forrevlev by the Assoclatlon during supervLiLon. The proposed closing datewlll b. June 30, 1997.

3.14 Tii table belo glSvas the catogories to b. fLnanced out of theIDA Cr-dit, the mounts and the porcentag8 to be fLnaced La .ach category.

-lS $ mlltoa-

hfut of Crodit S of exponditurcrCatesory Allocated to be faacoed

1 Civil vorbu I0OS of foreljg ad 90tof local expenditures

<à) Seeroge 6.8<b) Sol5d ve%* 0.2<c) Drainage Soth P1a 2.7<d) Aadriaatany caai and

<mbe dik 1.0(e) othere 4.2

Total 14.9Z Equipuent lOOSof foreigu or of local

ex-factory expenditures Md 90t(a) Sol<d vaste 0.1 of local .xpenditures for other(b) Land regiesiy 1.1 itmns prooured locally.<c) othere 1.1

Total 2.3

3 Techaical Aseiatece. Trtaint 100OComaltins Serrices 2.8

4 Ope:httih ep«ee 90 S

<a) Le"t t estgt 1.2<b> othere 0.5

Total 1.7

5 RoffUencing of P?F 1.1 Amouat due

6 Uaallocattd 7.7

TOT1 30.5…________________...................................... ________...................

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3.15 To ensure prompt availability of funds for the project, IDAand the Government vill oach make initial deposits. Assurances vereobtained at negotiations that Government counterpart funds totalling FMg 1.0billion, mainly to finance land acquisition, would be deposited in theProject Adçance Accouant at the Central Bank, by thé date of the Crediteffectivenesa at the latest. Agreement vas reached that, at the beginningof each year, the Project Advance Accouat vould be replenished up to theamouant of FMg 2.0 billion. A separate Special Accouant (revolving fund) willbe established, in US$, ln a commercial bank with an initial deposit of US$2.0 million. The Special Account opening balance vas calculated as theequivalent of three months of IDA disbursements from the proceeds of theproposed Credit.

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IV. IHPL0EUT ATION UD DNSTITUTIONAL APRANGENENTS

Proleet Imuleueatation

Proloct Hinaa eet

4.01 To ensure good coumnication between the institutionsinvolved, a Steering Committee viii be established to oversee projectimplementation. It vill be composed of high level representatives of allthe institutions involveds Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP), Ministryof Public Works (MTP), Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Agriculture (HA),Ministry of Finance (MF), Faritany of Antananarivo and Fivondronana ofAntananarivo-Renivohitra (FIVREN). This committee would be convened on aregular basis, every three months for example, and vould be chaired by NEP.

4.02 General coordination of project implementation vill be theresponsibility of the Project Unit (BPPAs Bureau du Projet de la Plained'Antananarivo), created in December 1987, under the authority of thePresident of the Antananarivo Faritany (Province). The role of the Proj3.ctUnit is to efficiently prepare the project until Credit effectiveneso and,aftervard, to coordinate project implementation. Under a Project Director,BPPA is composed of five departmentss (i) administrative and financial; (iI)land acquisition; (iii) urban sanitation; (iv) irrigation; and (v)assistance to users' associations (of farmers).

4.03 The most urgent tasks of BPPA have beent (a) to appoint afiret nucleus of staff, both seconded from the ministries and directlyappointed, ajsisted by three technical adviserst a sanitation engineer, anirrigation engineer and, later on, a specialist to help organise theassociations of irrigation usera (the latter two financed by the FrenchCooperation); (b) to implement the large land acquisition/expropriationprogram required by the project; and (c) to prepare the bidding process, nothat the major contracts could be signed soon after Credit effectiveness.

4.04 Most of the vorks financed by the Project are related to thestrengthening, rehabilitation or replacement of existing facilities builtfor flood control, drainage and irrigation. These existing facilities areoperated and maintained by s Ministry of Public Works for flood controlfacilities, Ministry of Agriculture for irrigation and FIVREN for drainage.The cost of operatlon and maintenance is covered by the budget of eachagency. During project tmplementation, these agencies vill keep theresponsibility for operation and maintenance of the existing facilit$es,until a neo organization is put In place. Therefore, BPPA vill act onbehalf of these *gencies, for the execution of the vorks, according tospecific implementation agreements (see para.4.07 below).

4.05 Under the First Urban Project (Credit 1497-MAG), a projectunit (BPU, Bureau des Projets Urbains) vas created vithin the Ministry ofPublic Works, to coordinate implementation of the project. It has nov agood knowledge of urban management and urban problems in the AntananarivoRegion. Therefore, it is reasonable to keep it in operation and to use itsexperience to implement some urban components of the proposed project which

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re the continuation of its role und-r the Firat Urban Projects assistanceto FIVREN, to the Land Rogistiy Office, to the Land Tsx Department end forstudies related to the urban development in the Southern part of the Plain.This vill be dont on behalf of BPPA.

2uDl entation

4.06 R.sponsibilities of the agencies involvod in the project aresuarized belovt

Comoonent Ownershio Exocutint Aaencv

Resettlement FIVREN BPPADikes MTP BPPAFlood WarnLng Moteorology EPPADrainage FIVREN BPPAPuzping Station FIVREN BPPAirrigation Canal MA BPPAIrrigation Reha'oilitation MA 8PPAUrban Sanitation FIVREN BPPADrainage South Plain MTP BPPALand Registry MA BPPALand Tax Office MF BPPAUrban Studies MTPIFI'VEN BPPAAgriculture Studios MA MA

4.07 Details of the relationrhip cutlined above vill be confirmedin agreements to be signed prior to effectivenesas

(a) Implementation agreements (conv¶entions de travail) betweenBPPA and each ofs MTP, MA, MF, FIVREN and the Meteorology Department whichvill define responsibilitiei for project execution and for operation andmaintenance of the works after their completion; and

(b) Implementation agreement between BPPA and BPU which definerespective responsibilities for the components implemented by BPU underBPPA's coordination.

mol ementation Sehedule

4.08 Prior to Credit effectiveness, two urgent components vill bestarted vith CCCE finsucings

(a) emergency phase of urban sanitation between the railwaystation and Isotry; and

(b) dredging and enlarging the urban section of theAndriantany Canal.

4.09 The project impllmentation schedule La given in Annex 5. Itis based on the assumption that the IDA Credit vould be effective by the endof 1990 and that land acquisition vould follow the proposed program

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(para.4.10). The vorka could be started et the end of the rainy season,March 1991, for the dikes, the pumping station and irrigation rehabilitation(phases 0 and 1). The Andriantany Canal (dowvutream) and the drainage canal(amen.e), the irrigation canal, irrigation rehabilitation (phase 2) and thesolld waste component vill b. started in March 1992, and the drainage canalC3, urban sanitation and South Plain drainage in March 1993. Phases 3, 4and 5 of irrigation rehabilitation vill b. started in March 1993, 1994 and1995. Everything should be completed by mid 1996, and the closing datewould be June 30, 1997.

Land AcuuisitionlExaroriations

4.10 A prcgram of land acquisition, or expropriations, is necessaryto imploment the ;;oject. It represents 168.44 ha and a total cost of FMg6,081.4 million, Lncluddng W1.g 600 million in ind.miitiea for houses bullton the dikes, which vill have teo be destroyed. A budget of FMg 700 millionbas already been made aveilable ln 1989. The progrme of land acquisitionvas discussed in dot5il at appraisal, and it vas agreed to spr.ad it overfour years as folloas:

ha FMg million

1989. Drainage canal (amene.) 19.29 441.2Andriantany (upstream) 0.50 159.0Dikes 2.62 377.1Sub-total 22.41 977.3

1990. Resettlement 15.53 191.5Pumping 2.80 83.4Irrigation Rebabilitation (502) 4.36 434.6Irrigation canal 27.03 871.0Andriantany (downstream) 4.12 224.8Sub-total 53.84 1805.3

1991. Irrigation rehabilitation (502) 4.37 434.6Drainage canal C3 L9.74 1271.7Sub-total 44.11 1706.3

1992. Drainage South Plain 48.08 1592.5____________________

TOTALs 168.44 6081.4flmummelmmumumuuum

Any delay in this program vould lead to the postponement of the componentsaffected.

4.11 The families (about 1,200) vho vould have to move are thosewho have bullt houses on the dikes, mainly along the Mamba River and theAndriantany Canal, most of them vithout any authorization. The Project villpreparo platforme, protected from flooding, and vill grant to every family aplot of land to rebuild their bouses. In addition, the fanilies vith a landtitle vill receive an indemnity to rebuild their houses. This resettlementplan vas discussed at appraisal and submitted to IDA before negotiations.

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It vas deemed satisfactory, vith smoe minor modifications, agreed uponduring negotiations.

Studios

4.12 Soveral studies vill have to be carried out, ln order to haveaIl the components ready for $mplementation. Final design studies arerequired for the urban sanitation componont (severage). They vill befinanced by an extension of the exasting PPF, from US$ 650,000 to 1,100,000.Final design ts also required for the drainage canal C3. GCCE proposed atappraisal to finance it through a Study Fund which is being put in place asgrant (FF.995,000). CCCE also proposed to finance through thls Study Fundan urbanisation study for the Southern part of the Plain (MF.i,750,000), andan Agriculture Dev.lopment Progrom for the Antananarivo Region (PF.500,000).In addition, a solud waste study (USe 200,000) vill be carried out under theproject to optimise collection and treatmont, and to prepare their transferto a private company. During a pre-negotiation mission, a vat.rshedmauagement study vas diseussed and agreed upon. This study viil follow theverking paper alroady carried out (see the "Watershed Managemnt Plan' intih Project File), and prepare a program of vhich the firet phase vould befinanced under PEl. A tsx burden study (about US$ 50,000) for theAntananarivo area vill al8e be carried out under tne project. Finally, anamount of US$ 100,000 vill be made available for uwidentified studies.

Iustitutiol luildinx

4.13 One of the most impo tant objectives of the proposed projectis to strengthen the institutiona. framewsrk for integrated and controlleddevelopment of the Antananarivo Plain, in all the sectors having an impacton the living conditions of the populations fleod control, drainage,irrigation, urban sanitation, solid vaste, land regltry, local taxation andland development. For that, the project vill help:

(a) create a public entity (Si) 1/ to operate and maintain,through a private firm, the flood control and drainagefacilities rehabilitated or constructed under theproject;

(b) transfer to a private company (S2a) operation andmaintenance of the severage system ;

(c) transfer to a private company (S2b), or companies,collection and treatmont of solid vastes ;

1/ these appellations (Si, S2a, S2b, S2c sad S3) vere adopted early ln theproject preparation by consultants sad Malagaay authorities.

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(d) create an autonomous department S2c(for example a "le5iAutonome) vithin FIVREN to operate and maintain theexiating urban drainage systes;

(e) create a foderation of wsers' associations (S3) tooperate and maintain the irrigation systemsrehabllitated under the project; and

(f) strengthen the following existing Lnstltut-on»s

(1) Meteorology Departmaent, responsible for operationof the flood varning system to be put in place underthe project;

(il) Land Office (Direction du Patrimoine), reaponsiblefor the land registry component; and

(iii) Land Tex Offïce, te iGprove the collection andadministration of the property tax in the AntananarivoRegion.

Flood Control and Draingt

4.14 Up to nov, flood control has been the responsibility of thePublic Works Ministry (MTP), through its regional department (SRPCE).Drainage is the responsibility of FIVREN. However, the Andrienteay Canal teoporated by thei Ministry of Agriculture, because up to nov lts main functionhas been for irrigation. Studies and discussions vithin the authoritiesinvolved concluded that a new Institution, called Si, should be La charge ofoporating and maintaining the flood protection dikes, the drainage system lnthe Plain, including the pumping station, as vell as the firet stretch(about 7 km) of the main irrigation canal upatream of the irrigation area.The Director General of this nev institution Si, receiving information fromthe flood varaing system, vlll have sole responsibility for opening orclosing the main gates which control the flooding of the Plain, stoppingirrigation and starting the pumping station.

4.15 This institution Sl vould be a Decentralized PublicCorporation (Etablissement Public à Caractre. Administratif DicentraliJé,EPA). Ita board vould be composed of representatives of all theinstitutions involved. A management contract would be avarded to a privatecompany (contrat de gérance). This EPA should b. established by the and of1992, ln order to taike the responsibility of the firet works uponcompletion. Until then, the present institutions, MTP, MA and FIVREN villkeep their present responsibilities, technically and financially.Nevertheless, a decision on the financial resources, needed for operationand maintenance of the flood control and drainage facilities, should be madeas soon as possible and vill be a condition of effectiveness of the IDACredit.

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Irrimatio

4.16 At present, construction, operation and maintenance ofirrigation projecta vithin the Antananarivo Province are entrusted to theeService Provincial de l'Infrastructure Ruralo' (SPIR) of MA. Under théproposed project, the associations of vater users vould establish afederation of associations S3. This institution, aasisted by a supportingunit (Cellule d'Appui), vill deal vith the oporation and maintenance of thesecondary and tertiary irrigation canals. This institutional set-up is inconformity vith the present legisiation on small-scale irrigation projecta(PPI).

4.17 Thereforù* the Tanjombato Dam, the second stretch of the mainirrigation canal and the irrigation syst.m vill remain, aus t presant, underthe responsibility of MA. Ths is acceptable, provided thats

(1) a formal agreement be signed betwe.n MA and S1 to assuretihe de'ivory of guaranteed dilution discharges beoth for theAndriantany and C3 Canais

(ii) the gates at the entrance and at the outlet of the Plainbe absolutely closed, upon formal and written order from themanager of SI, in case of flood varningi

(iii) assurance be given that adequate irrigation vater ratesvould be raised to cover part of S3 expenses, and that anadequate Goverrwent budget vould be allocated to coverpossible operational deficlts.

4.18 In addition, the irrigated areas should be protected againsturban development because the part of the Plain where irrigation vill berehabilitated is too low for urban development. Drainage vorks have beendosigned to allow flooding on rice fields during three days, bocause thecrops can survive under 'rater for thls period, but thls would beunacceptable for urban areas. Therefore, a decree protecting the irrigationareas should be issued before Credit effectiveness.

Urban Sanitation

4.19 The project includes the rehablitation and expansion of thesoverage facilities, which are presently operated and maintained by FIVREN.Due to a lack of funds, most of the vorks have not been maintained and arenov out of service. All parties agreed that nev lnstltutlonal arrangementsshould b. established. It vas agreed at negotiations that the severagesystem would be op-rated by a private company (S2a) under a 'contrat degerance", financed by a vater tax. It vas proposed that FIVREN and JIRAMA,the national vater and electricity company, take an equîty participation inS2a. This issue vas discussed at negotiations and signing of a contractvith this private firm vill be a condition of disbursement of the IDA Creditfor thé amouats allocated to this component.

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4.20 FIVREN te also responsible for the solid vaste collection enddisposai. Undet th. Antananarivo Water and Sanitation Project (Credit 1002-MAG), 23 collection trucks wvre dol$vered, end a composting plant vas built.Five trueks are *till in service and the plant is vorking relativoly well.Last year, FIVREN r.eeived from the Japan Goverument, as a grant, 63 trucksof 6 and 8 m3. Management of this huge oquipment is larg.ly beyond FIVREN'scapacity. Th. appraisal mission proposed to finance a solid vaste study(son para.4.12) to optimize collection and treatment, snd to prepare theirtransfer to one or tvo private companies (52b). The Project includes therehabilitation and expansion of the composting plant, but signing of thecontracta vith private firma vould be a condition of diobursement of the IDACredit for this component.

4.21 Operatien and maintenance of the existtng urban dretnagesystea cannot be taken over by S2a because th. systeu in tn bad shapâ, dueto a lack of maintenance. TIVREN has decided ta croate a new institutionS2c, for exemple an autoavnous department wvthin PIVREN (Regie Autonome).The appraisal mission proposed to *trengthen thts new institution, throughprovision of equlpment and technicel assistance. Studies are presentlycarrted out to determine the staffing needa of FIVRES, taking lnto accouatthe privatization of municipal services. As soon as they are completed,FIVREN vill submit an action plan to IDA.

Flood Wartina Syst.

4.22 It has been agrQed that the Metoorology Department, of MTMT,vould keep the responsibility for flood varning in th. Ikopa vatershed. NeWequipment vill b. provided by the Project tO thls department, which yillprepare the bid documents, BPPA being responsible for the btdding procesitself. Th. Project vill finance operation and maintenance. AnImplementation agreement, deflning the respective responsibilities of eachagency (Meteorology and BPPA at the beginning), vould be signed beforeCredit effectiveneus.

Land Reaistrr

4.23 An important component of the Envirosment Program (PE),appraised in June 1989, is the establisbment of maps for 6.0 million hathrougiout the couatry, in priority zones for PE, and land registry for 2.2million ha, but excluding urban areas. The cadastre of the AntananarivoPlain vas establisied from 1936 to 1944, but has never been completelyupdated, beause registry of changes is not mandatory. The proposed projectvill help update the cadastre in the city and the Plain, vith the equipmentsupplied under PE, and vithin tie same lastitutional framework. That meansthat physical operations vill be done by the National Geographic Department(FTM), and all administrative tasks by the Land Office (Direction duPatrimoine). If, for any reason, the arrangement under PE is notceonclusive, i.e. FT! not equipped under this program, the proposed projectvould procure maps and orthophotos necessary for cadastral surveys undercorpetitive bidding. The program vill be completed in five years, from theend of 1990 to tie beginning of 1996, under the responsibility 'f the"Direction du Patrimoine" and the coordination of BPU and BPPA. The land

_ 29 -

legislation sbould be monded to make mandatory the registry of any transferof the onersbip of land, prior to any diabursement for this componett.

LATR- - fTfie.

4.24 Improvement of the land rogistry vill lead to incr6asedrevenues for local governments only if the tax base and tex collection arealso improved. Therefore, the proposed project vill strengthen the Land TaxOffice (Service de l'Iupet foncier) through technical assistance and*quipmnt. This vill be dons in 18 months, in 1991 and 1992. Bociuse ofIto experience in this ares, SPU vill be responsible for this component,with the coordination of BPPA.

Urbanisation of thé South Plaln

4 25 Although the development of tuls part of zhe Plain te notincluded La the proposed project, the project vill technically allow itesurbanization. la this are«, the project vlll finance storage basins,drainage cavasl And primary roade. A preliminaery report vas prepared,finsnced by the PPF, and an urbanieation study has been requested by MSP andvill b. financed by CCCE, urnder the projeet. This study vill produce a^aster plan for the development of the Plain sad the legislative frameworkfor its urbaniation. Tt vill be used for the preparation of the SecondUrbsn Projeet, under consideration for IDA financing.

4.26 Neasures to control th. urbanization of the South Plain vertdiscussed *t negotiations and the submission of an official action plan villbe a condition of disbursement of the IDA Credit for this component of theproject.

Uqaitorina. IeortLag sud SuDervision

4.27 BPPA vill be responsible for monitoring the progress of theproject toward its stated objectives. It vill prepare progreas reports cachquarter that would briefly identify major problems sad recoraend solutions;revi$e tha performance of the agenc$es involved; and maintain key indicatorsof progresa in fulfil$ment of project goals. Reports of the last quarter ofeach year vill contain information on the budgets of every agency involvedfor the folloving year. It vill also include a statement that sufficientcouaterpart fund bave bean included in the Flinance Law for that year. Inaddition, a Project Completion Report vould be prepared by BPPA, on thebasis of an otline mutually agreed upen, snd sent to IDA vithin six monthsof the cloing date of the Credit.

4.28 IDA supervision of the project would require up to 100 weeksof staff sud consultant t$me during the six-year implementation period.This level of involvement vould be concentrated in the first three years,after which some activities would vind doun and BPPA would have acquiredgreater management experience.

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V. FINANCIAL ANULYSIS

Introduction

5.01 Taking into account the national dimension of this largeproject, the long term nature of the benefits it would generate and thepresent economic situation of the country, it would be difficult tolmplement a system of full cost-recovery of the investments. Therefore, itla proposed that only operation, maintenance and renewal costs be recoveredby mobilizing local resources and user charges through local governments:Faritany, Fivondronana Antananarivo-Renivohitra (FIVREN) and Firaisana ofthe Antananarivo area.

5.02 Given the low monetary income of householda, Lt has also beendecided that the project would not raise local tax ratce or Implement newtsxes, but would aim at improving the management and collection of theexistins tax system. The only exception would be the water tax, approved bydecre. ln 1983, but never implemented in Antananarivo (a water tax wassatisfactorJly iuplemented in 1988 in o-amasina).

Local Finsce

5.03 The financial resources of the Fivondronana (Municipalities)in Madagascar are not sufficient to cope with urban development. The totalbudget of all urban fivondronana and firaisana in 1987 represents less than12 of the national budget. Local geverrments rely heavily on CentralGoverameut transfers whiih constitute more than 502 of their revenues.Beasides structural imbalances that exist between central and localallocations, local governments do not manage properly their tax base.

5.04 Revenues raised by local goveruments in the Antananarivo areaamount to about FMg 10.5 billion, of which 72Z for thé Faritany, 262 forFIVREN end 22 for the Firaissna of Ambohimanarina (FA). On the other hand,current expenditures amount to about FMg 8.3 billion. The cumulativesurplus of about FMg 2 billion is not used by the Faritany. Nevertheless,services rendered by FIVREN are not adequate due to lack of sufficientfunds. Financial situation of th. local governments, Faritany, FIVREN andFA, from 1983 to 1988 snd projections from 1989 to 1997 are given in Annex8.

5.05 The Faritany derives its revenues for 85S from the businesstax (taxe professionnelle) snd for 15S from the license duty on the sale ofaleoholic beverages, vehicles and slaughter taxes. The main sources ofrevenue for the Fivondronana and the Firaisana are detailed below.

Central Goverument TraDsfers

5.05 These transfers are based, in principle, on 82 of receiptecollected on importe and internal consumption items. Government transfersrepresent over 50Z of FIVREN revenue. Hovever, these revenues are beyondthe control of local governments. They have varied ln volume and have beenLrregularly transferred. Work has been done under the First Urban Project

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to clarify the situation vith the Government who seems not to transfet thetotslity of what local SovernMents are entitled to raceive. Ffforts in thisagea could raise substantially their revenues. The shortage in transfersfor FIVR>N te estimated at FMg 300 million for year 1988.

Pr@ortv TaU

S.06 Under this generic name are classified three different taxeswhich are collected at the national level and transferred in totality tolocal Oovernments. These resources are not accouated for In the Governmentbudgetary processs

(a) Land Tax (Impôt Foncier sur les Terrains - IFT). This taxyields about FM8 13 million a ysar, which is abnormally low,the reason being the use of 1965 criteria for evaluating thetex baae. The atudy carried out under the PPF for theproposed project shows that by updating and changing thecriteria on reasonable bases, the land tax would generateabout FMg 300 million per annum.

(b) Property Tax (Impôt Foncier sur la Propriati bâtie - IFPB).Up to 1977, this tax vas levied by the Province (Faritany).Smnce 1978, it te transferred to local goverments as follovs:

- 502 for the Fivondronana- 472 for the Firaisana- 31 for the Fokontany

Tax on property is the major stable resource of localgovernments, repr.senting an annual income for FIVREN and FAof about FH4 900 million in 1P37. It in asssumed an Increaseof 32 per year froi 1988 to 1991, folloving populationincrease, and 6S from 1992 onwards vith Improvements in thetax base. It is expected that additional FMg 200 to 300million per year could be raised if basic Issues vereaddressed by Central and local governments. These issuesrelate mainly to management and evaluation criteria of thephysical parts of the propertys sise, quality of constructionand their environment which are important factors forappraising taxable property. Many of these critical elementsare nov not taken into consideration. It is also expectedthat the Project would substantially raise the value of landand hence the property tax return.

(c) Surtax on Property (Taxe Annexe à l'IFPB). This surtaxapplies only to the Fivondronana. It is levied on the sambasis as the property tax with a 4% uniform rate. Its purposeis to cover the cost of collection and treatment of solidvastes. Presently, the surtax base is about FHg 540 million.Using the same assumptions as for the property tax, the surtaxwould yield approximately FMg 640 million in 1993, vmcih vould

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cover the cost of operation and maintenance of solid wastesactivity. It ts also expected that improvements to the surtaxbase would incroase it8 return by about 200 million per year.

Other s

5.07 The Fivondronana derives part of its revenues from other localtaxes such as market stalle, rental on public buildings, etc. Thisrepresents between 15S and 202 of total revenues. Because of poormanagement and political sensitivity, local authorities have not been ableto tap thies resource proporly. FIVREN is not meeting its obligations vithinthe Firet Urban Projeet, financed by IDA. It had agreed to increase in realterme, from 1984 to 1989, the rents of municipal housing by 1002 and thefees charged for market stalle by 1402 This has not been dore, due to thereluctance of the Popular Council to raise any taxes or fees. It leconsidered that this part of local revenues has a big potential and couldeasily yield MSg 200 million more than its present return. The newlyappointed President of the Fivondronana is decided to make proper use of theMunicipality's local resources.

Vat Tex

5.08 The tax on vater is usually levied to cover severage coste.Toamasina started to collect such a tax on vater in 1988. The first attemptto do the same thing in Antananarivo goes back to 1984. However, due todifficulties between FIVREN and JIRAMA, this has never materialized. It i.proposed to start vith a reasonable tax rate, FtMg 20 par m3 ln 1991, and toincrease it by 102 a year for three consecutive years, then by 5S until year2000. The nar vater tax vould represent about 132 price increase for vaterconsumera. Based on an annual vater consumption of 24 million m3 in 1986,the vater tax vould yield FMg 750 million the firet year of itslmplementation.

coset R.cover

5.09 The Project vill aim at recovering the full cost of operation,maintenance and reneval of the facilities constructed or rehabilitated underthe project. These facilities vill be managed by the institutions listed inpara.4.13 abova, croated or etrengthened under the projects

(a) Public entity S1, responsible for flood control and drainagefacilities;

(b) Private company S2a, responsible for the severage system;

(c) Private company S2b, or companies, responsible for collectionand treatment of solid vastes;

(d) Autonomous departmont S2c, vithin FIVREN, responsible for theexisting urban drainage system; and

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(e) Federation of users associations S3, responsible for theirrigation systoma.

5.10 Financtal noeds of Si vould amount to about FMg 500 million aetthe beginning of its operations, of which 230 million are for reneval ofequipment (see projections in Annex 9). The financing of S1 vould besupported, equally the firet year, bys (i) th. Central Government, (IL) theFaritany, and (iii) FIVREN and the Firaisana of the Antananarivo area. Thiswould represent about FMg 160 million for each institution in 1993. Thefollowing years, the Government contribiution vould 8tay constant, theFaritany and FIVREN providing equally the balance. Sl's budget would bereviewed every three yesr by the Government and the contributions of th.Faritany, FIVREN and Firaisana vould be adjusted on th. basis of thisreview. Any surplus would be deposited in the Infrastructure Fund for UrbanHousing (FIHU). Hovever, any deficit vould be paid by Goverment for wiicha financial covenant would be required in the Credit Agreement.

5.11 The expenses of S2a for the severage system vould be coveredby the vater tax (see para.5.08), which could yield about 1Kg 750 million in1993. Financial projections of S2a are given in Annex 9. The introductionof th. vater tax, at a rate acceptable to IDA would b. a condition ofdisbursement for the sewerage component.

5.12 Collection and treatment of solid vastes are at presentperformed by FIVREN, and eupposed to be financed by the existing surtax onproperty. It is proposed to privatize this activity by transfer to one ort-o private companies (S2b) under a 'contrat d'affermage wvith FIVREN(para.4.20). S2b'o financial resources vould come from the allocation ofpart of the surtax on property and from the sales of compost produced by thetreatment plant. The financial needs of S2b are about FMg 650 million in1993 (see Annex 9).

5.13 The existing stormwater system vould be managed by a nevinstitution S2c, for example an autonomous department vithin FIVREN, whichvould finance it from its ovn budget, as it is the case nov. Municipalbudgets related to this activity have to be strengthened in order to reachacceptable levels of service.

5.14 Thi expenses of S3 would amount to nearly FUg 163 million ayear, at full development. This could be covered by s (i) vater rates atFMg 45,000 per ha of rice (equivalent to 225 kg of paddy); (ii) contributionof FUg 70,000 per ha of "off-season' crop (equivalent to 6.6S of the netmargin); and (iii) a contribution of MA to the management costs and to theProject Unit ("cellule d'appui").

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San.Ui OF COsU RECOVR

(Mtà et toan mU igi>

Total or- FAc =F TW VotePr Firril, ivdn_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ a. au ri.. ta

1nxeuàL 1082ILI 0.78

Ganauiatn anmlDam00sp

i3|A 8.0 0.04 - - 0.110 - - 0.Ui -Vat e~t 8:oo - - - - 8i.00 -

8eerg * at 4.00 - - - - - 4.6O - -DraInag 1.00 - _- - .- - - - 1.00

10.0 0.04 0 o 0.00 8.00 4.e0 O.1 1.00

OMW TMTAL l.12 11O2 1 l 2 e,0 J 4.i o.u l C

US EqIuvalant 7T.70 08.18 0.7T 0.47 0.48 L.ee 8.00 0.48 o.00O.0i 90.01 1.O1 .0 0.60 ..0l 4.01 O.01 0.01

-~~~A ffordability

5.15 The financial needs of the entities responsible for operation,maintenance and renesal of the facilities constructed or rehabilitated underthe project vill be covered by contributions based on local taxes and by avater tex. The financial analysis shovu that these expenses are affordable,taking into accouat the financial projections made for the local governuentsinvolved and for the operating agencies (see annexes 8 and 9).

(a) Operating costs of Si would be FUg 485 million in 1993,includiig FMg 230 million for reneval. The Government,.the Faritany, and FIVREN and firaisana vould contributeabout FMg 160 million each the firet year of operation.Fivren and FA vould derive their revenues from theprop.rty tax which would increase from ENS 900 millionin 1988 to FMg 1138 million in 1993. In addition, FMg200 to 300 million more could be raised if taxcollection and administration were [mproved (sea para.5.06 b). This vill be done uander the project byassistance to the cadastre and to the Land TaxDepartment.

(b) Operating costs of S2a would be FUg 550 million in1993, including FMg 170 million for reneusl. Thisvould be covered by a vater tax of FM8 24.2 per m3.Thi, ---tar tax (1.5 cents of UD$ per m3) vouldrepresent only 13S of the vater bill.

(c) Oporating costs of S2b vould represent about 7Kg 650million in 1993 (ineluding FMg 126 million for reneval)

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end would be covered by the surtax on property. Thisis affordable because lt is not a new charge: thesurtax already finances collection and treatment ofsolid wastes. The only difference is that a privatefirm would carry out this job. It is also expectedthat Improvements could raise the revenue by FMg 200million per year.

Flou of Funds

5.16 The proceeds of the IDA Credit would be made available by theGovernment to the Faritany of Antananarivo, which has the responsibility ofth. Project Unit (BPPA). The project is included in the PIP, and is basedon a realistic schedule of diabursement. During project implementation,updated three-year investment and public expenditures progrsms for the urbansector vould be submitted each year, by October 31, to IDA for its reviewand comments.

Financial mNna_emnt

5.17 The critical area in municipal finance is the weakfinancial ninagement of fiscal resources to achieve the objective ofresource mobilization and cost recovery under the proposed project.Strengthening of the institutional capacity of the tax authorities and thelocal governments in therefore necessary. About US$ 1.5 million will bespent under the project on strengthening the land tax office. Thisintervention vould help in the management and the evaluation of the tsxsystem performance, assessment, collection effort and information systems.At the level of FIVRER, the Firat Urban Project has already placed someemphasis on financial management, by reorganizing the Financial andAdministrative Department (DAF) and by introducing new financial managementtechniques.

Accouatina and Auditin« Reonirem_nts

5.18 Separate project accounts will be established by BPPA, theVaritany, FIVREN, FA and SI. Thes. agencies vould be required to completepreparation of financial statemento of project transactions vithin threemonthe of the close of the Government fiscal year. Financial etatements of!aritany, FIVREN and Si would also b) audited. Auditors' opinions on thesefinancial statements will be prepared by independent auditors acceptable toIDA, and submitted to the Government and IDA within six monthe of the end ofthe Goverument fiscal year. Independent auditors are available inMadagascar and presently perform such audits for other Bank projecte. Theaudit report of BPPA's accouants would include a separate analysis of the useof IDA funds under the Special Accouant.

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VI. PROJECT JUSTIFICATION - B8NEFITS AND RISKS

6.01 The proposed project, vith its numerous components, villdramatically improve the physical and institutional environment of the cityof Antananarivo and of its rural hinterland, and the functioning of theeconomy of the whole area. Beyond the usual micro-economic analysls of thecosts and benefits of each component, which is summarized below, a moremacro-economic and regional approach ts necessary to capture the short termeffects of the implementation of the proposed project on the regionaleconomy and its longer term impact on the structural changes of thiseconomy. This is explained and developped in Annex 11.

Coet-Benefit Analseis

6.02 Each project component has been carefully analyzed from amicro-econdmic point of view, by maximiuing the present value of its costsand ben<fits at a discounting rate of 102 for a given level of services,vith sensitivity analysis for the main parameters such as macro-economicenvironment, population growth rate, changes in market prices of rural andurban land, etc.. This analysis has led to several important modificationsin the design of the main vorks such as the drainage and irrigation network,the pumping station, etc.

6.03 The internal rates of return have been calculated for theproject as a whole (ex^ept the urban sanitation component for whidh thebenefits, related to health, environment, and quality of life, are hardlyquantifiable), and for various combinations of the components of theproject for which benefits can be directly identified and quantified. Twodifferent growth rates of the population of the plain have been considered s32 (corresponding to the present trend and involves no new urban developmentbeyond the natural growth rate, whidh is an extreme hypothesis), and 52,which is the most likely sad is taken as the base case.

Thi Uhole Prolot

6.04 la tXie base case, vith an urban growth rate of 5S in thesouthera part of the plain, the overall rate of return of the project is 152and 182 for an incremental value of the land in the southern part of theplain of FMG 5,000 and FMG 10,000 per square meter, respectively (see para.6.07). An urban growth rate of only 3S, which is unlikely, would reducethose rates of return by 3%

Ftood Protection

6.05 The rate of return of the flood protection componento alone,whiih inelude dikes, river bed improvement, and the flood-warning system, is272 in the base case, sad vould still be above 202 if the population growthrate vas OZ . This rate of return is not very sensitive to the populationgrovth rate, because of the importance of the already existing urban assets.A separate rate of return has been calculated for the protection of theplain north of the Mamba river alone, assuming no other improvements in the

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Irrigation and drainage. This rate of return would be 8S. This low rate ofreturn shows that it would not be economically justified to improve theflood protection of the irrigated plain vithouti, at the same time,rehabilitating the irrigation itself (see para. 6.08).

Drainat* of the Plain South of the H mba River

6.06 The southern part of this plain (south of the 67 hectares) isalready partially urban$sed, and the remaining agricultural production lanegligible. The future extension of urbanisation in this part of the plainvill probably take place at a high pace, and the project provides themin4mum infrastructure required to make sure that this urbanization vill bemanageable. In the northern part of the plain, which $s predomilantlyagricultural, no further extension of the urban activities and constructionsis forecasted, at least at the time horizon of the project.

6.07 The protection against submersion by the surface runoff fromthe vater basin vill reduce the damage to existing urban assets andactivities and to crops, and vill increase the market value of land. Therate of return of the corresponding components of the project (drainagecanals, pumping station, retention ponds and gravel roads along the canalsIn the southern plain) mostly depends on the growth rate of the urbanpopulation and activities and on the incremental value of the land suitablefor development. In the base case, vith a 52 urban grovwth rate, for anineremental value of FMG 5,000 and 10,000 per square meter, the rate ofreturn is 252 and 312 respectively. The actual incremental value vill mostlikely exceed F7G 5000, which corresponds to the cost of one meter oflandfill that the project vill save. If the urban growth rate le only 22,the rate of return would be 18Z for an incremental value of land of FMG5,000 per square meter.

Irrtitation Rehabilitation

6.08 The folloving cost-benefit analysis is related to therehabilitation of the irrigation perimeter on the right b*nk of the IkopaRiver, to the North of the "67 hectares". The costs include the investments,operation and maintenance of the flood protection vorks of the agriculturalplain, the irrigation and drainage canals, the portion of the establisbment,operation and management coste of the Federation of Users Associations (S3)which are specifically related to the irrigation systems, and the additionalagrieultural production costs. The investment costs of the new canal GR andof the main eanal C3 are charged to the "urban" component of the project, asvell as half of the maintenance cost of the canal GR mad the totality of themaintenance cost of the canal C3. The calculations are based on the shadowprice of paddy determined by reference to the market price of rice lmportedfrom Thaliand. For the Antananarivo area, this shadow price is FMG 279 perkilogram of paddy.

6.09 In the base case (final yield of paddy s 3.8 ton/ha, and off-season cultivation on 500 ha), the internal rate of return is 192 . Withoutthe off-season cultivation, the internal rate of return would be 16S . Ifthe final yield of paddy is reduced to 3.4 ton/ha (which means a 202

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reduction of the additional output on already cultivated areas), these ratesof return would be 162 and 13Z respectively.

6.10 At full devolopment, the total operation and maintenance costsof S3 vill amount to FMG 163 million per year. These costs vill berecovered by a user fee of i) FMG 45,000 per hectare for paddy cultivation,equivalent to 225 kilos of paddy at the average market price, or to 8S ofthe farmor's net added value; and >i) FMG 70,000 per hectare for off-seasoncultivation, equivalent to 6.62 of the farmer'u corresponding added valut.

6.11 Although these water rates appear acceptable, the size ofesisting ferme (0.55 ha on average) is 80 small, and the monetary incomeprovided by the agrieultural activity is so low, that the corresponding costvill appear high for the average farmer, as shown in the farm budgetsuunarized hereafter. The average fsmily farm of 0.55 ha vith 6.5 personsvill produce 1,980 kilos of paddy, vîth a total market price of FTG 396,000.However, 822 of this production vill be consumed by the family itself, gothat the gros. monetary income vill be only FMG 71,000. The off-seasoncultivation on 17Z of the farm, or .10 ha (as assumed in the project) villbring an additional gros. output of FMG 172,000, of which 902 vill beactually marketed. After payment of the cash inputs (FMG 66,000) and of thevater fee (FMG 7,000), the net monetary income provided by the off-seasoncultivation viii be FMG 82,000. This average farmer vill therefore obtainfrom his irrigated production a net monetary incomo of FMG 43,000. Thisincome is obviously too loy to support the monetary expenditure of a familyof 6.5 persons. Indeed, most farms have also other agrieultural incomeobtained from non irrigated plots in the ltanetym (fira vood, cassavs,etc.), and urban monetary income obtained from permanent or temporery jobsln the city. Nevertheless, it is clear that most farmes of the plain are too-mall to be economically viable in the medium term. The project muettherefore be considered as the first (and indispensable) phase in themodernization of agriculture of the Antananarivo plain. In a not toodistant future, another project should address the more difficult issueslinked to the inadequacy betwaen the existing natural resources of the area,the present distribution of population, and the present division of laborand distribution of activities among this population.

Pov.rty Aso cts

6.12 The study of urban-rural exchanges in the Antenanarivo areaand the more datailed study of socioeconomic conditions in the southeraplain hava provided evidence of the extremely precarlous situation of themost part of the rural and urban population of the project ares. In thesouthern plain for inasance, the average family income is 382 below thewhole city average, vith more than 752 of this lncome obtained from theinformal sêetor. 30S of the population of the plain fall below the povertythrashold, cstitated at FMG 606,000 per household sand per year in 1989. 562of the housing units have one single room, vith less than 2.7 square materpar inhabitant. More than 302 of the houses are flooded oach rainy season.The sanitary conditions are disastrous and the infant mortality ls above thecity average. In the rurel areas, as already mentioned, the poor conditionsof irrigation and drainage and the amall sle of farms also contribute to

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the v.ry loy level of mon.tary income of farmero, despite the proxLimty ofthe urban mark.t.

6.13 All componenta of th. project, although not specificallyfoeused on poverty alleviation but more on the r.viving of the *conomicactivities La the are&, vill inde.d bonofit the poor, directly for theexisting population of the plain end of the "quartier de la gare' end of thefarmers, and also indirectly as explained in the macroconu&mjic anlysis ofthe project prosonted in Annez 11.

Prolect Riaka

6.14 Th. most comuon riaks associated vith developuent projects arelinked vith veaknesses of the institutions involved. This vill be addressedby provision of technical assistance and training to theso institutions. Inaddition, the Project Unit vill b. La charge of carefully monitoring sndcoordinating the implementation process.

6.15 Th. major risk of the proposed project La inherent to theeconomic situation of the couutry. The project viii dramatically lmprovethe living conditions of an important part of tbo Antanuarivo population,of vhich 307 te below the poverty level (soe para.6.12). Their capacity topay for im :oved services depends on th general economic environment. Thefirat budr of economic recovery appeared in 1988, and have been gatheringstrength since then. Hovever, the recovery la still extremely fragile andnarrowly-based. In any case, the severe economic decline that has occuredover an entire generation vill require years snd years to be reversed. Theremedies are clearly beyond th. responsibility of this specific project, but-ts impact on the Antananarivo Region La not negligible (see Aunez 11).

6.16 Another risk la associated vith the proposasl to privatisemost of the municipal services: sewerage, collection and treatment of solidvastes and, through a public entity (SI), operated by a private company, theday to day vork of operation and maintenance of the flood control anddrainage facilities constructed or rehabilitated under the project. Up tonow, the Municipality bas bean ideologically opposed to any privatisation,but the vind has changed vith the 1989 elections. The political environmentnow favors liberalization and privatisation, vicih minimizes this risk.

Impact on the Luviropmet

6.17 Two different definitions of the physical environment of theProject can be given s i) the entire vatershed of the Ikopa River and of itsaffluents, upstream of the Antananarivo Plain; and ii) the more limited aresdirectly affected by th. various project components, wilch la to say thepartly urbanized and partly agricultural Pla,tx of Antananarivo.

6.18 The protection, rehabilitation and management of the entireIkopa vatershed are beyond the scope of the proposed project. Hovever,these issues are addressed in the Forest Management Project mentioned inpara. 1.29 . This project includes actions aimed at arresting thedegradation of the unstable, nearly deforested ferralitic soils of the

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tsnaty over an .ea of 16,200 ha in the Antananarivo Region. In addition, allmited envirocm.ntal assesbment vas carried out for the proposed project,and sore urgent actions have beau identified for the protection of thevatersieds (see Watershed Nanagement Plan in the Project File). A study forthe protection of the vatersheds has beon added to the project, sad theEnviroument Progrem (PE) vill contribute to finance the firet phase, mainlyreforestation around the reservoirs of Hantasea and Tsiazompaniry.

6.19 The proposed project vill contribute to the efficiency ofthese two environment projecte in the Antananarivo area by ensuring a morerational land use, by providing an efficient flood varning system, byproviding protection againast the seasonal and exceptional floods which isadapted to the requirements of the various settlments and activities, bymanaging the circulation of vater throughout the plain, and by improving thecapecity of householde, aterprises and institutions of the rogion to plantheir activitles in a longer term horison and to b. more respectful ofenvironmental constraints (se. Annex 12).

6.20 The present situation Ln the caity's louer arase, in tho seml-urban sami-rural plain of the right bank of the Ikopa River, mni in theirrigated plain has alraady beeu prssented in othar sections of thls report.Iudeed, duriLg the past three decades, areas of concentration of populationand activities, such as tha Antananarivo Plain, have roceived val-y little,if any, public investment Ln infrastructure. This lack of publicinvestnant hms not only forced the population to live in extram_lypracarious and insalsbrious conditions, but has also constituted the maincause of the environumental degradation of the Antananarivo area.

6.21 WithIut the proposed project, farmers, urban dvellers andlocal govarnments vould be lass and less able to rehabilitate and even tomaintain thair ovn assets and vould inevitably be more preoccupied byimmediate survival than by tomorrov's aenvironuental problesm, as clearlyshown in e hi socio-ecenomic surveys of the Southern Plain. The grovingpressura of rural population on poorly maintained and highly fragmentedagricultural lande and of urban population on unprepared araas, deprived ofdrainage and basic infrastructure, vould have devastating affects on th.physical enviroDment.

6.22 The proposed project, which mainly aias at restoring the basicdrainage and flood protection infrastructure of the area, vill haveextremely positive effects on the imuediate enviroemant. Among the directeffects of the project, it is vorth mentioning the follovingt reduction offlooding risks and submersieti; loeered vater leval in the Plain for a givenseries of rainfalls; disimmersion of draies sad savers in the lowerdistricts of the city and effective funetioning of sto.mwater and vastevatersysteas, vith its impact on the transmission of malaria, nov the leadingcause of death in children under 5 years of age; and the collection andtreatmont of solid vastes. The proposed project vill alseo have indirect,but also significant, impacts on the environnent by changing the attitude ofhouseholds and local institutions who, during the past decades, have beenforced into poor envirormental management practices.

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6.23 The proposed project vill have slight negative envtronmeutalimpacts. Untreated vaste vater vlll be pumped and discharged Into thé MmbaRiver. At prmenut, thé bota of Mamba River is tmpoverished folloving yearsof pollution abuse. la addition, these vaste waters vill be diluted vithrainuater collection as vell as by river flous, thus disturbance to aquaticbiot, Ln MNmba River vill be minor. la the longer term, vastevatertreatment muet be considered in future vater management plans for theAntananarivo Region. Novever, aet this tire, vaste vater Lreatmont beyonddilution con not b. justified. The project vill slightly increase floodiugin rice fields, outside the polder, during floods vith recurrenciesexceeding 50 years. This vill only marginally affect production In hesvyflood years and vill not cause additional enviroumental damage beyond whatvould occur ln natural floods.

!

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VII. AG9EEHENTS REACHRO AND EECENaTION

7.01 During negotiations, assurances vere obtained from th.Covernuent on the folloving points:

(a) the Project Advance Account vill be replenish.d every yearup to FNg 2 billion (para.3.15);

(b) the Government vill convene, by December 31, 1990, th.steering com-ittee to oversee the execution of the Project(para.4.01);

(c) the Government vill implement th. progrma of landacquisitionlexpropriations, and vill include the necessaryamounts ln its budgets (para.4.10);

(d) the public entity SI (Etablissement Public) for operationand maintenance of the flood control and drainage facilitiesvill be established prior to Doec. 31, 1992 (para.4.15);

<e) an agrement betweon MA and SI vill assure the delivery ofadequate dilution discharges both for the Andriantany and C3Canals (para.4.17);

Cf) quarterly progress reports vill be prepared by BPPA andsubmitted to IDA vithin two months after th. end of theconcerned quarter (para.4.27);

(g) a completion report vill be prepared by BPPh and submittedto IDA vithin six months of th. Credit closing date(para.4.27) ;

(h) budget of Si vill b. revieved every three year by theGovernrent and adjusted to the real needs of th. agency. TheGoveroment vould cover any deficit. Hovever, any surplusvould be deposited in FINU (para.5.10);

(i) th. Association vill be given the opportunity to revievand comment, every year, an updated three yoar investment sadexpenditures program for the urban sector, submitted byOctober 31 (para.5.16); and

(j) project accounts of BPPA, the Faritany end FIVREN vill beaudited by external auditors acceptable to IDA, and auditreports vill be submitted to IDA vithin six months of theclose of the fiscal year (para.5.18).

Conditions of Credit Effectivenesa

7.02 (a) effectiveness of the CCCE loan (para.3.08)1

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(b) *stablisbment of a Project Advance Accouat, in FMg,in theCentral Bank, and initial depcait of FMg 1.0 billion(para-3. 15)g

(c) signature of implemontation agreements betwe.n BPPA andsMTP, MA, NF, FIVREN, Noteorology and BPU, to defineresponsibilities for project implementation (para.4.07);

(d) decision on the financial resources, noodod for operationand maintenance of flood control and drainage facilities,satisfactory to IDA (para4.15)i and

(e) promulgation of a decree protecting the irrigated aresagainst urbanization (para.4.18).

Condilions of Disbursement

7.03 (a) a contract (contrat de garance) should be signed betweenFIVREN and a private firm, for operation and maintenance ofthe severage systea, and a vater tax, at a rate acceptable toIDA, should be introduced by FIVREN, prior to say disbursementfor the severage compeonent (para.4.19);

(b) contracts should bo signed betveen FIVREN and privatefirms for collection and treatment of solid vastes prior toany disbursement for rehabilitation and expansion of thecomposting plant (para.4.20);

(c) land legislation sehould be amended to make madatory therecording of any transfer of omnerahip of land, prior to anydiabursemont for the Land Registry component (para.4.23);

(d) promulgation of measures acceptable to IDA to controlurbanisation Ln the South Plain, prior to any dilbursement forthla component (para.4.26); and

(e) satisfactory implemantation of the r.s-ttlement plan priorto any dilbursement for the Andriantany Canal and the NmbaDike (para.4.11).

_e eadatloa

7 04 Subject to tbe foregoing conditions, the proposed project tssuitable for an IDA Credit of SDR 23.0 million (US$ 30.5 million).

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ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPMENT PROJECTDetailed Protect Description

Annex 1Page 1 of 7

1. Ikopa and North Dikes

This component vill provide protection against 100-year flood in theAntananarivo Plain and 10-year flood in the Lanrera Plain.

The vorks include:

(a) improvements on the left bank of the Ikopa River:-leveling the dikes near Anosizato;-heightening the protection dike of the Sisoany River;

(b) improvements on the right bank dike of thé Ikopa Rivers-light raising of the level of the existing dike(1245.2 in Anosizato, 1253 in Ampasika);

-reinforcement of the dike through shaping, installation ofprotecting rocks, and construction of erosion protectionjetties in sensitive areas;

(c) improvements to the north dikes along the Numba Rivers-heightening of the existing dike left bank; and-shaping of the dike slopes t1. 5/1 on the river side, 1. 8/1on the Plain aide);

(d) construction of a new dike between the previous one and theSovimasoandra "Tanety;u

(e) construction of platforms for resettlement of people living onthe existing dikes.

2. Flood Warning Svstem

This component consists of provision and installation of measuringand communication instruments to obtain quickly required information incase of exceptional flood forecast.

The project vill finances

(a) construction of 4 automatic hydrometric stazions withteletransmussion system, and access roads (2 kms);

-Anosisato station-Ambohimananbola station-Anoeva station-Ikops upstream station

(b) Rehabilitation of Antelomita station vithout teletransmissionsystem;

(c) equipment of 3 radio relay stations (Meteo, Angavokely-PTT andbassin AM);

(t) electronic equipment of the central station includingimprovements to the existing office and the vorkshop;

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Annex 1Page Z of 7

(e) technical assistance of meteorologist engineer (3 months)5

(f) equipment for the central office which includes gaugingequipment, apare parts and vehieles (2);

(g) radio tests of the system.

3. Drainage

This component vill improve the existing deficient drainage system inthe Antananarivo Plain.

The works vill be carried out in two stagess

(i) the firet stage consiste int-enlarging andl dredging the Andriantany Canal on its urban partbetween Anouibe South and RN4;(capacity 10 m3 is - 6.2 km length);

(i) the second stage includest

-same works as above on the northern part of the AndriantanyCanal, to the RN 54 (6.4 km length);-construction of a north retention pond (about 12 ha);-construction of a "Amenee Canal" between the pond and thepumping station (9 n3/s - 2.1 km length);-construction of the northern part of C3 Canal (7 m 3ts - 5.3 kmlength) between the 67 ha area and the pumping station;-construction of a retention pond (20 ha) downstream therailway station basin and an overflow (length62 m) on the Andriantany canal to discharge in this pond.

4. Pumpina station

The pumping station vill be located at the north-west corner of thePlain, downstream the Amenae Canal, near RN 58 - the outflow vill be 9m3/sec.

The vorks includes

(a) civil workX for the station: earth and concrete works;

(b) installation of hydraulic and hydromechanic equipments-centrifugal pumps (4 unit flow 3 m3/sec., total piezometrichead - 5 m);-non-return check valves, fine screening and valves;

(c) Installation of electric equipment:transformer (1000 IXVA), breaker switch, high voltage tallycouat, and low voltage equipment;

(d) construction of a syphon under the Andriantany Canal with 4valves (2.5 x 2.5 m);

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Annex 1Page 3 of 7

(e) construction of security overflow (15 m length) downstream theAmenie Canal.

5. Irritation Canal (GR)

The project will finance a new irrigation canal which vill besubstituted for the existing Andriantany Canal becoming exclusively adrainage canal.

The works includes

-construction of the canal for a maximum flow of 9 m3/s, 4reaches (15.71 km length);-construction of a downstream regulation system withinstallation of automatic valves (4);-construction of main intakes (10) and secondary intakes (34);-construction of security overflowa (4, lOm length);-construction of crossing under pavements, foot bridges andopening up drainage syphons.

6... Irrixation Rehabilitation

Actually the irrigation systema in the Plain north of the Mamba River(Laniera Plain) and between the Mamba River and the 67 ha area, aredeficient due to inadequate capacity of the canals which are in badcondition. With the construction of the new main irrigation canal (GR),the irrigation system vill dispose of sufficient irrigation flow.

The project vill finances the rehabilitation of 2910 hectares,carried out in 3 stages:

The works includet

-rehabilitation of existing irrigation canals (secondary andprimary network - 103 km)-construction of secondary irrigation canals (3.5 km);-rehabilitation and construction of intakes, outlets andinstallation of non-return check valves.

7. Urban Sanitation

This part has two components: Severage and Solid Wastes

A. Severape

This component consista of rehabilitation and expansion of seweragefacilities in the lowest and most densely populated area of the city.

The main objective is to separate waste vater from the existingdrainage system and to aim at facilitating its maintenance which isactually deficient.

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Annex 1Page 4 of 7

The works includes

(a) rehabilitation of 2 existing main pumping stations located in 67ha and Isotry;

(b) rehabilitation of the existing primary and secondary network ofthe 67 ha and AmbodinIsotry areas (50,000 inh.);

(c) construction of a sewerage network in Isotry and Tsaralalana,(40,000 inh.) including primary and secondary network (0200 to400 mm 7500 ml), pumping stations (3) and house connections(3000);

(d) construction of the Analakely severage network (100,000 inh.)including a primary main pipe (0400 mm- 1700m), secondarynetwork (0200 to 300 mm - 5000 m) and house connections (8300);

(e) construction of the sewerage system network in Antanimena andBehoririka areas (60,000 inh.) including primary and secondarynetwork (0200 to 300 mm - 5,000 ml) pumping station (3) andlhouse connections (5,500).

8. Solid Waste

This component will improve the operation of the existing compostingplant which is presently under the responsibility of the Fivondronana andvould be operated by a private firm.

The works includes

(a) construction of a reception pit of 300 m3;

(b) installation of a weighing station (30T) and a traveling crane;

(c) construction of a concrete pavement on the existing fermentationarea (10,000 m2);

(d) construction of a control station and improvements in theexisting building.

8. Draina.e South

This component consists of significant improvements in the southernpart of the Plain. Therefore, developing the drainage and road network andreducing the riske of flooding, it vill improve the living conditions forthe existing settlements (about 135,000 inh.) and make possibleurbanization in this area located near the administrative downtown.

The works inelude:

(a) construction of 2 retention ponds: South Pond (20 ha) andintermediate pond (4 ha) surrounded with maintenance gravelroade (4.2 km);

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Annex 1Page S of 7

(b) construction of an overflov (40 m length) on the AndriantanyCanal;

(c) construction of the southern part of thé C3 canal (3.5 km);(d) construction of a pritmry gravel road network (5.1 km).

9. Land Reitstry

The project vill help update the urban cadastre of the city and theplain of Antananarivo on an area of 55 km2 by providing equipmeat andfinancing of the operating costs during 5 years.

(a) equiyment financed under the project vill complete the equipmentsupplied under PE1 and vill include 15 vehicles, topographicequipmuent and office equipment;

(b) oioratint cots resulting from updating the cadastre andincluding personnel costs, office and vehicle costs sadmaintenance costs vill be financed by the project for fiveyears.

10. Land Tax Office

The actions proposed under the project aim at updating the tax base,Lmproving the tai collection, and strengthening the land tax office byproviding appropriate technicel assistance, equipment and financing ofoperating conts during these operations (18 months).

(a) Technical assistance includes the provision of:(i) one fiscal expert for 18 montha;(ii) one computer scientist for 8 months;(Iii) one sociologist for 6 months.

(b) eauiiment vwll be financed to make up the requirements ofthé office# tthe project vill finance thé purchase of lightvehicles (4), staff transportation vehicles (2), copymachine (1), office equipment and mini computer (1).

(c) oueratina costs resulting from updating the tex base andincluding office costs, vehicle costs and personnel coste,vill be financed by the project durin8 18 monthe.

11. Institution Buildina

The actions proposed under the project conslst of strongthening theinstitutional framework by

(i) creating a public entity (S1) to operate and maintain the floodcontrol and drainage facilztiesg

- 49 -

Annex 1Page 6 of 7

(ii) transferring to private companies operation and maintenance of:-the sewerage system (S2a);-the collection and treatment of solid vastes (S2b);

(iii)create a federation of users association (S3) to operate andmaintain the irrigation system.

The project will provide equipment, technical assistance and stafftraining for theses entities:

(i) Public entitv (S1)

(a) equipment will be financed to make up the requirements ofthe entity. The project vill finance the purchase of lightvehicles (9), dump truck (1), tanker truck (1), shovelloader (1) hand tools and office equipment;All the equipment of BPPA vill be transferred to Si at theend of the project;

(b) training vill include advance training abroad for highlevel staff (4 periods of 3 months each) in management,finance and organization.

Cii) Severage company (S2a)

(a) eouitments the project vill finance the purchase of officeequipment, micro computer (1), copy machine (1) lightvehicles (6) dump truck (2) and snubbing bailer (2)g

(b) technical assistance includes the provision of oneeperation and maintenance engineer for 12 months;

(c) staff trainina vill include on the job training and a 18monthe training course abroad for high level staff,provision (3 period of 6 mor.ths) in management andoperation of severage network.

(iii)Solid vaste company (S2b)

(a) eaqulments the project vill finance the purchase of officeequipment, microcomputer (1), copy machine (1) lightvehicles (4);

(b) te_hnical assistance includes provision of one engineer for12 months;

(c) staff trainine includes a 3-month training abroad for theengineer in charge of the organization of garbagecollection.

- 50 -

Annex 1Page 7 of 7

(iv) Federation of Users Associations (S3)the project vill provide adequate equipment to this entity incharge of maintenance of the irrigation area: office equipment,vehicles (7), dump truck (1) and shovel loader (1).

12. Proleet Unit

A Project Unit (BPPA - Bureau du Projet de la Plaine d'Antananarivo)Wvo created in Deeember 1987 under the authority of the President of theAntananarivo Faritany.

Vehicles, computers and office Equipment vere financed by the PPF.With the recruitment of a computer specialist, the local team vill becompleted.

The project vill provide technical assistance, and finance operatingcosts during project tmplementation.

(a) Technical AssistanceThe technical assistance team vill be as follow:

Specialist No. man Remarksmonths

Sanitation Engineer 1 54 ExpatriateSanitation Engineer 1 60 LocalIrrigation Engineer 1 48 Expatriate-Financed

by French cooperationSpecialist of irrigationusera associations 1 48 Expatriate-Financed

by French coope:ation

(b) Oueratîna costs resulting for coordination and implementation ofthe project, including personnel costs, vehieles costs,maintenance costs of the equipment and office supplies vill befinaneed by the project for 6 years. Personnel seconded byministries (9 persons) is not ineluded in the operating costs,since their salaries vill still be supported by their respectiveministries.

Lami aaguiailieu Civi ola O.l a taahai.al AmIabatmo Trailala. Eceraieg ae..wae CMmIV#o. Servie.a ToutCo.~~~~oaoa1 ~~~For. Loi. lana For. Lms. Tas.. Fo. Lmc. T.,.. For. Lmc. Tas.m For. Lac. Tassa Fow. Lmc. Tes.. For. Lac. Tams. Fer. Lic. tomte TOTAL

R..attlaat ~~~~~~~0.0 119.7 0.0 M0.9 M81. 190.$ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 925.2 816.2 190.8 1030JIbo"a mai Okrg. 01k. 0.0 M5.7 0.0 290.8 MW5. à M.S 0.4 2.1A 19.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 299.7 1518.9 M4.1 5100.7r*md vemieo Oj.ala 0.0 0.0 0.0 04.8 45.1 10.4 405.8 l*.0 00.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7 00.4 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 502.3 194.5 809.0 ?148.0

Aairlaatsag Assai ~~~0.0 99.4 0.0 072.0 1U0.? 00.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 372.0 263.1 00.4 T1UAAmirima ~~rth.Amoama .. i 0.0 410.2 0.0 704.8 MA M0A. 89.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 004.2 70.9 l7n.1 1730.2ci c.u.ator ~~~~~~~0.0 794.0 0.0 son.o 710.8 '9O'.':0.5 L.2 à:.' 0.0: : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0'o 'o .0o 0.:0 0.0 0.:0 o.0 ' 109. 15953.2 400.4 3114.006total 0.0 3804 00 089126107.4 0.4 .MU0. . 00 0. . 00 0. . 00 0. .W0010582617.3 052. 6815.4pmie 8sf.i 0.0 02.1 0.0 1002. 400.0 M0.* 7s.6 uM.. uo.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 707.0 405.5 071.irriOTti.. Camai CR 0.0 544.4 0.0 dm90 181119.4 90.2 M.1 21.0 444.* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80107.0 204.0 1000.4 900.3Irrîgtiabso %M*& llt.lima 0.0 04.8 0.0 290.9 127.5 MJ M8.0 00.7 02.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8140.9 1m87. 578.2 5m78?'l'O« amiati11.;0srgmcy Ph... 0. . . 00.8 100. 78.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.3 100.0 71.2 045.15Ph. ::o000 . 7877.8 811.7 18000.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7877.3 8101.1 L000. 82t».05.6total 0.0 0.0 0.0 700.0 S02.7 I80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 700.0 3527.1 105.0 8200.8

soi id v..t. 0.0 0.0 0.0 178.0 00.9 00.2 70.0 17.0 45.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2114.1 90.0 05.5 420.2t»oimffa SaomI 0.0 995.8 0.0 290.5 124.5 02.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2900I.5 2241.0 029.2 m577.l"aveFolotry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 125.0 M7.8 975.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.5 1110.2 110.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1015.1 1009.4 I09.4 400.0 U

ltrUMMIRls Lai F8acmi. O 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 81.0 29.0 400.4 81.0 77.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.3 281.4 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 02.0 374.3 818.5 1510.7

Pulc 58iuS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 402.8 41. 1.8 0t.0 0.0 0.0 7781. . . . . . 00 00800 5. 1. 0.Casq..a~~02a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 005.8 50.9 411.7 100.0 89.8 29.7 190.5 8.0 1.8 0.0lO 0.0 0 0.0 0:00 00.0' 0.0 0.0 005.0 00.5 4439.30 1488.77li =2% M. 0.0 0.0:0. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0i 0.0'o 0.0 0.0 0.0 o 0.0 0.0o 0'.0o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ol id w.ès C~asmw 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.1 7.4 72.9 147.5 10.4 24.9 49.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 270. 25.5 90.2 097.7Foi. e 4 Ihene lsalat. M8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 812.7 00.0 120.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 312.7 30.8 216.4 509.7'0011 botai 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88111.9 100.5 100.8 30.0 30.2 1.0S 517.0 02.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1IM.0 194.7 1000.7 W21.4swail. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1000.0 1817., 2157.4 1548.0 107.81 257.4 l91.$

Ssarvialo. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10409 700.0 852.9 10440.9 705.0 852.9 270.7ProJ.49 unis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 127.7 400.8 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 110.2 250.9 00.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1304.0 72.7 190.7 M221.7WF MA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1100.0 0.0 0.0 1100.0CM 'ome 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 292.1 0.0 0.0 292.1

TOTAL 0.0 3100.0 0.0200.8 11ste.7 015.1 023I0I.0 I.9 008.0 290.0 M-* 01.0 412.4 00.5 21.0 7150.0 10005 170.08190.7 07.* 010.3 89 102.2 I935. 1 10192.7 0010.0Pries Valsa, Ou 190.

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Liai aoqlalai*Ia Civil aomps emioesa T.câiual damialmac 7eaiago Oarsiiag «xpas CoaaalUmg sanies. Total

Co~~~~mal ~~For. Lm,. ton." l'or. La.. Tassa Fan. Un.Tae a a. Taie» For. Lac. U. For. Lm.. Taas F.. Lac. Tael"Fr. LaF Tie TTU

Rofta.sies. 0.0 118.6 0.0 MJ0.2 .? 141.11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 755.2 430.2 101.0 I30.3

thflp Mmd Nu rtA.Olle 0.0 2010.0 0.0 M.1 I.0 510.'I 81.5 11.2 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2438. 120.9 U0.3 oe.8

FIad Waraia 5s0.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.2 04.0 18.0 812.0 98.0 200. 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 24.2 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 457.01 112.7 M0 01.8

UnaImaga CasaI.Aadnl.ala. Pham. 1 0.0 100.9 0.0 M.0 1403.7 70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 320.6 244.7 70.0 041.6A.dnius lbi,".*umaa Canal 0.0 410.4 0.0 610.31 201.8 13.7 18. 8.21 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 025.0 003. 130.0 1442.5Ca 0.0lests 0.0 710.0 0.0 1044.7 M1.4 M0.7 4.8 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1249.0 1244.o 207.0 2701.1s

li boali 0.0 112.4 0.0 2181.4 8.0 4118.0 10.0 0.0 4.11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mi0.2 2172.0 472.0 404.3

Posoine S"iaim. 0.0 50.0 0.0 075.1 878.0 13.8 011.0 M.7 M00. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 148011.1, 0257 5110.2 208.0

irrnigalie Canal aI o.o 511.0 0.0 Wf18. 1570. M0.7 00.0 21?.? M.1, 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3071.5 2800.0 1087.0 700.8

g.nilalium a " Fa.hloaioa 0.0 800,4 0.0 MU1.2 050.7 475.8 13.0 45.7 31.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2858.2 1490.7 507.0 43150.9

unimes aitalàiLafescos'e, Fmaa 0.0 0.0 0.0 275.5 140b. 808.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 140.3 03.0 407.4Ph*sa" 0.0 0.0 0.0 4M2.0 2112.0 100.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4929.8 2112.0 1050.4 008.9

26talai 0.0 0.0 0.0 O5.S M.1 112.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52063 2261.1 3112.0 11080.3

%el id vsis" 0.f 0.0 0.0 12.0 87.7 27.2 50.8 12.0 80.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 174.1 70.3 50.5 80.0

>nreafl. Seuil 0.0 05.0 0.0 19431.0 M0.9 410.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1943.5 1092.0 410.5 405.0 ~amo lagi "Pr 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 047.2 M1.8 M8.* 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 428.0 0001.? 00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1870.2 J1115.0 02.9 3312.2

.trest&anla Liai FiscaL. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 110.4 432.7 40.2 00.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 07.0 M1.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 700.3 122.6 250.2 120.2

lqsipaaa et F.él k Uli 1iIiieCiélie rbiul, SI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 017.7 51.2 M85. 0.0 0.0 0.0 04.8 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 302.0 40. 1 230.4 03.5$assiaga compoq0b2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 300.4 80.0 20.5 110.5 10.4 20.0 140.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 060.8 01.2 821.4 1049.3Fi.. Aulaomm 11. 12e 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05.11 id ais Caop"" mA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80. 8.0 00.5 12.O 18.4 20.0 41.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 221.2 28.3 70.7 801.2fai. cf han. Assëoia. m0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 M.0 22.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 285.0 22.0 100.7 424.5

Ulttali . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01001.5 8.7 75.* 247.0 80.9 41.7 284.5 17.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1500.0 147.4 M0.1 2M8.5

latdies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1425.2 88.0 28.4 1428.2 155.0 2504.4 1012.0

nqsiawioei 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 124.5 006.2 207.1 1240.5 584.2 207.1 2047.9

",àcàfl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 85.8 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.4 120.4 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1141.4 505.3 835.0 8J72.2

W" M0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1100.0 0.0 0.0 1100.0CMe havma 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 292.1 0.0 0.0 20.1

Total h.. roas 0.0 040.2 0.0 1000.0 0174.9 4071.5 800.8 051. 200.8 171. 400.4 12J. 8301 42.1 104 5701 88420 180. 200.7 4072 008.5 2900.2 151.2 7103.7 5307.1

r%yaicsi Coali.auuis 0.0 0.0 0.0 278.0b 110.4 001.9 404.7 98.5 MA2. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.0 88.4 83.? 12.7 00.4 20.7 3845.7 1570.0 904.0 5021.

"ri Cmtiagasuiee 0.0 80.0 0.0 420.8 MA7. 917.0 M0. .0 W0 57.4 M0.9 WA. 40.5 77.2 0.4 0.4 12.1, 201.1 20.0 40t.4 13.&850.1 0040.0 202.0 1045.0 10510.0

TOTAL 0.0 300.0 0.0 2000.8 1g1oo.7 800.0 SM86. 12m.0 30.42001.0 85.0 201.0 412.8 80.5 21.0 7M80. I08.5 170.0 3181.7 0«2.* 010.8 31001.8 1098.0 10192.8 0000.8

.'.cs Vsles* Ose. 1000. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~0

OU

CC« MA lm lm un lUS 100 19914 1995 leu TOTALfin. Fin. Far, LM. 14*_ iPa, LM. T.,.. F_c LM. Va_ Rur. t . T.... Fer. Lac. lasse Foc. i. i Tas for. T..c . . .-.s .. .de l T"a.. vêt.1

.Foa40011 O £20 O O 120 O 820~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ u Irr miad iO0i O 42 ° o 1 g O O a" O 20

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.M"l-| I W1"0 Pm0 m7 IU Ob M*0 U s

CtOli& Wti TU g«a titt 4 _ 90 ttAl «7 O 21Uun&-bll$ tOti 47 W: tCI:7t * :. o i 3 aiut ttii 0 a O 0 di O S a

q...s. a, .s 102 leu u 4 si us0 so 7 un,,il 7 i Md Diua 102 t4 lU 4ti mi ia - 4t 2su? lm0 O2 7SuP logja,.igU sg89 am0UI 3 84 uti 70 tu 1u8 w au au01 41 vaa a m 1144

.#;wrim |bW Wti 41e 2e lm S ila 04 41 a10t4 SOI 5 2 me U

a0 ColIcu lm Wc84 118t 747 S N@ au 2ns USa HM am 400 am1§", tett lm ° lm°S Uo lmS 714 US 331m

.; go~~022 W0 go 40 20 as ObMouas 10am 40 l 1 lu 20 le 44 SI t 107 fé, sa 289fl.oe a 00 474 US 100 40 ais Wi . 377 10 1448Fiaos. a MM 738 US 14 710 aU tuo 11»ras. iA un 420 au u "40 195 es 5

P..._ Wi"2 Ot° 1020 01 US 10 *01 S20 17t 899

fbe» - t 0 28 mm na ° i 22}Un1m)Sr2 I e Sla y4»Ui521 m u2i Uo

fima kaimitioaa.,... Ra. 0 73 i Ir 27 84 meS 100 71 au5 uta.. a son 2119 108 484 2949 lm0 00 200 99 495 Mn7 3102 Mi0 1212 &I

.0114 vue. tom0 119 48 41 12 se 43 244 99 S' 420,..s. ... s... un au US ai, ltn su 209 910 390 195 PM00 8240 420 4770 I

am i U,I -tYa son2 7U 20 47 ti 9W l U ti 177 U 20 M MO 8 2 44 sU - 2S 201 205 157 124 115 lm 1005 4100-r.a bai Fiscal____. ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 4_ sin 189 020 374 811 1511

-à ts1iSi' i g1* a 102 aU 41 US W0 aSd 84 34 soi1 53 i> W0F0i.t blMiii 80

ecce mmu 111 a 71 80 2 25 40 2 20 log il SU 32SU... 10201 438 421li91 148 la 17112 18 70 715 72 W3 1114

P"Iio UUI% 2b~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I

SIsO uIblity 28CCC mm 9 0 O la O O 9 O O 30 O O 80ami.. un do a 2095 la 80 78 9 et 241 29 ou aU

P40ii UtiitsS au ai as lis 80 14 tu0 313 ai 28 7

Fiai.n henu Obr-U.0>-4 lmu *5 7 45 O y 33IViC.owe oaI0F ui' lmS 72 a 127 O 90c.... CD-.. unm s SA 4 la 2 8 145 10 24 lU

M ki luiam imik son 70 S3 18 3 41843 & 7 411 40 a0 m2Fliei sUAb<Anu0Wwe)-8 Wun ns y go m 17 te ego 24 la m7sol d a.i mas 92 se as os si 0 m1 ta 31 m4

-. "puvlsio un m20 mU si m3 u41 7l au4 W 74 m8 884 17 m1 m0 20 1447 700 358 S''eecs hi6 l g0o020 M 1214 M1 8 Zb$ 117 27 M 123 259441M 20214 114a 2018M 10 191MIS M2 110 2

mt aum lm o o scoe o o uoe

1810 M5 24 118 IM8 M4 473 210 MO8 718 4210 200 092 SM0 2407 M 070 a SM20 M0 203 1440 -I 207 210 8901 5955 10195 mm00Tonne bp puma lm0 38114 wu0 131010 14742 un8 1047 Oum0

b>4-

ANTNbbIVO PLAIN FROJECT

Dot ilad *in eiag pionQJS 0/.iIl.io>)

uDA Ct ΠFAC TOTAL

Co ooemst Fer. Lec. Taiso Te4 I Fot. Loe. T »omTes a 1 fer. L4e. Tnxes Teot I For. Le.. Taxes TeteI Fer. Le.. Tos _ Ttl

Laad £cq.isilise 0.01 8~~l.108 3.018 0.108 8.08i_sl~Is.ss~ 0.0 0.08 l.2O eg* *.U 0.0 1.18

Cà mler" bis O.n O." I.» 4.16 0 1.28 *.«11 4.#PFc b srte. Syt *.4 *.07 0.0 O.60 C.1 0.70 0. d.9 O." 1.1U

mr1s_ Ccmis 0.8 0.06 0.1 0.J0 *.U 1.11 2.24 0.74 2.911 8.01 1.81 O.0 F.01P ne ist ati1 0.01 0.01 0.14 1.14 *.ô4 2.40 1.04 9.72 0.07 8.22lurial"les Cami OR 0.21 1.8 1.118 $.00 1.0 0.90 1.00 2.1U 1.08 0.64Irrigalies Zbskbiliehi.s 0.18 *.41 0.n1 8.16 1.20 4.8U 8.16 I.U 0."0 1.10U4t o 8ss t Silea 0.47 1.06 8.4 7.18 2.06 1.22 .81 0.02 .82 7.89 8.U 1.06 12.07Solid ste 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.88 0.24 *.0» 0.00 0.48Ore _ Saos8es 0.12 0.02 0.76 2.01 1.12 4.08 2.91 1.26 0.02 4.70Lasdkoist.r, 0.14 1.0 I.28 1.02 1.26 8.07 1.02 1.8» 1.10 4.30Olres%h Lad Fsal Op4. 0.04 .U 8 .86 0.2 0.84 1.10 0.02 0.87 0.81 1.11bpqulp.of Publie Utilitie 0.01 1.09 1.12 1.46 0.14 1.69 0.58 0.08 0.8 1.08 0.19 1.00 8.27Sites 0-.02 0.20 0.27 1.07 0.11 1.18 0.40 0.04 *.52 1.18 0.17 .20 1.97Sbuowssie 0.e7 6.8 0.42 1.01 0.04 2.20 1-.0 0.n O.8 2.71Preijst unit 0.07 0.17 0.24 *.18 0.08 1.24 6.10 0.08 1.80 0.7» 0.17 2.20PPF IDA 1.1 1. 1.U 1.U aCCC Adb»RC 0.29 0." 0.29 0.29 9.29

................................................................................................-. t.

TOTAL 0-. 8. 10».10 16.82 22.11 *.»0 0.008M.48 10.1 U .8.7 0.0 21.12 a.08 0.00 .00 0.08 80.« 10.8 10.19 U.011

Prilo vtius ,Oe. 1000.

'ae'

IoX,*

- 56 -

Annex 4

Page 1 of 1

NADAGASCAR

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT-------.-------------------------------

Disbursement Schedule(US$ million)

DISBURSEMENTSBANK ................... ... DisbursementFiscal Semster Canula- Percent ProfileYear Endins Semster tive of Total Madagascar

1990Jun 30,1990 0.0 0.0 O.O0 OZ

1991 Deceamber 31,1990 0.0 0.0 0.0OJUne 30,1991 4.0 4.0 13.2S 102

1992 December 31,1991 3.1 7.1 23.3ZJune 30,1992 2.3 9.4 30.8Z 222

1993 December 31,1992 2.3 11.7 38.4ZJune 30,1993 2.5 14.2 46.7Z 402

1994 December 31,1993 3.0 17.3 56.7ZJun 30,1994 2.2 19.5 64.0 602

1995 December 31,1994 3.1 22.6 74.22Juane 30,1995 3.0 25.6 83.92 7X-

1996 December 31,1995 2.5 28.1 92.22Jun 30,1996 1.9 30.0 98.6S 94Z

1997 December 31,1996 0.4 30.5 100.02Jua 30,1997 1002

Assumptio@t tbat the Credit te approved by June 1990.

|~~~~~~.M0 *-. .0 .00D~

----------------------------- ; - l-l A ---- ---

i: r -e a~~~le

I---T--------I----------------l--l---------!------------

____ _ _____ ___ _ _ __[ __

'-II----------I--I- ----------------------------

,1~ ~~~ F I%,I ln'I 1:u it

a.t.a ~ ~ ~~~~~---- --- -- n

130------------ ---------- -------------------

-------- ------- - LS - -- - -- - - - - -i

IO -- - -------- -e - e - - -eff__m - -- -- -

I .11111 I i- "I '1

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPIENT PROJECT

ORGlAICRAIIE DU FARITAN D'1IANTAWNRIVO

Superficie 582.283 km2FIVOlNoNm FILAISIIA FOIITAWY Population 3.339.289 hab

(1,> (285> (2807) Den.it. 57 hablkm2Budget annuel 3.608,3 million Mg

«IIISNL 1U; c~~oeiuim C=IFei «lItE AIEIIMIISTUAIPCOMML~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1c

CaEPErE?Ce D'ORM GERAL cp C DIIORD E CEUiEAL C<MPETENCE D'ORDRE GENERAL

*If. m.S &l- qeil h".6 a- as. te

1"| -f^"|F- tdee@_ gFi

lm Uè~~~~~~~~~ .m.. . ué..ASi..â .frecte..g «to*Ma êa.ô.. e . u. a.. deea I..ô.a md~ga I8.a .~

* du. ._....aeéa de la .# ô.â.à h- .e* lau.. i.-' a gj~q.. e i.a.I . "u.4 m Omo I6mdre~. Uifb. du. .uth la di &&... a. du. . m >* a...a.. a c..u*s. a. I. ,.a.*e ~~~~ r - a. rnde. -- ..6 .- . IDa.

cri

w

ANTAARIVO PLAIN D,IVLOFMEN IOJÉCT

oEANoaaeK Dui PIVONMDtIMA D'AUTAIWAAIVO UUivOnii?a

CIISUL ?OULIC~~~IL MMUISUM

l | INIETf XD |PUESIDSNT L' INTEIEUIJ

(PRESICoetx

_ l _ | ~~~~D.C.S.C.|

lDTACHE,ITNT

DtLCUtU

DIDECIOII DIIUITIOII DISSC IOII DISS DIIIICTCI Du DIltlTIO@I DESDES A"IItES À"ÀIUES AYAIRU IIEDICO DNELOPInT MainlsSSINlsTIv rIu Ie SCIA, WUT- aRIN ET DE ECIMIQERILLAS Tl S8OT?. LESTHNIIQUE

L . . ' L ' ' J <t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i

-60-

Anmex 6Page 3 of 3

X

il

- 61_Annex 7Page 1 of 1

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPHENT PROJECT

oRGANIORf RiE Dt L'OROANISMH Si CHaRGE Du LA PROTECTION DE LA PLAINE

NA - - - CL DLSMTON PUBLICMNI T LUTh

FARITJANT . _ _ .PIVONDRONAN l PRIVATE

LIlY ~~~~~~ ENTIT?DZDUtCS5 connilw

SERVCE Sam staYrct AOUSTUTZP lR SZONtPT Frr^^"eRt TEcsNrQE DES CRUUE

DIVISION DmVSIN DDVISION# DIVISIONSURVEILLU"Ct CNTUTt. DU TRAVAUCDES ouVEaGES UFLOITATION lN cmNrs àDE PROTE9CTION RÉ e t L'ET PRtSE

o

,id blet" t-test lmm -su et epnt -sit g-mss o-se c-e g m a-1-m -molg a Ui moi-i issls m.a

iismu ttui ezs #s9scîs esslie susii 4ossu gs i -messgua *sMIt v 'te 9suai ami9 liait le'sa lui .5j........................................................................................................................

*eu C' dut C i l'ut e-sciai t m'la -lti esu 8.cî1 -rios r c t-su ilsu $,M tU t 'lit t

ans cci mci g-9t ct -t -omsZ 9-n eèt -os t-ts s-s so- i-etU isu issut *-g s-Us I *l'mois t'elle ac slu s'Oo asmtfi e,-onu t'msm rome s-tis #Wstg vesa -us sa»smi i-ssii veisilneIs oeldO ,*Io-mulit e-oue:stto * ,em& 0-emsm osKim e'ouin oeemu ossue sus l'tous o-u1 tmsi e c-na t t-MisiU......................... ..................................................... ......................................................................

@-Ut -1"1*-lot lm t- lm $lm t'e $,d tt et - C -" op belt *- a *-t ai *lui Veg tt ^tq " *

aMi su i issu mi mi tist mi mi sI tes Mi Mi bss sI

S33iwuuo3G SulliJl5M> iuiiS I I_m

-63-i v-<sE :*. ;E:%S :s SNANC E:!S Annex 8

Page 2 of 6

S0 000 040 JlO0 00 E i'E

la eouo ooo * .

10000400000 j z

2s MOWI MO -~~~~~~~~~~I

saol Mo M MO -

q0 ow Mot OS '9

MARGE ŒZAUTOfINANC&XNT OIKSPOLE

EVOLUTIONe LA MA< PIumi OIAUTOFNANoe

4MOM0000W

4 -4 -- ee

' suni U ,1 +

wom

SITUATION CONSOICE GELA ftR5cIIO A LmN ET A PIGYP TENU

o

ex

#lénis ausi aem s-un mlen 8-etsuas mis item Saisf 0.1m gi.6i-u #.£tel siasi Vffl Siti s,et5tq

l'mi d'tuts o-ts mo gu ,lgi; -tus v-es v-oit ciii9 s- O,efflte,'S P 1Vtif5 V551du ÏCai semai ilsn gîstu4 01-mt osas nu0 LUI9 v ranisi e Ot'Il m.oé.

* '-u meut g-pj s'nit rsm e-uit Vo-té *-,g m-uq t-nb m,is t'u t'su tnt so 'fll s,is ,U*JS'li s- gg - i-it e-ft l'tu au19 g-g i-U t-g s'u o-s'l VUe -li .uMe~"lWmle»»

sou mis e-gis s-u u rtila t-ent é.cil 9liii s-ema a-ga s-es a-agi rtt t'il -au ,qflmu leu s, Sdgmseet ussi ussi net sosi geet mi 0-tiou: tvi ïï sos: ou-i,iuset uei eimt not uni Suftaid

sise o.eiot .-saat t-soa t-nui e-sit e-ansi lj'la lm-aî a-sus o-ina sune glusm VOOs on. »I' SjS

5505 mein mesn "e-eau tss m-ir g-oa a-i s-ti misa tste mis mi msi nmi -le muimu ,tS'

O'siil t-am a-seI a-t" s-"" j-sa ie-t rn-m soi, -m m,ît*918 s-ne11 bo-m estm reomli3l-d P'd -llo U.

lui mui moi net tsts mie test mot ouI oui sUet oui moi out un s3uu3

OAibvANY MWfiffl UIMIiSIAUd 53010

1! t l-sG !45Us!llS ' -!lE

tr. P.

- i i j

l ......... e.. AmI

. -i * IssttEzG- -1 Aitffl.

,* a * '' ''' ei *

- k. . . .f I wj. b.*

* a * Sa X l !|N * el5t

e9T .i *vif * a. . ai* l

T°T .I* IL .. *II

8 xeuuv~ :;uuj

amen **U5i5æit -. . _i

t e * I*"""**|, * . a *|,

a i ti* ''Yellt T E9t-i

ti etii si5Eli-t X

t1'.1 *g5^ ----. aU * n i

ew: a *w~iiv z* : E»»

oeil u!IsI1 '-.l |IWI .,. i8~~~~~~ eau :e * uS --* ,, ,,l

*~~~ S9

oa>t

t'est 15881 s'bit t'dit &'us *I1SI s'es 'ilu *'LL4 *le* ilff el& 6C9I' t'i 051it 'W.

Ve5 818 55l8 il's Cela 'lU mml Sle O01 lt i Lla <'II SU elle £11 PI'O15 SI l 19 IP CLl5 10l UCl SIl 50l ele SI OS £ mla . S.SP n

e.. g, g, *, **, *.* *~~'O sel Wees Olts *lS SItti § 'IL L'LCi 'iÆL L'OSt 'Ilt ami$ eust *'îS OUI Lîl III CLI *55- S'Il <'CI USti« 5 «1z 5uoe

SOI l'Il S'il LêS CII 5 *-5t 5*5 l'eU U'S l'I S'il S'l 5 SI WV Dl *'I SUItt_

1005 S'ILS SCIL COUL 0510 5518 LOBS S'USE SUE COU 'LU 0'4l 10 01 LP

S'u5 eSI e '* I * O'O 001 SOL *'It 5*U5 5'l5 101 'CI l' OS LU 5-t5 0t-S*I W-Æ I_lJWOs' 5P Sit 1- 1 L'E LU$ <'I Lt Etl 8'I 15 *' l'O O'5 Ci@ -I_1,ps8eI.lSid*'~ 50 **gj l'eX*-S ZS'I LUt L'il USEG 551 ICI CLI 'Il USE 1'1 CIS t ,m" Li t 't *- L *- '8 5T*' *'is 'It L'Et OU l'Et *-I CI* '1 SI CC -It-l S_'1

------------------------------------- ------- ---------

.. ___..........________.................................................................................................................________.____________...__....._

-"t *-btt *'st *- -tw *- 1,11t *-0,fl 1 *-1 q' t'" -Ægt &l tX -" -t t e

. . . ....... . . . . . . . .VNIUVWVDUY ANVININIYSIVUl' lu't g luSS_-1 *' 9' §-1 t-t t-1 l'1 *'l $'l 'l '@ @'@ tt~~~'a -@tIln_ t t

«- F« - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -* - - - - - * - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - -* *t -t ' g - ttX *X -$ 1 '$ 'l '1 'o- -oul

- 67 -

Annex 8u",u1I m@c.4«**z "'èr àSS Page 6 of 6

i i f- , j_

"-n - - -…w

- - n ___ _-

su, .1 *S sua*

.- -…-1- 1 1b 11

_; I I- II

_u, 'U U ISIl z

»-::am?é.#u s

- 68 -Annex 9Page l of 3

UTArwww VO PLAZN OEVIDUPMT PROJICT

SIPpoj..t.d C.oh Pl"

Usa~ ~~ ( 1o 1 100 187 88 80 e.. __ _ _ * _--- n es. _--s es- _--- _- *se *5 *-*-e---,---- ~~~~~. ..... .. .. .. .. _.......

P*ep e or0 U .0 .7.1 08.0 71.0 78.2 71.4 77.0 79.9Ou2loe. Centenl 140.0 147.0 114.4 102.1 171.2 170.? 187.ô 1n7.00&MI2POIOOO U.* $2.4 $8.1 *1.9 40.9 038. ôt.9 70.4Romel 2a.0 241.8 U8.8 20 .8 27n. US.8 30r.2 823.s

Total gzfltu« M.U48.0 *0.0 U2.0 187.2 1M.7 811.4 04M.1 0s.9

Oewenmsmr eoelbrib," lo.0 10.0 1.0 140.0 108.0 108.0 t10. 100.0F. I0êmy 108.0 1. 1 8.9 ZU.0 218.0 284.8 248.0 210. 21.11PIv..dro.uwfPte't. f "108.0 170.0 1I_.0 SUA 284.8 24.0 2MU.8 271.2

Tete l bweauoe 401.0 112.0 U47.2 C .$ 020.$ 1 1.9 0 7.8 702.4

SUMUIS/(SUUT'C) -1.0 4.1 11.2 28.7 44.8 40.8 0.^1 81.4Romme.l- 280.0 241.1 21U.0 208.0 27.0 2M8.8 800.2 828.8

CASH PIr.W m. 248.0 2MA.0 204.0 824.4 *4.S 844.8 *81.1ACCWUMU TI CAM fu M. 470.8 78..8 1UJ4. 10m.7 1008.0 2087.1 2892.1

- 69- Annex 9Page 2 of 3

* ~~~~~~~~~~~~UO*OS«CAIIMfANAW O PUIN OOVEL.OPn PUOJUCT

sE~a1SYSUNCOWUiY 83e............................

*ee lm lu l* ? toe Ce.

P.psa,gwi lUi~~~M 1038. 100.1 100.8 113.0 111.0 110.4 2.OpraliSoa AMammlaaame200.0 204.0 800.7 824.1 841.8 803.7 450.2 40.Reesuel ~~~~~~170.0 170.8 107.4 100.0 2000 238.4 301.1 27.8.

Non verbe 300.0 MAI. 5.8 833.0 300«0TalI Emp.tdltupn . 14. 211.8

Ammual Casmaushl. (8/ietIIloo) 81.27 3.08 84.41 81.29 Nit 80.01 41.00 44.00Wmosr Ton (Pk/08> 24.3 0.0 20.0 Ma. 80.0 83.4 84.0 88.7

vêet« ras 70.7 074.0 88.0 1.4 U7.8 1I3.8 143.7 1840.0

Te3el 04v.eueo 700~Y.7 074.0 008.# 1003 1171.8 1301.8 1438.7 1000.0

SuNPUJS/(OUCIT ; 02".7 MJ. U8.4 1820.3 840. 341.0 *2.2 81u.0Iaoa 1 170.0 118.0 187.4 108.0 2. 234.4 M80.1 27A.0

CAIN amOW 870.7 477.0 *4.4 870.2 U. .4 4*0.3 U8.8 0* .0

n e.. e Ce. CC CC . .__..._ lC

AC U CAI Fm 314.7 *t@.li 14.4 1781.4 22.0. 8. 214.2 32. 2t$7. -==@_ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~e --_- -_ --- *--- ----

- 70 -Annex 9Page 3 of 3

M vANA o PUn o rILOPS PROJOCT

Proijtd Cat* Floue(FN/iI Il se>*

100 100 100 1000 1007 10 1ms 201.0, .a .ee ._.e_._.... __e.

PepuemuwI 144.0 148.8 112.0 167.4 142.1 148.9 171.9 177.Op.vatI.e. £ Ualeteeaeoe 324.2 848.4 817.4 -87.8 *94.1 418.8 434.1 4U.2R.e,al 120.8 182.8 180.9 146.8 118.2 1*0.0 14.9 8.0Peoflt .mrgla 6.4 *2.S 04.0 0t.9 78.0 74.2 77.1 48.3

__ ._ .. o e.............. __ __

Total £.edttui,e 8J.0 08.1 114.0 744.4 70.2 l1s.7 *;2. mfl.

.svsms

Prop 'ty ajrC s 040.0 70.8 774.4 U1.8 U1.0 U J.$ 1888.1 18U4.7C0o_" saS 10.0 17.4 10.4 21.8 28.4 24.0 30. 27.1

Total Rwuuwu 4U. TMS 708.0 078.1 M0.4 IU.S 1W0. 1111.0

sl=U/CMCrr> 2.4 23.0 40.4 1M.0 160. 100.2 1 .8 *o.:RemaI 124.0 182.8 180.8 141.0 18.2a 140.4 10.$ 0.0

CASN PLOS 128.4 1U.2 190.3 2U1.8 8W.0 *20. $84.1 380.1ACCUSJMULA CASH PL 120.4 211.1 410.0 I.3 1042.1 1871.1 175.8 2M..4

ceeaccc__ece. .ec..eee_ cc.cc.eecc

- 71 -

Annex 10Page 1 of 2

MADAGASCAR&NTANANARIVO PLAIN DEVELOPHENT PROJECTAssumntions for Financial Prolections

Introduction

Financial projections have been prepared for the following exlstingand proposed entitiest

a) Faritany-Antananarivob) Fivondronana-Antananarlvo-Renivohitrac) Firaisana-Ambohimanarinad) SI (Etablissement Public à Caractère Administratif)e) Severage system company (S2a)f) Solid vaste system company (S2b)

Assumptions

Financial projections of local governments for the period 1988 to1997 have been extrapolated from actual financial statements of the pastfive years 1983-1987.

(a) The S1 revenues are based on the 1987 figures of the property tax forthe FIVREN and FA i.e., FMG 1.1 biii'n. To this figure an 80Z collectionrate la applied. Between 1988 and 1991 an increase of 32 per ennumis eestimated, however a 6Z increase for 1992 assuming the start of taximprovement effect, and an increase of 10 for subsequent five years then astable increase of 5S up to year 2000. 1993 would be the first year of S1operation. The cost of Si 0 and M Ls shared equally by the Goverrment, theFaritany, and the FIVREN and Finaisana of the Antananarivo area. TheGoverrment vill keep its contribution constant over the years while theFaritany vill keep up with FIVRENIFiraisana contribution. On theexpenditure side it te assumed an increase of 3S per annum for salaries and52 for O & N and renewel of equipment. In case of surpluses at end of theyear the Government could make transfers to FIHU.

(b) The severage system company (S2a) vould be financed by a water tax.This water tax calculation in based on the cost of running the system.This cout in added to the vater tariff. It is assumed that the increase involume vould b. 32 between 1986 (24 million m3) and 1990, then 5Z annualincrease up to year 2000 considering investments that are underwsy vouldincrease production capacity. It i estimated that the vater tex oould beFMG 20 in 1991 and vould increase by 10Z until 1994 and 52 aftervards. Thesame assumption used for Si, for personnel salaries have been retained forS2a. For O and M it i estimated that the increase vould be 5S until 1997and 7S aftervards due to networks extensions on autofinancing (250 millionTMG in 1996 vith an increase of 102 until 2000).

- 72 -

Annx 10Page 2 of 2

(c) The solid vaste system company (S2b) would raise ttc revenues fromthe surtax on property end vould follow the same principles and assumptionsas in the proporty tax mentioned above for revenue end expenditureprojections with two exceptionst on thé revenue aide the sale of compost iLadded wvth a 10 annuel increase from 1993 to 1997, end 5S aftervards. Onthe expense aide the profit margin allocated to the company handling thisactivity ls *etimted et 102 of total expenditures of operating the vastecystea.

- 73 -

Annex 11NADAGASC_R Page 1 of 7

affZS aD an a

Nacro- cono mic nd ReRional AoDroach

01 Tho Antananarivo Plain Development Project, vith ite numerouscomponents, will dramaticelly improve the physical and lnatitutional*nvironment ci the city of ntananarivo and of ite rural hinterland and thefunctioning of the economy ct the whole aroe. Uayond the usuel micro-economic analysit o the coste and bondfitr of each component, which teuwmmarized lA para 6.28 to 6.17, a more macro-economie and regionalapproach it necessary to capture the *hort tor erffectr of theimple ntation of this project on the rogional economy Lnd its longer termimpact on the structural changes of this regional economy. The tool uuedfor this macro-economic analysts, the local Social Accounting Katrix, wyllbo brieSly introduced firet. Ths local SAN wlll thon holp to characterizethe prsennt situation of the Antananarivo aré. and to identity key issuesthat the prMect will contribute teo addross.

The Local Social Accouatin matrui

02 Preliminary studios have h lped to idontity the main area ofinfluence ot the capital city, which corresponds to tfive PlVO tDROfàA witha total population of about 1.5 million inhabitants, of which 1 Millionurban Lnd 0.5 Million rural. t La Ln thls aoa encompalsiag the area ofinfluence ot tho Antananarivo Plain Projoct, that relatively dotailedmicro-econosic and economic surveys have beon undortaken, with particularemphasis on the *outhern part of the Antananarivo Plain.

03 Th o* studios were intondod to analyse the lovel, origin anddestination of expenditure and income of varLous catogoreis ot households,enterprisos (includin; the informal sector), local gove=mmnts, and centralgovernmont agenci4s, and to assena the bihavior of these varicus agents.The corresponding flove cf gocdb, services and monoy betwaon and among theagents of the Antananaiivo area ldentified, between tho capital city andits hinterland, and between the whole area and the reot of the country havebeon prosentod in the fors ot a local Social Accounting Matrix <SAM).

04 Thii analyste provided a rea onably good understanding of thetunctioa±ng of the reional economy, ot thi behavior ot the diffarentcatgoris t o ouschiolde, enterprises and Lnstitutions, and ot the factorswhich contribute te the remaikably low lèvel of activity and xchangeswhichi makb the eI-urban and rural periphery of Antananarivo ont ot thepoor.st aims of the country.

os Following the ae me thodology, à draft national SAX has alao beenpro,.*vd, although on a much weakor Information basi. The purpose ot thisnational SAN la to serve au a 3frame of reftrence for the local SAN, tO

asos the micro-economic disparition between the Antananarivo area and therest of the country, and to asses* Inter r-gional *xchangos.

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06 The local SAX and the national SAM *erved s a bi ftor theconstruction ot a de«o-economic modal of the local-national *conemy (se.D.m@econCoiC Modol in Project File). This modal bridges the gap betwecnthe traditional macro-economic modela which ère g narally deprived of anyspatial and urban-rural dimension, on the one hand, and the sectorial andmicro-economic analyses which genorally fail to take the macre-economiccontext into account, on the other hand. The followinq analysis of thebonefits and impacts ef the project te, to a large extent, based on theresults provided br this demo-conomic model, which will alme serve au atool for monitoring the implementation of the project and for the analysisof broader urban and rogional issue iLn Madagascar.

Local economic and socio-econoic backeround

07 The local SAM cf the year 1988, s*lectod au the base yoar, showsthat the econemy of the Antananarivo &rea has been seriouely hurt by theeconomic criais cf the *701 and by the contraction of public expenditureand domestic absorption fellowing the adjustmant procees. The monetaryincc«e of householde is no low, particularly in the modern sector, thatmeut activities orientes towards the domestic market have *xperenced adramatia decline, and,in some cases, disappeared, for lack of *olventcuatoers. A good illustration Ls provided by the construction sector:the rents paid by tenante to landlords are generally v.ry low or eVen non-existent (heberges gratuitement), the low incoa from rntes doos not allowfor a proper maintenance of the existing stock of houses, the profitabilityof investment in housing Ls low, and the total housing stock increases at apace at leaât two tises loevr than the almoady low urban population growthrate (3.2%), resulting iL very high occupancy ratio«, especially in thesouthern plain.

08 The lack of em7loyment and income oppoetuntties and the poorhousing conditions in the city pushes a growing number of householde in therural periphery and in the non monetized oenomy, resulting in a low levelof division of labor Ènd exchanges between the city and itt periphory, inan over-densification of the rural hinterland, and in a dramatic decroaseof the average ase of faru, esPecLally smong the young farmers. Thosefarmers us most of their production for their own consumption (inded,they are not aven food self-sufficient), they have not much teo ell to theurban consumers, aM thir alre-dy low monetary ncous Las ineluctablydecreasing.

09 Te le level of mon.tary laous of most urban and ruralhouseholds la on of the main reasons of the lw yiold of local taxes andof the lw lev1 of incare and expenditure of local governmntu, whichresults Ln a furtiher deterioration of the quality Of public services and ofthe physical environment in the Antananarivo area. The very poarconditions of drainage, sanitation, and other basic amenities also acts asa powerful disincentive to private investment in houein;, which makes theconditions of living even more p-eca« ous for the majority of the urmanhousrhold , includin; tie "rmddle=classs. tt te against thL demographic,

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conomic and *ocio-_conomic background of the Antananarivo arma that theshort and longer torm impacts of the project are pr-ented hmroafter.

Short tere Jmacte of the oroltet

10 Two main categories of short torm impacts can be identified. Thefirut catagory corresponde to the direct, Lntended effects of *achcomponant of the project: this firut catmgory of impacts, weighted againstthe corrmsponding costs in the cort-ben fLt analysis, will only b- alludedto. The second cat-gory corresponde to the indirect and inducod affecte ofthe implementation of the project on regional economy.

il The 100-year flood protection provided by the project to thepeople and activitLes of the suburban plain and rural armas willim ediatoly- zmduce the expected value of damagés on .xIsting ëssets andactivities b'l FMH 2 billion per year, or 0.2% of the total gros. regionalproduct, most of which corresponding to the urbanised part of the plain andto urban a&rets and activitios. Thil estimation doms not include the*value* of livms which might be lost if the main dikes wero braached as Lthappenmd in the 1959 flood.

12 The rahabilitation of existing infrastructure and the bottermanagement of the circulation of water throughout the projmct arma willalso considerably improve the situation both during the rainy season, byallowing the diacharge of the rain rur off and of the waste watar in a much*horter pemiod of tim, and during the dry season, whare admquat-irrigation and drainage of the cropped arma will remove one of the mainbottlanackr to the modernization and intensification of the pari-urbanagriculture.

13 The improved drainage of the already urbaniaed parte of the PlIin,wher- 135,000 people livm LA poor conditions, and the rahabilitation and*xpansion of «xLating sswerage system will have an immediate impact on thesanitary conditions and on the halth of the downtown residenta (quartierde la gare) and of the suburban population. This improvement of thedrainage and sanitation will remové one cf the main constraints to privateLnvest ret and to rehabilitation of habitat Ln the entire aroa. The marketvalue of the 500 hectares of private land protected against flood andadequatoly drained in the southera plain is expected to increase from nomePNB 3,000 to More n ta 10,000 par square mater. This incremental valueonly corrsponds to the reduction cf the cont of landfill petmitted by theproject, and doms not include the affect of the improved acceos toinfrastructure and services. Of course, thii incremmntal value of urbanland 1 only potential and will only materialize insofar as the landprotected will be actually developed.

14 In the irrigated aroas, the flod protection and drainage, and theimproved Irrigation, together with the expected improvement of farmingtechniques, will progreesively rase- the average yiold oa the 2,400 haunder cultivation from 1.9. to 3.8 ton of paddy par hectare within aneatimated period of 7 ymarr. However, the average yiold will immediat-ly

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increase by at leaut 0.6 Cons par hmctaz.e without any change in existingagricultural practices, thanku to the reduction of loses resulting fromflood, insufficient drainage and inadequate irrigation. In addition, theproject will allow for an expansion of irrigation en 20S ha of maruhlands.Overall, the production of paddy in the project area Lu *xpected to treble,from ie prenant lev-l of 3,700 tons l an aiverage year, to some 10,S00tons, nine ysars atter the boginning et the project. The project will alsocroate the conditions for a development ot off steaon cultivation (culturesde contre saison), mainly wheat, potateon, beans, cnLons and othervegetables for the Antananarivo market. On the ba st et the existing casesof *pontaneour development in other armas e the region whsre irrigationand drainage conditions are favorable, off season cultivation would developon et loaet 500 hectares ever the 10 yearr following the beginning ot theproject, providing the farmrs with a uubstantial mount of cash income.

15 The second catmgory ot short torm impact* corresponde to theIndirect ettecte, througheut the rogional *conomy, of the publicexpenditure resulting trom the implementaion ot the project, to the Lnducedettectr of this expenditure through the use of the incom distributed tothe labor force mngag.d Ln the implementation of the projcte, and to thereviving ot private inveotment Ln housing, encouragsd by the improvement ofdrainage and sanitation conditions in the project are&. Thoes indirect andlnduc-d effects, as they can be assessrd Ln th. demo-economic model of theAntananarivo are&, are briLtly prseonted hereattor, for a periodcorrecponding to the average year of tull-pmed implmentation nddisburs m_nt (year 2 to yoar 6 of the project), during which the averageflow e e*xpenditure will r- ch sos S12 million, or PMO 19 billion per ymarat the 1988 mxchangm rate, of which PMG 10 billion pmr ymar LA foreigncurrmhcy. in order to taie into account the inducmd ett*ct of the prqjecton private investment, -t La asuumd that the ratio betw en the growth rateof the urban housing stock and the growth rats ot the corrmspondingpopulation w$il be rais d frou 50% LA the base year to 70% (the nationalaverage) with the project. This assumption La not over-optimistic, sinceit corresponde to oaly 1000 to 1500 *upplem_ntary nmw housing unitu pary.ar in the *ntire Antananarivo are, and would imply a furthmr aggravation(although at a lowmr pao>) of the ovmrcrowding of the existing housingstock. However, an alterablve mutimate has bsn dons, wheroby the inducedtffect et the projoct on pr..vate Lnvsxtment (relaxation of the repr-x-sd

Lnvmstusnt La houLae ) la at consoLdred.

16 comprsi to thu current macro aggrsgates of Che arma (bacs ysar1988), the annual flow of etxpnditure ot the project La not negligiblî,*ince Lt Le 1qulvalont to 3% of the groes rogional product, to 16% of thetotal tura oser ei th. construction sector Ln the area, and to 23% et thetotal publie lnvmctmont Luplemmntod by the central govsrnmsnt services andthe local governmento in thic are&.

17 The global impact of tho public expmndLturos directly linked ttothe proj.ct on th. local econaoy and on the ovorall national *eonomy con betraced Ln th. local and national 9AMJ (<se detailed tables Ln Dnmoeconomiccdel La Project rile>. At the lmvml ot the Antananarivo area, the grosa

r.gional product w$il increare by tMO 24 billion, or 4.6 % of its prenant

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ljvel. The construction sector (<TMG $6 billion, + 9.8%) and the trade andtransport * «tor Z (T 6 billion, +4.9%) will be the main beneficiaries.The hous bold exFnditure and income will increase by FTa la billLon(+3.3%) and the household investmont will increame by ?MC 8 billion c.14.9%)t the project will croate a much more favorable environment forrohebilitation and expansion of housing in the alrcady urbanized aroas ofthe plain. The public inveutment will increase by ?MG 12 billion (+16.5%). Au a consequence of the rclatively high import content of theproject, the importe cf the r-a (including indirect and induced importedue to the income redistribution proceus) will Increase by ?MG Il billion<+ 7.2%), while the trade of the area with the rest of the country willincrease by nearly ?KG 4 billion (+2.0 %), both ways included.

18 At the level of the national economy au a whole, the grosmdomeutic product will increase by TMG 39 billion (+1.6%> the householdexpcnditure by FTM 32 billion <+1.4%), the houuehold investment by fTM 9billion (+4.6%) and total Importe and exports by TMG 15 billion (+3.3%) andTMG 3 billion <.0.6%) respectivoly. if the induced *f fect of the projecton private investment was not considered, the CDT would only increase byFMG 23 billion (or only 60% of the abov figure)> the private e*xpnditureby TMG 19 billion, the private investment by TMG 2 billion, and totalimporte and exportr by FTG 10 billion and FMC 2 billion respectively.

19 Exproesed in tersa of itr Lmpct on the gros. domestic product,the foreign currency expenditure on the projoct appear« to have amultiplier of 2.4 at the local levol (+FVG 24 billion of rogional addedvalue for the quivalont of FMG 10 billion of foreign currencye-XD nditures) and 3.9 at the country level.

20 This multiplier o the proj.ct expenditure on the local andnational production (end private and public expenditures nd inveatment) isa good indicator of the short tera Impact of this proj ct and of itrcapacity to uprime the pump of domestic expenditure in this period ofMadagascar s macroeconomic adjustm»'t whbro the *xtrem_ly depresmed demandfor *non tradeble' comoditioa ol one major obstacle to economic recovery.As s*on in para 6.18, a migaificant proportion of this multiplier in due tothe contribution of the project to the relaxation of constraints to privateinvestuent ln houeia,and to hec corrcsponding af fct of the activity ofthe private construction *ector.

21 The multiplier, alroady reasonably high, could bo improved if theimport contene of the project could b1 reducod. Ths could bo achievod,althougb to a lim±ted axtent, by mtretchinq the implementation *chedule andsubdividlag the drainage, Irrigation and sanication contracte into amallerlots, la order to attract à larger share of local contractors. Howover,this would be et the expenoe of other objectives of the project, and wouldincrease the burden on the Project Management.

Lonoor ter lmmuet of the uro1ct

22 Two categories ot longer torm impacts cma a10 b1 identifieds thefiret catgoory corresponds to the diect. "s ctoriel" cffects of each

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project COPteOIOnts intensification of agricultural land use, reduction ofthe coet of UrbanL:ation, botter functiofting of public utilitiem etc. Thesecond C&tO90ry, on which the following discussion tecuses, corresponds tomore macro and regional effecte of the project.

23 Firut, the Antananarivo plain project muet bO considored as onefundamental stop in the implemontation of the etrategy of revival of thedomestic market. Ta that *nd, the *trategy aime to incrotea the divisionof labor betwéen rural anu urban aroea and between agriculture and theother soctors, to relax *xisting constraints to the mobility of population,to croate an onablin; environm nt for private investont, especially inurban and pori-urban areas, nd to promote urban-rural exchanges. TheopportunitLes offored by the project for the expansion of central functionscf th- capital city in the southern plain in expected to improve theattractivenesm of Antananarivo, both for population, private investuent andactivities, and to improve the efficiency cf the city considored as aneigin* of econamic growth.

24 A ton year projection of the local SAl shows the positive affectsOf an =ccloration cf the population growth rate of the Antananarivo aroe,trou the low prenant level of 3.2 % Lnherited from almost two decades ofeconomic stagnation and urban nqglect, to moue 5% S This s% long-torsmtrend is more compatible with the favorable macro-economic environmentresultinq frcu structural adjustmnt policios and with the increasedrelianc- on arket forces. The project will make this long-tors growth ofth- population Ln the Antananarivo aroa possible. The long tors growthrato cf the regional product will roach 7.8% in the high urbanizationbcenrio, aglinet 4.4% Ln the low urbanization ucenari*. This 7.8% longtorm growth rate of the regional product may appear very high: Lt must berecalled, howvevr, thft Lt would oaly load to an average par capita GDP ofsauM 5320 La 1998, which La quite modeost for a metropolitan arie, and wouldLnvolve an average growth rate of the per capita private expnditure in theurban area ituelf of only 1.3% , after two decades oe continuoug d«line ofthis ratio by at loeat 4% par yeai.

25 The SAU oodel show that the rural population of the Antananarivoare& will greatly benefit fira the acceloration of the urbaniszations whileth' two *cenarior roughy correspond to th 8mae number of roeidentr in therural peripheay of Antitanarivo, the par capita income of zural householdmwill gscu *e 2.1% inatead of 0St In the low urbanisation scenario. Thisin the con oquewe cf the increaed *xchanges betwoen Antanarivo and itsrural pd twhery, Md espocially with Lto agrLeultural hinterlands themonetàry Iome per fiermr La 26% highb r than in the low urbanizationscenauto, allowig for a true modrnisation of the pari-urban agriculture,more deliberatoly oriented towarde the mskot than to locl solf- sufficLency

26 A more dtalled analysis cf the pattern of long torm econocmigrowth ln the Anttnanarivo aseé shows that the fastest growing sectors willbe the conetruction *sctor(+9 %S per year) f*8tered by a dynamic privateinvestment (+10% per year) and by public Lnvestment in the aiea (+6.8% peryear)o and the a*go-industrial sectoe <7 78% par yuar).

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27 The Oxchanges batwfn the aro and th- rest of the country willgrow *t 0.6% instead of 4.6% in the low urbanization *cenario, withoutproject. Of course, &Il those atructural changes cannot b. fully put atthe credit of the project alone, but lt in fair to state that the projectzetz the stage for these changes which could be physically andinstitutionally unachievable otherwise.

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XADAGASCARAntananarivo Plain Development Proleet

Environmntal Impact

FOREWORD

The Antananarivo Plain Development Project consiste mainIly of a hydrauliedev-lopment *cheme which in meant to protect the partly-urbanizaed plain aga.nstflooding, as well aa in the rohabilitation of the (hydroagricultural) noetworkwhich in close to eL. town. The aim of the Project in not the protection (orrehabilitation> of the *nvironment: however, the projected dev-lopmnent wiliaffect the environment. The prenant report aime at identifying those impactstogether with describing thair aspects, both positive and negative.

1. Initial ftat. and avolutive tndencv <not covered by the Prolecti

1.1. The waterahed

Physical environmnt

The Mamba <eantern part) and Kambakely watershedu are the prevailing zonescovered by the Project. Relief thera La characterized byt

- extended, mainly rice-cultivated, large alÂuvial plains with aconcentration of superficial or infiltrated waters collected inthe waterahed, with water table at or near ground surface.

- a succoealon of undulating tablelandu and low hills wîth doepferallitic zoils,

- the northehn and eastern parts of the waterahed are mark d bypeak that culminate at 1,500 to 1,600 m. (Ambohimanga).

Veoetatiou e" oouad occumation

rarmin; ln .ainly concentrated in or near alluvial plains. Hille andplateaux are progroesively being urbanised from the road and existingvillages.

Small reafforestation area& are disseminated over the whole of thewaterehed.

Natural swamps are conetantly d creasing eue to the development ofalluvial zones.

The remaining eurfac* includes extensive over-grated pasture lands.

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Th watorrhod includes two artifical lakes near Ivato.

iioloaLCBl Md rchitectural back2round

As a consequence of urbanisation, natural vegetattion has smverelyd.terioratmd as the result of human landscaping: housing, reafforastatLon,and irrigated agrIculturo and hortIculture. The most visible ignes ofenvironmental degradation are thos. neighbouting high hil'. which have beencleared for pastur., cr.ating wastmlands where *roded shoota and ravines arefrmqumntly found.

1.2. Land and houmine uetiltation

The agricultural plain in covored mainly with rice fields which arecultivatmd by emall Zarmers with average cultivatcd armas of 0.5 ha *ach.Lower parts are ur d for the culture of *arly ricm (vary aloha)> which inplantmd-out In August-Septembor and harvostod Ln January. Due to thed-terioratod canal notwork, farmers had to extend this programe ovor longerporiodr, which incro-ass flood-rolatmd tosss. Lata rice <vary vakianbaty)La cultivatod on the highor lande (above 1,248-1,249 m). It La plantmd-outin December and harvestod in April-May. Low poorly drained lands, (o.g. atthe foot of thm Ambodimita), romain flooded and are usrd for fishing.

in and noar town <taston valley) low-bOd5 are usmd for watercrasr ponds orfor growing saonjo or cassava and rafter markmt-gardening. ln the hillî(Tanoty), market-gardening iL practis.d on the bottom parts of the olopos.Dry farming is don- on th* higher parts. Severely doteriorated toils due toover-grazLng, togqthmr with burning-out and rcaping practices confine dry-farming near the villages wh-re Lt can be added bovine manure. On tho Southof the 67 ha, although the plain is "plantod" with scattered housinga, lthar kmpt itr rural aspect -with the exception of tho nearby major routes.In this arma, agriculture Lr dotorLorating. A sharp incroase in theexcavations can be observed and the hydraulic network La in a worsecondition than in the rlorth.

Housing dissemination La oxtending, so that doterioration of rice farmingar4d infringmonts on lamination low r lands are progressing northwardr(Maaay, the hydrocarbono coad, etc).

Humun aLccomodLation include&. mainly villages built on hill topa. The double-rloped roofied houss« are traditionally made of rmd-coatod brickr or clayblockr. The banks of the Mamba River are occupied by more precarious,daubed-walled, shoot-metal rocfed dw llings, 050 of which only serve auuhelters for the watchmen in charge of looking after the fields.

1.3. Plain hydraulie eouLP mnt

- The Project covers the arma of the Betsimitatatra Plain which Lalocated batween the foot of tho hills whmro the Antananarivo townoriginally devoloped and the dykes along the Ikopa and MambaRivera. This arma Le naturally expor-d to seasonal flooding by the

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above rivers, a flooding increaued by accumulated alluvL.al rai-ndeposits on the Plain watorrhudu.

The lower town district lLkely to be floeded is located betw on1,248,50 m (along the Andriantany Canal whure embaonkments are fawtand 1,251 m (noar the railway station).

131. <Remindur of) Plain olobal characteriutice

The 9 tuimitrata Pla.n in made of a 20m-thick alluvLum comprising two layera:

- a lower mandy, thick, porour layer which Lt fed by infiltrationwaters from the Ikopa River,

- a 3m- thick superficial impervious layer.

* The underground layer fed by the ikopa River rune through the *andyalluvium and can be conftind in flooding periode.

* The Plain ends in the North with a rock mana which has croated ala4ustrian morphology that generates a very low goneral gradient.

* It La croesed, within the project zono, by the Ikopa River which, in itonorthern part, collecte the waters coming from lte tributary, the KambaRiver.

A Agricultural occupation and the hydraulic system are old. The systom jethat of a dense canal network which Lr uued for irrigation and drainage.

* As a protection against flooding, farmers have damed-up the rivera, whoselevlel rime above plain level at flood tim. The groat dyke on the rightbank of the Zkopa, which w'a robuilt in 1962 following the drastie 1959flood, Ls ex*pcted to protect the town during approximately 50 years. Thevery old Mamba dyke retains waters one over throo years only.

Beuides levols issue, one hb to face river flood problems. During a 10-year phase, the lkopa Rivera overflows in Lts upper part whore the plainbegins. Waters run down into the loft bank valu and are thon stopped byvariuog obstacles originated by the bottleneck of the river bud(Tanlombato, Anosisato, Ztaomy). Ourinq river spates this provokes watermhitting butwéen the major and minor beds thus producinq dynamic affecte onthe bankJ.

* RaLn falle of the town gather in the Andriantany Canal at the ftot cf theurbanized hlle. The canal, which was originally planned for irrigation, hasbeon dammed-up at approxisat-ly 1,249m to raine ahove rice fields level. itrune into the Zkopa River about 10 !au downhtroem ef town. At dischacge, theIkopa level raines above 1,249m avery S years. With a view to stop the Ikopawatoera Sic boing pueh.d back into the canal, the latter has boon uqLippedwith a eluice (au Ambodiaita, on the Ambohibaho Road), which Ls *uasonallyclosed.

The polder-lUk. plain in thon impluvium-floodud. Drainage te intermittent

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Annex 12Page 4 of 15

in the low r part formed by the canal* which run &cross it *long a north-to-south direction and run into the canal downstrean of the sluice. T.e samehappen to the northern network of the Hamba River (Laniera> that runs intzthe canal upstr»am of the *luice.

* DLscharging of waste waters is done with that of pluvial waters. Sewageflows into the Andr4antany Canal, slightly above bcd level. Discharges arepartially obstructed by seUting of the canal where maintenanc te noet done.he decayed network as wall as hydraulic hoad of the canal waters preventreqular flow of pluvial and waste waters, thus r-rulting in the flooding ofthe lower town districts.

Main outlets do not suffice to allow run-off transit; on the other hand,they are teo wide for swift draining-off of used-up waters in dry weather,added to obstructions resulting from lack of maintenance and the poorcondition ef (rivulots), etc... In the dry season, the Andriantany feeds apolluted ground water that stagnates at O.m undernath the nbankmnte andmakes maintenance or ordinary repair workr difficult. In the rainy season,the damaging e* fects of flood* are Lncreased by the network s comonfunctioning factor.

In the town lower districts along the Andriantany and at hill foots (lsotry,Tearalalana., Ampef,L:oha, Antanimena, ... ), the sewage network is no longerin workinq order.

132. Ploode and submersions rieke

Dyke breaking and ground water floading differ in their consaquences, whichehould be clearly described.

a> Dyke collaoe s

When the dyke nearr breaking point (every 50 years) the Ikopa level reaches1,253.5mi lt Le thon Sm above plain level. Flood rieke are therefore obvilusfor the house ln the plain and lower districts of the town. Whileoverflcwing of the Mamba occurs more frmquently, its impact Ls limitedculture damages.

b) implvium tlloodin

The oeteitatrata Plain elevation Le between 1,246.6 m and 1,249m with anaverage of 1,247.5m. Water levelo resulting from umpluvium submersion reach1,247.7m e*vry 2 yearr, 1,248.5m *very 10 yearr and 1,249.3 *very 100 yearu.Lower Antananarivo (Ampefiloha, Anatihazo, laotry, &long the Anosizato andAnonipatrana roads) are partially flooed dvery 2 years and teotally floodedonce Ln *very 10 years.

The agricultural function of the Andriantany Canal iL also a cause ctdïsorders. It nad be-en originally doeigned to transport 10 cubicmaters/second. Mow, Ltu bed La currently silted, and housin; has been undulybuLlt on its bank, thus reducing Lt. etrangth <on-pL-e housinq at DAntemna,Zsidry bottloneck, etc. ) Te obtain graëter water passage, tarmrs currentlyaet the level at near overflowing point; with low-quality emall dykes, thisrcsulte ln gape and local flooding Ln November and December at Aapefiloha.

84Annex 12Page Y of 15

1 4 Urban Environmfnt

141. Plain occupation ptOeaCz

The current ettua:.on resultu from the two existing occupation modes, i.e.the agrieultural one and the urban one (namely aIl non-agra.culturaIutilizations: housLng, *quipment, industrial and craftwork activitjes,transportation, etc).

* Progressive development of irrigated agriculture han resuited incontinucus raising of protection dykes and in improved and r-inforced water-feeding canals (for the upetream extension of the irrigated area, theforwarding of sed-beds dates, etc) and drainage canals (for the downstreamextension of the irr:gated area and the control ai water levele, etc).with the Andriantany Canal being positioned at hill foot, around the h$1e.

* The incr-asing extension of non-agricultural land occupation recults fromthe site's configuration: originally located on top of the Rova mountainpeak (1,450m), the town firut spread over the alopes to reach the plainaround 1930. Since thon, with the devealopmnt of the railway network and theconstruction of the railway station, a continuous urban developFnt proceosstarted in the plain, to the detriment of irrigated cultures. Suchdevelopment te commended by:

- economie entities looking for flat lands, conveniently locatedwith regard to the town center and accessible by road or railway -which obviously hill canot provide in general.

the usual pressure of population housing occupation on the zonesmont close to administrative and industrial services andemployment. Such pressure is encouraged by the roadc nstwork thatconnecta the capital to the various towns and regions of thecountry. It results Ln land prices which have nothing to se withagricultural land prices. The cost for a plain embankment -whichincreases in proportion with the furthering-off of possible loanfacilities zones, the riLk of flooding, etc. are included in thecomparison with other, more distant or lesz efficie$tly connectedsites. The balance is that of plain urbanization versus hillurbanisation (Ses J.L. V4nard, Phase 1 -1984), which changes withti. (relative factors coste, inclusion of new hilly zonesresulting fram space extension) and a*so dependz on the sconomicconjuncture (a very low one will generate pauperication anddensifications a higher one will recult in extension) (Seo 'Plainurbanization Schems' , M. Arnaud - 1989).

The above twofold pracezs recults in a complex dilemmea between:

- ground and water wo-ks <Andy Canal) utilization,

- agrieultural (MPAM) and urban (municipality and MTP) competencesfor the repair and maintenance of oluices.

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Annex 12Page 6 of 15

Town devOlopment on the sastern hills results in extensive grourd Water_rep.lling proces and consequently in an increase in surface water flows;which occugO euddenly and within a few dais. The flows rush down towardsthe bottom ci the plain and meet the Andriantany Canal, which was not mtantto transport them resulting in accumulated water where the canal bank iu thehighest, followed by local overflowing, bankr damaging and specific f loodingof the urban districts.

in addition, the urban occupation of the plain withdrawo lande fromagricultural uses and owing te land-pricing market *peculations, causesagricultural activities disorders, difficult relationJhips between landowners and eharecroppers and speculation on lande awaiting urbantransformation. This urban occupation requires embankmnftu whose volume iLthus withdrawn from the plain's absorptive capacity when gluices are celosedthe 500 ha embanked at an average 1.50m have alroady withdrawn 7.5 millionm3 (frem an approximate 25 million m3).

As indicated above, heuse construction on the banku of the canals areanother form of non-agricultural occupation. Besides the above types of landwithdrawals, these constructions result in canal dafaging through bankcrumblinq and waste discharge, which doter current maintenance.

Given the cont of flood protection prior te urban installation, and threatcf recurrent seasonal flooding, the authoritiLe, understandably, areroluctant or refuse ta officialise urbanization of the Plain. However, thispolicy has not deforred illegal installations and drnsifications, whichprogres. locally and erratically aceording eo ownerso will or thes» rareland sales. This unplanned dev-lopment leaver no room for futureceonstruction; on maintenance they connequently cannot bonefit from regularequipment action. Finally, occupation is more and more that ci poorerpeople since initial tenants leave to find better lodgings elsewhere. Thisrecults in the vicicus cycle of the resident population of those districtsbeing therofore the one that La the least adapted to the charges of arational occupation of the Plain. Nousing in the Plain La thereforeprecariLus.

Housing structur,s originally tock advar,tage of ;e accees roads embankmentsand were at oufficient distance to be pratected f rom seasonal f loods. As thepopulation grew, housse have extended more towards the rice fields and haveben built on low *mbankmente (50-60cm>, which hardly allowr to raisehousinge abov water level and to have accese to thom. The high cost ofthese embank)nte with regarde to the low means of living of these familiashas had an obvieus consequence on ground occupation: houses stand noxt toone another in very dense blocks that hang on the main acous road oe on theembankments or drainage conduits.

Acceas is done through dramatically narrow , insufficiently pedestrian pathsthat use the rice fields dykes and whieh make communication from one placeto another quit. uneasy if not impossible.

Frequent flooding during the rainy s-aron, recurrent polluted-water invasionof the housing (more than 1/3 Ls fLooded) and the preoence of swamps are theliving conditions ci the population in the plain are. A a conoequence,

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Annex 12Page 7 of 15

*anitary conditiong &ro dizastrouz *von though thore exista a *pecialcommni@fLon iLa charge of tht environment and collection of sanitary L8aues.

Not aIl familLes postes. the minimum equipment for water diecharge: 4% ofthe plain inhabitante and 10% in lzotry do not have excrota disposalfaci'._ties. For those who have <2/3 of whom have to share thom), teosefacilitioe are often rudimentary latrines and are just holes that run 4owmto a atone or brick pit set underneath the latrine device, and most cft-noutside the house. Pit draining ir often discharged into the rice fields,and although the latter are uuually slightly rai ed abova ground level,there remains overflowing riske during the rainy seamon. (HUIT GROUP, Junel989).One indirect consequence of *uch devalued urbanization of the plain in thesquatterinq of public spaces and prsviously dammed, unusod places.

142. (Unuroiected) vlIution trend

The Indication of what the evolution would be without Project completion insuch a compl-x environment requires an evaluation of the mechanisms ofspontaneou urbanization. It would be unrrealirtic to include the conceptof total control of the constructions *uch au, for instance, La thecircumsta ceu, respect of absolute dyke and construction forbidding in thezones more or les licely to be flooded.

Vithout the Project, this would therefore globally and irroppr*ssibly resultin the planning of erratic occupation. The land market pressure ir teostrong, and, moreover, increasing with the increare of the town and therelated furthering-off of competitive constructible lands. The rate of theoccupatior need will take up peed if the economic conjuncture Le bettertin the recent past, the Antananarivo demographic development hassignificantly *lowed down and the major part of urban development han beenabsorbed by a ground and housing denzification, no that one mLght think thatthe plain embankment Le under control. This iL not the case, and the above-mentioned study by J.L. Venard har shown that for a more than 5%devolopmant/year rate, hall of it would re-ult in the development ofurbanized land surface, with a *lightly lower rate for the central part(including the Plain). At a 3% rate/year, land occupation in the plain woulddouble within 24 yearr.

All oth« elomntr in conn«etion with this occupation tandency wouldintansify with time and the urban pressures

- authorities would flnd it more and more difficult to resut thepressure on zones which would be more and more central andabandonad by agriculture: (without a proj ct), they could have nosound reason to officialise urban occupation on lande that wouldbe more and more likely to be flooded (due to the continuedreduetion of accumulation land surface);

- densification would make rehabilitation worke (drainage conduitsand canals) more and more costly; and Lt would be quite improbableto provide for bumper basins to contain pluvial waters (10% of theurbenized surface)#

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Annex 12Page 8 of 15

_ densification would alas result in increaosd volumes of liquid anduo3Âd waetes dilcharged on the surface or into the ground water;

_ growing uneanitary conditions would become more obviYus andirreveruible and the resident population would tend to be more andmore marginal, thus making town-center housinq Ions and lessusable for quality investments$

- dysfunctioning of the hydraulic, agricultural and urban systsmwould increase with non-agricultural occupation, thus accloratingthe discarding of agricultural activites and making maintenancecoste heavier;

- after occupyLng mainly the *outhern part of the Plain and hillsborder (where embankment requirement La minimum) -land pricesincreasing as occupation grows- one would result in banking-upjust any zone of the plain before *ven the beot ones would betotally occupiedg

-without Lmproved organisation in the management of the waterprotection and drainage system in the Plain, water level beinghigher and higher for a standard liet of given serles otrainfalls, flooding and dyke breaking rieke would alto incroaseet flod recurrencies would be more frequenti

- sA a side-event, irrational utilisation of the central landepotential would result in increased pressure on the old town,which would seon endanger its architectural asset.

Orientations towards spread-out agglomeration could c.rtainly reduce theabove procees conuequences (this was wisely adopted in the CreatorAntananarivo Main Scheme, within an unprojected hypothesiî). Provided theauthoritiea were able te have *uch a *cheme agred upon, the most likelyrenult would be a mixture of a nlower occupation of the Plain with a sproad-out agglomeration. The mont probable hypothosis being to keep the plain forcentral, quality works which would provide for the financing of individualinstallations in this context.

1.S Sanitarv *niCtino en vioteant

Globally, the sanitary situation of the country is critical, and it in avenmore so ln the Antananarivo Region. Malaria, which is on a eoarin; trend,han had incveaingly dramatic connequences, as is shown by the death ratefigures Ln the following tables:

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Annex 12Page 9 of 15

Maladra-t*lBt*d death rates from 1984 to 1987 4in 3 highland zones(estimâtions pQr 1,000 hnhabttants)

.984 1985 1986 1987

Antananiarvo 0,2211,000 0,2411,000 0,28/1,000 0,5S11,000Town centar

Antananarivo 0,4611,000 0,8711,000 1.37/1,000 2,6 /1,000Province

2 C.M. 0,6 /1,000 1,2 /1,000 1,28/ 1,000 2 /1,000FLanahratsoaProviuce

Estimated population and death rates increases btcwo.n 1984-:987in the 3 zones and the high lands

nicreanad bys incroased by: d.ath-rateLncreaaed bv:

Antananarivo Town 1,09 1,29 2,8Inereasse 9,6 2 29,1 S 177 2

AntananarivoProvince 1,09 1,4 6,1rural zonsIncreases 9,6 S 40,7 2 516 S

Sanltary measures art currently under way (e.g. douiiciliary DDT treatment,which .lready shows positive results). AlsO, thé decayed purific&t.onnetwork «s ull as lack of water-filtering stations art factors of uncreasedcontaun taloa of surf ace wters which converge into the rice fields (in 1969as zuch éà 18 million faccal streptococcuslltre could already be found lnthe Anosy outlet waters).

2. Pro Iet' sta ct on the euwionLeu

2.1. Sumarv of Prolect contents

The Project for flood drainage and control Js threefold:

- renforcé_ent of dykes and floode transit- improvement of drainage- agrieultural rshabilitation.

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Annex 12?age 10 of 15

,à) Dvke ad flood& transit

- The right benk dyka on the Ikopa vill be reinforced vith à viav to ensurea 100-year protection. Anosizato, which ià the most fragile, wi: beequipped teo facilitate flood& transit.

b) Imoro@vemnt of drainaxe

Ca-nal discharging vill be made permanent throurh a 9 m3/s pumpingstation located downstream of the polder and which vill push the watersback into the Mamba River (this is the major work in the drainingproceas).

T-he canal vill then be dredgad, iLt banks vill b. cleaned and its solerole vill be that of draining.

A main collector located in the conter of the plain vill allov for therehabilitation of lover districts. Lamination basins vill b. worktd-out. Current accumulation basins (Masay, Alarobia) vill b. controlledvith a view to enable thom to have a lasting efficiency.

Full drainage efficiency vill thus be ensured for a 10-yoar period.

c) Framia rehabilitation

The Andriantany Canal vill be replacod by a nov agricultural supply main.The area which it feeds vill be rehabilitated over a 3,000 ha surfacelocated betveen the 67 ha in the South and the Ivato Lake in the North.

2.2. Sectorial impact of hvdraulic eouiiments

221. Imact of plain foqd&no0a lves 1

Pumping vill allow to reduce flooding levels in the plain; recurrentf looding in the main part of thé plain will be postponed f rom 10 to 100years.

Flooding rocurrency (in years)

Flooding loevlsin the Plain 2 10 100Bcfore Pro1iet comaletion 1.247.7 1,248.5 1,249.3

After ?rolect comoletion 1,247.2 1,247.9 1,248.6

222. Ipact on flood levoles i the plain on thé Ikop- loftbank lad downstre.m of the oro1-cted sont

- S.he development of the Anosizato lock, which will be used ouly forflood recurrencies exceeding 10 yoars, vill noet affect flooding

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Annex 12Page 11 of 15

conditions on the loft bank of thé Ikopa. Changes will' affect onythé vater transportation mechanisms betweer. t.he Ikopa b.d and t:-i

loft bank vale.

However, rehabliitation of the .Ikopa right bank dyke vill r*su.:in increased flooding of the rie* fields downstream of the

B.tsimatatra for recurrency p.riods of between 50 to 100 ypars.

From the econocie standpoint, it has bean stated that ricc fiel-sshould be protected for 10-year p.riods.

223. lunact on lover district sanitarisation

The rsduction of the Andriantany vater level through pumping vill providefor drains dismm ersion. Th. general level of are- pollutad by the canal andnetwork sa'-ks vill be low.red. Once r.habilitated, the towf's sanitatieton.twork vill thus be in workirLç order.

224 I»Moct on rie f telda oollution

The current situation, where the Andriantany Canal discharges sevage intothe rie. fields, vill be improveds

- by d.dicating the canal to draining, vith its waters no longer boingused for irrigation

- by installing stoeri spillways that vill direct diluted waters onte theplain.

225. Impeat of ilain esanals and storate basins

Thé *quipment of lerer zone and svamps into lmination basins vill recultin a beneficial offect on sanitation (contrary to doubta which may have beenexpressed). Actually, these vater stretches vili b. controlled by thehydraulie systom (which vill maintain a minimum depth level); banksmaintenance and vater circulation vill b. made feasible. The permanent vaterstretch will allow to preserve grubs and mosquitos predators. Besides, thisvill be a complementary fighting element against malaria.

Provided that, as la expected,those vorks are kept in good vorking conditionand bauks pedestrian pathways are landscaped (as is the case on Lake Anosy),they would certainly have a positive influence on the environment as far asesthetics and the population'* living conditions are concerned.

Besides, drainage of che lover zones currently used for pisciculture couldbe compensated by fish breeding in the lamination basins.

It should aiso ie noted that, thanks to the projected 2 m3/second sanitaryflov injection, pollution of the Andriantany Canal vlll be reduced.

226. Imact on tround vater

Ground vater levels vlli not be modified since drainage vill affect

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Annex 12Page 12 of 15

superficiel waters only. It will ba possible eo drain "secondary" grountwaters crcated locally by the Andriantany. Given the negative affect onsanitarisation, this impact vili bc an advantaga.

227. Imoact of the cnal b_arks exeropriations

Expropriated houses, in particular those on the Andrianceny Canal, are amorgthe most pracarious and insanitary onts. It has been planned to put the.down to install maintenance tracks instcad; people vill b. rehoused on therice fields embanlment zones. Since current housing thero ls illegal, it hasonly been plannae to grant people wLvh expropriation compensations based onhoue ng market value. Administration nov seema to be contemplating thcviabilisation of thes. sites, but financing, paym.nt of maintenance taxesby resourceloses people and solutions to doter spe.ulatory actions art issue*uhich still remain to be locksd inat.

228. Impact of the smi,ns station rta«cted vat-rs

The station rojecttd waters into the M-mba River 1t lik.ly to lacreas. thelatter's pollution. How.ver, this nggative impact vll b. limitad due toc

- rsjected used-up waters baing diluted by pluvial waters, on onhand,

- the Mmba River, as indicaced above, 1s a site vith little floraand animal llfc, on thé ochte hand.

229. Imact of thé rehabilitation of non-irrlgata trea

Rahabilitation of this are should have a twofold influence on envirotments

- A direct influence on rural population, whose incrasted Incomevill improve thir sanictry living conditions.

- An indirect impact on urban envirotment through reduced ruraldepopulatcon, which encourages current insanitary housing. Ont canalso hope for the preservation of the beautiful rural landscapewhich complotes the grand Antananarivo site.

2.3. Global immct on urbanisation and livint conditions

The Project, et originally designad ("basic Project") had indirect impactson the urbmais&tion oe the Plain and the ganeral evolution of urbanization,vithout any intervention in the urban field par se. Those impacts have becnanalyset in the complementary study (wrongly) entitled "Plain UrbanisationScheme" (M. Arnaud, 1989); chey are suarised balows

- The closing of the northera bank of the urban and agriculturalpolder, the raising (and reinforcing) of the whole of theprotection dykes in the plain, against cantenial flooding (insttadof the present 50 year recurrency), together vith transitarrangement on the Ikopa loft bank, vill improve security for any

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Annex 12Page 13 of 15

existing or future investuent, aven though the submersion riskvill never totally disappea:.

_ Piumping of waters from the Andriantany Canal downstrecm of t.ePlain and their rejection beyond the dyke when aluice is c'osed,viwI, if this is adequately controlled and all things being equa;,allow tO louer down to aoen O,80m to lm thé level of highestwaters in the polderised plain (and consaquently to proportionallyroduce the need for banking-up).

- Improved agricultural drainage vill result in the rehabilitationof the PIRD and can improve the situation of lover occupied zonesthat are currently poorly drained.

During the course of this study, the dense state of occupatior. of thesouthern part of the Plain -south of thé 67 ha- vas a rcason to cancelits planned rehabilitation.

In the course of the finalisation phase of the project, this analysiscf impacts on urbanization led thé Technical Comuittee to study andadopt a variant ta the Basic Projeut, as follevs:

- to raplace the doubling of the Andriantany Canal by a plain-bottom canal including the enlarging and r.inforcing of dralningcanal C3 able te transport pluvial waters falling in the South otthe Plain -if the latter vere ta be urbanized.

- the instalment of storage basins, during plain urbaniation, vitha view to collect pluvial vater before returaing it to canal C3,vich could possibly be extended upstream. Two of these storagebasins have been included in the Final Project, i.e.the ont whichwill stop waters fro tehe Railway Station vatershtd and the onewhich vili stop waters from the densely populated districts ofAnatihazo and Anosibe, on either side of National Road nr.1(Arivanimamo Read), as vell as the extension of the C3 to thelatter.

Hou viil the whole of the above works affect urbanization?

It makes no doubt that they vill improve urbanization of the Plain, sincevater protection and drainage vill be better than th.y presently are, andabove all, in the longer term, they viii be far better than they would bevithout the Project. However, this is only a change in rhythm compared totrend urbanisation. tesides, this change in rhythm vill aseo include a morerational management of the toun with regard to its center.

On the contrary, if the protection of the northern rehabilitated part of thePIRD is really completed against all improvement of the urbanisation (whichvill be facilitated by increased agricultural incomes and by a cleardistinction, described in the Project, betwven thé rehabilitated part andthe discarded ont), the Project vill result in urbanization b.ing elearlydirected to the southern part of the plain (whose banking-up is moreoverthe most économic ont), which vill be an obvious benefit.

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Annex 12Page 14 of 15

Raising land prices due to hydraulic vorks, and off'c'^lisedconstructibilityt viii resuit in the change in the potential cliente forhousing construction (and renting), aven if those vor:zs do net soiv. aIlissues. Thé Mtadaascan soci.ty's capacity to proporly design and buiLdprovided that :onditions &re adequate, ls a guaranty of the change inconstruction which vill recult from the change in statua. Anvtlow, a totaland prior viability for the '00 to 400 ha of the projected south*rn plainvouid bc irrlevant. Hovever, official and controlled urbanization vil'allow for netvorks tO follow-up.

Th se vorks vill above ail allow the authorities to officially make theplain urbanisable (iL constructible) since vater drainage conditions villbe set-up and the required bank-up leval vill be rsducsd. Suchofficialisation vill allow for ±implementation requirements to be set-up andLn particular to stat. what arcas art res.rved (vhich is not fcasiblo in theabsence of officialisation) and to intervene in such setting-up, ifnec.ssary, which makes up for botter control of the situation.

3. Conclusionas

3.1. Positive a{aCts

-With or without the Project, th. Plain ta meant to be urbanised, at a moreor les. swift pace according to the country's economic situation; et enyrate, the potential of the 300-400 ha of the southern part reflcte ther.quired neoed for land of one year of the town's extension at à rate of5lyear (100 m2/linhabLtant/l0,000 added inhabitants).

Th. Project encourages such urbanisation but Lt alloWJ officialurbnsaiation. which ls from fat preferabli to erratic urbanisation, but isirrepressible under the land pressure of the town center. In particular, thécombination of vorks and officialisation vill redirect grouad occupationtovards uses and social categories who vill be more capable to finance thecostc r.quired for banking.up and networks.

Thé Project is not litralily a urban project, but its final variant providesfor ixetdiate and tangible improvements tO the environmnnt of the more orless legal present occupants of this are&. The Projecc dots not require anysystematic tenants eviction. It leaves to land marketing and to tim thetask of rcneving this population, 701 of which live In rncitet housing (s-eGroupe Huit Survey;.

The setting-up of a light but specifically responsible public administrativeorganisation which would be able to regularly register fiscal resources, Lsa guaranty for the maintenance and adequate vorka.ng of the plain'* vaterprotection and drainage syste<, itself improved; this, a State ofCollective public service, subjected to Budget limitations, could notguaranty.

* TThe Project provides for the improvement of lover districts,consequently that of the sanitary conditions of their inhabitants.

* The kseping of heaithy vater levels ln the Andriant4ny Canal villreduce its pollution.

- 94 -Annex 12Page 15 of 15

* Ti.h setting-up of landscaped and vwll kspt lamination basins, viliimprove ch i.. of thb southern part of the plain.

3.2. NReative impact$

* Thé throving back of pump4 dvaetrs inte the Memba River vill increaseit3 pollution (albeit in low volumes sgiven the dilution of vaste waters bypluvial waters).

* Flooding of rice fields downstream of th. Batsimattra vill b. iicreasedduring r.eurrency periods exce.ding 50 y.ars.

* Eviction of illicit houas tenants on projected areas and canasl orrivers banks vill b. a problematie issus since most of these people do nothave the mons tO finance rs-houaing zones.

3.3. ROco.ndations

* Officialisation of th ceonstructibility of the southera part of the Plaindots not stand as e condition for th. completion of the °roject. It *houldon th. contrary rather b. made chrough varlous stages (or time perioda) toallov for discussions vith evners and tenants vith a viev to defin wh tarias art to b. riserv.d and to providc for greSter eontrel ofimplementation.

It vould c.rtainly be an advantage to move as many precarious constructionsas possible in the rehabilitated part of the Plain so as tO clearly markthat thls arta is meant to be used for agriculture (and aven improvedopertional conditions), and to maKe future building prohibition credible.

* Strategy to re-housa low-incom evicted tenants sheould be clearlydefined. To offer them areas entails appropriate measures in order to avoidtenants selling-off their lande to generate immediate profit and move toprecarious lodgings in the plain closer to their work

* The viability of positive impacts and improvement of nîgative ones shouldbe included vithin actions provided in a longer t-rm for ch. d-velopment ofthe hydraulle syst« of the plain and of thé town of Antananarivo, t.e.s

- Protection of the vatershed,

- Hydraulic *quipment (Phase 2), (i.e. floods transi:, dykes,rehabilitation of other agricultural areas,etc.),

- 95 Annex 13Page 1 of 1

WAAASCAR

à£L*£MlVO GLAN DmLo M.E PROJECT

.SOIeet4 DOCYmeut Available- In teh PrOtect F1l1

1. SCIT AGEI-OZEA studies fSnsnced by CredIt 1086-KAG. FloodProtection of thO AntananaivO Plain, caried oUt trou 1983 to 1988.

2. SCES AGRI-DIUXtA sipplementay studieS JUDO 1989Rlactu4slisation des Coût- Estudeo des Variantes

-Organisation des istiuttions-Analyse des Coati et des Avantaeps, A&lyse FinUCiSre

3. Etuades des Finances Locales et Rigionales - Avril 1989Titre 1 Situation ActuelleTitre 2 Mobilisation de* Ressources Compl.mentairesTicre 3 esooins de Financement

4. PDOtl - ovoeber 1987: Collette et Evaciatioades Ordures Ntagereste gestion du serviceb. coscession du service

5. Il. iranu, - UrbaisteSchima d'Urbanise - Mai 1989

Etude des Echoes £coomiques Ville Caupe das la lagi.ud 'Aat-a-naivoGroupe suit - Aura - Juin 1989.

7. Etude Soceo-Ecomique de la Population de la Plaine Sudd 'AntanaarioGroupe Hult-ha - JUNe 1989

8. D.o-Ecoumoi modal7.M. Ceurs - S.tcber 1989

9. VategsIod Maaag_ent PlanDPA.SCMt Agri K. Labrousse - Decouber 1989

-MADAGASCAR

ANTANANARIVO PLAIN PROJECT

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