Civic Exchange - 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Science to Policy - presented by Ross Anderson...
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Transcript of Civic Exchange - 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Science to Policy - presented by Ross Anderson...
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Science to policy
Experts Symposium on Air quality
Hong Kong 10th January 2009
Ross AndersonSt George’s, University of London
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From science to policy
1. Hazard identification2. Exposure-response3. Health impact assessment for specified
exposure scenarios (risk characterization)4. Cost-benefit and cost effectiveness5. Development of air quality strategy6. Implementation of appropriate measures7. Evaluation of benefits (“accountability”)
Various paradigms: NRC 1983, WHO 2000
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Updates of WHO guidelines
Year PM measure GuidelineAnnual mean
µg/m3
Notes
1970s SPM 60-90 Threshold(Lowest observed level for healtheffects ~ 150 + Safety factor of 2)
1987 Black Smoke 50 Threshold(linked to SO2, also 50)
2000 PM10 Dose-response No threshold
2006 PM10 20 No threshold
2006 PM2.5 10 No threshold.
3PM10 ~ 0.5 x SPM; 2 x BS; 1.3 x PM2.5
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Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortalityin ACS cohort (~ 0.5 million people in a largenumber of US cities followed for 16 years)
4
Adapted from Pope et al 2002
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Annual meanlevel
PM10(µg/m3)
PM2.5(µg/m3)
Basis for the selected level
Interim target-1(IT-1)
70 35 Levels associated with about15% higher long-term mortalitythan at AQG
Interim target-2(IT-2)
50 25 Risk of premature mortalitydecreased by approximately6% compared to IT1
Interim target-3(IT-3)
30 15 Mortality risk reduced byapproximately 6% compared toIT2 levels.
Air qualityguideline(AQG)
20 10 Lowest levels at which total,CP and LCA mortality havebeen shown to increase (Popeet al., 2002). The use of PM2.5guideline is preferred.
WHO AQG: Global update 2005
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PassinginterimtargetsonthewaytowardsAQGPassinginterimtargetsonthewaytowardsAQG
Exposure
Effect
AQG IT-2 IT-1
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Implications of no threshold
ConcentrationResponse
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Implementation of exposure reductionconcept for PM2.5 in the UK
Health based, and quantified by cost-benefitanalysis
1. 15% reduction in average annual urbanbackground concentrations 2010 - 2020
2. Backstop objective (concentration cap) of25µ/m3 applicable to all areas. To provideminimum protection.
8The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland, 2008