City Study and Automated Transport Systems Assessment in the ...

CITIES DEMONSTRATING AUTOMATED ROAD PASSANGER TRANSPORT

European Research Program CityMobil2

D7.1 Brussels-Capital Region context and Automated Transport Systems Assessment

SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME

THEME SST.2012.3.1-4.

AUTOMATED URBAN VEHICLES

COLLABORATIVE PROJECT – GRANT AGREEMENT N°: 314190

Work Package WP.7

Deliverable number D7.1

Authors Louis Duvigneaud ; Pierre-Yves Ancion ; Jeoffrey Honoré

Co-authors Pierre Schmitz ; Karl Determe

Authors’ affiliation BruxellesMobilité ; Stratec ; GEA

Status Final

Dissemination level (PU/PP/RE/CO)

Delivery date (planned): Mxx-31.10.2013

Delivery date (actual): Mxx-26.11.2013

Page | 2 D7.1 Brussels-Capital Region context and ATS Assessment, version 1

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5

1.1 City study framework .............................................................................................. 5

1.2 City study goals and scope ..................................................................................... 5

1.3 City study methodology ........................................................................................... 5

2. Brussels city and local transport system description ...................................................... 6

2.1 Urban structure and topography .............................................................................. 6

2.2 Transport networks ................................................................................................. 9

2.2.1 Road network................................................................................................... 9

2.2.2 Public transports ............................................................................................ 11

2.3 Regional planning ................................................................................................. 13

3. Problems, Objectives and expected impacts ................................................................ 16

3.1 Problems .............................................................................................................. 16

3.2 Objectives ............................................................................................................. 16

3.3 Potential impacts .................................................................................................. 16

4. Identification of potential sites ...................................................................................... 17

4.1 European district ................................................................................................... 18

4.1.1 Presentation of the study area ....................................................................... 18

4.1.2 Demand estimation ........................................................................................ 26

4.1.3 System pre-design ......................................................................................... 37

4.1.4 Initial assessment .......................................................................................... 39

4.1.5 Initial practical feasibility analyses .................................................................. 40

4.2 The Heysel ........................................................................................................... 41






4.3 Saint Luc Clinics ................................................................................................... 56







5. Intra city site selection .................................................................................................. 72

6. Initial evaluation ........................................................................................................... 74

7. System dimensioning ................................................................................................... 79

7.1 Demand analysis .................................................................................................. 79

7.1.1 Modeling tools ................................................................................................ 79

7.1.2 Modal Choice in Brussels model .................................................................... 80

7.1.3 Assignment .................................................................................................... 94

7.2 Supply dimensioning ............................................................................................. 95

7.3 Urban integration .................................................................................................. 97

7.3.1 Safety behaviour ............................................................................................ 97

7.3.2 Vehicle characteristics ................................................................................... 98

7.3.3 Stations .......................................................................................................... 98

7.3.4 Automated vehicles itinerary .......................................................................... 99

7.3.5 Accompanying measures ............................................................................. 109

7.4 Citizen awareness campaign plan ....................................................................... 112

7.4.1 Citizen awareness campaign context ........................................................... 112

7.4.2 Step 1 - campaign aims and objectives ........................................................ 115

7.4.3 Step 2 – Formative research: target population segmentation and baseline

evaluation .................................................................................................................. 116

7.4.4 Step 3 – Campaigning the campaign: stakeholders and political support ..... 118

7.4.5 Step 4 - social Marketing mix ....................................................................... 119

7.4.6 Step 5 - SWOT analysis ............................................................................... 122

8. Ex-ante evaluation ..................................................................................................... 123

9. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 128


1. Introduction

1.1 City study framework

Today‟s technologies allow vehicles to drive themselves autonomously on roads and bring

up a wide range of implementation opportunities. Although automated individual cars will not

be available on the short term due to legislative, safety and liability problems, automated

vehicles are currently becoming the basis of new forms of urban transportation.

However, several barriers are still hampering the deployment of automated vehicles for

public transport improvement including the legal framework that does not allow self-driving

vehicles on normal roads, the implementation of the system that can be relatively complex

and the economic benefit that are still uncertain.

1.2 City study goals and scope

Therefore, CityMobil2 project aim at supporting the development of automated transport

systems by implementing large-scale pilot platforms for technical and socioeconomic test in

urban environments.

Brussels-Mobility, Stratec and GEA are part of the consortium in charge of the project and

are leading the candidacy of Brussels-Capital Region for hosting a pilot automated transport

system demonstration.

1.3 City study methodology

In this report, we first present Brussels political and planning context. Public transport

organisation and local problems that could be solved by the introduction of innovative

transport systems are also investigated. Then, potential sites, where automated transport

system could be implemented, are identified and investigated. Finally, the most suitable

opportunity is further investigated regarding to the itinerary, the dimensioning of the demand

and the supply, the urban integration and the citizen awareness campaign.


2. Brussels city and local transport system description

2.1 Urban structure and topography

Brussels-Capital Region is located approximately in the middle of Belgium. The region

spreads over 161 km² and has a population of 1.1 million inhabitants. The actual urban area

extends beyond the limits of the administrative entity, over a part of the Flemish and the

Walloon Regions. The metropolitan area has therefore a population of more than 1.8 million

inhabitants, making it the largest in Belgium.

Figure 1 : Map of Brussels in North-Western Europe

Belgium is a constitutional and parliamentary monarchy although the king, Albert II, has

limited prerogatives. Political powers are mainly segregated into three levels:

- The federal government based in Brussels. Its authority includes most national

matters: justice, foreign affairs, defence, health, social security, federal police,

monetary policy, public debt, finances, etc.

- The 3 communities (Flemish, French and German-speaking). Their authority is

relatively limited and concerns mainly matters related to the language: culture,

education, etc.

- The 3 regions (Brussels-Capital, Flemish and Walloon). Their authority includes

land use planning, urbanism, housing, public works, transports, foreign trade,

economy, employment, agriculture, environment and energy.

Brussels Capital Region has a parliament and a government.

- Brussels parliament is constituted of 89 members elected by the population every

5 years.

London

Dublin

Amsterdam

Luxembourg

Paris

Berlin

Copenhagen

Berne

Brussels


- Brussels government is chosen by the parliament. It is headed by a Minister-

President (currently Charles Picqué), four ministers and three state secretaries.

The state secretary in charge of mobility matters is currently Bruno De Lille and the state

secretary in charge of the transports is Brigitte Grouwels. Their work is supported by the

administrations of the region.

“Brussels Mobility”, who is leading the candidacy of Brussels Capital Region in CityMobil2

project, is the administration of the region for equipment, infrastructure and mobility issues.

They develop mobility strategies, maintain and develop public spaces, roads and public

transport infrastructures.

At the local scale, Brussels Capital Region comprises 19 municipalities with individual

responsibilities for local matters. Municipal administration is conducted by a mayor, a

council, and an executive.

Figure 2 : The Brussels-Capital Region and its 19 municipalities

As described previously, Brussels has its own political institutions. However, as it is the

capital of Belgium and because it is located in the middle of the country, the city also hosts

many national or regional institutions.

These institutions include the federal government and the federal parliament. Brussels is

also the seat of the Flemish regional parliament and of both the French and the Flemish

Communities.

At the international level, Brussels is sometimes considered as the capital of the European

Union as it hosts most of European institutions:

- The European Commission

- The Council of the European Union


- Brussels hemicycle where a number of plenary sessions of the parliament take

place

- Several other institutions including the Committee of the Regions, the Economic

and Social Committee and the Council of European Municipalities and Regions.

Figure 3 : The European Commission in the European District

The seat of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is also located in Brussels.

In total, Brussels hosts more than 120 international institution, 200 embassies or consulates

and more than 2500 diplomats which makes of Brussels the world‟s second seat of

diplomatic representations.

The numerous functions played by the city and the increasing number of institutions settling

in Brussels have forced the government and the administrations to elaborate new strategies

to develop the city in an efficient and harmonious way.

Due to its central location in a very active region of Europe, Brussels is an important centre

for business. The economy is dominated by enterprises headquarters, national or

international institutions and administrations and therefore largely service oriented. The

consequence is a large number of jobs for highly skilled people but a relatively low number

of jobs for less educated workers. This explains a higher unemployment rate in Brussels

compared to the other regions.

Brussels has several universities (ULB, VUB, UCL, Saint-Louis), schools and research

centres that provide high quality education and participate in numerous research programs

and business developments.

Relatively small compared to other capitals of Europe such as Paris and London, Brussels is

progressively developing its reputation and attracts more tourists every year. Must sees are

the Grand Place and more generally the architecture of the city centre. However, Brussels is

also appreciated for its restaurants, shopping, nightlife and festivals. Brussels is also an

active place for museums, exhibitions and conferences. The region hosts, for instance,

“Brussels Expo”, Belgium‟s biggest exhibition centre.


Figure 4: Grand Place of Brussels

2.2 Transport networks

2.2.1 Road network

Brussels has a central location in Belgium road network. Therefore, the city is connected to a

great number of motorways leading to most other surrounding cities (Antwerp, Ghent, Liège,

Namur, Charleroi, etc.).

These motorways are interconnected by a ring (R0) that surrounds Brussels Capital Region.

Inside the city, major axes lead the traffic towards the city centre and connect two other

rings: the greater ring (which is only half a ring on the East side of the city) and the inner

ring. These main axes (generally classified as “metropolitan” or “main” roads) are then

connected to secondary roads (generally classified as “Inter-suburb”, “collector” or “local”

roads). Most metropolitan and main roads are managed by the Region whereas inter-

suburb, collector and local roads are managed by the municipalities.


Figure 5: Road network in Brussels Capital Region

Although the use of public transports is increasing every year, cars are still the first mean of

transport in Brussels Capital Region. For more than half a million trips occurring daily during

peak hours, about 60% are travelled by car.

Furthermore, Brussels economic activities provide a high number of jobs, not only for

Brussels inhabitants but also for many commuters living in the other regions. In 2008, for

686 500 jobs, 356 500 (51.9%) were held by commuters1.

1Eures, The European Job Mobility Portal, http://ec.europa.eu/eures/

Motorway

Metropolitan roads

Main roads

Inter-suburb roads

Collector road

Local road

Ring (R0)

Ring (R0)

E40

Brussels

Airport

E40

E19 E411

E19 A12

Mechelen

Antwerp

Leuven

Liège

Namur

Luxembourg Charleroi

Lille

Paris

Ghent Bruges

Antwerp

Inner Ring

Greater Ring


These reasons explain partly that Brussels is currently one of the most congested cities in

Europe. In the last decade, a range of measures including parking pricing and several

improvements of the public transport network have been implemented to reduce the use of

cars. These measures have caused partly an important increase of public transport use

(+60%) but only a stabilization of car use.

Several measures will also be implemented in the next few years including perhaps a road

pricing and a reduction of parking capacity (- 25 000 parking spaces).All these measures

should induce a modal shift from cars to public transports and help Brussels-Capital Region

to reach its objective of reduction of GHG emissions (-20% in 2015 compared 1999).

2.2.2 Public transports

Transports in Brussels have a long history. Back in 1835, Brussels already became the first

city in continental Europe to be connected on a railway.

Not long after, approximately between 1842 and 1868, appeared the first lines of omnibus

that picked up and dropped off passengers on a regular route, then in 1869 was launched

the first tramway using horses to haul the cars on steel rails. Tramway network progressively

extended and changed to steam and then to electric power. In 1945 the network was more

than 240 km long. In the same time, bus network initiated in 1907 was also developing.

Figure 6: Post card of Brussels tramways

Since then, public transport network has evolved considerably. Nowadays, it includes 50 bus

lines, 18 tramway lines and 4 metro (or underground) lines. All lines are integrated in a

global network and run by a unique operator (STIB). First metro lines were opened in 1976

and have been extended to connect a total of 60 metro stations, most of them built

underground. Figure 7 represent the current public transport network in the centre of

Brussels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_Intercommunal_Transport_Company


Figure 7: Extract of the map of public transports in Brussels

In 2011, the numbers of annual trips were estimated to 126 millions on metro lines, 112

millions on tramway lines and 92 millions on bus lines. These numbers are increasing every

year.

Bus, tramway and metro fleet is relatively modern although some of the tramways and

metros have to be renewed in the next few years. Some of the models run in Brussels are

presented in Figure 8.

Figure 8: left: bus in Brussels, middle: tramway in Brussels, right: metro in Brussels

In addition to the regional services, several bus lines operated by the Walloon (TEC) or the

Flemish (De Lijn) public transport companies also run in Brussels in order to connect

Brussels city centre with the Walloon and the Flemish Regions.

Brussels Capital Region has also an extensive rail network with 8 lines and 29 stations.

Railway management and operation is shared by 2 companies: Infrabel maintain and control

the network whereas SNCB run the trains and is in charge of the stations. All of the 29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TEC_%28transport%29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Lijn


stations in Brussels Capital Region are connected with one or several bus, tramway or metro

lines.

In the future, rail network will be significantly upgraded with the Regional Express Network

(REN) that should be implemented between 2016 and 2025.REN is an express transit

system that offers fast connections and increased frequency within a 30 km radius of

Brussels.

Brussels (and more particularly Brussels-South station) is also a major component of the

European High Speed Train network.TGV, Thalys, Eurostar and ICE high speed trains start

or stop in Brussels and connect most European cities. London is at 1h 51min from Brussels,

Amsterdam 1h 53min, Köln 1h 47min and Paris 1h 22min.

2.3 Regional planning

As mentioned previously, “Brussels Mobility”, the administration in charge of the transports,

is investigating how to improve public transports and reduce road traffic congestion. It is

clear that sustainable mobility will only be reached by implementing integrated solutions

taking in consideration all transport modes. Therefore, various solutions are already

available in Brussels Capital Region:

- Cambio car sharing: This scheme allows subscribers to rent a car for short

periods of time. There are more than 90 different locations available in the region.

- ZenCars: This is also a car sharing scheme with the particularity of being 100%

electric. There are 16 different locations available in the region.

- Villo bike sharing: There are more than 200 stations where shared bikes are

available.

- Collecto: this is a collective taxi service. There are 200 stations where users can

get in specific taxis that collect and drop off other users on the road.

- Karzoo platform to organise carpooling

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels-South_railway_station

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_Europe

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TGV

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalys

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercity-Express


Figure 9: Some of the alternative solutions available in Brussels: left to right and top to bottom: Cambio car-sharing, Zencar car-sharing, Villo bike-sharing and Collecto collective taxi service

The operator of public transports in Brussels Capital Region (STIB) is also working on a

project that will make current metro lines 1 and 5 fully automatic by 2016.

Figure 10: PULSAR automatic metro.

Globally the region aims at reducing road traffic by 20% within the next few years to reduce

traffic congestion and other related issues (e.g. atmospheric pollutant and greenhouse gas

emissions, noise).

To reach its objectives, Brussels Capital Region is investigating a set of measures that will

be implemented in the next few years. These measures include a road pricing system and

the increase of parking fees.


First, to struggle against the road traffic increase, Brussels Capital Region has decided to set

up a road. The urban tolls creation in the region area should regulate the traffic and other

related nuisances.

These restrictive measures will be supported by the new Regional Express Network (REN)

and the development of cycling paths that will offer new alternatives to current road users.

Metros, tramways and buses are also continuously improved by extending lines, increasing

frequency and creating new connections between different public transport means.


3. Problems, Objectives and expected impacts

3.1 Problems

Although Brussels has an extensive public transport network, city context analysis has

highlighted issues that remain unsolved, including road traffic congestion. At the local level,

accessibility by public transports is also not always optimal.

3.2 Objectives

To improve public transports and reduce road traffic congestion, one potential solution is the

deployment of automated vehicles.

3.3 Potential impacts

Based on the diagnostic, we first investigated all potential sites where automated vehicles

could be implemented. For all the sites we analysed issues that could be solved by the new

system and the suitability of the system (feasibility, urban integration, etc.). Three of these

sites stood out as particularly interesting and were further investigated. In the following

chapter, we explain how sites were selected and then for each site we describe the context,

the local issues and how automated vehicles could help resolving these issues.


4. Identification of potential sites

The site selection started with a wide screening of Brussels Capital Region. Mobility issues

were identified and the solutions that could provide automated vehicles were investigated.

This first selection step highlighted 7 potential sites spread relatively evenly across the

region. A multiple criteria decision analysis was then applied to identify the best sites for

automated vehicles implementation. The following parameters were considered:

- Size of the demand

- Time distribution of the demand

- Targeting an actual use of automated vehicles as a transport mode and not as a

“tourist attraction”

- Technical feasibility

- Urban integration

- Visibility

This analysis selected 3 potential sites: the Heysel, Saint-Luc Clinics and the European

District. These sites are described in the following sections.

Figure 11: Map of Brussels Capital Region and of the three potential sites: the Heysel, Saint-Luc Clinics and the European district.

Heysel

Saint Luc Clinics

European district


4.1 European district

4.1.1 Presentation of the study area

The European district, also called European quarter, corresponds approximately to the wide

area located between Brussels Park, Cinquantenaire Park and Leopold Park. The European

Commission and the European Council are located in the heart of this area close to

Schuman roundabout. The European Parliament is located further North next to Luxembourg

Square.

This area of Brussels, previously known as the Leopold Quarter, was initially residential but

changed progressively to an office oriented area even before the arrival of European

institutions. Historical buildings, although still present in some parts of the area, are now

often replaced by modern offices.

The fast development of the area did not always take place according to a high quality

master plan or to government initiatives, but often according to speculative private sector

projects. This led to a relative heterogeneity of architectural styles. However, more recently

large government investments in the quarter have been made and authorities point out that

previous unregulated development are now framed by a precise master plan.

The illustration bellow locates the different buildings and parks present in the European

quarter.


Figure 12: Location of the buildings of the European Union

4.1.1.1 Commission buildings

The most iconic structure is the Berlaymont, the primary seat of the Commission. It was the

first building to be constructed for the Community, in the 1960‟s.

Charlemagne building, the second largest building of the Commission hosts the external

relations department.

Throughout the quarter, the Commission occupies 865 000m² in more than 60 buildings. The

Berlaymont and Charlemagne building are the only ones over 50 000m². Due to the

accession of 12 new members in 2004 and 2007, the staff has risen by 2 250, demanding an

extra 35 000m² of office space. Due to raising concerns that further buildings within the

district would create a "ghetto effect", the Commission has, since 2004, begun decentralizing

its institutions across the city (in areas such as “avenue de Beaulieu” and “rue de Genève” in

Evere municipality).

4.1.1.2 Other institutions

Justus Lipsius building is located on the other side of the street “Rue de la Loi” than the

Berlaymont. It hosts the Council of the European Union and the European Council. The

Council's secretariat was originally based in the city centre and is now in the Charlemagne

Commission

Parliament

Council

Other

Green space

Pedestrian area

Railway station

Metro station


building but will move to the Residence Palace located next to Justus Lipsius building during

2013.

Buildings used by the Parliament are located a little further South between Leopold Park and

Luxembourg Square. The complex, called "Espace Léopold", is composed of two main

buildings: Paul-Henri Spaak and Altiero Spinelli which cover 372,000 m². These buildings

have recently been extended with 2 new extensions (D4 and D5 buildings completed in 2007

and 2008) and should provide enough space for the next 10 to 15 years. It has to be noted

that these buildings only hosts some of the Parliament sessions, as the Parliament work is

also split between Strasbourg (the official seat) and Luxembourg (the secretariat).

The European External Action Service is based in the Triangle building located on Schuman

roundabout opposite to the Council building and the Berlaymont.

The Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions together occupy

Delors building, located next to Leopold Park. These institutions also use Bertha von Suttner

building.

All these buildings of the European Quarter represent important job centres. For example,

the European Commission provide approximately 20 000 jobs, the European Parliament

more than 5000 jobs, the Council of the European Union 3500 jobs, the European Economic

and SocialCommittee800jobsand the Committee of the Regions of the European Union 600

jobs. These important activity centres are scattered across the whole area and can be

distant from a few 100 meters to several kilometres.

The illustration below locates the most important spots of the European quarter.


Figure 13: European Quarter

Luxembourg square and European parliament

European commission buildings

located on « rue de La Loi »

Square de Meeûs

European Union Council

Berlaymont

European Economic and Social

Committee and Committee of the

Regions

European Union Council

Justus Lipsisus building


4.1.1.3 Local transport network

Railway

The European quarter has two railway stations: Brussels-Schuman station and Luxembourg

station. Both are located on the same line (161), an important line connecting Brussels and

Namur. The frequency of services is 3 trains per hour to Brussels-Midi, 2 trains per hour to

Louvain-la-Neuve and 3 trains per hour to Liers, Binche and Luxembourg.

Metro

Two actual metro lines go through the European quarter. However, both of them combined

two different lines (or more exactly 2 different services) that run on the same railway in the

area but split further on the line.

From West to East:

- Line 1: Stockel - West Station and Line 5: Herrmann-Debroux – Erasmus. These two lines stop in 3 stations: Schuman, Maelbeek and Arts-Loi.

From North to South:

- Line 2: Simonis (Leopold II) - Simonis (Elisabeth) and Line 6: Roi Baudouin - Simonis (Elisabeth). These lines stop in two stations in the study area: Arts-Loi and Trône.

The connection between these 2 lines is therefore possible in their common station: Arts-Loi.

Buses

Eight bus lines run across the quarter:

- Bus 22:Montgomery - Luxembourg

- Bus 59:Bordet Station - Hôpital Etterbeek-Ixelles

- Bus 64:Machelen - Porte de Namur

- Bus 80: Maes - Porte de Namur

- Bus 21:Brussels Airport - Luxembourg

- Bus 12:Brussels Airport - Brussels City

- Bus 36:Schuman - Konkel

- Bus 60:Ambiorix - Uccle Calevoet

Only a few lines run on an exclusive way.

The illustration below locates public transport lines in the area.


Figure 14: public transport network in the European quarter

Arts-Loi

Schuman

Maelbeek

Schuman

Maelbeek

Arts-Loi

Trône

Metro station

Railway station

Bus stop

Metro line

Railway

Bus line


4.1.1.4 Problems and objectives

Short trips between institutions

As described previously, European institutions were integrated in an existing urban area.

Therefore, available surfaces were not always located next to each other and institutions had

to be scattered across a relatively wide area.

In consequence, although the activities of the different institutions are strongly interlinked, the

distances between the buildings can be 1 or 2 kilometers long. Therefore, institution

employees and visitors frequently have to travel from one point to another one on distances

that can require a 15 to 20 minutes walk. Although traditional public transports are well

developed in the quarter, they are not efficient for this type of trips and employees or visitors

prefer to walk (which can be relatively time consuming), to use taxi services or even to use

their own cars.

In this context, the deployment of automated vehicles could facilitate and accelerate greatly

short trips between different institutions. Therefore, the first objective would be to reduce the

travel time between institutions and encourage contacts between them. A modal shift from

personal cars and taxis to a shared automated system could also improve air quality and

decrease traffic congestion.

Activity of residential areas

Although European institutions represent an important part of the buildings present in the

quarter, numerous streets remained dedicated to residential purposes. Furthermore, the

quarter master plan supports the development of residential buildings to keep a balance

between offices and habitat.

However, these residential areas are often surrounded by offices and include very few shops

restaurants or bars open in the evening. Most commercial surfaces are occupied by cafes or

restaurants dedicated to employees and open from early in the morning to mid-afternoon.

A continuous service of automated vehicles could improve significantly the connection

between residential areas and areas more active in the evening (such as Luxembourg square

or “rue du Trône”). An automated transport system could therefore help revitalizing residential

areas and improve their attractiveness.

Modal ratio of European institutions employees

Despite a relatively good service by public transport in the quarter, the ratio of commuters

travelling by car remains high. As road traffic congestion is a real issue in Brussels Capital

Region, it is important to reduce this ratio.

As described previously, one reason that can explain the high ratio of commuters travelling by

cars is the distance between institutions and the distance between the train or the metro

stations and the buildings. Automated vehicles could decrease the transit time between modes


and connect more directly important centres of employment with public transport stations. This

should induce a modal shift from cars to public transports.

4.1.1.5 Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

Important synergies with existing public transport network

Some roads are congested and could challenge the technical feasibility

Connexion with bus, train and metro stations Numerous one-way streets

High demand

Demand spread evenly during the day

Demand spread evenly across the whole quarter

Constant demand (during the week)

High international visibility

Enthusiastic stakeholders

4.1.1.6 Expected impacts

Numerous impacts are expected for all sites identified. Therefore, to assess the suitability of

each site and, later, to assess the success of each implementation of an automated transport

system, evaluation indicators will be required. These indicators are summarized in the

following table. Indicators that are relevant for all systems wherever they are implemented are

highlighted in green. Other indicators can be specific to one or several sites and their selection

generally depends on site specific objectives.

In the case of European district most specific indicators are related to user perception and

transport efficiency. Toxic emissions will also be assessed as the area supports intense and

often congested road traffic, particularly on “Rue de la Loi” and “Rue Belliard”.

Table 1: Proposed impact indicators for European district

Evaluation category Impacts Indicators

Acceptance

User acceptance

Usefulness

Ease of use

Integration with other systems

Willingness to pay User willingness

Authorities willingness

Quality of service

comfort Perceived comfort

Perception of safety and security Perception of safety

Fear of attack



Transport patterns

Modal change

Induced mode changes in the other segments of the journey

System modal share

System use

Total passenger.km travelled

Total number of trips

Vehicle occupancy

System performances

Average Journey time per OD pair

Average waiting time

Interchange time

System capacity Effective system capacity

Social impacts Spatial accessibility

Change in range of key activities within time thresholds

Distribution of accessibility changes by social groups

Service accessibility Access times for mobility impaired users

Environment

Energy Daily consumption

Energy efficiency

Land take Change in road space availability to other users

Financial impacts

Start up costs

Track construction and civil works

Vehicle acquisition/construction

Control systems and apparatus

Operating costs

Personnel

Vehicle maintenance

Track and civil infrastructures maintenance

Control system maintenance

Revenues Operating revenues

Economic impacts

Temporary job provided by installation and demonstration

Jobs provided at the demonstration site

Efficiency

Financial Net Present Value

Socio-economic Net Present Value

Internal Rate of Return

Benefit/Cost ratio

4.1.2 Demand estimation

4.1.2.1 General description of itineraries

Itinerary selection was based on several criteria. The main criterion was the connection with

public transport nodes and major centres of attraction or emissions. As described previously,

main centres of attraction or emissions in European district consist of European institutions

and private offices and some limited residential buildings and commercial areas.

Although these centres are numerous and relatively close to each other, the choice of

itineraries was constrained by several characteristics of the district. Due to the dense

urbanisation of the zone, local roads are often narrow and only allow single direction traffic.

Furthermore, larger roads generally support an important traffic and can be congested at peak

hours (especially on “rue Belliard” and “rue de la Loi”). Therefore, itinerary selection required

many field observations to take in consideration operational and technical aspects. Narrow

streets and crossings of congested roads have been avoided as much as possible. Sites


requiring new constructions or adjustments to enable the automated transport implementation

have also been avoided.

As a result, two potential itineraries have been selected. Both of them connect important public

transport nodes, employment centres and commercial areas.

Itinerary 1 is 3.1 km long and goes from the Brussels-Luxembourg train station to the

Berlaymont before going back to the train station. It includes 11 stops (5 going North and 6

going South) and connects several important transport nodes (Schuman and Maalbeek metro

stations, Brussels-Luxembourg train station) and several important European institutions (the

European Union Council, the Comity of the European Union Regions, the European Social

and Economics Comity and the European Parliament).

Itinerary 2, also 3.1 km long, connects the southern part of the European Parliament

esplanade and Trone metro station via Frère-Orban square, before going back to the

esplanade. It includes 12 stops: 5 going from the parliament to Trone metro station and 7

going from Trone to the parliament.

The following maps and figures present the two itineraries.


Gare du

Luxembourg

ParcLéopold

Maelbeek

Livingstone

Berlaymont/Schuman

Comité des

Régions UE

Toulouse

Trèves

0 100 200m

Trône

Arts-Loi

Schuman

Maelbeek

Ambiorix

Metro station

Railway station

Bus stop

Automated transport:

Line

Stop

Figure 15 : Itinerary 1 for the innovating transport system in the European Area (Stratec)


Pictures of itinerary 1:

Figure 16 : Description of the itinerary 1 for the innovating transport system in the European Area (Stratec)

Automated transport route


.

Figure 17 : Street views of itinerary 1 in European District

12


Arts-Loi

Metro station

Railway station

Bus stop

Automated transport:

Line

Stop

0 100 200m

Trône

Schuman

Maelbeek

Museum

Gare du

Luxembourg

Place du

Luxembourg

Marie de

Bourgogne

Béliard

Guimard

Montoyerint

erchange

Trône

Figure 18 : Itinerary 2 for the innovating transport system in the European Area (Stratec)


Pictures of itinerary 2 :

Figure 19 : Description of itinerary 2 for the innovating transport system in the European Area



Figure 20 : Street views of itinerary 2in the European District


4.1.2.2 Demand estimation

Several databases were analysed to carry out the demand estimation of the automated public

transport system. The analysis of European District urban organisation, of its public transport

use and of the local companies‟ mobility plans has enabled the assessment of this daily

demand.

The following map represents offices location in the district.

Companies employing more than 100 people are also required to develop a specific mobility

plan and it was therefore possible to locate them on the map. Results are presented in the

following figure.

Figure 21 : Land occupation in the European District (Stratec)


Figure 22 : Location of the main employment centers (>100 employees) in European District (Stratec)


Data of public transport ridership were extracted from the regional public transport model for

the year 2011. Data included the number of people accessing or exiting each of the stations in

connection with the automated transport system. Data also included the ratios of trip purposes

(home to work, home to school, home to others and not linked to home).

For each stop of the itinerary connected with public transports and for each trip purpose, we

estimated, based on local characteristics, the likelihood that a potential user would be

interested in the new transport system. For example, for home to work commuters, we

estimated the proportion of users going into the direction of the new service based on the

location of the main employment centres. As a result, we obtained for each stop, a global

coefficient that represents the proportion of the people accessing or exiting the public transport

station who would use the new system. The results are presented in the following tables.

Table 2: Demand estimation for itinerary 1 of European District

Arrêt Montées + Descentes Coefficient global de

demande Demande

Gare Luxembourg 9737 37.88% 3688

Comité des Régions UE 0 31.43% 0

Parc Léopold 25 23.14% 6

Maelbeek (2 sens) 11910 31.65% 3770

Livingstone (2 sens) 533 34.58% 184

Ambiorix 939 35.87% 337

Berlaymont 28911 12.49% 3610

Toulouse 301 25.27% 76

Trèves 158 19.88% 31

TOTAL 11702

Table 3: Demand estimation for the itinerary 2 of the European District

Arrêt Montées + Descentes

Coefficient global de demande Demande

Museum 0 49.13% 0

Gare Luxembourg (2 sens) 8110 61.35% 6946

Place du Luxembourg (2 sens) 1628 51.53% 1239

Marie de Bourgogne (2 sens) 0 64.58% 0

MontoyerInterchange (2 sens) 0 60.04% 0

Trone 1473 45.83% 1038

Guimard 27 37.31% 16

Belliard 2 51.94% 2

TOTAL 9241

Both itineraries present a high demand comprised between 9 241 trips per day for itinerary 2

and 11 702 trips per day for itinerary 1.


4.1.3 System pre-design

The quantitative method developed by CTL to pre-design the advanced transport system was

used in the present study. It requires several parameters, including the demand estimation and

the itinerary length, to carry out the simulation.

Then the maximum allowed speed (vmax), the vehicle capacity (vc) and the maximum waiting

time (t) must be defined. The choice of these three parameters enables to determine the pre-

design coefficients for the number of vehicles (an and bn), the vehicle.kilometers run (aveh km

and bveh km), the commercial speed (av and bv) and the occupancy rate (apax/km and bpax/km)

through the tables 4 and 5 from the Annex C of the City study design, evaluation and selection

methodology. The values of these parameters are presented here:

Maximum allowed speed:𝐯𝐦𝐚𝐱 = 𝟐𝟓 𝐤𝐦/𝐡

Vehicle capacity:𝐯𝐜 = 𝟏𝟎 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬

Maximum waiting time: 𝐭 = 𝟐𝟓𝟎 𝐬

The parameters concerning the number of vehicles and the number of vehicle.kilometers

travelled were then extracted from the tables:

𝑎𝑛 = 1.1 . 10−3

𝑏𝑛 = 1.08

𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 1.8 . 10−1

𝑏𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 131.8

𝑎𝑣 = 22.020

𝑏𝑣 = −0.0641

𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑥 /𝑘𝑚 = 2.94 . 10−2

𝑏𝑝𝑎𝑥 /𝑘𝑚 = 5.37


These parameters were introduced in Annex C formulas to obtain four main outputs:

Itinerary 1 (Daily demand: 𝑫 = 𝟏𝟏 𝟕𝟎𝟐 and Itinerary length: 𝑳 = 𝟑.𝟏 𝒌𝒎)

Number of vehicles: 𝒏 = 𝑳 𝒂𝒏.𝑫

𝑳+ 𝒃𝒏 = 𝟏𝟔.𝟐𝟐

Total vehicle.kilometers run: 𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝑳 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎.𝑫

𝑳+ 𝒃𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝟐 𝟓𝟏𝟒.𝟗𝟕

Average commercial speed of the vehicles: 𝒗 = 𝒂𝒗. 𝑫

𝑳 𝒃𝒗

= 𝟏𝟐.𝟗𝟗 𝒌𝒎/𝒉

Occupancy rate: 𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎 = 𝒂𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎.𝑫

𝒏+ 𝒃𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎 = 𝟐𝟔.𝟓𝟖 𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔/𝒌𝒎

The results from the simulation for itinerary 1 reveal that 17 automatic vehicles would be

required to fully absorb the demand. In that case, the total number of vehicle.kilometers

travelled would be 2 515, the average commercial speed would be 13 km/h and the

occupancy rate of system would be close to 27 passenger/km.


Itinerary 2 (Daily demand: 𝑫 = 𝟗 𝟐𝟒𝟏 and Itinerary length: 𝑳 = 𝟑.𝟏 𝒌𝒎)


𝑳+ 𝒃𝒏 = 𝟏𝟑.𝟓𝟏

Total vehicle.kilometers run: 𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝑳 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎.𝑫

𝑳+ 𝒃𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝟐 𝟎𝟕𝟏.𝟗𝟖


𝑳 𝒃𝒗

= 𝟏𝟑.𝟏𝟗 𝒌𝒎/𝒉


𝒏+ 𝒃𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎 = 𝟐𝟓.𝟒𝟖 𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔/𝒌𝒎

The calculations in this case reveal that itinerary 2 would require 14 automated vehicles to

fully absorb the demand. With 14 vehicles, the total of vehicle.kilometers travelled would be

2 072, average commercial speed would be 13.2 km/h and the occupancy rate would be

close to 26 passenger/km.

Finally, the average waiting time was extracted from table 6 of the City study design,

evaluation and selection methodology.

Minimum average waiting time: 𝑾𝑻𝒎𝒊𝒏 = 𝟓𝟓 𝒔

Maximum average waiting time:𝑾𝑻𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 𝟗𝟎 𝒔

This average time is the same for both of the two itineraries and is included between 55 and

90 seconds.

4.1.4 Initial assessment

The following initial conclusions concerning the innovating transport system can be drawn

from our analysis.

The European District is located in a central and urbanised part of the Brussels-Capital

Region and includes several European institutions and numerous private offices. Therefore,

the district has a very dense activity which implies an important demand of the new transport

system.

Activities are evenly spread across the whole district and remain relatively unchanged during

the week. Therefore, the demand is evenly spread along the itineraries and relatively steady

over time.

Main disadvantages of European District are related to the width of the streets, the presence

of several one way streets and road traffic that can be congested during peak hours.


4.1.5 Initial practical feasibility analyses

4.1.5.1 Technical promptness

Both itineraries are totally integrated in local traffic and include several crossroads with major

accesses to or exits from Brussels city centre. These roads support an important traffic and

their maximum capacity is frequently reach during peak hours (especially rue Belliard).

Therefore, itinerary roads cannot be adapted to provide lanes dedicated to automated

vehicles and priority cannot be given to automated vehicles at each crossroad.

A successful implementation of automated transport system on these itineraries would

therefore require the use of vehicles able to drive autonomously in real traffic and according

to local driving rules.

The activity in the streets can also be intense during working hours and circulation of

vehicles often requires coping with obstacles (taxis, delivery trucks, etc.). Automated

vehicles would therefore need to be able to resolve complex situations and avoid obstacles.

4.1.5.2 Legal promptness

Both itineraries are located on public roads where an automated transport system would be

subject to all general driving rules. As there is no specific regulation for automated vehicles,

the main question that would have to be resolved is who is responsible in case of accident.

Given the intense activity of the area during peak hours, the traffic and the high number of

pedestrians, the responsibility in case of accident takes a strategic dimension. It is therefore

likely that any demonstration in the area would require the presence of a driver in each

vehicle at all time.

4.1.5.3 Population promptness

An important part of the population in European district is related to European institutions

activities. People are therefore likely to be interested the implementation of a European

project in the area.

Furthermore, most people have to face frequent traffic congestion problems. Automated

transport system could therefore be well received as it offers a potential solution to improve

local mobility.

4.1.5.4 Political promptness

Both itineraries include roads managed by the Brussels-Capital Region and by the

municipality of Brussels city. Implementation of automated transport systems would

therefore require authorization of two different levels of governance.


4.2 The Heysel


The Heysel is located North of Brussels city centre. The site is composed of several activity

centres in terms of leisure, tourism and exhibitions (public and professional). In total, the

area attracts more than 10 million visitors per year. The most important infrastructures are:

- The Exhibition Park, a complex of buildings and warehouses where various

leisure and professional exhibitions are held. The total attendance exceeds two

million visitors a year with significant peaks of activity during the exhibitions;

- The Kinepolis cinema that attracts about 4.5 million visitors per year (mainly in

the evening and during the weekends);

- The Atomium, an iconic building constructed for 1958 universal exposition. It is

visited by approximately 650 000 tourists every year;

- The leisure site of Bruparck that combines Mini-Europe (attraction park

presenting reproductions of the most famous European monuments at a reduced

scale), a sub-tropical swimming pool and a village of shops and restaurants. The

site attracts about 600 000 visitors per year;

- King Baudouin Stadium with about 500 000 spectators per year.

The area also includes several smaller activity centres such as the Royal Primerose Tennis

Club and Brussels planetarium.

Visitors can access the site by public transports (network described in the next section) or by

car. Many parking lots are available in the area for car users (2,200 public

parkingspacesand12,000 private parking spaces).


Figure 23: The Heysel and the main activity centres

Brussels Exhibition Centre

Atomium

Royal Primerose Tennis Club

Heysel Stadium

Brussels Planétarium

Mini-Europe Park and BruPark


4.2.1.1 Local public transport network

Heysel area is easily accessible by metro and tramway.

Metro

The site is located at the North end of metro line 6 Roi Baudouin - Simonis (Elisabeth) which

goes through the city centre of Brussels.

There are 3 stops in the area: Houba-Brugman, Heysel and Roi Baudouin.

Tramways

Three tram lines pass through the area and stop in 5 different stations. These lines are:

- Line 7:Vanderkindere - Heysel

- Line 51:Van Haelen - Heysel

- Line 94: Stade - Musée du Tram

Lines 7 and 51 stops at Heysel and Centenaire whereas line 94 stops at Stade, Stiénon and

Kufferath.

Buses

Two STIB bus lines (Brussels Intercommunal Transport Company) pass through the area:

- Line 84: Heysel – Beekkant

- Line 88: Heysel - De Brouckère

The illustration below locates the public transport lines in the area.


RoiBaudouin

Houba-Brugmann

Heysel

Metro station

Tramway station

Bus stop

Metro line

Tramway line

Bus line

Roi Baudoin

Heysel

Houba-Brugmann

Figure 24: Heysel site and public transport network



Interconnection between activity centers

The main issue of the area is that it is composed of many activity centers that are not well

interconnected. Visitors often come for a specific objective (to see a movie, go to the

swimming pool, visit the atomium or an exhibition) and do not take the opportunity to combine

several activities.

This is partly due to the distance between the different sites that can be several 100m to a few

kilometers long. This distance is often perceived as too long to walk but too short to use

traditional public transports.

An automated transport system would create a strong link between the different sites present

in the area and encourage visitors to combine multiple activities.

Accessibility of the sites

The public transport service in the quarter is not so good. Indeed the ratio of visitors coming by

car remains high.

Automated vehicles could decrease the transit time between modes and connect more directly

important sites with public transport stations. This should induce a modal shift from cars to

public transports.

Safety to access the car parks

Another problem of the area is that the main car parks are not connected with the entire

activity centers. The installation of an automated transport system will improve this point and

allow the circulation of an important number of people between the different points of interest

in the area.




Demand spread unevenly during the day and the year (peaks during exhibitions and public holidays)

Connexion with bus, tramway and metro stations Conflict of agenda between the current project (2014) and the Neo project (after 2020)

High demand

Demand evenly spread across the whole area

Multiple uses

Un-congested roads


Good international visibility (Atomium)

Possibility of integration in the future Neo project


Indicators to assess the suitability of the site and, later, to assess the success of automated

transport system implementation are presented in the following table. Indicators that are

relevant for all systems wherever they are implemented are highlighted in green. Other

indicators can be specific to one or several sites and their selection generally depends on site

specific objectives.

In the case of the Heysel most specific indicators are related to user perception and transport

efficiency.

Table 4: Proposed impact indicators for the Heysel


Acceptance

User acceptance

Usefulness

Ease of use




Quality of service



Fear of attack

Transport patterns

Modal change


System modal share

System use



Vehicle occupancy

System performances



Interchange time






Environment


Energy efficiency

Climate change CO2


Financial impacts

Start up costs




Operating costs

Personnel

Vehicle maintenance





Economic impacts



Efficiency




Benefit/Cost ratio


4.2.2.1 Itinerary general description

The Heysel consists of several activity centres generally dedicated to exhibitions,

entertainment and tourism. As described previously, about 10 million of people visit the site

every year. Main criteria that were considered to select an itinerary were the location of metro,

tramway and bus stations and the location of activity centers. Roads and crossroads where

the new transport system could disturb road traffic were avoided as much as possible. Sites

where new constructions would have been required to enable the new system implementation

have also been avoided.

Only one itinerary was selected. It is 2.8 km long and goes from the Heysel station, serves

Bruparck, the Atomium, the 12th Hall, reaches the walkway going to Esplanade station and

finally comes back to the Heysel Station via the Exhibition Centre. The itinerary is presented in

the following maps in figures.


Esplanade

Palais 12

Heysel

Brussels

Expo

Bruparck

Atomium

Metro station

Tramway station

Bus stop

Automatic transport:

Line

Stop

Heysel

0 100 200m

Figure 25 : Itinerary of the innovating transport system in Heysel area (Stratec)


Itinerary pictures:

Figure 26 : Description of the itinerary for the innovating transport system in the Heysel area (Stratec)



Figure 27 : Street views of the itinerary in Heysel area (Stratec)



Two types of stops can be distinguished: stops connected with public transport stations

(Heysel and Esplanade) and stops connected with activity centres (Bruparck, Atomium, Hall

12 and Brussels Exhibition Centre).

Heysel and Esplanade stations

The demand for the innovating transport system in these two stations has been estimated

through the number of people accessing or exiting the station. Data were extracted from the

regional public transport model for the year 2011.

For both sites, we estimated the proportion of people going to or coming from one of the

activity centres served by the new transport system and the likelihood that these people used

the system (based on the distance between the station and the activity centre). As a result, we

obtained a global demand coefficient that represents the proportion of people accessing or

exiting the station who would use the new transport system. These coefficients are presented

in the following table.

Table 5: Demand estimation for Heysel and Esplanade stations

Station Number of people accessing or exiting the station per day

Global demand coefficient

Demand estimation (number of exits or

accesses)

Heysel 11330 35% 3966

Esplanade 2078 40% 831

TOTAL 4797

Bruparck, Atomium, Hall 12 and Exhibition Centre stops

For these 4 stops, the demand was estimated based on the number of visitors of the main

activity centres served by the stop. Again, a global coefficient representing the proportion of

visitors who would use the new transport system has been calculated based on the share of

visitors using public transports to access the site and the distance between the exit of the

activity centre and the closest public transport station. Results are presented in the following

table.


Table 6: Demand estimation for the Bruparck, Atomium, Hall 12 and Exhibition Center stops

Station Main activity

centres Yearly visitors

Global demand coefficient

Daily visitors (weekdays)

Demand (number of exits

or accesses)

Bruparck Kinepolis 1 600 000

2 38% 175

668 Bruparck 860 000

3 40% 493

Atomium Atomium 550 0004 40% 93 93

Hall 12 Hall 12 15 000 5 (shows) 28% 0 0

Exhibition Centre (Big-scale Show) (720 000)

6 (37%) (11 700)

6 177 Mid-scale Show 560 000

7 36% 6177

TOTAL 6938

Global demand

The demands for all 6 stations were then summed and the global demand was estimated.

Results are presented in the following table.

Table 7: Demand estimation for the complete itinerary of Heysel site

Station Demand estimation Total demand estimation

Heysel 3966

5867

Bruparck 668

Atomium 93

Palais 12 0

Esplanade 831

Exhibition Centre 6177

TOTAL 11735

The daily demand is estimated to 5 867 trips per day.

2Source : Masterplan

3Source : Masterplan

4 Source : T. Meus

5 Source : articles de presse

















The following parameters concerning the number of vehicles and the vehicle.kilometers run

are then determined through the tables:

𝑎𝑛 = 1.1 . 10−3

𝑏𝑛 = 1.08

𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 1.8 . 10−1

𝑏𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 131.8

𝑎𝑣 = 22.020

𝑏𝑣 = −0.0641

𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑥 /𝑘𝑚 = 2.94 . 10−2



These parameters are then used to obtain four outputs from the pre-design method through

formulas from the Annex C of the City study design, evaluation and selection methodology.

Considering the daily demand 𝐃 = 𝟓 𝟖𝟔𝟕 and the Itinerary length 𝐋 = 𝟐.𝟖 𝐤𝐦 of the itinerary:


𝑳+ 𝒃𝒏 = 𝟗.𝟒𝟖

Total vehicle.kilometres run: 𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝑳 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎.𝑫

𝑳+ 𝒃𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝟏 𝟒𝟐𝟓.𝟏𝟓


𝑳 𝒃𝒗

= 𝟏𝟑.𝟒𝟗 𝒌𝒎/𝒉


𝒏+ 𝒃𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎 = 𝟐𝟑.𝟓𝟕 𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔/𝒌𝒎

Results reveal that the itinerary would require 10 automatic vehicles to fully absorb the

demand. With 10 vehicles, the total number of vehicle.kilometres travelled would be 1 425,

the average commercial speed would be 13.50 km/h and the occupancy rate of the transport

system would be more than 23 passenger/km.

Finally, the average waiting time was determined based on Table 6 of the City study design,




The average time is included between 55 and 90 seconds.


Heysel site is located in the Northern part of the Brussels-Capital Region. Main activity

centres of the site (Bruparck, Kinepolis, the Atomium, the Exhibition Center and the next Hall

12) could be connected by the new transport system and therefore the potential demand is

relatively high (about 6000 trips per day).

Two main stations could be connected to the new system: Heysel station (metro, tramway

and bus) and Esplanade station (tramway station). Therefore, the new system would provide

some interesting synergies with existing public transport network.

The main disadvantage of Heysel site is due to the inconsistency of the demand. Most

events on the site are temporary (especially for the Exhibition centre and the Hall 12) and

other activity centres have a number of visitors that can vary in a very wide range between

week days and week-ends and during holidays. As a consequence, to be successful, the

service would have to be particularly flexible.




The itinerary is totally integrated in local traffic and includes two U turns and a roundabout.

Although the traffic in the area is not dense and some adaptations of the roads could be

implemented, automated transport demonstration would still require vehicles able to drive in

real traffic and accordingly to local driving rules.

Touristic activities in the area and the presence of many pedestrians also imply increased

security measures to avoid any risk of collision between vehicles and pedestrians.


The itinerary is located on public roads and an automated transport system would be subject

to all general driving rules. As there is no specific regulation for automated vehicles, the main

question that would have to be resolved is who is responsible in case of accident.


The number of inhabitants in the area surrounding the itinerary is very low and most people

present during working hours are either commuters or people coming to visit one of the

centers of activity.

Commuters targeted by the service are likely to be interested in trying a new solution to

shorten their journey. Commuters who are not concerned by the system should not be

impacted by the system.

People going to one of the centers of activity generally have more time and the use of

automated transport could be an additional interest of their trip and would ease their journey

between main activity points.


The itinerary only includes roads managed by the municipality of Laeken. However, given the

importance of activity centers in the area and particularly the exhibition centre, the

involvement of local authorities in the project would be crucial for a successful

implementation.


4.3 Saint Luc Clinics


This site is located at just 10 minutes from Brussels city centre in a relatively green and quiet

environment. Close by, we find the national airport and one of the biggest shopping centres

of the city (Woluwé Shopping Centre). The site is part Woluwé-Saint-Lambert municipality

and contains three major centres of activities: (1) the hospital "Saint-Luc", (2) high schools

and universities mainly in the field of health and (3) an important sport centre.

The universitary hospital "Saint-Luc" is associated with the Catholic University of Louvain. It

counts approximately one thousand beds and employs 5000 people. Every day, the number

of patients and visitors coming to the hospital is approximately 6500. Thanks to their highly

specialised teams and continuous investments in state of the art medical equipments, Saint

Luc hospital can treat the most complex pathologies.

High schools and universities are scattered over the whole site. Many schools in the field of

health are located close to the hospital. In the other parts of the site, the schools are more

diversified (economics, engineering, etc.). Each day, 20 000 students are present on the site.

The sports centre "La Woluwe" is located near the metro station “Kraainem” and proposes

more than 35 sports.

The site has a high parking capacity. The most important parking lots are public, located

North and used by patients and visitors. Parking lots located South are used by employees

who are accessing the hospital through the secondary entrance. Around 55% of the medical

staff commute by car and 28% by public transport. The rest walk or cycle.

The hospital put a lot of effort in ensuring a good mobility of its employees, visitors and

patients. For more than 10 years, the hospital has engaged an expert to improve the mobility

inside the site. His three main objectives are (i) solving parking problems, (ii) improving the

well-being of employees and (iii) contributing to the improvement of the environmental

quality. The hospital has implemented measures to encourage carpooling and supports the

travel by bike (financial incentives, showers, lockers, bikes parks, etc.). Visitors and patients

also receive a site plan, explaining how to access the hospital without a car. Among future

projects, shuttles could be implemented to connect directly the hospital to Brussels main train

stations.

The environment is a priority for the hospital. A working group composed of representatives

of management and unions work on different environmental problems: sorting and recycling,

green mobility, management of water and energy, noise, etc. In 2008, Saint-Luc hospital

obtained the label "Ecodynamic Company" from Brussels Environment. The same year,

photovoltaic panels were installed on the roof of the hospital. Each year, these panels

prevent the discharge of dozens of tons of CO2.


Figure 28: Saint Luc clinics site and main activity centres

Sports Center "Woluwe"

Commercial

space "Carnoy"

School of Public Health

High School "Léonard

De Vinci"

High School

"Parnasse Deux Alice"

EPHEC

Commercial School

Saint-Luc hospital

University: teaching

and research


4.3.1.1 Local public transport network

Access to the site by public transport is possible by metro lines and bus lines. Two metro

stations are located on the site. Alma Station, located South of the hospital, is mainly used by

students and by medical staff. Metros run between 5 o'clock in the morning and midnight.

From this station, there is no connection with bus lines. This forces users to walk over

several hundred meters on a steep pathway to join the hospital. In consequence the access

to the hospital for mobility impaired people is particularly difficult by this station.

“Kraainem” metro station is located approximately at a 15 minutes' walk from the hospital and

is equipped for mobility impaired people (lifts and ramps). This metro station is also

connected to several bus lines. The frequency of bus services is around 10 minutes' in the

peak hours and 15 minutes' in off-peak hours. After 6 o'clock in the evening, frequency

decreases to 20 minutes. Bus run between 6 o'clock in the morning and midnight. Bus lines

serve the South side of the site but only a small part of the North (main entrance of the

hospital and parking on the west side of the hospital). There is no direct bus line between

“Kraainem” the metro station and the main entrance of the hospital.


Figure 29: Public transport network in Saint Luc Clinics area

Metro station "Alma"

Bus stop

Metro line

Bus line

Metro station "Kraainem"



Access for mobility impaired people

Two metro stations can be used to access the site:

- (1) Alma station, located South of the hospital. This station does not offer any

connection with bus lines and, to reach the hospital, it is necessary to walk over

several hundred meters on a steep pathway. Therefore, it is particularly difficult

for mobility impaired people to access to the hospital by this station.

- (2) Kraainem station, located East of the hospital. This station is equipped for

mobility impaired people but is located at a 15 minutes' walk from the entrance

of the hospital. Moreover, there is no direct bus line between this metro station

and the main entrance of the hospital.

Accessibility to the hospital for mobility impaired people is therefore particularly difficult and

generally requires a car or the use of specific services.

Currently, some robotic electric vehicles are especially designed for people with reduced

mobility (for example, "Induct" manufacturer). The implementation of such a system could

therefore bring a real added value to the site by improving considerably the accessibility for

mobility impaired people. Automated vehicles could connect metro stations and car parks to

the hospital entrance.

Figure 30: Robotic electric vehicles specially designed for mobility impaired people ("Induct")

Internal mobility

Bus lines serve the South side of the site but only a small part of the North. Several parking

lots, schools and the sport centre are not well served by public transport. Automated transport

systems could complete the existing transport network and facilitate the connections between

the different sites. This would help various users: workers, students, patients and visitors.

Furthermore, this transport system with no driver allows a high flexibility of operation. Although

conventional public transports run only between specific hours (typically between 6 o‟clock in

the morning to midnight), Automated vehicles could serve the site day and night. This is

particularly interesting as medical activities do not stop at night.


Safety feeling on the access to the car parks

Although most planned surgeries are scheduled during the day, shift work is still required to

take care of all the patients staying overnight and to continue to treat emergencies. Therefore,

hospital staff, in particular nurses and doctors, are often required to come or to leave the

hospital during the night. Most of them use their own vehicles that they park in one of the car

parks. Although the site is relatively safe, night access to the car park can bring up a feeling of

insecurity.

As automated vehicles could run 24 hours a day, the system could facilitate the access to the

car parks during the night and reduce the feeling of insecurity of night workers.




Lower demand

Connexion with bus and metro stations Lower international visibility

Demand spread evenly during the day and the week

Demand spread evenly across the whole area

Social aspect: access for mobility impaired people

Un-congested roads

Enthusiastic stakeholders


Indicators to assess the suitability of the site and, later, to assess the success of automated

transport system implementation are presented in the following table. Indicators that are

relevant for all systems wherever they are implemented are highlighted in green. Other

indicators can be specific to one or several sites and their selection generally depends on site

specific objectives.

In the case of Saint Luc Clinics most specific indicators are related to user perception and

transport efficiency. Access time for mobility impaired users has also been specifically

selected as it is one of the main objectives of the automated system implementation in this

site.


Table 8: Proposed impact indicators for Saint Luc Clinics


Acceptance

User acceptance

Usefulness

Ease of use




Quality of service



Fear of attack

Transport patterns

Modal change


System modal share

System use



Vehicle occupancy

System performances



Interchange time






Environment


Energy efficiency

Climate change CO2


Financial impacts

Start up costs




Operating costs

Personnel

Vehicle maintenance




Economic impacts



Efficiency




Benefit/Cost ratio


4.3.2.1 Itinerary general description

As described previously, Saint-Luc site comprises different components including a hospital,

high schools and universities, student accommodations, a sport centre, several enterprises

and research centres related to medical activities. Each day, 20 000 students are present on

the site. The site has a high parking capacity and is mainly served by two metro stations (Alma

and Kraainem). A few bus stops are also present on the site.


Based on the site analysis, an itinerary that would significantly improve the mobility inside the

site could be identified. The itinerary starts from main entrance of the Clinics, follows “avenue

Hippocrate”, passes in front of the sport the sport centre and reaches Kraainem metro station

before going back to the hospital by exactly the same way. The itinerary is 2 km long and

includes 10 stops, 5 on each way: UCL(Saint-Luc Clinics and UCL), Dunette, Fac Nord, Fac

Sud, Mounier and Kraainem (metro station).

The itinerary was selected to enable the connection with existing public transport lines

(Kraainem, Mounier and Dunette stops). Some stops were also identified along the way to

offer an alternative solution to private vehicle drivers using Eastern parking lots (Fac Sud

station, near the entrance of the 201 places UCL parking lot, facing the Woluwe sport centre;

Fac Nord, UCL and Parking Esplanade stations, near the entrance of parking lots and near the

Clinics and University attractor poles).


Mounier

Kraainem

FacSud

FacNord

Dunette

St Luc

Clinics

Alma

Kraainem

Metro station

Bus stop

Automated transport :

Line

Stop

Figure 31 : Itinerary of the innovating transport system in the Saint-Luc area (Stratec)


Itinerary pictures:

Figure 32 : Description of the itinerary for the innovating transport system in the Saint-Luc Clinics area (Stratec)



Figure 33 : Street views of the itinerary in Saint-Luc Clinics area (Stratec)



The demand estimation for the public transport system has been carried out for the Saint-Luc

area. Considering the 6 stations intended to be created, two types of stops have been

identified to estimate the demand: one stop connected to the main metro line serving the site

(Kraainem) and the other stops connected to bus stops and/or parking lots (UCL, Dunette, Fac

Nord, Fac Sud and Mounier).

Kraainem station

The demand for this station was estimated based on the number of people accessing or

exiting Kraainem metro and bus station. Data was extracted from the regional public transport

model for year 2011.Furthermore, a part of people accessing and exiting Alma metro station

(which is ten times more used than Kraainem metro station) was taken into account, as current

public transport users of this station may potentially decide to use Kraainem metro station

instead, if a new transport system would be implemented.

Data extracted from the model also included the ratios of trip purposes (home to work, home

to school, home to others and not linked to home). Based on these trip purposes and the

distances between stops and activity centres, we estimated a global coefficient that represents

the proportion of the people accessing or exiting the public transport station who would use the

new system. Unlike what was found for the other potential sites, coefficients are in this case

relatively small. This is largely due to the presence of another metro station closer to most

activity centres. As explained previously, the main purpose of the system in this case is not to

improve general travelling time but to offer a service accessible to mobility impaired people. As

such, it was expected that the ratio of people interested would be relatively small.

Results are presented in the following table.

Saint-Luc Clinics, Dunette, Fac Nord, Fac Sud and Mounier stations

These five stations are connected to bus stops and/or to important parking lots. The demand

was estimated based on the number of people going on or getting off the buses at these stops

as well as the capacity of the parking lots.

Again, based on trip purposes ratios, the location of parking lots and of activity centres

coefficients representing the proportion of people that would use the new public transport

system have been calculated. Results are presented in the following tables.


Table 9: Demand estimation for the complete itinerary of Saint-Luc Clinics site

Public Transport Parking lots

Station

access to or exit from the

station (people/day)

Global demand

coefficient Demand

Parking lot capacity

Coefficient Demand Total

demand

Kraainem

Métro Kraainem 1234 2.76%

231 0 - 0 231 Métro Alma 13851 1.39%

Bus Kraainem 167 2.76%

Mounier 0 - 0 315 10% 32 32

Fac Sud 0 - 0 553 10% 55 55

Fac Nord 0 - 0 343 10% 34 34

Dunette 37 25.03% 9 210 10% 21 30

Saint Luc Clinics 561 0.11% 1 100 20% 20 21

TOTAL 241 162 403

The demand for the itinerary is estimated to 403 trips per day.














The following parameters concerning the number of vehicles and the vehicle.kilometers

travelled were extracted from the tables:


𝑎𝑛 = 1.1 . 10−3

𝑏𝑛 = 1.08

𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 1.8 . 10−1

𝑏𝑣𝑒𝑕 𝑘𝑚 = 131.8

𝑎𝑣 = 22.020

𝑏𝑣 = −0.0641

𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑥 /𝑘𝑚 = 2.94 . 10−2


These parameters were then introduced in Annex C formulas to obtain four main outputs.

Considering the daily demand 𝐃 = 𝟒𝟎𝟑 and the Itinerary length 𝐋 = 𝟐 𝐤𝐦 of the itinerary:


𝑳+ 𝒃𝒏 = 𝟐.𝟔𝟎

Total vehicle.kilometres run: 𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝑳 𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎.𝑫

𝑳+ 𝒃𝒗𝒆𝒉 𝒌𝒎 = 𝟑𝟑𝟔.𝟏𝟔


𝑳 𝒃𝒗

= 𝟏𝟓.𝟔𝟕 𝒌𝒎/𝒉


𝒏+ 𝒃𝒑𝒂𝒙/𝒌𝒎 = 𝟗.𝟗𝟐 𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔/𝒌𝒎

Results reveal that 3 automatic vehicles are required to absorb fully the demand. With 3

vehicles, the total of vehicle.kilometres travelled would be 336, the average commercial

speed would be 15.7 km/h and the occupancy rate would be close to 10 passengers/km.

Finally, the average waiting time was determined based on table 6 of the City study design,




This average time is included between 55 and 90 seconds.



Although a high number of students and employees go everyday to Saint-Luc Clinics site,

the demand for the automated system is relatively limited (about400 users a day). These

results were expected as for this site, the purpose of the new system is not to target the

highest number of potential users but to offer a solution for mobility impaired people.

Therefore, for most people, access to the site is more interesting by Alma metro station even

if an automated transport system is implemented. However, for mobility impaired people, the

system would offer a very interesting alternative.

The other main advantage of the site is that streets are wide and the traffic is sparse so that

the risks of conflicts between the automated system and road traffic are limited.



The itinerary is totally integrated in local traffic and includes several crossroads. Although

these roads do not support an important traffic, some of them constitute the main access to

the hospital and cannot be closed to the traffic. Furthermore, the width of certain parts of the

itinerary is limited and would not allow the creation of a dedicated lane.

A successful implementation of automated transport system on these itineraries would

therefore require the use of vehicles able to drive autonomously in real traffic and according

to local driving rules.


The itinerary is located on public roads and an automated transport system would be subject

to all general driving rules. As there is no specific regulation for automated vehicles, the

main question that would have to be resolved is who is responsible in case of accident.


Although people going to or leaving the hospital may not be really prompt to testing

innovative ways of travelling, there is a clear need of improvements of the local

transportation system, especially for mobility impaired people.

As the new system would significantly improve the access to the hospital, it is therefore likely

to interest greatly a part of the people coming to or leaving the hospital.



The itinerary runs trough roads managed by the municipality of Woluwe-Saint-Lambert and

land owned and managed by the University. Furthermore, the itinerary is clearly linked to the

activities of the clinics.

Therefore, a successful implementation would require the involvement and the support of

three entities: the municipality of Woluwe-Saint-Lambert, the University and the Hospital.


5. Intra city site selection

The multi-criteria grid (Table 10) uses the criteria that we selected for the evaluation of

different sites. For each criterion, a weighting coefficient was chosen and a value of 1 to 5

was given. The exercise can highlight the strengths and weaknesses of different sites and

aids decision-making for the selection.

Table 10: Multi-criteria grid for intra city site selection

Score

Evaluation category

Impacts Indicators Coefficient (1 to 5)

Max score

Saint Luc Clinics

European district

Heysel

Acceptance

User acceptance

Usefulness 5 25 25 15 15

Ease of use 3 15 15 6 12


3 15 9 12 12

Willingness to pay

User willingness 2 10 6 10 6

Authorities willingness 5 25 20 20 10

Quality of service

Comfort Perceived comfort 3 15 9 12 9

Perception of safety and

security

Perception of safety 2 10 8 8 8

Fear of attack 2 10 8 8 8

Transport patterns

Modal change

Induced mode changes in the other

segments of the journey

3 15 6 9 6

System modal share / / / / /

System use


3 15 9 15 12

Total number of trips 3 15 9 15 12

Vehicle occupancy 3 15 9 15 12

System performances


2 10 8 8 8

Average waiting time 4 20 20 16 16

Interchange time 4 20 20 16 16

System capacity Effective system

capacity 3 15 12 12 12

Social impacts

Spatial accessibility

Change in range of key activities within time

thresholds / / / / /

Distribution of accessibility changes

by social groups 3 15 15 6 12


Service accessibility

Access times for mobility impaired users

5 25 25 10 20

Environment

Energy Daily consumption / / / / /

Energy efficiency / / / / /

Climate change CO2 3 15 6 12 6

Land take Change in road space

availability to other users

3 15 3 12 6

Financial impacts

Start up costs


3 15 12 6 15

Vehicle acquisition/constructio

n / / / / /


/ / / / /

Operating costs

Personnel / / / / /

Vehicle maintenance / / / / /


3 15 12 9 12


/ / / / /

Revenues Operating revenues 2 10 4 8 4

Economic impacts

Temporary job provided by

installation and demonstration


2 10 4 6 4

Efficiency


/ / / / /


5 / / / /

Internal Rate of Return 5 / / / /

Benefit/Cost ratio 5 / / / /

370 274 266 253

The 23 indicators underlined in green are those to be considered as core indicators, thus mandatory to be collected and

measured for the evaluation.

Results of multi-criteria analysis revealed that all 3 sites presented many advantages for

automated transport system implementation. However Saint Luc Clinics site stood out as the

most interesting opportunity and the site was therefore selected for further investigation.


6. Initial evaluation

Based on the pre-designed system outputs, this step provides the expected effects of Saint-

Luc Clinics site project. Selected indicators were evaluated with analysis/derivation

techniques to verify whether the new system would provide improvements to the current

situation. Thresholds for success were also defined.

Ev

alu

ati

on

ca

teg

ory

Imp

ac

ts

Indicators Reference

case Success threshold

Su

cc

ess

?

Comments

Accep

tance Use

r accep

tance


/

≥ 20% of the people coming to the site interested by the

system. ≥ 50% of mobility impaired person

coming to the site interested in the

system

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

To judge the acceptance of system, results of the surveys will show the proportion of people interested by the service. Results will also indicate the proportion of mobility impaired people that would use this service to come to the hospital (the automated bus at the Kraainem subway station is a very interesting alternative for those people who can‟t stop at Alma and have to take a car/cab to reach Saint Luc Clinics).

Will

ing

ne

ss t

o p

ay

User willingness

/

Half the people interested in the

service agree to pay for a round-trip

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

Results of the surveys will indicate the proportion of people having the willingness to pay for an extra fare (2€ for a round-trip) for travelling with the automated bus if the travel times and waiting times are the same as the conventional bus and with waiting times lower for the automated bus (-5 minutes).

Qu

alit

y o

f se

rvic

e

Com

fort

Perceived comfort

/

Improved perceived comfort (compared to a conventional

bus)

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

Results of the surveys allowed to estimate the relative preferences of users for conventional road public transport and for the bus automated. A constant value named ASC (Alternative Specific Constant) of the automated bus is indicative of the importance attached by users to the differences in unobserved attributes (like perceived comfort) between an automated bus and a conventional minibus.


Tra

nsp

ort

pa

tte

rns

Mo

dal ch

ang

e

System modal share

/

Shift from cars to automated bus

system ≥5% of the people coming to the

site by car

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

Brussels modal choice model will enable to evaluate the modal shift from the car to the automated bus. Average fuel consumption in the Brussels Capital Region, average distance from/to the Saint-Luc Clinics area by car and use of conversion tables (1 litre fuel = 10 kWh*) will allow to estimate the total fuel consumption in kWh and the fuel consumption per passenger.km in kWh/passenger.km.

Syste

m u

se

Total passenger.

km travelled

Brussels public

transport model applied

to conventional

bus

≥ 520 passengers.km

between 7-9 am. Based on the

comparison with the current situationof

the 2 bus lines serving Saint Luc

Clinics area for the period 7-9 am

(average of around 3400 passengers.km

considering an average length of 13

km)

No

The passenger.kilometers are estimated to 806 (round-trip of 2 km) according to the daily demand. For the period 7-9 am, we calculate 78 passengers.km.

Total number of

trips

Brussels public


to conventional

bus

≥ 230 trips for 7-9 am. Based on the

comparison with the current situation of

the 2 bus lines serving Saint Luc

Clinics area for the period 7-9 am

(demand of around 1500 passengers

considering an average length of 13

km)

No

For the period 7-9 am, the demand is estimated to 40 trips

(based on the system pre-design, the daily demand was estimated to 403 passengers based on a trip with stops at 6 stations).

Vehicle occupancy

Brussels public


to conventional

bus

Threshold ≥ 57%. Based on the average bus occupancy in

Brussels Capital Region for the period

7-9 am Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

The vehicle occupancy will depend on the time slots and on peak periods in the time slots. The supply dimensioning was calculated in the aim of taking into account the demand fluctuations (maximum theoretical bus occupancy of 85%) and a maximum waiting

time of 90 seconds.


Syste

m p

erf

orm

ances

Average Waiting

time

Brussels public


to conventional

bus

Threshold ≤ 72 seconds. Based on the average waiting

time of 72 seconds in the Brussels Capital Region for the period

7-9 am

Ye

s

Average waiting time is included between 55 and 90 seconds for the automated bus.

Syste

m c

ap

acity

Effective system capacity

Brussels public


to conventional

bus

Threshold ≤85% of theoretical capacity

(based on manufacturers requirements)

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

The supply was dimensioned to respect a maximum theoretical bus occupancy of 85% in the

aim to take into account the demand fluctuations.

So

cia

l im

pacts

Sp

atial accessib

ility

Change in range of

key activities

within time thresholds

Brussels public


to conventional

bus

Spatial accessibility improved by 50%

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

By comparing walking access time and access time using the automated bus.

En

vir

on

men

t

En

erg

y

Daily consumpti

on

Gain of electric

transport compared to

fossil fuel transport

Gain of 5% compared to fossil

fuel transport

Ye

s

From the system pre-design, the vehicles will travel 336 kilometers every day. We can calculate that the daily consumption is around 67 kWh (according to

Induct manufacturer specifications, one vehicle consumes around 16 kWh (nominal) for an autonomy of around 80 kilometres (with a slight slope)).

Energy efficiency

Gain of electric

transport compared to

fossil fuel transport

Gain of 5% compared to fossil

fuel transport.

Ye

s The energy used for

passenger.km is estimated to 0.02 kWh per passenger.km.


La

nd

ta

ke Change in

road space availability

to other users

/ Gain of road space

Ex-a

nte

eva

lua

tion

The modal shift from the car to the automated bus would allow to

estimate gains of space. Inversely, losses of space could

be noticed by (i) suppressing parking lots or convertible spaces

to widen the roadway and to remove possible conflict point

between cars and automated bus and by (ii) segregated lanes depriving road space. The

hypothetical gain of space to users could be used, for

example, for creating facilities for walking or cycling.

Fin

ancia

l im

pacts

Sta

rt u

p c

osts

Track construction and civil

works

/ / /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between 250

000 and 750 000 Euros. This point will be detailed in

deliverable D7.2


n

/ / / Data depending on

manufacturers

Control systems

and apparatus

/ / / Data depending on

manufacturers

Op

era

ting

co

sts

Personnel / / /

Depending on legal restrictions. Working hours have been

evaluated between 200 000 and 400 000 Euros. This point will

be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Vehicle maintenan

ce / / /

We estimate that 2 hours are necessary for the maintenance of vehicles. The maintenance costs are evaluated between 5 000 and 10 000 Euros. This point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Track and civil

infrastructures

maintenance

/ / /



deliverable D7.2

Control system

maintenance

/ / /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between 5 000 and 20 000 Euros. This

point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Reve

nue

s

Operating revenues

/ / /



deliverable D7.2


TO

TA

L

Total < 1 000 000

A p

rio

ri y

es


000 and 1000 000 (excluding vehicle acquisition/construction

and control systems and apparatus).This point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Eco

nom

ic im

pacts

Te

mpo

rary

jo

b p

rovid

ed

by

insta

llation

and

de

mon

str

ation

Jobs provided at

the demonstrat

ion site

/ / /

Preliminary investigations evaluated full time 8 employees for the implementation (maintenance and operation)

Eff

icie

ncy

Financial Net

Present Value

/ / / This point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Socio-economic

Net Present Value




Benefit/Cost ratio


* "People who came in the site by car and would take the service" does not indicate whether the automated bus is used for the

total travel (Origin-Destination) or just for a short distance on the site (for example to access to the parking lots).

** Brussels Capital Region transport model "IRIS2"

*** http://www.renovationdurable.eu/Notions-Valeurs-de-conversion.html

The initial evaluation underlined some positive effects of the project according to our

success thresholds (including waiting time lower than 90s., energy savings, etc.) but several

indicators require the results of the supply dimensioning and of the surveys to be estimated

(including modal shift, passengers-kilometers, vehicle occupancy, etc.). These indicators will

be estimated in the ex-ante evaluation.

Several indicators also indicated relatively small positive effects and did not reach

thresholds. The ex-ante evaluation will confirm or infirm these results.


7. System dimensioning

7.1 Demand analysis

7.1.1 Modeling tools

To estimate the demand for the ARTS (Automated Road Transport System), it is first

necessary to determine the types of passengers interested in travelling with this system.

Indeed, the interest of potential users can be multiple (decrease of the perceived journey

times, increase of safety, carbon footprint reduction, facilities for mobility impaired people,

etc.). To determine the potential users, Brussels "the 4-step model" transport model was

used. In the first step of the classical model, the Trip Generation is the production and

attraction (origin and destination traffic) of each zone based on socio-demographic data (for

example, number of inhabitants and jobs). These production and attraction values define the

total demand matrix. In the second step, the Trip Distribution is determined by means of

relevant skim data (for example, journey times, fares, etc.). In the step of Modal Choice, the

total demand matrix is distributed into the different traffic modes (for example, Private and

Public Transport) on the basis of mode-specific skims (journey times and journey distances

by mode, etc.). The final step is the Assignment of the resulting mode-dependent demand

matrices on the supply network in order to obtain link volumes and new skims. This skim

data can again be used as input for trip distribution or mode choice of a new demand

calculation. This allows to iterate the calculations until a convergence criterion concerning

link volumes or matrix values.

The "4-step model" is used to calculate the demand and the supply dimensioning. We use

Visum software produced by PTV. Visum is a software system that allows the modeling of all

private and public transport types in one single integrated model. Using Visum, most basic

data provided by transport information and planning systems can be managed consistently

and maintained with the network editor. Unlike simple GIS systems, Visum allows complex

relationships within single or several transport systems to be retained, enabling to create a

suitable transport model. STRATEC has an expertise of thirty years in the modeling of

transport in Brussels. The company has been selected to upgrade the 4-step model of the

Brussels Capital Region. All progress will be used to calculate the effects of the ARTS

project on the transport demand and networks.

The Trip Generation and Trip Distribution steps will not be described in this deliverable

because their results are not dependent on the transport modes. These steps are derived

from the Brussels demand model.


7.1.2 Modal Choice in Brussels model

7.1.2.1 Introduction

The modal choice model implemented in VISUM distributes the total demand between

different modes and different user's profiles, through the utility functions Uij.

The variables involved inutility functions are variables characterizing the supply of each

transport mode (for example for the Public Transport (PT): waiting time, transfer time, in-

vehicle time, travel cost, etc. and for personal vehicles: in-vehicle time, search time of a

parking lot, travel cost, etc. Moreover, the choice of variables depends on user's profiles.

An example of a utility function:

Usij(m) = p1sm * Tij(m) + p2sm * Zij(m) + p3sm * Cij(m) + p4sm

With:

- i and j: index areas O and D

- m: index mode m

- s: index of the demand's layer

- p1smto p4sm: parameters of the utility function (p4sm is the modal constant)

- Tij Zij Cij(m): variables of the utility function

The values of the utility function parameters depend on the mode and user's profiles

considered. These parameters values are estimated thanks to stated preference surveys.

For this project, we will use the traditional multinomial logit form:

Formula 1 - Multinomial logit form

Where Tij denotes the total number of travels of the demand's layer

in the relation ij

Tijm is the number of travels made with mode m

c is a procedure parameter

Below, the multinomial logit structure for this project:


7.1.2.2 Stated preference surveys

First, results of stated preference surveys (SP) are used to refine the modal choice model

calibrated on the Brussels Capital Region scale (modeled in Saturn) by the knowledge of the

relative preferences of users for conventional road public transport and for the Automated

Road Transport System (ARTS).

Then, results are used to understand local attitudes towards innovation. This insight will be

the primary input for the design of a communication and marketing strategy specific for the

city.

The stated preference surveys results were produced by CTL (Research Centre for

Transport and Logistics, University of Rome La Sapienza) for the estimation of econometric

models. Econometric models provide comparisons across-European cities and across

application cases (e.g. ARTS as feeder system, ARTS as system serving specific

locations/facilities such as campuses and technology parks) of:

The statistical significance of the factors influencing choices.

The weights of the factors.

The willingness to pay for an extra fare to use the ARTS, i.e. a fare which allows a

return trip on only the ARTS and is independent of the fare system in place for the

public transport system in the city.

Factors that were considered include characteristics of the service (such as waiting time, in-

vehicle time, automated driving), socio-economic characteristics of the user (age, gender,

income, education, occupation, car ownership, public transport monthly ticket),

characteristics of the trip.

The subsequent questions of the interview were related to public transport services

proposed locally. Respondents were asked in reference to the city-specific case. About this,

we insisted on the fact that the ARTS would be set up in the Saint-Luc area particularly for

mobility impaired people to reach easily the hospital from the metro station (equipped with

lifts and ramps for mobility impaired people) or from the parking lots.

SP surveys included analysis of the waiting time, the riding time and the extra-fare, as well

as the Alternative Specific Constant (ASC) of the ARTS (the ASC of minibus is set to zero

because normalization is needed). Results related to the ASC of the ARTS are indicative of

the importance attached by users to the differences in unobserved attributes between ARTS


and a conventional minibus. Therefore, results for the ASC of the ARTS can be used in the

modal split model, as an example, to fine tune the ASC of ARTS with respect to the ASC of

a conventional bus (having assumed that a bus alternative is present in the model

specification). Three possibilities are foreseen:

There is a significant difference between the ASC of ARTS and the minibus in favour

of ARTS; the modal split model may take into account an ASC of ARTS higher than

the ASC of the bus alternative.


of ARTS; the modal split model may take into account an ASC of ARTS higher than



of minibus; the modal split model may take into account an ASC of ARTS lower than


The ASC of ARTS is not significantly different from 0; the modal split model may take

into account the same ASC for bus and ARTS.

The SP design

Respondents of the SP survey have been faced with the choice between a minibus and the

ARTS for the specific public transport service that has been selected as candidate case for

the demonstration.

The two transport alternatives have been described in the questionnaire as follows:

Minibus: “this is the conventional bus of small size WITH DRIVER, the capacity is

about 20 passengers, passengers can sit or stand inside”.

ARTS: “this is a fully automated vehicle WITHOUT DRIVER, the capacity is about 20

passengers, passengers can sit or stand inside”.

The attributes and corresponding levels of the SP design are described below.

The number of combinations in the full factorial design (8 combinations) has been reduced to

4 combinations using a within-alternative orthogonal design technique. Therefore, each

respondent has expressed her/his choices between ARTS and minibus in 4 scenarios. For

fare, effects coding (-1/1) has been used instead of binary coding (0/1) to eliminate

confusion with the ASC.


The sample

The sample was constituted by users of the Saint-Luc Hospital who accepted to respond to

the survey and who came by car, by public transport, by bike or walking. The interviews

were face-to-face, based on paper and pencil, and took place at North and South entrances

of Saint-Luc Hospital. They were made on Friday 31 May 2013, Tuesday 18 June 2013,

Wednesday 19 June 2013 and finally on Thursday 20 June 2013. In total, 261

questionnaires were collected. The location of the interviews is shown below.

Figure 34 - Location of the interviews in Saint-Luc Clinics

Survey Results

The average age of the respondents is 44 years. Sixty percent of them are women and forty

percent are men. Most of them are employee, student or retired and have a degree in

secondary school or university. Nineteen percent of the respondents are experiencing

difficulties to walk more than 1km.


Figure 35 - Proportion of interviewed having a car

Figure 36 - Proportion of interviewed having a public transport subscription

Figure 37 - Proportion of people having difficulties to walk more than 1km

Figure 38 - Occupation


Figure 39 - Incomes

Figure 40 - Type of transport

Figure 41–Choice of transport mode

Around 60% of interviewed people owned a public transport subscription and 33% of the

interviewed own a car and a public transport subscription. By analyzing theErreur ! Source

du renvoi introuvable. and Erreur ! Source du renvoi introuvable., it can be noticed that

60% of Saint Luc Clinics users come by public transport, 39% by car and finally 1% walking

or cycling.

More than 70% are interested in the service and around 60% would have taken it to come to

the site.

0

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What kind of transport did you use to come here today ?


Figure 42 - Are you interested by the service?

Figure 43 - If the automated transport system existed, would you have taken it to come here

today?

More than 80% of mobility impaired person would use this service to come to the hospital.

Figure 44 - Proportion of mobility impaired person who would take the automated bus

By analyzing Figure 45, we can notice that the type of transportation used currently to come

to Saint Luc Clinics does not really affect the choice to use the automated bus. The car

users are slightly more interested than public transport users.

Figure 45 - Percentage of people would have taken the service to come to the UCL by the type of transportation they came with

Results of the survey show that if the service existed, the most popular stations would be

Kraainem and Saint-Luc Clinics (UCL). The accessibility of Saint-Luc Clinics by public

transport through Kraainem being difficult, the automated bus would add an alternative to the

current situation. Indeed, presently most people stop at “Alma” metro station (Figure 47) to


reach the hospital. This itinerary requires a 7 minute walk and the path is not accessible for

mobility impaired persons. The important part of mobility impaired person (20%) explain that

the automated bus at the Kraainem subway station would be a very interesting alternative for

those people who can‟t stop at Alma and have to take a car/cab to reach the Saint-Luc

Clinics. As said previously, 80% of the mobility impaired person surveyed would use the new

service.

Figure 46- If the service existed, on which bus stop would you board?

Figure 47- Origin subway station

Figures below show the percentages of choice (minibus vs ARTS) considering responses of

all participants to all scenarios and responses to the open question about the motivations for

the preference for ARTS.

Figure 48- Percentages of choice (Minibus vs ARTS) and motivations for the preference for ARTS

Counting of people entering or leaving the hospital

In order to evaluate the number of people coming to the hospital, we counted during two

days (on 18th and 19th of June 2013) people coming in or coming out one of the two

entrances of the hospital (north and south). That information is required to evaluate the

demand estimation for the service according to the time slot. An average of 17 500 people

coming in or coming out were counted per day which means that around 8 750 people come

to the hospital by these entrances every day.


Figure 49 - Outputs/Inputs sorted by entrance

Here is the distribution of Outputs and Inputs by time slot. The curve has a bell shape. We

can notice the peak period is between 9 am and 6 pm. We can also easily notice that the

North entrance is more used that the South one: approximately 50% more. In fact, the

visitors and patients majority come by cars or by bus at the north entrance. By the South

entrance, the visitors, patients and clinic workers majority come from Alma and a part of the

clinic workers from the car park, that‟s why there are less outputs and inputs. To conclude,

due to the important frequentation of the hospital there is an important demand for public

transport between 6 am and 10pm.

Figure 50 - Curve of average input/output

In accordance to CityMobil2 methodology for the city study design and evaluation of the

project, the survey results were then used in the design and system dimensioning of the

automated system: particularly the system demand analysis and the dimensioning of the

supply needed to serve this demand.

South Entrance

North Entrance


In a first stage, the potential demand for the new system was evaluated with the use of

macro models traditionally used in transport planning studies and modeling results were

calibrated with counting results.

In a second stage, the potential demand for the new system was evaluated with a discrete

choice model calibrated with survey results.

In a final stage, based also on the results of the discrete choice models (second stage),

models will be used to provide estimates of the impacts that the new system, together with

additional accompanying policy measures, may have at macro level.

At the end, the demand analysis will provide (i) the daily demand expected for the new

system, (ii) corresponding modal share and (iii) the proportion of the demand shifted from

other modes.

7.1.2.3 Modal choice model

Current context

Number of trips

Survey results revealed that 60% of the Saint-Luc Clinics users came by public transport,

39% by car and finally 1% walking or cycling. The counting of people coming in or coming

out of Saint-Luc Clinics showed that on average 1737 trips were observed at the hospital

entrances between 12am and 1pm in 2013, which constitutes the peak hour in the area.

Based on these observations, we estimated public transport trips to access Saint-Luc Clinics

between 12 am and 1 pm to 1042.

Access times and generalized times to the hospital

To reach Saint-Luc Clinics by public transport, there are two main possibilities:

- Metro Alma station, located South of the hospital. This station does not offer

any connection with bus lines and, to reach the hospital, it is necessary to

walk over several hundred meters on a pathway not suitable for mobility

impaired people.

- Metro Kraainem station, located East of the hospital. This station is equipped

for mobility impaired people but is located at a 15 minute walk from the

entrance of the hospital. Moreover, there is no direct bus line between this

metro station and the main entrance of the hospital.

Currently, accessibility to the hospital for mobility impaired people is thus particularly difficult

and generally requires a car or the use of specific services. The automated system would

allow a direct access to the site by public transport.


The two paths are illustrated below:

Reaching the Saint-Luc Clinics with no transport mode from the metro station Alma.

Reaching the Saint-Luc Clinics by Kraainem with the automated bus.

Figure 51 - Possible ways to reach the Saint-Luc Clinics

Travel time design: On foot

There is a distance of 450mbetweenthe hospital and the metro station Alma. It is assumed

that an average people‟s walking speed is 4km/h.The travel time by foot (Av) is 405

seconds.

𝐴𝑣 =450

1.11= 405 𝑠

For a mobility impaired person, it is particularly difficult to access to the hospital because the

path is hilly. The access speed for these profiles is estimated at 1 km/h. As seen previously,

there is 19% of mobility impaired persons who come to the Saint-Luc Clinics every day.

Figure 52 - Proportion of people having difficulties to walk more than 1km

Alma Kraainem

Saint-Luc

Clinics

Subway


Then travel time for mobility impaired person (Mi) is 1620 seconds.

𝑀𝑖 =450

0.277= 1620 𝑠

So, we can calculate the average time like that:

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 0.19 × 1620 + 0.81 × 405 = 636 𝑠

Our Brussels transport model applies a penalty (x 1.95) for the walking trips. Thus, the

generalized time in the model is:

𝐴𝑙𝑚𝑎 𝑀𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑜 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 − 𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑜𝑡 = 1.95 × 636 = 1240 𝑠

Travel time design: Metro + Automated Bus

The second possibility to access to the hospital is to combine existing public transport

modes with automated bus. Kraainem metro station is accessible by metro (same metro line

than Alma). There are also bus lines which deserve Kraainem station. Brussels transport

model can split the trips between these 2 alternatives.

First part of the trip:Metro between Alma and Kraainem metro stations

Travel time specified by the STIB (Society of Public Transport in Brussels) was used:

𝐴𝑙𝑚𝑎 − 𝐾𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑚 = 74 𝑠

Second part of the displacement: Walking time between metro station platform and the automated bus

stop

There is one floor to exit from the Kraainem metro platform. The travel time on foot is

estimated to 60 seconds (calculated on site).

This station is equipped to facilitate the move of mobility impaired people (lifts, facilities...).

The time for mobility impaired person to access to the exit is estimated at 90 seconds.

So, we can calculate the average time like that:

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 0.19 × 90 + 0.81 × 60 = 66 𝑠

Brussels transport model applies a penalty (x 1.95) for the walking trips.

𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑕𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑡 = 1.95 × 66 = 129 𝑠

Third part of the trip: Automated bus

To calculate the travel time, we use the following characteristics8:

8Recommendation of manufacturers: for a people transportation use on shared lanes, 20 km/h will be applied (configurable –

depending on city‟s operating requirements). The deceleration and acceleration are fixed by operator's standard values to preserve the passengers comfort.


Acceleration 𝑎 = 1.1 𝑚/𝑠2 ; Deceleration 𝑑 = 1.3 𝑚/𝑠2 ; Maximal Speed 𝑀𝑠 = 20 𝑘𝑚/𝑕 ;

Average Waiting Time 𝐴𝑊𝑇 = 17 𝑠

The average commercial speed and the linked travel time (for one direction) was estimated

to:

Average Commercial Speed 𝐴𝑠 = 13 𝑘𝑚/𝑕

Travel time 𝑇𝑡 𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑢𝑠 = 314 𝑠9

Brussels model applies a penalty (x 1.95) for the walking trips and for public transport

connections (572 s). Moreover, the stated preference surveys results (from CTL model) give

us an alternative specific constant of automated bus equal to - 83 s (this value is used to

refine the modal choice model calibrated at Brussels Capital Region scale).

𝐾𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑚 − 𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑦 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 1.95 × 66 + 572 + 314 − 83 = 931 𝑠

Thus, the generalized time in the model is:

𝐴𝑙𝑚𝑎 − 𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑦 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 = 𝑆𝑢𝑏𝑤𝑎𝑦 + 𝐴𝑢𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑠 = 74 + 931 = 1005 𝑠

Figure 53 - Generalized times to the hospital considered in the Brussels model

9For the supply dimensioning, the trip is based on a scenario with two stations: Kraainem and UCL. Moreover, the manufacturer

"Robosoft" allows a maximal speed of 30 km/h (this manufacturer is the most adapted for the demonstrations). It implies that

the travel time is shorter than for the modal choice step and is estimated to 151 s for one direction.

Alma Kraainem

Saint-Luc

Clinics

BRUSSELS MODEL : access times to the Saint-Luc Clinics

Subway Subway

and Bus

74s


Alternative Specific Constant (ASC)

CTL (Research Centre for Transport and Logistics, University of Rome La Sapienza) used a

multinomial logit model with the following specifications of utilities:

where WT is the waiting time, RT is the riding time, FA is the attribute which relates to the

payment of the fare for ARTS (as other public transport, or an extra fare), β1,β2 and β3 are

the coefficients (marginal utilities), ASC is the alternative specific constant of ARTS.

Constant marginal utilities across the two alternatives have been used in this basic

calibration.

The results are obtained with the software NLOGIT by Econometric Software Inc. The

coefficients of waiting time, riding time and fare have the right sign and are statistically

significant at 95% confidence level. The ASC turns out to be negative with statistical

significance at 90% confidence level.

From the calculated coefficients, we can obtain the value of time (VOT) of the ARTS ASC by

dividing the ARTS coefficient by the RT coefficient:

ondsASCVOT ARTS sec83198917.0

275315.0

This value is used to refine the modal choice model at Brussels Capital Region scale.

Modal choice results with automated transport system

We consider that the demand variations between 2013 and the vehicles deployment (2014 or

2015) are negligible.

Brussels modal choice model allowed evaluating users' choices in case of automated

transport implementation. Results showed a modal shift of 55 passengers from personal

vehicles to public transport modes during the time period 12 am-1 pm (peak hour in Saint-

Luc Clinics area). Therefore future public transport demand can be estimated to 1097. This

constitutes an increase of 5% of the public transport demand in the hospital area.


7.1.3 Assignment

The assignment procedures search some routes to travel between studied areas, and

distribute the total demand on each chosen route. A distribution model (Kirchhoff law)

determines the demand proportion which is assigned on each route j. This portion depends

on the impedance (or generalized time TGi) of a route. In any case, the percentage P of

route i in the time interval a is determined by this formula:

𝑃𝑖𝑎 =

𝑇𝐺𝑖𝑎−𝛽

𝑇𝐺𝑖𝑎−𝛽𝑛

𝑗=1

7.1.3.1 Assignment results with automated transport implemented

First, the future demand was applied in Brussels model with the distribution law of Kirchhoff

(based on generalized times) to estimate the number of public transport users who would

take the automated bus round-trip between 12 am-1 pm (Figure 54). This number was

evaluated to 899. Besides 198 people would still walk between Alma and the hospital.

So, the distribution results showed that 18% of the trips are on foot between the

hospital and Alma metro station and 82% by automated bus between the hospital and

Kraainem metro station.

Figure 54 - Distribution law of Kirchhoff applied to Saint-Luc Clinics area

Alma Kraainem

Saint-Luc

Clinics

BRUSSELS MODEL with Kirchhoff law between 12 am and 1 pm

Subway Subway

and Bus


This shift from cars to public transports implied a decrease of 47 PCU10 between 12 am and

1 pm.

7.2 Supply dimensioning

Robosoft vehicle capacity is estimated to 11 passengers, taking into account the significant

proportion of mobility impaired persons (capacity of 11 passengers with a wheelchair)

among the normal passengers (capacity of 12 passengers with no wheelchair).

The peak hour demand (899 passengers), the vehicle characteristics (Vmax of 30km/h,

capacity of 11 passengers) and the trips characteristics (301s11 for a round-trip, dwell time

included) allowed calculating that 82 services would be necessary during the peak hour to

deserve the demand. The commercial speed is estimated to 25 km/h.

8 vehicles would be necessary to assimilate the peak demand of 899 passengers and the

frequency would be 45 seconds.

Therefore expected peak hour demand exceeds the capacity of the 5 vehicles

available for the demonstration (one reserve vehicle).

Survey results showed that there is a significant demand for public transport between 6 am

and 10 pm. Counting and modeling results estimated daily demand to 9134 passengers for

the automated bus service between 6 am and 10 pm.

Vehicle occupancy will depend on the demand fluctuations (Figure 56) to insure a maximum

waiting time of 90 seconds (Figure 57). Eight vehicles would be necessary for the most

loaded period (10 am-6 pm) and 4 vehicles in the off-peak hours (6-10 pm).

10

Passenger Car Unit. 11

For the supply dimensioning, the trip is based on a scenario with two stations: Kraainem and UCL. Moreover, the manufacturer "Robosoft" allows a maximal speed of 30 km/h (this manufacturer is the most adapted for the demonstrations). It implies that the travel time is shorter than for the modal choice step and is estimated to 151 s for one direction.


Figure 55 - Number of vehicles during the daily service

Figure 56 - Vehicle occupancy during the daily service

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Figure 57 - Average waiting times during the daily service

7.3 Urban integration

7.3.1 Safety behaviour

The City of Brussels and the private actors involved in the project decided to position

themselves to ensure a maximum of security. This involves letting automated vehicles drive

on segregated lanes as much as possible. However, automated vehicles cannot remain

indefinitely on segregated sites, especially where the available space is limited and where

roads cannot be closed to traditional vehicles. Thus, in areas where the two modes have to

coexist on the same lane, adequate measures should be taken in order to ensure the

maximum level of safety.

On the maps below, the following colour code is used:

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7.3.2 Vehicle characteristics

Induct and Robosoft sets of vehicles have different characteristics in terms of size, turning

radius, direction and accommodation. The vehicles are supposed to be moving at 15 km/h

and the stops will be done on the road and not on the side of it.

Induct Robosoft

Length 357 [cm] 500 [cm]

Width 210 [cm] 149 [cm]

Turning radius 4 [m] 5.35 [m]

Bi-directionality yes no

Mobility impaired persons not adapted adapted

In the case of the Saint-Luc Clinics site, two mains aspects have to be taken into account:

First, it‟s a hospital site, which involves the presence of mobility impaired persons.

The semi-sitting position required in Induct vehicles is not suitable for the audience

targeted by the demonstration. The seating of Robosoft vehicles seems thus more

appropriate, even if adaptations for wheelchairs should be implemented in case of a

demonstration process.

Then, the road is sometimes pretty narrow, and the much smaller width of the

Robosoft vehicles is an asset.

Thus, the integration plans presented below were prepared on the basis of Robosoft vehicle

since it seems to be much more coherent.

7.3.3 Stations

The two main stations of the chosen itinerary would be located on the route‟s extremities:

Kraainem metro station and University Clinic entrance, and would first work on a frequency

system. The design of the stations is based on Robosoft vehicle width and length (the design

and size of the stations depend on the chosen vehicle) so that they could host two vehicles

at the same time. Thus, the stations dimensions would be:

- Waiting platform: 2m (width) x 10m (length)


- Vehicle stopping area : 1.5 (width) x 10m (length)

The system dimensioning was calculated based on those two stations only, but two other

stations could be used with an on-request system to offer people the choice to use the

vehicle from/to the parking spaces or the sport centre. Those two stations would then be

developed to host only one automated vehicle, so that:


- Vehicle stopping space : 1.5m (width) x 5m (length)

The two optional on-request stations were located on the map as an indicative example but

would ask to redo the dimensioning system.

Furthermore, each station consists of:

- A 2 meters wide by 0.42 meters high platform (from the road pavement and not from

the sidewalk) with a 7 % ramp in order to allow an easy access to mobility impaired

persons. This implies an enhancement from the sidewalk of about 0.25 meters and

thus an access ramp length of approximately 3.5 meters on each side of the platform.

The total length of the platform is thus of 12 to 17 meters depending on the station;

- A totem indicating the location of the station;

- An information board to communicate on the route and on the frequency of the

shuttles.

Seating devices and a shelter would also be added at both terminus stations to improve

users waiting conditions.

7.3.4 Automated vehicles itinerary

As stated above, Robosoft vehicle has been used to develop the itinerary, since the aim of

such a transport system close to a hospital is to propose an alternative service to disabled

persons. Thus, a 5 meters long and 1.5 meters width vehicle has been taken into account.

One end of the automated vehicle route would be located at the Kraainem underground

station, right behind the Pizza Hut restaurant, where a station would be developed to host

two automated vehicles.

A loop would allow the vehicles to turn over, join the station and get back on their route. To

make that loop, a few parking places – which are actually not defined as it – would

disappear. Since that station wouldn‟t be very visible from the underground exit, panels and

marking should help people to join it. A device for visually impaired persons would also be

added on the ground to lead them to the ARTS station.

Next to that station (right behind the underground building) the maintenance and control

station could take place since it is located in the immediate proximity of the demonstration

route and there is enough space to host the maintenance tent (see section “accompanying

measures” below). However, it might not be the good place to show a small exhibition about

the automated vehicle, since the spot doesn‟t benefit from a good visibility.


Figure 58 : Metron Kraainem with station and depot

Then, to join Mounierlaan from the station, the automated vehicle would share the

pedestrian space, which would become larger by suppressing parking spaces (29), the

squared hedge and bollards at the east extremity of that parking row. Some light civil

engineering work might help to optimise the access on both side of that path (e.g.

pavement). Sharing the space with the normal cars is also an option but a very difficult and

risky one considering that each parking space is a possible conflict point with the automated

vehicle. Figure 59 helps to figure out how the vehicles will be integrated in the parking lot.


Figure 59: Induct visual integration

Then, Mounierlaan configuration would be changed in order to let automated vehicles run on

a segregated lane. As that road is pretty busy, sharing it would ask a lot of investments to

make it safe and avoid any dysfunction. Thus, the parking spaces (11) on the east side of

the road should disappear in order to shift the traffic lanes laterally. To ensure that private

cars instinctively understand the changes at this key location, a horizontal marking would be

crucial as well as vertical signage panels to warn road users. Blinking traffic lights would also

be installed at the crosswalks.

It is important to note that buses would run on the same lane as automated vehicles. It would

thus not be a total segregation but a sharing of the road with professional drivers who would

be notified of the presence of automated vehicles.

With these changes, four lanes would then become operational:

- 2 of them for the traditional vehicles;

- 1 of them will be used by automated vehicle driving north;

- 1 of them (the current bus lane) will be shared by the bus and the automated vehicle

driving south.

As the bus lane wouldn‟t change, the bus going south should give way if an automated

vehicle is crossing its way to enter the parking lot. Thus, a horizontal marking would be

added and professional drivers would be aware of the situation (cf. Figure 60).


Figure 60 : Crossroad Mounierlaan - Kraainem station

Then since Kimweg and Palestrelaan are parallel, very close to each other and bring both to

Hippokrateslaan, Kimweg could be closed to traditional vehicles (except special

authorisations and firemen) to let the automated vehicles on a segregated way. A diversion

would be marked for the road users.

To let the automated vehicles travel between Mounierlaan and Kimweg, traffic lights would

be installed to ensure that no car crosses the automated vehicle lane while an automated

vehicle is coming. Thus, the city of Brussels should invest in an “intelligent” traffic lights

system which provides that the traffic lights will automatically and only turned red if an

automated vehicle is approaching. Without that system of traffic lights, the Kimweg should

have priority on the Mounierlaan all day long.

The parking exit should also be secured with a STOP and possibly with an intelligent traffic

light to turn right or left. The pedestrians would here again be warned by blinking traffic lights

at the crosswalk.


Figure 61 : crossroad Mounierlaan - Kimweg

To go north, Kimweg is an easy, straight and segregated path for the automated vehicles.

There are however possible conflicts at three exits (Voie Montefiore, parking of the firemen

and another parking in between). The people using those ways and parking would receive

special authorisations and STOP reminders would be drawn. As the firemen usually use the

entrance/exit on Hippokrateslaan, it might not present any danger as long as they are aware

of the situation.

Close to Hippokrateslaan, two stations would be settled on Kimweg. The east side station

would be located were the sidewalk is already large to use it as a waiting platform.

On the other side of the road, the creation of a station would imply slightly more work since

there is no real sidewalk. However, there is enough space available.

Those two stations would be developed to host one automated vehicle. As a reminder,

station dimensions for a Robosoft vehicle are:


- Vehicle stopping space : 1.5m (width) x 5m (length)

To connect those stations, a pedestrian crosswalk would be created, and blinking traffic

lights be added if necessary. Blinking traffic lights would also be added at the crosswalk

north Kimweg.


The arrival on Hippokrateslaan marks the end of the segregated lane reserved for

automated vehicles (cf. Figure 62). Indeed, Hippokrateslaan is narrow and surrounded by

trees, which prevents from widening the roadway. The only other option to reach the hospital

site would have been to drive through the numerous parking existing along Hippokrateslaan,

assuming the removing of dozens of parking spaces and the creation of multiple sections to

join the parking lots.

In any case, the automated vehicles are designed to get around in a mixed site, which

means to share the road with the traditional vehicles. Even more, the aim of those

automated vehicles is to be used in “normal” conditions, which means without closing or

changing the all road network: they are designed to adapt themselves in an existing context.

Thus, the crossroads between Kimweg and Hippokrateslaan would imply to add two traffic

lights (intelligent ones) on both side of Hippokrateslaan, so that the traditional vehicles would

stop when an automated vehicle is approaching. Since Kimweg is a restricted road, panel

and marking should be installed.

Figure 62 : crossroad Kimweg – Hippokrateslaan and on request station

The way on Hippokrateslaan is quite straight and easy, with a good visibility and no curves.

Only the junction with Palestrelaan might need some extra marking, STOP reminders and an

intelligent traffic light (cf. Figure 63). Those changes might be necessary especially

according to the expected increase of traffic on Palestrelaan due to the closure of Kimweg.

The traffic lights would concern the Palestrelaan exit and cars coming from the east and


wishing to turn off on Palestrelaan. The parking exist might also need a traffic light and a

STOP.

Figure 63 : Hippokrateslaan – Palestrelaan


Figure 64 : Hippokrateslaan – parking exit

The eastern roundabout on Hippokrateslaan is a key point of the automated vehicles route.

At this point, the following elements must be managed:

- The Hippokrate parking entrance

- The conventional bus stop

- The pedestrian crossing

- The small road coming from the south of the current roundabout

From the east, two traffic lanes already exist to enter either in the parking either in the

roundabout. As the automated vehicles would go straight to stay on Hippokrateslaan, an

additional making might be necessary at the exit of the parking.

To ensure the safety of all transport modes, the allocation of the crossroads should be

changed. Although the rounded structure of the road would not change, the crossing

shouldn‟t be considered as a roundabout anymore during the demonstration but as an X-

junction with two pre-sets in the middle to facilitate left turning movements (cf. Figure 65).


Figure 65 : Hippokrateslaan roundabout

To ensure the pedestrian security, blinking traffic lights and panels would be added along the

crosswalks.

Furthermore, on the west side of the new X-junction two stations would have to be designed

to host one vehicle each and to serve the parking (north) or join the pedestrian walk through

the park (south). On the south side of the road, a bus stop already exists and the available

space could be used for the automated vehicles station too. The existing and large sidewalk

would host the waiting platform, and the vehicle stop on the road, like the bus. The

interdiction of parking right next to the station should be clearly notify to avoid any conflict.

On the north side, the settlement of a station implies some work, due to a lack of waiting

space. The existing concrete planter – installed to separate the parking from the road –could

be moved of about 4 meters on a 20 meters length, in order to leave some space available

between the two first trees of the row. These changes would imply mandatory to move or get

rid of 6 parking spaces.

Between the roundabout and the hospital‟s entrance (still on Hippokrateslaan), the lateral

parking spaces should disappear to avoid any conflict with the automated vehicles, which

would apply emergency braking if a car is suddenly in his field of vision.

The two lanes road which drives into the hospital would be provided with a better marking

system and intelligent traffic lights to get out/in on/from Hippokrateslaan. Next to it, the two


bus stops on both side of the road do not present any difficulties. The professional bus

drivers should nevertheless be aware of the presence of the automated vehicles.

All pedestrian crosswalks should as usual be endowed with information panels and blinking

traffic lights.

Finally, the other end of the automated vehicles route is the pick-up/drop-off area situated

right in front of the hospital entrance. To get there, the vehicles would get in the existing loop

by using the normal way (west bridge). They would then make a loop depending on three

alternative routes (cf. Figure 66) before going back on Hippokrateslaan (east bridge). A two

vehicles capacity station should be settled.

- 1: the first alternative is to move the taxi lane to one of the four drop-off lanes, and

thus to use it as a segregated line for the automated vehicle. With that variant, a

station would be installed by suppressing or moving one row of parking spaces. This

solution implies a new “give way” on the loop, right before the exit of the vehicle.

- 2: the second variant is to share the pedestrian area in front of the entrance with the

automated vehicles, knowing that the vehicles were designed to drive on pedestrian

area too. With this alternative, which looks very natural and easy to realize, no

special investment would have to be done to create the station. This solution implies

also a new “give way” on the loop, right before the exit of the vehicles.

- 3: the third way to drive that loop is to use one of the four drop-off lanes as a

segregated way for the automated vehicles. The best lane option would be the

second one from the north, since an existing central platform could be used as the

station platform. That solution wouldn‟t imply any new marking, since a “give way” is

already there.


Figure 66 : Clinics entrance (3 alternative lines)

7.3.5 Accompanying measures

7.3.5.1 Speed

To improve traffic conditions and safety on the site during the demonstration, the difference

between the speeds of traditional and automated vehicles should be reduced. A maximum

speed of 30 km/h is therefore recommended on Hippokrateslaan where both modes coexist.

7.3.5.2 Marking

An innovated horizontal marking would be drawn on ground to visually delimitate the road

sections used by the automated vehicles. The aim is to attract the attention of users when an

innovative transport system is present. The acronym “ARTS” will also be regularly reminded

in the same way as “BUS” already exists.


When automated vehicles use separate but adjacent to conventional traffic lanes, bollards

could be added to separate flows and to increase safety by avoiding the swerved of vehicles

on the segregated lane. This would particularly be the case in the parking lot of Kraainem

metro station and on Mounierlaan.

7.3.5.3 Maintenance and control station

Loading and maintenance operations will be held in a removable tent rented for the

demonstration. To accommodate six vehicles, the tent should have a total size of

approximately 250 square meters. It must be located as close as possible of the

demonstration route and in close proximity to electrical connections.

This tent could be located behind the underground station of Kraainem, right next to the

automated vehicle station. That location might fit perfectly, except that the visibility of the

spot doesn‟t claim people‟s attention at the exit of the underground.

Another alternative solution is to settle the tent on one of the numerous parking areas, if

electrical connections are available and if the access is easy for automated vehicles.


Figure 67 : Urban integration for the Brussels City


7.4 Citizen awareness campaign plan

7.4.1 Citizen awareness campaign context

In Brussels Capital Region, there is already a good experience of campaigns aiming to

promote alternative mobility. Historically, the first big campaign about mobility concerned the

safety issues (mainly on roads). Today, at the Region level, the budget dedicated to

alternative mobility is not far from the one dedicated to safety.

In recent years, Brussels Capital Region has been setting up more than a dozen of

campaigns on alternative mobility.

For example here are the campaigns in progress:

“The seatbelt, for everyone, everywhere, all the time!” of Brussels Mobility and IBSR (Belgian Institute for road safety).

“More comfort for pedestrians on Avenue Louise”: No Deliveries and no parking on the sidewalks of Louise bottleneck.

“The Regional Parking Plan was approved: Discover the key measures that municipalities will apply”.

“For an Albert Avenue more bikeable”. A demonstration phase begins with marked bicycle paths.

LEDs illuminate the ring near Anderlecht: A first in Belgium with Brussels Mobility “Operation satchel” The school year start is the perfect time to adopt a good

behaviour to get to school safely! On the occasion of the campaign “Operation Satchel” over 130000 calendars, day planners and brochures tips and games are distributed to students in the region to remind the few golden rules of safety on the way to school.

If we look at the recent campaign, we see that the Region is mainly active in the promotion

of the soft modes pedestrian and bike and the multimodal interactions (and safety in

collaboration with IBSR). The promotion of the public transport itself is mainly left to the

operators: STIB, SNCB, TEC, De Lijn. The Region operates alone or takes the initiative

mainly where there is no institutional stakeholder or when the message concerns multi

modal issues. We must also mention some specialized organism such as the IBSR which is

committed to road safety.

Usually, the Region seeks to involve as much as possible partners for its campaigns.

Here is an abstract of pedestrian promotion on the Region Web Site

(http://www.bruxellesmobilite.irisnet.be/articles/pieton/sensibilisation-et-actions).

http://www.bruxellesmobilite.irisnet.be/articles/pieton/sensibilisation-et-actions


“For many campaigns and actions, each year, the Region educates motorists to respect

pedestrians and cyclists. Among the topics covered in the past: the respect for traffic lights,

traffic rules at intersections, parking on pedestrian crossings, the dangers of speed,

aggression and courtesy between users ... The opportunity for each campaign to remember

some rules of the highway code. Brussels Mobility also collaborates to the establishment of

mobility plans for companies’ plans and schools. Who has not met one day a rank walk `

walking bus ' guided by some parent, resulting from the mobilization projects in the context

of school travel plans? ”

Recent campaigns:

The campaign "Think of pedestrians, you will see them better" held in October 2011, providing motorists a series of tips to avoid accidents with pedestrians.

End of 2010, the campaign "Always looking before crossing" focused on teenagers and stressed the importance of looking before crossing.

In 2009, the campaign "Running a red light can cost you" addressed the issue of respect for traffic lights. The campaign, in collaboration with the Belgian Road Safety Institute, noted the dangers of non-compliance with a red light and reminded road users how to behave when approaching a traffic light.

The satchel operation, performed in collaboration with IBSR, police, etc. Renewed annually with a school calendar bringing a wealth of advice, it is intended primarily for children by giving them a few tips to get to school safely.

7.4.1.1 Types of actions and tools implemented by the Region

Production of brochures and reports to disseminate: o Reports from the mobility observatory distributed to players in the field. o Brochures "all mailboxes" distributed to all Brussels or via a wide distribution

network (municipalities, associations, operators TC, some shops, etc.): communication about the parking plan, the collective taxis service “Collecto”, etc.

Websites :

Main site internet Brussels Mobility and sites dedicated to a particular campaign such as the website https://toolboxmobilite.irisnet.be/

https://toolboxmobilite.irisnet.be/


These sites exploit most possibilities offered by the Web 2.0 to convey their

message: Multimedia (also advertising spots and reportages), interactive

modules and various applications.

Broadcast of advertising spots in the media:

Mainly through the regional press and the Regional TV‟s: TéléBruxelles (french) and TvBrussel (nederlands).

Press conferences, seminars:

The schedule of conferences organised or co-organised by the Region is well filled. The first goal is to gather professionals, share experience and explore new ways to improve the quality of life of Brussels inhabitants. The second is to exploit the visibility in the media to disseminate a message to all.

Events :

The main event of the year is the Mobility Week in September where all Medias are put to work. It ends with a car-free Sunday.

7.4.1.2 How does work a standard campaign for the Region

The campaigns are set up by a professional team from the Region staff. Depending on the

size and the ambition of the campaign the team will prepare the specifications to outsource

to the private sector or coordinate itself all the stages with various subcontractors.

7.4.1.3 Experience of campaign in Saint-Luc Hospital area

At Saint-Luc, the campaign to promote institutional values could serve as a guideline. This

made entirely in-house campaign is the result of thinking process and collective work of the

staff. It has led to the definition of a message and its communication in particular through a

poster campaign.

Extract of the website of the Hospital:

"Our staff shows its values to educate staff, patients and visitors to the five corporate values, a poster campaign was carried out with the collaboration of nearly one hundred staff members".

"By team, they have chosen a value and a slogan. These are now the subject of a poster that decorates the walls of Saint-Luc hospital and the information screens in the coming months[...]".

The means available to disseminate the messages are numerous but to reach a high

number of people; there are several ways that work well from previous experience:

Communication in the waiting room or the secretariat via a display of leaflets (preferably both).


Oral communication via secretaries and / or care providers (with or without provision of a leaflet).

If you want to reach patients and visitors and influence their choice before their arrival at the site, then it is important to communicate when they ask for appointment or information.

Communication via the website which has a growing impact. The site is increasingly used by patients and visitors to find information on cares, schedules of visits and transportation modes to get to the clinic.

7.4.2 Step 1 - campaign aims and objectives

This scheme shows the pathway from inputs of the campaign to final impact on the people.

The campaign will principally aim to reach potential users of the demonstration but also a

much wider audience.

For everybody, the campaign aims to entrench in the minds the benefits of automating light

vehicles for the "last mile" of journey in public transport.

For potential users of the ARTS, the aim would be to convince them to experience the new

system and leave their car at home.

The campaign must be consistent with the regional policy that aimed at changing the

behaviour of users to a cleaner and sustainable use of transport infrastructure. This means

that the campaign must send a message consistent with the message written in the last

Regional Mobility Plan (Called “IRIS2 plan”).

At the site scale, the objective is to achieve a good level of use of the system (easily

measurable) and, at the Region scale, the objective is the development of a positive attitude

in front of automated vehicles (measurable in theory with a panel depending on the budget

allowed).

For non potential users of the ARTS, the aim is to give a positive impress of the automatic

vehicles to prepare the field in case of a larger integration. An idea would be to give the tools

to the users to be able to assess and claim its deployment in their area if there is a need (for

example, this option could be integrated in the "Toolbox mobility"12 of the Region).

7.4.2.1 Target audience

The campaign will target the visitors (visitors, patients, employees) of the hospital (and its

website).

12


Input Activities Outcomes Impacts



The population transiting (or wishing to transit) in the two metro stations are also candidates

to be part of the target audience.

To get the total audience, we should also look at the people going (or willing to go) to the

sport Hall and the university Campus along the path of the automated bus.

To have an idea of the number of potential users we want to reach, we may look at the

annual hospital visitors and employees. That gives about 5000 employees, 40 000 patients

and an estimation of 70 000 different visitors a year. It must be noticed that the employees

are a special target because of their high frequency trips to the hospital.

Reaching 90% of employees, 50% of patients and 20% of visitors gives a target of 38 500

potential users. This figure is not very precise but gives the magnitude of the goal. If we

include the visitors of the sport hall and other facilities near the hospital 50 000 potential

users could be set as voluntarist target.

The target population will be extended to people visiting the dedicated pages of the websites

of Brussels Mobility and of the partners agreeing to participate (public transport operators,

AATL, IBGE,...).The attendance of the website of the hospital represents many thousands

visitors per day.

The campaign will be part of the permanent ongoing communication campaign of the Region

about the promotion of alternative modes. If the schedule permits, the campaign could take

place during the Mobility Week to be held in September 2014. In this case, the target

audience will be very important. For a better impact, a demo vehicle could be shown in the

area of the Parc Royal during the crowded “Sunday without car”.

7.4.2.2 Time Frame

End Month 1: 30% of bus capacity

End Month 2: 40% of bus capacity

End month 3: 50% of bus capacity

End month 4 to 6: more than 60% of bus capacity.

7.4.3 Step 2 – Formative research: target population segmentation and baseline evaluation

7.4.3.1 Target segmentation

The target audience will be segmented using the results of the SP performed in this study

and investigations of a broader SP survey conducted as part of the "Update model transport

of the Brussels-Capital "(based on CIM and BELDAM surveys). This information will allow us


to segment users into different groups representing the diversity of socio-economic profiles

observed. This information will be used to select a panel of potential users.

They will be asked, specific questions to find out the factors that influence their behaviour.

The Max Sem Method will be used to evaluate the different stages “pre-contemplative,

contemplative, prepared for action, change of habit” of the panel.

► Stage 1: Pre-contemplative stage. Individuals in this stage are quite happy with the way they currently make their trips (i.e. as car drivers) and at the moment have no desire to change to another mode.

► Stage 2: Contemplative stage. Individuals in this stage are not as satisfied with their current travel behaviour (as pre-contemplators). They would like to change to another way of travelling (mode), but are unsure of which mode to switch to, or have not enough confidence to do so at this stage.

► Stage 3: Preparation/action stage. Individuals in this stage have decided which mode they intend to switch to for some or all of their trips, and may have already tried this new mode for some of their trips.

► Stage 4: Maintenance stage. Individuals in this stage have successfully replaced some or all of their trips to the „new‟ mode and this new behaviour (way of travelling) becomes the dominant mode they use for most of their trips (a new habit has been formed).

This information will be useful to decide which stage(s) the specific campaign measures

must target.

7.4.3.2 Baseline evaluation

The method suggested for evaluation is a classic method for evaluating communication

campaigns via a panel (focus group) interviewed before and after the campaign. Depending

on the budget available at the time of the campaign, the method with a control group (better

but more expensive) or with just one group will be used.


In practice, the MaxSumo evaluation Tool provided by EPOMM will be used.

7.4.4 Step 3 – Campaigning the campaign: stakeholders and political support

Even if it is not the target audience, the success of the project needs also a great awareness

work toward the other stakeholders.

Like the potential users, the politicians need to be convinced of the system merits (if the

representation principle works well, the main campaign will also work for them) and different

lobbying groups that have an influence on the mode choices.

The technical advisers including the Region Itself, its institutional partners (IBGE, AATL,

Operators,…).

The authority that will give the agreement to automated projects: the Region, the communes,

the police, etc.

The authority that will finance the project: Federal, Region, Communes.

The project is managed by the administration of the Region of Brussels - Capital. The final

decision to implement a demonstration is taken by the Minister Brigitte Groewels. The

Evaluation Design

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support of the Region and the cabinet for the demonstration will depend on the investment

costs needed.

The viability of the project also depends on the cooperation of municipal authorities to

ensure their support and agreement for local improvements to be made in territories under

their jurisdiction

Saint-Luc hospital and the university are also key partners since the service is directly and

principally designed for their employees, students, patients and visitors. A part of the route is

located directly on their property and their participation is required for various technical

aspects such as storage and night charging.

A third major player is the STIB, the Brussels public transport operator that will see his

network improved by the project.

For the awareness campaign, it is important to spread the messages to stakeholders as

many as possible: IBGE, AATL, IBSR, TEC, SNCB, De Lijn, etc.

Concerning the funds for the awareness campaign, there are many possibilities but also

many obstacles. The funds could be raised by the Region, the STIB, the Federal, NGO‟s

(foundation Roi Baudouin) but for now, there is no guarantee.

It must be noticed that in may 2014 will be held the Federal and Regional legislative

elections. it will be followed by the set up of a new Federal and Regional Government.

7.4.5 Step 4 - social Marketing mix

Extract of the methodology: "The Social Marketing Mix is drawn from the wider principles of marketing, including the four P’s (Product, Price, Promotion and Place), but adding other two criteria that are relevant for the TA campaigns: People and Process. Thus, a TA campaign team should decide on the best usage of the 6 P’s": ► Product or Social Idea: This is the offer (your main idea or social good) made to the

target audience. This will be, in terms of benefits, associated with changed behaviour, such as cleaner air, fewer deaths on the road, a better life for children in the community, less polluted city centre, etc.

► Price: In the context of Social Marketing, it is about the personal costs to an individual or household in adopting a changed behaviour such as longer journeys to work, more physical exercise, less convenience, higher car parking charges. These are, of course, perceived benefits too, for example, in improving health but for most people such factors will be seen as the price to pay for change. However, people are very receptive to ideas to improve personal health in relation to everyday transport.

► Place: The campaign should offer the optimum places where people can gain more information, or take part personally in the campaign such as exhibitions and workshops in open public spaces and community facilities and where interaction between the campaign team and the population can take place such as on public transport, in car parks, etc.


► Promotion: Marketing Social Communications is vital to any campaign and the core to this is the message-what, from whom and how. In social marketing, communication elements increasingly include viral marketing (through blogs, web pages, Facebook and Twitter, word of mouth marketing and public relations) because this is how people are communicating.

► People: The delivery of a campaign often involves strong interpersonal communication between campaign organisers and their customers. It is not a matter of personal selling. At its best it is a continuous dialogue which can be very useful in campaign development. This is particularly the case at a local level where personal involvement of campaign staff in local meetings and events is a way to engage people who avoid other forms of communication.

► Processes: Social Marketing also involves processes which need to give people confidence that they can approach the campaign team to discuss matters, offer opinions and be involved. This includes responses to telephone calls, e-mails and handling feedback in a systematic and personal way.

7.4.5.1 Product or Social Idea

The objective of the awareness campaign is to persuade potential users (but also

stakeholder) that automated vehicles offer them much comfort and a good alternative to car.

All the advantages must be promoted:

Comfort: travel time, waiting time, reliable, adapted to mobility impaired person, reliable,

comfortable, silent, no congestion, no parking trouble.

Impact on environment: less noise, less pollutant emissions, less congestion, less accident,

less cars (more place for other activities).

For users of Saint-Luc hospital: the objective is to show that this particular solution provides

a substantial improvement in comfort to reach the clinic in public transport.

For other users: the objective is to show that this mode is relevant to connect the last "mile"

of a journey and that they are entitled to ask for the implementation of such type of transport

for other routes that affect them more directly.

For institutional stakeholders: the objective is demonstrated that the system "works". This

means that the socio-economic balance is positive. It brings more value to the user (the

request is real) and the environment (modal shift from car to TC) at a reasonable cost and

deserves to be part of the set of tools available for the Region to improve mobility.

7.4.5.2 Price

In term of generalized cost, the time gain must be taken into account (also the gains for the

environment but they are usually far less high than the time saved, see the socio-economic

evaluation) and compare to the price of the service.

The survey has shown that 24% of people were ready to pay 2€ per journey to reach the

clinic, and 44% with a reduced waiting time of 5 minutes. The time saved by the users is not

easy to evaluate especially for those who came from the mode “car” and for mobility


impaired people obliged to walk via Alma Metro station. The mean perceived time gain

evaluated for public transport users is around 15 minutes. It takes into account the difficulty

to walk for a part of the patients and visitors. With a common mean value of time of 10€/h

(used in several studies in Brussels), the potential mean gain is equal to 2.5€.

The conclusion is that under a certain limit, it is possible to set up a special pricing for the

service without disturbing too much the level of the demand.

With reference to the demonstration, we have seen that the demand during the peak hour

may require more vehicles than provided. If necessary, the pricing could be use to adjust the

demand in the peak hour.

But in practice, it will be far easier to give access freely to the service or with a valid STIB

ticket.

In term of acceptance and the survey confirms it, the inclusion of the access license in the

STIB ticket seems to be the best accepted solution.

The campaign should communicate on the price that will be either low or free (included in

the STIB ticket) and the comparison with the price of car use and parking, gain in time, less

physical effort, etc.

7.4.5.3 Place, Promotion and People

The best places to communicate with the potential users are:

The hospital itself (lobby, staff rooms, lifts, website,…) everyday

The car parks

The metro stations Alma and Kraainem (and website of STIB)

In the most crowded places during the “Sunday without cars”

The promotion of the system demonstration should also use the viral marketing through

blogs, web pages, Facebook and Twitter. The members of the panel could be asked to place

a comment on their Facebook or twitter account. Blogger with influence could be proposed

to place a short comment on the project.

It important that the team in charge of the campaign is in direct contact with the potential

user in the different places mentioned above and especially during the events like the week

of mobility.

The experience of the previous campaign with the employee contribution on the hospital

values could be used as a good basis.

7.4.5.4 Processes

The users will have the possibility to give their feedback through a dedicated web site and

phone number. The link will be mentioned on each campaign media.


But the best way to collect feedback is to ask directly the people during the campaign. It will

be one of the responsibilities of the team in charge of the dissemination. To help them, they

will have a small basic questionnaire to help structuring the exchange with potential users.

7.4.6 Step 5 - SWOT analysis

The Swot analysis is used here to review the global campaign strategy.

Strengths:

- Strong interest of the stakeholders. - The system meet a real need, the demand forecast is quite high. - The potential users are well identified and quite easy to reach. - There is an agreement with Saint-Luc hospital and the University (Saint–Luc hospital

has agreed to provide a storage room and electricity to charge the batteries). - The project is consistent with the Region plan and could be part of other campaign. - This is not the only project of this type in Brussels (see the project of the EC museum

connection).

Weaknesses

- Difficulties to find funds. - There is no direct financial participation offer from the Saint-Luc hospital. - The STIB is not yet involved in the process. - The number of partners aware of the project is still limited. - The law and fiscal context is not clear. - The cost of the infrastructure and facilities needed for the system is a major

constraint.

Opportunities

- The involvement of more Region partners could help to raise the necessary funds.

Threats

- The shortage of funds. - Difficulties to reach the futures patients or visitors if the campaign is too long before

the demonstration. - The level of involvement of the STIB and other potential partner if they do not agree

with the project.


8. Ex-ante evaluation

The outcome of this step is the evaluation of the measurable indicators, and their cross-

comparison with the correspondent reference case and threshold for success.

Ev

alu

ati

on

ca

teg

ory

Impacts Indicators Success threshold Success? Comments

Accep

tance

User acceptance


≥ 20% of the people coming to the site interested by the

system. ≥ 50% of mobility impaired person

coming to the site interested in the

system

Yes

Results of the surveys indicated that 76% of the people coming to the site were interested in the service. Furthermore,

surveys showed that 20% of the people experienced problems to walk more than 1km and that more than 80% of them would use this service to come to the hospital.

Willingness to pay

User willingness

Half the people interested in the

service agree to pay for a round-trip

No but encouraging

Results of the surveys showed that 22% of people

interested by the service are willing to pay for an extra fare (2€ for a round-trip) to travel with the automated bus if the travel times and waiting times are the same as the conventional bus. With waiting times lower for the automated bus (-5 minutes), 42% of people (coming to the

site by car) are willing to pay more (2€ for a round-trip).

Qu

alit

y o

f se

rvic

e

Comfort Perceived comfort

Improved perceived comfort (compared to a conventional

bus)

Yes

From the econometric models, we observed that a time saving of 83 seconds is assigned to each trip with the automated bus.


Tra

nsp

ort

pa

tte

rns

Modal change System modal share

Shift from cars to automated bus

system ≥5% of the people coming to

the site by car

Yes

Models evaluated a modal shift from personal vehicles to public transport modes of 55 passengers during the time period 12 am-1 pm (peak

hour on the Saint-Luc Clinics area), which corresponds to 8% of the people coming by car. The average fuel

consumption in the Brussels Capital Region is around 7.5 l/100km** and the average distance from/to the Saint-Luc Clinics area by car is 11.8km**. Using the conversion tables (1 litre fuel = 10 kWh***), we can estimate the total fuel consumption to 487 kWh (12h am-13h pm) and the fuel consumption per passenger.km to 0.75 kWh/passenger.km.

System use


≥ 520 passengers.km between 7-9 am

Yes

The passenger.kilometers are estimated to 1850 (round-trip of 2.1 km) between 7 am and 9 am in the morning. The daily

passenger.kilometers are estimated to 19181 pass.km.

Total number of trips ≥ 230 trips for 7-9

am Yes

For the period 7-9 am, the demand is estimated to 882 trips from a trip with stops at

the 2 main stations (round-trip of 2.1km). The daily demand is estimated to 9134 passengers.


Vehicle occupancy Threshold ≥ 57% Yes

The vehicle occupancy will depend on the time slots and on the peak periods in the time slots. The supply dimensioning was calculated in the aim of taking into account the demand fluctuations (maximum theoretical bus occupancy of 85%) and a maximum

waiting time of 90 seconds, the expected demand involves the use of 8 vehicles for the most loaded period (10 am-6 pm) and 4 vehicles in the off-peak hours (6-10 pm). Average daily vehicle occupancy is estimated to 64% and to 85% for the peak hours 12 am-2 pm.

System performances

Average Waiting time Threshold ≤ 72

seconds Yes

The average waiting time is included between 38 and 75 seconds for the automated bus.

System capacity

Effective system capacity

Threshold ≤85% of theoretical capacity

(based on manufacturers requirements)

Yes

The supply was dimensioned to respect a maximum theoretical bus occupancy of 85% in the aim to take into

account the demand fluctuations.

So

cia

l im

pacts

Spatial accessibility

Change in range of key activities within time

thresholds

Spatial accessibility improved by 50%

No but encouraging

With a walking access time estimated to 636s and an access time using the automated bus to 380s., we can calculate an accessibility improvement of 40%.

En

vir

on

men

t

Energy

Daily consumption Gain of 5%

compared to fossil fuel transport

Yes

Based on supply dimensioning, vehicles would travel 2621 kilometres every day. Daily consumption was evaluated to around 524 kWh(according to Induct

manufacturer specifications, one vehicle consumes around 16 kWh (nominal) for an autonomy of around 80 kilometres (with a slight slope)).

Energy efficiency Gain of 5%

compared to fossil fuel transport

Yes

The electricity consumption is estimated to 0.027 kWh/passenger.km. The energy gain is estimated to 96%/pass.km compared to fossil fuel transport.


Land take Change in road space

availability to other users

Gain of road space No

Shift from cars to public transports implied a decrease of 47 PCU (between 12 am and 1 pm) and allowed to estimate gains of space of around 587m². Inversely, losses of space could be noticed by (i) suppressing parking lots (725m²) or convertible spaces (418m²) to widen the roadway and to remove possible conflict point between cars and automated bus and by (ii) depriving road space with segregated lanes (1243m²). Synthesis results showed losses of space of around 1800m².

Fin

ancia

l im

pacts

Start up costs


/ /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between 250 000 and 750 000 euros. This point will be detailed

in deliverable D7.2


n / /

Data depending on manufacturers


/ / Data depending on

manufacturers

Operating costs

Personnel / /

Working hours have been evaluated between 200 000

and 400 000 euros. This point will be detailed in

deliverable D7.2

Vehicle maintenance / /

We estimate that 2 hours are necessary for the maintenance of vehicles. The maintenance costs are evaluated between 5 000 and 10 000 euros. This point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2


/ /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between

10 000 and 50 000 euros. This point will be detailed

in deliverable D7.2


/ /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between 5 000 and 20 000 euros. This

point will be detailed in deliverable D7.2

Revenues Operating revenues / /

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between 300 000 and 750 000 euros. This point will be detailed


in deliverable D7.2

TO

TA

L

Total < 1 000 000

A p

rio

ri y

es

Preliminary investigations evaluated the costs between

500 000 and 1000 000 (excluding vehicle

acquisition/construction and control systems and

apparatus). This point will be detailed in deliverable

D7.2

Eco

nom

ic im

pacts

Temporary job provided

by installation and

demonstration


/ /

Preliminary investigations evaluated full time 8 employees for the implementation (maintenance and operation)

Efficiency


/ / This point will be precised in the deliverable D7.2


/ / This point will be precised in the deliverable D7.2

Internal Rate of Return / / This point will be precised in the deliverable D7.2

Benefit/Cost ratio / / This point will be precised in the deliverable D7.2

* "People who came in the site by car and would take the service" does not indicate whether the

automated bus is used for the total travel (Origin-Destination) or just for a short distance on the site

(for example to access to the parking lots).

** Brussels Capital Region transport model "IRIS2"

*** http://www.renovationdurable.eu/Notions-Valeurs-de-conversion.html


9. Conclusion

Models and surveys confirmed the advantages of an automated transport system in Saint-

Luc Clinics area in terms of accessibility. The time necessary to access the main entrance of

the hospital from the nearest metro station is nearly divided by 2. This explains the high

interest of the people interviewed on the site (more than 76% are interested). Surveys also

confirmed the high proportion of people experiencing problems to walk and their increased

interest in the system (more than 80% are interested). In consequence, most indicators in

terms of use (vehicle occupancy, number of trips, etc.) are clearly above the threshold

defined previously.

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