Citizen views on most important problems and 2018 voting intentions

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Citizen views on most important

problems and 2018 voting intentionsFindings from Afrobarometer Round 7 survey in

Zimbabwe

Presented at Harare, Zimbabwe

10 May 2017

At a glance

• Most important problems: Zimbabweans cite

unemployment as the most important problem facing

citizens that the government has to address.

• Performance approval of elected leaders: A majority

approves of President Mugabe’s performance over the

past 12 months.

• Support for grand coalition: Almost half of adult

Zimbabweans support the idea of a grand coalition

ahead of the harmonised elections.

• Voting intentions : Survey shows that ZANU-PF has a

clear edge if presidential elections were to be held

tomorrow.

What is Afrobarometer?

• A pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that

measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance,

the economy, civil society, and other topics.

• Started in 12 African countries in 1999, expanded to 36

countries in Round 6 (2014/2015). Round 7 surveys are being conducted in 2016/2017.

• Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing

high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy

advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news

media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.

• A national partner in each country conducts the survey. In Zimbabwe, Afrobarometer Round 7 survey was conducted by

the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI).

Where Afrobarometer works

Methodology

• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens

All respondents are randomly selected.

Sample is distributed across regions/states/provinces and urban/rural

areas in proportion to their share in the national population.

Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.

• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s

choice.

• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and

over time.

• Sample size in Zimbabwe of 1200 adult citizens yields a margin of error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.

• Fieldwork for Round 7 in Zimbabwe was conducted between 28 January and 10 February 2017.

Survey coverage

Survey demographics

Gender %

Men 50

Women 50

Residence

Urban 33%

Rural 67%

Education

No formal education 6%

Primary 21%

Secondary 58%

Post-secondary 15%

Religion

Christian 74%

Muslim 1%

Other 25%

7

Findings

Most Important Problems for

Zimbabweans

Key findings

■ Five in 10 adult Zimbabweans (53%) identify unemployment as the most important problem that the government should address.

■ There is an increase, from 22% in 2014 to 31% in 2017, in the number of Zimbabweans who think that management of the economy is the number two problem, behind unemployment, that the government of Zimbabwe needs to address.

■ The survey also shows an increase in the proportions of ordinary Zimbabweans calling for the government to address infrastructure/roads (29% from 22% in 2014), wages, incomes and salaries (18% from 13% in 2014) and food shortages/famine (20% from 10% in 2014).

Most important problems | Zimbabwe | 2014 and

2017

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this country that government should address?

53%

31%

13%

8%

29%

13%

18%

14%

15%

20%

17%

51%

22%

19%

17%

22%

14%

13%

19%

19%

10%

20%

Unemployment

Management of the economy

Corruption

Farming/agriculture

Infrastructure / roads

Poverty/destitution

Wages, incomes and salaries

Water supply

Education

Food shortage/famine

Health

2014 2017

Performance approval ratings

of leaders

Key findings

■ President Mugabe continues to get positive ratings from Zimbabweans with above half (56%) saying that they approve of the way he has performed his jobs over the past 12 months.

■ Less than half (40%) of adult Zimbabweans approve of the way their MPs have performed their jobs over the past 12 months.

■ More women (57%) than men (55%) and more rural (63%) than urban (44%) based citizens approve of President Mugabe’s performance. However, there is an inverse relationship between education level and approval of president’s performance.

Performance approval for leaders | Zimbabwe |2017

Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the followingpeople have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enoughabout them to say? (the total proportion for mayor and traditional leaders does not add upto 100% because of the N/A category which is not reported)

Approve/Strongly Approve

Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove

RefusedDon’t know

President 56% 34% 5% 6%

Your mayor 51% 21% 13% 1%

Local government councilors

49% 42% 2% 7%

Member of Parliament 40% 48% 3% 10%

Traditional leaders 28% 28% 1% 25%

Approval of President’s performance| by education,

urban-rural location and gender |Zimbabwe | 2017

37%

31%

42%

29%

15%

22%

36%

53%

34%

55%

57%

44%

63%

79%

71%

52%

37%

56%

Men

Women

Urban

Rural

No formal education

Primary

Secondary

Post-secondary

Average

Approve/Strongly Approve Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove

Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?

Approval of President’s performance | by province |

Zimbabwe | 2017

74%

66%

65%

59%

56%

54%

51%

47%

43%

37%

56%

14%

29%

30%

31%

35%

37%

36%

47%

37%

43%

34%

Masvingo

Mashonaland Central

Midlands

Matabeleland South

Mashonaland West

Mashonaland East

Harare

Manicaland

Bulawayo

Matabeleland North

Total

Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove Approve/Strongly Approve


Approval of President’s performance | Zimbabwe

|1999 - 2017


69%

28%

70%

66%

39%37%

34%

21%

59%

27%24%

59%57% 56%

1999 2004 2005 2009 2012 2014 2017

Disapprove/ Strongly Disapprove Approve/Strongly Approve

Freedom to criticise public

figures and institutions

Key findings

■ A majority of Zimbabweans (62%) are not at all free to

criticise President Robert Mugabe.

■ Midlands province has the highest proportion of

residents (78%) while Mashonaland West province has

the least proportion (41%) of residents who do ‘not at

all’ feel free to criticise the President.

Freedom to criticise leaders and institutions

|Zimbabwe |2017

Respondents were asked: In this country, how free do you feel to criticise the following:

78%

73%

62%

63%

55%

55%

53%

50%

15%

23%

33%

34%

35%

41%

37%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

President Mugabe

The army

Your MP

The police

Joice Mujuru

Your councilor

Morgan Tsvangirai

Your traditional leader

Somewhat/Completely free Not very free/Not at all free

Freedom to criticise President Mugabe | by political party

affiliation, education and urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | 2017


64%

61%

54%

67%

62%

58%

71%

58%

62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Urban

Rural

No formal education

Primary

Secondary

Post-secondary

MDC-T

ZANU-PF

Total

Urban Rural No formal education Primary Secondary Post-secondary MDC-T ZANU-PF Total

Freedom to criticise President |by province |

Zimbabwe |2017


78%

73%

72%

72%

65%

65%

62%

58%

57%

53%

41%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Midlands

Matabeleland North

Bulawayo

Matabeleland South

Harare

Manicaland

Average

Masvingo

Mashonaland East

Mashonaland Central

Mashonaland West

Attitudes towards opposition grand

coalition ahead of 2018 elections

Key findings

■ A plurality of adult Zimbabweans (45%) agree that

opposition political parties should work together under

a grand coalition in order for them to win the 2018

harmonized elections.

■ Support for a grand coalition ahead of 2018 elections

is strongest among citizens who have post-secondary

education (62%) and live in urban areas (59%).

Majorities are supportive in Matabeleland North (52%),

Harare (62%) and Bulawayo (64%) provinces.

Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised

elections |Zimbabwe | 2017

Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether youdisagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidentialelection, opposition political parties should work together under a Grand Coalition

2%

15%

11%

28%

45%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Refused Don’t know Neither Agree nor

Disagree

Disagree/Strongly

Disagree

Agree/Strongly Agree

Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised elections |

by gender, urban-rural location and education |Zimbabwe |

2017

Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether youdisagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidentialelection, opposition political parties should work together under a grand coalition

47%

42%

59%

36%

21%

36%

46%

62%

45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Men

Women

Urban

Rural

No formal education

Primary

Secondary

Post-secondary

Average

Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised elections |

by party affiliation |Zimbabwe | 2017


28%

41%

30%

20%

33%

20%

45%

23%

47%

54%

67%

68%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Average

ZANU-PF

Zim-PF

Non-partisan

Other parties

MDC-T

Agree/Strongly agree Disagree/Strongly disagree

Support for grand coalition | by province | Zimbabwe

| 2017


64%

62%

54%

45%

45%

44%

42%

39%

34%

31%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Bulawayo

Harare

Matabeleland North

Average

Mashonaland East

Masvingo

Manicaland

Mashonaland West

Mashonaland Central

Matabeleland South

Midlands

Voting intentions

Key findings

■ Survey shows that ZANU-PF has an edge if presidential elections

were to be held tomorrow.

■ Asked which party’s candidate one would vote for in a

hypothetical presidential elections, a day after the survey, 38%

said ZANU-PF, 24% refused to answer, 16% said MDC-T, 11% said

they would note vote and 4% said they would vote for a ZIMPF

candidate (before the split) and 2% said they would vote for other

parties.

■ Survey shows that ZANU-PF still commands support in the rural

areas while a plurality (31%) of those who refused to answer are

urban based.

Voting intentions | Zimbabwe | 2017

Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, whichparty’s candidate would you vote for?

38%

24%

16%

11%

5%

4%

2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

ZANU-PF

Refused to answer

MDC-T

Would not vote

Don't know

ZPF – Joice Mujuru (before split)

Other

Voting intentions | by urban-rural location | Zimbabwe

| 2017

Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, whichparty’s candidate would you vote for?

19%

24%

3%4%

14%

31%

6%

14%

47%

2%3%

9%

21%

4%

16%

38%

2%4%

11%

24%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

MDC-T ZANU-PF Other ZPF (before

split)

Would not

vote

Refused DK

Urban Rural Total

Voting intentions | by education level| Zimbabwe |

2017

Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?

5%

10%

18%21%

16%

61%

55%

34%

18%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No formal

education

Primary Secondary Post-secondary Total

MDC-T ZANU-PF

Voting intentions | by province | Zimbabwe | 2017


14%

6%

13%

7%

10%

23%

24%

20%

22%

12%

16%

51%

51%

49%

47%

42%

41%

33%

26%

25%

24%

38%

Matabeleland South

Mashonaland Central

Midlands

Masvingo

Mashonaland East

Mashonaland West

Manicaland

Harare

Matabeleland North

Bulawayo

Total

ZANU-PF MDC-T

Voting intentions | by age |

Zimbabwe | 2017

16%

20%

11%

16%

32%

38%

54%

38%

27%26%

17%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-35 36-50 51+ Total

MDC-T ZANU-PF Refused

Professed voting intentions | Zimbabwe | 2005 - 2017


29% 24%

32%31%

44%

38%39%

57%

36%32%

21% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2009 2010 2012 2014 2017

ZANU-PF MDC-T

Conclusions

• A majority of Zimbabweans view the unemployment

problem as a fundamental problem that the

government has to deal with.

• President Mugabe continues to get positive ratings

from Zimbabweans with more than half saying that

they approve of the way he has performed their jobs

over the past twelve months.

• Close to half of adult citizens feel that the opposition

has a realistic chance of winning next year’s

presidential elections if they form a grand coalition.

Despite this, the ruling ZANU-PF has an edge over the

MDC-T and other opposition political parties.

Thank you

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Citizen views on most important problems and 2018 voting intentions

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