Citigroup 11 th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006
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Transcript of Citigroup 11 th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006
Citigroup 11th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference
December 7, 2006
Packaging Corporation of America
Paul T. SteckoChairman and CEO
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Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.
Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.
Packaging Corporation of America
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Pure Play in the Right Product
% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products
98%
53%
21% 20%15%
Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper
Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone
Koch / GP
Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates
95%
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006SeptYTD
Export % Import %
Containerboard Imports and Exportsas a Percentage of Production
Source: AF & PA reports
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Containerboard Capacity Growth (U.S. Only)
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: AF & PA Capacity Survey. Includes permanent shutdowns announced after the survey and current indefinite shutdowns as of December 5, 2006.
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Key Cost Data ’05 – ‘06 % 1992 Avg. Increase
Recycled Mills -Key Cost and Investment Drivers
U.S. Natural Gas (1)(2) $1.74 $7.09 307%
(per thousand cubic ft.)
OPEC Crude Oil (1)(3) $17.81 $56.37 217%(per barrel)
Electricity (1) $48.30 $58.74 22% (per MKWH)
Recycled Fiber(1) $27.00 $75.08 178% (per ton)
1. Source of pricing data: U.S. Government Energy Information Administration for U.S. natural gas, OPEC crude oil and electricity prices available as of December 4, 2006, and industry publications for recycled fiber prices which excludes delivery costs of about $20.00 per ton.
2. Wellhead price of natural gas, excluding $1.00 to $1.50 in delivery and transportation costs.3. Landed cost to U.S.4. PCA estimate based on Industry publications and cost studies.
40%
30%
70%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Fiber Energy Total
% of Total Cash Cost (4)
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-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug. Sept Oct
Industry Corrugated Products DemandPer Workday(2)
Year-over-Year% Change (1)
(1) Year-over-year change 2005 vs 2004 by month, and January - October 2006(2) Source: Fiber Box Association
2005 2006
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2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Inventory Linerboard Prices
Industry Containerboard Inventory & Pricing
Sources: Industry Inventory, Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association; Linerboard Prices, Industry Publications
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Price Per Ton000 Tons
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Mill2005 Production
(000 tons)% of
ProductionLinerboard
Counce, TN 966 41%Valdosta, GA 475 20%
Total Linerboard 1,441 61%
Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 531 23%Filer City, MI 375 16%
Total Medium 906 39%Total System 2,347 100%
Mill System
* Counce
* Tomahawk
* Filer City
Valdosta *
• Low Cost
• Primarily Virgin Fiber
• Fiber and Energy Flexibility
• Low Natural Gas Usage
• Lightweight Capability
• High Integration Level
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100% 100%
59%55%
38% 36%30%
23%19%
Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices
Wastepaper Utilization
Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates
Solvay Norampac Temple-Inland Koch / GP International Paper
Visy Weyerhaeuser Smurfit-Stone PCA
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3%
18%
44%
35%
Mill Purchased Fuel Mix
Nat
ura
l Gas
Bark
Coal
Oil
4Q ’05 Actual2000
36%
4%
27%
33%
Natural Gas
Bark
Coal
Oil
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Corrugated Products
Differentiated Operating Strategy
• Stand-alone profit centers
• Value-added products
• Two-thirds local accounts
• Over 8,300 customers
• Top 30 accounts represent
only about 30% of sales
13Corrugated plantsSheet/specialty plants
Corrugated Products System
Oxnard
Garland
Phoenix
Salt Lake City Windsor
NorthglennDenver
El Paso
Waco
Plano
Los Angeles
OmahaMarshalltown
MinneapolisGolden Valley
Muskogee
Colby
Jackson
Winter Haven
Jacksonville
Opelika
Atlanta
NewberryHonea Path
RutherfordtonMorgantonKnoxville
GoldsboroSalisbury
High Point
Roanoke
RichmondHarrisonburg
Baltimore
Northampton
Chelmsford
Watertown
Syracuse
Buffalo
Conrad
Milwaukee
Burlington
Vincennes
Gas City
AllentownTrexlertown
LancasterHanover
Edmore
GrandvillePlymouth
Akron
Pittsburgh
Middletown Newark
Ashland
South Gate
Arlington
Donna
Fairfield
Franklin
Acorn
Jackson
OliveBranch
Miami
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Corrugated Products Growth (1)
Cu
mu
lati
ve %
Ch
ang
e
(1) Shipments per workday / FBA Data for Industry, and PCA actuals
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oct YTD ‘06
PCA Industry
33%
3%
15
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
J F M A M J J A S O N D
PCA Box Shipments2005, 2004, 2003 and 2002
MMSF Per Workday
2005 2004 2003 2002
16
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
E-Commerce Retail Sales
$ Billions
1Q – 3Q Average4th Quarter
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, except for 4Q ’06 estimated based on current published reports
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Industry Margins – 3Q 2006Containerboard Segment (1)
Sales ($MM) $ 567 $ 1,250 $ 746 $ 1,733 $ 1,245EBIT ($MM) (2) 95 125 74 165 102
EBIT % 16.7% 10.0% 9.9% 9.5% 8.2%
PCA(4) IP TIN SSCC WY
Interest Cost ($MM) (3) 8 31 16 73 24Interest Cost % 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 4.2% 2.0%
(1) Company third quarter earnings press releases and SEC filings.(2) Adjustments were made to the following companies’ reported containerboard segment earnings before interest and taxes per their press releases or SEC filings to eliminate
unusual or non-recurring items with adjustments to International Paper of ($13MM) and to Weyerhaeuser of $6MM.(3) Total reported company interest cost was pro-rated based on net sales by segment to reflect segment allocated interest cost. (4) For comparability to other companies for reported segment earnings, PCA results exclude corporate overhead, other expense, net, and solid wood loss from operations. PCA’s
containerboard segment sales, EBIT and pre-tax earnings are calculated as follows:
PCA net sales $575 PCA income from operations $77
Less: Solid Wood net sales (8) Add: Corporate overhead, other expense, net,
PCA Containerboard sales $567 and Solid Wood loss from operations 18
PCA Containerboard EBIT $95
Less: Interest expense, net (8)
PCA Containerboard pre-tax earnings $87
Pre-Tax Earnings ($MM) $ 87 $ 94 $ 58 $ 92 $ 78
Pre-Tax Earnings % 15.3% 7.5% 7.7% 5.3% 6.2%
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Temple Inland 1.9
Weyerhaeuser 2.9
International Paper 3.9
Smurfit Stone 7.0
Temple Inland 43%
Weyerhaeuser 49%
International Paper 63%
Smurfit Stone 68%
Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) / Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted Interest (2) Total Capital
Temple Inland 6.9
Weyerhaeuser 6.7
International Paper 4.5
Smurfit Stone 1.5
(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2006 and both exclude unusual or non-recurring items.
(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings or press releases to eliminate unusual or non-recurring
items.
International Paper 384.0 Temple Inland (63.0) Smurfit Stone 92.0 Weyerhaeuser 1,508.0
Weyerhaeuser’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude the loss from early debt extinguishment of $15.0 million. No other adjustments were made to the other companies’ reported interest.
(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA is calculated as follows:
Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 165.1Add: plant closure and severance costs 1.3
Adjusted EBIT 166.4Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 156.4
Adjusted EBITDA $ 322.8
Source: Company SEC filings and press releases
PCA (3) 2.1
PCA (3) 10.4
PCA 50%
Strong Credit Profile September 2006 Data(1)
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Dividend Yield (1)
(1) Based on share prices as of December 1, 2006 and announced annual dividend rates
4.5%
3.7%
3.0%
2.6%
0.0%0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
PCA WY IP TIN SSCC
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• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence
• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth
- Acquisitions
• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility
Strategy