Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption 2014–2019 - Argentina

May 2015

Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption2014–2019

Gonzalo Valverde

Director Service Providers & Enterprise Argentina, Uruguay y Paraguay.

2© 2015 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

VNI

Service Adoption Forecast

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS


Global IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers

More Devices & Connections

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More VideoViewing

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

By 2019:

2014 201914.2 Billion 24.4 Billion

2014 201920.3 Mbps 42.5 Mbps


2014 201967% of Traffic

80% of Traffic

IP Broadband Growth Drivers


LATAM IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers

More Devices & Connections

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More VideoViewing


By 2019:


2014 20197.2 Mbps 17 Mbps

2014 2019260 Million 371 Million

2014 201961% of Traffic

82% of Traffic

IP Broadband Growth Drivers


Overview


2009-2014 CAGR0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

34.2%Projected in 2010Actual

35.6%


VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

Compound Annual

Growth Rate (CAGR)


Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineGlobal IP Traffic will Increase 3-Fold from 2014─2019

23% CAGR 2014–2019

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000

59,850,764,107.7

72,433,677,711.9

88,442,868,703.8

108,998,838,457.9

135,488,580,765.3

167,972,892,365.9

Exabytes per Month



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000 Chile (23% CAGR)

Argentina (21% CAGR)

Mexico (29% CAGR)

Rest of LATAM (31% CAGR)

Brazil (19% CAGR)

LATAM IP Traffic Growth / RegionsRest of LATAM has the Highest Growth Rate (31%) from 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month


25% CAGR 2014–2019

27%

34%

24%

9%6%


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000 Middle East and Africa (MEA) (44% CAGR)

Latin America (LATAM) (25% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (33% CAGR)

Western Europe (WE) (21% CAGR)

North America (NA) (20% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic Growth / RegionsMEA has the Highest Growth Rate (44%) from 2014–2019APAC will Generate 32% of all IP Traffic by 2019

29.6%

32.4%

10.0%

5.6%

14.7%

Exabytes per Month

7.7%


23% CAGR 2014–2019


Drivers


Global Internet UsersFrom 2.8 Billion in 2014 to 3.9 Billion by 2019 at 6.9% CAGR

North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe

Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific

319 Million by 2019CAGR 1.0%





2.1 Billion by 2019CAGR 8.7%



Global Device and ConnectionsFrom 14.2 Billion in 2014 to 24.4 Billion by 2019 at 12% CAGR



4.3 Billion by 2019CAGR 14%








Global Fixed Broadband Speed GrowthAverage Broadband Speed Will More Than Double from 20.3 Mbps (2014) to 42.5 Mbps (2019)



2.0-fold Growth21.8 to 43.7 Mbps








Global IP Traffic – Increasing Video ViewingBy 2019, Video Will Drive 80% of IP Traffic, Up from 67% in 2014



84% of traffic by 201922% CAGR








Top Trends


VNI Forecast Update, 2014–2019 Top 10 Networking Trends

1 Continued Shifts in Devices/Connections Mix

2 IPv6 Adoption Enables Internet of Everything (IoE) Connectivity

3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential, Consumer Mobile, Business

5 Applications Driving Traffic Growth

6 “Cord-Cutting” Analysis – What’s Really Happening?

7 Impact of Accelerating Speeds on Traffic Growth

8 Mobility (Wi-Fi) Continues to Gain Momentum

9 Traffic Pattern Analysis (Peak vs. Average, Upstream, CDN vs. Metro)

10 Network Performance Drives User Behaviors/Data Plans and Caps

M2M Applications Across Many Industry Verticals Drives IoE Growth


Global Device/Connection Growth by TypeBy 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 40% of Total Connections

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

Other (4.9%,3.6%)

Tablets (3%,4%)

PCs (11%,6%)

TVs (11%,12%)

Non-Smartphones (32%,13%)

Smartphones (15%,19%)

M2M (24%,43%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

12% CAGR 2014–2019


LATAM Device/Connection Growth by TypeBy 2019, M2M Connections Will be More Than 30% of Total Connections

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.0

500,000,000.0

1,000,000,000.0

1,500,000,000.0

2,000,000,000.0

2,500,000,000.0

Other (3.3%,4.1%)

Tablets (3%,5%)

PCs (13%,8%)

TVs (6%,14%)



M2M (18%,31%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

9% CAGR 2014–2019


SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

9,935,743 33,335,708

76,827,402

146,440,003

244,732,995

371,454,498

Connected 4K TV Sets

(M)


Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2019, More than 31% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K


Global Average IP Traffic Per Device2014 2019

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

MBs per Month MBs per Month

1,640 8,419

6,213 14,800

6,258 34,880

23,824 36,311

22,415 50,177

M2M Module

Internet Set-Top or Dongle

Smartphone

Tablet

Laptop / PC

92 433

Ultra High Definition TV*


*Note: Includes IP VoD traffic


LATAM Average IP Traffic Per Device2014 2019

Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

MBs per Month MBs per Month

942 5,312

4,717 11,271

6,608 32,113

21,577 34,056

9,979 11,778

M2M Module


Smartphone

Tablet

Laptop / PC

49 409



*Note: Includes IP VoD traffic


Device IP Traffic Comparison2014 Device IP Traffic Generation Comparisons


Wearable Device

Smartphone

Tablet

M2M Module


Smartphone

Tablet

Laptop / PC


Monthly basic mobile phone

data traffic

1077 X =

283 X =

281 X =

74 X =

4 X =

1013 X =


Global IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 67% of Global IP Traffic

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000

Other (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (1%,3%)

Tablets (4%,19%)

TVs (29%,22%)


PCs (60%,33%)


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share


LATAM IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 59% of LATAM IP Traffic

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

Other (0.05%,0.1%)

Non-Smartphones (0.08%,0.08%)

M2M (0.3%,2%)

Tablets (5%,24%)

TVs (7%,14%)


PCs (83%,41%)


25% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month



Global Internet Traffic by Device TypeBy 2019, Non-PC Devices will Drive 64% of Global Internet Traffic

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

Other (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (1%,3%)

TVs (7%,8%)

Tablets (6%,24%)


PCs (78%,36%)


26% CAGR 2014–2019


Exabytes per Month





3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business









Global IPv6 Enabled Content

US 46%

Australia 49%Brazil 57%

UK 46%

Spain 49%

TodayProjected in 2019

25%

6.6%

Source: Cisco IPv6 Labs





3

4 Service Adoption Trends – Residential , Consumer Mobile, Business









Global M2M Connections / IoE GrowthBy 2019, 1.5 M2M Connections Per Capita Globally

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

Middle East & Africa (26.2% CAGR)

Latin America (21.5% CAGR)

Central & Eastern Europe (28.2% CAGR)

Western Europe (25.8% CAGR)

North America (28.6% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (24.4% CAGR)


26% CAGR 2014–2019

Billions of M2M

Connections



By 2019, M2M modules will be 43% of total global devices and connections and will account for 3% (4.6 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.


Global M2M Traffic GrowthM2M Traffic Will Grow 15-Fold from 2014 to 2019

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

5,000,000,000

Middle East & Africa (94.4% CAGR)

Latin America (85.8% CAGR)

Central & Eastern Europe (86.4% CAGR)

Western Europe (76.3% CAGR)

North America (82.2% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (61.2% CAGR)


71% CAGR 2014–2019

Petabytes per Month



In LATAM, by 2019, M2M modules will be 31% of total devices and connections and will account for 1.9% (0.2 EBs/month) of total IP traffic.


Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By VerticalBy 2019, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Other* (38.2% CAGR)

Energy (31.9% CAGR)

Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR)

Retail (10.5% CAGR)

Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR)

Connected Health (49.4% CAGR)

Connected Car (37.3% CAGR)

Utilities (21% CAGR)

Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR)

Connected Home (23.1% CAGR)


26% CAGR 2014–2019

Billions of M2M

Connections

*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services





3










Global Residential Market, by 2019:62% (2.4 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access.

79% (1.4 billion) TV households will be digital TV households.

There will be 9.4 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 4.9 billion in 2014).

Average household will have 4.3 fixed devices and connections (up from 2.4 in 2014).



Note: By 2019, the global residential fixed Internet population will be 2.4 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion

Global Residential ServicesBy 2019, Time Delayed TV Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption

CAGR 2014–2019

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10% Online Music

Social Network-

ing

Online VideoOnline Gam-ing

VoIP

Digital TVVideo on Demand

Time De-layed TV

2019 % Adoption

Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019


Residential ServicesImplications / Opportunities

Residential Market Dynamics Residential Opportunities for Service Providers

• More / new connections

• Preference for mobility

• Need to monetize increased network demand

• Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections

• Partner and form new eco-systems with OTTPs

• Develop Wi-Fi / mobility plans

• Bolster service portfolio with value-added IoE / M2M applications



Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2019:

There will be 4.9 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population).

There will be 9.8 billion consumer mobile devices and connections.

Average consumer mobile user will have 2.0 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2014).


Note: By 2019, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.9 billion.

Global Consumer Mobile ServicesBy 2019, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Banking & Commerce Will Have Highest Adoption

CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2014–2019

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

MMS

Mobile So-cial Network-

ingMobile Email

Consumer LBS

Mobile Gam-ing

Mobile Bank-ing & Com-

merceMobile Video

Mobile Music

2019 % Adoption


Consumer MobileImplications / Opportunities

Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics

Consumer Mobile Opportunities

for Service Providers

• More / new devices and connections

• Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile

• Demand for Wi-Fi offload and faster speeds

• Need to monetize increased network demand

• Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services

• Shared data plans

• Blend service offers with online services / content

• Developing / monetizing Wi-Fi offers

• Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands)



Global Business Market, by 2019:

There will be 2.2 billion business Internet users

(63% of global work force).

There will be 582 million business mobile users

(17% of global work force).

There will be 5.3 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.8 billion in 2014). Average business internet user will have

2.4 devices and connections

There will be 1.7 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 943 million in 2014).

Average business mobile user will have 2.9 mobile devices and connections





3










2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000 Gaming (0.05% , 0.08% )File Sharing (11.6% , 4.3% )Web/Data (21.3% , 15.5% )IP VoD (23.6% , 16.0% )Internet Video (43.4% , 64.1% )

Global IP Video Traffic GrowthIP Video Will Account for 80% of Global IP Traffic by 2019


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 traffic shares


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000 Gaming (0.03% , 0.05% )File Sharing (16.0% , 5.2% )Web/Data (23.2% , 13.2% )IP VoD (6.0% , 10.3% )Internet Video (54.8% , 71.2% )

LATAM IP Video Traffic GrowthIP Video Will Account for 82% of LATAM IP Traffic by 2019


25% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month



Global Video Users/ SubscribersOnline & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000 Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR)

Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR)

Users/ Subscriptions

(M)


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000 Gaming (0.07% , 0.10% )

File Sharing (16.3% , 5.3% )

Web/Data (24.7% , 17.5% )

Internet Video (58.9% , 77.1% )

Global Internet Video Traffic GrowthInternet Video Will Account for 77 Percent of Global Internet Traffic by 2019



Exabytes per Month

26% CAGR 2014–2019


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000 Gaming (0.03% , 0.06% )

File Sharing (17.9% , 6.0% )

Web/Data (22.5% , 14.1% )

Internet Video (59.6% , 79.9% )

LATAM Internet Video Traffic GrowthInternet Video Will Account for 80 Percent of LATAM Internet Traffic by 2019



Exabytes per Month

24% CAGR 2014–2019


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000 Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.6% , 13.9% )

High Def (HD) Video (38.6% , 53.5% )

Standard Def (SD) Video (60.8% , 32.6% )

Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video GrowthUltra-HD IP Video Will Account for 14% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2019


27% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000


High Def (HD) Video (15.8% , 38.6% )


Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video GrowthUltra-HD IP Video Will Account for 4% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2019


32% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month



2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000


High Def (HD) Video (55.8% , 69.9% )


Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP VoD GrowthUltra-HD IP VoD Will Account for 21% of Global IP VoD Traffic by 2019


14% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month






3










Global Video Users/ SubscribersOnline & Mobile Video Growing Faster Than Digital TV

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

Online Video ( 7.3% CAGR) Digital TV HH ( 4.9% CAGR)

Mobile Video ( 21.0% CAGR)


(M)



Global Internet and TV Users/ SubscribersGlobal Residential Internet Growing; TV Household Penetration Flattening

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

Residential Internet* ( 6.8% CAGR) Total TV HH ( 1.8% CAGR)


(M)


* Residential Internet users include fixed and mobile Internet users





3










Global Average Fixed Broadband SpeedsDoubling in Speeds From 2014-2019

2014 2019

Global Mbps

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

20.3

21.8

21.8

7.2

23.2

22.2

6.1

42.5

43.7

49.1

16.9

48.9

45.3

14.9

Latin America

GLOBAL



LATAM Average Fixed Broadband SpeedsDoubling in Speeds From 2014-2019

2014 2019

Latin America Mbps

BY COUNTRY

Argentina

Brazil

7.2

4.4

8.3

16.9

14.9

18.6

REGION


Chile 13.4 27.8

Mexico 7.3 19.1


Global Average Wi-Fi SpeedsWi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2014-2019

2014 2019

Global Mbps

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific



10.6

14.3

13.0

5.8

10.3

11.7

3.9

18.5

29.0

20.9

8.6

15.6

22.0

4.7

Latin America

GLOBAL



Mobile Network Speeds Increase 2.4X by 2019Average Cell Connection Speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) Will Grow at a 19% CAGR—Reaching Nearly 4.0 Mbps by 2019

2014 2019

Global Mbps

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific



1.7

2.8

2.0

1.4

2.0

1.6

0.6

3.9

6.4

4.7

2.9

3.5

3.7

2.1

Latin America

GLOBAL






3










Surge of Hotspots

Globally, there will be 341 million hotspots by 2018

• By 2018, the US leads in total number of hotspots, followed by China and France

• Europe is the “continent of Wi-Fi” with 50% of the world’s Wi-Fi estate in 2014. By 2018, Asia will lead.

• Today, China has 5 times more commercial Wi-Fi hotspots than any other country

• Community Wi-Fi has been driven by Europe and then North America, but Asia will catch up in 2018

Source: Maravedis Rethink and iPass Inc.


Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

802.112 Mbps Max

Applications Enabled Basic internet

802.11b11 Mbps Max

Applications Enabled Email

802.11b11 Mbps Max

Applications Enabled Rich Media Web

802.11ac3.6 Gbps Max

Applications Enabled High Resolution Video

Wired Complement

802.11n600 Mbps Max

Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video

Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 20-fold from 2014 to 2019


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000 Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (11.4% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.1% CAGR)

17%

Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2019, Two-Thirds of Total IP Traffic Will Be Wireless*

33%

36%

14%


23% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

14,000,000,000 Mobile Data (58.9% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (12.9% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (74.5% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (20.8% CAGR)

14%

LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2019, 77% of Total LATAM IP Traffic Will Be Wireless*

23%

47%

16%


25% CAGR 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000 Mobile Data (57.3% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (9.9% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67.5% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (21.7% CAGR)

Global Internet Traffic by Local Access TechnologyWireless Traffic Dominates Internet Traffic

19%

42%

18%

21%


Exabytes per Month

26% CAGR 2014–2019





3










Global Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficDriven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster than Average Hour

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Average Hour

Busy Hour


Traffic Rate (Tbps)


LATAM Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficDriven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster than Average Hour

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Average Hour

Busy Hour


Traffic Rate (Tbps)


Busy Hour vs. Average HourBusy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher than Average Hour by 2019

Glo

ba

l

AP

AC L

NA

WE

CE

E

ME

A

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.82.6 2.6

3.3

2.9

2.32.6

3.4 3.3 3.2

3.73.6

3.03.1

Axis Title


Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic





3











Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage

Average Traffic per User

2014

16 GB per month

2019

37 GB per month

Future

75 GB per month

Average Traffic per Household

2014

37 GB per month

2019

91 GB per month

Future

150 GB per month



Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage

Average Traffic per User

2014

15 GB per month

2019

34 GB per month

Future

75 GB per month

Average Traffic per Household

2014

44 GB per month

2019

97 GB per month

Future

150 GB per month


Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video ConsumptionVideo Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Video Minutes per Viewer

Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer)

Fixed Broadband Speeds (Mbps)

Indonesia

India

Argentina

Italy

Mexico

Brazil

Australia

Chile

Russia

Canada

U.K.

Japan

Germany

China

New Zealand

France

Spain

U.S.


Video Minutes

per Viewer


Argentina Forecast (2014-2019)

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Argentina IP Traffic

In Argentina, IP traffic will grow 3-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 21%.

In Argentina, IP traffic will reach 1.1 Exabytes per month in 2019, up from 431 Petabytes per month in 2014.

In Argentina's IP networks will carry 37 Petabytes per day in 2019, up from 14 Petabytes per day in 2014.

In Argentina, IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 13.4 Exabytes in 2019, up from an annual run rate of 5.2 Exabytes in 2014

In Argentina, IP traffic will reach 26 Gigabytes per capita in 2019, up from 10 Gigabytes per capita in 2014.

In 2019, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross Argentina's IP networks every 5 hours.


Argentina Fixed Network Speed

In Argentina, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 3.4-fold from 2014 to 2019, from 4.4 Mbps to 15 Mbps.

In Argentina, the average fixed broadband speed grew 7% from 2013 to 2014, from 4.1 Mbps to 4.4 Mbps.

In Argentina, 51% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 5 Mbps in 2019, up from 34% today.

In Argentina, 21% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 10 Mbps in 2019, up from 13% today.

In Argentina, 4.1% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 25 Mbps in 2019, up from 3.0% today.

In Argentina, 2.2% of fixed broadband connections will be faster than 50 Mbps in 2019, up from .5% today.


Argentina Mobile Network Speed

In Argentina, the average mobile connection speed was 323 kbps in 2014.

In Argentina, the average mobile connection speed will grow 4-fold from 2014 to 2019, reaching 1,228 kbps in 2019.

In Argentina, the average smartphone connection speed was 2,743 kbps in 2014.

In Argentina, the average smartphone connection speed will grow 2-fold from 2014 to 2019, reaching 4,674 kbps in 2019.


Argentina VoD

In Argentina, Ultra HD will be 7.4% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, up from 0.0% in 2014 (399.0% CAGR).

In Argentina, HD will be 52.7% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, up from 14.9% in 2014 (75.1% CAGR).

In Argentina, SD will be 39.9% of IP VOD traffic in 2019, compared to 85.1% in 2014 (16.9% CAGR).


Argentina Wi Fi from Mobile Devices

In Argentina, the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will grow 1.9-fold from 2014 to 2019, from 3.7 Mbps to 7 Mbps.

In Argentina, the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices grew 20% from 2013 to 2014, from 3.1 Mbps to 3.7 Mbps.


Argentina Network Conections

Argentina's Fixed/Wired IP traffic grew 17% in 2014.

Argentina's Fixed/Wi-Fi IP traffic grew 32% in 2014.

Argentina's Mobile traffic grew 78% in 2014.

In Argentina, Fixed/Wired IP traffic will grow 2-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 14%

In Argentina, Fixed/Wi-Fi IP traffic will grow 3-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 21%.

In Argentina, Mobile traffic will grow 7-fold from 2014 to 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 49%.


Conclusion


Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2014–2019Key Takeaways / Summary

Global IP TrafficBy 2019, global IP traffic will reach 168 EBs/per month (2.0 ZBs annually).

Global Mobile Traffic By 2019, 14% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks.

Global Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 52% of global IP traffic.

Global IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 80% of the world’s IP traffic will be video.

Global Broadband SpeedsBy 2019, average broadband connection speed will more than double (20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps).

Global Devices/Connections By 2019, there will be 3.2 devices/ connections per capita globally.

Global Internet UsersBy 2019, there will be 3.9 Billion global internet users, representing 51% of the global population.



Cisco VNI LATAM IP Forecast, 2014–2019Key Takeaways / Summary

LATAM IP TrafficBy 2019, LATAM IP traffic will reach 12.9 EBs/per month (155 EBs annually).

LATAM Mobile Traffic By 2019, 16% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks.

LATAM Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 61% of LATAM IP traffic.

LATAM IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 82% of the LATAM IP traffic will be video.

LATAM Broadband SpeedsBy 2019, average broadband connection speed will more than double (7.2 Mbps to 17 Mbps).

LATAM Devices/Connections

By 2019, there will be 2.9 devices/ connections per capita in LATAM.

LATAM Internet UsersBy 2019, there will be 371 Million LATAM internet users, representing 57% of the LATAM population.



Cisco VNI ARG IP Forecast, 2014–2019Key Takeaways / Summary

ARG IP Traffic IP Traffic will grow 3-fold from 2014 to 2019, CAG rate of 21%

ARG Mobile Traffic By 2019, 13% of IP traffic will be carried over cell networks.

ARG Wi-Fi Traffic By 2019, Fixed Wi-Fi will generate 61% of ARG IP traffic.

ARG IP Video Traffic By 2019, over 77% of the ARG IP traffic will be video.

ARG Broadband SpeedsBy 2019, average broadband connection speed will grow 3.4-fold (4.4 Mbps to 15 Mbps).

ARG Devices/ConnectionsBy 2019, there will be 3.7 devices/ connections per capita in LATAM (2.6 in 2014).

ARG Internet UsersBy 2019, there will be 30 Million Argentinian internet users, representing 69% of the ARG population.



Cisco VNI Web Sites

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IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]

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Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption 2014–2019 - Argentina

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Transcript of Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption 2014–2019 - Argentina