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CISB Executive Innovation Management CourseA Triple Helix concept conducted by
Linköping University ● Swedish Armed Forces ● Swedish Industry
A summary of
Scenario Prospecting and Technology Forecasting
Col Mats OlofssonFormer Dep Head of Plans and Policy
Former Chief Scientist
Swedish Armed Forces
Open Seminar –
“Technology forecasting for strategic planning in Defence”
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Agenda
• Introduction
• Scenarios – why and how?
• Methods
• Technology foresight and forecast
• Disruptive Technologies
• Reflections
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After the seminar I offer – for those who want to stay – a
presentation of future technologies, using some more films
showing examples of existing technologies that however are
not yet commonly implemented as capabilities.
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Introduction
To be prepared and better understand the future challenges, an
organization needs to be flexible and work with scenarios and
forecasts.
The actions can be based on assumed changes due to political,
environmental, technological or other circumstances.
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Strategic flexibility
Of major importance is the ability to be flexible, in order to be able to
adopt new situations without being left behind, i.e. to have a strategic
response capability, as defined by Bettis and Hitt (1995). Two major
characteristics were argued as very important:
Robustness (or strategic robustness) defined as ‘the potential for
success under varying future circumstances or scenarios’.
Responsiveness (or strategic responsiveness) defined as the ability “to
rapidly 1) sense change in environment; 2) conceptualize a response to
that change; and 3) reconfigure resources to execute the response”.
The view on Strategic flexibility should be linked to understanding of the
OODA-loop.
These arguments are valid for nations, armed forces as well as companies.
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The OODA loop
The OODA loop was first created by US pilot John Boyd as a way to be
superior in dog-fights with Korean fighter pilots during the Korean war.
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Armed Forces
directional documents
10 years
”Beyond and beside”
current plans
”Beyond and beside”
current political
directives
”Now”
Long Term Planning – aim and role
The aim is to identify changes or trends, both externally and within the Armed Forces, leading to
a potential need to change the strategic directives to the Armed Forces, and in what ways this
should be done.
The role is to identify “crossroads” and study different alternatives and plausible development of
the future, beyond and beside defence policy decisions and current plans.
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Scenarios
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Global “Political” Outlook
Concepts
Concept sketches
Military-strategic trends Character of future conflicts Operational
environments
Concept Shaping
A developed concept is built from assumptions about the international security policy, strategic
and operational ideas, central factors like critical capabilities, units and materiel systems,
decisions taken in “cross-roads” questions, other strategic decisions and cost calculations
(economy).
Concepts are sometimes called idea cards. Concepts are chosen based on the intelligence
analysis performed/collected, with the aim to visualize identified problems and challenges.
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NATO Best Practice Long Term Defence Planning
From ”Handbook on Long Term Defence Planning”, NATO RTO-TR-069, 2003.
1.
2.
3.
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+ 20 years
Now
Structures
Concepts+ 10 years
Shaping of Structures
Structures are (in this context) outlined as sketches. They are used later in the process to
visualize alternative ways to structure the Armed Forces, often in a 10-year perspective.
The suggested structures are shaped based on concepts that have been developed, as well as
on legacy. Further selection is based on the need to illustrate identified problems and challenges.
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Technology Foresight/Forecast
Technology Foresight work is used in different ways
depending on the purpose
• Nations – to adapt and to gain (international) strength
• Armed Forces – as a tool in strategic planning
• Companies – to keep and increase business power
and position itself in the most competitive way
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Technology Foresight/Forecast
What does Technology Foresight mean?
Ben Martin (SPRU, 1995) describes research foresight as:
“The process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-
term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim
of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic
technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits.”
When you do Technology Forecasting, you aim to describe the future
more precise, i.e. which technologies will be available.
In the military environment, the expression Technology Forecast is more
commonly used.
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Technology Forecast – Military Appl.
In order to perform a good Long Term Planning and Scenario
Projection, a military organization needs to foresee trends.
Since the major platforms (tanks, ships, submarines, fighters) are
enormous investments with expected life-times of 20-50 years, a
sudden technology change can make them obsolete too early.
The methods used are varying, some being the same as previously
shown for nations and companies, some more specific. Examples:
• Produce a long term perspective plan, based on intelligent assumptions
about trends that will affect the materiel needs and acquisition process.
• Use interviews or questionnaires to survey the expectations of many
experienced persons in the senior management and/or other experts,
sometimes based on a few pre-defined scenarios.
• Use the results to extract the most interesting ideas and match them to
economic constrains (always present in the Armed Forces).
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To predict the future…
"There are known knowns; there are things we
know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is
to say we know there are some things we do not
know.
But there are also unknown unknowns--the ones
we don't know we don't know."
Donald Rumsfeld
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• Evolutionary – stepwise development
• Revolutionary – dramatic steps in the development
• Disruptive – technologies that completely change
the conditions within an area
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Effects from new technologies
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Strategy for Dual-use
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Military
S&T
Military
Application
Civil
Application
Military
Re-application
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(Gartner, Aug 2015)
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DARPA Strategic Research Areas
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• Rethink Complex Military Systems: make weapons systems more
modular and easily upgraded and improved; assure superiority in
the air, maritime, ground, space and cyber domains; improve
position, navigation and timing without GPS
• Master the Information Explosion: novel approaches to deriving
insights from massive datasets, with powerful big-data tools,
automated cyber defense capabilities and methods to create
fundamentally more secure systems
• Harness Biology as Technology: leverage recent breakthroughs in
neuroscience, immunology, genetics and related fields
• Expand the Technological Frontier: achieve new capabilities by
applying deep mathematics; inventing new chemistries, processes
and materials; and harnessing quantum physics
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Strategic Security Policy Requirements
and the impact of Technologies
What?
What?
What?
Ambitions
(Foreign & National
Security Policy aims)
Which?T
ran
sfo
rma
tion
Po
licy
& p
roce
sse
s ro
ad
ma
ps
What?
How?
How?
How?
Future World
prospects
Threat
appreciation
Scenario’s
Objective
Force or Security
capabilities
Legacy Force
capabilities
Technology
developments
From Rademaker, TNO
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Disruptive Technologies
Any technology intensive industry, as well as a military organization, is
highly affected by rapid transitions, often described as disruptive.
A Disruptive Technology stands for a technological development which
changes the conduct of operations (including the rules of engagement)
significantly within short time and thus alters the long-term goals for
concepts, strategy and planning.
Looking for disruptive technologies that could change the ”art of war” is
a key to good long term planning processes in any Army, Navy or Air
Force. Efficient Technology Intelligence activities are crucial.
Consequently, understanding the same signals is a key to “grow or
disappear” for defence industry actors around the world.
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What is a Disruptive Technology?
Graph from Wikipedia
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Examples of Disruptive Technologies
General
• The light bulb
• Laser technology
• Electronic calculators
• Global positioning (GPS etc.)
With military implications
• The machine gun
• Aeroplanes
• Radar
• Laser
These are just examples,
from one view of what DT
means – you could add
and subtract in the list.
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Disruptive Technologies Forecast
To understand and evaluate the impact of DT to your military
capabilities you need a structured approach.
NATO has introduced a method (from the US Air Force) called
DTAG = Disruptive Technologies Assessment Games.
Sweden, Finland (NATO Partners), Norway and Denmark (NATO
members) have developed the method further to suit their common
needs.
DTAG aims at finding technologies that will influence the early
(conceptual) phase in the LCM (ref. ISO 15288).
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Foreseen results
• List of Technologies
• Maturity
• Timeline
• List of Ideas of Systems
• Maturity
• Timeline
• List of possible disruptive technologies
• Usefulness for tasks
• Ranking
• The total is input for Defence planning
What?
What?
What?
Ambitions
(Foreign Security
Policy aims)
Which?
Tra
nsfo
rmatio
n P
olic
y
& p
rocesses ro
adm
aps
What?
How?
How?
How?
Future World
prospects
Threat
appreciation
Scenario’s
Objective
Force
capabilities
Legacy Force
capabilities
Technology
developments
From Rademaker, TNO26
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Reflections
• It is necessary to understand the impact of technology, to
development of and sudden changes to the needed
military capabilities
• There is a trend towards very advanced new weapons in
parallel with a trend towards simple but efficient new
weapons
Compare for example
– High Power Laser weapons
– Precision Missiles
with
– Quadrocopters
– IED with more advanced trigging mechanisms
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Another look into the future
A combination of new strategies, new ways to perform
warfare and the possibilities offered by technology
development, may result in new threats.
Through automation, remote precision control etc. this
film shows a scaring but not impossible future scenario
(actually already announced by a Russian company),
here we can call it
“THE BluE ConTainErs”
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See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbUU_9bOcnM
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This presentation aimed to give some
insights in scenario thinking and technology
forecasting for a nation’s Armed Forces and
give some examples of methods and the
reasons for performing such activities.
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Thank you for listening!