Circulation and relationship between pollutant sources and atmospheric composition in the Himalayan region

G. CaloriARIANET, Milano and CGRER, U. of Iowa

D. Anfossi, P.Malguzzi, S. Trini CastelliCNR ISAC (Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate)

Mountains, witnesses of global changes. Research in the Himalaya and Karakoram: SHARE-Asia ProjectRome, 16-17 November 2005

Cover

Outline

The case of sulfur – evidences from RAINS-Asia project:

Project within SHARE-Asia / ABC

Outline

focus on Indian sub-continent

& Himalayan area

what happened ?

which sources ?

how year-by-year meteo affects ?

intra-annual phenomena ?

• modelled historical trends

• relationships with sources

• interannual variability

• seasonality

RAINS-Asia Project

RAINS-Asia Project

Sponsored by World Bank, ADB and others

Asian, American and European institutes

Main purpose: integrated assessement modelling (energy projections, control technologies & costs, atmospheric dispersion, impacts)

RAINS-Asia domain & regions

SO2 emi spatial distrib

SO2 emissions, spatial distribution(area and large point sources, year 1990)

6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

Area sources(ton/yr)

18 to 500

500 to 1000

1000 to 5000

5000 to 10000

10000 to 15000

15000 to 30000

30000 to 100000

100000 to 833600

SO2 em issions - RAINS-ASIA 1995 & FSU 1990

1 0

6 0 0 0 0 0

LPS (ton/yr)

Streets D.G., Amann M., Bhatti N., Cofala J., Green C. (1995): Chapter 4: RAINS-Asia: An Assessment Model for Air Pollution in Asia, Phase-I Final Report.

Streets D.G., Tsai N.Y., Waldhoff S.T., Akimoto H., Oka K. (1999): Sulfur dioxide emission trends for Asian countries, 1985-1995. Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia, Interim Report, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria), July 22-23, 1999.

Ryaboshanko A.G., Brukhanov P.A., Gromov S.A., Proshina Y.V., Afinogenova O.G. (1996): Anthropogenic emissions of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen into the atmosphere of the former Soviet Union in 1985 and 1990. Report CM-89, Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University.

Andres R.J., Kasgnoc A.D. (1998): A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 103, pp. 25251-25261.

What happened?

What happened ?

Emission trends 1975-2000

Estimated Asia-wide past trends of SO2 annual emissions1975-2000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Gg

S/y

r

ASIA East Asia

Southeast Asia Indian subcontinent

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Gg

S/y

rP.R. China India

Japan * 10 Malaysia * 100

Rep. of Korea * 10 Kong Kong

Sea lanes

Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G., Calori G., Amann M., Jacobson M. Z., Hansen J., Ueda H. (2002) Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate. Environmental Science and Technology 36(22), 4707-4713.

Modelling framework

Modelling framework

• ATMOS-2 3D Lagrangian puff model with multiple layers• linear S chemistry• dry and wet deposition

• meteorology: NCEP re-analyses

• year-by-year emission inventory: diffuse and large point sources

• time frame: 1990-1998 year-by-year, 1975-2000 every 5th year

CGRER – Centre for Global and Regional Environmental Research (Carmichael et al.)

Monthly SOx fields

Calculated monthly S fields

Examples: years 1990 - 95(using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

SO2 concentration SO4 concentration

Modelled historical trends (1)

Modelled historical trends (1)

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

Lon

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Lat

Total sulfur depositions - Year 2000

1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 5 0 0

3 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

m g(S) / m 2 / yr

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

L o n

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Lat

-50

0

50

100

200

300

10000

%

Total S depositions: 1975-2000 % change

Em issions as of 7.3.2000

Total S deposition for year 2000Relative change of annual total S dep.

in 1975-2000 period

(both computed using year-specific emissions and meteorology)

Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G., Calori G., Amann M., Jacobson M. Z., Hansen J., Ueda H. (2002) Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate. Environmental Science and Technology 36(22), 4707-4713.

Modelled historical trends (2)

Modelled historical trends (2)

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

Lon

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Lat

1975 - 80

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

L o n

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Lat

1985 - 90

Relative changes of annual total S deposition due to changes in S-emissions only

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

10000

% change

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0

Lon

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Lat

1995 - 2000

(computed using estimated year-specific S-emissions but 1990 meteorology)

Which sources?

Which sources ?

Country-to-country S-R relationships

Country-to-country S-R relationships

Calculated annual total S deposition for selected countries and % contributions of the contributing source areas - 1975 - 2000

(using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

Japan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

To

tal d

ep

osi

tion

(G

g S

/yr)

Republic of Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

To

tal d

ep

osi

tion

(G

g S

/yr)

Malaysia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YearT

ota

l de

po

sitio

n (

Gg

S/y

r)

Hong Kong, China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Tot

al d

epos

ition

(Gg

S/y

r)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1975 1980

Volcanoes Sea lanes Taiwan

Hong Kong Malaysia Singapore

Indonesia P.R. Korea Rep. of Korea

Japan P.R. China

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Con

trib

utio

n

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Tot

al d

ep.

(Gg

S/y

r)

INDI - PUNJ

PAKI - PUNJ

INDI - WHIM

PAKI - NMWP

INDI - UTPRINDI - HARY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Con

trib

utio

n

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Tot

al d

ep.

(Gg

S/y

r)

INDI - PUNJ

PAKI - PUNJ

INDI - UTPR

INDI - BIHA

INDI - BENG

NEPA

INDI - HARY

graph S-R rel for Indian subcontinent

Indian subcontinent: trends and S-R relationships

Calculated annual total S deposition for selected regions/countries and % contributions of the contributing source areas - 1975 - 2000

(using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

India, “W Himalaya” Nepal

UttarPradesh

India, “E Himalaya”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Con

trib

utio

n

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000T

otal

dep

. (G

g S

/yr)

INDI - UTPR

INDI - MAPR

INDI - BIHA INDI - HARYINDI - PUNJ

INDI - DELHINDI - RAJA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Con

trib

utio

n

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Tot

al d

ep.

(Gg

S/y

r)

INDI - EHIM

INDI - UTPR

INDI - BIHA

INDI - BENG

BANG

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Con

trib

utio

n

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Tot

al d

ep.

(Gg

S/y

r)

INDI - BENG

INDI - UTPR

INDI - BIHA

INDI - EHIM

BANG

Bhutan

maps of S-R rel for Indian subcontinent (1)

S-R relationships for Indian subcontinent

% of deposition from the contributing source areas(avg. 1985 - 1997 using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

India, “W Himalaya”Nepal

Uttar Pradesh

maps of S-R rel for Indian subcontinent (2)

S-R relationships for Indian subcontinent

% of deposition from the contributing source areas(avg. 1985 - 1997 using year-specific emissions and meteorologies)

Bhutan India, “E Himalaya”

How year-by-year meteo affects?

How year-by-year meteorology affects ?

Interannual variability (1)

Interannual variability (1)

Year-by-year relative deviation of country total depositions (normalized to 1990 emissions levels)

Brunei

Calori G., Carmichael G.R., Street D., Thongboonchoo N., Guttikunda S.K. (2001) Interannual variability in sulfur deposition in Asia. J. of Global Environment Engineering 7, 1-6.

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Vietnam

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Burma

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Indonesia

Laos

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Malaysia Singapore

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Thailand

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Cambodia

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Bangladesh

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Bhutan

India

Nepal

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Philippines

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 9785 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

China

Hong Kong

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

J apan

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

North Korea

South Korea

Mongolia

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Year

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

-30%

-20%

-10%0%

10%

20%

30%

85 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

Interannual variability (2)

Interannual variability (2)

Standard dev. of yearly total deposition(calculated with 1990 emission levels,

normalized respect to the average of 1985-97 values)

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Normalized sigma of yearly total S depositions (1990 emission levels)

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

%6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

Normalized sigma of yearly total precipitations

02468101214161820222426283032343638401000

%

Standard dev. of yearly total precipitation(normalized with respect to the average of 1985-97 values)

Intra-annual phenomena?

Intra-annual phenomena ?

Seasonality: 1 - Nepal

Seasonality (1)

Nepal(constant – 1990 – emissions and year-specific meteorologies)

India -> Nepal

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

Pakistan -> Nepal

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

Nepal -> Nepal

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

SPR SUM FAL WIN

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

Guttikunda S.K., Thongboonchoo N., Arndt R.L., Calori G., Carmichael G.R., Streets D.G. (2001) Sulfur deposition in Asia: seasonal behavior and contributions from various energy sectors. Water Air and Soil Pollution 131 (1/4), 383-406.

South Asian Monsoonal flow

Summer wind flow Winter wind flow

Source: Aguado, E and Burt, J.E., Understanding Weather and Climate, 3rd ed., Pearson Education, Inc., New Jersey, 2004.

South Asian Monsoonal flow

Seasonality: 2 - Bhutan

Seasonality (2)

Bhutan(constant – 1990 – emissions and year-specific meteorologies)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

SPR SUM FAL WIN

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

India -> Bhutan

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

Pakistan -> Bhutan

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

Nepal -> Bhutan

00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.08

SPR SUM FAL WIN

Tota

l S d

ep (G

g)

Proposal: contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC

Contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC

Purpose: investigate source-receptor relationships at hi res. (e.g. 20 km) & mountain-plain exchange mechanisms in different seasons

Project proposal:

Study of circulation and relationships between pollutant sources and atmospheric composition in the Himalayan area

CNR-ISAC/TO - Domenico Anfossi et al.

CNR-ISAC/BO - Piero Malguzzi et al.

ARIANET Milano - Giuseppe Calori et al.

Tools_ ISAC/TO

Modelling tools (1)

Chernobyl

TRAJETN forward/backward trajectories MILORD Lagrangian Particle Stochastic model

Tools_ ISAC/BO

Modelling tools (2)

BOLAM limited area meteorological model

• Primitive equations in sigma vertical coordinates with split-explicit time scheme

• Radiation: infrared and solar, interacting with clouds (Ritter & Geleyn and ECMWF RRTM - Morcrette)

• Vertical diffusion (surface layer and PBL parameterization) based on E-l closure of the turbulent stresses

• Surface thermal and water balance including soil and vegetation scheme (in coop. with the Hydrometeorological Institute of Russia – Pressman, 2002)

• Explicit microphysical scheme with 5 hydrometeors (cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, hail/graupel), modified from Schultz (1995) and Drofa (2001)

• Convective parameterization: Emanuel or Kain-Fritsch scheme

Western Pacific Typhoon “Flo”COMPARE Project (WMO-WGNE)(Nagata et al, J. Met. Soc. Japan, 2001)

BOLAM

Observed

Tools_ ARIANET

Modelling tools (3)

Isosurfaces at 5,10,20 ug/m3

FARM 3D CTM

Derived from STEM (Carmichael et al.)

SAPRC90/99 mechanismAerosols: Binkowsky modal module

PM10 concentrations computed with RAMS+FARM CTM

for RAINS-Italy Projects

The website is located at http://nas.cgrer.uiowa.edu/ABC/abc-90x60-current/pmenu.html. It provided real time forecasts for up to 4 days of relevant meteorological parameters, air-mass tracers indicating the source and age of a given air-mass and three dimensional concentration profiles of aerosols, radicals and other trace gases. The publicly available website was set up such that it was very user friendly and scientists were able to get 4-dimensional animated forecasts at the click of a mouse button.

STEM&CFORS forecast (ABC_APMEX Intensive, fall 2004)

STEM & CFORS 80 km forecasts (CGRER)

ABC APMEX Intensive (October / November 2004)

Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

Post-Monsoon EXperiment

STEM BC emissions

Streets, D.G., Bond, T.C., Carmichael, G.R., Fernandes, S.D., Fu, Q., Klimont, H.Z., Nelson, S.M., Tsai, N.Y., Wang, M.Q., Woo, J.H., Yarber, K.F., An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000, J. Geophysical Research. 108 (D21), 8809, (2003), 1-23. 

Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

STEM forecasts

Sulfate concentration

STEM model forecasts

Source-related air mass tracers

Courtesy of B. Adhikary and G. Carmichael

Proposal: contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC

Contribution to SHARE-Asia / ABC

CNR/ISAC-ARIANET project outline:

• focus on events revealed by (high altitude) monitoring network and model forecasts (e.g. STEM & CFORS 80 km)

• sources screening with back-trajectories

• 3D meteo and chemical-transport modelling of gases and aerosols

• analysis of source-receptor relationships and mechanisms

Collaboration with CGRER

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