Friday, February 10, 2017FACEBOOK | TWITTER | LINKEDIN

Today's Insight

Trump and the New Map of the Middle East | Fritz Lodge, The Cipher BriefThe Middle East that the Trump Administration must now come to grips with is not the oneBarack Obama envisioned leaving his successor when he took office eight years ago.

Expert Commentary

Change Has Not Come to the Middle East | Michael Singh, Managing Director,Washington Institute for Near East PolicyThe real story in the Middle East is not how much things have changed, but – when onedigs a bit deeper – how little. The economic and political stagnation that birthed the 2011uprisings has, if anything, worsened. Youth unemployment in the Arab world stood at 29percent in 2013, more than double the global average of 13 percent and higher than anyother region of the world.

The Mideast's Front Burner Issues | Henri Barkey, Director, Middle East Program,Wilson CenterThe region went through maelstrom developments during the Obama Administration.Some of these were put into motion by the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. Others, suchas the Arab Spring, were the direct result of corrupt and brittle authoritarian regimes nolonger capable of responding to their citizens’ aspirations and needs.

Today's Column: State of Play

Fix What Is Broken: Bringing Technocracy to America | Parag Khanna,Author, Technocracy and Connectography"In other countries, civil service members get paid better, they have more careerprogression, and they are not as subject to leadership by political appointees as civilservants are here. You need to provide that kind of compensation and growth to attract thebest employees. And this is not just about attracting high­flyers from the private sector, thisis about attracting employees who will stay for the long haul and really learn how thesystem works."

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CIPHERBRIEF

Today's Insight

Friday, February 10,2017FACEBOOK I TWITTER I LINKEDIN

Trump and the New Map of the Middle East I Fritz Lodge, The Cipher BriefThe Middle East that the Trump Administration must now come to grips with is not the oneBarack Obama envisioned leaving his successor when he took office eight years ago.

Expert Commentary

Change Has Not Come to the Middle East I Michael Singh, Managing Director,Washington Institute for Near East PolicyThe real story in the Middle East is not how much things have changed, but — when onedigs a bit deeper— how little. The economic and political stagnation that birthed the 2011uprisings has, if anything, worsened. Youth unemployment in the Arab world stood at 29percent in 2013, more than double the global average of 13 percent and higher than anyother region of the world.

The Mideast's Front Burner Issues I Henri Barkey, Director, Middle East Program,Wilson CenterThe region went through maelstrom developments during the Obama Administration.Some of these were put into motion by the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. Others, suchas the Arab Spring, were the direct result of corrupt and brittle authoritarian regimes nolonger capable of responding to their citizens' aspirations and needs.

Today's Column: State of PlayFix What Is Broken: Bringing Technocracy to America I Parag Khanna,Author, Technocracy and Connectography"In other countries, civil service members get paid better, they have more careerprogression, and they are not as subject to leadership by political appointees as civilservants are here. You need to provide that kind of compensation and growth to attract thebest employees. And this is not just about attracting high-flyers from the private sector, thisis about attracting employees who will stay for the long haul and really learn how thesystem works."

Podcasts***The Cipher Brief is now on iTunes! You can subscribe to our podcasts to get newepisodes as soon as they're released. Click here to visit us on iTunes

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Get a daily rundown of the top security stories and previews of the exclusive contentavailable on The Cipher Brief.Listen now

15 MinutesThis week, The Cipher Brief's Executive Producer and Reporter Leone Lakhanispeaks to Haras Rafiq, CEO of Quilliam, a UK­based organization whose mission isto counter extremism, in every form. Much of its work surrounds counter­messagingIslamism by creating alternatives and empowering moderate Islamic voices. Leonespoke to Haras about how Quilliam conveys its message.Listen to 15 Minutes with Quilliam's Haras Rafiq on Countering Extremism

Don't Miss On The Cipher Brief

Top Commander Calls for More Troops in Afghanistan, Warns AboutRussia | Mackenzie Weinger, TCBThe top U.S. commander in Afghanistan wants several thousand more troops from theU.S. and its allies to help break the “stalemate” in the 15 year­old war, which he toldmembers of Congress has lately seen increased Russian involvement to bolster theTaliban and undermine the U.S. and NATO.

The Canada­U.S. Defence Relationship: What Next? | Ferry de Kerckhove,Distinguished Research Fellow, Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs InstituteCanadians resent being told that they are a free­rider on defence spending. Comparisonson defence spending often ignore qualitative differences or things like purchasing paritiesand currencies distortions. Yet, although our forces are second to none when engaged inan expeditionary operation, our paltry .95 percent of GDP spending on defence barelymeets the Nils Orvik criteria of “defence against help” – that is preventing the U.S. fromtaking over our defence completely.

New Threat Landscape in Southeast Asia | Rohan Gunaratna, Professor and Head,International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Nanyang TechnologicalUniversitySoutheast Asia is emerging as an ISIS battlefield, and security threats in the region willaccelerate and grow with the group’s global expansion – with an ISIS­centric threatlandscape supplanting an al Qaeda­centric one.

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Get a daily rundown of the top security stories and previews of the exclusive contentavailable on The Cipher Brieflisten now

15 MinutesThis week, The Cipher Briefs Executive Producer and Reporter Leone Lakhanispeaks to Haras Rafiq, CEO of Quilliam, a UK-based organization whose mission isto counter extremism, in every form. Much of its work surrounds counter-messagingIslamism by creating alternatives and empowering moderate Islamic voices. Leonespoke to Haras about how Quilliam conveys its message.Listen to 15 Minutes with Quilliam's Haras Rafiq on Countering Extremism

Don't Miss On The Cipher BriefTop Commander Calls for More Troops in Afghanistan, Warns AboutRussia I Mackenzie Weinger, TCBThe top U.S. commander in Afghanistan wants several thousand more troops from theU.S. and its allies to help break the "stalemate" in the 15 year-old war, which he toldmembers of Congress has lately seen increased Russian involvement to bolster theTaliban and undermine the U.S. and NATO.

The Canada-U.S. Defence Relationship: What Next? I Ferry de Kerckhove,Distinguished Research Fellow, Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs InstituteCanadians resent being told that they are a free-rider on defence spending. Comparisonson defence spending often ignore qualitative differences or things like purchasing paritiesand currencies distortions. Yet, although our forces are second to none when engaged inan expeditionary operation, our paltry .95 percent of GDP spending on defence barelymeets the Nils Orvik criteria of "defence against help" — that is preventing the U.S. fromtaking over our defence completely.

New Threat Landscape in Southeast Asia I Rohan Gunaratna, Professor and Head,International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Nanyang TechnologicalUniversitySoutheast Asia is emerging as an ISIS battlefield, and security threats in the region willaccelerate and grow with the group's global expansion — with an ISIS-centric threatlandscape supplanting an al Qaeda-centric one.

The Cipher Brief is hiring.

Are you passionate about providing users with a clean, sophisticated experience?Help us continue to improve The Cipher Brief as we grow and expand.

Featured Job: Web Design AssociateWere looking for an experienced and motivated Web Design Associate to createclean and sophisticated user experiences. The ideal candidate should have an eyefor artful design and possess superior user interface design skills. Find out more

The Cipher Take

Trump Calls Putin, Criticizes New START TreatyAccording to a Reuters report, President Donald Trump expressed his disapproval of the Obama­era denuclearization deal New START during his first call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.The details of the call were given to Reuters by two current officials and one former official familiarwith the conversation in question. It was also reported that when Putin asked if the U.S. would beinterested in renewing the treaty, Trump had to pause the call to verify with a staff member whatthe New START Treaty was.

The Cipher Take: The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 as a replacement for the START Treaty that ended in2009. At the time, it had largely bipartisan support, though some notable conservatives and policyorganizations warned it could give Russia an unfair advantage, particularly regarding tacticalnuclear devices. The treaty holds each country to the same limits on deployed warheads andlaunchers (bombers, missiles, and submarines), but it does not place a limit on undeployedwarheads ­­ giving Russia a numerical edge on paper. However, most U.S. military experts wouldagree: given the hypothetical opportunity to trade nuclear forces with Russia, they would stick withthe U.S. arsenal’s quality over quantity advantage.

Russian Bombs Kill 3 Turkish SoldiersAir strikes launched by Russian jets killed three Turkish soldiers “in the region of the EuphratesShield Operation in Syria” on Thursday, according to a statement from the Turkish military.Kremlin spokesmen say that Russian President Vladimir Putin called Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan to express his condolences and call for better coordination between the Russianand Turkish militaries. This is one of the first military mishaps between Russia and Turkey sincethe downing of a Russian jet by Turkish forces in 2015. American Vice President Mike Pence alsopassed on his condolences to Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Thursday, just as CIADirector Mike Pompeo arrived in Ankara to discuss U.S. cooperation with Turkey in the fightagainst ISIS.

The Cipher Take: As Syrian government and Turkish­backed “Operation Euphrates Shield” rebel forces race eachother to capture the strategic city of Al Bab in Syria, this kind of accident is hardly surprising.However, Putin and Erdogan have worked closely in recent months to enforce a countrywideceasefire in Syria and broker peace talks in Kazakhstan, which ended with relative success.Similar to their reaction to the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara in December,the two leaders will be reluctant to risk the recent thaw in relations, and Putin’s swift call toexpress his condolences to Erdogan would seem to bear that out. Instead, this incident may leadto closer military cooperation between Russia and Turkey as they tighten the vice on ISIS forcesisolated in Al Bab.

U.S. General Says More Troops Needed in AfghanistanAppearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the top U.S. commander inAfghanistan, General John Nicholson, said that he required thousands more U.S. andinternational troops in order to break an ongoing stalemate in the war against the Taliban.Nicholson stated that the U.S. still maintains a large enough force to conduct counterterrorismoperations, but lacks the personnel necessary to train the Afghan army. Currently, the U.S. retainsa force of 8,400 troops throughout Afghanistan.

The Cipher Take: Despite receiving U.S. weapons and training from U.S. troops, Afghan security forces havestruggled to keep the Taliban and other militant forces, including ISIS, at bay throughout thecountry. Currently, the amount of Taliban controlled territory in Afghanistan is at its highest levelsince 2001. To date, the Trump Administration has generally shied away from outlining a vision forAfghanistan, but when U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was asked “What are the U.S.

The Cipher TakeTrump Calls Putin, Criticizes New START TreatyAccording to a Reuters report, President Donald Trump expressed his disapproval of the Obama-era denuclearization deal New START during his first call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.The details of the call were given to Reuters by two current officials and one former official familiarwith the conversation in question. It was also reported that when Putin asked if the U.S. would beinterested in renewing the treaty, Trump had to pause the call to verify with a staff member whatthe New START Treaty was.

The Cipher Take:The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 as a replacement for the START Treaty that ended in2009. At the time, it had largely bipartisan support, though some notable conservatives and policyorganizations warned it could give Russia an unfair advantage, particularly regarding tacticalnuclear devices. The treaty holds each country to the same limits on deployed warheads andlaunchers (bombers, missiles, and submarines), but it does not place a limit on undeployedwarheads -- giving Russia a numerical edge on paper. However, most U.S. military experts wouldagree: given the hypothetical opportunity to trade nuclear forces with Russia, they would stick withthe U.S. arsenal's quality over quantity advantage.

Russian Bombs Kill 3 Turkish SoldiersAir strikes launched by Russian jets killed three Turkish soldiers "in the region of the EuphratesShield Operation in Syria" on Thursday, according to a statement from the Turkish military.Kremlin spokesmen say that Russian President Vladimir Putin called Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan to express his condolences and call for better coordination between the Russianand Turkish militaries. This is one of the first military mishaps between Russia and Turkey sincethe downing of a Russian jet by Turkish forces in 2015. American Vice President Mike Pence alsopassed on his condolences to Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Thursday, just as CIADirector Mike Pompeo arrived in Ankara to discuss U.S. cooperation with Turkey in the fightagainst ISIS.

The Cipher Take:As Syrian government and Turkish-backed "Operation Euphrates Shield" rebel forces race eachother to capture the strategic city of Al Bab in Syria, this kind of accident is hardly surprising.However, Putin and Erdogan have worked closely in recent months to enforce a countrywideceasefire in Syria and broker peace talks in Kazakhstan, which ended with relative success.Similar to their reaction to the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara in December,the two leaders will be reluctant to risk the recent thaw in relations, and Putin's swift call toexpress his condolences to Erdogan would seem to bear that out. Instead, this incident may leadto closer military cooperation between Russia and Turkey as they tighten the vice on ISIS forcesisolated in Al Bab.

U.S. General Says More Troops Needed in AfghanistanAppearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the top U.S. commander inAfghanistan, General John Nicholson, said that he required thousands more U.S. andinternational troops in order to break an ongoing stalemate in the war against the Taliban.Nicholson stated that the U.S. still maintains a large enough force to conduct counterterrorismoperations, but lacks the personnel necessary to train the Afghan army. Currently, the U.S. retainsa force of 8,400 troops throughout Afghanistan.

The Cipher Take:Despite receiving U.S. weapons and training from U.S. troops, Afghan security forces havestruggled to keep the Taliban and other militant forces, including ISIS, at bay throughout thecountry. Currently, the amount of Taliban controlled territory in Afghanistan is at its highest levelsince 2001. To date, the Trump Administration has generally shied away from outlining a vision forAfghanistan, but when U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was asked "What are the U.S.

national security interests and objectives in Afghanistan, and what strategy do you recommend toachieve them?” during his Senate confirmation hearing, his response was clear: “We allremember what it felt like on 9/11 and 9/12. We should do what is necessary to prevent such anattack from occurring again.”

U.S. Killed 11 Al Qaeda Militants in Syria This MonthTwo U.S. airstrikes carried out this month near Syria’s northwestern Idlib Province reportedlykilled 11 members of al Qaeda, including Abu Hani al­Masri. Masri, a key al Qaeda leader, isbelieved to have established al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan during the late 1980s and1990s and had developed close ties to former and current al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Ladenand Ayman al Zawahiri.

The Cipher Take: Although al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate “split” from the al Qaeda network this summer,counterterrorism experts have dismissed the idea that a real separation occurred, insteadconcluding that the purpose of the move was to enable al Qaeda’s Syrian branch, now known asJabhat Fateh al­Sham (JFS), to procure new partnerships and additional sources of financingfrom individuals or organizations that were hesitant to support an overt al Qaeda associate. Sincethe divide, JFS has aligned with an increasing number of rebel militias in Syria, positioning itself tobecome an influential faction in Syrian politics down the road.

New Analysis on China's Militarization of the South China SeaOn Wednesday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI)released its latest analysis ofsatellite imagery showing China’s militarization of islands in the South China Sea. The imageryshows that China has made progress on building ports, helicopter pads, airplane hangars andrunways, as well as air defense systems on several of the 20 locations it claims in the ParacelIslands. The imagery also shows construction materials on many of the other, less developedislands, suggesting that the construction efforts will expand.

The Cipher Take:In the South China Sea, China has territorial claims in three different island groups. TheParacels have been in China’s possession the longest and are closest to the Chinese mainland.For these reasons, they often receive less international attention than Chinese claims to theSpratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Those claims are more worrisome given China’s rapidbuildup since 2013 on the Spratlys and the proximity of Scarborough Shoal to a Filipino militarybase used by the United States. But while the Paracels often receive less attention, AMTI notesthat the Paracel installations have been a bellwether for later construction on the Spratlys. So far,the Trump administration has made clear it does not want the militarization to spread, but it hassent mixed signals on how far it is willing to go to stop it. The Cipher Brief’s February GeorgetownSalon Series event will focus on the global implications of China's island­building campaign in theSouth China Sea, including expert commentary from Admiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of NavalOperations for the U.S. Navy and Cipher Brief Network Member, as well as Greg Poling, theDirector of the AMTI.

Greece Struggles to Put Together BailoutOn Thursday, Greek Alternative Foreign Minister for EU Affairs, George Katrougalos, toldreporters that he was “optimistic that we could have a [bailout] agreement before the Eurogroupon February 20.” However, a recent IMF report stated that Greek debt could reach “explosiveproportions” of above 200 percent of GDP or more without debt relief from Eurozone countries’deeper spending cuts and reforms. That grim prognosis has threatened the IMF’s participation inthis latest Greek bailout, especially after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble seemedto suggest that Germany stood firmly against any debt relief for Athens on Wednesday.

The Cipher Take:The IMF has long called for Eurozone countries to provide significant debt relief to Greece witheither large infusions of cash or by extending the maturities on Greek loans. The current severityof austerity policies – deep reforms and budget cuts – levied on Greece by EU creditors is

national security interests and objectives in Afghanistan, and what strategy do you recommend toachieve them?" during his Senate confirmation hearing, his response was clear: "We allremember what it felt like on 9/11 and 9/12. We should do what is necessary to prevent such anattack from occurring again."

U.S. Killed 11 Al Qaeda Militants in Syria This MonthTwo U.S. airstrikes carried out this month near Syria's northwestern Idlib Province reportedlykilled 11 members of al Qaeda, including Abu Hani al-Masri. Masri, a key al Qaeda leader, isbelieved to have established al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan during the late 1980s and1990s and had developed close ties to former and current al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Ladenand Ayman al Zawahiri.

The Cipher Take:Although al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate "split" from the al Qaeda network this summer,counterterrorism experts have dismissed the idea that a real separation occurred, insteadconcluding that the purpose of the move was to enable al Qaeda's Syrian branch, now known asJabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), to procure new partnerships and additional sources of financingfrom individuals or organizations that were hesitant to support an overt al Qaeda associate. Sincethe divide, JFS has aligned with an increasing number of rebel militias in Syria, positioning itself tobecome an influential faction in Syrian politics down the road.

New Analysis on China's Militarization of the South China SeaOn Wednesday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI)released its latest analysis ofsatellite imagery showing China's militarization of islands in the South China Sea. The imageryshows that China has made progress on building ports, helicopter pads, airplane hangars andrunways, as well as air defense systems on several of the 20 locations it claims in the ParacelIslands. The imagery also shows construction materials on many of the other, less developedislands, suggesting that the construction efforts will expand.

The Cipher Take:In the South China Sea, China has territorial claims in three different island groups. TheParacels have been in China's possession the longest and are closest to the Chinese mainland.For these reasons, they often receive less international attention than Chinese claims to theSpratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Those claims are more worrisome given China's rapidbuildup since 2013 on the Spratlys and the proximity of Scarborough Shoal to a Filipino militarybase used by the United States. But while the Paracels often receive less attention, AMTI notesthat the Paracel installations have been a bellwether for later construction on the Spratlys. So far,the Trump administration has made clear it does not want the militarization to spread, but it hassent mixed signals on how far it is willing to go to stop it. The Cipher Brief's February GeorgetownSalon Series event will focus on the global implications of China's island-building campaign in theSouth China Sea, including expert commentary from Admiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of NavalOperations for the U.S. Navy and Cipher Brief Network Member, as well as Greg Poling, theDirector of the AMTI.

Greece Struggles to Put Together BailoutOn Thursday, Greek Alternative Foreign Minister for EU Affairs, George Katrougalos, toldreporters that he was "optimistic that we could have a [bailout] agreement before the Eurogroupon February 20." However, a recent IMF report stated that Greek debt could reach "explosiveproportions" of above 200 percent of GDP or more without debt relief from Eurozone countries'deeper spending cuts and reforms. That grim prognosis has threatened the IMF's participation inthis latest Greek bailout, especially after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble seemedto suggest that Germany stood firmly against any debt relief for Athens on Wednesday.

The Cipher Take:The IMF has long called for Eurozone countries to provide significant debt relief to Greece witheither large infusions of cash or by extending the maturities on Greek loans. The current severityof austerity policies — deep reforms and budget cuts — levied on Greece by EU creditors is

unsustainable, they say, and will continue to produce ballooning debt in the future. Germany,however, has consistently argued against significant debt relief, and says that Athens shouldmaintain a primary budget surplus of three and a half percent for ten years, which would wipe outthe need for debt relief. In his statement on Thursday, Katrougalos claimed that such demandswere “asking the impossible” of Greece. Greece may squeak out another bailout, as it has forroughly ten years now, but if the EU wants to prevent such crises from arising every year, theyshould consider offering Athens the long­term debt relief it needs.

Indictment of NSA Contractor Shows Breach Affected Other AgenciesOn Wednesday, former NSA contractor Harold Martin III was indictedfor willfully retaining recordspertaining to national defense. But beyond his alleged hoarding of an enormous 50 terabytesworth of data, the indictment itself revealed that the security breach affected more than just theNSA, including the Department of Defense, U.S. Cyber Command, the National ReconnaissanceOffice (NRO), and the CIA. Material stolen from the NSA included a 2014 report on foreign cyberintrusion techniques, a 2009 draft of the U.S. Signals Intelligence Directive outlining defensivecomputer network operations, extremely sensitive planning and operations information pertainingto global terrorists, and even email correspondence from the agency dating back to 1996. Relatedto U.S. Cyber Command, Martin is accused of stealing documents dating from 2007 to 2016,including some discussing capabilities gaps and detailing specific operations. The NRO isimpacted by stolen information on the launch of an intelligence gathering satellite, and the CIA bya 2008 document related to foreign intelligence collection sources and methods.

The Cipher Take:While this is new information, it should come as no surprise that Martin was able to access dataon a variety of U.S. military and intelligence organizations due to intelligence sharing mechanismsand a 20­year career in the industry. Since the above documents are unlikely to meet the totalamount of 50 terabytes stolen, it is possible that either the majority of the information taken byMartin was not classified, or that the court system did not want to reveal more secrets thannecessary to indict him. It is doubtful that the documents mentioned are the most highly classifieddocuments in the stolen collection. The indictment does not mention the Shadow Brokers, ahacker group that publically released NSA hacking tools thought to be within Martin’s stolen cacheof data. The group continues to communicate online while dumping more files, but it remainsunclear if the files were in fact from Martin – and if they were, whether they were purchased fromMartin or if he was hacked himself.

Cyber Actors Found Conducting Stealthy Breaches Across 40 CountriesKaspersky Lab has discovered a series of breaches using widely available penetration­testingtools, in which hackers inject malicious code into a computer’s memory – rather than it’s harddrive ­ where it disappears each time the system reboots. The method has been found targetingover 140 enterprise networks ranging from banks, telecommunication companies, andgovernment organizations across 40 countries, primarily targeting the United States, France,Ecuador, Kenya, the UK and Russia.

The Cipher Take:Breaches already go undetected for an average of over 200 days, but the methods deployed inthis case make the breach even stealthier. The use of common penetration­testing, also known asred teaming, hides the injection of malware by making it look legitimate. But the added feature ofinjecting the malware into the computer’s memory—where it is only accessible by inspecting thecomputer’s remote access memory (RAM), the network itself, and the registry—makes the breacheven more difficult to detect. Due to the malware being removed upon reboot and the use of opensource software, forensic analysis to determine who is behind the breach will be difficult, thoughKaspersky believes the tactics could point to groups called the Carbanak gang and GCMAN.Either way, the multi­step and stealthy intrusion tactics deployed as well as the scope of thebreaches suggest skilled attackers—either an organized criminal group or a nation­state.

unsustainable, they say, and will continue to produce ballooning debt in the future. Germany,however, has consistently argued against significant debt relief, and says that Athens shouldmaintain a primary budget surplus of three and a half percent for ten years, which would wipe outthe need for debt relief. In his statement on Thursday, Katrougalos claimed that such demandswere "asking the impossible" of Greece. Greece may squeak out another bailout, as it has forroughly ten years now, but if the EU wants to prevent such crises from arising every year, theyshould consider offering Athens the long-term debt relief it needs.

Indictment of NSA Contractor Shows Breach Affected Other AgenciesOn Wednesday, former NSA contractor Harold Martin III was indictedfor willfully retaining recordspertaining to national defense. But beyond his alleged hoarding of an enormous 50 terabytesworth of data, the indictment itself revealed that the security breach affected more than just theNSA, including the Department of Defense, U.S. Cyber Command, the National ReconnaissanceOffice (NRO), and the CIA. Material stolen from the NSA included a 2014 report on foreign cyberintrusion techniques, a 2009 draft of the U.S. Signals Intelligence Directive outlining defensivecomputer network operations, extremely sensitive planning and operations information pertainingto global terrorists, and even email correspondence from the agency dating back to 1996. Relatedto U.S. Cyber Command, Martin is accused of stealing documents dating from 2007 to 2016,including some discussing capabilities gaps and detailing specific operations. The NRO isimpacted by stolen information on the launch of an intelligence gathering satellite, and the CIA bya 2008 document related to foreign intelligence collection sources and methods.

The Cipher Take:While this is new information, it should come as no surprise that Martin was able to access dataon a variety of U.S. military and intelligence organizations due to intelligence sharing mechanismsand a 20-year career in the industry. Since the above documents are unlikely to meet the totalamount of 50 terabytes stolen, it is possible that either the majority of the information taken byMartin was not classified, or that the court system did not want to reveal more secrets thannecessary to indict him. It is doubtful that the documents mentioned are the most highly classifieddocuments in the stolen collection. The indictment does not mention the Shadow Brokers, ahacker group that publically released NSA hacking tools thought to be within Martin's stolen cacheof data. The group continues to communicate online while dumping more files, but it remainsunclear if the files were in fact from Martin — and if they were, whether they were purchased fromMartin or if he was hacked himself.

Cyber Actors Found Conducting Stealthy Breaches Across 40 CountriesKaspersky Lab has discovered a series of breaches using widely available penetration-testingtools, in which hackers inject malicious code into a computer's memory — rather than it's harddrive - where it disappears each time the system reboots. The method has been found targetingover 140 enterprise networks ranging from banks, telecommunication companies, andgovernment organizations across 40 countries, primarily targeting the United States, France,Ecuador, Kenya, the UK and Russia.

The Cipher Take:Breaches already go undetected for an average of over 200 days, but the methods deployed inthis case make the breach even stealthier. The use of common penetration-testing, also known asred teaming, hides the injection of malware by making it look legitimate. But the added feature ofinjecting the malware into the computer's memory—where it is only accessible by inspecting thecomputer's remote access memory (RAM), the network itself, and the registry—makes the breacheven more difficult to detect. Due to the malware being removed upon reboot and the use of opensource software, forensic analysis to determine who is behind the breach will be difficult, thoughKaspersky believes the tactics could point to groups called the Carbanak gang and GCMAN.Either way, the multi-step and stealthy intrusion tactics deployed as well as the scope of thebreaches suggest skilled attackers—either an organized criminal group or a nation-state.

Upcoming Cipher Brief Events

National Interests vs. International Provocations: China Pushes the Line in EastAsia | Tuesday, February 28Our February Georgetown Salon Series event will focus on the global implications ofChina's island­building campaign in the South China Sea. Leading the discussion with beAdmiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy; Timothy Heath,Senior International Defense Research Analyst at RAND Corporation; and Greg Poling,Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. The discussion will bemoderated by The Cipher Brief's CEO & Publisher, Suzanne Kelly.

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Upcoming Cipher Brief EventsNational Interests vs. International Provocations: China Pushes the Line in EastAsia I Tuesday, February 28Our February Georgetown Salon Series event will focus on the global implications ofChina's island-building campaign in the South China Sea. Leading the discussion with beAdmiral Jon Greenert, former Chief of Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy; Timothy Heath,Senior International Defense Research Analyst at RAND Corporation; and Greg Poling,Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. The discussion will bemoderated by The Cipher Briefs CEO & Publisher, Suzanne Kelly.

THE CIPHER BRIEF I ABOUT US I BECOME A SPONSOR I EVENTS I WORK FOR US I

Have any feedback? Please Email us atinfo@thecipherbrief.com

Copyright @ 2017 The Cipher, All rights reserved.You signed up on thecipherbrief.com

Our mailing address is:The Cipher

3128 M Street NWWashington, DC 20007