CIBC Energy Conference April 2014 Final€¦ · CIBC Energy Conference| April 2014. 2...
Transcript of CIBC Energy Conference April 2014 Final€¦ · CIBC Energy Conference| April 2014. 2...
C I B C E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e | A p r i l 2 0 1 4
2
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward‐looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current expectations, estimates andprojections about its business and operations. Words and phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "believes," "estimates," "projected," "future," "goals," "forecast," "plan,""opportunities," "upside," "will," "impact," "target," "2012 through 2015" and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward‐looking statements. Such statements include,but are not limited to, statements pertaining to: Perpetual's business diversification and price risk management strategies which include the transitioning from shallow gas assets toresource‐style, growth orientated oil and NGL assets and divestitures to optimize value and decrease debt; projected economics for various projects; future capital expenditure levels;the top five strategic priorities for 2013.These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which arebeyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward‐looking statements.You should not place undue reliance on these forward‐looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Perpetual undertakes noobligation to update publicly any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward‐looking statements are: inaccuracies in the estimated timing and amount offuture production of natural gas and oil due to numerous factors including permit delays or restrictions, weather, equipment failures, delays or lack of availability, unexpectedsubsurface or geologic conditions, lack of capital, increases in the costs of rented or contracted equipment, increases in labor costs, volumes of oil or gas greater or lesser thananticipated, and changes in applicable regulations and laws; unexpected problems with wells or other equipment, unexpected changes in operating costs and other expenses, includingutilities, labor, transportation, well and oil field services, taxes, permit fees, regulatory compliance and other costs of operation; decreases in natural gas and oil prices, including pricediscounts and basis differentials; difficulties in accurately estimating the discovery, volumes, development potential and replacement of natural gas and oil reserves; the impact ofeconomic conditions on our business operations, financial condition and ability to raise capital; variances in cash flow, liquidity and financial position; a significant reduction in ourbank credit facility's borrowing base; availability of funds from the capital markets and under our back credit facility; our level of indebtedness; the ability of financial counterparties toperform or fulfill their obligations under existing agreements; write downs of our asset carrying values and oil and gas property impairment; the discovery of previously unknownenvironmental issues; changes in our business and financial strategy; inaccuracies in estimating the amount, nature and timing of capital expenditures, including future finding anddevelopment costs; the inability to predict the availability and terms of capital; issues with marketing of natural gas and oil including lack of access of markets, changes in pipeline andtransportation tariffs and costs, increases in minimum sales quality standards for oil or natural gas, changes in the supply‐demand status of gas or oil in a given market area, and theintroduction of increased quantities of natural gas or oil into a given area due to new discoveries or new delivery systems; the impact of weather limiting or damaging operations andthe occurrence of natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other catastrophic events and natural disasters; the high‐risk nature of drilling and producingnatural gas and oil, including blow‐outs, surface caterings, fires, explosions; the competitiveness of alternate energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments;changes in governmental regulation of the natural gas and oil industry potentially leading to increased costs and limited development opportunities; changes in governmentalregulation of derivatives; developments in natural gas‐producing and oil‐producing countries potentially having significant effects on the price of gas and oil; the effects of changedaccounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles and IFRS promulgated by rule‐setting bodies; the amount of future abandonment and reclamation costs, assetretirement and environmental obligations; expected realization of gas over bitumen royalty adjustments; inability to execute strategic plans and realize projected economics,expectations and objectives for future operations and price risk management strategies; and the other risk factors identified in our most recent financial statements andmanagement's discussion and analysis and Annual Informational Form and our other filings on SEDAR. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed herein also could have materialadverse effects on our business and operations and on the forward‐looking statements contained herein.
Perpetual Energy – TSX:PMT
DIVERSIFIED
RESOURCE – STYLE
GROWTH – ORIENTED
ENTREPRENEURIAL
EXPLORER, PRODUCER & MARKETER
BUILT TO GROW BUILT TO PROSPER BUILT TO LAST
Conventional
Shallow Gas
Distributing Trust
3
Common shares outstanding 148.5 million Management ownership 25.34% Share price (5 day weighted average) $ 1.39 30 day weighted average daily trading volume ~ 421,000 shares/day
Market capitalization $ 206 million
Total Net Debt $ 377 million Net bank debt $ 67 million Convertible debentures $ 160 million Senior unsecured notes $ 150 million
Enterprise value $ 583 million
Operating profile
4
Actual & Deemed Production (Q4 2013) 21,809 Boe/d
Natural Gas 90.3 MMcf/d
Oil and NGL 3,509 bbl/d
Gas over Bitumen Deemed Production(1) 19.5 MMcf/d
P+P Reserves(2) 62.4 MMboe
Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI)(2) 8.6 Years
Contingent Resource – Bitumen(3) 279 MMbbl
Warwick Gas Storage Working Gas Capacity (gross)(4) 21.5 Bcf
(1) Cash Flow = 0.5 x [(deemed production volume x 0.80) x (Alberta Reference Price - $0.3791/GJ)](2) As evaluated by McDaniel at year end 2013(3) Best estimate as evaluated by McDaniel(4) 30% ownership interest
• Conventional Shallow Gas• Mannville Heavy Oil• Bitumen • Warwick Gas Storage• Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
Eastern Alberta
• Edson Wilrich• Multi-Zone Liquids-Rich Gas• Tight Oil and Gas Exploration
Deep Basin
Diversified portfolio – Built to prosper
5Spectrum of opportunities to invest in through variable commodity cycles
Mannville
Mannville EOR
Heavy Oil Exploration
HEAVY OIL
Edson Wilrich
Greater Edson Multi-zone
Deep Basin Exploration
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
Eastern Alberta Conventional
Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
SHALLOW GAS BITUMEN
Panny Bluesky
Liege Grosmont& Leduc
Marten Hills Clearwater
Other
OTHER
Warwick Gas Storage (30%)
GOB Technical Solutions
Exploration
Portfolio management strategy
6Entrepreneurial approach to value creation
Invest for growth Eastern Alberta heavy oil
Edson liquids-rich gas
Maximize cash flow Conventional shallow gas
Warwick Gas Storage
Optimize and Advance Viking/Colorado shale gas
Bitumen
GOB technical solutions
Tight oil & gas exploration
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM
VALUE STRATEGIES
PROVENDIVERSIFYING
GROWTH STRATEGIESCASH FLOW
GENERATORS
52%OF PRODUCTION
59%OF RESERVES
62%OF REVENUE
70%OF RESERVE VALUE
Commodity diversification
8Oil and NGLs contributed almost 50% of revenue in 2013
Revenue from Oil and NGL
Oil
NGL
Deep Basin gas(1)
Shallow gas
Warwick Gas Storage
2014 Forecast Revenue
(1) Blended heat content estimated at 1.092 GJ/Mcf compared to 1.045 GJ/Mcf for dry gas
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Revenu
e ($MM)
Oil and NGL Revenue
Oil and NGL % of Revenue
Oil and NGL Production
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Percen
tage
of total produ
ction (%
)
Oil an
d NGL Prod
uctio
n (bbl/d)
NGL Sales Oil Sales% Oil and NGL of Total Production
9Strong production growth profile in diversifying assets
Asset base transformation
Resource-style growth assets 43% of production in 2013 and growing
2014 Focus Grow Deep Basin production Optimize heavy oil businessMitigate declines in shallow gas
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2009 2011 2013
Growth Asset Produ
ction (bbl/d)
Mannville Heavy Oil
Deep Basin Gas
Deep Basin NGL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Prod
uctio
n (%
of total)
OilNGLDeep BasinE. Shallow Gas
2014 Top five strategic priorities
1. Reduce Debt and Manage Downside Risk
2. Grow Edson Liquids-Rich Gas Production, Reserves, Cash Flow, Inventory and Value
3. Maximize Value of Mannville Heavy Oil
4. Maximize Cash Flow from Shallow Gas
5. Advance and Broaden Portfolio of High Impact Opportunities with Risk-Managed Investment
10Strategic priorities focus our activities
1. Key priority
11
Reduce debt and manage downside risk
Balance sheet
Net Bank Debt: $67 million (YE 2013) Borrowing base on credit facility – $110 million Next semi-annual redetermination – April 2014
Senior Unsecured Notes: $150 million Coupon rate - 8.75% Maturity date - March 2018
Convertible Debentures: $160 million Repayable in cash or equity at Perpetual’s discretion 2015 maturities Senior notes provisions should not restrict cash repayment Normal Course Issuer Bid in place
12Over 80% of debt has term into 2015 and beyond
Total Current Net Debt: $377 million
TSX SymbolAmount
OutstandingCoupon
RateConversion
PriceMaturity
Date
5 Day Weighted
Avg. Trading Price
PMT.DB.D $99.90 million 7.25% $7.50 January 31, 2015 $99.47
PMT.DB.E $59.86 million 7.00% $7.00 December 31, 2015 $99.58
Debt Reduction
13$248 million in dispositions in 2012 and 2013Targeting another $100 million in asset sales for debt reduction in 2014
23 Transactions Closed in 2012
Total Net Proceeds: $167.2 MM
4 Transactions Closed 2013
Net Asset Sale Proceeds: $79.0 MMProduction: 16 Boe/dP+P Reserves: 13.1 MMBoe Reduction in FDC: $122.8 MM
Trioil Shares $1.9 MM
Total Net Proceeds: $80.9 MM
Diversification – Warwick Gas Storage
14Non-depleting, long life, diversifying assetNear term cash flow growth potential
• 40 Bcf Storage Reservoir• Delta Pressure to 47 Bcf 10 Bcf base reserves cushion gas in
place Up to 25 Bcf potential working gas
capacity• 1.2 to 1.5 cycle facility
WGSI LeasesWell Site PadStorage Facility PipelineHorizontal Wells2012 Hz WellsTCPL Pipeline
Commercial ‘Park and Loan’ business
30 to 50 year life
Grass Roots Development Existing depleted gas pool Facility Construction 2010 Initial working gas capacity 17 Bcf
Expanding Working Gas Capacity 2 new wells and stage 1 delta pressuring
• 21.5 Bcf working gas Stage 2 delta pressuring planned for
Summer 2014 – Winter 2015 cycle• 24.5 Bcf working gas with no
incremental operating costs
30% Perpetual Interest Sold 90% in 2012 with buyback option Exercised buy back option for 20%
repurchase in May 2013 ($19 MM)Manage WGS LP for annual fee
Diversified Cash Flow 2012 & 2013 ~$11 MM/year gross 2014 Forecast $15 MM gross
Commodity price risk management strategy
15Gas price risk management positions in place mainly for Q1 to Q3 2014More volume and length to oil price hedges
Enhance or protect funds flow and balance sheet
Enhance or protect the economics of an acquisition
Enhance or protect capital program economics
Capitalize on perceived market anomalies
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hed
ging
Gai
n/Lo
ss (
$MM
)
Hedging Gain Options Premium
2. Key Priority
16
Grow Edson liquids-rich gas production, reserves, cash flow, inventory and value
Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas
17Inventory of >110 Wilrich horizontal locations and growingDefining optimal spacing through infill well performance assessment in 2014
Pipeline To EdsonDeep Cut Plant
01-34 Gas Plant • Capacity 30 MMcf/d• Expanding to 60 MMcf/d by Q3 2014 16-10 Compressor
Capacity 30 MMcf/d
Vertical Well
Pre-2013 Horizontal Well
2013 Horizontal Well
2014 Budget Location
2014 Ready to Execute
West Edson• Type Curve IP 9.0 MMcf/d• 9 bbl/MM C5+• Reserves 5.6 Bcfe/well• 30 (15 Net) P+PUDs booked
Edson• Type Curve IP 4.6 MMcf/d/ • 35 bbl/MM NGL• Reserves 2.7 Bcfe/well• 21 (17 net) P+PUDs booked
PMT Sales Pipeline to Alliance Constructed in 2013
To Rosevear Plant (15% WI)
Wilrich value potential – Edson
18Inventory of 76 net locations at average of 2 wells per sectionModeling work supports possible additional 54 locations at increased drill density
Projected Economics per Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $ 5.1 MM
NPV @ 10 % $ 3.3 MM
ROR 47% BT
F&D $11.30 / boe
Capital Efficiency <$13,850 boe/d (first twelve months)
Payout 1.9 Years
Recycle Ratio 2.4
Assumptions (McDaniel Year End 2013)
2014 Pricing $3.60/GJ; $68.77/bbl NGL
Operating Costs $3.38/boe (first year)
Well Depth 4,000M HZ; 2,400M TVD
Type CurveIP 4.6 MMcf/d1 year exit rate 1.0 MMcf/d34 bbl/MMcf sales NGL/condensate
2P Reserves 2.7 Bcfe per well
Royalties 5% royalty until NGDDP credit of ~$2.2 MM is recovered
Risk Unrisked
Wilrich value potential – West Edson
19Inventory of 34 net locations at 2 wells per sectionMonitoring infill well performance to evaluate additional 16 locations at increased drill density
Assumptions (McDaniel Year End 2013)
2014 Pricing $3.60/GJ; $79.90/bbl NGL
Operating Costs $1.62/boe (first year)
Well Depth 4,200M HZ; 2,700M TVD
Type CurveIP 9 MMcf/d 1 year exit rate 2.6 MMcf/d9 bbl/MMcf C5+
2P Reserves 5.6 Bcfe sales per well
Royalties 5% royalty until NGDDP credit of ~$2.3 MM is recovered
Risk Unrisked
Projected Economics per Drilling Location
Capital (D,C & T) $6.4 MM gross
NPV @ 10 % $10.7 MM BT gross
ROR 168% BT
F&D $6.83 / boe
Capital Efficiency < $8,308 boe/d
Payout 0.8 Years
Recycle Ratio 3.7
Edson liquids-rich gas play performance
20Liquids-rich gas growth area built from 0 to 4,900 boe/d in 3 yearsInfrastructure and inventory in place for continued growth
Edson
West Edson
30% production growth expected in 2014Drill to fill expanded West
Edson capacity of 30 MMcf/d net
Modest decline at Edson with limited capital
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Cumulative Prod
uctio
n (M
Boe)
Boe/d
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2009 2011 2013
Cumulative Ca
sh Flow ($
MM)
Ope
ratin
g Ca
sh Flow ($
MM)
3. Key Priority
21
Maximize value of Mannville heavy oil
Eastern Alberta – Conventional heavy oil
22New pool tests designed to add 20+ drill ready development locations
Discovered 13 Mannville pools 7 Lloyd, 5 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz > 200 MMbbl Original Oil in Place > 10 MMbbl @ 5% recovery factor Current Production ~ 2,800 bbl/d
Low cost HZ development HZ $ 1.1 MM single lateral well $1.4 MM for multi-lateral well Average initial rate ~80 bbl/d Extensive in-house 3D & 2D seismic 123,000 net acres of lands
2014 Capital Activity
Q1 8 gross (7 net) development wells 1 new pool on production at 140 bbl/d oil 2 additional new pool tests underway
Full Year 23 gross (18 net) wellsWaterflood Implementation in I2I Pool Injection conversions Upper Mannville ‘A’ Planning for 2015 EOR Pilot3D coverage
Mannville
Q1 2014 Development
Q1 2014 New Pool Tests
H2 2014 Drilling
Upper Mannville ‘A’ pool – Lloyd Channel
23Downspacing to 50m infills in ‘A’ pool could add up to 20 low risk laterals
LLOYD CHANNEL TYPE LOG100/04-36-050-09W4/00
OOIP = 30.5 MMbbls Cumulative production to date ~800 Mbbl ( ~ 2.6% RF) Booked Reserves (year end 2013) 1.4 MMbbl (7% RF) 18 wells drilled to date 6 additional multi-laterals in inventory
Mannville heavy oil value potential
24Highly profitable at current oil prices
Projected Economics Per WellLloyd Sparky
Capital (D,C & T) $1.2 MM $1.2 MM
NPV @ 10 % $1.6 MM $0.8 MM
ROR ~ 200% 95%
F&D $13.50/Boe $20.50/Boe
Payout 0.7 Year 1.2 Year
Capital Efficiency ~$ 15,000 per Boe/d ~$ 25,000 per Boe/d
Recycle Ratio 3.0 2.7
Oil over shakers while drilling Sparky development pad HZ pad site
Assumptions(McDaniel Year End 2013)
2014 Pricing $68.90/bbl Wellhead heavy priceWTI $US95/bbl, WCS $US23.5/bbl, offset $7.60/bbl
Operating Costs $6.23 /Boe (first year) &$12.60/Boe (lifetime)
Average Well Lloyd IP 120 bbl/d to 75 bbl/d after year 1Sparky IP 85 bbl/d to 44 bbl/d after year 1
2P Reserves 90 Mbbl per Lloyd well60 Mbbl per Sparky well
Royalties 5% for first 18 months on Crown; variable on Freehold
Mannville heavy oil play performance
25Heavy oil portfolio built from 0 to 3,500 boe/d in 3 yearsInvestment recovered with cash flow now sustaining capital expenditures
-$20
$30
$80
$130
$180
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Cum
ulat
ive
Cap
ital
($
MM
)
Cap
ital
($M
M)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Cum
ulat
ive
Pro
duct
ion
(MB
oe)
Pro
duct
ion
(Boe
/d)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Cum
ulat
ive
Cas
h Fl
ow (
$MM
)
Ope
rati
ng C
ash
Flow
($M
M)
Waterflood and enhanced oil recovery
26Significant scope for increased reserves and value through infill drilling, waterfloods and possible polymer floods
Working Interest 66.7%
OOIP: 53 MMbbl
Cum Prod’n + McDaniel P+P: 1.7 MMbbl(3.1% recovery)
17 Horizontals to date (100 m spacing)
3 wells drilled in Q1 2014
Up to 8 additional wells in H2 2014
Waterflood
Water injection began Dec 2013 (2 wells)
3 additional injector conversions in Q2 2014
Reservoir simulation and lab work for polymer flood underway
Sparky Mid Type Log100/09-32-050-08W4/00
6 m OIL PAYSparky Mid Sand
> 24 % DENSITY POROSITY
Select Pools (1) OOIP (2)
(MMbbl)
Cumulativeproduction to
YE 2013
(MMbbl)
P+P Reserves booked at YE
2013(MMbbl)
Implied Recovery
Factor
(%)
Expected Primary Recovery(5-8%)(MMbbl)
Potential with Secondary Recovery and EOR
(10-15%)(MMbbl)
Sparky I2I(2) 53 0.5 1.2 3.1% 2.7 – 4.2 5.3 – 8.0
Upper Mannville A 30 0.5 0.6 3.7% 1.5 – 2.4 3.0– 4.4
Upper Mannville B 14 0.2 0.4 4.5% 0.7 – 1.1 1.4 – 2.1
Total 97 1.2 2.2 3.5% 4.8 – 7.7 9.7 - 14.5
Mannville I2IWaterflood Pilot Pool
4. Key Priority
27
Maximize cash flow from shallow gas
Conventional shallow gas
28Cash flow and value highly leveraged to gas price recovery
Belly River
Viking
Grand Rapids
Lower Mannville
Pre Cretaceous Unconformity
East Central and Northeast Alberta
Cretaceous and Devonian sweet shallow gas
Current production: ~ 60 - 65 MMcf/d
Base declines < 15%
Multiple stacked zones and play types
Extensive plant and pipeline infrastructure with large fixed cost component
Low base royalty rate Average 5% at <$5/Mcf
740 Uphole recompletions awaiting depletion of producing zones Low cost production and reserves adds
(<$10,000/boe/d; <$1.00/Mcf)
Focused on fixed operating cost reductions Metering, municipal taxes
5. Key Priority
29
Advance and broaden portfolio of high impact opportunities with risk-managed investment
• Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas• Bitumen• Exploration
30
Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
Belly River Play FairwayCardium/ Colorado WellsPerpetual LandsViking Proved UndevelopedViking Probable UndevelopedViking Proven Non-ProducingProspect Inventory 5 Yr
Viking Booked Reserves
• 12 Bcf PNP booked in recompletions• Historical 2P reserves of 100+ Bcf removed
from bookings due to price revisions and lack of activity
• Gas price recovery and capital commitment could drive substantial future bookings
Colorado Resource Potential
• > 1 Tcf Potential Recoverable Resource calibrated to 675m of core
• Average 435 MMcf / well gross
• Expected HZ development at 8+ wells/section
Over 1,200 net sections of land with Viking/Colorado Potential
Extensive plant and pipeline infrastructure
Develop Colorado Group shales with tight Viking and Mannville sands to reduce costs and enhance economics
Pilot program ready to execute
Colorado group technical advancement
Colorado group free gas in place
31Resource is widely distributed
Total Resource in Place > 130 Tcf OGIP estimated to average 16
Bcf/section
Proven recovery from Cardium equivalent zone through horizontal development
Potential in up to 6 zones within 290m shale group
2011 - 2012 Advanced detailed (3G) technical study
Gas in Place, brittleness mapping, production inflow and fracture modeling
Pilot work evaluated fracture performance through recompletions
2013 - 2014Monitor industry horizontal development
pilots
Pilot planning and execution Recompletions Vertical wells Horizontal pad wells Frac designs
32
Bitumen
527 net sections (329,000 net acres) of oil sand leases
Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods
7 potential project areas with varying potential
>3 Billion bbls OBIP independently recognized at Liege and Panny 278 MMbbl contingent resource
467 MMbbl additional prospective resource
Perpetual OS Leases
Fireflood ProjectsCSS Projects
Primary Projects
Oil Pipelines
SAGD Projects
Electric Heaters
33
Bitumen – Panny Bluesky
Excellent reservoir quality in Bluesky homogeneous shoreface sand facies
2010/11 Vertical Wells
Existing Horizontal Well
8m Bitumen
10m Bitumen
RoadsNatural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent PipelinePerpetual Gas PlantPerpetual Oil Sands RightsOther Perpetual Lands
Low rate cold flow without solvent or thermal assistance
Average pay thickness 11 m
Low viscosity bitumen ~15,000 cp @ 25oC 50,000 cp at 11oC reservoir temp Highly mobile at ~70oC
Panny Bluesky Resource Assessment (McDaniel P50) 755 MMbbl Discovered OBIP 132 MMbbl Contingent Resource 17.5% recovery factor applied
utilizing horizontal cyclic steam
Resource to support 15,000 bbl/d commercial project for 20 to 25 years
Technology pilot pending Submitted ERCB application LEAD
• Electrical heat w water &/or solvent
IETP funding approvedWater source well drilled
LEAD process technology pilot Low pressure electro-thermally assisted drive
34Electrical heating cable with water injection for mobility and pressure support Expected pilot start-up 2015
Production Facilities
Power source
Producing Wellhead
Overburden
Underburden
Injection Facilities
Pay Zone
TOB1 TOB2 TOB313-34 POB
Pilot Plan $18.2 MM capital and operating costs over
pilot life (3 years)
IETP funding (30%) $5.5 million
35
Bitumen – Liege carbonates
Excellent reservoir quality vuggy porosity in Grosmont
Shell
AOC
Husky
Laricina / Osum
3 Grosmont carbonate / Leduc OV wells drilled
Combined with legacy gas wells to evaluate and map resource
Stacking of 3 Grosmont units > 30 m pay
Leduc reef facies also present and bitumen saturated in places; geologically complex
Resource Assessment (McDaniel best estimate) 2,327 MMbbl bitumen in place
(Undiscovered plus discovered) 132 MMbbl Contingent Resource assigned 449 MMbbl Prospective Resource assigned 25% recovery factor applied using SAGD as ‘technology under
development’
2014 Capital spending
2014 Capital spending plan
Total Capital: $70 - 80MM
372014 Capital focused on proven diversifying plays
Q1 2014Wells Capital
Q2-Q4 2014Wells Capital
TotalWells Capital
West Central Deep Basin
3 gross (2.0 net)
$18 MMUp to 7
(3.5 net)$21-$26 MM
Up to 10 (5.5 net)
$39-$44 MM
Mannville Heavy Oil 11 gross (9.7 net)
$13 MMUp to 12 (8.3 net)
$11-$14 MMUp to 23(18 net)
$24-$27 MM
Eastern Shallow Gas
Recompletion/Workovers/
Facility Optimization
$4 MM $3-$5 MM $7-$9 MM
Total $35 MM $35-$45 MM $70-$80 MM
1) Includes facility capital to expand West Edson to 60 MMcf/d gross (50% WI)
Investment thesis
Strong annual growth
2013 (versus 2012)
Oil and NGL production growth of 12%
Mannville oil production growth of 24%
Deep basin production growth of 14%
Funds flow and funds flow per share growth of 19%
Debt reduction from year end 2012 of 3%
2014 (versus 2013)
Key diversifying plays production growth of ~16%
Funds flow growth of ~40-50%
Significant downside commodity price protection in place
Leveraged to gas price recovery
Every $0.50 per Mcf = $5 million of annual funds flow (~5% increase)
Fully exposed to gas price recovery in 2015 with no material gas hedge positions
Disposition program targeting $100 MM in debt reduction
39Year over year growth forecast on top priorities
Sum of the parts
40Trading at <1/2 of ‘Reserve-based’ Net Asset ValueAnd 80% of Reserve-only NAV, excluding any undeveloped land valuation
-$500.00
-$250.00
$0.00
$250.00
$500.00
$750.00
$1,000.00
$1,250.00
Liabilities Reserve-Based NAV Prospect Inventory Risked Prospect Inventory UnRisked
NP
V 8
% (
$MM
)
Undeveloped Land
Bitumen
Mannville PI
Viking/Colorado PI
Conventional Shallow Gas PI
Edson/West Edson PI
Gas Over Bitumen
Warwick Gas Storage
Proved + Probable Developed
Proved + Probable Undeveloped
Hedge Book
Bank Debt
Senior Notes
Convertible Debenture
Net ARO
Unrisked NAV $7.19/Share
Reserve Based NAV $3.07/Share
$5.10
$1.70
$0
-$1.70
-$3.40
$6.80
$3.40
Risked NAV $4.91/Share
$8.50
NAV Per Share
(1) WGS LP valued at proportionate 2013 buyback acquisition value in all scenarios
PMT investment thesis
Asset base repositioning for resource-style oil and NGL diversification successful
Mannville heavy oil delivering results with material secondary recovery growth potential Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas inventory proven and highly economic
Execution and operational excellence in chosen strategies
Increasing oil and NGL in commodity mix growing funds flow
40% of debt has term into 2018 providing flexibility
Asset dispositions and growing cash flow improving debt to cash flow ratios 60% drawn on credit facility Multiple ‘levers’ available to manage balance sheet and convertible debenture maturities in 2015 Pursuing further asset dispositions to continue to reduce outright debt leverage
High impact value potential from medium to long term portfolio of assets
Tremendous leverage to any gas price cycle recovery in 2015 and beyond
Trading significantly below ‘Reserve-Based’ Net Asset Value
41Spectrum of opportunity to grow and prosper
42
Important information about the presentation
Non-GAAP MeasuresThis presentation contains financial measures that may not be calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Readers are referred to advisories andfurther discussion on non-GAAP measures contained in the "Non-GAAP Measures" section of our most recent management's discussion and analysis.
IP ratesInitial production or IP rates contained in this presentation are based the length of the specific production tests disclosed herein and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performanceor ultimate recovery. Initial production rates disclosed herein are based on 3 days of initial production and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery.
Financial OutlooksIncluded in this presentation are estimates of Perpetual's future cash flow and debt levels, which are based on the various assumptions as to production levels, capital expenditures,commodity prices and other assumptions disclosed in this presentation. To the extent such estimates constitute a financial outlook, they were approved by management of Perpetual inMarch 2014 and are included to provide readers with an understanding of Perpetual's anticipated financial position and readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriatefor other purposes.
Reserves, Resource and F&D DisclosureUnless as otherwise noted, reserves and resource information included in this presentation is based on independent evaluations prepared by McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. inaccordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101") using McDaniel's forecast prices and costs. All of Perpetual's contingent resources currently have an "undetermined" economicstatus as sub-classification into economic and uneconomic categories has not been evaluated. Contingencies affecting the classification of the resources include corporate developmentplans, the need for regulatory approval, and the need to perform an economic study regarding production. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion ofthe resources. Please refer to "Notes Pertaining to the Reporting of Bitumen Contingent Resource" in Perpetual's Annual Information Form dated March 7, 2014 for applicable definitions andrisk factors pertaining to Perpetual's reserve and resource disclosure.
Perpetual's F&D costs are disclosed under the heading "Finding and Development Costs" in Perpetual's February 4, 2014 press release. Please refer to this press release for additionaldisclosure pertaining to Perpetual's F&D costs. The aggregate of exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change in estimated futuredevelopment costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
Projected EconomicsThis presentation includes estimates of projected economics or value potential for Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and West Edson Wilrich liquids rich gas assets. Estimates of "projectedcapital", "NPV@8 and 10%", "ROR", "F&D", "capital efficiency" and "recycle ratio" are provided in respect of these assets. These terms referenced in this presentation are estimates byPerpetual of future results based on the indicated assumptions and are by their nature projections which are different than terms calculated in accordance with NI 51-101, which arehistorical calculations. These estimates have been provided as Perpetual believes they provide a reasonable estimate of the future economics of Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and WestEdson Wilrich liquids rich gas value. These terms do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by NI 51-101, the COGE Handbook or CSA Notice 51-324 and therefore these measures,as defined by Perpetual, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These estimate constitute forward-looking information and therefore reflects severalmaterial factors, expectations and assumptions and is subject to a number of risk factors. See "Forward-Looking Information" above for further information.
Mcf equivalent (Mcfe)Mcf equivalent (Mcfe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In accordance with NI 51-101 a Mcfe conversion ratio for oil of 1 Bbl: 6 Mcf has been used, which is based on anenergy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gasand crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading asan indication of value.
Net Asset ValueIn relation to the disclosure of net asset value ("NAV") in this presentation, the NAV presented herein is what is normally referred to as a "produce-out" NAV calculation under which thecurrent value of Perpetual's reserves would be produced at forecast future prices and costs and do not necessarily represent a "going concern" value of our company. The value is asnapshot in time and is based on various assumptions including commodity prices and foreign exchange rates that vary over time. It should not be assumed that the NAV represents thefair market value of Perpetual.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Susan L. Riddell RosePresident & CEO
Cameron R. SebastianVice President, Finance & CFO
3200, 605 – 5 Avenue SWCalgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H5800.811.5522 TOLL FREE
403.269.4400 PHONE
403.269.4444 FAX
[email protected] EMAIL
43perpetualenergyinc.com
Appendix2013 Annual
Results
2013 Top 5 strategic priorities
1. Maximize value of Mannville heavy oil
2. Position for growth of Edson liquids-rich gas
3. Manage downside risk
4. Advance and broaden portfolio of high impact opportunities with
risk managed investment
5. Prepare to maximize value from shallow gas base assets in gas
price recovery
45Strategic priorities focus our activities
2013 Top strategic priorities
1. Maximize Value of Mannville Heavy Oil• 13 Mannville oil pools discovered by year end 2013 (7 Lloyd; 5 Sparky; 1 Basal Quartz)
• Drilled 37 horizontal wells (35.7 net) for $49 million
• Increased heavy oil production 24% to 3,157 bbl/d (peak of ~3,500 bbl/d)
• Mannville heavy oil accounted for 57% of net operating income in 2013
• Reserve additions of 1.83 MMboe offsetting production of 1.36 MMboe for growth of 11% over
2012 reserves (2013 ending reserves = 4.8 Mmboe)
• Identified multiple prospects for future exploration and began executing land capture strategy
• Advancing waterflood and evaluating polymer flood potential
• Reservoir simulation model built
• Laboratory fluids work and core flood testing for water and polymer floods
• Initiated waterflood pilot in Mannville I2I Sparky pool
• Application made for waterflood expansion in pilot pool and for additional pool – review
pending
46Significant scope for increased reserves and value with infill drilling, waterfloods and possible polymer floods
2013 Top strategic priorities
2. Position for Growth of Edson Liquids-Rich Gas• Drilled 5 (2.5 net) horizontal wells• Increased gas and NGL production 12% to 4,894 boe/d (29.4 MMcfe/d)• Reserve additions of 13.64 MMboe offsetting production of 1.79 MMboe for growth of 60% over 2012
reserves (2013 ending reserves = 31.8 MMbbl)
West Edson• Expanded West Edson gas plant to stated capacity of 30 MMcf/d (50% WI) with full refrigeration and
liquids recovery (Capable of flowing >60 MMcf/d on compression bypass)
• Connected West Edson 1-34 gas plant to Alliance pipeline system through a 15.5 km sales pipeline and Perpetual owned/operated meter station
• New facility reduced operating costs, down time and gives opportunity to maximize production
• Negotiated contracts to diversify markets and capitalize on enhanced heat rate gas
• West Edson drilling increased the type curve from 3.8 Bcfe to 5.9 Bcfe gross reserves per well
Edson• Additional inventory capture through undeveloped land acquisitions
• One (0.5 net) farmout well drilled to assess portion of new lands
47Expanded capital program delivered substantial increases in production, reserves, revenue and value
2013 Top strategic priorities
3. Advance and Broaden Portfolio of High Impact Opportunities with Risk-Managed Investment
Elmworth – Sold for $77.5 MM to Crystallize Value• Drilled and completed vertical well to continue majority of South Wapiti block
Panny Bitumen• IETP funding approved (30% of sunk costs received - $0.5 MM)
• Built thermal reservoir model to optimize LEAD process
• Identified potential SAGD opportunity
Liege Bitumen• Continued to monitor industry activity to assess future potential
Viking/Colorado• Ready to execute horizontal pilot program to evaluate multi-stage fracture technologies, type curve expectations and fine-tune full scale
development cost assumptions to assess economic potential
Warwick Gas Storage• Purchased 20% on buy back option for $19 million to increase exposure to working gas capacity and cash flow growth
• Received delta-pressuring approval to 21.5 Bcf working gas capacity
Columbia• Acquired acreage and drilled one (0.5 net) exploratory well – testing underway
Waskahigan Duvernay• Farmed out to evaluate prospective condensate-rich Duvernay acreage
• Well drilled in Q4 2013 - completion expected in Q3 2014
48Long term, high impact projects advancing with modest capital spending
2013 Top strategic priorities
4. Manage Downside Risk and Reduce Debt
Decrease Costs• Operating costs down 5% from 2012 (2013 - $75.4 MM)• Interest expense decreased 11% from 2012 (2013 - $28.9 MM)• G&A down 10% from 2012 (2013 - $24.5 MM)• Implemented oil drying and rail oil delivery arrangements which increased netbacks
Protect Cash Flow Through Commodity Price Management• Established material gas hedge position through October 2013 to mitigate summer gas price downside risk brought on by unseasonably warm winter 2013
• Gas hedging gains accounted for $8.3MM in revenue• Base level of oil revenue protected for 2,250 bbl/d which exceeded internal price forecast • WTI-WCS differential fixed at $US22.79/bbl for 2,250 bbl/d
Bank Debt• Credit facility borrowing base reduced from $140MM to $110MM in April 2013 but maintained October 2013 at $110MM
• Year end reserve report supports possible increase to borrowing base at April 2014 review
Diversification• Increased diversified cash flow from WGS LP to $2.4 MM with buyback and expansion
49Myriad of strategies successfully employed to manage downside risk Cash flow growth accomplished with debt reduction
2013 Top strategic priorities
5. Prepare to Maximize Value from Shallow Gas in Gas Price Recovery
Operating Costs• Shallow gas op costs reduced $7.4MM (12.9%) from 2012• Suspended shut‐in wells and pipelines and removed unused onsite equipment to lower municipal taxes, lease and other costs by an estimated $1.7 MM/year
Recompletions/Workovers• Identified and prepared to execute 60 recompletions and workovers for Q1 2014 program• $5MM in recompletions and workovers targeting to add 6.1 MMcf/d initial production with less than a year payout in 2014
Facilities• 7 Compressor/booster compressors overhauled• 3 Facility consolidation projects identified and prepared to execute
50Modest shallow gas program ready to execute in 2014
Full year capital spending
Total Capital: $96.7
51Capital focused on proven diversifying plays
Total 2013Wells Capital
Mannville Heavy Oil 37 (35.7 net) $ 49 MM
West Central Deep Basin(1) 6 (3.0 net) $35 MM
Land, Seismic, ARO & Other $12 MM
Total $96 MM
1) Includes $15MM in facilities capital at West Edson
Production highlights
Oil & NGL production 412 bbl/d to 3,860 bbl/d, a 12% from 2012 levels• Mannville heavy oil grew 24%• Change in processing at Edson reduced NGL
Natural gas production 11% to 88.9 MMcf/d due to shallow gas declines and dispositions • Decline offset by 24% increase in Deep Basin gas
Total actual production was 18,696 boe/d, 11% from 20,142 boe/d in 2012
Total actual and deemed production 9% to 22,479 boe/d (2012 – 24,592 boe/d)
52Commodity diversification strategy increased oil and NGL to 17% of actual and deemed production
655, 3%3,205 , 14%
10,633 , 47%
4,200 , 19%
3,783 , 17%
NGL Oil Shallow Gas Deep Basin Gas GOB Deemed Production
791 , 3%2,657 , 11%
13,232 , 54%
3,462 , 14%
4,450 , 18%
2013 (22,479 boe/d) 2012 (24,592 boe/d )
Funds flow
53Cash costs, excluding royalties, down $9.3 MM from 2012
Year Ended December 31
($ Millions) 2013 2012 % Change
Revenue 210.9 206.5 2
GOB Royalty 8.9 6.9 29
Royalties 19.0 12.7 50
Op Costs 75.4 79.7 (5)
Transportation 10.2 8.8 16
E&E 3.3 3.4 (3)
Cash G&A 24.5 27.1 (10)
Interest 28.9 32.5 (11)
Funds Flow 58.5 49.1 19
Per Share 0.39 0.33 18
Change from 2012
Oil & Gas Price $32.0 MM
Oil & NGL Production $9.7 MM
Hedging Gains $24.3 MM
Gas Production $10.2 MM
Gas Storage $0.8 MM
Royalties $6.3 MM
Cash Costs $9.3 MM
Funds Flow $9.4 MM
Balance sheet reconciliation
54E&D capital expenditures and WGS LP buy back funded from funds flow and net disposition proceeds
Year Ended December 31
($ Millions) 2013 2012 % Change
Exploration & Development 96.7 79.7 21
Acquisitions, net of Dispositions (51.6) (164.5) (67)
Total Capital Expenditures 45.1 (84.8) (153)
Funds Flow 58.5 49.1 19
Net Bank Debt (1) 67.2 77.8 (14)
Long Term Debt (including debentures) 309.8 309.8 -
Total Net Debt 377.0 387.8 (3)
(1) Includes $11.0MM long term Crown receivable for GOB financial solution
Reserve distribution
55Reserves in key diversifying growth plays increased 51% year over yearMannville heavy oil and deep basin now 59% of P+P reserves, up from 32% from 2012
Mannville Heavy Oil
Deep Basin
Eastern Shallow Gas
PDP - Proved Developed Producing
2PDP - Probable Developed Producing
PNP/PUD - Proved non-producing and undeveloped
2PNP/2PUD - Probable non-producing and undeveloped
(1) Year-End 2013
Total Reserves = 62.4 MMbbl
PDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD2PNP/2PUDPDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD
2PNP/2PUD
PDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD 2PNP/2PUD
Reserve value distribution
56Value of key diversifying growth plays increased 133% year over yearMannville heavy oil and deep basin now 70% of P+P Reserve Value, up from 53% from 2012
Mannville Heavy Oil
Deep Basin
Eastern Shallow Gas
PDP - Proved Developed Producing
2PDP - Probable Developed Producing
PNP/PUD - Proved non-producing and undeveloped
2PNP/2PUD - Probable non-producing and undeveloped
(1) Year-End 2013
Total NPV 10 = $622 million
PDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD
2PNP/2PUD
PDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD
2PNP/2PUD
PDP
2PDP
PNP/PUD2PNP/2PUD
Gas price risk management
57Gas price risk management positions in place mainly for Q1 – Q3 2014
1) Mar 26, 2014 forward prices2) Calculated using Q4 2013 actual and deemed gas production of 110 MMcf/d
Type of Contract Term Volumes
(GJ/d)
Fixed Price
($/GJ)
Futures Price(1)
($/GJ)% of 2013Natural Gas Production(2)
AECO Fixed Price Financial Apr – Jun 2014 20,825 $4.01 $4.45 18%
AECO Fixed Price Financial Apr – Oct 2014 26,100 $4.02 $4.45 23%
AECO Fixed Price Physical Apr – Oct 2014 5,275 $4.06 $4.45 5%
AECO Fixed Price Financial Apr – Dec 2014 10,000 $3.71 $4.49 9%
AECO Fixed Price Financial Jul – Dec 2014 22,500 $4.25 $4.52 19%
AECO BasisFinancial
Apr – Oct 2014 7,500 ($0.48) ($0.225) 6%
Oil price risk management
58More volume and length to oil price hedges
1) Mar 26, 2014 forward prices2) Calculated using Q4 2013 oil and NGL production of 3,500 bbl/d
Type of Contract
Term Volumes
(bbl/d)
Fixed or Floor Price ($/bbl)
Ceiling Price($/GJ)($/bbl)
Futures Price(1)
($/bbl)
% of 2013Oil & NGL
Production(2)
WTI collars Mar – Dec 2014 1,500 US $86.67 US $95.15 US $96.60 43%
WTI collars Calendar 2015 1,000 CAD $87.50 CAD $95.50 CAD $99.76 28%
WTI Fixed Price Mar ‐ Jun 2014 750 US $90.00 ‐ US $99.15 21%
WTI Fixed Price Mar ‐ Dec 2014 250 US $90.00 ‐ US $96.60 7%
WTI‐WCSDifferential
Apr ‐ Dec 2014 2,000 US ($21.64) ‐ US ($20.65) 57%