CIAJ_Presentation030830_Final.ppt
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Transcript of CIAJ_Presentation030830_Final.ppt
Communications and Information network Association of Japan
September 1, 2003
New Technology in the Telecommunications Services in
Japan
9TH WEF
Diagram- 2Subscribers to Japan’s Cellular Phones
Source: Telecommunications Carriers Association (TCA)
41.546.3
51.155.7
60.965.4
69.172.1
75.777.8
7.5
19.7
34.6
44.9
51.9
57.1
62.565.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
'99.3 '99.9 '00.3 '00.9 '01.3 '01.9 '02.3 '02.9 '03.3 '03.7
(mill
ion
subs
crib
ers)
Cellular PhonesIP users
Diagram- 3
i-mode Business Model i-mode success factors
ContentsProvider
NTT DoCoMo i-mode users
Information Charges
Packet Communication Charges
Info
rmati
on C
harg
es
Comm
issio
n fee
(9%
of In
form
ation
char
ges)
Information
Use of packet network enables inexpensive always-on access.
Use of Internet standards:TCP/IP and HTML subset
Attractive handsets.
Build a WIN-WIN relationship with content providers.
Outline of i-mode
Diagram- 4
Growth of Contents Business of i-mode
Growth of contents business Breakdown of packets used
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1999 2000 20010
200
400
600
800
1,000
No. of i-mode ICPs
No. of i-mode menu sites
Total information charges for premium contents
(100 mil yen)
Left axis
Right axis
Web access 85%
Mail15%
DatabaseDatabase
TransactionTransaction
InformationInformation
EntertainmentEntertainment
Diagram- 5
FY2000
(00/4-01/3)
FY2001
(01/4-02/3)
FY2002
(02/4-03/3) 2002/2001
Sales revenue (a)
US$
34,812M 38,828M 40,076M 103.2%
Packet revenue (b)
US$
2,937M 5,968M 7,386M 123.8%
(b)/(a) 8.4% 15.4% 18.4%
ARPU (Total)
(US$)
Voice
i-mode
72.1
64.8
7.4
70.6
57.8
12.8
67.7
53.1
14.6
95 .8%
91.8%
113.6%
1$=120\
NTT DoCoMo Revenue/ARPU Analysis (consolidated, US. accounting based)
NTT DoCoMo Revenue/ARPU Analysis (consolidated, US. accounting based)
ARPU: Average Revenue Per Unit
Diagram- 6Commercialization Plan of 3G ServicesCommercialization Plan of 3G Services
W-C
DM
Acdm
a2000
NTT DoCoMo
J-Phone
KDDI au
2001 2002 2003
May DecOct
Introductory service
Tokyo Area
Mar
Osaka, Nagoya
95% 97% & more
PostponedTokyo Area
Summer
Aug
Osaka, Nagoya
800MHz
2GHz
CDMA2000 1X
Dec
90%
Dec
Postponed
spring
1X EV-DO
CDMA2000 1XTokyo Area
Population Coverage
95%
87 % Other major cities
Autumn
Autumn
(659K)
(66K)
(9,156K)
Carriers No. of 3G subscribers
as of July, 2003
(152K, end of 2002)
Diagram- 7Elements Leading to Widespread Popularity of DoCoMo’s 3G
Initial launch Dec. 2002 Mar. 2003 Fall 2003 Spring 2004
Tokyo area only 87% 91% 95% over 97%
3G’s high-speed data transmission function is its true worth
3G’s high-speed data transmission function is its true worth
1. Expansion of service area (% of population covered)
2. Explosive popularity of camera-equipped cellular phonesTwo-thirds of cell phones shipped within Japan are camera-
equipped models.Capacity of digital camera function has moved into mega-pixel
range, and clarity of LCD screen has increased.110 to 310 thousand pixels in 2002
1 million pixels in spring 20032 million pixels in fall 2003
Background
Popularity of mailing high-quality still images and long video images via e-mail.
Diagram- 8Improvement of 3G Handsets Performance
2002 2003.01- 2003 Autumn
Latest 2G (PDC) Model
Weight 150g 120-130g 100g or less 100-110g
Size 204cc 110cc 100cc or less
90cc
Dynamic Standby time
55 hours 180 hours 300 hours or more
400 hours or more
Continuous talk time 90 min 130 min 130 min 140 min
Camera features X 100,000-300,000 pixels
1M pixels or more
1M pixels or more
Packet Transmission Speed (Max.)
384kbps 384kbps 384kbps 28.8kbps
Video phone X O O X
Actual Price US$400 or more
US$250 TBD US$250 or less
Diagram- 9
2002 2003
Use of mobile Internet services 76.1% 94.5%
Use of camera-equipped cellular phones 21.6% 41.5%
Subscribers interests in 3G 16.8% 40.5%
Use of Cellular Phones (based on study by CIAJ)Use of Cellular Phones (based on study by CIAJ)
Expectations for 3G
(multiple answers possible)
High-speed data transmission 60.1%
Exchange mail with images 59.9%
Possible to use abroad 58.1%
Map information 47.4%
Study conducted from March through April, 2003 on 600 people (of both sexes and covering every generation)
Diagram- 10
1. Higher transmission speed
2. Complete conversion to IP of cellular phone networks
DoCoMo’s Transition Schedule From 3.0G to 3.5G
Now
384kbps
Voice: circuit switching network
Data: packet switching network
Now
end of 2004
14.4Mbps max
(provide HSDPA functions)
2005 or later
ALL IP networks
Greatly reduce construction and operating costs for adjustments to
increase in data traffic
Diagram- 11Diagram of 4G (Systems Beyond IMT-2000)
Compiled by ITU-R (based on Japanese proposal)
Seamless interconnectivity where users don’t notice transition from one network/system to another.Local networks using wireless LAN, Bluetooth, etc.
Expansion resulting from Systems Beyond IMT-2000 (4G)
(3.5G)IMT-2000Enhanced
expansion
wireless LAN, Bluetoogh
4G systemcellular type
high-speed wireless access
IMT-2000(3G)
On-site, Campus/Medium-speedPublic wireless LAN
User environment
Indoors/Walking
1M 10M 100M 1G Data speed( bit/sec.)
Wide-area mobility/High-speed
4G will encompass existing communication systems such as 3G and wireless LAN
Terrestrial digital broadcasting/BS digital broadcasting
Diagram- 12Subscribers to Japan’s Broadband Services
71
651
2,379
4,223
7,023
8,257
463784
1,151
2,224
26 115 305 458
30.2
1,4561,800
2,069
32 92 216
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
'99.3 '99.9 '00.3 '00.9 '01.3 '01.9 '02.3 '02.9 '03.3 '03.6
thos
and
subs
crib
ers
()
ADSLCATVFTTH
Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
Diagram- 13
Current state of servicesMaximum speed
in 2 or 3 years (Mbps)
Maximum speed(Mbps)
Typical monthly charge (US$)
ADSL 8-12 => 24-26 30
CATV 8 => 30 46 100
FTTH 100 50 1,000
Mobile
2.5G 0.03
3G 0.384 14.4
4G
(proposal to ITU)
100 (around 2010)
Higher Speeds and Price Wars Among Internet Access ServicesHigher Speeds and Price Wars Among Internet Access Services
Diagram- 14
2,900 3,100 2,9562,073
1,950 1,950 2,028
2,5403,081
6,993
4,477
7,176
5,979
2,453
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
4,850 5,050 4,9844,613
1.5M 1.5M8M 8M 768k 768k512k 500k 512k1.5M
( Yen/month)
International Tariff Comparison of Always-on ADSL Services
Upper Part:ISP access fee Lower Part:communications fee
Source: Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
(Max speed of downlink)
Diagram- 15
Features of IPv6
Virtually unlimited number of addressesIPv4: Total 4.3B IPv6:3.4X1028 per capita.
Hierarchical AddressingEfficient network administration
Security function is standardAuthentication in EC etc., secured traffic
Framework for QoS guarantee (flow label):Stream data (voice, video)
Easy configuration by Plug&PlayIP enabled information appliance
Multicasting is standardone-to-many, conversion of broadcasting and communications
Interconnection with Mobile NetworkSeamless interworking between fixed network and mobile network via MobileIP