Chris Llull a , Uwe A. Schneider a,b , Petr Havlik b ,

COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONS

International Food Security Impacts of

European Non-Food Options

Chris Llull a, Uwe A. Schneider a,b, Petr Havlik b,

Michael Obersteiner b, Ingo Huck a, Bruno Dorin c,

Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d

a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germanyb International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

c French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), Franced University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 200822

Increasing concerns about the sustainability of bioenergy.

Impact of bioenergy on the food system.

In a context of population, economic growth and resource scarcity.

Introduction


Regional Resolution


POPULATION GROWTH

ECONOMIC GROWTH

LAND SUPPLY

WATER SUPPLY

FOOD DEMAND

BIOENERGY

TECHNICAL PROGRESS

CO2 TAX

DEFORESTATIONq

p

CS

PSp*

q*

D

S

Exogenous Parameters


Food Price

Food Trade

Food Consumption

Food Composition

Food Security

Main Output


Population growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030

Economic growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030

Bioenergy: IIASA GGI A2r baseline10 levels up to 10% of total energy demand by 2030

Technical progress: 20% increase in productivity

Environmental policies: Carbon taxes 100 $ / ton

Deforestation: allowed or not allowed

Scenarios


0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Population Growth Scenario

NorthAmericaWesternEurope

PacificOECDCentralEastEurope

FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina

SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia

MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Economic Growth Scenario







1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Food Demand Scenario







0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Water Scarcity







0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Land Scarcity







GLOBAL LEVEL

FOOD PRICE


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Crop Price Index

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9

Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 1


2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Cro

ps P

rice

Ind

ex

Global Bioenergy Level (in EJ)

Crops Price Index versus Bioenergy


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Crop Price Index

GrowthGrowth, No Def.

Growth, Bioen., No Def., YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax

Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.

Growth,Bioen.,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,Tax

Growth,Bioen.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Animal Calorie Price Index

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9

Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1


1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Animal Calorie Price Index

GrowthGrowth, No Def.

Growth, Bioen., No Def., YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax

Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.

Growth,Bioen.,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,Tax

Growth,Bioen.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1


GLOBAL LEVEL

FOOD CONSUMPTION


1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

World Average Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal)

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5

Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9



1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)


GrowthGrowth,Bioen.

Growth,Bioen.,Yields

Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields

bioenergy

yield

tax Tax & yield


1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)


Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields

Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax

Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1

bioenergy

yield


GLOBAL LEVEL

FOOD COMPOSITION


15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Animal Calories Share (in %)

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5

Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9



10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)


GrowthGrowth,Bioen.



bioenergy

yield

tax

Tax & yield


10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)





bioenergy

yield

tax

Tax & yield


REGIONAL LEVEL

FOOD TRADE


-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Net Export Food in Million US$ for scenario: Growth







-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Paci

ficO

EC

D

Cen

tral

Eas

tEur

ope

Form

erSo

viet

Uni

on

Plan

nedA

siaC

hina

Sout

hAsi

a

Oth

erPa

cifi

cAsi

a

Mid

Eas

tNor

thA

fric

a

Lat

inA

mer

icaC

arib

SubS

ahar

anA

fric

a

Food Trade compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030


Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,Yields

Growth,Bioen.Growth,Bioen.,Yields




REGIONAL LEVEL

FOOD CONSUMPTION


1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal) for scenario Growth







-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Paci

ficO

EC

D

Cen

tral

Eas

tEur

ope

Form

erSo

viet

Uni

on

Plan

nedA

siaC

hina

Sout

hAsi

a

Oth

erPa

cifi

cAsi

a

Mid

Eas

tNor

thA

fric

a

Lat

inA

mer

icaC

arib

SubS

ahar

anA

fric

a

Daily Energy Intake per Head compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030 (in kcal/capita/day)







REGIONAL LEVEL

FOOD COMPOSITION


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Animal Calories Share (in %) for scenario Growth







-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Nor

thA

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Paci

ficO

EC

D

Cen

tral

Eas

tEur

ope

Form

erSo

viet

Uni

on

Plan

nedA

siaC

hina

Sout

hAsi

a

Oth

erPa

cifi

cAsi

a

Mid

Eas

tNor

thA

fric

a

Lat

inA

mer

icaC

arib

SubS

ahar

anA

fric

a

Animal Calories Share compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030 (in %)







SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

FOOD SECURITY


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Prevalence of Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (%)

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5

Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9



200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)

Number of Undernourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (in Million)

Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5

Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9



20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)


GrowthGrowth,Bioen.



bioenergyyield

taxTax & yield


30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

From 2005 to 2030 (in %)





bioenergy

yield


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Blo

bal B

ioen

ergy

Lev

el (

in E

J)

Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (in % of total population)

Bioenergy versus Food Security for Scenario Growth, Bioenergy, No Deforestation

No Growth

Growth 100% of 2030


All regions are affected

Food consumption and food composition are affected

Non linear effects

Bioenergy emphasizes the degradation of the nutritional situation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Technical progress overcomes the negative impact on both food consumption and food composition only if deforestation is allowed.

Overview of the Results


A competitive market is assumed. Institutional or infrastructure related developments are ignored

overestimation

No endogenous revenue from the agricultural sector due to increasing food prices and production of bioenergy

underestimation

Major Limitations


ConclusionNON-FOOD USE

DEFORESTATION FOOD SECURITY

The model can deliver possible combination of the different outputs (production frontiers)

Determining the optimal development pathway requires to define priorities based on social value of the competing outputs


Thank you

Chris Llull a , Uwe A. Schneider a,b , Petr Havlik b ,

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