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Managing Catastrophe

Observations Of

A Canadian Peacekeeper In Haiti On 12 January 2010

And Potential Application Towards Project Management

Chris Haché, MSM, CD, PMPLieutenant Commander

Canadian Forces Maritime Warfare Centre

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Learning Objectives

• Creating a risk matrix that is truly reflective of your risk environment

• Adapting to immediate changes in the triple constraints

• Managing increases to project complexity

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Disclaimer

• The views and opinions expressed herein are my own based on my personal observations and perspectives

• My views are not necessarily reflective of or are endorsed by the Royal Canadian Navy, the Canadian Forces, the Government of Canada, the United Nations or my spouse

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Online Resources

• Public Safety Canada

• A guide to business continuity planning

• Nova Scotia Emergency Management Office

• Business Continuity Management

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Creating A Risk Matrix That Is Truly Reflective

Of Your Risk Environment

Creating A Risk Matrix That Is Truly Reflective

Of Your Risk Environment

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Risk Environment

• Understanding your physical environment

• Team impacts

• Security / emergency services

• Infrastructure

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Understand Your Environment

• Emergency services

• Much applicable across industry

• How it can affect you

• Personally

• Entering an affected area

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Team Impact• Loss of critical members

• Loss of critical mass

• Effect on team efficiency• Family loss, disabilities,

injuries, trauma, etc.

• Environmental effects• Breathing, drinking, eating,

sanitation

• Acclimatization for new members

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Security / Emergency Services

• Requirements

• Police, fire, medical, military

• Damage to prisons & jails

• Impact on security levels

• Civil disobedience

• Civil unrest

• Internal conflict

• External conflict

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Infrastructure

• Requirements

• Power, water, fuel, heat, etc.

• New products, repairs, spares, etc.

• Effects to transportation

• Vehicles, roads, rail, air, seaports, etc.

• Debris

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Risk Matrix• UN knew of risk

• Hotel (HQ) was a known risk entity

• Executives concentrated in one location

• Earthquake caused by undiscovered fault

• How detailed is your matrix?

• Interrelationships of risk matrices

11221122

Adapting To Immediate Changes In The Triple

Constraints

Adapting To Immediate Changes In The Triple

Constraints

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Adapting The Triple Constraints

• (Integration / Communications)

• Scope

• Time

• Cost

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Project Charter• Originally UNSC Resolution 1529

(2004)

• Originally 8,322 military and police

• UNSC Resolution 1908 (2010)

• Military – from 6,940 to 8,940 (+2,000)

• UNPOL – from 2,211 to 3,711 (+1,500)

• Ensure safe and secure environment

• Implied task – provide relief

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Stakeholder Analysis• Citizens!

• UN Organizations

• OCHA, UNICEF, WFP, UNHCR, etc.

• International Military

• Over 20

• Integrated / arms length

• International NGOs / Charities

• Dozens / Hundreds

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Requirements• Maintain secure environment

• Integration with foreign security partners

• Integration with NGOs - security and distribution

• Responding to debris concerns

• Responding to sanitation concerns - IDP camps, mass burials

• Responding to stakeholder concerns (e.g., UNESCO)

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Time

• ASAP!

• Three main period identified

• Emergency/Rescue

• Recovery

• Improvement

• Determining activity resources/durations

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Cost

• Initially not a significant concern

• Opportunity

• Land owners

• Trades industries

• Employment Programs

• Cash For Work

• Cash For Food And Work

11991199

Managing Increases To Project

Complexity

Managing Increases To Project

Complexity

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Managing Increased Complexity

• Quality

• HR

• Communications

• Risk

• Procurement

• DATA!!!

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Quality

• Measuring effects

• Rioting levels

• Security incidents

• Personnel migration

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Human Resources

• 2000 troops / 1500 police

• Composition / requirements matrix

• Security? Engineering? Specialists? Optimal ratio?

• Rapid indoctrination

• Modifications to other documents

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Communications

• Communications matrix is key

• Appropriate method for each stakeholder

• Radio

• Cell phone (SMS)

• Television

• Web

• Manage expectations

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Risk• Re-evaluate risk matrix

• New items may be present

• Severity / impact may have changed

• Not all risk events are bad

• Extra attention / assistance

• More health projects (water, medical)

• Economic development

• Innovative business opportunities

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Procurement• Land

• Extra footprint of incoming troops

• IDP

• Debris

• Logistical Issues

• Ready-use stores

• Ramp-up of suppliers

• Landing areas

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Data!!!• Significant Impact

• Loss of computer servers on same site

• Infrequent backups

• Even offsite susceptible

• Could be equally affected)

22772277

Criteria For SuccessCriteria For Success

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Criteria for Success (1)• Robust risk analysis /

detailed planning

• Identification of reliance & interdependency

• Potential partnerships

• Haiti had the world

• Measures to assess catastrophe impact

• Adequate response

• Exercise the plan

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Criteria for Success (2)• Empowerment

• Provide strategic direction & let teams work

• Lessens personal impact (keeping people busy)

• Capture identified lessons

• Generate lessons learned

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SummarySummary

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Learning Objectives• Creating a risk

matrix that is truly reflective of your risk environment

• Adapting to immediate changes in the triple constraints

• Managing increases to project complexity

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Take-Away Tool

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Contact Information

Chris Haché, MSM, CD, PMP

Lieutenant CommanderCanadian Forces

Maritime Warfare Centre

(902) 721-8482 (w)chris.hache@forces.gc.cachrishache@hotmail.co

m

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Take-Away ToolBonus MaterialTake-Away ToolBonus Material

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Calculating Risk

• Risk is the estimate of injury or gain/loss, defined as a measure of the probability and severity of an event

• Risk has two components

• Probability – the probability or frequency of the event occurring

• Severity – the impact if the event occurs

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Risk Can Be Good!Pro

babili

ty

Severity

Highest Risk

Lowest Risk

Exploitatio

n

Remainder of

presentation will

focus on negative

risk…

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“Traditional” Risk MatrixPro

babili

ty

Severity

Highest Risk

Lowest Risk

Mitigatio

n

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Risk Indices

• Probability

1. Improbable

2. Remote

3. Occasional

4. Probable

5. Frequent

• Consequences

1. Negligible

2. Marginal

3. Significant

4. Critical

5. Catastrophic

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ProbabilityImprobabl

eSo unlikely it may not be experienced

Remote Unlikely, but could possibly occur in the life of the project

Occasional Unlikely, but can be reasonably expected to occur in the life of the project

Probable Will occur several times in the life of the project

Frequent Likely to occur regularly

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Consequences - Negligible

• Personnel

• Minor impact / minor first aid, no appreciable change in productivity

• Infrastructure

• Minor damage, limited & temporary loss of some non-critical resources

• Project

• Minor degradation / project continues as scheduled

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Consequences - Marginal

• Personnel

• Single minor injury or temporary disability, emergency medical treatment

• Infrastructure

• Moderate damage, moderate &/or longer loss of some non-critical resources, possible minor/temporary impact on critical resources

• Project

• Certain aspects of the project will be notably over on time/scope/cost, project continues

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Consequences - Significant

• Personnel

• Single severe or permanent injury, multiple minor injuries or disabilities

• Infrastructure

• Major damage, temporary loss of critical resources, requires specialized repair teams

• Project

• Single significant project element failure but with workarounds - may be unsuitable to continue

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Consequences - Critical• Personnel

• Single death / multiple severe injuries / multiple permanent disabilities

• Infrastructure

• Severe damage, extended loss of critical resources, requires specialized repair teams

• Project

• Multiple significant project element failures but with workarounds, likely unsuitable to continue

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Consequences - Catastrophic

• Personnel

• Multiple deaths

• Infrastructure

• Damaged beyond repair

• Project

• Irrecoverable project failure and inability to continue

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Risk Levels•Acceptable (without review)

•No further action required

A

•Acceptable With Review

•Tolerable but must be reviewed by the project team on a periodic basis

R

•Undesirable

•Should only be tolerated if risk reduction is impractical

U

•Intolerable

•Intolerable – risk is to be reduced / transferred or else the project should be cancelled

I

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Risk Matrix

5

4

3

2

1

NegligibleMarginalSignificantCriticalCatastrophic

R U I I I

R R U I I

A R U U I

A A R U U

A A A R R

Pro

babili

ty

Consequences

1 2 4 5

Frequent

Probable

Occasional

Remote

Improbable

3

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Risk Mitigation / Controls

• To reduce risk levels, you must:

• Reduce the frequency and/or

• Reduce the severity

• Eliminate, reduce, transfer, share, etc.

• If risk level has not dropped, then inappropriate / inadequate controls being used

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Example

• Risk – Documentation on the plan no longer exists (server room collapsed)

• Probability: Remote

• Severity: Critical (Project)

• Risk Assessment Undesirable

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Example (continued)

• Risk Mitigation/Controls:

• Off-site server backup, cloud computing, DVD backups

• Probability: Remote

• Severity: Negligible (Project)

• Residual Risk Assessment

• Acceptable

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Risk Posture After Controls

FrequentProbable

OccasionalRemote

Improbable

Catastrophic

Critical

Marginal

Negligible

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Before Controls

FrequentProbable

OccasionalRemote

Improbable

Catastrophic

Critical

Marginal

Negligible

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

After Controls

The number of risks have not changed,but the risk levels have!