Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited Strong Headwinds...

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited

Strong Headwinds Ahead Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Bloomberg ││││ Reuters ││││ POEMS 1929 HK ││││ 1929.HK ││││ 1929.HK Industry: Watches & Jewellery

Phil lip Securities Research

23 July 2012

Report type: Annual Results Rating: Reduce Closing Price: HK$9.2 ││││Target Price HK$7.82 Company Overview Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited (Chow Tai Fook) is a leading jewellery manufacturer, wholesaler and retailer based in China, Hong Kong and Macau. Chow Tai Fook possess a retail network of 1,541 jewellery points of sale (POS) and 86 watch POS as at 31 March 2012. China is the major market of Chow Tai Fook, accounting for 57.0% of total turnover, followed by Hong Kong, Macau and other Asian markets, which accounted for the rest. The Company’s principal products included mass luxury and high-end luxury jewellery products including gem-set jewellery, platinum/karat gold products, gold products and watches. Strong headwinds ahead Despite the rosy FY2012 results, Chow Tai Fook is facing well-flagged headwinds in FY2013. The Company announced the 1Q2013 operational data on 11 July 2012. The Company has lost momentum on same stores sales growth (SSSG). The 1Q2013 SSSG of China market, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan market and total revenue were merely 7%, 5% and 6% respectively, far below the FY2012 record. In addition, revenue from Gem-set jewellery accounted for 22 percent of the 1Q2013 total revenue, which is less than the FY2012 result. This reduction is likely to have an adverse impact on the Company’s gross profit margin. As a result we expected FY2013 would be a tough year for the Company. Summary We forecast the leading P/E of Chow Tai Fook to be 9.86x and EPS of HKD$0.79. The current price of HK$9.2 and an implied leading P/E of 11.6x, represent a 15% downside risk. We downgrade our rating on Chow Tai Fook with a 12-month target price of HK$7.82 with a “Reduce” rating.

Research Analyst Philip Mok [email protected] +852 2277 6609

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 23 July 2012

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Market analysis- The Hong Kong retail market After years of robust growth in the Hong Kong retail sector, the Jan – May 2012 data shows that the growth of Hong Kong retail sector began to slack off in 2012. The data from Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR shows that the y/y growth rate of the sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts slipped noticeably alongside the y/y growth rate of sales of all retail outlets. We believe the reduction in growth rate was fueled by (i) high base effect in sales value in 2011 (ii) contractive monetary policy in China (iii) the gloomy global economies. As we have yet seen any solution for the current financial woe, we expect the strong headwind will persist from FY2013 to FY2014. Fig. 1a Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales HK

Sources: Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR Fig. 1b Report on Monthly Survey of Retail Sales HK

Sources: Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR Market analysis- Gold market Gold has experience a phenomenal bull market from 2008 to 2011. Spot gold escalated from the 900 USD/t oz. to 1800 USD/t oz., representing a CAGR of 26%. Meanwhile, revenue of Chow Tai Fook surged from HK$18,410.9 million to HK$56,571.1 million over the same period, representing a CAGR of 45%. The prolonged bull market of gold played a key role of the success of Chow Tai Fook. A buoyant gold price boosted the average selling price of Chow Tai Fook’s product. Equally important it spurred the consumer’s demand in gold products. We are wary for the short term prospect of the Company albeit its past success. Gold price has abated and lost its momentum since 2012. The future trend of gold remains vague and the end of the gold bull market would be a big woe to the Company.

Fig. 2 Gold Spot (USD/t oz.)

Sources: Bloomberg Growth analysis – Stores opening Stores opening have always been the major growth driver of the Company. From FY2009 to FY2012, the Company’s point of sales (POS) increased from 965 to 1,627, representing a CAGR of 19%. Chow Tai Fook deployed a 'Hybrid' expansion model. Chow Tai Fook’s POS can classify into self-operated (wholly owned and joint venture) and franchise, which generally operate as standalone stores or concessionaire counters. This model enables the Company to maintain its high expansion pace with limited capital expenditure. However, the abated gold market hindered the investors’ appetite of committing in the jewellery business. Although the Company’s management targets a total of 2,000 POS by the end of FY2014, we trimmed our forecast on new stores opening due to the vague gold market outlook. Fig. 3 Stores opening forecast

Sources: Company, PSR Est. Growth analysis – SSSG SSSG is another growth engine of the Company. From FY2009 to FY2012, the Company’s SSSG was robust, averaging an annual rate of 30%. This growth stemmed from the buoyant average selling price and consumers’ demand. However, the 1Q2012 SSSG was lackluster with a merely 6% growth rate. We remain optimistic to the long-term


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prospect of the Company, but the current headwinds must not be neglected. Hence we trimmed out forecast on SSSG in FY2013 and expected a moderate improvement in FY2014. Fig. 4 SSSG forecast

Sources: Company, PSR Est. Financial analysis We have two major concerns over the financial position of the Company. First, Chow Tai Fook recorded negative operating cash flow in FY2011 and FY2012. It was due to the hike in inventory level which caught up with the Company’s expansion pace. Chow Tai Fook raised a net amount of HK$15,387.3 million through the Initial Public Offering and this would mitigate this problem, but it remains the major risk for investors. Secondly, we are wary of the shift of product mix. Thanks to the gold price hedging mechanism of the Company, Chow Tai Fook enjoys a fairly stable gross profit margin over the track record. However, the latest shifts of the product mix (a reduction in the revenue proportion from Gem-set jewellery to topline revenue) would result in a minor squeeze in GPM. Fig. 5 Gross profit margin

Sources: Company, PSR Est.

Valuation We forecast the leading P/E of Chow Tai Fook to be 9.85x and EPS of HKD$0.79. The current price of HK$9.2 and an implied leading P/E of 11.6x, represent a 15% downside risk. We downgrade our rating on Chow Tai Fook with a 12-month target price of HK$7.82 with a “Reduce” rating.


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We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

© 2012 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited

Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price

+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price

<-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price


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