Seminar on Dynamic Graphics for Presenting Statistical Indicators
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Transcript of Choices in statistical graphics: My storiesgelman/presentations/vistalk_meetup_new... · Choices in...
Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Andrew GelmanDepartment of Statistics and Department of Political Science
Columbia University
New York Data Visualization Meetup14 Jan 2013
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
My earlier talk on tradeoffs in statistical graphics
I Originally: Infoviz vs. stat graphicsI The best information visualizations are grabby, visually strikingI The best statistical graphics reveal patterns and discrepanciesI Different goals, different looks
I Lots of negative reactionsI (Some) infofiz people felt we were trivializing their workI (Some) statisticians felt we gave infofiz too much respect
I Our new theme: tradeoffs in statistical graphics
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
We did not come to mock . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Instead, compare a bare-bones infographic . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
To a corresponding statistical graphic . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Another example . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
The statistician’s version . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
A legendary early infographic . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
How we would display it . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
For those of you reading this talk off the web
I I’m not saying that the boring plots (constructed by Antony Unwin andmyself using R) are better than Florence Nightingale’s beautiful images!
I Rather, I’m saying that Nightingale’s graphic and ours serve different
purposes:
I She dramatizes the problem with a unique andvisually-appealing image that draws the casual viewer in deeper
I We display the data to reveal patterns, for viewers who arealready interested in the problem
I In any case, this is not my main point today. We’ll spend most of ourtime discussing the choices involved in graphs that I’ve made over theyears.
I Now, back to our regularly scheduled presentation . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
General theme
I All graphs are comparisons
I All of statistics are comparisons
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Specific recommendations
I Multiple plots per page (small multiples)
I Don’t clutter each plot
I Line plots are great—they facilitate more comparisons
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Don’t clutter each plot: example
From Graph Design for the Eye and Mind by Stephen Kosslyn:
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Redo using small multiples!
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Line plots: Cleveland’s principle
I Always ask: What is the comparison?
I Example: an analysis from market research
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Improvement?
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Line plot is better
Consider the comparisons you can make!
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Statistics is . . .
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Today’s talk
I (Some of) my examples from (nearly) 30 years of appliedresarch
I Choices involved in making the graphs
I What works, what doesn’t, and why
I You must participate!
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1984: “The effects of solar flares on single event upsetrates”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1984: “The effects of solar flares on single event upsetrates”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1986: “Reduced subboundary misalignment in SOI filmsscanned at low velocities”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1989: “Constrained maximum entropy methods in animage reconstruction problem”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1990: “Estimating the electoral consequences of legislativeredistricting”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1990: “Estimating the electoral consequences of legislativeredistricting”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1990: “Estimating the electoral consequences of legislativeredistricting”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1991: “Systemic consequences of incumbency advantagein U.S. House elections”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2008: “Estimating incumbency advantage and itsvariation, as an example of a before/after study”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2008: “Estimating incumbency advantage and itsvariation, as an example of a before/after study”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1992: “Inference from iterative simulation using multiplesequences”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1992: “Inference from iterative simulation using multiplesequences”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1993: “Why are American Presidential election campaignpolls so variable when votes are so predictable?”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1993: “Why are American Presidential election campaignpolls so variable when votes are so predictable?”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1994: “Enhancing democracy through legislativeredistricting”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1995: “Pre-election survey methodology: details from ninepolling organizations, 1988 and 1992”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1996: “Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis usingpopulation modeling and informative prior distributions”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1996: “Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis usingpopulation modeling and informative prior distributions”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1996: “Physiological pharmacokinetic analysis usingpopulation modeling and informative prior distributions”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1997: “Poststratification into many categories usinghierarchical logistic regression”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1998: “Estimating the probability of events that havenever occurred: When is your vote decisive?”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2009: “The probability your vote will make a difference”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
1999: “All maps of parameter estimates are misleading”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2000: “Type S error rates for classical and Bayesian singleand multiple comparison procedures”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2002: “A probability model for golf putting”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2003: “Forming voting blocs and coalitions as a prisoner’sdilemma: a possible theoretical explanation for politicalinstability”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2004: “Standard voting power indexes don’t work”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2005: “Multiple imputation for model checking:completed-data plots with missing and latent data”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2006: “The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin flip”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2007: “An analysis of the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk policy inthe context of claims of racial bias”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2009: “Beautiful political data”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2010: “Public opinion on health care reform”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2010: “Public opinion on health care reform”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2011: “Tables as graphs: The Ramanujan principle”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2012: “Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2013: “Election turnout and voting patterns”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
2013: “Election turnout and voting patterns”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Notes
I Gradual improvements in technique . . . and understanding
I Often, what we’re plotting is not “data”
I Research vs. publications: “Let me tell you about my firstwife”
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Take-home points
I Small multiples
I Line plots
I Try to make a display self-contained, then add words
I Graphs are comparisons
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories
Some references
Andrew Gelman and Antony Unwin (2013). Infovis and statistical graphics: Differentgoals, different looks (with discussion by Stephen Few, Robert Kosara, Paul Murrell,and Hadley Wickham, and rejoinder by Gelman and Unwin). Journal of Computationaland Graphical Statistics. [Our current views on tradeoffs in statistical graphics]
Andrew Gelman (2004). Exploratory data analysis for complex models (with discussionby Andreas Buja and rejoinder by Gelman). Journal of Computational and GraphicalStatistics 13, 755–787. [An expression of the idea that exploratory graphics are a formof model checking: the better the model, the more effective the graphics. Thus,statistical modeling and graphics are not competitors (as is often thought) but canwork together.]
Andrew Gelman (2003). A Bayesian formulation of exploratory data analysis andgoodness-of-fit testing. International Statistical Review 71, 369–382. [A more formalexploration of the unity between statistical graphics and Bayesian modeling.]
Andrew Gelman, Cristian Pasarica, and Rahul Dodhia (2002). Let’s practice what wepreach: turning tables into graphs. American Statistician 56, 121–130. [Proof ofconcept: we went through an issue of the Journal of the American StatisticalAssociation and converted all the tables into graphs, in each case displaying all theinformation using less space.]
Andrew Gelman and Gary King (1993). Why are American Presidential electioncampaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? British Journal of PoliticalScience 23, 409–451. [We resolved in writing this paper to do all the analysis usinggraphs, no tables. It worked well: we told a story and backed it up with evidence.]
Andrew Gelman Choices in statistical graphics: My stories