Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures...
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Transcript of Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures...
Choices for the Choices for the FutureFuture
A Presentation on the A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Willamette Valley
Alternative Transportation Alternative Transportation Futures Project Futures Project
Transportation and Land Use Planning Transportation and Land Use Planning
Applications ForumApplications Forum
Gainesville, FloridaGainesville, FloridaOctober 19, 2001October 19, 2001
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview
• What Prompted This Project?
• What were our Objectives?
• How did we carryout the Project?
• What did we Learn?
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Origins of Oregon’s Land Use Origins of Oregon’s Land Use ProgramProgram
• Concerns over: Concerns over: – loss of farm and forest landloss of farm and forest land
– sprawlsprawl
– environmental impacts of growthenvironmental impacts of growth
• Senate Bill 100Senate Bill 100
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Key Provisions of SB 100Key Provisions of SB 100
• 19 Planning Goals dealing with a 19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including:range of issues including:– housing, transportation, urbanization, housing, transportation, urbanization,
farm and forest landfarm and forest land
• Establishment of Urban Growth Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s)Boundaries (UGB’s)
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Beyond SB 100Beyond SB 100
• Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”
• Willamette Valley EffortsWillamette Valley Efforts– Partnership for Valley Future Conference Partnership for Valley Future Conference
(Oregon Progress Board)(Oregon Progress Board) - 1994 - 1994– Willamette Valley Transportation StrategyWillamette Valley Transportation Strategy - 1995 - 1995– Willamette Valley Livability ForumWillamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996 - 1996
The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80 Membersof Over 80 Members
• Forum Purpose - Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and solutions to growth and development issues in the Valleydevelopment issues in the Valley
• Forum Goals:Forum Goals:• Share informationShare information• Make connectionsMake connections• Build a visionBuild a vision• Advise state and local officialsAdvise state and local officials
OpportunityOpportunity
• Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research ConsortiumConsortium– Willamette River Basin Case StudyWillamette River Basin Case Study
• 1000 Friends of Oregon1000 Friends of Oregon– Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research ProjectWillamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project
• ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model
Alternative Transportation Futures Project
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
PurposePurpose
2) Identify policy choices 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth future impacts of growth on transportation.on transportation.
1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Guided by a 14-member ProjectGuided by a 14-member ProjectSteering CommitteeSteering Committee
Jon ChandlerJon Chandler, , OBIA OBIA
Chris HagerbaumerChris Hagerbaumer,, OTRANOTRAN
Bob CortrightBob Cortright, , DLCDDLCD
Gary JohnsonGary Johnson, , ODOTODOT Ed GallagherEd Gallagher,, Governor's Comm. Governor's Comm.
Dev. OfficeDev. Office
Craig GreenleafCraig Greenleaf, , ODOTODOT
Robert LibertyRobert Liberty, , 1000 Friends of Oregon 1000 Friends of Oregon Bob RussellBob Russell,, OHUAOHUA
Richard Brandman, Metro
Susan Brody, WVLF
Marcia KelleyMarcia Kelley, , MWACTMWACT
Tom SchwetzTom Schwetz, , LCOGLCOGMike Propes, Mike Propes, Polk County Polk County Joan Baker, EPA
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
ApproachApproach
• Used state-of-art computer modeling Used state-of-art computer modeling techniquestechniques
• Simulated effects of alternative land use Simulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a wholeas a whole
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Integrated StatewideIntegrated StatewideComputer ModelComputer Model
Analytical tool to help Analytical tool to help understand complex understand complex interactions among interactions among Oregon’s economy, land Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and use patterns, and transportation systemtransportation system
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Scope of Integrated ModelScope of Integrated Model• Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon
such as the effects of:such as the effects of:– Land use and transportation policies on population and employment
distributions;– Land use on travel behavior;– Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use;– Transit investments on highway use; and– Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation
and land use.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
122-Analysis Zone Structure122-Analysis Zone Structure
Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Economic Submodel Calculates Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic activityoverall economic activity
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Location Submodel Allocates Location Submodel Allocates population and employment growthpopulation and employment growth
AB
C
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Transportation Submodel Calculates travel Transportation Submodel Calculates travel resulting from movement of goods/svcsresulting from movement of goods/svcs
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Policy Choices ConsideredPolicy Choices Considered
• Land available for development
• Investments in highways and transit
• Cost of driving
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Evaluated Seven ScenariosEvaluated Seven Scenarios• Created scenarios with distinct Created scenarios with distinct
differences to facilitate evaluation of differences to facilitate evaluation of resultsresults
• Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-year incrementsyear increments
• Used same statewide population and Used same statewide population and employment forecastsemployment forecasts
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Framework for ScenariosFramework for ScenariosNo Action
Mile Tax
Compact Dev
Transit
& Hwy
Hybrids 1&2
Land Use Measures
Dem
and
Managem
ent
Sys
tem
Impr
ovem
ents
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
What have we What have we learned ?learned ?
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
There’s No Silver BulletThere’s No Silver Bullet
Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
We can have an effect on just how crowded We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.highways will become in years ahead.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.
Average Willamette Valley Traffic Congestion Between Cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Pe
rce
nt I
ncr
ea
se O
ver
20
00
Le
vels
No Action
Compact
Highway
Transit
Tax
Hybrid 1
Hybrid 2
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
• Transit:– Transportation pricing increases transit ridership.– Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit
encourages more use.
• Freight:– The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for
truck freight mobility– Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater
extent than passenger travel.
Other Key FindingsOther Key Findings
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Effects on Population and Effects on Population and Employment DistributionEmployment Distribution
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Overall FindingsOverall Findings• No single approach (more efficient land use, No single approach (more efficient land use,
infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids).combination of these approaches (Hybrids).
• The model results confirm the interconnection The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning.for transportation planning.
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Wrap-upWrap-up
• Process LessonsProcess Lessons
• CriticismsCriticisms
• Things to improveThings to improve
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Process LessonsProcess Lessons
• Changes the Nature of the Planning QuestionChanges the Nature of the Planning Question
• Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s – Process is ExperientialProcess is Experiential
• Brings home the limits of public policyBrings home the limits of public policy
• Value is in exploring broader causes and effectsValue is in exploring broader causes and effects
• Decision Decision aidingaiding, not decision , not decision makingmaking
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
CriticismsCriticisms
• Complex relationships defy modeling for current Complex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole statestate
• Highly abstracted results are easily Highly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groupsmisused/misunderstood by interest groups
• Avoids more difficult and detailed planning Avoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short runneeded in the short run
Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum
Effort currently under way to improve robustness of statewide model by:
Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and expanding detail of transportation network
Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge.
Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods
Representing economic interactions between Oregonand rest of the nation.
Next GenerationNext Generation
For more information, For more information, visit the Willamette Valley visit the Willamette Valley
Livability Forum’s Livability Forum’s web site at:web site at:
www.wvlf.org/atf.htmlwww.wvlf.org/atf.html