Chloralkali Feedstock Dynamics, Trends and Forecasts ... Feedstock Dynamics, Trends a… · In...

I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020

Salt Partners

Vladimir M. Sedivy MSc (Hons) Chem Eng, IMD

President

Salt Partners Ltd, Erlenbach ZH, Switzerland

Chloralkali Feedstock Dynamics, Trends and Forecasts

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In January 2020, Tecnon OrbiChem asked us whether we would make a presentation at the 24th World Chloralkali Conference in Singapore.

We said, yes.

In the meantime, the Corona virus changed the plans.

So, welcome to this virtual recording.

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Salt Partners Welcome!

What is the chloralkali feedstock dynamics?

• Chloralkali feedstock is salt (NaCl);

• Dynamics is the development with time;

• It is the understanding of the driving forces;

• And finally, it is the prediction of future supply / demand and production / consumption of salt.

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Salt Partners Contents


Salt PartnersHow did the world salt production develop?

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1970 1980 1990

World total (tons) 146'600'000 172’800'000 187’200'000

2020e

338’000'000

2000 2010

World total (tons) 216’600'000 282’600'000

Sources: USGS (Ref. 1), BGS, Roskill, Salt Partners

World salt production 1970 – 2020:


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50'000'000

100'000'000

150'000'000

200'000'000

250'000'000

300'000'000

350'000'000

400'000'000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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World Salt Production 1970 - 2019

Production published till 2016

Production revised in 2017



Poly. (Production published till 2016)

Average annual growth rate = 1.71%

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Between 1970 – 2020

• The world salt production grew from 100% to 231%;

• The average annual growth rate was 1.71%;

• Almost 40% was consumed for chlorine production;

• Almost 20% was consumed for production of soda ash;

• The rest was consumed for other purposes.


Salt Partners How was the world salt production consumed?

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Between 1970 – 2020

The world population grew:

• from: 3’701’000’000 in 1970 • to: 7’808’000’000 in 2020 or,

• from: 100% in 1970 • to: 211% in 2020

• The average annual growth rate was 1.41%


Salt Partners What was the driving force behind the growth?


Salt PartnersHow did the salt consumption per capita develop?

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1970 1980 1990

Consumption (g/person/day) 109 106 96

Sources: USGS (Ref. 1), UN DESA Population Division (Ref. 2)

2000 2010 2020e

Consumption (g/person/day) 97 111 118

World per capita salt consumption 1970 – 2020:


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20

40

60

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

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Year

World salt consumption per capita

Average annual growth rate = 0.2%

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Between 1970 – 2020 the salt consumption per capita

• Fluctuated between 90 and 120 g/person/day; • Grew by 0.2% per annum – was almost constant;• Generaly, physiological salt intake is 5 g/person/day;• 95% was consumed for chloralkali and other purposes.

Conclusion: Driving force behind the salt production growth is the population growth.


Salt Partners Driving force behind salt production growth

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Provided that

• Population growth rate will not change significantly; • Chlorine consumption per ton of PVC will not change;• Caustic consumption per ton of aluminium will not change;• Soda ash consumption per ton of glass will not change,

the salt requirement in 2029 will be 400’000’000 tpa, 82’000’000 tons more than today, which will need to be produced.


Salt Partners What will be the salt requirement in 2029?

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10%

20%

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70%

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100%

-200'000'000

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400'000'000

500'000'000

600'000'000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

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World Salt Production Capacity and Forecasts 2010-2029

Production published till 2016 Production revised in 2017

Production revised in 2018 Production revised in 2019

Production projected 2020-2029 Production capacity 2010-2019

Production capacity required 2020-2029 World new projects announced

World projected production capacity deficit New project announcements needed

Capacity utilisation, average 76% Poly. (Production revised in 2019)

Linear (Capacity utilisation, average 76%)


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2014 2015 2016

Total announced (t/y) 20’000’000 22’000’000 20’000’000

Sources: Roskill, Salt Partners, private communication

2017 2018 2019

Total announced (t/y) 34’000’000 48’000’000 72’000’000

What new salt projects have been announced?

Announced salt projects are shown as full green line on the forecast chart.

New salt projects announced 2014 – 2019

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Assuming that

• Salt production capacity utilisation rate is 76%; • Salt projects take 6 years from announcement to production;• 50% of announced projects will be actually implemented,

significantly more additional salt projects will have to be initiated than has been announced to date.


Salt Partners What must be done to satisfy the growing demand?


Salt Partners

In addition to the projects announced up to 2019, the following new projects need to be initiated to satisfy future demand:

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2015 2016 2017

Additions needed (t/y) 10’000’000 28’000’000 30’000’000

2018 2019 2020


How much more salt production capacity is needed?

Required additional projects are shown as dotted green line on the forecast chart.

2021 2022 2023


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Our view is that

• Insufficient salt production capacity leads to salt shortage; • Shortage increases profitability of salt production;• Higher profitability attracts investments;• New capacities facilitate higher production.

Present forecasts predict that only minimum salt price changes will occur, just in line with inflation.


Salt Partners How will salt prices develop?

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Prices are the best guarded secrets. However:

• Salt in solution mined brine is least expensive at USD 6/t; • Rock salt cost USD 10-15/t at mine, FOT (free on truck);• High quality solar salt from Australia cost USD 18-25/t FOB;• Vacuum salt in bulk prices are between USD 60-90/t FOT;• Dry packaged salt is much more expensive;• Suprapure®, >99.999 NaCl cost almost USD 1’000/kg


Salt Partners What are the salt prices today?

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There are three basic options:

• Build a new grass roots plant. Most expensive. See Ref. 3;

• Expand existing capacity. Brown roots is less expensive;

• Increase productivity. Least expensive and most effective.

HYDROSAL-XP® technology can increase productivity by 14-17% and improve quality.


Salt Partners How to increase salt production capacity?


Salt Partners

100 t/h industrial HYDROSAL-F rock salt upgrading plant in Spain

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Salt Partners

40 t/h THERMOSAL recrystallised rock salt upgrading plant in Portugal producing purest industrial salt in Europe

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Performance test

Ca ppm 0.6

Mg ppm 0.2

SO4 ppm 53

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Ref. 1: US Geological Survey: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/salt/;

Ref. 2: World population: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

Ref. 3: Mardie salt and potash project: http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/BCI/02250069.pdf.


Salt Partners References

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Salt Partners How to secure salt availability and cost?

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Salt Partners Ernst Solvay’s Scientific Council

Metropole, Brussels, 1911: Planck, Solvay, Lorentz, Poincare, de Broglie, Currie, Rutherford, Einstein, Langevin, & Co.

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Salt Partners What was Ernst Solvay’s advice?

Salt PartnersWhy not turn your salt into gold?

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SALT PARTNERS


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