Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts
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Transcript of Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Chinook Stock MonitoringSpawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts
James P. Losee, Larry PhillipsWDFW
Craig Smith, Nano Perez NIT
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Spawning surveys-objective
▫Estimate weir efficiency▫Estimate escapement
Total abundance Sex ratios Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin
▫Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status)▫Habitat monitoring
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Weekly sampling (7-10 days)
•Raft and Foot
•August 28-October 29
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Spawning surveys-methods
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
• Live▫Mark status▫Sex
•Dead▫Species, Length, Sex▫Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags▫Biological Data
fin clip (genetic stock ID) otoliths (habitat use) scales (age composition) GPS and egg retention
•Redd mark and record location
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Spawning surveys-methods
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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12.5 (Weir)
39.2 (Mashel R.)
26.2
21.6 (McKenna)
3.2 (Riverbend Campground)
6.6 (Eatonville)
Nisqually Watershed
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Mckenna to weir: 11, 3UMNB, 8AD NB26-mckenna: 4, UMNB, 1 prespawnMuck: 37, 3 UMNB, 34 HatcheryAnimate in Jaw taggedYelm creek , 34 hatchery 6 no
Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
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11
4
12 131
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses
12.5 (Weir)
43%88%
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
8Add other carcass locations +jaw tag
Jaw Tag Recoveries
12.5 (Weir)
22% of non-marked fish recovered above weir were jaw tagged.
5 jaw tags of 23 non marked carcasses above weir
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986) ▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D)
•Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982)▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in
fishery-%marked at weir)▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata)
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WeirFishery Hatchery
Escapement Estimates
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates
6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak)
Return Year
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Es
cap
emen
t E
stim
ate
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural OriginChange-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035
Traditional 245 134 111
Change-in-Ratio
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Estimation of sport catch
•Creel Survey Data▫CWT recoveries▫Mark vs. Unmark (retained and
released)▫Age composition (scales)▫Genetic Stock ID (tissue samples)
•Catch Record Card Data▫Species retained▫Mark status
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Forecasting 201412
Brood Year # Fry Released Survival1996 4,395,000 0.86%1997 3,257,000 0.18%1998 3,319,476 0.97%1999 4,276,895 0.75%2000 3,275,907 0.83%2001 4,097,466 0.39%2002 3,514,024 0.96%2003 4,166,184 0.75%2004 3,443,874 1.21%2005 3,876,056 0.52%2006 4,376,957 0.43%2007 4,322,815 1.40%2008 4,297,982 0.40%
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% R
etu
rn (
surv
ival
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
VoightsMinter CreekDeschutes R.Nisqually R.White River Spring
Forecasting 2014
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Forecasting 2014
Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total 2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 2252010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 158972011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361
Total 29,630 1,852 31,482
2014 Forecast=31,482
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
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Escapement Method Total EscapementLive Counts 815, 887
Weir Counts 818, 961
Nisqually Pink Salmon
17,305
987, 547Nisqually River Pink Salmon
Total Runsize
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
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11
4
12 131
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
•Continue to monitor the effect of the weir.
•Improve escapement estimate with weir counts.
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Future Directions
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Nisqually Chinook Annual Review
Questions?
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