China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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    Ekc`lreikTi

    ekr

    @LIKIFEL\#\

    RXGR@JU

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreikTi

    ekr

    @LIKIFEL\#\

    RXGR@JU

    Wpgf Cekgklego \`xsel`| Jxipt

    !=08+8=2:+8888 Z`h|er`> zzz+wpgf|`lpxere`|+lif

    C`hxpgxu 8478

    Rm` Lmgoo`kj` ic X`hgogklekj Lmekg| @likifu

    G gz`b ekl`kres` |rxplrpx` mg| lx`gr`b lmxikel be|rixreik| ek x`|ipxl` gooilgreik

    zermek rm` Lmek`|` `likifu gkb g oit|eb`b jxizrm tgrr`xk zmelm e| |pcc`xekj befeke|mekjx`rpxk|+ Hirm rm` 75:4| Ngtgk`|` gkb 7534| \ise`r fib`o| zmelm er hxigbou tgxgoo`o| porefgr`oux`|por`b ek k`r lgtergo b`|rxplreik/ jes`k rm` xe|ekj oghipx gkb eks`|rf`kr ektpr| x`wpex`b t`xpker ic jxizrm+ Rm`u hirm go|i |gz g xe|ekj bes`xj`kl` h`rz``k lik|pftreik gkb eks`|rf`kr|mgx`| ic JBT/ gkb xgrm`x rmgk cilp|ekj ik lifti|er` o`gbekj ekbel`| lixx`ogrekj zerm m`gboek`JBT jxizrm gkb rpxkekj tiekr| ek er| fif`krpf/ er e| rm` eklx`f`krgo lifti|ereik gkb|p|rgekgheoeru ic rmgr jxizrm rmgr fgrr`x| cix eks`|rix|+ Rme| kir` ekrxibpl`| g Lmekg

    X`hgogklekj Ekb`}/ g lifti|er` f`g|px` ic |`s`k a`u `likifel rx`kb|/ zmelm icc`x gk

    ek|ejmr ekrizm`rm`x rm` Lmek`|` `likifu e| `siosekj ek g |p|rgekgho` bex`lreik rizgxbjx`gr`x mip|`miob lik|pftreik)txesgr` |`lrix |`xsel` jxizrm ix cpxrm`x |rxplrpxgo efhgogkl`

    hu `}t`xe`klekj eklx`f`krgo jxizrm bxes`k hu \I@)m`gsu ekbp|rxu)}`b eks`|rf`kr glreseru+

    A`u Tiekr|

    G b`loek` ek rm` zgj` |mgx` ic JBT gkb g xe|` ek rm` tx`lgpreikgxu mip|`miob |gsekj xgrei mg|bxes`k rm` ogxj` cgoo ek rm` x`ogres` |mgx` ic mip|`miob lik|pftreik is`x rm` og|r b`lgb`+ Rm`Lmekg X`hgogklekj Ekb`} -LXE rxgla| lmgkj`| glxi|||`s`k a`u`likifel rx`kb| zmelmx``lr)bxes` rm` |rxplrpxgo |pttx`||eik ic Lmekg| lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT/ xgkjekj cxifrm` X@@X ri rm` x`go b`ti|er xgr` gkb mip|`miob eklif` jxizrm+

    X`hgogklekj ek Lmekg eksios`| g xe|ekj zgj` -gkb lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT/ lpxx`klugttx`legreik ek x`go `cc`lres` r`xf|/ gkb g |p|rgek`b ti|eres` x`go ekr`x`|r xgr`+ Er go|i f`gk|x`s`x|ekj rm` mpj` eftoeler z`gorm rxgk|c`x| cxif rm` mip|`miob |`lrix ri rm` |rgr` gkb

    lixtixgr` |`lrix seg lmxikelgoou be|rixr`b cglrix txel`|+

    \ekl` 8448/ }`b eks`|rf`kr gkb `}tixr| mgs` jxizk rm`ex lifhek`b |mgx` ic JBT hu82 t`xl`krgj` tiekr| s`x|p| mip|`miob lik|pftreik+ @s`k gooizekj cix g oea`ou ikjiekjpkb`x|rgr`f`kr ic rit b`leo` eklif`| gkb rm`x`cix` is`xgoo lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT/ rm` rx`kb|mecr mg| h``k b`|rgheoe|ekj+

    Rm` hpoa ic Lmekg| xgtebou xe|ekj kgreikgo eklif` is`x rm` tg|r b`lgb` mg| h``k bex`lr`bri rm` lixtixgr` |`lrix/ zmelm ek rpxk mg| bex`lr`b er| xe|ekj |pxtop|`| kir ri zgj`| ix

    beseb`kb|/ hpr cpxrm`x eks`|rf`kr+ Zgj` jxizrm ek Lmekg mg| ogjj`b txibplreseru jxizrm pkreos`xu x`l`krou/ zmelm mg| lik|rxgek`b mip|`miob| gheoeru ri lik|pf`/ `s`k ec rm`ex tx`lgpreikgxu|gsekj| z`x` x`bpl`b hu h`rr`x |ilego txise|eik+

    Lmekg/ zmelm ti|r`b rm` mejm`|r txibplreseru jxizrm ic gku fgnix lipkrxu gr =+=% og|r u`gx/

    k`s`xrm`o`|| |gz g |oizbizk ic is`x ik` t`xl`krgj` tiekr u)u1 rm` P\ Likc`x`kl` Higxbrme| u`gx }t`lr| Lmekg| txibplreseru jxizrm ri |oiz ri :+3% ek 8478+ Rirgo cglrix txibplreseru -e+`+akiz miz e| kiz ikou g wpgxr`x ic rm` rirgo/ oghipx cixl` lifti|ereik -e+`+ eftxisekj zixacixl`wpgoeru g k`joejeho` likrxehprix gkb wpgkreru g befeke|mekj ik`/ zerm s`x fix` lgtergo |t`kbekjrm` a`u bxes`x/ zmelm e| gkifgoip| zm`k is`xgoo txibplreseru e| np|r 73% ic P\ o`s`o|+

    Rm` xe|ekj lgtergo ekr`k|eru ic txibplreik is`x rm` og|r b`lgb` |mipob mgs` x`bpl`b rm` x`rpxk| rilgtergo/ |i rmgr rm` rirgo eklif` gllxpekj ri lgtergo |mipob mgs` b`loek`b kipjm ri x`bpl`lgtergo| |mgx` ic eklif` ix a``t er pklmgkj`b+ Hpr ek cglr/ lgtergo| |mgx` ic eklif` z`kr pt|ph|rgkregoou+

    Rirgozgj`| c`oo 74 t`xl`krgj` tiekr| ic JBT ek Lmekg ek 8444&: h`cix` x`lis`xekj |oejmrou|ekl`/ gkbtxir |mgx` xi|` hu g |efeogx gfipkr+ @}l`|| txir| cxif rm` 8447&: `}tixr hiif

    mgs` h``k bex`lr`b ekri `s`x fix` eks`|rf`kr xgrm`x rmgk h`ekj x`be|rxehpr`b g| zgj`xe|`| ix beseb`kb|+ Er| |reoo zeb`ou fe|pkb`x|riib rmgrx`hgogklekj lgkkir mgtt`k zermipr g

    bxgfgrel likrxglreik ek eks`|rf`kr jxizrm1 ek `likifel r`xf|/ er| g ~`xi |pf jgf`+

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 8 ic 7:

    Rxglaekj \rxplrpxgo Lmgkj` ek Lmekg> Rm` Lmekg X`hgogklekj Ekb`} -LXE

    Rm` LXE e| gk `wpgoou z`ejmr`b beccp|eik ekb`} rgaekj g |rgkbgxbe~`b lifti|er` f`g|px` ic |`s`k a`u `likifelrx`kb|+ Rm`|` icc`x gk ek|ejmr ekri zm`rm`x rm` Lmek`|` `likifu e| `siosekj ek g |p|rgekgho` bex`lreikrizgxb

    jx`gr`x mip|`miob lik|pftreik)txesgr` |`lrix |`xsel` jxizrm ix cpxrm`x |rxplrpxgo efhgogkl` hu }t`xe`klekjeklx`f`krgo jxizrm bxes`k hu \I@)m`gsu ekbp|rxu)}`b eks`|rf`kr glreseru+ X`gbekj| ghis` 04 x`tx`|`kr rx`kbefhgogkl`/ gkb x`gbekj| h`oiz 04 x`tx`|`kr rx`kb x`hgogklekj+ Rm` f`rmibioiju ciooiz| rmgr p|`b ek lik|rxplrekj gTpxlmg|ekj Fgkgj`x| Ekb`} -TFE+

    Wpgxr`xou bgrg e| p|`b g| g b`cgpor xgrm`x rmgk rm` p|pgo gkb bpheip| oek`gx ekr`xtiogreik ri lx`gr` g fikrmou |`xe`|1zm`x` fikrmou bgrg e| gsgeogho`/ rm` `kb ic wpgxr`x bgrg tiekr e| |`o`lr`b+ Hxigbou/ |ejkelgkr rx`kb |mecr| ek rm` LXEg| |``k ek 8448)< gkb 8445)74 o`gb rm` x`ogres` lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT jxizrm hu 5&78 fikrm|/ zmelm e| ekoek` zerm rm` x`go likifu ogjj`b eftglr ic cglrix| |plm g| rm` x`go b`ti|er xgr` gkb X@@X ek r`xf| ic f`rxel| oea` rm`|gsekj| xgrei)lik|pf`x tpxlmg|ekj tiz`x+

    Porefgr`ou/ z`x` |eftou lx`grekj g |rgre|relgo |pffgxu ic `siosekj |rxplrpxgo rx`kb|/ kir oiiaekj cix

    likr`ftixgk`ip| ix ogjjekj lixx`ogreik| ix luloelgo rpxkekj tiekr| g| zerm g lifti|er` o`gbekj)liekleb`krekb`} gttxiglm+ Rm` liftik`kr| gx` b`xes`b cxif KH\)THiL)HE\ tphoe|m`b bgrg g| ciooiz|>

    7+ Rm` x`go -LTE b`gr`b 7&u`gx hgka b`ti|er xgr` b`segreik cxif k`prxgo -b`k`b g| 744ht| ti|eres` e+`+ g o`s`ogr zmelm fik`rgxu tioelu e| k`erm`x `}tgk|eikgxu ix x`|rxelres` `s`xu 7% xe|` ek rm` x`go ekr`x`|r xgr` zeoo x`bpl`rm` |gsekj| xgr` hu 34ht| ik EFC gkgou|e|/ gkb sel` s`x|g+

    8+ Rm` X`go @cc`lres` @}lmgkj` Xgr` -X@@X u)u lmgkj` e+`+ rm` rxgb` z`ejmr`b gkb x`ogres` ekgreik gbnp|r`blmgkj` ek rm` XFH xgr` g| lgolpogr`b hu rm` Hgka ic Ekr`xkgreikgo \`rro`f`kr| gk gll`o`xgrekj X@@X rx`kb zeooh` ti|eres` cix x`hgogklekj hu hii|rekj bif`|rel x`rgeo |t`kbekj tiz`x)lpxrgeoekj fgxjekgo ekbp|rxego glreseru+

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` < ic 7:

    \ipxl`> Izk @|refgr`| cxif KH\/ THiL bgrg

    Rm` x`go `}lmgkj` xgr` likrxehpr`b ri x`hgogklekj ek 8477/ `}l`||es`ou oiz ekr`x`|r xgr`| `}gl`xhgr`b |rxplrpxgoefhgogkl`/ gkb zgj` jxizrm mg| gll`o`xgr`b gkb mg| likrxehpr`b ri x`hgogklekj+Rm`x` e| ki xejixip| zgu ri gjjx`jgr`gkb liftgx` rm` eftglr ic rm`|` sgxegho`| ri npbj` rm` k`r `cc`lr/ gkb z` lgk ikou oiia gr mip|`miob lik|pftreikx`ogres` ri JBT jxizrm/ gkb ekc`x rm` k`r eftglr+ Efhgogkl` rx`kb| z`x` fi|r glpr` is`x rm` og|r b`lgb` bpxekj

    844

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 2 ic 7:

    \p|rgek`b Efhgogkl`| Bxis` \opft ek Lik|pftreik \mgx` ic JBT

    \ipxl`> Izk @|refgr`| cxif KH\/ THiL bgrg

    Rx`kb| zmelm |pttixr x`hgogklekj |plm g| g xe|ekj x`go ekr`x`|r xgr` ix gll`o`xgrekj x`go mip|`miob eklif` zeoo tp|mrm` is`xgoo ekb`} rizgxb)h`oiz 04/ gkb sel` s`x|g+ Ek W2/ rm` X@@X/ x`go eklif`| s`x|p| JBT gkb rm` x`go b`ti|erxgr` -g| ekgreik c`oo likrxehpr`b ri x`hgogklekj fif`krpf hpr txesgr` |`lrix `krx`tx`k`px| likrekp`b ri

    |`` likb`kl` `xib` g| wpgkrergres` lx`ber xgreikekj be|txitixreikgr`ou eftglr`b rm` \F@ |`lrix/ h`ogr`boubxgzekj iclego |pttixr+ Kir` rmgr x`hgogklekj lgk rga` g k`jgres` cixf e+`+ g b`loek` ek glreseru ek rm` m`gsu)\I@)}`beks`|rf`kr |`lrix| x`ogres` ri rm` hxigb`x `likifu/ g| ek 8445 h`cix` |refpop| cpkb| z`x` be|hpx|`b/ ix g ti|eres`cixf ek gll`o`xgrekj x`go zgj` gkb b`ti|er `gxkekj| eklif`+ Is`xgoo/ er| efti||eho` ri |`` |p|rgek`b x`hgogklekj

    g| x``lr`b ek g xe|ekj lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT zermipr g liklifergkr b`loek` ek eks`|rf`kr gkb lixtixgr`)jis`xkf`kr k`r |gsekj|+

    Kir` rmgr x`rgeo |go`| mgs` j`k`xgoou xpk ek oek` ix gm`gb ic kifekgo JBT jxizrm/ gkb gx` g lxpb` txi}u cix mip|`mioblik|pftreik rx`kb|+ Rm` |mgx` ic rirgo x`rgeo |go`| ic lik|pf`x jiib| ek JBT e| mejm`x rmgk lik|pftreik/gr Izk @|refgr`| cxif KH\/ THiL bgrg

    X`hgogklekj Rx`kb| Ektxis` Fgxjekgoou ek W2

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 0 ic 7:

    Ec Lmekg e| xge|ekj zgj`|/ rm` }lmgkj` xgr`/ gkb -cgx rii |oizou ekr`x`|r xgr`|/ zmu e|kr rm` likifu x`hgogklekj9 Rm`a`u e| rm` becc`x`kl` h`rz``k x`go gkb kifekgo lmgkj`|+ Lmgkj`| ek g lpxx`klu| x`go sgop` x``lr fix` rmgk np|rlmgkj`| ek er| kifekgo sgop`+ Rm`u go|i b`t`kb lxplegoou ik ekgreik jxizrm becc`x`krego| gkb txibplreseru jxizrm becc`x`krego|

    Lmek`|` zixa`x txibplreseru mg| h``k jxizekj gkkpgoou gr

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 3 ic 7:

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Rm` kpfh`x ic fejxgkr zixa`x| eklx`g|`b og|r u`gx hu ghipr 74f ri gk iclego jpx` ic 80 Zekb Ekcixfgreik/ W2 77 `|refgr`b cix xpxgo

    Cgooekj Zgj` gkb Xe|ekj Txir \mgx` ic JBT \ekl` 8444

    Bxis` Eks`|rf`kr)Lik|pftreik Bes`xj`kl`

    Xpxgo Eklif`| Ikou

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` : ic 7:

    Rm` cgoo ek rm` |mgx` ic mip|`miob be|ti|gho` eklif` ek JBT x``lr| liftgxgres`ou z`ga jxizrm ek kik&zgj` oghipx`gxkekj| gkb mejm`x rg} gkb ekr`x`|r tguf`kr|+ Ik rm` ekiz| |eb`/ gofi|r 54% ic mip|`miob eklif` ek Lmekg e|b`xes`b cxif oghipx `gxkekj|/ gxipkb mgoc ic zmelm e| zgj`| gkb |gogxe`| cxif rm` cixfgo |`lrix gkb rm` irm`x

    mgoc e| b`xes`b cxif cgxf txibplreik gkb irm`x pkeklixtixgr`b glresere`|+ Zgj`| gkb |gogxe`| cxif rm` cixfgo|`lrix x`fgek`b cgexou lik|rgkr gr gxipkb

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` = ic 7:

    34% ic JBT+ Lmekg mg| bipho`b er| oigk xgrei cxif h`oiz 744% ic JBT h`cix` rm` O`mfgk lxe|e| ri xipjmou 844%ribgu+ Lmekg| lx`ber hiif mg| h``k |ejkelgkrou hejj`x x`ogres` ri JBT rmgk rmgr ek rm` P\ h`cix` rm` |ph&txef` lxe|e|/ix `s`k ek Ngtgk ek rm` ogr` 75=4| gkb g| `s`x rm` ogz ic befeke|mekj fgxjekgo x`rpxk| gttoe`|1 rm` eklx`f`krgo

    x`rpxk ik lx`ber ek r`xf| ic JBT jxizrm gkb lg|m iz mg| b`loek`b xgtebou+

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Hg|`b ik rm` iclego jpx`| cix 8477/ er| zixrm kirekj rmgr JBT jpx`| x``lr lpfpogres` sgop`&gbb`b |i rmgreks`|rf`kr ek }`b g||`r| gkb eks`|rf`kr ek x`go `|rgr` eklopb` fgr`xego ektpr| g| z`oo g| `}e|rekj g||`r|

    |plm g| ogkb+ Tgxr ic zmgr b`s`oit`x| ek Lmekg tgu cix zm`k rm`u glwpex` g te`l` ic ogkb e| zmgr e| lgoo`b txefgxub`s`oitf`kr e+`+ b`fioereik/ ogkb lo`gxgkl` gkb o`s`ooekj/ gkb hg|el ekcxg|rxplrpx` ek|rgoogreik zmelm rga`| togl` h`cix`rm` toir e| gplreik`b hu rm` oilgo jis`xkf`kr+ Ek rm` hej lere`|/ rme| txil`|| e| oefer`b hu ogz ri g fib`|r tixreik ic rm`is`xgoo ogkb txel` hpr ek rm` txisekl`|/ rm` txil`|| lgk gllipkr cix ogxj` tixreik ic rm` txel`/ fplm ic zmelm fga`| er|zgu ekri x`b `ks`oit`| cix oilgo iclego|+ Porefgr`ou/ rm` sgop` gbb`b lik|rerpr`| g cixf ic `likifel glreseru/ xgrm`xrmgk g tx`&`}e|rekj g||`r+

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Ce}`b Eks`|rf`kr Mg| Bifekgr`b Eklx`f`krgo JBT Jxizrm |ekl` 8445

    \pxj` ek Ekbp|rxego \`lrix Bxis` 8445)74 JBT X`lis`xu

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 5 ic 7:

    Rm`x`cix`/ rm` pkb`xouekj sgop` ic rm` ogkb er|`oc lik|rerpr`| g fplm |fgoo`x tixreik ic rm` rirgo eks`|rf`kr gfipkrrmgk ik` fejmr liklopb` hu oiiaekj gr gplreik txel`|/ gkb rgaekj jxi|| x`go CGE bgrg ek ipx ekb`}/ b`gr`b hu rm`3ffg hpeobekj # lik|rxplreik TTE/ e| kir |ejkelgkrou fe|o`gbekj+ Ogkb x`s`kp`| rm`f|`os`| fgu kir x``lr

    gku pt|rx`gfJBT likrxehpreik/ hpr rm`u bi cpkb g jx`gr b`go ic bizk|rx`gfglreseru ek rm` cixf ic oilgo jis`xkf`kr|t`kbekj+ Ogkb |go` x`s`kp`| gllipkr cix xipjmou 24% ic oilgo jis`xkf`kr hpbj`r| glxi|| Lmekg/ gcc`lrekj kirnp|r rm` gheoeru ri x`tgu OJCS oigk| hpr ri cpkb a`u |ilego | xsel`|+

    Zmgr e| g K`prxgo X`go Ekr`x`|r Xgr` cix Lmekg9

    Ek |rgkbgxb `likifel rm`ixu/ rm` x`go ekr`x`|r xgr` e| bxes`k hu |mecr| ek |gsekj| tx`c`x`kl`| gkb rm` jxizrmxgr` ic tir`krego iprtpr1 er |mipob fgrlm rm` fgxjekgo x`rpxk ik lgtergo gkb hgogkl`| |gsekj gkb eks`|rf`kr|

    glxi|| g loi|`b `likifu+ Rm` `wpeoehxepf x`go xgr` e| loi|`ou oeka`b ri rm` jxizrm xgr` ic tir`krego iprtpr+ Ek Lmekg/g ogxj` oghipx |pxtop| fgb` lgtergo x`ogres`ou |lgxl` is`x rm` tg|r rzi b`lgb`|/ gkb g rpfhoekj b`t`kb`klu xgreilx`gr`b g |gsekj| |pxtop|+ Rmgr bxis` s`xu mejm rx`kb xgr`| ic }`b eks`|rf`kr gkb rm` fgxjekgo x`rpxk ik lgtergomg| xe|`k/ g txil`|| `}gl`xhgr`b hu tioelu bxes`k hgka| fgkbgr`b ri x`lulo` lm`gt |gsekj| ri tx`c`xx`b

    |`lrix|+ Miz`s`x/ g| Lmekg tg||`| rm` O`ze| rpxkekj tiekr effek`krou/ gkb rm` titpogreik t`ga| hu 8484/ g xe|ekj

    b`t`kb`klu xgrei eftoe`| g mejm`x x`go rx`kb li|r ic lgtergo+ Lmekg lgkr |p|rgekghou x`hgogkl` pkreo rm` x`goxgr` rpxk| ti|eres` ik g rx`kb hg|e| xgrm`x rmgk |eftou cix hxe`c t`xeib|/ hii|rekj is`xgoo mip|`miob eklif` gkbx`bplekj fgxjekgo }`b eks`|rf`kr+

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Rm` |u|r`fgrel kgklego x`tx`||eik ic Lmek`|` |gs`x| oe`| gr rm` m`gxr ic xe|ekj |rxplrpxgo efhgogkl`| gkb rm`oiz lik|pftreik |mgx` ic JBT+ Rme| h`jgk ek 8448)< g| hgka| cgl`b g |pxj` ek KTO| x`ogr`b ri rm` ti|r G|egk Lxe|e||refpop|/ gkb z`x` gooiz`b zeb`x k`r ekr`x`|r fgxjek| ri x`hpeob rm`ex hgogkl` |m``r|+ Gk EFC zixaekj tgt`x tphoe|m`bog|r \`tr`fh`x-ZT)77)88 rm` eklx`g|` ek pxhgk |gsekj xgr`| e| k`jgres`ou g||ilegr`b zerm rm` b`loek`ek x`go ekr`x`|r xgr`| is`x rme| t`xeib+ Rme| k`jgres` g||ilegreik |pjj`|r| rmgr Lmek`|` mip|`miob| |gs` zerm g rgxj`ro`s`o ic |gsekj ek fekb+ Zm`k rm` x`rpxk ri |gsekj b`loek`| -eklx`g|`|/ er h`lif`| fix` beclpor -`g|e`x rif``r g rgxj`r gkb mip|`miob| eklx`g|` -oiz`x rm`ex |gsekj ipr ic lpxx`kr be|ti|gho` eklif` ri lift`k|gr`+G fgek tioelu eftoelgreik e| rmgr gk eklx`g|` ek x`go b`ti|er xgr`| fgu m`ot oiz`x mip|`miob |gsekj gkb hii|r bif`|rellik|pftreik+Rm` tgt`x cipkb rmgr g ik` t`xl`krgj` tiekr eklx`g|` ek rm` x`go xgr` ic x`rpxk ik hgka b`ti|er|oiz`x| rm` pxhgk mip|`miob |gsekj xgr` hu 4+3 t`xl`krgj` tiekr|+ Zmeo` rm`x` e| ki b`keres` `ftexelgo gk|z`x/ grx`kb x`go xgr` ic 744ht| zipob h` rm` fekefpf x`wpex`b ri gll`o`xgr` x`hgogklekj g| f`g|px`b ek rm` LXE / gkbz` p|` rme| g| ipx x`c`x`kl` xgr`+

    Lmekg k``b| hgka| rmgr gooilgr` lgtergo cle`krou/ jis`xk`b hu g lx`beho` x`jpogrixu x`jef`+ Zerm rm` l`krxgo jis`xkf`kr

    X`go Xgr`| K`jgres` gkb X`go Eklif` Jxizrm Ogj| JBT

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11223.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11223.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11223.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11223.pdf
  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    10/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 74 ic 7:

    b`hr)JBT xgrei gr 84%/ rm` jis`xkf`kr lipob mgs` e||p`b hikb| ri xge|` |refpop| cpkb| gkb |t`kr rm`f bex`lrou g|k``b`b+ Ek|r`gb/ er lmi|` rm` zix|r tioelu itreik hu o`rrekj rm` hgka| o`kb x`lao`||ou/ txibb`b hu Tgxru iclego| gr gooo`s`o|+ Rm` `likifel xgfelgreik| zeoo h` c`or cix g b`lgb`/ kir o`g|r cix rm` \F@| lxplego ri x`hgogklekj jxizrm

    rmgr zeoo h` lmia`bicc cxif lx`ber gll`||+Ek irm`x zixb|/ efto`f`krekj g lx`ber |wp``~` seg lx`ber xgreikekj xgrm`xrmgr lgtergo txelekj mg| `}gl`xhgr`b pkb`xouekj be|rixreik|1 rm` lik|`k|p| e| h`ogr`bou kiz fisekj rizgxb rmgr se`z+

    Jxizrm Fib`o X`oe`| ik Pktx`l`b`kr`b O`s`o| ic Ce}`b Eks`|rf`kr gkb Ekbp|rxego Sgop` Gbb`b

    Ek Lmekg/ fgkpcglrpxekj g| g |mgx` ic rirgo sgop` gbb`b mg| h``k ek `}l`|| ic 24% ek x`l`kr u`gx|/ zmelm mg|txihghou kir h``k |pxtg||`b gkuzm`x` ek rm` zixob |ekl` rm` \ise`r xg+ Lmekg| |mgx` ic rirgo zixob fgkpcglrpxekjiprtpr mg| jxizk cxif np|r 7% ek 75:4 ri k`gxou 84% ek 8474)77+ Ce}`b eks`|rf`kr e| ik iclego kpfh`x| gr o`s`o|`s`k \rgoek |rxpjjo`b ri glme`s` ek me| lxg|m ekbp|rxegoe~greik txijxgf ic rm` 75 EFC/ GBH

    Zmgr fgrr`x| cix Lmekg| cprpx` jxizrm e| kir rm` siopf` ic `}tixr| ix er| x`ogreik ri JBT/ hpr rm` bif`|rel likr`kr ekrm` cixf ic `fh`bb`b akizo`bj` ic rm`|` `}tixr|+ Ekb``b / zmgr e| |i |t`lego ghipr Lmekg| `}tixr b`s`oitf`kr

    e| rmgr rm` lipkrxu |`oo| txibplr| rmgr gx` g||ilegr`b zerm g txibplreseru o`s`o rmgr e| fplm mejm`x rmgk glipkrxu ic Lmekg| t`x&lgterg eklif`/ rmgka| ri CBE goikj rm` lig|rgo txisekl`|+ \ekl` rm` `gxou 7534| rm` |mgx` icrirgo eks`|rf`kr -tphoel gkb txesgr` jxi|| lgtergo cixfgreik ek Lmekg| JBT mg| rx`kb`b ptzgxb|/ g kixfgo lipx|` ic`likifel b`s`oitf`kr g| tiix lipkrxe`| |rgxr zerm g |fgoo lgtergo |rila `k|pxekj g mejm x`rpxk ik lgtergo gkb m`kl` gmejm xgr` ic eks`|rf`kr/ hpr rm` ogz ic befeke|mekj x`rpxk| `s`krpgoou gttoe`| gkb x`rpxk| gkb eks`|rf`kr t`gagkb b`loek`1 z` |reoo gzger rmgr tiekr ek Lmekg/ h`lgp|` ic er| mpj` |rxplrpxgo be|rixreik|+

    Lmekg Eks`|rf`kr Heg| @}rx`f` @s`k Zermek G|eg

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    11/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 77 ic 7:

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Rm` cpkbgf`krgo x`g|ik cix Lmekg| t`x|e|r`krou mejm eks`|rf`kr)JBT xgrei e| rm` fgxjek h`rz``k rm` x`rpxk

    ik)li|r ic lgtergo+ Rm` hgka o`kbekj xgr` mg| me|rixelgoou h``k gxrelegoou likrxioo`b cgx h`oiz rm` x`rpxk ik lgtergok``b`b ri |pttixr gk ekbp|rxu&o`b/ }tixr&ixe`krgr`b jxizrm fib`o+ Gk cc`lres` gttxi}efgreik ic rm` x`rpxk ik lgtergoe| kifekgo JBT jxizrm/ zmelm gs`xgj`b 72+3% ek rm` 8444&74/ liftgx`b zerm rm` gs`xgj` h`klmfgxa 7ux hgkao`kbekj xgr` ic 0+=%/ |pjj`|rekj gk =&5% lgtergo x`rpxk+ X`hgogklekj rm` `likifu f`gk| x`be|rxehprekj eklif` gkbtiz`x cxif s`|r`b ekr`x`|r| rmgr mgs` h`k`r`b cxif rm` |rgrp| wpi/ kirghou ogxj` \I@| gkb oilgo jis`xkf`kr|+ Rm`lipkr`xtgxr ic Lmekg| mejm eks`|rf`kr)JBT xgrei e| rm` oiz lik|pftreik)JBT xgrei/ zmelm e| tgxrou h`lgp|`

    Lmek`|` mip|`miob| mgs` g mejm fires` cix tx`lgpreikgxu |gsekj/ hpr go|i rm` |mgx` ic zgj`| ek kgreikgo eklif`x`fgek| oiz x`ogres` ri txir| g| be|lp||`b ghis`+ X`hgogklekj eftoe`| oiz`x fgxjek| gkb x`rgek`b `gxkekj| cixfplm ic rm` lixtixgr` `oer` ek Lmekg/ gormipjm er zipob cp`o xgteb jxizrm gfikj |fgoo`x liftgke`|+

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Zmeo` pxhgke~greik mg| hii|r`b eklif`| ic xpxgo fejxgkr zixa`x|/ rm` |rxekj`kr mpaip mip|`miob x`je|rxgreik |u|r`fmg| txiseb`b rm`f zerm |lgkr |ilego z`ocgx` h`k`r| ek rm` lere`| zm`x` rm`u oes`/ eklx`g|ekj rm`ex tx`lgpreikgxu |gsekj|+

    Rm` s`xu oiz ix k`jgres` x`go ekr`x`|r xgr` ik hgka |gsekj b`ti|er| mg| go|i cixl`b mip|`miob| ri |gs` fix`rmgk rm`u irm`xze|` fejmr mgs`+ Lmekg| |mgx` ic eks`|rf`kr ek JBT xi|` cxif

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    12/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 78 ic 7:

    Rm` x`l`kr npft ek Lmekg| eks`|rf`kr xgrei ri gofi|r mgoc ic JBT zg| bxes`k hu g lik|leip| tioelu x`|tik|` ri rm`joihgo kgklego lxe|e|/ hpr rm`cpkbgf`krgo x`g|ik zmu rm` eks`|rf`kr xgrei mg| h``k |i mejm cix |i oikj mg|fix` ri bi zerm |`xeip| be|rixreik| ek rm` li|r ic lgtergo+

    \ipxl`> Zekb Ekcixfgreik

    Ngtgk icc`x| g p|`cpo me|rixelgo tgxgoo`o zerm Lmekg -|`` C`hxpgxu 8477 Fikrmou1 er glme`s`b 5+:% JBT jxizrm is`xrm` t`xeib 7500 ri 75:4/ er| `likifu h`lgf` eklx`g|ekjou pkhgogkl`b zerm rm` eks`|rf`kr)JBT xgrei x`glmekjgofi|r 34% hu 75:4 gkb g lik|pftreik)JBT xgrei gr lpxx`kr Lmek`|` o`s`o|+ Ik` a`u rxejj`x ic x`hgogklekjzg| g xe|` ek rm` li|r ic lgtergo/ m`ot`b hu ti|r 75:< joihgo ieo |mila1`s`k zermipr IT@L/rm` xgteb gllpfpogreik iclgtergo zg| |`r ri bxes` bizk rm` fgxjekgo txibplreseru ic lgtergo/ zmelm e| zmgr rm`ixu gkb liffik |`k|` zipob|pjj`|r e| ek`sergho` ek Lmekg+ Ngtgk| hgka o`kbekj xgr` zg| a`tr s`xu oiz rmxipjm rm` 7534| ri |pttixr gk ekbp|rxu&o`b jxizrm fib`o+ Miz`s`x/ hu rm` `gxou 75:4| Ngtgk `}t`xe`kl`b gk iprhx`ga ic ekgreik/ ek tgxr h`lgp|` rm` iz ic|pxtop| xpxgo oghipx fisekj ri rm` lere`| mgb |rgxr`b ri befeke|m ek rm` 7534|+ Rmgr o`b ri eklx`g|`b zixa`x hgxjgekekjtiz`x gkb g |pxj` ek x`go zgj`|/ gk `}gfto` ic rm` b`fijxgtmel O`ze| rpxkekj tiekr zmelm Lmekg cgl`| rme|b`lgb`+

    Ek rm` `gxou 75:4|/ Ngtgk |gz rm` fgxjek h`rz``k rm` x`rpxk gkb li|r ic lgtergo kgxxiz |ejkelgkrou/ x`bplekj rm`eks`|rf`kr xgr`+Rutelgoou/ g |mgxtou xe|ekj eks`|rf`kr xgrei bxes`| rm` lpxx`kr gllipkr ekri b`ler g| z` |gz glxi|| G|egek rm` xpk&pt ri rm` 755:)= kgklego lxe|e|+ Fg||es` rxgb` |pxtop|`| ek rm` feb&75=4| cix Rgezgk gkb Ngtgk z`x`bp` fi|rou ri cgooekj eks`|rf`kr |mgx`| gr mif`1 rme| tgrr`xk mg| h``k rutelgo glxi|| `f`xjekj fgxa`r|/ `}l`trek Lmekg h`lgp|` ic er| lgtres` bif`|rel |gsekj|)loi|`b lgtergo gllipkr+ Ec Lmekg ciooiz| rme| tgrr`xk/ rm` jxizrmxgr` gkb ekb``b txihghou rm` gh|iopr` o`s`o ic }`b eks`|rf`kr zeoo cgoo/ zmelm zeoo h` g |mila cix ekbp|rxego

    liffiberu fgxa`r|

    @}rx`f` Eklif` Ek`wpgoeru gkb X`jx`||es` Rg} \u|r`f Liftoelgr` X`hgogklekj

    Eklif` Rg} e| g s`xu |fgoo txitixreik ic rirgo rg} x`s`kp`| ek Lmekg hu gku |rgkbgxb/ gr o`|| rmgk mgoc Aix`gkix g rmexb ic @pxit`gk o`s`o|/ gkb rmgr zeoo ek`serghou lmgkj` is`x rme| b`lgb`+ Rirgo rg}`| ik oghipx eklif` xi|`hu 8+0 t`xl`krgj` tiekr| ic JBT/ tgxrou bp` ri mejm`x eklif` rg} tguf`kr| hpr fi|rou x``lrekj fgkbgrixulikrxehpreik| ri g k`z tgu&g|&uip&ji -TGUJ t`k|eik |u|r`f fgkgj`b hu rm` jis`xkf`kr |`lrix+ Ek gbbereik/mip|`miob ekr`x`|r tguf`kr| eklx`g|`b xgtebou gcr`x rm` zeb`|tx`gb b`siopreik ic mif` izk`x|met ri rm` mip|`miob|`lrix ek 755= gkb |igxekj txel`| |ekl` gkb gk g||ilegr`b eklx`g|` ek fixrjgj`&x`ogr`b b`hr+ G| g lik|`wp`kl` icrm`|` b`s`oitf`kr|/ rm` |mgx` ic mip|`miob be|ti|gho` eklif` gcr`x rg} gkb ekr`x`|r tguf`kr| ek is`xgoo JBTc`oo |mgxtou+

    Hxg~eo txiseb`| g r`ftogr` cix g ogxj` `f`xjekj fgxa`r zerm |efeogx `}rx`f` o`s`o| ic eklif` gkb z`gormek`wpgoeru p|ekj |ilego rxgk|c`x tguf`kr| cpkb`b cxif rg} x`s`kp`| ri hxigb`k er| febbo` log|| gkb s`xu

    b`oeh`xgr`ou |pttx`|| `}rx`f` ek`wpgoeru+ Lmekg zeoo mgs` ri is`xlif` er| s`|r`b ekr`x`|r| ri bi oea`ze|`/ ix rm` Tgxru

    G| Bi`| \mgx` ic Joihgo Liffiberu B`fgkb

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    13/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 7< ic 7:

    xe|a| g oi|| ic o`jerefglu gkb tir`krego |ilego ptm`gsgo ogr`x rme| b`lgb`+ Ec Lmekg e| ri x`hgogkl`/ rm` `xg ic rm`phewperip| Jplle fgk hgj |rpcc`b zerm rutelgoou eoo jirr`k lg|m fgu h` ghipr ri tg|| ekri me|rixu

    Ri bgr`/ Lmekg mg| kir h``k gho` ri p|` t`x|ikgo eklif` rg} `cc`lres`ou g| g x`be|rxehpreik riio/ gkb tx` gkbti|r rg} becc`x`krego| gx` rm` |gf`+ G| fgku Lmek`|` o`gb x| mgs` |rgr`b is`x rm` og|r u`gx/ rm` lpxx`kr o`s`o ic |a`z`beklif` be|rxehpreik| e| kir tioerelgoou ix |ilegoou b`|exgho` ix ekb``b `likifelgoou |p|rgekgho` ek rm` oikj xpk/ gkbfix` txijx`||es` t`x|ikgo eklif`)op}pxu jiib| rg}greik zeoo h` ek|rxpf`kr| p|`b ri gbbx`|| b`|rgheoe|ekj

    o`s`o| ic ek`wpgoeru+ Er e| oea`ou rmgr |ejkelgkr x`cixf ic rm` t`x|ikgo eklif` rg} ogz gkb gbfeke|rxgreik zipob h`k``b`b cix rmgr rg} ri togu gk `cc`lres` xio` ek gbbx`||ekj rm` x`be|rxehpreik ic eklif` ek Lmekg+ Rm` rg} |u|r`f mg| gkgofi|r ek|ejkelgkr eftglr ik eklif` x`be|rxehpreik/ zerm ti|r&rg} eklif`| kir sgxuekj |ejkelgkrou cxif tx`&rg}eklif`|+

    It`kekj rm` lgtergo gllipkr e| `||`krego ri x`oe`s` be|rixreik|/ hpr t`xferrekj xf| gkb lere~`k| ri cx``ou eks`|ris`x|`g| e| `||`kregoou lift`rereik h`rz``k rm` lgtres` bif`|rel gkb `}r`xkgo kgklego |u|r`f| / gkbbif`|rel lgtergo ejmr ik g sg|r |lgo` xgrm`x rmgk mir fik`u ekiz| e| rm` x`go kejmrfgx` |l`kgxei ek H`enekj +Eklif` ek`wpgoeru lgk h` f`g|px`b gkb liftgx`b p|ekj rm` |i&lgoo`b Jeke li`cle`kr/ zmelm e| cgx cxif t`xc`lr jes`k

    becc`x`kl`| ek lik|pftreik tgrr`xk| `rl hpr |reoo p|`cpo1 rm` mejm`x rm` sgop` cix rm` Jeke li&`cle`kr/ rm` jx`gr`xrm` ek`wpgoeru gfikj eklif` jxipt|+ Lipkrxe`| |plm g| Ngtgk/ B`kfgxa gkb \z`b`k rutelgoou mgs` oiz sgop`| cixrm`ex Jeke li`cle`kr| zm`x`g| Gcxelgk gkb Ogrek Gf`xelgk lipkrxe`| mgs` gk `kixfip| jpoc h`rz``k rm` eklif`| ic rm`xelm`|r gkb rm` tiix`|r |`lreik| ic rm` titpogreik+

    Ek 8474/ Lmekg| Jeke&li`cle`kr zg| rm` mejm`|r ek rm` zixob gtgxr cxif \iprm Gcxelg gr 4+2:/ zmelm jes`k rm`|u|r`fgrel pkb`x|rgr`f`kr ic eklif`| gfikj rm` rit 84% -g| x``lr`b ek gttgx`kr b`fgkb tgrr`xk| cix op}pxu jiib|/Fglgp jgfekj x`s`kp`| `rl e| gofi|r l`xrgekou g |ejkelgkr pkb`x`|refgr`+ Lim`|es` |ile`re`| cxif Ngtgk riJ`xfgku gkb Gp|rxgoeg p|` rm`ex rg} |u|r`f| ri x`bpl` ek`sergho` pkb`xouekj ek`wpgoere`| e+`+ glme`s` g oiz`x Jekeli`cle`kr gkb x`hgogklekj ek Lmekg rizgxb g fg|| lik|pftreik fib`o zeoo mgs` ri txil``b ek rgkb`f zermz`gorm x`be|rxehpreik g| fplm cxif rm` rit b`leo` hu eklif` g| cxif rm` lixtixgr`)|rgr` |`lrix|+

    Lmekg Fp|r Reor Jxizrm rizgxb rm` Txesgr` \`xsel` \`lrix Pxj`krou

    @ftexelgo |rpbe`| hu rm` EFC gkb irm`x| |pjj`|r rmgr rm` lik|pftreik |mgx` lipob eklx`g|` hu

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

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    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 72 ic 7:

    \ipxl`> HE\

    Jx`gr`x kgklego b`s`oitf`kr r`kb| ri eklx`g|` lik|pftreik/ mejmoejmrekj rm` eftglr rmgr gor`xkgres` eks`|rf`krek|rxpf`kr| mgs` ik tx`lgpreikgxu |gsekj| ix gll`|| ri kgklekj lgk mgs` ik lik|pftreik bex`lrou+ Lmekg| kgklego|u|r`f e| pkb`xb`s`oit`b/ gkb bifekgr`b hu hgka|/ zerm hgkaekj |`lrix g||`r| o`kr txefgxeou ri \I@|+ Hgka|mgs` gllipkr`b cix k`gxou rzi&rmexb| rm` `}r`xkgo lgtergo txiseb`b ri rm` `likifu |ekl` 8445/ zerm hikb| gkb

    `wpere`| fgaekj pt rm` x`|r+ Rm` be|txitixreikgr` xio` ic hgka ekr`xf`begreik `}togek| zmu rm` F8)JBT xgrei mg||pxj`b/ cxif 705% ek 844: ri 7=7% gr rm` `kb ic 8477/ g| gkgou|`b ek rm` Kis`fh`x fikrmou kir`+

    @ccixr| mgs` h``k fgb` rizgxb oeh`xgoe~greik hpr z`x` rmxizk ekri x`s`x|` ti|r&lxe|e| gkb b`s`oitekj lgtergo fgxa`r|rmxipjm lixtixgr` hikb fgxa`r|/ fprpgo cpkb|/ hxigb`x `wperu izk`x|met lipob hxigb`k rm` xgkj` ic |gsekj|ek|rxpf`kr| cix mip|`miob| |gsekj| gkb icc`x g sgxe`ru ic ek|pxgkl` txibplr| ri m`ot tiio xe|a|+ Rme|/ ek rpxk/

    zipob m`ot cgleoergr` mejm`x lik|pftreik+ Fix`is`x/ |ekl` rm` x`go ekr`x`|r xgr` e| `|refgr`b ri mgs` g ti|eres`eftglr ik rm` |mgx` ic txesgr` lik|pftreik/ g oeh`xgoe~greik ic ekr`x`|r xgr`| zipob cpxrm`x txifir` txesgr` lik|pftreikjes`k rmgr er e| `}t`lr`b ri o`gb ri mejm`x b`ti|er xgr`|+

    Glgb`fel `seb`kl` cxif txiseklego bgrg |pjj`|r| rmgr jis`xkf`kr |t`kbekj ik m`gorm -hpr kir ik `bplgreikx`bpl`| pxhgk mip|`miob |gsekj -zerm g ik` XFH eklx`g|` ek jis`xkf`kr m`gorm |t`kbekj rxgk|ogrekj ekri g rziXFH eklx`g|` ek mip|`miob lik|pftreik+ Rm` `seb`kl` |pjj`|r| rmgr rm` lik|pftreik |mgx` xe|`| zerm rm`

    b`t`kb`klu xgrei ik gs`xgj` glxi|| `likife`| g| iob`x t`ito` bxgz bizk rm`ex oec`ref` |gsekj|+ Lmekg| cgooekjb`t`kb`klu xgrei mg| mgb g b`tx`||ekj `cc`lr ik txesgr` lik|pftreik |mgx` zm`k liftgx`b zerm irm`x lipkrxe`|/gormipjm rme| txil`|| e| kiz `kbekj+

    Rm` gs`xgj` pxhgk mip|`miob |gsekj xgr` ek Lmekg e| likrxgxu ri rm`ixu gkb rm` h`mgseipx ek irm`x lipkrxe`|/ mejm`|rgfikj rm` uipkj`|r -|gsekj cix mip|ekj gkb rm` iob`|r -cix t`k|eik| mip|`miob|+ Rm`x`cix`/ rm` gjekj icrm` titpogreik ek Lmekg gkb rm` eklx`g|` ek rm` b`t`kb`klu xgrei fgu kir k`l`||gxeou o`gb ri gk eklx`g|`

    ek lik|pftreik zermipr glres` tioelu f`g|px`| ri x`bpl` tx`lgpreikgxu |gsekj| gfikj|r hirm jxipt| seg |ilegomip|ekj/ mejm`x b`ti|er xgr`| gkb h`rr`x |ilego txise|eik/ |i rmgr rm` xe|ekj b`t`kb`klu xgrei lipob eklx`g|`lik|pftreik is`x ref`+

    \mgooiz Cekgklego Fgxa`r| B`tx`|| Lik|pftreik

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    15/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

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    Ti|r|lxetr> E| Lmekg| @likifel Bgrg X`oegho`9

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    jpx`| gx` kir tphoe|m`b/ fgaekj gkgou|e| efti||eho`+ Goikj zerm rm` rxgb` |pxtop|/ rm` rmx`` fgek liftik`kr| icJBT gbb pt ri cgx fix` rmgk er| x`tixr`b rirgo/ g| }`b eks`|rf`kr gkb x`rgeo |go`| bi kir lixx`|tikb ri eks`|rf`krgkb lik|pftreik g| pkb`x|riib `s`xuzm`x` ipr|eb` Lmekg+ Ek 8474/ rm` is`xgoo |lix` cix Lmekg| bgrg ek rm` ZixobHgka \rgre|relgo Lgtgleru Ekbelgrix -\LE zg| 0= s`x|p| rm` ekr`xkgreikgo gs`xgj` ic 30/ hpr rmgr x`|por zg| hii|r`bhu rm` -bpheip| |t``b zerm zmelm Lmekg b`oes`x| |rgre|rel|+ Ic rm` rmx`` g||`||f`kr gx`g|/ Lmekg |lix`b g z`ooh`oiz gs`xgj` 04 ik |rgre|relgo f`rmibioiju/ gkb np|r 24 ik bgrg |ipxl`|/ icc|`r hu g s`xu mejm =< ik t`xeibelerugkb ref`oek`||+ Ek 8442/ Lmekg likbplr`b gk @likifel L`k|p|/ gooizekj rm` KH\ ri j`r g fix` gllpxgr` jgpj` ic rm`rirgo iprtpr ic rm` is`xoiia`b |`xsel` |`lrix ic rm` `likifu+ Rm` x`|por zg| gk ptzgxb x`se|eik ic JBT cix 8442 ic8+

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    16/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+887:+8=0< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Ekc`lreik Tiekr C`hxpgxu 8478Tgj` 73 ic 7:

    Lmekg| log||elgreik ic |`xsel` ekbp|rxe`| icr`k eklopb`| liftgke`| gcoegr`b zerm ix m`gseou likrxglr`b

    hu rm` l`krxgo jis`xkf`kr gkb)ix |rgr`&izk`b `kr`xtxe|`|1 rmp|/ er e| `g|e`x cix rm` KH\ ri eklopb` liftgke`|zixaekj ik kgreikgo likrxglr| liftgx`b ri txiseklego gprmixere`|+ Oiiaekj gr rm` |`likbgxu ekbp|rxe`|/ rm` KH\ x`tixr|

    g |ejkelgkrou oiz`x kpfh`x gcr`x 8442 liftgx`b ri txiseklego jis`xkf`kr|/ gkb rmgr jgt mg| ikou jxizk ek x`l`krwpgxr`x|+ Rm` ikou |`lrix txihghou f`g|px`b ri zixob |rgkbgxb| e| txefgxu ekbp|rxu JBT/ zm`x` bgrg e| `g|e`|rri lioo`lr g| er e| rgkjeho` -|r``o hgx| `rl be|lx`tgkle`| h`rz``k rm` KH\ gkb txiseklego jis`xkf`kr| gx`

    |fgoo ri kik`+ Zmeo` Lmekg| |rgre|relgo x`tixrekj likrekp`| ri eftxis`/ irm`x txi}e`| ic `likifel jxizrm zeoo k``bri h` ih|`xs`b ri h`rr`x pkb`x|rgkb `likifel rx`kb| |plm g| `o`lrxeleru lik|pftreik/ rxgk|tixr siopf`| gkb lx`berrx`kb|+ Hirrif oek`> x`goeru lm`laekj iclego |rgre|rel| gkb rgaekj bp` gllipkr ic rm`ex lgolpogreik gkb x`tixrekjebei|uklxg|e`|/ gooiz| rm`f ri h` p|`b ri bxgz p|`cpo fglxi ekc`x`kl`+

    Gprmix>\@GK FGM@XLik|porgkr \rxgr`je|r

    Wpgf \`lpxere`||+fgm`xDjoihgogooegkl`tgxrk`x|+lif

    R`o> !=08+8=2:+88:4

    +

    Wpgf Jxipt e| g cipkbekj f`fh`x ic Joihgo Gooegkl` Tgxrk`x| -JGT/ gk ekr`xkgreikgo k`rzixa ic oilgo kgklego ek|rerpreik| zerm icl`| ek 80lipkrxe`|/ g rirgo ic "24hk ek GPF gkb zmelm mg| lifto`r`b "88hk ek lixtixgr` kgkl` rxgk|glreik|+ JGT gef| ri o`s`xgj` lxi||&hixb`x lgtgheoe&

    re`| lis`xekj txesgr` wperu/ |rila hxiaekj/ x`|`gxlm/ cpkb fgkgj`f`kr gkb eks`|rf`kr hgkaekj+ Irm`x o`gbekj f`fh`x| eklopb` X`oegkl` Lgtergo-Ekbeg/ AR ^feli -Rmgeogkb/ \`ufipx Te`xl` -PA gkb Lgtergo Tgxrk`x| -Ngtgk+

  • 7/31/2019 China's Economic Rebalancing Challenge

    17/17

    \GO@\ LIKRGLR\

    Jpu \reoo` R o> !=08+8=2:+882< @fgeo> jpu+|reoo`Dwpgfjxipt+lif

    Wpgf Cekgklego \`xsel`| Jxipt