China Tech

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    Background Top-3 hardware player in China. Xiaomi is a privately owned company that designs, develops and sells its own brandqwe2 of consumer-electronics items via the Internet. In its recent fundraising, Xiaomis implied enterprise value (EV) was USD10bn, putting it among the top-three largest hardware makers in China on this measure (together with Lenovo [992 HK, HKD8.15, Buy (1)], with a market cap of USD11bn, and Huawei [Not listed]). On the same basis, Xiaomi is the fourth-largest smartphone maker globally with an enterprise value of USD10bn (Nokia [USD25bn market cap], Lenovo [USD11bn], Huawei [market cap not available, but widely thought to be a top-3 player], Blackberry [USD4.6bn], and HTC [USD3.9bn]).

    Highlights New products. With its recent launch of the Mi3 smartphone and Red Rice (Hongmi) low-cost smartphone, Xiaomi has signalled its intention to become a leading smartphone maker in China. Ambitions to become a global player. Xiaomi recently hired ex-Google top management/product director Hugo Barra to lead its global division, with a view to expanding its global business and strengthening its ties with the US company. Xiaomi expects Barra to be instrumental in helping to expand its presence overseas, and join the ranks of the big multinational players. Business model includes hardware, software/content, and social networking, backed by MIUI operating system. Xiaomi aims to provide a refined user interface (UI) for Android smartphone users through its MIUI platform (launched in 2010), which provides a weekly stream of updates that encourage close interaction between the company and the sizable base of users of its products. Xiaomi thinks MIUI has set a precedent for the potential success of its app, content, service, community service businesses. Xiaomi is seen as Chinas answer to Apple. Xiaomi is widely viewed in China as attempting to build up its brand as the countrys answer to Apple, with its unique operating system (MIUI), positive

    buzz among the young generation, and marketing acumen. The company often sees a shortage of its smartphones, selling out its new models online within five minutes of launch. Internet sell-through also brings cost efficiencies, given the lack of retail marketing costs. Indeed, a shortage of its Hongmi smartphone pushed up the second-hand price on-line to CNY1,000, from an original price of CNY799. Xiaomi is competitive on price/ performance. 1) Xiaomi tries to provide similar specs to those of Apple smartphones (even using Apples component suppliers) but at a much lower price for online sales, with profits expected to come through later in the products life cycle. Its Mi1/Mi2/Mi3 models have similar specs to Apples iPhones but are priced at CNY1,999 (compared with over CNY3,300 for the equivalent Apple product). 2) This year, Xiaomi has been tapping the local supply chain as well as Apples component suppliers. Its Hongmi smartphone, priced at CNY799, leverages Mediateks solutions as well as components sourced from China-based players. Valuation We reaffirm our Buy rating on Mediatek (2454 TT, TWD371.50, Buy [1]), as we believe it will retain its market dominance in semiconductors and in terms of its market share of China smartphone-IC shipments, with key China smartphone makers leveraging its product offerings.

    25 September 2013

    Xiaomi: Chinas answer to Apple

    Xiaomi seems to be fashioning an Apple-like image, backed by its Android-based MIUI platform

    The company, by some measures the fourth-largest smartphone maker globally, is targeting shipments of 20m-plus units this year

    As well as using Apples component suppliers, it is increasingly leveraging the domestic supply chain and Mediateks solutions

    China Tech Food Chain

    Information Technology / China

    Eric Chen(852) 2773 [email protected]

    Kylie Huang(886) 2 8758 [email protected]

    Lynn Cheng(886) 2 8758 [email protected]

  • China Tech Food Chain 25 September 2013

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    Chinas answer to Apple

    Targeting 20m-plus unit shipments this year

    Aiming for 200%-plus YoY shipment growth. The company expects its smartphone shipments to reach 20m units in 2013 (7m shipped in 1H13), up from 7m in 2012. Such a level would imply around 200% YoY shipment growth for 2013, vs. our expectations in the market for 80-100% YoY growth for the industry. In 1H13, the company posted revenue of CNY13.3bn, higher than its full-year 2012 revenue of CNY12.6bn. Shipment trends for Chinas top-10 players (m units) 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Huawei 15 33 45 60 ZTE 14 27 40 52 Lenovo 5 28 40 60 Coolpad 9 15 25 35 TCL Communication 3 12 20 35 Xiaomi 1 7 20 40 Gionee 2 12 18 26 OPPO 2 7 13 23 BBK 1 5 12 20 Tianyu 1 5 10 16Top-10 players shipments 53 151 243 367Total China smartphone shipments 64 240 430 615Top-10 players shipment share (%) 83 63 57 60Source: Companies for historical numbers and 2013 forecasts, Daiwa forecasts

    The companys strong smartphone sales-volume growth in 2013 comes as the profile of its brand in China continues to rise and is supported by the launch of its low-cost smartphone (the Red Rice [Hongmi]).

    Xiaomi tries to provide similar specs to those of Apple smartphones (even using Apples component suppliers) but at a much lower price. Bill of materials: Xiaomi vs. iPhone

    iPhone 5 Xiaomi Red Rice

    (Hongmi) Xiaomi Mi1 Global launch 4Q12 Aug-13 4Q11 1. Application Processor 17.5 (A6) 16.8 (MT6589T quad-core 1.5GHz)

    10 (Qcom 8260 dual-core 1.5GHz)

    2. Display (Module+Touch) 44 (4", Retina Display, In-cell) 27 (4.7") 35 (4")

    3. Memory 20.85 (Flash: NAND,

    16GB, RAM: 1GB)

    11.2 (1GB RAM, 4GB storage)

    22 (1GB RAM, 4GB storage)

    4. Mechanical/E-Mechanical (Glass & Metals, PCB...etc) 33 3.3 20 5. Battery (3.7V) 4.5 (3.8V) 3.8 5 6. Bluetooth/ WLAN 5 (Murata Dual-Band Wireless Module) 1.2 8 7. Camera 18 (8MP/1.2MP) 8.8 (8MP/1.3MP) 12 (8MP)

    8. Baseband / RF / PA 34 (QCOM

    MDM9615M / RTR8600)

    9.3 20

    9. User interface (Sensors) 6.5 4 10. Power management IC 8.5 2 11. Box content 7 1.3 8 Total materials 199.85 82.7 151 Estimated manufacturing cost 8 2 9 BOM cost 207.85 84.7 160 Shipment price for operator 650 130 180 Source: Daiwa estimates

    The Hongmi model is all about China Having initially favoured Apples component suppliers, Xiaomi is now building up its local supply chain. For OEM work it uses Wingtech for its TD-SCDMA offerings and Longcheer for WCDMA offerings. Its recently launched low-cost Hongmi sports Mediateks quad-core MT6589T processor (1.5GHz), together with a 4.7 display, and is priced at CNY799. The higher-end Mi3 model is powered by a Qualcomm 800 series (MSM 8974 AB) quad-core processor, and has a 5 display and 16GB RAM. It is priced at CNY1,999.

    Specs for new China smartphones vs. global smartphones

    Xiaomi Xiaomi Sony Apple Apple SECModel Mi3 Red Rice (Hongmi) Xperia Z1 iPhone5S iPhone5C Galaxy Note 3Global launch 13-Sep 13-Aug 13-Sep 13-Sep 13-Sep 13-SepNetwork WCDMA/TD-SCDMA/CDMA TD-SCDMA (Planned WCDMA) LTE/WCDMA

    WCDMA/CDMA/FDD-LTE/TD-LTE

    WCDMA/CDMA/FDD-LTE/TD-LTE LTE/WCDMA

    OS MIUI V5/Android 4.2.1 MIUI V5/Android 4.2.1 Android 4.2.2 iOS7 iOS7 Android 4.3Display 5.0" 4.7" 5.0" 4.0" 4.0" 5.7"Resolution 1920*1080 (HD 441ppi) 1280*720 (HD720 312ppi) 1920*1080 (HD 441ppi) 1136*640 (Retina 326 ppi) 1136*640 (Retina 326 ppi) 1920*1080 (HD 386ppi)

    Processor TD/WCDMA: Nvidia Tegra4 CA-15

    quad-core 1.8GHz WCDMA: Qualcomm800

    MSM8974AB quad-core 2.3GHz

    MT6589T CA7 quad-core 1.5GHz

    Qualcomm800 MSM8974 quad-core 2.2GHz Apple A7 Dual-core 1.6GHz Apple A6 Dual-core 1.3GHz

    LTE: 2.3GHz Qualcomm quad-core

    3G: 1.9GHz Exynos 5 quad-core*2 (CA15 1.9GHz+CA7

    1.3GHz) Memory-storage 16/64GB 4GB 16GB 16/32/64GB 16/32GB 32/64GBMemory-RAM 2GB 1GB 2GB 2GB 1GB 3GBWeight 145g 158g 170g 112g 132g 168gThickness 8.1mm 9.9mm 8.5mm 7.6mm 8.97mm 8.3mm

    Camera Rear: 13MP Rear: 8MP Rear: 20.7MP Rear: 8MP Rear: 8MP Rear: 13MPFront: 2MP Front: 1.3MP Front: 2MP Front: 1.2MP Front: 1.2MP Front: 2MPPricing CNY1,999(16GB)/ CNY2499 (64GB) CNY799 USD935 USD649/USD749/USD849 USD549/USD649 USD700 (32GB)

    Source: Companies, Daiwa

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    Thinking differently According to the company, the growth in its business in recent years has largely flowed from its progress in the smartphone space, most notably from its moves to broaden its ecosystem. There are several ways Xiaomi seeks to stand out from other handset makers:

    It emphasises mobile content its MIUI OS is updated every week and has several functions specifically tailored to China-based consumers, including its own app store.

    It has an Internet-centric business Xiaomi has built up customer recognition of its products through Internet-based promotion, which keeps down costs while encouraging direct interaction with users. It also keeps costs in check through a shipment-by-order model (B2C).

    It aims to deliver high-spec products at low prices the idea is that the specs of the model sustain consumer interest until the bill of materials falls, paving the way for profitability in the later stages of the products life cycle to offset losses incurred in the initial stages.

    With margins on hardware manufacturing declining, Xiaomi seeks to add value through its focus on content service/usage its customised UI and self-developed or co-developed mobile apps/platforms have boosted consumer awareness of the company and its products, allowing it to develop its own

    distinct user community, rather than one considered part of the larger Android/Google platform.

    Buy Mediatek We believe China smartphone makers will be able to narrow the technology gap with the global brands in terms of performance by using Mediateks octo-core MT6592. In our view, the MT6592 should help China smartphone makers gain access to the mid-range and high-end largescreen (4.8-6) smartphone segments, as well as help Mediatek receive more orders globally. At the same time, we see Mediatek expanding its portfolio of quad-core smartphone ICs to a wide range of segments. We continue to expect the company to have a dominant share of the quad-core smartphone-IC market in China in 2014. For 3Q13, we forecast Mediateks smartphone-IC shipments in China to be 64m units (20m, 22m, and 22m units for each month), up from 51m units for 2Q13, representing a 25% QoQ rise. Overall, we forecast China smartphone shipments to rise by a high-teen percentage QoQ for 3Q13. We expect the share price to be supported by a YoY rise in 2014 EPS. We reiterate our Buy (1) rating and six-month target price of TWD430 (based on an unchanged 20x PER applied to the 12-month forward EPS). The main risk to our view would be lower-than-expected 2013-15 smartphone-IC shipments.

  • China Tech Food Chain 25 September 2013

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    Daiwas Asia Pacific Research Directory

    Daiwas Asia Pacific Research Directory

    HONG KONG Hiroaki KATO (852) 2532 4121 [email protected] Regional Research Head

    John HETHERINGTON (852) 2773 8787 [email protected] Regional Deputy Head of Asia Pacific Research; Regional Head of Product Management

    Kevin LAI (852) 2848 4926 [email protected] Deputy Head of Regional Economics; Macro Economics (Regional)

    Hui MIAO (852) 2848 4464 [email protected] Macro Economics (China)

    Christie CHIEN (852) 2848 4482 [email protected] Macro Economics (Taiwan)

    Jonas KAN (852) 2848 4439 [email protected] Head of Hong Kong Research; Head of Hong Kong and China Property; Regional Property Coordinator; Property Developers (Hong Kong)

    Jeff CHUNG (852) 2773 8783 [email protected] Automobiles and Components (China)

    Grace WU (852) 2532 4383 [email protected] Head of Greater China FIG; Banking (Hong Kong, China)

    Jerry YANG (852) 2773 8842 [email protected] Banking (Taiwan)/Diversified Financials (Taiwan and China)

    Leon QI (852) 2532 4381 [email protected] Banking (Hong Kong, China)

    Winston CAO (852) 2848 4469 [email protected] Capital Goods Machinery (China)

    Eric CHEN (852) 2773 8702 [email protected] Pan-Asia/Regional Head of IT/Electronics; Semiconductor/IC Design (Regional)

    Felix LAM (852) 2532 4341 [email protected] Head of Materials (Hong Kong, China); Cement and Building Materials (China, Taiwan); Property (China)

    Dennis IP (852) 2848 4068 [email protected] Power; Utilities; Renewables and Environment (Hong Kong/China)

    John CHOI (852) 2773 8730 [email protected] Regional Head of Small/Medium Cap; Small/Mid Cap (Regional); Head of Multi-Industries (Hong Kong, China); Internet (China)

    Joey CHEN (852) 2848 4483 [email protected] Steel (China)

    Kelvin LAU (852) 2848 4467 [email protected] Head of Transportation (Hong Kong, China); Hong Kong and China Research Coordinator; Transportation (Regional)

    Jibo MA (852) 2848 4489 [email protected] Head of Custom Products Group; Custom Products Group

    Thomas HO (852) 2773 8716 [email protected] Custom Products Group

    PHILIPPINES Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 813 7344

    ext 302 [email protected]

    Head of Philippines Research; Strategy; Capital Goods; Materials

    SOUTH KOREA Chang H LEE (82) 2 787 9177 [email protected] Head of Korea Research; Strategy

    Sung Yop CHUNG (82) 2 787 9157 [email protected] Pan-Asia Co-head/Regional Head of Automobiles and Components; Automobiles; Shipbuilding; Steel

    Jun Yong BANG (82) 2 787 9168 [email protected] Tyres; Chemicals

    Mike OH (82) 2 787 9179 [email protected] Capital Goods (Construction and Machinery)

    Sang Hee PARK (82) 2 787 9165 [email protected] Consumer/Retail

    Jae H LEE (82) 2 787 9173 [email protected] IT/Electronics (Tech Hardware and Memory Chips)

    Joshua OH (82) 2 787 9176 [email protected] IT/Electronics (Handset Components)

    Thomas Y KWON (82) 2 787 9181 [email protected] Pan-Asia Head of Internet & Telecommunications; Software (Korea) Internet/On-line Game

    TAIWAN

    Mark CHANG (886) 2 8758 6245 [email protected] Head of Research

    Steven TSENG (886) 2 8758 6252 [email protected]

    IT/Technology Hardware (PC Hardware)

    Christine WANG (886) 2 8758 6249 [email protected] IT/Technology Hardware (Automation); Cement; Consumer

    Kylie HUANG (886) 2 8758 6248 [email protected] IT/Technology Hardware (Handsets and Components)

    Lynn CHENG (886) 2 8758 6253 [email protected] IT/Electronics (Semiconductor)

    INDIA Punit SRIVASTAVA (91) 22 6622 1013 [email protected] Head of Research; Strategy; Banking/Finance

    Navin MATTA (91) 22 6622 8411 [email protected] Automobiles and Components

    Saurabh MEHTA (91) 22 6622 1009 [email protected] Capital Goods; Utilities

    Mihir SHAH (91) 22 6622 1020 [email protected] FMCG/Consumer

    Deepak PODDAR (91) 22 6622 1016 [email protected]

    Materials

    Nirmal RAGHAVAN (91) 22 6622 1018 [email protected] Oil and Gas; Utilities

    SINGAPORE Adrian LOH (65) 6499 6548 [email protected] Head of Singapore Research, Regional Head of Oil and Gas; Oil and Gas (ASEAN and China); Capital Goods (Singapore)

    David LUM (65) 6329 2102 [email protected] Property and REITs

    Ramakrishna MARUVADA (65) 6499 6543 [email protected] Head of ASEAN & India Telecommunications; Telecommunications (ASEAN & India)

  • China Tech Food Chain 25 September 2013

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    Daiwas Offices Office / Branch / Affiliate Address Tel Fax

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  • China Tech Food Chain 25 September 2013

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    Disclaimer

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