China Financial Index

China Financial Index

This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained herein without notice. Any US person wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact the New York branch of the Bank which has distributed this report in the US. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is a member of London Stock Exchange. It is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.

16 March 2010SEB Shanghai Branch

Investments up as business climate improves - But profit expectations fall as margins deteriorate =

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SEB’s China Financial Index

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Index value Businessclimate

Investmentplans

Employees Profit

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SEB Shanghai 16 March 2010

2

Confidence High China leading growth in 2010 =

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The RMB will appreciate vs. the USD again; interest rates are on their way up =

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China USD/CNY & NDF 12-mth

05 06 07 08 09 10

US

D/C

NY

6.256.506.757.007.257.507.758.008.258.50

12-mth NDF

USD/CNY

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3

Survey Results =

Information about the Survey The SEB China Financial Survey is based on input from CEOs and CFOs at 50 subsidiaries of major Swedish, Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and German companies. Most of the companies have a global turnover of over EUR 500 million. The survey is web- based and confidential and was carried out during the period March 1 – 10, 2010. =

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Subject: Business Climate / Profit Expectations kçêíÜÉêå=bìêçéÉ~å=ëìÄëáÇá~êó=ã~å~ÖÉêë=áå=

`Üáå~=Ü~îÉ=~å=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=éçëáíáîÉ=îáÉï=çÑ=

íÜÉ= ÄìëáåÉëë= Åäáã~íÉ= Ñçê= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ=

ãçåíÜëI= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= ëáñ=ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= QUB=

EQSB= áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêF= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÉñéÉÅí=

ÄìëáåÉëë=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=íç=ÄÉ=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=

ÅçãáåÖ=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~åÇ=OMB=ETB=áå=j~êÅÜF=

ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=îÉêó=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉK=låäó=UB=

ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ïáää=ÄÉ=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉK=

qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=NNB=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=

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îÉêó=ìåÑ~îçê~ÄäÉ=ÅçåÇáíáçåëK=

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ÉñéÉÅí= éêçÑáíë= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç=

SNB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçI= ~åÇ= åç= Åçãé~åáÉë=

ÄÉäáÉîÉ= íÜ~í= éêçÑáíë= ïáää= áãéêçîÉ=

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áåîÉëíÉÇ=Åçãé~åáÉëF=êçëÉ=QRKTB=áå=cÉÄêì~êó=

Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= ãçåíÜ= ä~ëí= óÉ~êK=

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ÇìÉ= íç= Ä~ëÉ= ÉÑÑÉÅíëI= ãçëí= ~å~äóëíë= ÉñéÉÅí=

Éñéçêí= ÑáÖìêÉë= íç= Öê~Çì~ääó= êÉÅçîÉê= ÇìêáåÖ=

OMNMK= oÉí~áä= ë~äÉë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= OOKNB= áå=

cÉÄêì~êó= ïÜáÅÜ= áë= QB= ÜáÖÜÉê= íÜ~å= ã~êâÉí=

ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK= mçëëáÄäÉ= êÉ~ëçåë= ÄÉÜáåÇ=

Ñ~ääáåÖ=éêçÑáí= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë= ~êÉ=ÇáëÅìëëÉÇ=çå=

é~ÖÉë=N=~åÇ=OK=

E^äëç=ëÉÉ=Öê~éÜë=N=~åÇ=PI=éK=RF=

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Subject: Employee Structure bîÉå= áå= íÜÉ= ãáÇÇäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä= ÅêáëáëI=

íÜÉêÉ=ïÉêÉ=åç=ã~àçê=ä~óJçÑÑë=~ãçåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=

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bìêçéÉ~å= Åçãé~åáÉë= ÄÉÅçãÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=

ÄìääáëÜI= íÜÉó= ~êÉ= åçï= éä~ååáåÖ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=

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åìãÄÉêë= ~åÇ= SB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=

áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK=qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=QPB=~åÇ=

TB=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäó=áå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK==

EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=Q=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=

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Subject: Fixed Asset Investment Plans qÜÉ= åìãÄÉê= çÑ= Åçãé~åáÉë= éä~ååáåÖ=

áåîÉëíãÉåíë= Ü~ë= Ñáå~ääó= ëí~êíÉÇ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉK=

få= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= SRB= ~êÉ= éä~ååáåÖ= ãçÇÉëí=

áåîÉëíãÉåíë= ~ë= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= RMB= áå=

pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ= çÑ=

Åçãé~åáÉë=éä~ååáåÖ=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=

Ü~ë= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= íç= NUB= Ñêçã= NNB= áå=

pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= qÜáë= áë= áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ= ~= ëÜáÑí= áå=

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Åçãé~åáÉë= íÜ~í= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ãçîáåÖ= Ñêçã=

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ëíê~íÉÖóK= fåîÉëíãÉåí= ÇÉÅáëáçåë= ~êÉ= ãçëíäó=

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ãìäíáå~íáçå~ä= Åçãé~åáÉë= Åçãé~êÉ= ã~êâÉí=

éêçëéÉÅíë= Ñçê= OMNMI= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= ã~êâÉíë= ~êÉ=

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=

Subject: Average Outstanding Account Receivables days cçêÉáÖå=Åçãé~åáÉë=çÑíÉå=ÜáÖÜäáÖÜí=é~óãÉåí=

íÉêãë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= áëëìÉ= çÑ= ~Åíì~ääó= ÄÉáåÖ= é~áÇ=

çå= íáãÉ= ~ë= çåÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ã~áå= ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë= áå=

`Üáå~K= _~ëÉÇ= çå= íÜáë= ëìêîÉóI= çåäó= ~= ëã~ää=

ãáåçêáíó=çÑ=kçêÇáÅ=~åÇ=dÉêã~å=Åçêéçê~íÉë=

Ü~îÉ= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= çìíëí~åÇáåÖ= ~ÅÅçìåí=

êÉÅÉáî~ÄäÉ= Ç~óë= çÑ=ãçêÉ= íÜ~å= VM= Ç~óëK= qÜÉ=

çåäó= ëí~íáëíáÅ~ääó= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= áë= íÜ~í=

é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= ëÉÉã= íç= ÄÉ= ëÜçêíÉê= íÜ~å=

éêÉîáçìëäóK= OQB= çÑ= êÉëéçåÇÉåíë= åçï= Ü~îÉ=

PM= Ç~óë= ~îÉê~ÖÉ= é~óãÉåí= íÉêãë= Åçãé~êÉÇ=

íç=NSB=ëáñ=ãçåíÜë=~ÖçK=

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4

Subject: Funding Needs=cìåÇáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=~êÉ=çå= íÜÉ= êáëÉK=qçÇ~óI=QOB=

çÑ=ã~å~ÖÉêë=~êÉ=ÉñéÉÅíáåÖ=ÑìåÇáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=íç=

áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ= ãçåíÜëI= ~ë=

Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= PPB= ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçK= RSB= çÑ=

ã~å~ÖÉêë= ÉñéÉÅí= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç= êÉã~áå=

ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇI= ïÜÉêÉ~ë= çåäó= çåÉ= ëáåÖäÉ=

Åçãé~åó= ÉñéÉÅíë= ÑìåÇáåÖ= åÉÉÇë= íç=

ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉK= `çåëáÇÉêáåÖ= íÜ~í= áåîÉëíãÉåí=

éä~åë= ~êÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖI= íÜáë= ëÉÉãë= äçÖáÅ~äK= ^í=

íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉI= íÜÉ= áãéêçîÉÇ= ÄìëáåÉëë=

ëáíì~íáçå=ïáíÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ë~äÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=íç=

~=ÖêÉ~íÉê=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=ïçêâáåÖ=Å~éáí~äK==

EpÉÉ=Öê~éÜ=S=çå=é~ÖÉ=RF=

=

=

Subject: FX and Interest Rates=qÜÉ= îáÉï= íÜ~í= íÜÉ= `ÜáåÉëÉ= ÉÅçåçãó= áë==

Éñé~åÇáåÖ=Ñ~ëí=Å~å=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=Ñêçã=ã~å~ÖÉêëÛ=

îáÉïë= çÑ= áåíÉêÉëí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= oj_=

ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉK= kç= Åçãé~åó= ÄÉäáÉîÉë= íÜ~í=

áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=ïáää= Ñ~ääI=ïÜÉêÉ~ë=SUB=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=

íÜ~í= ê~íÉë= ïáää= Öç= ìéK= POB= ÉñéÉÅí= ê~íÉë= íç=

ëí~ó= ~í= ÅìêêÉåí= äÉîÉäë= áå= íÜÉ= ÅçãáåÖ= ëáñ=

ãçåíÜëK= _çíÜ= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~åÇ= äÉåÇáåÖ=

ê~íÉë=~êÉ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=áå=`Üáå~=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=

äÉåÇáåÖ= ê~íÉ= Ñçê= ~= NOJãçåíÜ= Ä~åâ= äç~å= áë=

RKPNBK=qÜÉ=NOJãçåíÜ=ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉ= áë= OKORBK=

dáîÉå= íÜ~í= `Üáå~= Ü~Ç= ~= `mf= çÑ= OKTB= áå=

cÉÄêì~êóI= ÇÉéçëáí= ê~íÉë= ~êÉ= åçï= åÉÖ~íáîÉ=

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~ééêÉÅá~íáåÖ= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ= rp= Ççää~ê= ~ÑíÉê=

çîÉê=~=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=~=Ü~äÑ=çÑ= ëí~ÄäÉ=oj_Lrpa=

ê~íÉëK= RMB= ÉñéÉÅí= íÜÉ= oj_= íç= ~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=

çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=S=ãçåíÜë=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=PPB=

áå= pÉéíÉãÄÉêK= eçïÉîÉêI= ~å= Éèì~ääó= ä~êÖÉ=

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ahh= ~åÇ= ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉÇ= MKPQB= ~Ö~áåëí= íÜÉ=

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Subject: Main Concerns=qÜÉ= ã~àçê= ÅçåÅÉêå= Ñçê= äçÅ~ä= ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=

êÉã~áåë= �“ÅìëíçãÉê= ÇÉã~åÇÒI= ïÜáÅÜ= áë=

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~ÖçK= få= pÉéíÉãÄÉêI= QUB= ê~íÉÇ= áí= ~ë= íÜÉáê=

ã~áå= ÅçåÅÉêå= Åçãé~êÉÇ= íç= QRB= áå= j~êÅÜK=

qÜÉ=ÄáÖÖÉëí= ÅÜ~åÖÉ= Ñêçã=çìê= ä~ëí= ëìêîÉó= áë=

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ëáñ= ãçåíÜë= ~ÖçFK= qÜáë= ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ= äçÖáÅ~ä=

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åçï= áåîÉëíáåÖ= ~åÇ= êÉÅêìáíáåÖI= ïÜáÅÜ= ï~ë=

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=

=

China Financial Index - Composition The SEB China Financial Index in March had a value of 65, indicating a positive attitude. A value of 50 would indicate a neutral view. The index is based on four components with the following ranking in this survey: General Business Situation – 66, Profit Expectations – 59, Investment Plans – 70, and Employment Plans – 63. (see the graph on page 1) =

=


5

1. Business Conditions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Veryfavourable

Favourable Average Not sofavourable

Veryunfavourable

=

=

2. Fixed Asset Investment Plans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Majorinvestments

Modestinvestments

Noinvestments

Minordivestments

Majordivestments

=

3. Profit Expectations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

ImproveConsiderably

Improve RemainUnchanged

Deteriorate DeteriorateConsiderably

=

4. Number of Employees

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

IncreaseSignificantly

Increase RemainUnchanged

Decline DeclineSignificantly

=

5. Average Outstanding A/R

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0-30 days 30-60 days 60-90 days 90-120 days >120 days=

=

6. Funding Needs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Increase Be Unchanged Decrease=

7. RMB against USD

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Weaker RMB Unchanged RMB Stronger RMB=

8. RMB Interest Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Interest rates will fall Interest rates will go up Interest rates will beunchanged

=


6

9. Main Trading Currency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

USD EUR ScandinavianCurrencies

=

=

10. Hedging Strategy

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Hedge mostflows on-shore

Hedge someflows on-shore

Never hedge Hedging isdone by

headquarters

Have no FXflows

=

Source: SEB Shanghai. Grey stacks are indicating companies’ answers in March 2009, and September 2009

11. Main Concerns

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Custom

ers pa

ymen

t abil

ity

Custom

er de

mand

Comple

x rule

s and

regu

lation

s

Foreign

exch

ange

rates

Compe

tition

Intere

st rat

es

Skilled

labo

r sho

rtage

Cost o

f mate

rial/c

ommod

ities

=

12. Main Index

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Index value Businessclimate

Investmentplans

Employees Profit

=


7

Financial Data = =

=

=

Macro Data (% changes) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009GDP 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 8.7CPI 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7Industry Output 16.4 16.6 18.5 12.9 11.0Exports 18.2 24.7 21.7 17.3 -16.0Imports 22.2 13.9 25.7 18.5 -11.2

On-shore deposit rates, major currencies, below 3m USD equivalentOn-shore interest rates (%) Current 3M 6M 9M 12MUSD 0.0500 0.1600 0.7500 0.8500 1.0000EUR 0.1000 1.0000 1.1250 1.1875 1.2500JPY 0.0001 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100 0.0100HKD 0.0100 0.1500 0.5000 0.6250 0.7500

PBOC Rate 100311 (%) < 6M 6M-1Y 1Y-3Y 3Y-5Y > 5YLending Rates 4.86 5.31 5.4 5.76 5.94PBOC Rate 100311 (%) Current 3M 6M 1Y 2YDeposit Rates 0.36 1.71 1.98 2.25 2.79

11/Jun/10 11/Sep/10 11/Dec/10 11/Mar/11

FX 11/Mar 3M 6M 9M 12MUSD/CNY 6.826 6.824 6.812 6.792 6.753EUR/CNY 9.320 9.323 9.315 9.272 9.224GBP/CNY 10.226 10.221 10.201 10.168 10.105JPY/CNY 7.551 7.553 7.544 7.526 7.490HKD/CNY 0.880 0.879 0.878 0.875 0.870SEK/CNY 0.957 0.957 10.955 0.953 0.947DKK/CNY 1.253 1.250 1.250 1.246 1.239NOK/CNY 1.162 1.163 1.161 1.157 1.150

All indicative rates as per 2010-03-11

For further information please contact SEB Shanghai's Trading Room: [email protected] or +86 21 5396 6081

FX Indicative Spot and Forward Rates

RMB Interest Rates (PBOC Regulated)

China Financial Index

Business

Transcript of China Financial Index