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Transcript of China & Development Alternatives
China & Development Alternatives
Patrick MarrenKimmage Development Studies Centre,
Dublin,Ireland
China & Development Alternatives
Outline
Images/Impressions of China
Historical China - Admiral Zheng He
Comparative Development – India and China
The Dragons Gift - China in Africa
China - Future?
China & Development Alternatives
What comes to mind when you think of China?
Do you see China as playing a positive or negative role in world affairs?
Do you think China will become more like the West as it gets richer?
China & Development Alternatives
C15th Chinese ExplorerAdmiral Zheng He
Zheng He's Treasure Ships
Zheng He & Indian Ocean
Admiral Zheng
Series of Expeditions 1405 to 1433
4th Expedition – Malindi Kenya
28,000 men, 60 Treasure ships over 120m long and 50m wide, and 190 support ships
Trading Gold Porcelain and Silks in exchange for Herbs, Ivory, Myrrh and Giraffe
Past and Present
Zheng He's Expeditions – No bloodshed, colonisation or plundering
Peace, Friendship and Openness – Themes pushed by China today. China is not to be feared
Chinas Success
Today China is The most populous country The biggest exporter The second biggest economy Has taken 300m out of poverty
“With great wealth, comes power”
Historical Progress – Comparison with India
China Indep. 1949 Revolutionary
Socialist
India
Indep 1947
Parliamentary Democracy
Nehru 1954
“We differ in our political and economic structures, yet the problems we face are the same. The future will show which country and which structure of government yields greater results”
China and India
Broadly similar inheritance Mass rural poverty with feudal structure Acute embedded patriarchy – flagrant gender
violence – infanticide, foot binding, child marriages
High Inequalities Limited Industry, with low productivity
China and India
Differences China – culturally homogenous 90% Han One dominant language 2000 years old history
Acceptance and legitimacy of State
Commonality of socio-cultural orientation and interests
China and India
Differences India – Mosaic of Languages, cultures and
religions, further fractured by caste and class Singh (2000) Survey
4,694 communities, 13 languages spoken by 10m+, another 29 by 1m+
China and India
Power China – Based on peasants and workers –
CCP supporters India – Middle and Upper classes- Congress
Party supporters
China and India
1950 China India
GDP pc ($) 65 62 Labour (%)
Agric 77 72 Industry 16 17
Who won?
HDI Life Exp Schooling
GNI pc
years years $ ppp (2008)
CHINA 89 73.5 7.5 7258
INDIA 119 64.4 4.4 3337
Who won?
Literacy 2nd Level Enroll
3rd Level P/T ratio
% 15+ years years
CHINA 93 74 22 18
INDIA 63 57 13 40
Who won?
Agric Yields Wheat
Kg/ha
CHINA 4155
INDIA 2688
Chinese Success
Saith (2008) Development and Change
Institutional Framework India – Rigid and a constraint to development China – A prime target variable – refashioned
to accelerate growth
Land reform
India – Never took place, minimal effort, beneficiaries supporters of CP, killed off further reform
China – Massive with terrible human cost
Great Leap 1958 – 62
1959 Collectivisation not working, replaced by commune sys.
Land reform
1978 – Household Production System 3 types of reform tried 1980 – Bao Gan Dao Hu -favoured 1982 – 70% of HH practising
China Aid
China – major donor Secretive & not DAC member Concerns over impact – Human rights, Debt,
Governance
China Aid
Aid from China – Long History To counter USSR & USA Three phases Large Scale Aid projects – Tan. Zam Railways,
Dams etc – Favoured by Mao Very expensive – 5% of GDP by 72 Not successful
China Aid
2nd Phase Rehabilitation of old projects and joint
management 3rd Phase Privatisation of old projects, and joint
commercial ventures
Aid and Trade – China sees aid as benefiting both its industries and host nations
China Aid
3rd Phase Old Industries encouraged to move to EPZ Textiles and Plastics – no tax rebates Host state identified – Mauritius, Nigeria,
Tanzania etc Provided employment, provides exports,
provides market opportunities
China Aid
Chinese Aid Barter and Projects
Angola & Sudan – Major Chinese investment in infrastructure in exchange for oil
Ghana – for cocoa
Saves foreign exchange, limits corruption
China Aid
Operating Principle Non intervention in State Sovereign Issues
Human Rights and Governance concern
China as alternative – hinder change
China Aid
Policy Space – DAC alternative 1980's and 90's – 95% of Aid from DAC DAC – focussed on Neoliberal agenda Aid for Policy change – Structural Adjustment
Programmes & Governance Little Aid for Industrialisation or Agriculture
China Aid
DAC – Aid Effectiveness Paris and Accra Declarations Ownership Alignment Harmonisation Predictability
YET in reality, DAC DONORS DRIVE AGENDAS
China Aid
2000's – Global Growth Resource exports boom BRIC's – New donors - “Poor but Powerful” China – biggest and attractive
Forum of China and Africa Cooperation
China Aid
China – Africa a market not basket case African perception of China as an equal, who
gives respect
China Aid
China Aid still small, Export Credits bigger China's own lesson
“To end poverty, build a road” China's current aid practice based on own
experience of aid and development
China Aid
China Aid still small, Export Credits bigger China's own lesson
“To end poverty, build a road” China's current aid practice based on own
experience of aid and development Its consistent and conditionality free
China Aid
China Chinese Imports are a threat, but Chinese “Investment” aid has rehabilitated and
strengthened industries in host countries
“To end poverty, build a road” China's current aid practice based on own
experience of aid and development Its consistent and conditionality free
China Aid
China Is a powerful force in Africa and there for the
long haul. It is strategic and planned Ultimately, African Governments will the say as
to whether these interactions benefit their citizens
China & G20
China & US relationship - main global play
US – Bad saver, big consumer
China – Big saver, bad consumer
2000's US trade deficits with China, funded by China
China – Hold $2.5 tn in reserves China – Seen as unfair player – exchange rate Trade tensions in 2009
China & G20
China's focus on exports – weakness Rising internal tensions – Inequality, Rural –
Urban divide, Corruption, Nepotism Needs growth to placate population, address
inequality, etc
But cannot rely on exports Must revalue currency, encourage domestic
demand – 35% of GDP currently
China & G20
G20
19 countries plus EU (also invites IFI's) Replacement of G8 Represents 2/3rds of Global Pop, 80% of
Trade and 85% of GDP Centre for Global Governance
China & G20
Pittsburgh Summit – G20 focus
Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth
Strengthening the International Financial Regulatory System
Modernizing our Global Institutions to Reflect Today's Global Economy
Reforming the Mandate, Mission, and Governance of the IMF
Reforming the Mission, Mandate, and Governance of Our Development Banks
Energy Security and Climate Change
Strengthening Support for the Most Vulnerable
Putting Quality Jobs at the Heart of the Recovery
An Open Global Economy
China & G20
For China
G20 – a recognition of its global power status – cloaked in appearance of a broader rebalancing of Old and New powers
G20 – takes spot light away from China, slowly growing into its role, but still uncomfortable with this new power
China & G20
Q: Will G20 sit above BWI’s? As steering and reforming institution
Possibly – it’s globally representative, more authoritative and legitimate than previous G groups
Includes Old and New, comprises most of established and emerging powers, producing most of the worlds output, but small enough to reach agreement.
China & G20
USA - Worried about “Multipolarity without multilateralism” Old Global institutions ineffective, not representative, in capable to dealing with new millennium challanges.
G20 with a nested G2 offers a way of meeting those challenges
Sino-US relations – remain most important in terms of global impact, but focussed on economic interests rather than geostrategic rivalry
China & G20
China – Views Will collapse Will become like US & Europe Will survive as China
CCP – Lesson from Tiananmen Refuse equal dialogue with society Fear for breakup of CCP unity – closed ranks,
debates now internal But its shown to be receptive to change to maintain
survival