China BYD 1 December 2017 Industry -...

1 December 2017

Automobiles & Components

BYD

Automobiles & ComponentsRecommendationChange

AsiaChina

Industry

BYDDate1 December 2017

Deutsche BankMarkets Research

Losing its charge; downgrading Hshares to HoldPotential extra subsidy cuts and competition are additional negativesBYD has scarcity value and the potential to attract premium multiples because ofits thematic attraction, as China’s leading NEV company with 40-50% of earningsfrom the segment. However, at the same time as the share price has surged by70% YTD against the HSCEI's 22%, the company has in fact been losing marketshare. Sales have actually declined, while the total market has risen by 45%.Looking ahead, it is now vulnerable to changes to the subsidy regime and marginswill likely come under pressure. We have revised our forecasts to reflect thesechanges and based on new estimates we now believe the shares are fully valued.We downgrade BYD-H's rating to Hold.

Opportunities are still there...Year-to-October, China sold 490k units of NEVs, up 45% YoY. Government targetsstill point to 5m units on the road by 2020 and NEVs reaching 20% of all salesby 2025. There will likely be changes to the subsidy structure but we believe theemphasis will shift to incentives for car owners, not producers and we remainconfident in a forecast of 36% sales growth for the next three years. BYD is wellpositioned here and will also have extra revenue streams from potential NEVbattery sales to third parties, sales of their excess NEV credits and more monorailproject income recognition.

But headwinds are also strengthening Figure 1: BYD - forecast changesummary

2017E 2018E 2019E

Vehicle sales (units)

New 398,126 487,869 539,432

Old 399,946 454,881 500,666

% Change -0.5% 7.3% 7.7%

Revenue (RMBm)

New 106,212 134,989 155,921

Old 111,033 140,271 161,592

% Change -4.3% -3.8% -3.5%

Net profit (RMBm)

New 4,152 5,553 6,634

Old 4,189 6,289 7,439

% Change -0.9% -11.7% -10.8%

Source: Deutsche Bank

However, BYD’s NEV sales of 89k units, were down 5% in 10M17, as more OEMslaunch new products. We think that competition will further intensify with moreJVs launching products in 2018-19E, amid the rollout of the fuel economy/NEVdual credit system. The bus business is also vulnerable and can lose more than20% of its subsidy revenue in FY18E with the potential subsidy cuts. What is more,as OEMs will try to squeeze battery suppliers on pricing, the chances are that BYDmay need to budget a lower price when selling to third parties. Last but not least,BYD's monorail's growth outlook could also be hindered by recent governmenttightening of the standards of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects.

Earnings downgrades mainly due to subsidy cut Key downside risks: weak car sales, a slowmargin recovery in the auto and batterybusinesses, and more equity fund raising.Key upside risks: rapid auto sales and marginimprovement, and better sales and/or amargin recovery in the battery business.

We lower our FY17-19E earnings by 1-12%, mainly on lower NEV subsidy incomeand battery sales income, and the subsequent margin squeeze. Our SOTP-derivedtarget prices imply a target FY18E P/E of 32x, which we believe is still wellsupported by BYD's meaningful exposure to China's NEV market.

Vincent Ha, CFA

Research Analyst

+852-2203 6247

Fei Sun, CFA

Research Analyst

+852-2203 6130

Yuki Lu

Research Associate

+852-2203 5925

Key ChangesCompany Target Price Rating

1211.HK 80.70 to 75.90 Buy to Hold

002594.SZ 68.70 to 64.30 -Source: Deutsche Bank

Companies featured

BYD (1211.HK),HKD70.85 Hold

BYD-A (002594.SZ),CNY64.35 HoldSource: Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONSARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE ’ SREPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OFPRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU.

Distributed on: 30/11/2017 16:03:07 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c

1 December 2017


BYD

More challenges mountingEarnings downgrade on lower NEV/NEV batterybusinesses' profit estimate

We lower our FY17 revenue and profit forecast mainly on lower vehicle salesand ASP assumption. For FY18-19E, our revenue forecast is lowered by 3.5-3.8%on the back of lower NEV revenue estimate, on market share decline, subsidycut and lower NEV battery pricing, partly offset by higher conventional car salesvolume assumptions, considering the new design and better market perception.Lower subsidies and NEV battery business margin expectation also lead to our10.8-11.7% earnings cut for FY18-19E, after assuming some further reduction inBYD's NEV production costs to mitigate the subsidy cut impact.

Figure 2: BYD – summary of Deutsche Bank’s forecasts and revisions

2017E 2018E 2019E

Vehicle sales (units)

New 398,126 487,869 539,432

Old 399,946 454,881 500,666

% Change -0.5% 7.3% 7.7%

Revenue (RMBm)

New 106,212 134,989 155,921

Old 111,033 140,271 161,592

% Change -4.3% -3.8% -3.5%

Net profit (RMBm)

New 4,152 5,553 6,634

Old 4,189 6,289 7,439

% Change -0.9% -11.7% -10.8%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates


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BYD

Figure 3: BYD - major assumptions underlying Deutsche Bank's forecasts

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Vehicle sales volume ('000 units) 440.3 447.3 507.6 398.1 487.9 539.4

YoY growth -13.1% 1.6% 13.5% -21.6% 22.5% 10.6%

Auto ASP (RMB) 59,670 87,036.1 108,388.2 130,693.3 132,837.1 134,718.7

YoY growth 19.5% 45.9% 24.5% 20.6% 1.6% 1.4%

Turnover (RMBm)

Auto 26,270 38,933.9 55,022.1 52,032.4 64,807.1 72,671.6

YoY growth 3.9% 48.2% 41.3% -5.4% 24.6% 12.1%

Batteries 4,980 5,750.0 7,103.0 7,058.9 11,873.5 14,647.8

YoY growth -0.8% 15.5% 23.5% -0.6% 68.2% 23.4%

Handset components & assembly 24,116 32,928.1 38,082.6 42,120.9 46,308.6 50,601.9

YoY growth 23.9% 36.5% 15.7% 10.6% 9.9% 9.3%

Others (including monorail) 0 0 0 5,000 12,000 18,000

Total 55,366 77,612.0 100,207.7 106,212.3 134,989.2 155,921.3

YoY growth 11.2% 40.2% 29.1% 6.0% 27.1% 15.5%

Gross profit margin 13.8% 15.3% 19.0% 17.9% 18.2% 18.3%

Net profit margin 0.8% 3.6% 5.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%

Source: Company data, CAAM, Deutsche Bank estimates

Our FY18-19E forecast is considerably below consensus as we are probably morecautious on BYD's NEV business amid a potential subsidy cut.

Figure 4: BYD – Deutsche Bank’s net profit forecasts vs. consensus (post3Q17 results)(RMBm) FY17E FY18E FY19E

Deutsche Bank's net profit forecast 4,152 5,553 6,634

Bloomberg consensus net profit forecast 4,368 6,646 7,953

Difference (%) -5% -16% -17%

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank estimates

Potential subsidy cut not just affecting BYD's autobusiness

Why a cut?In recent months, various media, such as Xinhua news, reported that the Chinesegovernment is considering a cut in the NEV subsidy level in 2018. While noofficial announcement has been made yet, we think the likelihood is high, onthe following rationale. To begin with, Yutong Bus (600066.SS, RMB23.79, Buy)said in its 3Q17 results briefing that such a cut, or policy refinement, is possibleas the company observes a faster-than-expected battery price decline, and it isgovernment's goal to not allow excessive subsidies to NEV OEMs. Besides, thegovernment also has the intention to encourage the adoption of higher qualitybatteries for NEVs. Last but not least, when we discussed the matter with Mr.Yongqiu Tian, an independent consultant and NEV industry expert, he stated thata subsidy cut, also highly likely in his mind, does not contradict the government'sgoal to grow NEV ownership. This is because instead of heavily subsidizingOEMs, the government can shift its resources to encouraging NEV ownership.


1 December 2017


BYD

For instance, the government can charge congestion fees for conventional carsin big cities while waiving such fees for NEVs.

Likely version of new subsidy schemeAccording to Mr. Tian and other news media, the government probably has notfinalized the revised scheme, but some proposals have been laid out. After somenews screening, we have the following key highlights of the most widely-quotedproposal version. Firstly, for passenger electric vehicles (EV), there would bemore driving range categories, with deep subsidy cuts for low ranges but highersubsidies for long ranges. For passenger plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV),the subsidy amount would be slightly cut but the fuel economy requirement inhybrid mode could also be tightened.

For commercial NEVs, non-fast-charge electric bus subsidy per kWh would becut and the subsidy cap would also be cut. There would also be deep cuts to per-kWh subsidy and a subsidy cap cut for specialized vehicles.

Figure 5: China - possible changes in passenger NEVsubsidy

Figure 6: China - possible changes in commercial NEVsubsidy

Driving range (km) 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-300 300-350 ш350

2017 actual 20,000 44,000

2018 proposal 0 20,000 28,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Relevant BYD models Song EV Qin EV, E5 E6

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with pure electric driving range of 50km or higher

2017 actual 24,000

2018 proposal 22,000

Remarks: There are also likely to be higher requirements for battery power density, power

consumption per 100km and fuel consumption in hybrid mode.

36,000

Non-fast-charge electric bus

- Cut per kWh subsidy from RMB1,800 to RMB1,100

- Central government subsidy cap per bus from RMB230,000 to RMB180,000

- Central + local government subsidy cap per bus from RMB345,000 to RMB270,000

New energy specialized vehicle

- Cut per kWh subsidy from RMB1,000-1,500 to RMB900

- Central government subsidy cap per bus from RMB150,000 to RMB100,000

Source: www.d1EV.com, Deutsche Bank Source: www.d1EV.com, Deutsche Bank

Potential impact on BYD - more than just on NEV revenue and marginsIn 1H17, BYD's NEV sales accounted for 69% of the auto segment's revenueand 35% of total revenue. NEV's sales contribution is expected to increase goingforward, given faster growth in NEV demand. Assuming the 2018 subsidy cutwould be implemented as mentioned in the previous paragraph, we think thatBYD would not see much impact, if any, on passenger EV sales, as its productshave a long driving range, thus would not subject to a subsidy cut. For thepassenger PHEV, the subsidy cut extent would be about 15%, assuming notightening in fuel consumption requirement, and the revenue impact would beless than 5%. The area with the biggest hit would be the bus segment, as thesubsidy cut extent would be at least 20% and the revenue impact would bebetween 5-10%. Although the bus segment only accounted for 3% of BYD'svehicle sales in 10M17, its revenue contribution is much higher, given the highASPs of over RMB1m .

All in all, we think that on a whole-company basis, an extra NEV subsidy cut isnot going to have more than a 3% revenue impact on BYD. But if BYD is unableto cut the NEV costs at the same pace, NEV's business margin could be furthersqueezed in future.


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BYD

Figure 7: BYD - 10M17 vehicle sales volume mix Figure 8: BYD - 1H17 revenue and EBIT mix

Conventional PV

72%

Passenger EV11%

Passenger PHEV14%

Electric buses3%

Revenue RMBm % Contribution

New energy vehicles 15,555 35%

Conventional vehicles 6,878 16%

Handset components & assembly 17,963 41%

Batteries and photovoltaic 3,421 8%Total 43,817

Segment EBIT RMBm % Contribution

All vehicles 1,884 53%

Handset components & assembly 1,661 47%

Batteries and photovoltaic -14 0%

Total 3,531

Remark: excluding Denza JV Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) Source: Company data

As we do not believe that customers will be able willing to pay more for NEVsnext year, OEMs can only squeeze upstream suppliers or improve internal costs inorder to mitigate margin pressure. As such, we see downside risks to NEV batteryprice expectation in 2018E, and we also cut our price and margin assumptionsfor BYD's planned third-party NEV battery sales.

Bigger NEV market ahead but more competition too

NEV sales to thrive with high seasonal volatilityGiven market worries over a subsidy cut in 2018E, we think that there could belast-minute panic purchases before year-end 2017. While this could lead to a slowstart in 2018 year-beginning NEV sales, as happened in early 2017, we think thatthe exponential sales volume growth will continue next year with: 1) more OEMstrying to launch NEV models, and 2) rush-buying before another round of subsidycuts in 2019. In other words, the annual NEV sales pattern is likely to stay back-end loaded.

Considering the aforementioned factors, we slightly raise our China NEV salesforecast on the back of better-than-expected YTD sales, year-end sales rush, andan unchanged government goal to reach 5m units of NEV ownership by 2020Eand 10% vehicle sales volume contribution by 2025E. Note that our 1.5m-unit2020 NEV sales estimate is below the government target of 2m units, but we thinkthat would be sufficient to achieve the 5m-unit ownership mark and to meet theNEV credit requirement for the industry as a whole.


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BYD

Figure 9: China - NEV monthly sales trend Figure 10: China - NEV sales forecast

-200%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

EV PHEV Total NEV YoY(units) (YoY)(m units) 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Passenger EV 0.26 0.43 0.59 0.75 0.91

YoY% 75% 69% 36% 28% 21%

Passenger PHEV 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.17 0.21

YoY% 31% 38% 19% 32% 25%

Total passenger NEV 0.34 0.54 0.72 0.92 1.13

YoY% 62% 62% 32% 28% 22%

Commercial EV 0.15 0.15 0.22 0.30 0.38

YoY% 51% -4% 53% 35% 26%

Commercial PHEV 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03

YoY% -19% -24% 16% 41% 29%

Total commercial NEV 0.17 0.16 0.24 0.32 0.41

YoY% 38% -5% 49% 35% 26%

Grand total NEV 0.51 0.70 0.96 1.25 1.54

YoY% 53% 39% 36% 30% 23%

Remark: excluding specialized NEVs Source: CAAM Source: CAAM, Deutsche Bank

But BYD's market share is under siegeBYD has been losing market share YTD to other local brand OEMs that are nowpaying more attention to the segment with more models, e.g. BAIC BJEV whichhas a strong presence in Beijing, one of the key NEV markets in China. Goingforward, we think that the competition will become more intense as more localand foreign OEMs are rolling out their NEVs in 2018-19 to get ready for thecounting of NEV credit starting 2019. For instance, with limited NEV exposure atthe moment, Volkswagen announced that they plan to deliver about 400k unitsof NEV in 2020E. Their new JV with Jianghuai will also launch its first NEV modelin 2018.

NEV credit selling - realistic price is not known yet

Mr. Tian, the industry expert we met on our auto trip last week, estimates thatBYD amassed close to 300k NEV credits in 2016. These credits theoretically canbe sold to other OEMs (e.g. Great Wall with a ~200k fuel economy debit, onMr. Tian's estimate) in 2018 - for them to meet the 2016/17 fuel economy creditrequirement, or kept for future NEV credit sale (but at a discount). However, Mr.Tian also estimates that there are about 850k units of NEV credits in the market in2016 vs. about 500k units of fuel economy debit, which could be offset by buyingNEV credits for 2016/17. Therefore, a surplus NEV credit may not be valued much,given the near-term oversupply.

Regarding the 2018 implementation of the dual credit system, OEMs will have allthe time until 2020 to accumulate enough credits for 2019/20 and hence the realcredit trading may not happen until mid-to-late 2020.

Based on a study by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), most of themajor auto conglomerates in China could not meet the dual credit target if thepolicy were in force today. However, we think the situation will change, as groupslike SAIC, including its local brands and JVs, have big plans for rolling out NEVsin the next couple of years. All in all, we think it is still debatable whether the NEVcredits will be worth much in 2020E, but we admit that this could represent anupside risk to BYD's profitability beyond 2019.


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BYD

Figure 11: China - major auto groups' NEV credits in 10M17PV production

Conventional NEV NEV credit Credit as % of

Name (m units) ('000 units) ('000) conventional PV production

SAIC 5.07 42.1 110 2.2%

Dongfeng 2.71 7.9 30 1.1%

FAW 2.52 0.7 2 0.1%

Chang'an 1.76 41.7 120 6.8%

Guangzhou Auto 1.72 5.1 13 0.8%

BAIC 1.45 63.6 184 12.7%

Geely 1.02 56.7 181 17.8%

Great Wall 0.67 2.6 8 1.2%

Chery 0.40 22.2 61 15.4%

Brilliance 0.46 1.7 3 0.7%

BYD 0.23 66.5 202 87.8%

Remark: 2019 NEV credit requirement - 10%; 2020 NEV credit requirement - 12%

Source: China Passenger Car Association (CPCA)

Monorail business growth is not hassle-free

According to our China Equity Strategy report "Featuring PPP Part 4: An inflectionpoint after three-year high growth" dated 22 November, the Chinese governmenthas become increasingly concerned that local governments may misuse PPPas a disguised borrowing vehicle to circumvent policy restrictions. Since May,the Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced three major notices in order tostrengthen PPP project controls (Documents No. 50, 87 and 92). Document92, announced on 17 November, is a more concrete guideline for removingunqualified projects from the PPP database. Although our China team expectsmodest impact on the fixed asset investment outlook in 2018, due to the smallpercentage of reduced investment within total FAI, the growing PPP momentumis set to face an inflection point.

Since part of BYD's future monorail projects would probably be under the PPPformat, a slowdown in PPP growth could hinder the outlook of the company'snew business.


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BYD

Valuation and risksValuation still fair given its unique NEV exposure in theHong Kong stock market

Our SOTP-derived target prices are based on 1) a peer average FY18E P/E of 15.9x,19.7x and 6.6x for the handset business (19% of SOTP value), battery business(2% of SOTP value) and monorail business (2% of SOTP value), respectively; and 2)a peer average FY18E P/sales of 1.5x and 2.3x for the conventional auto business(15% of SOTP value) and the NEV business (62% of SOTP value), respectively, aswe think the market cares more about BYD's NEV sales momentum rather thanimmediate profitability. The implied target FY18E P/E is 31.6x, the highest targetP/E benchmark among its local peers, which we believe is justified by its uniqueexposure to China's NEV market and its 26% FY17-19E two-year EPS CAGR. Butwith less than 10% upside after the share price rally YTD, we downgrade BYD-Hto Hold, and maintain Hold on BYD-A.

Figure 12: BYD - sum-of-the-parts valuation summary Figure 13: BYD - rolling forward P/E bandSegment

BYD Electronic 15.9 0.93 14.8

Battery and others 19.7 0.06 1.3

Monorail 6.5 0.22 1.4

Conventional auto (P/sales) 1.5 7.43 11.2

New energy vehicles (P/sales) 2.3 20.60 47.2

BYD Overall (HKD) 75.9

Implied overall FY18E P/E 31.6

Industry P/E or

P/sales

FY18E EPS or sales

per share (HKD)

Target price

(HKD)

2016 2017E 2018E

EPS growth 71.7% -22.2% 33.7%

10

20

30

40

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct-

15

Jan-1

6

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct-

16

Jan-1

7

Apr-

17

Jul-1

7

Oct-

17

Mean

(x)

+1 SD

-1 SD

Source: Deutsche Bank Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank

Risks

Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected car sales, inability to lower NEVproduction cost, a slower-than-expected margin recovery in the battery business,and more capital fund raising in future years to keep up with the NEV businessinvestments.

Key upside risks include rapid auto sales and margin improvement driven bysuccessful new models, ability to lower NEV production cost, and better-than-expected sales and/or a margin recovery in the battery business.


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BYD

Model updated: 30 November 2017

Running the numbersAsiaChinaAutomobiles & Components

BYDReuters: 1211.HK Bloomberg: 1211 HK

HoldPrice (29 Nov 17) HKD 70.85

Target Price HKD 75.90

52 Week range HKD 40.30 - 80.45

Market cap (m) HKDm 193,289 USDm 24,752

Company ProfileBYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in threemain businesses: 1) Li-ion and nickel rechargeable batteries;2) handset components and assembly services; and 3) theproduction of autos, including hybrid and electric vehicles.

Price Performance

BYD HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased)

Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '1720

40

60

80

100

Margin Trends

EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E

5

10

15

0

20

Growth & Profitibility

Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS)

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

1020304050

0510152025

Solvency

Net debt/equity (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS)

14 15 16 17E 18E 19E0

255075

100125

123456

Vincent Ha, CFA+852 2203 6247 [email protected]

Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Financial SummaryDB EPS (CNY) 0.18 1.14 1.96 1.52 2.04 2.43Reported EPS (CNY) 0.18 1.14 1.96 1.52 2.04 2.43DPS (CNY) 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.15 0.22 0.29BVPS (CNY) 10.2 13.0 18.8 19.8 21.6 23.9Weighted average shares (m) 2,425 2,476 2,581 2,728 2,728 2,728Average market cap (CNYm) 88,132 80,928 100,222 163,264 163,264 163,264Enterprise value (CNYm) 116,448 114,406 137,286 202,144 203,140 202,409

Valuation MetricsP/E (DB) (x) 203.3 28.7 19.8 39.3 29.4 24.6P/E (Reported) (x) 203.3 28.7 19.8 39.3 29.4 24.6P/BV (x) 2.35 2.65 1.86 3.03 2.76 2.51FCF Yield (%) nm nm nm 1.6 1.7 3.1Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.5EV/Sales (x) 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.3EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 12.1 8.7 12.6 10.7 9.4EV/EBIT (x) 50.9 28.2 15.6 24.5 19.2 16.3

Income Statement (CNYm)Sales revenue 55,366 77,612 100,208 106,212 134,989 155,921Gross profit 7,623 11,859 19,018 19,026 24,539 28,586EBITDA 6,603 9,480 15,843 16,012 19,012 21,431Depreciation 3,704 4,486 5,309 5,841 6,310 6,725Amortisation 611 931 1,719 1,916 2,106 2,280EBIT 2,288 4,063 8,815 8,255 10,596 12,426Net interest income(expense) -1,292 -1,464 -1,647 -1,964 -2,101 -2,165Associates/affiliates -122 -243 -600 -40 -30 -20Exceptionals/extraordinaries 0 1,438 0 0 0 0Other pre-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Profit before tax 874 3,795 6,568 6,251 8,465 10,241Income tax expense 134 657 1,088 1,188 1,693 2,151Minorities 306 315 428 911 1,219 1,456Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0Net profit 434 2,823 5,052 4,152 5,553 6,634DB adjustments (including dilution) 0 0 0 0 0 0DB Net profit 434 2,823 5,052 4,152 5,553 6,634

Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations 38 3,842 -1,846 13,034 12,607 14,244Net Capex -7,781 -10,482 -12,857 -10,450 -9,800 -9,150Free cash flow -7,743 -6,640 -14,702 2,584 2,807 5,094Equity raised/(bought back) 3,395 0 14,473 0 0 0Dividends paid -146 -37 -185 -1,487 -415 -611Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 5,314 5,774 4,532 1,272 1,711 -992Other investing/financing cash flows -1,381 2,963 -3,017 -1,881 -2,059 -2,196Net cash flow -561 2,061 1,100 488 2,044 1,295Change in working capital -6,106 -5,705 -17,331 -1,686 -5,455 -5,803

Balance Sheet (CNYm)Cash and other liquid assets 3,950 6,011 7,111 7,599 9,643 10,938Tangible fixed assets 36,379 38,126 42,049 44,857 46,697 47,622Goodwill/intangible assets 10,821 11,824 12,008 11,746 11,130 10,193Associates/investments 1,414 1,889 2,245 2,205 2,175 2,155Other assets 41,445 57,635 81,658 85,565 103,231 117,208Total assets 94,009 115,486 145,071 151,972 172,875 188,116Interest bearing debt 30,152 37,643 42,267 43,629 45,429 44,527Other liabilities 34,962 41,814 47,394 49,367 62,123 70,796Total liabilities 65,114 79,457 89,661 92,995 107,553 115,323Shareholders' equity 25,366 32,294 51,256 53,921 59,059 65,082Minorities 3,529 3,735 4,153 5,055 6,264 7,710Total shareholders' equity 28,894 36,029 55,409 58,976 65,323 72,793Net debt 26,202 31,632 35,156 36,029 35,787 33,589

Key Company MetricsSales growth (%) 11.2 40.2 29.1 6.0 27.1 15.5DB EPS growth (%) -23.9 537.9 71.7 -22.2 33.7 19.5EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 12.2 15.8 15.1 14.1 13.7EBIT Margin (%) 4.1 5.2 8.8 7.8 7.8 8.0Payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 27.8 10.0 11.0 12.0ROE (%) 1.8 9.8 12.1 7.9 9.8 10.7Capex/sales (%) 15.5 15.8 13.0 10.2 7.5 6.1Capex/depreciation (x) 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1Net debt/equity (%) 90.7 87.8 63.4 61.1 54.8 46.1Net interest cover (x) 1.8 2.8 5.4 4.2 5.0 5.7

Source: Company data, Deutsche Securities estimates


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BYD

Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

*Other information available upon request

Disclosure checklistCompany Ticker Recent price* Disclosure

BYD-A 002594.SZ 64.35 (CNY) 29 Nov 2017 14, 15

BYD 1211.HK 70.85 (HKD) 29 Nov 2017 13, 14, 15*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg, and other vendors. Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than theprimary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm/db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal"tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

Important Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.

14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from thiscompany within the past year.

15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time itreceived non-investment banking securities-related services.

Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.

13. As of the end of the preceding week, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of a class ofcommon equity securities of this company.

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our websiteat http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Vincent Ha


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Historical recommendations and target price. BYD-A (002594.SZ)

(as of 11/29/2017)

Current RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating

** Analyst is no longer atDeutsche Bank

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1. 03/12/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 27,70 Vincent Ha, CFA 11. 08/08/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 50,30 Vincent Ha, CFA2. 06/02/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 40,90 Vincent Ha, CFA 12. 08/29/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 51,60 Vincent Ha, CFA3. 08/07/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 34,80 Vincent Ha, CFA 13. 11/24/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 46,70 Vincent Ha, CFA4. 08/27/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 30,90 Vincent Ha, CFA 14. 02/20/2017 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 44,80 Vincent Ha, CFA5. 10/29/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 34,90 Vincent Ha, CFA 15. 03/29/2017 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 42,60 Vincent Ha, CFA6. 11/27/2015 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 35,90 Vincent Ha, CFA 16. 06/21/2017 Upgraded to Hold, Target Price Change CNY 51,90

Vincent Ha, CFA7. 03/14/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 38,20 Vincent Ha, CFA 17. 08/29/2017 Hold, Target Price Change CNY 48,80 Vincent Ha, CFA8. 03/29/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 39,50 Vincent Ha, CFA 18. 10/02/2017 Hold, Target Price Change CNY 73,30 Vincent Ha, CFA9. 05/18/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 42,60 Vincent Ha, CFA 19. 10/30/2017 Hold, Target Price Change CNY 68,70 Vincent Ha, CFA10. 07/15/2016 Sell, Target Price Change CNY 48,90 Vincent Ha, CFA§§§§$$$$$§§§§§


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BYD

Historical recommendations and target price. BYD (1211.HK)

(as of 11/29/2017)

Current RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating

** Analyst is no longer atDeutsche Bank

Date

Secu

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pric

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6 7 8 9101112

13 14 1516 17

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Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '170.00

100.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

1. 01/04/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 34,90 Vincent Ha, CFA 11. 08/08/2016 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 58,80 Vincent Ha, CFA2. 06/02/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 51,10 Vincent Ha, CFA 12. 08/29/2016 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 60,00 Vincent Ha, CFA3. 08/07/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 43,50 Vincent Ha, CFA 13. 11/24/2016 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 52,60 Vincent Ha, CFA4. 08/27/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 37,30 Vincent Ha, CFA 14. 02/20/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 50,60 Vincent Ha, CFA5. 10/29/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 42,50 Vincent Ha, CFA 15. 03/29/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 48,20 Vincent Ha, CFA6. 11/27/2015 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 43,50 Vincent Ha, CFA 16. 06/21/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 59,50 Vincent Ha, CFA7. 03/14/2016 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 45,60 Vincent Ha, CFA 17. 08/29/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 57,70 Vincent Ha, CFA8. 03/29/2016 Hold, Target Price Change HKD 47,00 Vincent Ha, CFA 18. 10/02/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 85,80 Vincent Ha, CFA9. 05/18/2016 Upgraded to Buy, Target Price Change HKD 50,80

Vincent Ha, CFA19. 10/30/2017 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 80,70 Vincent Ha, CFA

10. 07/15/2016 Buy, Target Price Change HKD 56,80 Vincent Ha, CFA§§§§$$$$$§§§§§

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holderreturn (TSR = percentage change in share price from currentprice to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) ,we recommend that investors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holderreturn, we recommend that investors sell the stock.Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buyor Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target pricessupersede previously published research.


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Additional Information

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Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promiseto pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed-rate instruments (thus receiving these cashflows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thuscause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, thehigher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among themost common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, clientsegmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in taxpolicies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or liquidation ofpositions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors. The sensitivity of fixed-income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, toFX depreciation, or to specified interest rates – these are common in emerging markets. The index fixings may – byconstruction – lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice ofthe proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexedto a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. Funding in a currency that differsfrom the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Options on swaps (swaptions) the risks typical tooptions in addition to the risks related to rates movements.??Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. Theappropriateness of these products for use by investors depends on the investors' own circumstances, including theirtax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities; as such, investors shouldtake expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of thispublication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of thehigh degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than theamount of funds initially deposited – up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is notsuitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks ofStandardized Options”, at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. If you are unable toaccess the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document.??Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including: (i) exchange rates canbe volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; (ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors,including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes ininterest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government-imposed exchange controls, which couldaffect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of anunderlying security, effectively assume currency risk.??Deutsche Bank is not acting as a financial adviser, consultant or fiduciary to you or any of your agents with respect toany information provided in this report. Deutsche Bank does not provide investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, andis not acting as an impartial adviser. Information contained herein is being provided on the basis that the recipient willmake an independent assessment of the merits of any investment decision, and is not meant for retirement accounts orfor any specific person or account type. The information we provide is directed only to persons we believe to be financiallysophisticated, who are capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in general and with regard to particulartransactions and investment strategies, and who understand that Deutsche Bank has financial interests in the offering ofits products and services. If this is not the case, or if you or your agent are an IRA or other retail investor receiving thisdirectly from us, we ask that you inform us immediately.

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Research

Michael SpencerHead of APAC Research

Global Head of Economics

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Equity Research

Dave ClarkHead of APAC

Equity Research

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Equity Derivatives Research

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Spyros MesomerisGlobal Head of Quantitative

and QIS Research

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