Changing Landscape of Global Market

- China, Asia and the World

Fuqiang Yang

NRDC

Canberra, 18/06/2014

Data Source：China Statistical Yearbook 2011, 2012, 2013

China GDP and Energy Consumption

Growth Rates, 2001 - 2013

10.74 11.72 12.9

14.2

15.8

17.81

20.33

22.29

24.34

26.58

29.02

31.29

33.7

8.1

9.5 10.6

10.4 10.7

13.3 14.6

9.8 8.9

10.8

9.2

7.8 7.7

3

6

15 16

11 10

8

4 5

6

7

3.9 3.7

7 7 8

8 7.5

7.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

Total Domestic Production GDP Increase Rate Energy Consumption Yearly Increase Rate Government's expected GDP Increase

Primary energy consumption and composition

(1978-2012)

Data Source：China Statistical Yearbook

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

19

78

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

10

Th

ou

snd

TC

E

Coal Oil Gas Hydro,Nuclear and Wind

China Energy Consumption Mix, 2013

Information Source: China Energy Statistical Report, 2013

REGIONAL COAL CONSUMPTION CAPS TO ADDRESS

AIR POLLUTION

5

Beijing/Tianjin/Hebei

384 mt

Yangtze River

Delta 483 mt

Pearl River Delta 120 mt

Shandong 389 mt

• 4 key air pollution control regions

totaled 1/3 of national coal

consumption in 2011

Environmental and Ecologic Losses from Coal Use

and Exploitation Equivalent to 7-9% of Annual GDP

6

Data Source： “True Cost of Coal”, Greenpeace China Program,2008

Losses and Damage

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2013 Total Vehicles 2013 Total Private Vehicles 2013 Total Cars 2013 Total Private Cars

Am

ou

nt

13.7%

17.%

19% 20.8%

Rapid Increase in China Vehicles Stock Increase 2013

Net Importation of Energy Types, 2012

Crude Oil

270 M tons

Coefficient

55.8%

Oil Product

57 M tons

67.6%

Coal

289 M tons

7.7%

Natural Gas

38.6 B cm

26.8%

Source：BP Global Energy Data，2013年

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

'Mill

ion

to

nn

es

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

US Energy Production US Energy ConsumptionChina Energy Production China Energy ConsumptionIndia Energy Production India Energy Consumption

Energy production trends and prediction

of US, China and India

Data source：BP Energy Outlook 2035

Global Energy Demand Growth Shift to Asia

Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)

China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

5% 4%

65%

10%

8%

8%

Eurasia OECD

Non-OECD Asia

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

Share of global growth 2012-2035

Brazil

480 1 540

India

1 000

Japan 440

Southeast Asia

© OECD/IEA 2013

China

4 060

1 030

Africa

2 240 United States

1 710

Europe 1 370

Eurasia

Middle 1 050 East

1 阿联酋 2 阿曼 3 阿塞拜疆 4 巴基斯坦 5 巴林岛 6 菲律宾 7 哈萨克斯坦 8 卡塔尔 9 科威特

10 马拉西亚 11 孟加拉 12 缅甸 13 南韩

14 其他中东国家

15 日本 16 沙特阿拉伯 17 泰国 18 土库曼斯坦 19 文莱

20 乌兹别克斯坦

21 新加坡 22 叙利亚 23 也门 24 伊拉克 25 伊朗 26 以色列 27 印度 28 印度尼西亚 29 越南 30 中国 31 中国台湾 32 中国香港

Major Asian Countries

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

Oil Production OilConsumption

Natural GasProduction

Natural GasConsumption

Coal Production CoalConsumption

Oil Production

Oil Consumption

Natural Gas Production

Natural Gas Consumption

Coal Production

Coal Consumption

The fossil energy production and consumption

in major Asian countries

Shale Gas Development and Environmental Impact

Photo: NASA

20

27

%

Shale Gas Development and Water Risk

Information Sources: : Manish Bapna, WRI, 2013

Information Source: USDOD China Report 2013

Figure 2: China’s Import Transit Routes

China’s Import Transit Routes

Sino-Russia Long Term Natural Gas Deal

Sino-Russia Natural Gas Pipelines

– 60/100 GW small hydro – 100/200 GW wind – 35/50GW solar PV – 13/30 GW biomass – 300 million square meters solar

water heater – 24 billion cubic meters biogas

• More than 540 million tons of coal equivalent in total by 2020

Renewables to Be 11.4% and 15% of Energy

Consumption Mix by 2015 and 2020

China Renewable Energy Target

Sustainable Energy Development—Supply

Photo: NASA

2012 2020 2030 2050

9.1

15

20

27

33

50

%

Year

Low

High

Low

High Super smart grid and high penetration

of renewable energy development

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

China Germany India United States

To

tal

Insta

lled

Cap

acit

y (

GW

)

Hydropower

Wind Power

Solar PV

Geothermal Power

Biomass Power

Installed Renewable Capacity

Source: REN21

LBNL CIS, 11,192

LBNL AIS, 7,352

ERI Baseline, 14,200

ERI Efficient, 12,200

ERI Low Carbon, 8,700

ERI Accel Low Carbon, 5,100

6908

9600

IEA Ref, 11600

6631

8400

IEA 450, 7100

LBNL CIS with CCS, 10,716

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tota

l CO

2 Em

issi

ons (

Mill

ion

tonn

es C

O2)

450 ppm

LBNL/IEA Reference scenarios

Comparison of Carbon Emissions among Scenarios Information Sources: : “China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050,” LBNL report, 2011

China’s Climate Challenge

Information Source: ERI Report 2014

CO2 Emission Scenario 2010-2050

30.0

70.0

110.0

150.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

REF CM1 CM2 CM3

ETS in China

Sustainable Development： Low-Carbon Eco-Cities

The hope and advantage for late developing cities

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM

10 Le

vel (u

g/m

3)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u

01

23

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s (m

t/ca

pita

)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

co2hat1_u 2000s

1990s

2000s

1990s

2000s

CO2 PM10

China Position in UNFCCC Negotiation

China Role Is Critical