Forward-thinking exercise ANSES 2020 · Jean-Claude Desenclos Bernard Toma . 3 . 4 Contents .
CHINA AND SYSTEMS THINKING EXERCISE.
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CHINA AND SYSTEMS THINKING EXERCISE
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Transcript of CHINA AND SYSTEMS THINKING EXERCISE.
CHINA AND SYSTEMS THINKING EXERCISE
OVERSHOOT CAUSES & SYMPTOMSCAUSES: SYMPTOMS:
• ACCELERATING CHANGE
-Exponential Population Growth
-Exponential Industrial Growth
• CAPACITY LIMITS
-Extraction Limits
-Absorptive Limits
-Erosion Loops/Thresholds
• FEEDBACK DELAYS
-Distorted, Noisy, Denied,
Ignored, Imperfect Signals
-Policy Delay/Confusion
•RESOURCE DEPLETION•RISING WASTE/POLLUTION•RISING EXTRACTION COSTS•LOSS OF NATURAL SERVICES•LOWER QUALITY RESOURCES•NATURAL DISASTERS•CRUMBLING INFRASTRUCTURE•NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT•HOSTILE AREA RESOURCES•MILITARIZED ACQUISITION•INCREASING DEBT RELIANCE•ERODING GOALS FOR HEALTH•SUBSIDIES FOR EXTRACTION•SUBSIDIES TO RESOURCE USE•“DESIRED” TO “AFFORDABLE”•ELITE RESOURCE CAPTURE
Meadows, Randers &Meadows, Limits to Growth, 2004
TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY: HOW?
One possibility Another possibility
1900 2100 1900 2100
Globalcarrying capacity
Humanecologicalfootprint
Humanecologicalfootprint
Globalcarrying capacity
TWO TYPES OF LOOPS
• REINFORCING• POSITIVE• DEVIATION-
AMPLIFYING• SELF-CHANGING• MORPHOGENETIC• EVEN NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
• BALANCING• NEGATIVE• DEVIATION-
COUNTERACTING• SELF-REGULATING• HOMEOSTATIC• ODD NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
REINFORCING (POSITIVE) FEEDBACK
BIRTHS PER
YEARPOPULATION
S
S
(R)
BALANCING (NEGATIVE) FEEDBACK
OPENING OFWARM WATER
FAUCET
SHOWERTEMPERATURE
S
S
(B)
DESIREDSHOWER
TEMPERATURE
O
The Future of China
China’s environmental problems are among the most severe of any major country, and are getting worse. The long list ranges from air pollution, biodiversity losses, croplandlosses, desertification, disappearing wetlands, grasslanddegradation, and increasing scale and frequency of human-induced natural disasters, to invasive species, overgrazing, river flow cessation, salinization, soil erosion, trash accumula-tion, and water pollution and shortages. These…problems arecausing enormous economic losses, social conflicts, and healthproblems within China…China’s large population, economy, andarea also guarantee that its environmental problems will notremain a domestic issue but will spill over to the rest of the world,which is increasingly affected through sharing the same planet, oceans, and atmosphere with China, and which in turn affectsChina’s environment through globalization.”
Jared Diamond, Collapse, 2005, p. 358
POVERTY
TRANSPORT
URBAN-IZATION
ENERGY/CO2
HEALTH
WATERFOOD
LAND
ECONOMY
POPULATION
1bn
%
Home %
imports
CHINA’SFUTURE
The Simulation
(optimizing)
HUMANWELFARE
(broadly defined)
(maintaining)
LIFE SUPPORTSYSTEMS
(integrity/resilience)
(ensuring)
SOCIALEQUITY
(intra- & inter-generational)
THE BIG ANSWER
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
What should China do over the next 10 years by spending$1,000,000,000,000 to avoid overshoot and become ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable by 2040? Prime Minister to deliver a “National Sustainability Plan” address to the world in one hour. The plan to become a sustainable nation should be based on the very best “systems thinking” possible pinpointing interventions that have the greatest potential for synergistically achieving sustainability. Good Luck!
The Analysis…if we had the time
ECONOMIC GROWTH x
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT x
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE x
WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE x
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND x
AUTO/ROAD BOOM x
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION x
HYPER-URBANIZATION x
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION x
URBAN-RURAL INEQUITY x
POPULATION GROWTH x
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY x
SOCIAL DISCONTENT x
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS x
WATER DEFICITS x
AIR POLLUTION x
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION x
WATER POLLUTION x
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH x
CROPLAND LOSSES x
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES x
TOTAL CONSEQUENCES
TOTAL CAUSES
TOTAL CONNECTIONS
ASVARIABLESBELOWRISE:
EC
ON
OM
IC G
RO
WT
H
UN
/UN
DE
R E
MP
LO
YM
EN
T
CO
AL
/CA
RB
ON
DE
PE
ND
EN
CE
WE
ST
ER
N L
IFE
ST
YL
E D
ES
IRE
EN
ER
GY
/PO
WE
R D
EM
AN
D
AU
TO
/RO
AD
BO
OM
EN
DE
MIC
CO
RR
UP
TIO
N
HY
PE
R-U
RB
AN
IZA
TIO
N
RU
RA
L-U
RB
AM
MIG
RA
TIO
N
UR
BA
N-R
UR
AL
INE
QU
AL
ITY
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N G
RO
WT
H
RU
RA
L/U
RB
AN
PO
VE
RT
Y
SO
CIA
L D
ISC
ON
TE
NT
DE
MO
CR
AC
Y D
EM
AN
DS
WA
TE
R D
EF
ICIT
S
AIR
PO
LL
UT
ION
LA
ND
/SO
IL DE
GR
AD
AT
ION
WA
TE
R P
OL
LU
TIO
N
PU
BL
IC IL
L-H
EA
LT
H
CR
OP
LA
ND
LO
SS
ES
GR
AIN
HA
RV
ES
T D
EC
LINE
S
TO
TA
L CA
US
ES
VARIABLESTO THE RIGHT WILL TEND TO:
ECONOMIC GROWTH x - + +
+ + + + - - - - + =+ + -+ -+ + + 18
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT x - - + + + + + + + + 10
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE x + + + + + + + 7
WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE + x + + + + + + + + 9
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND + x + + + + + + 7
AUTO/ROAD BOOM + + + x + + + + + + + + + 12
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION - + + x + + + + + + + + + + 13
HYPER-URBANIZATION + - +
+
+ + x + + + + + + + + + + 16
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION -+ + + x + - -+ + -+ + + 10
URBAN-RURAL INEQUALITY + + x + + + + 6
POPULATION GROWTH + + + + + + + x + + + + + + 13
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY - + + + + x + + + + + + 11
SOCIAL DISCONTENT - + - + - - x + - 8
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS - + - - - + x 6
WATER DEFICITS - + - - + + + x + + + + 11
AIR POLLUTION - - - - + + + x + + + + + 12
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION - + + + + + + + x + + + + 12
WATER POLLUTION - - - + + + + + + + x + + + 13
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH - + + + + + + + x 8
CROPLAND LOSSES - + - + + + x + 7
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES - + + + + + x 6
TOTAL CONSEQUENCES15 11 6 2 8 6 6 10 14 12 7 15 18 10 11 7 10 9 17 12 9 215
TOTAL CAUSES18 10 7
9 7 12 13 16 10 6 13 11 8 6 11 12 12 13 8 7 6 215
TOTAL CONNECTIONS 33 21 13 11 15 18 19 26 24 18 20 26 26 16 22 19 22 22 26 19 13
ASVARIABLESBELOWRISE:
EC
ON
OM
IC G
RO
WT
H
UN
/UN
DE
R E
MP
LO
YM
EN
T
CO
AL
/CA
RB
ON
DE
PE
ND
EN
CE
WE
ST
ER
N L
IFE
ST
YL
E D
ES
IRE
EN
ER
GY
/PO
WE
R D
EM
AN
D
AU
TO
/RO
AD
BO
OM
EN
DE
MIC
CO
RR
UP
TIO
N
HY
PE
R-U
RB
AN
IZA
TIO
N
RU
RA
L-U
RB
AM
MIG
RA
TIO
N
UR
BA
N-R
UR
AL
INE
QU
AL
ITY
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N G
RO
WT
H
RU
RA
L/U
RB
AN
PO
VE
RT
Y
SO
CIA
L D
ISC
ON
TE
NT
DE
MO
CR
AC
Y D
EM
AN
DS
WA
TE
R D
EF
ICIT
S
AIR
PO
LL
UT
ION
LA
ND
/SO
IL DE
GR
AD
AT
ION
WA
TE
R P
OL
LU
TIO
N
PU
BL
IC IL
L-H
EA
LT
H
CR
OP
LA
ND
LO
SS
ES
GR
AIN
HA
RV
ES
T D
EC
LINE
S
TO
TA
L CA
US
ES
VARIABLESTO THE RIGHT WILL TEND TO:
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
PRIMARYCAUSES
18
13
16
13
13
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
PRIMARYCONSE-QUENCES 15
14
15
18
17
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
MOSTCONNECTED
33
26
26
26
26
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
CAUSE-EFFECTRATIOS
C
CC
C
C
C
C
E
E
E
EE
E
E
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
-
++
++
-
ADDICTEDTO GROWTH
R
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
SUCCESS TOTHE SUCCESSFUL(URBANIZED)
SUCCESSFUL
UNSUCCESSFUL
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
PHYSICALGROWTH
ENVTALSCARCITY
SOCIALSTRESS
+
-
B
+
-
B -+
R/B
LIMITS TOGROWTH
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBANMIGRATION
URBAN-RURALINEQUALITY
RURAL& URBANPOVERTY
SOCIALDISCONTENT
POPULATIONGROWTH
DEMOCRACYDEMANDS
SOCIAL
WATERDEFICITS
ENVIRONMENTAL
AIRPOLLUTION
LAND/SOILDEGRADATION
PUBLICILL-HEALTH
WATERPOLLUTION
CROPLANDLOSSES
GRAINHARVESTDECLINES
ECONOMIC
EXPONENTIALECONOMICGROWTH
WESTERNLIFE-STYLEDESIRE
ENDEMICCORRUPTION
COAL/CARBONDEPENDENCE
UN/UNDEREMPLOYMENT
ENERGY/POWERDEMAND
AUTO/ROADBOOM
DEC
OU
PLE
LEA
PFR
OG
EQ
UA
LIZE
RU
RA
LIZE
SOCIALIZE ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENTALIZE SOCIAL
SLOW,SHRINK
PROTECT,RESTOREBUILD HUMAN- SOCIAL CAPITAL
SIGNALS
EASING BACK FROM OVERSHOOT:NEW INFORMATION, RULES & GOALS
•EXTEND THE PLANNING HORIZON
•IMPROVE THE SIGNALS
•SPEED UP RESPONSE TIME
•MINIMIZE NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE USE
•HALT EROSION OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES
•SATISFY NONMATERIAL NEEDS NONMATERIALLY
•MAXIMUM RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY
•SLOW/STOP EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Brief Focus on ChinaBrief Focus on China
Eclipsed US in consumption of most basic resources (grain, meat, coal, steel) Meat 67m tons (vs US 39 m)
Steel 258m tons (vs US 104m)
What if China reaches US per capita consumption? Expanding at 8% pa – it will reach US levels in 2031
Projected 1.45 billion people would consume: 2/3 of world’s grain harvest
Paper consumption would double world’s current production
Would require 99 million barrels of oil per day (current prod 84m b/day)
If China had 3 cars for 4 people (as in the US) its fleet would total 1.1 billion vehicles – current world fleet is 800 million
India’s population by 2031 will be larger than China’s…
