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China Acrylic Fiber Industry during 12th Five-Year Plan Period – … · 2012-03-14 · nylon...
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China Acrylic Fiber Industry during 12th Five-Year Plan Period –
Expanding or Shrinking?
Zheng Junlin
Secretary General
China Chemical Fiber Association
9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
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China Acrylic Fiber Industry during 12th Five-Year Plan Period
—— Expanding or Shrinking?
ZhengZheng JunlinJunlin
China Chemical Fiber AssociationChina Chemical Fiber Association
8 Mar 2012 Shanghai, China8 Mar 2012 Shanghai, China
Outline:
• Targets for China acrylic fiber industry in the 12th
Five-Year Plan period
• Status quo and development of China AF industry
• Key factors for development of China AF industry
• Future developing direction for China AF industry
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Targets for China acrylic fiber industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan period
China aims to become a world acrylic fiber production base with global competitiveness.
Targets:�Total capacity of 1.2 million t/a, with capacity ut ilization ratio higher than 95% and average capacity of producers o ver 70kt/a.
� Consumption proportion — apparel: decoration: indust rial = 60:30:10。。。。
� Unit processing cost below 3,500 yuan
� Average labor productivity per capita above 1.08 mil lion yuan
� Higher quality, more environment-friendly; ISO18001, ISO19001 and ISO14001 certificated
Acrylic Fiber Capacity in China during 2002-2012
• In 2011, total capacity of acrylic fiber in China is 915 kt/a. With the three long-idled units (combined capacity of 135 kt/yr) excluded, the total capacity is actually 780 kt/a.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012 2017
Capacity
Demand
Kt
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Status quo — Output and Consumption in China
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Acrylic Fiber Production 2002-2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World China
Status quo — Production in China and the World
kt
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Development ———— Lower Import, Higher Output and Self-supply
Output & Import 2000-2010 Self-supply rate 1999-2011
70.2570.2570.2570.2574.0474.0474.0474.04 78.378.378.378.377777777
79.579.579.579.581.7281.7281.7281.72
59.1659.1659.1659.1660.8360.8360.8360.83
57.9257.9257.9257.9258.4158.4158.4158.41
58.1858.1858.1858.18
57.4457.4457.4457.44
61.7961.7961.7961.79
50505050
60606060
70707070
80808080
90909090
1999
1999
1999
1999
2001
2001
2001
2001
2003
2003
2003
2003
2005
2005
2005
2005
2007
2007
2007
2007
2009
2009
2009
2009
2011
2011
2011
2011
Self-supplySelf-supplySelf-supplySelf-supply
%
Development — Consumption and Demand
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In 2010, the proportion of AF consumption in textile & apparel, decoration and industrial
fields is 70%:27%:3%. Hereinto, the proportion of textile & apparel increases by 3 points,
that of decoration up by 7 points, while that of industry falls by 10 points, to 3%.
Acrylic Fiber Consumption
Structure in 2010
70%
27%
3%
Textile and ApparelDecorationIndustry and others
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in China 2005-2 010
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in 2005
67%
20%
13%
Textile and apparelDecorationIndustry and others
Development — Consumption Structure
China
70%
27%
3%
Textile and apparel
Decoration
Industry
World
61%
12%
27%
Textile and apparel
Decoration
Industry
China (2009) World (2009)
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-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010
Cotton PSF AF VSF Wool 线性 (AF)
Global Growth of Staple Fibers 1990-2010
Source: Oerlikon
Development — Global
linear
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Source: Oerlikon
Development — Global
Global Synthetic Fiber Output Proportion by Variety 1990-2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PET Nylon Acrylic Others
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1995 2000 2005 2010
China West EuropeJapan Others
Development — Global
Proportion of acrylic fiber output of major origins 1995-2010
Source: Oerlikon
Key Factors for Development of China AF Industry
� Smaller market share. To seek more applications?� Feedstock — short supply and high prices� Technology progress — equipments, R&D, applications� Industry integration — Mergers and acquisitions
— Wash-out— Intra-industry cooperation
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� Downstream demand — to explore for more fields of application and wider market share
� To be more self-dependent in ACN supply� To accelerate technology progress — equipments,
R&D, applications� Measures for industry integration
— Mergers and acquisitions— Wash-out— Intra-industry Cooperation
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Key Factors for Development of China AF Industry
Characters and Applications of Acrylic Fibers� Main characters:
� Resilience: 2 times higher than nylon fibers, only just below PET fibers. Fluffy, curly and soft, with a resilience rate of 65% even after extended by 20%.
� Tenacity: 22.1~48.5cN/dtex, 1-2.5 times higher than wool, while lower than PET and nylon fibers.
� Heat-resistance: Softening point at 190~230℃, ranked just below PSE fibers.� Light-resistance: Losing just 20% tenacity after 1 year under direct sunshine, the best in
all synthetic fibers.
� Widely applied in apparel, decoration and industri al fields. 100 acrylic yarn or blended yarns with natural fibers.
� Acrylic fiber — resistant to acid, oxidant and many organic solvents, unresisting to alkali� Acrylic fiber end products — Fluffy, soft touch, warm-keeping, good weather resistance,
mould-and-moth-proof� Warm-keeping — 15% higher than wool, could be blended with wool, mainly used to
produce textiles including hand-knitting yarn, blanket, knitted spots suits, tarpaulin, curtain,artificial fur, plush, etc.
� Acrylic fiber is the feedstock for high-performance carbon fiber
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Differentiated Acrylic Fiber
• The differentiated acrylic fiber is defined as a chemically or
physically modified acrylic fiber, an innovation to regular acrylic
fibers, or providing acrylic fiber with some special characters.
• Types of such fibers: High-shrinkage, compound, cross-section-
profiled, antistatic, UV-cut, far-infrared, antibacterial, flame-
retardant, fragrant, negative ion, anti-pilling, etc. 。
• Begin to take shape
• Just make some achievements in technology
• Primarily meet the requirement for economy and society development
General Evaluation
Projects of carbon fiber, aramid fiber, UHMWPE fiber and PPS fiber
have successfully realized commercial production, and many other high-
tech-fiber projects are in smooth progress, with notable achievements in
production process, equipments, products’ application and standardization.
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Engineering of R&D achievements
Pilot application• Comonomer production process for PAN precursor• Fast pre-oxidation process • Engineering solutions for PAN-based carbon fiberand aramid fiber• Start commercial production
Initial Stage((((1950-1975))))
Diversified production tech, matured recycling tech
Lower costs,Matured material production tech
More varieties and advanced molding technologies
Improving performance and quality
Reason
Wider application in industry fields• Wide application of carbon fiber and aramid fiber in new industries such as energy and automobile • Large aircraft project• Wind power generation and marine crude oil exploration• Automobile
Recent Development((((2005-2015))))
Industrial applications• Carbon fibers used as primary structural materials of B777and A380• Aramid fibers widely used in industries• Carbon fibers started industrial application
Wide Application
((((1995-2005))))
Wider applications• Carbon fibers widely applied in rackets and golf club• Carbon fibers used as primary structural materials ofAirbus A330• Aramid fibers used in military bulletproof helmet
Expansion((((1985-1995))))
Trial application• Carbon fibers used in fishing rod and golf club• Carbon fibers used as secondary structural materials of Boeing 757 and 767• Aramid fibers used in police bulletproof vest for the first time
Promotion((((1975-1985))))
History
Stage
Application Progress of Carbon Fiber and Aramid Fibe r
Development
NDRC started high-tech and high-performance compound fiber project in 2008NDRC continuously supported new-type and special fiber projects, allocating RMB 230 million for 9 projects in 2007, 164 million for 12 projects in 2008, and more projects in evaluation
2007-2009
Primarily achieving stable pilot production of homemade CCF-1(T300), setting a mile stone for industrialization and wider applications.NDRC had supported Weihai Tuozhan Fiber’s 1,000-t/a CCF-1 project and Anhui HuawanCarbon Fiber’s 500-t/a project.
2005-2006
RMB 30 million for basic research for Project 9732005
MOST allocated RMB 100 million in Project 863 for R&D of carbon fiber MOST started basic research for Project 973RMB 6 million for key theoretical researches
2002
Jilin Petrochemical and JLICT cooperated in R&D of high-performance DMSO PAN precursor1996-2000
Introducing tow pre-oxidization line and carbonizing equipments but not carbonizing processMid 80,s
Starting R&D for HT T300 Type-11981-1985
The pilot line transferred to Liaoyuan Special Fiber Plant; starting R&D for T300Late 70’s
ICC built the first pilot carbon fiber production line (with tech level close to Japan’s T200)1976
Starting R&D of carbon fibersLater 60’s
History and InvestmentsPeriod
Development Progress of Carbon Fiber in China
Progress of Carbon Fiber
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Development of Carbon Fiber
Aircraft, automobile, shipEnergy (wind power generation, uranium enrichment, marine oil exploration)Machinery, compound material products
Wider
Rackets, gulf club, primary structural material of aircraftMachinery, pressure vessel, ship, reinforcementExpanded
Satellite, fishing rod, secondary structural material of aircraftNarrow
FieldsScope
Japan and the US are Dominating Global Carbon Fiber Market
Toray (Japan),20.1%
Formosa (Taiwan),7.9%
Mainland China,6.8%
Zoltek(the US),
21.3%
MRC (Japan), 7.9%
CYTEC (the US), 2.0%
HEXCEL (the US), 7.4%
AKSA (Turkey), 1.6%
Toray (Japan), 0.3%SGL, 3.2%
Toho (Japan), 2.4%
Aldila (the US), 4.3%
TOHO (Japan),14.8%
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Thank You!
2012-3-3 23CCFA