CHFP Objectives
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Transcript of CHFP Objectives
• Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models and data for initialization• Provide experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another• Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction •Provide framework for assessing current and planned observing systems• Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model improvements
CHFP Objectives
Maximum predictability not yet achieved
International, multi-model experiment incorporating all elements of the climate system
Seasonal Prediction1st WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop
Kirtman and Pirani (2009)
Experiment Protocol• Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all
the Components of Climate System– Role for each of core WCRP projects
– Key: No future information after initialization
• Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully
Interactive Predictions of the Climate System– Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-
– Some Groups Extend to Decadal (JSC crosscut)
• Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …)
• International Multi-Institution Participation
• Diagnostic sub-projects – will involve extensive interactions among WCRP project panels
Participating Groups1. EU ENSEMBLES 2. APCC3. NOAA-NCEP4. NOAA-GFDL 5. NASA-GMAO 6. COLA-UMiami-NCAR 7. BMRC 8. JMA 9. CCCma 10. CPTEC11. IRI
Several groups “done” with baseline.Data needs to be transferred to servers!!!
Status
at CIMA, APCC ENSEMBLES(All will be linked from CHFP website)
Links across WCRPSignificant role for land-atmospherecoupling in seasonal predictability
GLACE-2Goal of determining prediction skill associated withaccurate initialization of land surface states
• Coordinated set of experiments involving 12 models• Twin experiments using realistic/unrealistic land initialization• Difference indicates skill due to land-atmosphere coupling• Complements CHFP protocol (no future information included)• Data available from NASA GSFC
Links across WCRP
Stratosphere resolving HFP Goal of quantifying skill gained initializing andresolving stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems
• Parallel hindcasts from stratosphere resolving and non-resolving models• Action from WGSIP-12: Endorse as subproject of CHFP• SPARC to recommend diagnostics
Additional predictability likelyassociated with stratospheric dynamics
Links across WCRP
Several areas of potential collaboration:
• CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere • Sea ice prediction and initialization• Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring temperature anomalies
Proposal: WGSIP-CliC Experimental Protocol TeamWGSIP: Doblas-Reyes, DeWitt???CliC:??
Explore seasonal predictability associated with snow and sea ice
Several areas of potential collaboration:
• CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere • Sea ice prediction and initialization• Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring temperature anomalies (with GEWEX: proposal being developed)
Explore seasonal predictability associated with snow and sea ice
Potential for coordinated, ISO hindcast experiments
Links across WMO
Decadal PredictionsCMIP5 Protocol
• CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP group to oversee this framework• WGSIP is active participant in upcoming CLIVAR AIP workshop on ocean initialization for decadal predictions
ApplicationsWorking Directly with Users
Objective: – Increase visibility of CHFP to Latin American scientists– Increase regional capacity through training on the use of
CHFP data for applications
CHFP Workshop (WGSIP/CIMA)
• August 2010 – University of Buenos Aires• 2 weeks of lectures (a.m.) & computing laboratory (p.m.)• 50-70 participants:
– Students or young scientists from all the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean
• Interest from IRI and CPTEC -- will likely participate in the content design and lecture work
CHFP 3. Issue recommendations for CHFP participants on how to upload new
versions of data or replace/disable old versions. 4. Each CHFP contributing group should provide a contact person to the data
servers for technical issues. 5. Determine whether there will be a common registration approach for
accessing CHFP data to acquire information on the use and dissemination of the CHFP data. Need to give guidelines on the CHFP website on how to acknowledge the data origin. Circulate a draft data policy to WGSIP for endorsement.
6. Circulate proposal for course on the CHFP, seasonal prediction and applications that is being organized by CIMA in Buenos Aires in March 2010 for endorsement by WGSIP (C. Vera).
7. Confirm whether groups contributing CHFP data to the APCC server can send a wider list of variables including metadata than those outlined in the APCC proposal (W.-J. Lee).
8. Develop interactions with CLIVAR regional panels to develop CHFP diagnostic sub projects.
• Develop a clearing-house of applications-relevant tools, scripts, etc. for evaluating CHFP datasets (A. Pirani, A. Morse).
These Actions Need to Be Revised?