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Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe Dr Ian Fairlie Consultant on...
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Transcript of Chernobyl: radioactive fallout and health consequences in Europe Dr Ian Fairlie Consultant on...
Chernobyl: radioactive fallChernobyl: radioactive fallout and health out and health
consequences in Europeconsequences in Europe Dr Ian FairlieDr Ian Fairlie
Consultant on Radiation in the Consultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentEnvironment
LondonLondonUnited KingdomUnited Kingdom
The Other Report on CHernobyl The Other Report on CHernobyl (TORCH) (TORCH)
independent of governments, independent of governments, agencies and industryagencies and industry
funded by Greens/EFA of funded by Greens/EFA of European Parliament; European Parliament; Altner-Altner-Crombacher Foundation; Crombacher Foundation; Hatzfeld FoundationHatzfeld Foundation
peer-reviewedpeer-reviewed www.chernobylreport.orgwww.chernobylreport.org
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
1.1. IntroductionIntroduction
2.2. How much radioactivity discharged How much radioactivity discharged
3.3. Where did the cloud goWhere did the cloud go
4.4. Health effects Health effects
5.5. Collective dosesCollective doses
6.6. Predicted excess cancer deathsPredicted excess cancer deaths
7.7. ConclusionsConclusions
Introduction - official quotesIntroduction - official quotes
“…“…foremost nuclear catastrophe in foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history” IAEA (1996) human history” IAEA (1996)
“… “… by far, the worst industrial by far, the worst industrial disaster on record” IAEA/WHO disaster on record” IAEA/WHO (2005a) (2005a)
Chernobyl radioactivity 200 times Chernobyl radioactivity 200 times that from Hiroshima and Nagasaki - that from Hiroshima and Nagasaki - WHO/IPHECA (1995) WHO/IPHECA (1995)
DispersalDispersalsource: source: ARAC, Lawrence Livermore Research Laboratory, California, US (reproduced from OECD (2002)ARAC, Lawrence Livermore Research Laboratory, California, US (reproduced from OECD (2002)
Main Radionuclides PBq=10PBq=101515 Bq Bq
Nuclide Nuclide Half-lifeHalf-life Core Inventory Core Inventory April 26 1986April 26 1986
Estimated % Estimated % ReleasedReleased
Te-129mTe-129m 33.6 days33.6 days 1,040 PBq1,040 PBq ~23%~23%
Te-132Te-132 3.26 days3.26 days 4,2004,200 ~27%~27%
I-131I-131 8.04 days8.04 days 3,1803,180 ~56%~56%
I-133I-133 0.9 days0.9 days 6,7006,700 37%37%
Cs-134Cs-134 2.06 years2.06 years 150150 ~36%~36%
Cs-137Cs-137 30.0 years30.0 years 260 260 ~33%~33%
Sr-90Sr-90 29.1 years29.1 years 220220 ~5%~5%
Ru-106Ru-106 1.01 years1.01 years 850850 >9%>9%Source: UNSCEAR 2000
Main RadionuclidesMain Radionuclides
Cs-137 remains worldwide Cs-137 remains worldwide Sr-90 remains <100 kmSr-90 remains <100 km I-131 important for ~3 months I-131 important for ~3 months
after the explosionsafter the explosions long-lived alpha-emitters <100 long-lived alpha-emitters <100
kmkm
Cs-137 Contamination - Cs-137 Contamination - AreaArea% of surface area % of surface area
4 - 40 kBq/m4 - 40 kBq/m22 Cs-137 Cs-137
SwitzerlandSwitzerland 85%85%
AustriaAustria 83 %83 %
CzechoSlovakiaCzechoSlovakia 78 %78 %
IrelandIreland 68 %68 %
GreeceGreece 51 %51 %
NorwayNorway 49 %49 %
GermanyGermany 44 %44 %
FinlandFinland 41 % 41 %
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 34 %34 %
PolandPoland 27 % 27 %
SwedenSweden 26 % 26 %
Contamination (Cs-137) Contamination (Cs-137) PBq APBq Amountsmounts
sources: sources: EC Atlas (1998) * USDoE (1987)EC Atlas (1998) * USDoE (1987)
Russia (European)Russia (European) 2929 RumaniaRumania 2.12.1
BelarusBelarus 1515 GermanyGermany 1.91.9
UkraineUkraine 1313 AustriaAustria 1.81.8
YugoslaviaYugoslavia 5.4*5.4* PolandPoland 1.21.2
FinlandFinland 3.83.8 GreeceGreece 0.950.95
Sweden Sweden 3.53.5 ItalyItaly 0.930.93
BulgariaBulgaria 2.7*2.7* FranceFrance 0.930.93
NorwayNorway 2.52.5 UKUK 0.880.88
% of total emitted Cs-137 in % of total emitted Cs-137 in Belarus, Ukraine and RussiaBelarus, Ukraine and Russia
US DoE 1988US DoE 1988 ~33 %~33 %
UNSCEAR 1988 UNSCEAR 1988 44 %44 %
UNSCEAR 2000UNSCEAR 2000 47 %47 %
Residual radionuclides – PBqResidual radionuclides – PBq
Nuclide Half-life -years
1986 2006* 2056
Sr-90 28.8 8 4.9 1.5
Cs-137 30.1 85 54 17
Pu-239 24,400 0.03 0.03 0.03
sources: Dreicer et al, 1996 *Torch, 2006
Restrictions Still in PlaceRestrictions Still in Place
UK:UK: 370 farms (>750 km370 farms (>750 km22) and ) and 200,000 sheep200,000 sheep
Sweden, Finland:Sweden, Finland: stock animals, reindeerstock animals, reindeer parts of parts of Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden,
Finland, Lithuania, Poland:Finland, Lithuania, Poland: wild boar,deer, wild boar,deer, wild mushrooms, berries, carnivore fishwild mushrooms, berries, carnivore fish
Germany:Germany: Cs-137 in wild boar averages 7 Cs-137 in wild boar averages 7 kBq/kg >10 x EU limit of 0.6 kBq/kg kBq/kg >10 x EU limit of 0.6 kBq/kg
EC Commission (2005)EC Commission (2005)Andris Piebalgs, European Energy Commissioner, written answer to Question Andris Piebalgs, European Energy Commissioner, written answer to Question
P-1234/05DE by MEP Rebecca Harms - April 4, 2005P-1234/05DE by MEP Rebecca Harms - April 4, 2005
“…“…it is not possible to conclude it is not possible to conclude that there will be any further that there will be any further substantial decrease over the substantial decrease over the next decades, except due to next decades, except due to the radioactive decay of Cs-the radioactive decay of Cs-137 and Sr-90 ...”137 and Sr-90 ...”
Cs-137 Air Activity/Body BurdenCs-137 Air Activity/Body BurdenBelgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN) MolBelgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN) Mol
http://www.sckcen.be/sckcen_en/publications/brochures/tsjernobyl/20jaar/tsjernobyl20_EN.pdfhttp://www.sckcen.be/sckcen_en/publications/brochures/tsjernobyl/20jaar/tsjernobyl20_EN.pdf
4.2 4.2 Health EffectsHealth Effects
• thyroid cancerthyroid cancer• leukaemialeukaemia• solid cancerssolid cancers• non-cancer effectsnon-cancer effects• heritable effectsheritable effects• mental health + psychosocial effectsmental health + psychosocial effects
4.34.3Thyroid Cancer IncidenceThyroid Cancer Incidenceper 100,000 children and adolescentsper 100,000 children and adolescents
source: Jacob source: Jacob et alet al (2005) (2005)
Thyroid Cancer Incidence Thyroid Cancer Incidence (2)(2)
Incidence per 100 000 in Belarus
0.3
6.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Cas
es p
er 1
00 0
00
Children (0 -14)
Adolescents (15 - 18)Adults (19 - 34)
Adolescents
Children
Young adults
How many more excess How many more excess thyroid cancers?thyroid cancers?
Cardis E, Amoros E and Kesminiene A (1999)Cardis E, Amoros E and Kesminiene A (1999)
Cardis et al (1999) estimateCardis et al (1999) estimate
18,000 - 66,000 in Belarus 18,000 - 66,000 in Belarus alonealone
18,000 assumes 40 years18,000 assumes 40 years 66,000 assumes whole life66,000 assumes whole life
Cancer Incidence in controls
Incidence in liquidators
Increased risk
All sites 373.3 449.3 20%*
Bladder 10.9 17.0 55%*
Colon 17.0 22.3 31%*
Lung 52.4 67.3 28%*
Kidney 14.8 17.9 21%
Stomach 41.7 44.9 8%
Breast ♀ 58.6 61.3 5%
Rectum 19.0 18.4 -3%
Increase in cancer incidence (per 100,000 population)
in Belarus liquidators 1997-2000, compared with control adults in least contaminated area (20-85 )
source: Okeanov et al (2004) *statistically significant differences
Non-cancer diseases Non-cancer diseases (in Japanese bomb survivors) (in Japanese bomb survivors)
source: Preston source: Preston et alet al, 2003, 2003all statistically significant all statistically significant
DISEASEDISEASE Increased risk %Increased risk %
respiratoryrespiratory 18%18%
heartheart 17%17%
digestivedigestive 15%15%
strokestroke 12%12%
Collective Doses in W Europe Collective Doses in W Europe person Sv person Sv
fromfrom OECD/NEA (1996) first year x 3.3)
Italy 92,000
West Germany 60,000
Austria 16,600
Greece 12,000
Finland 8,300
UK 7,000
Sweden 5,600
Switzerland 4,600
France 4,300
Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in Deaths from Chernobyl in
B.U.R.B.U.R.Population Number Average
dose SvCancer type Predicted excess
cancer deaths
Liquidators (1986-87)
200,000 0.1 solid cancers 2,000
leukaemias 200
Evacuees from 30 km zone
135,000 0.01 solid cancers 150
leukaemias 10
Residents of SCZs 270,000 0.05 solid cancers 1,500
leukaemias 100
Residents of low contamin areas
6,800,000 0.007 solid cancers 4,600
leukaemias 370
TOTAL 9,000
from lifetime exposure of 95 years
source: table 16.4 in IAEA/WHO (2005a) except total
Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl in Deaths from Chernobyl in
B.U.R.B.U.R.
IAEA Press Release (2005) 4,000
full IAEA Report (2005)ie from Cardis et al (1996)
9,000
Predicted Excess Cancer Predicted Excess Cancer Deaths from Chernobyl – worldDeaths from Chernobyl – world
US DoE,1988 28,000
UNSCEAR, 1988 30,000
TORCH, 2006 30,000 - 60,000
ConclusionsConclusions
50% Chernobyl fallout in W Europe50% Chernobyl fallout in W Europe 40% of Europe land area contaminated 40% of Europe land area contaminated 30,000-60,000 cancer deaths30,000-60,000 cancer deaths 18,000-66,000 thyroid cancers in 18,000-66,000 thyroid cancers in
BelarusBelarus other solid cancers now appearingother solid cancers now appearing residual Cs-137 levels in forest foods, residual Cs-137 levels in forest foods,
sheep, reindeer in W Europesheep, reindeer in W Europe Cs-137 contamination will remain for Cs-137 contamination will remain for
hundreds of yearshundreds of years
Questions about more nuclear Questions about more nuclear power power
prudent to say no more accidents? prudent to say no more accidents? a Sustainable Development?a Sustainable Development? consistent with the Precautionary consistent with the Precautionary
Principle?Principle? ethical to pass radioactive wastes to ethical to pass radioactive wastes to
future generations?future generations? ethical to increase weapons ethical to increase weapons
proliferation?proliferation?