Chelsea Weiskerger Richard Whitman Mantha Phanikumar · Europe Lake Bluff Lake Forest Long Beach...
Transcript of Chelsea Weiskerger Richard Whitman Mantha Phanikumar · Europe Lake Bluff Lake Forest Long Beach...
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Quagga Mussel-Induced Water Clarity May Contribute to Long-term E. coli Decreases in Lake Michigan
Chelsea Weiskerger Richard Whitman Mantha Phanikumar
Photo Credit: Pinterest.com user Starzyia
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Locations, Mean Values, and Data
Monitoring Data 2000-2014 2 sub-periods for robust
comparison: pre- and post-2007
64 (90) Beaches 4 (5) States 72,588 (94,674)
records
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a priori Analytical Criteria
1. Sampling before AND after 2007 2. Consistent protocols 3. EPA methods 4. 504 records per beach
• 3 samples per week • > 12 years
5. Lake Michigan, proper only • No rivers, passes, bays, islands
We’re Average!
No, you’re just mean!
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Montrose Newport Ogden Dunes Rosewood
Chicago S. Shore Europe Lake Bluff Lake Forest Long Beach Michiana
P>0.05
Only one beach increased (p<0.05) in Lake Michigan between pre- and post-2007
Shoreland Waukegan Milwaukee S. Shore
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No resuscitation step pre-2007 EPA Method 1603
Claybanks Township East Bay Park Ludington State Park Magoon Creek
Pierport Township SLBE Esch Rd SLBE Peterson Summit Township
P>0.05
All State of Michigan beaches but Sleeping Bear Dunes** decreased (<0.05) between sub-periods*
** * a priori criteria relaxed
**
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Higher frequency of high log(E. coli) values pre-2007
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Freq
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Log(E. coli) Value (Log(MPN)/100 ml)
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Bin Ranges (E. coli, log MPN/100 ml):
1 – 0-0.31 2 – 0.31-1.00 3 – 1.00-1.68 4 – 1.68-2.37 5 – 2.37-3.05 6 – 3.05-6
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Strong seasonal trend pre-2007 (R2 =0.747)
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Mussel Invasion (1986-present)
Photo Credit: United States Geological Survey
Image Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Potential Mussel Effects
Lake Productivity Benthification No spring bloom
Filter Feeding Decrease in particulates Increase in water clarity Direct predation of bacteria
Image Source: LakePro, Inc.
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Nearshore water clarity in Lake Michigan increased by 44%
From Binding et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2015, 16, p. 1976-1995
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Solar inactivation of E. coli is log-normal at 90 cm depth water
Data adapted from Whitman et al. 2001. Characterization of E. coli levels at 63rd Street Beach, Report to City of Chicago
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E. coli decreases as water clarity increases
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Model predicts a 4% decrease in E. coli
Coupled hydrodynamic fate and transpo model (FVCOM)
E.Coli
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Nearshore water clarity in Lake Erie decreased by 14.9%
From Binding et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2015, 16, p. 1976-1995
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No western Lake Erie beaches decreased (p<0.05) between sub-periods
P>0.05 Cranberry Creek Fichtel Creek Huntington Old Woman E Old Woman W
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Our hypothesis
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By the Numbers…
Nearshore Water Clarity Change, 2000-2014: Lake Michigan = +44% Lake Erie = -14.3%
E. coli Change: Lake Michigan mean E. coli = -10.2% Lake Michigan median E. coli = -34.0% Lake Erie mean E. coli = +13.9%
Total Percentage of Beach Advisories: Pre-2007 = 19.6% Post-2007 = 11.7%
Changes in Beach Advisories, Pre- and Post-2007
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Implications
Positive impact of invasive mussels? Lake oligotrophication E. coli as an indicator and QMRA Other pathogens
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Alternative Sources and Evidence
Source: Restoration
Management Stormwater/Wastewater
Climate Change Bird Populations
Lake Levels
Direct Mussel Predation
Effect/Evidence: Local Effects
Do NOT account for Lake Erie or lakewide Lake Michigan
Regional Effects Lack of Apparent Relationship
Likely lakewide effect Relative impact unknown
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Acknowledgments
We relied upon several regional experts for data compilation and extensive knowledge of their respective areas, including: Greg Kleinheinz, University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh Julie Kinzelman, Racine Public Health Department, WI Cathy Breitenbach and Carol Kim, Chicago Park District Shannon Briggs, Michigan Department of Environmental Quality Donna Francy, United States Geological Survey, Ohio Water
Science Center Mary Clifton, Ohio Department of Health
Ellen Marsden (University of Vermont), Thomas Nalepa (NOAA), and Donald Schloesser (USGS) provided valuable insight into mussel ecology and impacts
Meredith Nevers, Murulee Byappanahalli, Dawn Shively, and Kasia Przybyla-Kelly (USGS, Lake Michigan Ecological Research Station) gave important guidance and suggestions
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Thank you
I would be happy to continue the conversation…
Chelsea Weiskerger Michigan State University 1449 Engineering Research Court Room A127 East Lansing, MI 48824
Email: [email protected] Phone: (303)748-0430