Charting the course 2016

SUMMARY

In this issue, we “Chart the Course” by looking at key charts regarding the US economy and Investor

Sentiment. We find that the data in many of the following charts currenty implies overall positive economic

outlook for the near term. We hope you enjoy these, and will publish our traditional Macro Musings at the

end of September.

Charting the course: the economy

Economic models confirm. The respected Conference Board Leading Economic Index shows economic

growth at business cycle highs (data from Doug Short).

August 29, 2016

MACRO MUSINGS

Rush Zarrabian, CFA Portfolio Manager

Europe has struggled. Both European stock markets and economy have lagged the United States in the

last five years. The above chart captures the stark difference in production since 2011.

Retail Sales hit an all-time high. Retail Sales often flatten before the onset of a recession. They just

made an all-time high last month (data from The Fat Pitch blog).

Charting the course. INVESTOR SENTIMENT

Confidence improves among the middle class. One of the fascinating developments since the Great

Recession was the difference in consumer confidence between those who make over $50,000 versus

those who make less. The gap is finally closing (data from Bespoke Investment Group).

People are still pulling money out of equity funds. Despite the market rebound, money continues to

flow out of equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. This is not the typical behavior you would

see during market tops.

Charting the course: THE PRESIDENTIAL Election

The market usually ignores the election. Despite the wild presidential contest, the market has

historically shrugged. Most election years end with gains (data from Michael Batnick).

The best market returns have come under Republican presidents. So have the worst. The table

illustrates that you should never predict markets based on which party occupies the White House. The

president simply does not have the influence on the markets and economy that many think they do.

Charting the course. FUN STUFF

Asset class & Sector review. Both Cyclical and defensive areas of the

market are working

The Illusion of Choice. This busy chart shows that fourteen companies own many of the brands you

know and love (from Visualizing Economics)

Inflation varies substantially depending on the product. Many items are much cheaper than they were

20 years ago. However, crucial needs such as education, child care, and healthcare are much costlier.

Though growth has not been rapid, it has remained positive with a supportive backdrop. Focusing on the

US economy as a whole, coloring in context with various data, suggests a low probability of

recessionary pressure in the near term.

The chart(s)/graph(s) shown is(are) for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a suggestion of any

investment recommendation, investment strategy, or as an offer of advice to buy, sell, or exchange any investment product or

investment vehicle. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. While the sources of information, including any

forward-looking statements and estimates, included in this (these) chart(s)/graph(s) was deemed reliable, Corbett Road

Wealth Management, Spire Wealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Spire

Wealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC or its affiliates.

All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or

completeness. MacroCastTM is a proprietary index used by Corbett Road Wealth Management to help assist in the investment

decision-making process. Neither the information provided by MacroCastTM nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a

solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The phrase “the

market” refers to the S&P 500 Total Return Index unless otherwise stated. The phrase “risk assets” refers to equities, REITs,

high yield bonds, and other high volatility securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Spire Wealth Management, LLC is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through an affiliated

company, Spire Securities, LLC, a Registered Broker/Dealer and member FINRA/SIPC