Australian Population Association 2018 conference program

Thank you to our sponsors!

IMPORTANT INFORMATION TO HELP YOU ENJOY THE CONFERENCE

· Talks are strictly of 20 minutes duration followed by 5 minutes of questions to be managed by session chairs

· A 20 minute talk usually means around 10-15 slides

· Underlined names indicate the nominated speaker(s)

· Your presentation must be pre-loaded by providing them to the AV technicians next to the registration desk. This desk will ONLY be staffed from 14:00-17:00 on Tuesday 17 July and from 08:00-09:00 on each day of the conference

· Alternatively you can email your presentation to apa2018@cdu.edu.au for pre-loading. The cutoff for sending presentations is COB 13/7. Pre-loaded presentations cannot be changed

· Session chairs please be on hand prior to the start of your session to assist speakers in making sure presentations are loaded and working

While you are here why not explore the many amazing attractions of Australia’s Top End! See here for some ideas https://northernterritory.com

Useful information

Conference Coordinator – Kaye Gwyther: ph. 0427 389 213

Conference Organiser – Andrew Taylor: ph. 0403 127 958

Darwin Convention Centre – ph. (08) 8923 9000

Taxis – ph. 13 10 08 or 13 82 94

Other transport – As well as taxis, Darwin has limited bus services and the ride share company “Hi Oscar”. It does not have Uber ride share.

Free conference wi-fi

User: DCC_WLAN_FREEWIFI

Password: xirrus0123

CONFERENCE PROGRAM – Current at 0530, 18 July 2018

Tuesday 17th July

14:00-17:00

Registration and speakers presentation receiving desks open

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Wednesday 18th July

09:00-09:35

Conference Welcome and opening (registration desk open 08:00 to 16:00, Speakers presentation receiving desk open 08:00 to 09:00)

Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Welcome - Andrew Taylor

Welcome to Country – Richard Fejo

Welcome from the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, the Honourable Michael Gunner MLA

Official conference opening – Professor Simon Maddocks, Vice Chancellor and President, Charles Darwin University

Housekeeping – Andrew Taylor

09:35-10:20

Plenary 1 – facilitated by Andrew Taylor

Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Modern Romance? Cohabitation and the Remaking of the Family

Professor Sharon Sassler, Cornell University

10:20-10:50

Morning tea

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Wednesday 18th July

10:50-12:30

Concurrent sessions 1

1a: Northern Territory Demography Meeting Room 1

Chair: Anita Maertens

1b: Marriage and Partnering

Meeting Room 2

Chair: Fiona Shalley

1c: Mortality, Fertility and Wellbeing

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Denise Carlton

1d: Topics in Chinese Demography

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Francis Seltzer

The Northern Territory’s 2016 working population – who is in it? And how has it changed in the past ten years?

Tony Barnes

Opportunity, freedom and time - how to sell Darwin as a place to live

Anna Goat

Who stays and who goes from sparsely populated areas? The case of the Northern Territory

James Thurmer

Patterns of Asian intermarriage in Australia

Ann Evans & Edith Gray

Intermarriage in Australia: patterns and changes by ancestry

Qing Guan & Kim Xu

International marriage and domestic marriage differentials in China: gendered patterns and solidarity of the unions

Shenghan Cai & Fei Guo

Estimating mortality for UK ethnic groups – method validation and impact assessment

Pia Wohland & Phil Rees

First generation births in Australia since 1981: which regions have benefitted and by whom?

Bernard Baffour, Ann Evans, Edith Gray & James Raymer

Opportunity cost of childbearing and women’s fertility intention in urban China under the new “two-child” policy

Yuanyuan Duan & Fei Guo

Sexual behaviour typologies in the context of the HIV epidemic: socio-demographic determinants in rural South Africa 2010-2011

Brian Houle, Shao-Tzu Yu, Nicole Angotti, Enid Schatz, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Xavier Gómez-Olivé, Jane Menken & Sanyu Mojola

Demographic dividend and the economic miracle in China

Xin Yuan & Yuan Gao

Study on the family orientation of the floating population and its influence on employment and residence

Wang Jinying & Hao Junkai

Impact of urbanisation on the changing of rural and urban age structure in the future in China

Meng Xiangjing & Jiang Kaidi

The influencing factors of population spatial distribution in northwest China

Ruihua Mi

12:30-13:30

Lunch

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Wednesday 18th July

13:30-15:10

Concurrent sessions 2

2a: Internal Migration

Meeting Room 1

Chair: Angelique Parr

2b: Subnational Population Projections

Meeting Room 2

Chair: Simone Alexander

2c: Immigrant Populations in Australia

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Brian Houle

2d: Mortality, Health and Wellbeing

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Ann Evans

Comparing internal migration in the countries of Asia: patterns and progress

Elin Charles-Edwards, Martin Bell, Aude Bernard & Yu Zhu

Internal migration and education in Indonesia: what is their relationship?

Salut Muhidin

Educational selectivity of internal migration: a global assessment of 68 countries

Aude Bernard & Martin Bell

Using machine learning to forecast population

Kim Johnstone & Peter Chiu

The shelf life of subnational projections, from Australia to England

Ludi Simpson, Tom Wilson & Fiona Shalley

Creating subnational population forecasts for multiple geographies: existing and new approaches

Tom Wilson

Effective ways of communicating population forecast uncertainty

Fiona Shalley & Tom Wilson

Social and economic outcomes of the first generation migrants: a comparison of the four largest Asian ethnic groups in Australia and the United States

Fei Guo & Van Tran

Measuring the spatial integration of the Chinese-born population in Australia, 1981-2016

Qing Guan

African-born people in Australia: what the 2016 Census tells us

Ingrid Tejada & Lev Makaev

Intergenerational occupational mobility of Asia-born immigrants in Australia

Sheruni De Alwis, Nick Parr & Fei Guo

Decomposing the sex-gap in life expectancy: an extended method

Qi Cui, Heather Booth & Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Risky health behaviour of young people in Greater Jakarta: smoking, alcohol, and drug use

Iwu Dwisetyani Utomo, Peter McDonald, Vu Son, Terence Hull & Ariance Utomo

Is disability in the oldest-old compressed or not? A comparative study of birth cohorts born 10 years apart

Collin Payne, Zuyun Liu, Darce Costello, Ling Han, Matthew Dupre, Qiushi Feng & Thomas Gill

Maternal exposure to intimate partner violence and child health in India: Evidence of an association from NFHS-3

Santosh Jatrana

15:10-15:35

Afternoon tea

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

15:35-16:45

Plenary 2 - Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there and where to next? Facilitated by Denise Carlton

Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2 (30 minutes plus 5 minutes of questions for each speaker)

· Australia at Twenty Five Million: How did we get there? Andrew Howe (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

· Australia at Twenty Five Million: Where to next? Tom Wilson (Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University)

18:00-21:00

Welcome function and Borrie Lecture - facilitated by Andrew Taylor

Crocosaurus Cove, 58 Mitchell St, Darwin City (www.crocosauruscove.com). Smart casual attire is welcome. Drinks and substantial cocktail food provided.

19:00-19:45 Borrie Lecture: Shifting Rural-Urban Boundaries: New patterns of spatial interdependence and inequality

Professor Daniel T. Lichter, Cornell University

Thursday 19th July

08:00- 09:00

Speakers presentation receiving desk open outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

09:00-09:45

Plenary 3 – facilitated by Ann Evans

Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Population Ageing in Australia: Beyond the cities

Professor Peter McDonald, University of Melbourne

09:45-11:00

Concurrent sessions 3

3a: Indigenous Demography

Meeting Room 1

Chair: James Raymer

3b: Fertility in Australia

Meeting Room 2

Chair: Kim Johnstone

3c: Households, residency and families

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Aude Bernard

3d: Children’s Health and Mortality

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Fiona Shalley

Understanding the increase - Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander counts in the Census

Debbie Goodwin

How are we going to get there? The relationship between differentials in Aboriginal mortality and 'Closing the Gap'

Helen Ware

30 years of change in central Australian Indigenous employment

Peter Strachan

The contribution of repartnered fertility to TFR in Australia

Edith Gray & Ann Evans

Recent trends and the spatial distribution of fertility in New South Wales

Nick Parr

Explaining fertility change in Australia from 2005 to 2016

Peter McDonald and Helen Moyle

Changing household formation of young adults

Rachel Shipp

How many people experience homelessness?

James O’Donnell

Socio-demographic differences in the sources of work-family conflict for Australian mothers

Meg Kingsley

Child health and nutrition in the Pacific

Alison Culpin

A mother’s death and child survival: a comparative analysis of two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa

Brian Houle, Chodziwadziwa Kabudula, Kobus Herbst & Samuel Clark

Healthcare seeking behaviour for children among climate-induced displaced people in remote Bangladesh

Md Rabiul Haque, Nick Parr & Salut Muhidin

11:00-11:25

Morning tea

Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4

Thursday 19th July

11:25-13:05

Concurrent sessions 4

4a: Using Administrative Data in Official Population Statistics

Meeting Room 1

Chair: Denise Carlton

4b: Workforce

Meeting Room 2

Chair: James O’Donnell

4c: Internal Migration in Australia

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Anita Maertens

4d: Regional and Local Population Change

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Nicole McNaughton

Using administrative data to inform previous address history: a comparison with the Census of Population and Housing

Ross Watmuff

Estimating internal migration using linked administrative data

Joshua Fairless (Stats NZ)

The potential for administrative data to assist in occupancy determination and person imputation in the Census of Population and Housing

Peta Darby

Population coverage studies of national administrative datasets

Warren Cote

The socioeconomic determinants of unpaid work in NSW

Marijan Jukic, Kim Johnstone, L. Ireland & D Sinclair

Who wants to go to work?

Jim Cooper & Jonathan Corcoran

The excessive working hours of young adults: evidence from Transition to Adulthood Survey in Greater Jakarta

Iwu Utomo & Muhammad Ulil Absor

Harnessing ethnocultural community knowledge to understand immigrant women entrepreneurship in Greater Darwin

Kate Golebiowska, Alicia Boyle & Ron Mitchell

Decline in internal migration levels in Australia between 1996 and 2016: composition or rate effect?

Sunganani Kalemba, Aude Bernard & Elin Charles-Edwards

Investigating the spatial structure of internal migration in Australia: connectivity, networks, and systems

Rosabella Borsellino, Elin Charles-Edwards, Aude Bernard & Jonathan Corcoran

Revealing the motivations for return migration in Australia

Angélique Parr

Subsequent migration of immigrants within Australia, 1981-2016

James Raymer & Bernard Baffour

Living in small towns - what does the Census tell us?

Kate Bond

Towns in Time - 35 years of data and stories about regional Victoria

David Sykes, Béatrice Derody & Mitchell Valentine

Highway to home: international migrant settlement in regional South Australia

Romy Wasserman & Fidelma Breen

Standin’ on a corner - are bypassed towns demographically doomed?Simone Alexander

13:05-14:05

Lunch and draw for the Cage of Death experience (Andrew Taylor)

Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4

13:15-14:05

Australian Population Association general meeting

Meeting Room 1

Thursday 19th July

14:05-15:45

Concurrent sessions 5

5a: Health and Mortality in China

Meeting Room 1

Chair: Alison Culpin

5b: New Demographic Datasets

Meeting Room 2

Chair: Angelique Parr

5c: Official Population Statistics

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Nicole McNaughton

5d: Miscellaneous Demographic Topics

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Dianne Rudd

Health care and poverty reduction in China’s least developed rural areas in its recent rapid socioeconomic changes

Zhongwei Zhao & Mengxue Chen

A study on the changing trend of the major health indicators of the elderly in mainland China: 1998-2014

Lu Jiehua & Guo Ran

Inequality in health status between migrants and urban residents in Chinese cities

Sisi Yang & Fei Guo

The physically present population

Myles Burleigh

People come, people go: a new typology of regions based on the characteristics of visitors linking traditional and non-traditional data sources in Australia

Elin Charles-Edwards & Radoslaw Panczak

Youth Social Exclusion Index at small area level: exploring its relationship with cultural diversity

Riyana Miranti, Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama

The REPstats database for Religion, Education and Population statistics

Crichton Smith, Nick Parr, Nikola Balnave, Lucy Taksa & Brian Croke

A migrant or not? Estimating external migration using outcomes and kicking the passenger card habit

Joshua Fairless (Stats NZ)

A richer picture of regional population change - the component-based approach

Hayley Sandercock

Estimating interstate migration: methods, challenges and results

Rachel Shipp

Measuring Census Coverage in Australia: Moving Beyond Net Undercount

Tony Barnes and Tania Mahoney

Immigration shaping Australian politics

Benjamin Krish

Beyond the city: geographical differences in religious identification from the big smoke to the outback

Stephen Reid

Skilled migration between developed economies: changes in labour market outcome profiles for Singaporean migrants in Australia, 2006-2016

Hannah Hia

Developing Population Data Analytical Capacity in Australia – recent developments in data linkage, secure remote access and data integration

Chris Radbone

15:45-16:05

Afternoon tea

Ground floor foyer – Outside Meeting Rooms 1-4

Thursday 19th July

16:05-16:50

Concurrent sessions 6

6a: Northern Territory Demography

Meeting Room 1

Chair: Edith Gray

6b: Demographic Forecasting Software

Meeting Room 2

Chair: James Raymer

6c: The demography of football and space

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Nick Parr

Populating the Territory - activating limited levers Ian Satchwell

The Northern Territory’s non-resident workforce – context, trends and implications

Anita Maertens

Demographic forecasting with POPGROUP

Ludi Simpson

New programs for regional population projections

Tom Wilson

A century of footballers: a microcosm of modern Australia

Andrew Howe

In the Digital Space: launching First Nations into space communities research

John Cokley

1630-1730

Cage of Death prize winners ‘receive’ their prize at Crocosaurus Cove

18:00-21:00

Conference dinner under the stars at Bicentennial Park, The Esplanade, Darwin City

Location: Opposite the Mantra on the Esplanade hotel - see map at the rear of this program. Smart casual attire is welcome. Drinks and three course meal provided.

Friday 20th July

07:30

Hugo Memorial Fun Run (organised by Ann Evans) – see map at the rear of this document

A 5km run or walk taking in the early morning Darwin sun and sights. Commences at the main entrance of the Darwin Convention Centre

08:00-09:00

Speakers presentation receiving desk open outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

09:15-10:00

Plenary 4 – facilitated by Andrew Taylor

Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Beyond the City and Above the Circle: Population trends and human development in the Arctic

Associate Professor Andrey Petrov, University of Northern Iowa

10:00- 10:10

Announcement of the winner of the Australian Population Studies data visualisation competition (Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2)

Tom Wilson

10:10-10:35

Morning tea

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

10:35-12:15

Concurrent sessions 7

7a: Health and Wellbeing

Meeting Room 1

Chair: Kate Golebiowska

7b: Applied Population Projections

Meeting Room 2

Chair: Angelique Parr

7c: Mortality and ageing

Meeting Room 3

Chair: Santosh Jatrana

7d: Population Ageing in South East Asia

Meeting Room 4

Chair: Iwu Utomo

Exploring moderating patterns of risk for behavioural and health issues among adolescents and adults who have experienced parental incarceration

Michael Roettger

Climate-induced displacement, impoverishment and health in mainland Bangladesh

Md. Rabiul Haque, Nick Parr & Salut Muhidin

Socio-demographic differences in the relationship between maternal work-family conflict and children’s mental health and behaviour in Australia

Meg Kingsley

What have we learned from examining long-term changes in temperature-mortality relationship?

Zhongwei Zhao, Edward Jow-Ching Tu & Yuan Zhu

How many Australians will have dementia in 40 years’ time? Challenges of projection modelling of chronic disease.

Laurie Brown

Projecting future demand for medically assisted fertility treatments

James Raymer, Qing Guan, Robert Norman, William Ledger & Georgina Chambers

Northern Territory population futures: Trends and projections

Hitesh Khanna

Cause of death decomposition of cohort survival comparisons: TCAL

Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Timothy Adair

Healthy life expectancy among elderly people in China: an estimation using multistate life table method

Guogui Huang & Fei Guo

The exploration of a method of making the life table in China

Li Jianxin, Liu Ruiping & Zhang Li

How long is expected to live for the Chinese elderly in “empty nest”?

Chen Wei, Duan Yuanyuan & Liu Jinju

Men’s role in caregiving of older adults: a comparative study of rural Indonesia and urban Singapore

Bina Gubhaju, Iwu Utomo & Abhijit Visaria

Ageing in rural Indonesia: health status, health behaviour and health care utilisation

Muhammad Absor

Physical Functioning among Older Persons in Indonesia

Evi Arifin & Aris Ananta

Distance Matters: Upward and Downward Exchange of Support between Elderly and Migrant and Non-migrant Children in Rural Indonesia

Nur Cahyadi

Friday 20th July

12:15-13:15

Lunch

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

13:15-14:15

Tour of Darwin’s historic and secret WWII tunnels (entry is included in conference registration)

Darwin’s and northern Australia’s population size and composition have been heavily influenced historically by defence activities and jobs. Currently the Northern Territory has 7% of all of the Nation’s defence sector jobs, compared to 1% of the population.

During WWII Darwin was bombed more than 60 times. The giant tunnels of our tour bore blood, sweat and tears in the hope, in part, to end WWII. Located beneath the cliffs of Darwin city, just a short walk from the Darwin Convention Centre, a well-informed gate keeper provides historical information before your self-guided and interactive tour begins.

Entry cost is included with your conference registration. Meet outside the Darwin Convention Centre at 1300 sharp for the 200 metre walk to the secret tunnels.

If you are interested in learning more about Darwin and the Northern Territory’s war history, we thoroughly recommend the Royal Flying Doctor Service Darwin Tourist Facility on Stokes Hill Wharf. It is just a short walk from the Darwin Convention Centre (see http://www.rfdsdarwin.com.au). Reliving the bombing of Darwin Harbour in 1942 through the virtual reality exhibition is a ‘must do’ and the exhibit has won multiple international awards.

14:20-14:40

Conference Close – Facilitated by Ann Evans

Waterfront rooms 1 and 2

Closing session

14:40-15:10

Afternoon tea

Level 2 Foyer - Outside Waterfront Rooms 1 and 2

Waterfront rooms 1 and 2, Level 2 Foyer - Main room Meeting Rooms 1, 2, 3 and 4 (Ground floor) – Concurrent Sessions

Level 2 Foyer

Morning and afternoon teas Wed & Fri

Lunch Wed & Fri

Meeting room 1

Meeting room 2

Meeting room 3

Meeting room 4

Ground Floor Foyer

Morning and afternoon teas Thurs

Lunch Thurs

Waterfront rooms 1 and 2

(Main room for opening and plenaries)

Conference dinner location – The Esplanade opposite Mantra on the Esplanade (while it says a 21 minute walk we anticipate 12-15 minutes at normal pace)

Walking map to Mantra on the EsplanadeLocation of conference dinner opposite the Mantra on the Esplanade

Conference dinner will include cocktails on arrival, a three course meal, premium drinks and entertainment

Hugo Memorial Fun Run route - 0730 on Friday 20 July (meet at the main entrance to the Darwin Convention Centre)