Chapter Fifteen Focus on the Future. Policing America, 6 th edition Kenneth Peak © 2009 Pearson...
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Transcript of Chapter Fifteen Focus on the Future. Policing America, 6 th edition Kenneth Peak © 2009 Pearson...
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.2
Why Take the Future Seriously?
Because of the reactive nature of policing, police officials tended not to be concerned about the future
Principles of futures research that are utilized include:
1. The unity or interconnectedness of reality
2. The crucial importance of time3. The significance of ideas
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.3
Why Take the Future Seriously?
Futurists subscribe to six time frames1. Immediate present (two years)2. Short term (two to five years)3. Mid-level (five to ten years)4. Long range (ten to twenty years)5. Extended (twenty to fifty years)6. Distant (fifty years and beyond)
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.4
Why Take the Future Seriously?
Futures Working Group Formed in 2002 Partnership between the FBI and
Police Futurists International Development of forecasts and
strategies to maximize effectiveness of all law enforcement entities as they strive to maintain peace and security
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.5
Predicting the Future: Environmental
Scanning and Scenario Writing
Environmental scanning An effort to put a social problem
under a microscope, with an eye toward the future
Allows us the capability to identify, track, and assess the prospects of emerging changes in the environment
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.6
Predicting the Future: Environmental
Scanning and Scenario Writing Scanning
Crime and justice researchers can examine the factors that seem likely to “drive” the environment
Three categories of drivers1. Social and economic conditions2. Shifts in the amounts and type of
crimes3. Possible developments in the criminal
justice system itself
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.7
Predicting the Future: Environmental
Scanning and Scenario Writing
Scenario writing The application of drivers to three
primary situations or elements
1. Tolerance for crime2. Amount of crime3. Capacity of the criminal justice
system to deal with crime
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.8
Predicting the Future: Environmental
Scanning and Scenario Writing An important consideration is whether
each will occur in high or low degrees Environmental scanning and scenario
writing provide a method of systematically surveying the prospects for change in the environment and exploring the value of potential policies
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.9
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Alvin Toffler Predicts that we are moving into
some of the most turbulent years in our history
Will put enormous strains on our police system
Believes that almost all major systems, from transportation to postal and educational systems, are in simultaneous crisis
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.10
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Simple-minded to blame crime solely on poverty
Collapse of the traditional nuclear family, and its replacement by two-career couples, childless couples, and much-married couple, has had a massive impact on policing
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.11
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Victimization and ViolenceCrime rate fell from 1992 through
20041. State legislators imposed tougher
sentences on violent criminals2. Local officials implemented
aggressive and intelligent methods of COPPS
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.12
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
New violence that has emerged over the past ten to fifteen years
In the past violence was a means to an end
Today an entire culture sees the use of violence an end in itself
Fueled by drugs Present challenges for police leaders
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.13
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Reduction in crime had minimal effect on reducing public’s fear of crime
This will be a major challenge in the future
Officers should be trained to assess causes and levels of individual, neighborhood, and community fear
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.14
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Drugs, alcohol, and guns 40% of violent crimes involve
alcohol 50% of convicted jail inmates were
under the influence of drugs or alcohol at the time of the offense
75% of convicted jail inmates were alcohol- or drug- involved at the time of their current offense
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.15
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Police leaders will have to think outside the box in the future in response to the changing drug market
Guns might increase the risk of victimization and a general fear of crime
Estimates of roughly 83 to 96 guns per 100 people in the US
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.16
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Cybercrime Data manipulation, software
piracy, industrial espionage, bank card counterfeiting, and embezzlement
Cyberterrorism Require the development of new
investigative techniques
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.17
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
An aging America 12.4% of the total population is at least
sixty-five years old Elderly are less likely than younger
people to become victims of violence and less likely to be injured during a violent crime
Only about 1.2 violent crimes per 1,000 are committed against persons over 65
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.18
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Elderly have a high fear of crime but are less likely to take protective measures than younger people
More likely to report a crime Can be victimized in nursing homes
and hospitals Relative isolation can lead to high
percentage of victimization in the home
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.19
Major Challenges in theNature and Types of Crime
Elderly are targeted more often for financial fraud than other people
Police must be more adept at preventing and investigating those types of crimes
Pose unique challenges for investigative personnel
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.20
High Technology: Coming Attractions
Augmented reality (AR) Uses wearable components to overlay
virtual information onto a real-world view
Still in early stages of development Being used today in sports and
military
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.21
High Technology: Coming Attractions
Possible uses of AR1. real-time language translation2. Real-time intelligence about crimes
and criminals in the patrol area3. Facial, voiceprint, and other
biometric recognition data of known criminals
4. Accessibility of scalable 3-D maps
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.22
High Technology: Coming Attractions
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) Powered aerial vehicles that do not carry
human operators and are designed to carry nonlethal payloads
Focuses on military applications at present
Could provide real-time reconnaissance, surveillance, and target spotting
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.23
High Technology: Coming Attractions
Nanotechnology Human hair is gigantic in the realm
of nanotechnology Allows for revolutionary new
products using new materials and substances not accessible with other technologies
Products could be lighter, stronger, and even interactive
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.24
Community-Oriented Policing
and Problem Solving
A central issue concerns community partnerships
Develop meaningful and lasting partnerships
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.25
Community-Oriented Policing
and Problem Solving
Several other issues1. Will police chief executives change the
culture of their agencies2. Implement the concept3. Decentralize their departments4. Invest in the necessary technology to
locate hot spots5. Develop the necessary mechanisms to
support COPPS
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.26
Role of Beat Officers Area of interest for the future of
policing concerns the attitudes and cognitive abilities of the recruits as they relate to the management styles they will confront
Only applicants who can think critically, plan, and evaluate will be hired
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.27
Role of Beat Officers Those entering policing in the future
probably will not have the military experience but will have higher levels of education and tend to be more independent
Exposed to more participative, supportive, and humanistic approaches
A major need for leadership will be the surrendering of power to lower organizational employees
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.28
Role of Beat Officers Other personnel issues Recruiting
Shifts toward older workers, fewer qualified entry-level workers, and more women, minorities, and immigrants in the population will require the police to devise new strategies for and to become more flexible in competing with the private sector
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.29
Role of Beat Officers With many young single mothers
heading households, the police must offer them attractive salaries, benefits, and workplace accommodations
Police will need to communicate with non-English speaking communities
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.30
Role of Beat OfficersOther predicted changes1. Ethics will be a part of everything
the police do2. Communications will be greatly
improved through internal intranets
3. Major cities will no longer require that the chief of police have prior policing experience
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.31
Role of Beat Officers4. Rigid paramilitary style will
become obsolete5. Current squad structure will give
way to more productive, creative teams of officers
6. Neighborhoods will more actively participate in the identification, location, and capture of criminals
Policing America, 6th editionKenneth Peak
© 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All Rights Reserved.32
In Sum: Organizations and Change
Political and economic elements in policing that have a strong bearing in change
According to Wilson, three types of change that police undergo
1. Unplanned near-term changes2. Planned near-term changes3. Fundamental long-term changes