Chapter Eighteen:

Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First

Century

Climate Change

Figure 18.1: Global Temperature Trends, 1900-2100

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov .

Economic Growth and the Environment

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 $ GNP per Capita

250 -

200 -

150 -

100 -

50 -

0 -

Kg

S02

per

Cap

ita

Source: Panayotou, T., "Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” 1993.

GNP per capita

Su

lfu

r d

iox

ide

em

issi

on

s p

er c

apit

a (k

g)

Su

lfur

dio

xide

em

issi

on

s p

er

capi

ta (

kg)

GNP per capita

Figure 18.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993.

Brunei

United Arab Emirates

United States

India

China

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

Kazakhstan

Gabon

Sweden

Switzerland

Norway

Figure 18.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Pe

rce

nt o

f to

tal t

ax

reve

nu

eFigure 18.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries

Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007

Table 18.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013

Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013.

Leis

ure

Income, Consumption

United States

Europe

Figure 18.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier

Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict?

Steady State

Time

Resource-usingEconomic Activities

Figure 18.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

0

50

100

150

200

Ind

ex

(20

05=

10

0)

Year

GDP/Capita

GHGUnemploymentPovertyDebt to GDP

Figure 18.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy

Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182.

Appendix: Demographic Challenges

Table 18.2: Stages of Demographic Transition

(a) 1900 (b) 2000

(c) 2040, projected

Figure 18.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected)

Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65+ in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Old

-Age

Dep

ende

ncy

Rat

io

Year

Italy

China

United States

Figure 18.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections.