CHAPTER 8 ELECTIONS AND CAMPAIGNS. In Europe, the party names the candidate. In the U.S. candidate...

CHAPTER 8 ELECTIONS AND

CAMPAIGNS

In Europe, the party names the candidate. In the U.S. candidate must

win a primary

Theme A: How Campaigns Are

Conducted.

Two phases: getting nominated and Two phases: getting nominated and getting elected getting elected

Getting nominated Getting nominated – Getting a name on the ballot Getting a name on the ballot – An individual effort (versus An individual effort (versus

organizational effort in Europe) organizational effort in Europe) – Parties play a minor role (compared Parties play a minor role (compared

with Europe) with Europe) – Parties used to play a major roleParties used to play a major role

Major differencesMajor differences

Presidential races are more Presidential races are more competitive. competitive. – House races have lately been one-House races have lately been one-

sided for Democrats. sided for Democrats. – Presidential winner rarely gets Presidential winner rarely gets

more than 55 percent of vote more than 55 percent of vote – Most House incumbents are Most House incumbents are

reelected (more than 90 percent)reelected (more than 90 percent)


Fewer people vote in Fewer people vote in congressional elections congressional elections – Unless election coincides with Unless election coincides with

presidential election presidential election – Gives greater importance to Gives greater importance to

partisan voters (party partisan voters (party regulars)regulars)


Congressional incumbents Congressional incumbents can service their can service their constituents. constituents. – Can take credit for Can take credit for

governmental grants, governmental grants, programs, and so forth programs, and so forth

– President can't: power is not President can't: power is not locallocal


Congressional candidates can Congressional candidates can duck responsibility. duck responsibility. – "I didn't do it; the people in "I didn't do it; the people in

Washington did!" Washington did!" – President is stuck with blame President is stuck with blame – But local candidates can suffer But local candidates can suffer

when their leader's economic when their leader's economic policies failpolicies fail


Benefit of presidential coattails Benefit of presidential coattails has declined has declined – Congressional elections have Congressional elections have

become largely independent become largely independent – Reduces meaning (and Reduces meaning (and

importance) of partyimportance) of party

Running for presidentRunning for president

Getting mentioned Getting mentioned – Using reporters, trips, Using reporters, trips,

speeches, and name speeches, and name recognition recognition

– Sponsoring legislation, Sponsoring legislation, governing large stategoverning large state


Setting aside time to run Setting aside time to run – Reagan: six years Reagan: six years – May have to resign from May have to resign from

office firstoffice first


Organization Organization – Need a large (paid) staff Need a large (paid) staff – Need volunteers Need volunteers – Need advisers on issues: Need advisers on issues:

position papersposition papers

1. Paid Professionals

Member of the incumbent’s staff or outside “hired gun” specialists.

2. Unpaid senior advisers, usually acquaintances of the candidate.

3. Citizen volunteers

who are given routine and boring jobs.

4. Issue consultants

who define issues and write position papers,


Strategy and themes Strategy and themes – Incumbent versus challenger: defend or Incumbent versus challenger: defend or

attack? attack? – Setting the tone (positive or negative) Setting the tone (positive or negative) – Developing a theme: trust, confidence, Developing a theme: trust, confidence,

and so on and so on – Judging the timing Judging the timing – Choosing a target voter: who's the Choosing a target voter: who's the

audience?audience?

5. Media personnel, organizers computerized direct-mail campaigns, and pollsters.

The Role of Technology in Elections - Television (Visuals and Spots), Computers (Public Opinion Polls, Focus Groups)

Television, debates, and direct mail Television, debates, and direct mail

Paid advertising (spots) Paid advertising (spots) – Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome:

spots tend to cancel each other out spots tend to cancel each other out – Most voters rely on many sources of information.Most voters rely on many sources of information.

News broadcasts (visuals) News broadcasts (visuals) – Cost little Cost little – May have greater credibility with voters May have greater credibility with voters – Rely on having TV camera crew around Rely on having TV camera crew around – May be less informative than spotsMay be less informative than spots

Television, debates, and direct mail Television, debates, and direct mail

Debates Debates – Usually an advantage only to the challenger Usually an advantage only to the challenger – Reagan in 1980: reassured voters Reagan in 1980: reassured voters – Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988

Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates – Ford and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and trees Ford and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and trees – Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches – Sell yourself, not your ideasSell yourself, not your ideas

The computer The computer – Makes direct mail campaigns possible Makes direct mail campaigns possible – Allows candidates to address specific voters Allows candidates to address specific voters – Creates importance of mailing listsCreates importance of mailing lists

Two kinds of campaign issues Two kinds of campaign issues

Position issues – rival Position issues – rival candidates have candidates have opposing viewsopposing viewsValence issues-matters Valence issues-matters on which everyone on which everyone agreesagrees

Primary versus general campaignsPrimary versus general campaigns

– Kinds of elections and primaries: Kinds of elections and primaries: general versus primary elections general versus primary elections

– Differences between primary and Differences between primary and general campaigns general campaigns

– What works in a general election may What works in a general election may not work in a primary not work in a primary

– Different voters, workers, and media attention Different voters, workers, and media attention – Must mobilize activists with money and Must mobilize activists with money and

motivation to win nomination motivation to win nomination – Must play to the politics of activistsMust play to the politics of activists


Iowa caucuses Iowa caucuses – Held in February of general election Held in February of general election

year year – Candidates must do well Candidates must do well – Winners tend to be "ideologically Winners tend to be "ideologically

correct" correct" – Most liberal Democrat, most Most liberal Democrat, most

conservative Republican conservative Republican – The caucus system: "musical chairs and The caucus system: "musical chairs and

fraternity pledge week"fraternity pledge week"


The balancing act The balancing act – Being conservative (or liberal) enough to get Being conservative (or liberal) enough to get

nominated nominated – Move to center to get elected Move to center to get elected – True nationwide in states where activists are True nationwide in states where activists are

more polarized than average voter more polarized than average voter – The "clothespin vote": neither candidate is The "clothespin vote": neither candidate is

appealingappealing

Even primary voters can be more extreme Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the average voterideologically than the average voterExample: McGovern in 1972Example: McGovern in 1972

Theme B:

Money in Electoral Campaigns

Money - How important is it?Money - How important is it?

"Money is the mother's milk "Money is the mother's milk of politics." of politics."

Are candidates being "sold" Are candidates being "sold" like soap? Answer is not so like soap? Answer is not so obviousobvious


Money Money – Individuals can give $2,000Individuals can give $2,000– political action committees (PACs) political action committees (PACs)

$5,000 per candidate or $15,000 $5,000 per candidate or $15,000 to national partyto national party

– Candidates must raise $5,000 in Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for twenty states to qualify for matching grants to pay for primarymatching grants to pay for primary

Sources

1. Candidates themselves2. Other Well to do people3. Organizations and Interest Groups

4. Small individual donors5. The Federal Government Up to $5 million in Primaries - Full funding in presidential general election.

Figure 8.1: The Cost of Winning Figure 8.1: The Cost of Winning

Source: Federal Election Commission Report, April 28, 1999.

Theme C:Elections and Party Alignments -- Probably today we are in an era of

dealignment.

Figure 8.5: Trends in Split-Ticket Voting for President and Figure 8.5: Trends in Split-Ticket Voting for President and Congress, 1920-1996Congress, 1920-1996

How We VoteHow We Vote

Prospective voting Prospective voting – Know the issues and vote for Know the issues and vote for

the best candidate the best candidate – Most common among activists Most common among activists

and special interest groups and special interest groups – Few voters use prospective Few voters use prospective

voting because it requires voting because it requires information.information.

How We VoteHow We VoteRetrospective voting Retrospective voting – Judge the incumbent's performance and Judge the incumbent's performance and

vote accordingly vote accordingly – Have things gotten better or worse, Have things gotten better or worse,

especially economically? especially economically? – Examples: presidential campaigns of Examples: presidential campaigns of

1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992 – Usually helps incumbent unless Usually helps incumbent unless

economy has gotten worse economy has gotten worse – Most elections decided by retrospective Most elections decided by retrospective

votes votes

Theme D:

Campaign‑Finance Reforms: Have they been effective?

$2,000 Maximum for Individual Donors

$5,000 Maximum for PACs

Campaign-finance reforms cannot be credited with a wholesale cleaning up of American politics, because relatively few things were “for sale”

1. The political parties have been weakened.

2. Candidates who are wealthy or who can appeal to many small donors have an advantage.

3. Incumbents have an advantage.

4. Late starters have a disadvantage.

5. Celebrities in politics have increased because they can stage benefits to raise money for candidates.

6. The issue of “soft money” has not been addressed. No real restrictions. Except no corporation or union can give money directly from its treasury to a national political party.

Independent ExpendituresIndependent Expenditures

Corporations, unions, and Corporations, unions, and associations may not use their own associations may not use their own money to fund “electioneering money to fund “electioneering communications” that refer to clearly communications” that refer to clearly identified candidates sixty days identified candidates sixty days before the general elections, or thirty before the general elections, or thirty days before a primary elections. days before a primary elections. PACs may up to their funding limits.PACs may up to their funding limits.

7. Political Action Committees (PACs) have increased in both numbers and influence.

Figure 8.2: Growth of PACsFigure 8.2: Growth of PACs

Source: Federal Election Commission.

Campaign Finance Reform 2002

Effective November 6 2002

See Brooking Institute at

http://www.brookings.org/gs/cf/cf_hp.htm

Self-TestSelf-Test

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