Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf ·...

33
Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIO Lending is the most important activity in banking to ensure proper utilization of resources. Availability of adequate loan (credit) facilities is utmost important in the production function of agriculture, industry, commerce and allied productive activities and thus, for the socio-economic development of the country. Channelization of bank credit in proper direction is equally important, otherwise, it may be counter productive (Pandey, 1968). Apart from the quantum, the bank credits, its development, composition and direction are equally important in realizing the countrys various macro-economic goals (Paul & Ahmed, 2005). Pamala and Negi (1997) suggested proper end use of loans to entrepreneurs, which could ensure economic development. On the other hand, judicious and profitable utilisation of the resources mobilised in the form of Share Capital, Reserves, Deposits, and Borrowings is most important aspect of resources management in banking institutions (Bharti, 1987). Liquidity, safety and profitability are main concerns for a banker while deciding the deployment of sources. But in the case of co-operatives banks, they have to make a balance between their social obligations and business compulsions. In these organizations, instead of profit maximization, it is maximization of members satisfaction which is considered to be of primary importance. (Bharali, 1987). Loans and advances by a bank may be grouped into the following three categories: (i) Industrial/Project loans (ii) Retail/Consumption loans (iii) Agricultural loans. 103

Transcript of Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf ·...

Page 1: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Chapter-5

LOANS PORTFOLIO

Lending is the most important activity in banking to ensure proper utilization

of resources. Availability of adequate loan (credit) facilities is utmost important in the

production function of agriculture, industry, commerce and allied productive activities

and thus, for the socio-economic development of the country. Channelization of bank

credit in proper direction is equally important, otherwise, it may be counter productive

(Pandey, 1968). Apart from the quantum, the bank credits, its development,

composition and direction are equally important in realizing the country’s various

macro-economic goals (Paul & Ahmed, 2005). Pamala and Negi (1997) suggested

proper end use of loans to entrepreneurs, which could ensure economic development.

On the other hand, judicious and profitable utilisation of the resources

mobilised in the form of Share Capital, Reserves, Deposits, and Borrowings is most

important aspect of resources management in banking institutions (Bharti, 1987).

Liquidity, safety and profitability are main concerns for a banker while deciding the

deployment of sources. But in the case of co-operatives banks, they have to make a

balance between their social obligations and business compulsions. In these

organizations, instead of profit maximization, it is maximization of members

satisfaction which is considered to be of primary importance. (Bharali, 1987).

Loans and advances by a bank may be grouped into the following three

categories:

(i) Industrial/Project loans

(ii) Retail/Consumption loans

(iii) Agricultural loans.

103

Page 2: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Agricultural loans were major financial activity of the co-operative banks and

they were not allowed to make advances in commercial loans. With the introduction

of financial reforms these banks have also been allowed to diversify their loan

portfolios. Once allowed to travel in forbidden waters they have created a niche for

themselves (Singh, 2005). Co-operative banks are there with a new range of loan

products suitable to the needs of their customers, especially poor ones.

Hence, an effort has been made to study the trends in and proportionate share

of various kinds of loans in selected DCCBs in Punjab and Haryana over a period of

time. For the purpose of this study, total loan has been grouped into three categories,

i.e., agriculture, non-agriculture and others. Agricultural and non-agricultural loans

have further been sub-divided into short- term and medium- term loans. Therefore,

following groups of loans have been studied:

(i) Short- term Agricultural Loans: Provided to farmers for a period of 6-12

months (one crop circle) to meet the expenses of crop production.

(ii) Short- term Non- agricultural Loans: Provided to the customers for a period of

6-12 months to meet their consumption needs.

(iii) Medium- term Agriculture Loans: Provided for a period of 3-5 years for the

purchase of agriculture implements or to start agricultural allied activities.

(iv) Medium-term Non-agricultural Loans: Provided for a period of 3-5 years for

the purchase of household durables or to start non-farm projects.

(v) Others: Provided to other co-operative organisations for commercial purposes,

such as cash credit facility to primary societies for the purchase of fertilizers

or co-operative mills against stock pledge.

104

Page 3: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

‘Loans advanced’ and ‘Loan outstanding’ are two terms used for analysis of

loans portfolios in banks. Loan advances refer to loan advanced during a particular

period or under a particular loan product up to a certain date. Loan outstandings are

the quantum of loan recoverable from customers on a particular date. Analysis of both is

important but the profitability of a bank is directly affected (positively as well as

negatively) by loan outstanding. If amount of loan outstanding increases due to poor

recovery, it is dangerous for the organisation and is a sign of ineffective management.

On the other hand, if recovery is good and loan outstanding increases due to fresh

advances, it shows efficiency of the management and indicates that good banking

practices have been adopted by the authorities of the banks. Therefore, an effort has

been made here to study loan outstandings.

PUNJAB DCCBs

HIGH PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN PUNJAB

Trend Analysis

Table 5.1 demonstrates that total loan outstandings increased significantly

from `16361 lakh in 1999-00 to `43632 lakh in 2007-08 at a CGR of 9.44 per cent

per annum. The outstandings against short-term agricultural loans also showed a

significant increasing trend from `9414 lakh to `35605 lakh at the rate of 14.21 per

cent compounded annually during the same period. However, the outstandings against

all other types of loans depicted no definite trend due to ups and down throughout the

period of study as indicated by the non-significant t-values. Short-term non-

agriculture loans increased from `5488 lakh in 1999-00 to ` 11689 lakh in 2001-02,

decreased to `3913 lakh in 2004-05 and again increased to `6625 lakh in next year.

However, in the last year of study it again decreased to ` 2571 lakh. A similar trend

105

Page 4: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

was witnessed in medium- term agriculture and non-agriculture loans. Medium- term

non-agriculture loans recorded the highest Compound Growth Rate of 25.32 per cent

but it was due to very low volume (only `231 lakh) in 1999-00.

Table 5.1 : Trends in Loans Outstandings in High Profitability DCCBs inPunjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort -term Medium-term Other

LoansTotal Loans

Agrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non-Agrl.

1999-00 9414 5488 614 231 614 16361

2000-01 10113 7532 733 2232 3719 24329

2001-02 11004 11689 999 1925 4396 30013

2002-03 14810 9758 1331 3793 4753 34445

2003-04 15481 3951 1531 4688 8964 34615

2004-05 18756 3913 2220 5644 4753 35286

2005-06 19028 6625 2297 6802 4812 39564

2006-07 15698 6383 2011 3967 4927 32986

2007-08 35605 2571 176 2134 3146 43632

Average 16656.56 6434.44 1323.56 3490.67 4453.78 32359.00

C.V. 47.56 45.39 56.93 58.93 48.85 24.99

C.G.R. 14.21 -8.88 0.34 25.32 13.43 9.44

t-value 4.99*** 1.75 0.03 1.82 1.30 3.93***

Trend Equation

Constant 4863.81 9025.11 859.64 1455.50 3265.89 19469.95

beta 2358.55 -518.33 92.78 407.03 232.40 2572.43

t-value 3.73*** 1.47 0.95 1.71 0.81 4.71***

Projections

2014-15 42600.61 731.83 2344.12 7967.98 6984.29 60628.83

2019-20 54393.36 -1859.82 2808.02 10003.13 8146.29 73490.98

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 19.65 -71.54 1231.89 273.38 122.01 38.95

2019-20 52.77 -172.34 1495.47 368.75 158.94 68.43

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level

106

Page 5: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

The trend equation showed that total loan outstandings would increase by

38.95 per cent in 2014-15 and further to 68.43 per cent in 2019-20 over those in 2007-

08. Similarly, the outstandings against short- term agricultural loans would increase

by 19.65 and 52.77 per cent in 2014-15 and 2019-20 respectively as compared to

2007-08. The fluctuations in outstandings against other types of loans would be there

in future also.

Trends in Proportionate Share of Loan Outstandings

Table 5.2 reveals that on average short- term agriculture loans alone account

for 50.44 per cent share in total loan outstandings, followed by short-term non-

agriculture by 21.81 per cent, and other loans 13.46 per cent. The table further

provides that the proportionate share of outstanding against short- term non-

agricultural loans declined significantly from 33.54 per cent in 1999-00 to 5.89 per

cent in 2007-08 at the rate of -16.72 per cent per annum. The share of all other types

of loans outstanding could not depict any definite trend. It met with heavy

fluctuations. The non- significant t-values also conveyed the same. The share of

outstanding against short- term agricultural loans ranged between 36.66 per cent in

2001-02 and 81.60 per cent in 2007-08, while it fluctuated between 6.29 per cent in

2004-05 and 0.40 per cent in 2007-08 in the case of medium-term agricultural loans.

The share of outstanding against medium- term non-agricultural loans increased from

1.41 per cent in 1999-00 to 17.19 per cent in 2005-06 which declined to 4.89 per cent

in 2007-08. Similarly, the share of outstanding against other loans increased from

3.75 per cent in 1999-00 to 25.90 per cent in 2003-04 which declined to 7.21 per cent

in 2007-08.

107

Page 6: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.2 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstandings in HighProfitability DCCBs in Punjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 57.54 33.54 3.75 1.41 3.75 100.00

2000-01 41.57 30.96 3.01 9.17 15.29 100.00

2001-02 36.66 38.95 3.33 6.41 14.65 100.00

2002-03 43.00 28.33 3.86 11.01 13.80 100.00

2003-04 44.72 11.41 4.42 13.54 25.90 100.00

2004-05 53.15 11.09 6.29 16.00 13.47 100.00

2005-06 48.09 16.75 5.81 17.19 12.16 100.00

2006-07 47.59 19.35 6.10 12.03 14.94 100.00

2007-08 81.60 5.89 0.40 4.89 7.21 100.00

Average 50.44 21.81 4.11 10.18 13.46

C.V. 26.22 52.92 45.06 51.31 45.23

C.G.R. 4.39 -16.72 -8.33 14.56 3.45

t-value 1.53 3.81*** 0.81 1.33 0.45

Trend Equation

Constant 38.12 39.05 3.83 6.09 12.91

Beta 2.47 -3.45 0.06 0.82 0.10

t-value 1.58 3.76*** 0.22 1.26 0.12

Projections

2014-15 77.64 -16.15 4.79 19.21 14.51

2019-20 89.99 -33.40 5.09 23.31 15.01

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -4.86 -374.08 1087.48 292.77 101.24

2019-20 10.28 -666.83 1161.86 376.60 108.17

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level

108

Page 7: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

AVERAGE PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN PUNJAB

Table 5.3 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in Average Profitability DCCBs inPunjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 10117 8076 1583 2722 2722 25220

2000-01 10550 11290 14 3037 8113 33004

2001-02 10213 13028 2307 4475 13487 43510

2002-03 13046 12236 1818 8289 22612 58001

2003-04 13500 14413 1527 11883 14618 55941

2004-05 14085 11823 1532 12939 9818 50197

2005-06 17799 11255 942 11874 5090 46960

2006-07 20323 11901 911 13214 6310 52659

2007-08 48838 3897 111 5820 5731 64397

Average 17607.89 10879.89 1193.89 8250.33 9833.44 47765.44

C.V. 69.37 28.66 64.29 52.63 62.77 25.89

C.G.R. 17.06 -5.01 -0.11 17.84 -0.93 8.98

t-value 4.30*** 1.03 0.01 2.47** 0.11 3.30**

Trend Equation

Constant 906.72 12450.30 1711.64 3052.75 11744.66 29870.55

beta 3340.23 -314.03 -103.55 1039.52 -382.68 3579.48

t-value 2.99** 0.76 1.05 2.30* 0.46 3.44**

Projections

2014-15 54350.40 7425.82 54.84 19685.07 5621.78 87142.23

2019-20 71051.55 5855.67 -462.91 24882.67 3708.38 105039.63

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 11.29 90.55 -50.59 238.23 -1.91 35.32

2019-20 45.48 50.26 -517.04 327.54 -35.29 63.11

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note: *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level*Significant at 10 % level

109

Page 8: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Trend Analysis

It is clear from Table 5.3 that total outstanding loans increased significantly

from ` 25220 lakh in 1999-00 to `64397 lakh in 2007-08 at the CGR of 8.98 per

cent per annum in average profitability DCCBs in Punjab. Similarly, the outstanding

against short- term agricultural loans and medium- term non-agricultural loans also

showed a significant increase at the compound growth rate of 17.06 and 17.84 per

cent respectively. Short- term agriculture loans increased from `10117 in 1999-00 to

`48838 in 2007-08 and medium- term non- agriculture loans increased from ` 2722

lakh in 1999-00 to `13214 in 2006-07 but decreased to ` 5820 lakh in the last year of

study. There was an insignificant decline in the outstanding against short- term non-

agricultural loans, medium- term agricultural loans and other loans, as indicated by

the non- significant t-values. The short- term agricultural loans outstanding would

increase by 11.29 per cent in 2014-15 and further by 45.48 per cent in 2019-20 as

compared to 2007-08. The overall outstanding against loans would increase by 35.32

and 63.11 per cent till 2014-15 and 2019-20 respectively over 2007-08 in average

profitability DCCBs in Punjab.

Proportionate Share of Different Loans Outstanding

Table 5.4 reveals that average proportionate share of short- term agriculture

loans is the highest, i.e., 35.84 per cent followed by short- term non-agriculture loans

with 24.36 per cent. Lowest average proportionate share, i.e., 2.72 is of medium-term

agriculture loans. The table further explains that there was a significant decline at the

rate of -12.84 per cent from 32.02 per cent to 6.05 per cent during 1999-00 to 2007-08

in the share of outstanding against short- term non-agricultural loans. However, the

110

Page 9: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

share of all other types of loans experienced heavy fluctuations during the same

period.

Table 5.4 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in AverageProfitability DCCBs in Punjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 40.11 32.02 6.28 10.79 10.79 100.00

2000-01 31.97 34.21 0.04 9.20 24.58 100.00

2001-02 23.47 29.94 5.30 10.28 31.00 100.00

2002-03 22.49 21.10 3.13 14.29 38.99 100.00

2003-04 24.13 25.76 2.73 21.24 26.13 100.00

2004-05 28.06 23.55 3.05 25.78 19.56 100.00

2005-06 37.90 23.97 2.01 25.29 10.84 100.00

2006-07 38.59 22.60 1.73 25.09 11.98 100.00

2007-08 75.84 6.05 0.17 9.04 8.90 100.00

Average 35.84 24.36 2.72 16.78 20.31 100.00

C.V. 45.99 33.69 76.73 44.40 52.10 0.00

C.G.R. 7.42 -12.84 -8.16 8.13 -9.09

t-value 1.53 3.02** 0.38 1.34 1.54

Trend Equation

Constant 19.41 36.71 4.88 9.93 29.07

beta 3.29 -2.47 -0.43 1.37 -1.75

t-value 1.73 3.85*** 1.84 1.54 1.35

Projections

2014-15 72.05 -2.81 -2.00 31.85 1.07

2019-20 88.50 -15.16 -4.15 38.70 -7.68

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -5.00 -146.43 -1260.31 252.41 -87.98

2019-20 16.69 -350.52 -2507.64 328.21 -186.30

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

111

Page 10: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

That is why the t-values were non-significant. The trend equation indicated

that there would be no outstanding against short- term non-agricultural loans in future.

Total outstandings against loans may also be said to decline in future in average

profitability banks in Punjab.

LOW PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN PUNJAB

Trend Analysis

The analysis given in Table 5.5 provides that total outstanding against loans

increased significantly at the CGR of 11.63 per cent per annum from `23495 lakh in

1999-00 to `57911 lakh in 2007-08 in low profitability DCCBs in Punjab. Similarly,

the increase in outstanding against short- term agricultural loans from `14070 lakh in

1999-00 to ` 33153 lakh in 2007-08 was found to be significant at a CGR of 12.32 per

cent per annum. A significant increase in outstanding against short- term non-

agricultural loan, medium- term agricultural loan and medium-term non-agricultural

loan could also be seen. The rate of compounded growth came to be 8.21, 61.04 and

18.22 per cent respectively. There was a non-significant decline in outstanding against

other loans. Anyhow, it emerged as a common feature that outstanding against all

types of loans, except other loans, increased significantly throughout the period of

study.

Keeping in view the existing trend, the outstanding against loans would

increase by 47.01 per cent in 2014-15 and 83.07 per cent in 2019-20 over 2007-08.

Similarly, the outstanding against short- term agricultural loans would increase by

44.71 and 82.05 per cent in 2014-15 and 2019-20 respectively as compared to that in

2007-08. The outstanding against short-term non-agricultural, medium- term

112

Page 11: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

agricultural and medium-term non-agricultural loan would also meet with a

significant increase in future.

Table 5.5 : Trends in Loans Outstandings in Low Profitability DCCBs inPunjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 14070 4736 62 2897 1730 23495

2000-01 13757 7091 48 3193 1989 26078

2001-02 14762 8135 95 4334 3517 30843

2002-03 17291 9069 246 5169 4118 35893

2003-04 18608 8485 642 7446 4530 39711

2004-05 20117 7498 709 7892 4842 41058

2005-06 24641 9640 1302 7975 1762 45320

2006-07 30297 9411 1365 9955 1333 52361

2007-08 33153 12046 1326 10079 1307 57911

Average 20744.00 8456.78 643.89 6548.89 2792.00 39185.56

C.V. 34.36 23.76 88.13 41.86 51.71 29.43

C.G.R. 12.32 8.21 61.04 18.22 -5.73 11.63

t-value 10.97*** 3.87** 6.65*** 9.81*** 0.87 20.05***

Trend Equation

Constant 8366.00 5320.19 -346.44 1630.64 3329.17 18299.19

Beta 2475.60 627.32 198.07 983.65 -107.43 4177.20

t-value 8.15*** 4.36** 8.61 14.05*** 0.55 20.67***

Projections

2014-15 47975.60 15357.31 2822.68 17369.04 1610.29 85134.39

2019-20 60353.60 18493.91 3813.03 22287.29 1073.14 106020.39

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 44.71 27.49 112.87 72.33 23.21 47.01

2019-20 82.05 53.53 187.56 121.13 -17.89 83.07

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note: *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

113

Page 12: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Proportionate Share of Different Loan Outstandings

Table 5.6 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in LowProfitability DCCBs in Punjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl. Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 59.89 20.16 0.26 12.33 7.36 100

2000-01 52.75 27.19 0.18 12.24 7.63 100

2001-02 47.86 26.38 0.31 14.05 11.40 100

2002-03 48.17 25.27 0.69 14.40 11.47 100

2003-04 46.86 21.37 1.62 18.75 11.41 100

2004-05 49.00 18.26 1.73 19.22 11.79 100

2005-06 54.37 21.27 2.87 17.60 3.89 100

2006-07 57.86 17.97 2.61 19.01 2.55 100

2007-08 57.25 20.80 2.29 17.40 2.26 100

Average 52.67 22.07 1.39 16.11 7.75 100.00

C.V. 9.34 15.42 76.22 17.74 51.86

C.G.R. 0.62 -3.07 44.25 5.90 -15.56

t-value 0.49 1.83 5.51*** 4.18** 2.74**

Trend Equation

Constant 51.12 25.60 -0.40 11.74 11.95

Beta 0.31 -0.70 0.36 0.88 -0.84

t-value 0.46 1.82 6.43*** 4.07** 1.85

Projections

2014-15 56.08 14.40 5.36 25.82 -1.49

2019-20 57.63 10.90 7.16 30.22 -5.69

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -2.04 -30.77 134.09 48.35 -166.02

2019-20 0.67 -47.60 212.70 73.64 -352.11

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

114

Page 13: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Analysis of Table 5.6 provides that on the average, short- term agriculture

loans accounted for 52.67 per cent in average proportionate share in total loan

outstandings in low profitability DCCBs in Punjab. Average proportionate share of

short- term non-agriculture loans was 22.07, followed by medium- term non-

agriculture loans with 16.11 per cent.

The table further brings out that share of outstandings against other loans

declined significantly at the rate of -15.56 per cent. The share of outstandings against

medium- term agricultural as well as non-agricultural loans increased significantly at

the rate of 44.25 and 5.90 per cent respectively. It may be said that the share of

outstandings against other loans would disappear in future, while there may be some

increase in the share of outstandings against medium-term agricultural and non-

agricultural loans in low profitability DCCBs in Punjab.

ALL SELECTED DCCBs IN PUNJAB

Trend Analysis

Table 5.7 presents that total outstandings against loans increased significantly

at the rate of 9.98 per cent compounded annually from `65076 lakh in 1999-00 to

`165940 lakh in 2007-08 in all the selected DCCBs in Punjab. Outstandings against

short- term agricultural and medium- term non-agricultural loans increased

significantly. The rate of increase was found to be 14.66 per cent in the case of

outstandings against short- term agricultural loans and 18.62 per cent in medium-

term non-agricultural loans.

The total outstanding loans as well as the outstandings against all types of

loans would increase in future also. The highest future increase would be seen in

115

Page 14: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

outstandings against medium- term agricultural loans, followed by medium- term

non-agricultural loans.

Table 5.7 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in the Selected DCCBs in Punjab:1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 33601 18300 2259 5850 5066 65076

2000-01 34420 25913 795 8462 13821 83411

2001-02 35979 32852 3401 10734 21400 104366

2002-03 45147 31063 3395 17251 31483 128339

2003-04 47589 26849 3700 24017 28112 130267

2004-05 52958 23234 4461 26475 19413 126541

2005-06 61468 27520 4541 26651 11664 131844

2006-07 66318 27695 4287 27136 12570 138006

2007-08 117596 18514 1613 18033 10184 165940

Average 55008.44 25771.11 3161.33 18289.89 17079.22 119310.00

C.V. 47.61 19.45 41.95 45.64 50.94 25.47

C.G.R. 14.66 -0.66 7.89 18.62 1.36 9.98

t-value 6.77*** 0.24 0.97 3.59*** 0.17 5.44***

Trend Equation

Constant 11169.81 26797.10 2224.83 6138.89 18314.91 67607.53

Beta 8174.38 -204.85 187.30 2430.20 -247.05 10339.60

t-value 4.36*** 0.30 1.11 3.49*** 0.21 6.79***

Projections

2014-15 141959.89 23519.50 5221.63 45022.09 14362.11 233041.09

2019-20 182831.79 22495.25 6158.13 57173.09 13126.86 284739.07

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 20.72 27.04 223.72 149.67 41.03 40.44

2019-20 55.47 21.50 281.78 217.05 28.90 71.59

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level

116

Page 15: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Proportionate Share

Table 5.8 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in theSelected DCCBs in Punjab: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 51.63 28.12 3.47 8.99 7.78 100

2000-01 41.27 31.07 0.95 10.14 16.57 100

2001-02 34.47 31.48 3.26 10.28 20.50 100

2002-03 35.18 24.20 2.65 13.44 24.53 100

2003-04 36.53 20.61 2.84 18.44 21.58 100

2004-05 41.85 18.36 3.53 20.92 15.34 100

2005-06 46.62 20.87 3.44 20.21 8.85 100

2006-07 48.05 20.07 3.11 19.66 9.11 100

2007-08 70.87 11.16 0.97 10.87 6.14 100

Average 45.16 22.88 2.69 14.77 14.49 100.00

C.V. 25.09 28.70 38.01 33.57 46.80

C.G.R. 4.26 -9.68 -1.90 7.86 -7.84

t-value 1.50 4.86*** 0.26 1.92* 1.36

Trend Equation

Constant 34.48 33.54 2.88 9.49 19.61

Beta 2.14 -2.13 -0.04 1.06 -1.02

t-value 1.60 5.13*** 0.27 1.90* 1.20

Projections

2014-15 68.72 -0.54 2.24 26.45 3.29

2019-20 79.42 -11.19 2.04 31.75 -1.81

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -3.03 -104.84 130.44 143.39 -46.39

2019-20 12.07 -200.30 109.87 192.16 -129.49

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level*Significant at 10 % level

117

Page 16: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.8 reveals that the share of outstandings in short- term non-agricultural

loans declined significantly from 28.12 per cent in 1999-00 to 11.16 per cent in 2007-

08 at the CGR of -9.68 per cent. However, the share of outstandings against medium-

term non-agricultural loans registered a significant increase at the compound rate of

7.86 per cent per annum. The trends were uncertain in the case of share of

outstandings against short- term agricultural, medium-term agricultural and other

loans. The t-values for these loans were non- significant. In future, the shift from

outstandings against short- term non-agricultural loans to medium- term agricultural

and non-agricultural loans would prevail in all the selected DCCBs in Punjab.

The overall analysis provides that total loan outstandings had increased

significantly in all the categories of selected DCCBs in Punjab during the period

of study. Short- term agricultural loans, the core area of their operations, had

also shown a similar trend. An in-depth study of Table 5.2, 5.4 and 5.6 shows that

average proportionate share of agriculture loan outstandings (both short- term

& medium- term) were 54.55 per cent, 38.56 per cent and 59.54 per cent

respectively in high, medium and low profit DCCBs in Punjab. It shows that

profitability in these banks of Punjab had no relationship with their loan mix.

HARYANA DCCBs

HIGH PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN HARYANA

Trend Analysis

Table 5.9 indicates that total outstanding loans increased significantly from

`23622 lakh in 1999-00 to `46401 lakh in 2007-08 at a compound growth rate of

9.41 per cent per annum. A similar pattern could be seen in outstandings against

118

Page 17: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

short-term agriculture loans and medium-term agricultural as well as non-agricultural

loans in high profitability DCCBs in Haryana.

Table 5.9 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in High Profitability DCCBs inHaryana: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 18810 1585 109 544 2574 23622

2000-01 15886 2007 139 1613 2996 22641

2001-02 22644 1827 196 1186 4341 30194

2002-03 24961 2025 143 1392 4599 33120

2003-04 25643 3456 1130 1148 5833 37210

2004-05 25871 2499 5074 1302 3403 38149

2005-06 29240 2390 4917 1529 2190 40266

2006-07 31757 1950 4459 1875 3772 43813

2007-08 30583 1931 5103 2117 6667 46401

Average 25043.89 2185.56 2363.33 1411.78 4041.67 35046.22

C.V. 21.08 25.17 102.50 32.19 36.76 23.85

C.G.R. 7.91 2.45 81.62 11.12 4.83 9.41

t-value 5.72*** 0.80 4.74*** 2.74** 0.97 9.05***

Trend Equation

Constant 15976.65 1951.14 -1579.09 772.28 2941.50 20062.12

Beta 1813.45 46.48 788.48 127.90 220.03 2996.75

t-value 4.16*** 0.64 5.20*** 3.20** 1.17 13.68***

Projections

2014-15 44991.85 2694.82 11036.59 2818.68 6461.98 68010.12

2019-20 54059.10 2927.22 14978.99 3458.18 7562.13 82993.87

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 47.11 39.56 116.28 33.15 -3.08 46.57

2019-20 76.76 51.59 193.53 63.35 13.43 78.86

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

119

Page 18: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

The outstandings against short-term agricultural loans increased significantly

from `18810 lakh to `30583 lakh during 1999-00 to 2007-08 at the rate of 7.91 per

cent, while the outstanding against medium-term agricultural loans increased

significantly from `109 lakh to `5103 lakh at a very high rate of 81.62 per cent during

the same period. The outstandings against medium-term non-agricultural loans

witnessed an increase from `544 lakh in 1999-00 to `2117 lakh in 2007-08 at a CGR

of 11.12 per cent.

On the basis of trend equations, total outstandings would increase by 46.57 per

cent in 2014-15 and further by 78.86 per cent in 2019-20 over 2007-08. Similarly, the

outstandings against short-term agricultural loans would also increase by 47.11 and

76.76 per cent in the respective years. A significant future increase in outstandings

against medium-term agricultural as well as non-agricultural loans are expected.

Proportionate Share

Table 5.10 shows that as usual in co-operative banks, in high profitability

DCCBs of Haryana also, short-term agricultural loans had the highest average

proportionate share, i.e., 71.99 per cent, followed by other loans with 11.71 per cent.

Short-term non agricultural, medium term agricultural and medium-term non-

agricultural loans had 6.46, 5.76 and 4.08 per cent average proportionate share

respectively.

A perusal of the table further reveals that the share of outstandings against

medium-term agricultural loans increased significantly from 0.46 per cent in 1999-00

to 11.00 per cent in 2007-08 at the growth rate of 66.08 per cent. On the other hand,

the share of short-term non-agricultural loan outstandings declined significantly at a

CGR of -6.36 per cent per annum.

120

Page 19: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.10 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in HighProfitability DCCBs in Haryana 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 79.63 6.71 0.46 2.30 10.90 100

2000-01 70.16 8.86 0.61 7.12 13.23 100

2001-02 75.00 6.05 0.65 3.93 14.38 100

2002-03 75.37 6.11 0.43 4.20 13.89 100

2003-04 68.91 9.29 3.04 3.09 15.68 100

2004-05 67.82 6.55 13.30 3.41 8.92 100

2005-06 72.62 5.94 12.21 3.80 5.44 100

2006-07 72.48 4.45 10.18 4.28 8.61 100

2007-08 65.91 4.16 11.00 4.56 14.37 100

Average 71.99 6.46 5.76 4.08 11.71 100.00

C.V. 5.95 26.67 99.26 32.73 29.32

C.G.R. -1.40 -6.36 66.08 1.57 -4.19

t-value 1.41 2.49** 4.16*** 0.37 0.98

Trend Equation

Constant 81.20 8.39 -3.14 4.12 13.62

Beta -1.04 -0.39 1.78 -0.01 -0.38

t-value 1.38 2.06* 4.31*** 0.05 0.42

Projections

2014-15 64.56 2.15 25.34 3.96 7.54

2019-20 59.36 0.20 34.24 3.91 5.64

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -2.05 -48.34 130.41 -13.20 -47.52

2019-20 -9.94 -95.19 211.34 -14.30 -60.75

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

121

Page 20: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

AVERAGE PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN HARYANA

Trend Analysis

Table 5.11 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in Average Profitability DCCBs inHaryana: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 13584 1820 227 1347 187 17165

2000-01 22649 6525 740 905 226 31045

2001-02 18540 3578 368 853 397 23736

2002-03 19293 3817 1698 831 397 26036

2003-04 19523 5126 2843 1045 530 29067

2004-05 23386 3068 3524 1442 547 31967

2005-06 26493 2340 2899 1432 1764 34928

2006-07 29574 10592 3408 1327 2547 47448

2007-08 32193 2568 2137 1539 3536 41973

Average 22803.89 4381.56 1982.67 1191.22 1125.67 31485.00

C.V. 25.68 62.72 65.10 23.59 107.34 29.23

C.G.R. 8.97 2.98 35.91 5.60 45.08 10.20

t-value 4.86*** 0.39 3.27*** 1.94 8.02*** 4.57***

Trend Equation

Constant 13203.60 3384.22 105.00 874.31 -811.25 16753.64

Beta 1920.17 199.47 375.53 63.38 387.38 2945.93

t-value 5.40*** 0.54 3.41*** 2.07* 4.86*** 4.82***

Projections

2014-15 43926.32 6575.74 6113.48 1888.39 5386.83 63888.52

2019-20 53527.17 7573.09 7991.13 2205.29 7323.73 78618.17

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 36.45 156.06 186.08 22.70 52.34 52.21

2019-20 66.27 194.90 273.94 43.29 107.12 87.31

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level*Significant at 10 % level

122

Page 21: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.11 describes that total outstanding loans increased significantly from

`17165 lakh in 1999-00 to `41973 lakh in 2007-08 at the growth rate of 10.20 per

cent compounded annually in average profitability DCCBs in Haryana. It emerged as a

common factor that outstandings against all types of loans, except short-term as well as

medium-term non-agricultural loans, increased significantly during the period

under study as indicated by the significant t-values. The outstandings against short-

term agricultural loans increased from ` 13584 lakh in 1999-00 to ` 22649 lakh in

2000-01 but decreased to `18540 lakh in 2001-02. It again increased to ` 23386 lakh

in 2004-05 and to `32193 lakh in the last year of study with an overall CGR of 8.97

per cent. Outstandings against medium-term agricultural loans showed an increase of

35.91 per cent per annum from `227 lakh to `2137 lakh during the same period. The

outstandings against short-term and medium-term non-agricultural loans could not

depict a significant trend, while outstandings against other loans registered an increase

from `187 lakh to ` 3536 lakh at the growth rate of 45.08 per cent during the same

period.

The existing trend conveys that there would be an increase of 52.21 per cent in

2014-15 and 87.31 per cent in 2019-20 in total outstanding loans over those in 2007-

08 in average profitability DCCBs in Haryana. Similarly, the outstandings against

short-term agricultural loans would be higher by 36.45 per cent in 2014-15 and by

66.27 per cent in 2019-20 as compared to those in 2007-08, while the respective

increase would be 186.08 per cent and 273.94 per cent in outstandings against

medium-term agricultural loans. The outstandings against other loans would also

increase by 52.34 and 107.12 per cent in 2014-15 and 2019-20 respectively over

123

Page 22: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

2007-08. This revealed that outstandings are bound to increase in future also in

average profitability DCCBs in Haryana.

Proportionate Share of Different Loans

Table 5.12 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in AverageProfitability DCCBs in Haryana: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 79.14 10.60 1.32 7.85 1.09 100

2000-01 72.96 21.02 2.38 2.92 0.73 100

2001-02 78.11 15.07 1.55 3.59 1.67 100

2002-03 74.10 14.66 6.52 3.19 1.52 100

2003-04 67.17 17.64 9.78 3.60 1.82 100

2004-05 73.16 9.60 11.02 4.51 1.71 100

2005-06 75.85 6.70 8.30 4.10 5.05 100

2006-07 62.33 22.32 7.18 2.80 5.37 100

2007-08 76.70 6.12 5.09 3.67 8.42 100

Average 73.28 13.75 5.91 4.02 3.04 100.00

C.V. 7.38 42.96 60.46 38.08 86.16

C.G.R. -1.11 -6.17 23.35 -4.17 31.64

t-value 1.15 1.42 2.43** 1.10 5.61***

Trend Equation

Constant 77.21 16.73 1.95 5.25 -1.14

Beta -0.79 -0.60 0.79 -0.25 0.84

t-value 1.15 0.76 2.02* 1.29 4.76***

Projections

2014-15 64.57 7.13 14.59 1.25 12.30

2019-20 60.62 4.13 18.54 0.00 16.50

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -15.81 16.54 186.56 -65.91 46.00

2019-20 -20.96 -32.50 264.15 -100.00 95.86

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note :*** Significant at 1% level*Significant at 10 % level

124

Page 23: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.12 depicts that in average profitability DCCBs in Haryana short-term

agriculture loan outstandings accounted for 73.28 per cent share on average, followed

by short-term non agriculture loans with 13.75 per cent share. The table further

explains that the proportionate share of outstandings against medium-term agricultural

loans increased significantly from 1.32 per cent in 1999-00 to 5.09 per cent in 2007-

08 at a CGR of 23.35 per cent. It is expected to increase up to 14.59 per cent in 2014-

15 and 18.54 per cent in 2019-20 in average profitability DCCBs in Haryana.

Similarly, the share of outstandings against other loans increased significantly from

1.09 per cent in 1999-00 to 8.42 per cent in 2007-08 at a growth rate of 31.64 per cent

per annum which would further increase to 12.30 per cent in 2014-15 and 16.50 per

cent in 2019-20. The share of outstandings against all other types of loans

demonstrated a non-significant tendency, due to stagnation or fluctuations.

LOW PROFITABILITY DCCBs IN HARYANA

Trend Analysis

Table 5.13 describes that total outstanding loans increased from ` 46839 lakh

in 1999-00 to `78940 lakh in 2007-08 at a significant growth rate of 7.13 per cent

compounded annually in low profitability DCCBs in Haryana. Similarly, outstandings

against short-term agricultural loans increased significantly from `31055 lakh to `

56772 lakh at the growth rate of 8.05 per cent during the period of study, while

outstandings against short-term non-agricultural loans could not depict a significant

increase as indicated by non-significant t-value. However, medium-term agricultural

as well as non-agricultural loans increased significantly at a growth rate of 41.26 and

10.19 per cent per annum respectively.

125

Page 24: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.13 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in Low Profitability DCCBs inHaryana: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agri Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 31055 7815 687 3098 4184 46839

2000-01 36768 7304 811 2566 5291 52740

2001-02 29373 8186 120 2522 0 40201

2002-03 34841 8574 1024 3010 0 47449

2003-04 35205 8713 3740 3244 0 50902

2004-05 38955 6895 6360 3888 0 56098

2005-06 47939 6778 5203 4448 0 64368

2006-07 53783 8844 4344 5046 0 72017

2007-08 56772 12957 3342 5646 223 78940

Average 40521.22 8451.78 2847.89 3718.67 1077.56 56617.11

C.V. 24.46 21.96 79.25 29.93 194.39 22.45

C.G.R. 8.05 3.39 41.26 10.19 7.13

t-value 5.25*** 1.39 2.36** 5.74*** 4.38***

Trend Equation

Constant 24259.58 6727.36 -212.19 1855.17 36346.42

Beta 3252.65 344.88 612.02 372.70 4053.63

t-value 5.42*** 1.56 2.93** 6.09*** 4053.63

Projections

2014-15 76301.98 12245.44 9580.13 7818.37 101204.50

2019-20 92565.23 13969.84 12640.23 9681.87 121472.65

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 34.40 -5.49 186.66 38.48 28.20

2019-20 63.05 7.82 278.22 71.48 53.88

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

126

Page 25: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

The total outstandings against loans would be higher by 28.20 per cent in

2014-15 and 53.88 per cent in 2019-20 over those in 2007-08 in low profitability

DCCBs in Haryana. The outstandings against short-term agriculture loans would also

increase by 34.40 and 63.05 per cent and medium-term non-agricultural loans by

38.48 and 71.48 per cent respectively. Medium-term agricultural loans would record

an increase of 186.66 and 278.22 per cent in the year 2014-15 and 2019-20

respectively over those in the year 2007-08. If the trend remains the same, the

outstandings against other loans would disappear in low profitability DCCBs in

Haryana.

Proportionate Share

A glance at Table 5.14 provides that on the average the proportionate share of

outstandings against short-term agricultural loans appeared as high as 71.35 per cent,

while it was as low as of 2.14 per cent in the case of share of outstandings against

other loans. Average proportionate share of outstandings against medium-term non-

agricultural loans was 6.50 per cent. However, the proportionate share of outstandings

against all other types of loans could not depict any definite trend. The share of

outstandings against short-term agricultural loans, short-term non-agricultural loans

and medium-term agricultural loans remained either constant or unstable with

wide fluctuations. The share of outstandings against medium-term non-agricultural

loans increased at a significant growth rate of 2.86 per cent, which would be

8.34 per cent in the year 2014-15 which would further go up to 9.19 per cent in the

year 2019-20.

127

Page 26: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.14 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in LowProfitability DCCBs in Haryana: 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agri Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 66.30 16.68 1.47 6.61 8.93 100

2000-01 69.72 13.85 1.54 4.87 10.03 100

2001-02 73.07 20.36 0.30 6.27 0.00 100

2002-03 73.43 18.07 2.16 6.34 0.00 100

2003-04 69.16 17.12 7.35 6.37 0.00 100

2004-05 69.44 12.29 11.34 6.93 0.00 100

2005-06 74.48 10.53 8.08 6.91 0.00 100

2006-07 74.68 12.28 6.03 7.01 0.00 100

2007-08 71.92 16.41 4.23 7.15 0.28 100

Average 71.35 15.29 4.72 6.50 2.14 100.00

C.V. 4.00 21.04 78.81 10.63 195.16

C.G.R. 0.86 -3.49 31.81 2.86

t-value 1.89 1.36 2.03 2.31**

Trend Equation

Constant 68.34 17.89 0.62 5.62

Beta 0.60 -0.53 0.82 0.17

t-value 1.88 1.31 2.01 2.53**

Projections

2014-15 77.94 9.41 13.74 8.34

2019-20 80.94 6.76 17.84 9.19

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 8.37 -42.67 224.55 16.61

2019-20 12.54 -58.81 321.39 28.49

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : ** Significant at 5 % level

128

Page 27: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

ALL SELECTED DCCBs IN HARYANA

Trend Analysis

Table 5.15 : Trends in Loans Outstanding in the Selected DCCBs in Haryana1999-00 to 2007-08 (` in lakh)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 63449 11220 1023 4989 6945 87626

2000-01 75303 15836 1690 5084 8513 106426

2001-02 70557 13591 684 4561 4738 94131

2002-03 79095 14416 2865 5233 4996 106605

2003-04 80371 17295 7713 5437 6363 117179

2004-05 88212 12462 14958 6632 3950 126214

2005-06 103672 11508 13019 7409 3954 139562

2006-07 115114 21386 12211 8248 6319 163278

2007-08 119548 17456 10582 9302 10426 167314

Average 88369.00 15018.89 7193.89 6321.67 6244.89 123148.33

C.V. 22.56 22.09 79.34 26.38 34.66 23.20

C.G.R. 8.12 3.72 46.29 8.96 0.22 8.38

t-value 9.99*** 1.37 3.87*** 6.56*** 0.05 9.31***

Trend Equation

Constant 53435.91 12062.93 -1686.39 3501.75 5850.89 73169.52

Beta 6986.27 591.23 1776.03 563.98 78.80 9996.32

t-value 9.02*** 1.48 3.04** 6.50*** 0.27 8.84***

Projections

2014-15 165216.23 21522.61 26730.09 12525.43 7111.69 233110.64

2019-20 200147.58 24478.76 35610.24 15345.33 7505.69 283092.24

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 38.20 23.30 152.60 34.65 -31.79 39.33

2019-20 67.42 40.23 236.52 64.97 -28.01 69.20

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note: *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

129

Page 28: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.15 demonstrates that the total outstanding loans increased from `

87626 lakh in 1999-00 to ` 167314 lakh in 2007-08, registering a significant growth

rate of 8.38 per cent compounded annually in all the selected DCCBs in Haryana. The

outstandings against short-term agricultural loans increased significantly from `63449

lakh in 1999-00 to ` 119548 lakh in 2007-08 with a compound growth rate of 8.12 per

cent, while outstandings against medium-term agricultural loans increased from

`1023 lakh to `10582 lakh during the same period registering a compound growth

rate of 46.29 per cent. There was, again, a significant increase from ` 4989 lakh in

1999-00 to ` 9302 lakh in 2007-08 in outstandings against medium-term non-

agricultural loans.

The total outstanding loans would increase by 39.33 per cent in 2014-15 and

further by 69.20 per cent in 2019-20 over 2007-08 in all the selected DCCBs in

Haryana. This increase would be 38.20 and 67.42 per cent in outstandings against

short-term agricultural loans, 152.60 and 236.52 per cent in outstandings against

medium-term agricultural loans, and 34.65 and 64.97 per cent in outstandings against

other loans. Thus, in future, it is expected that outstanding loans would increase in all

the selected DCCBs in Haryana.

Proportionate Share

Table 5.16 reveals that there was a significant increase from 1.17 per cent in

1999-00 to 6.32 per cent in 2007-08 in proportionate share of outstandings against

medium-term agricultural loans. The share of outstandings against all other types of

loans remained insignificant. This showed that outstanding loans would change in the

same proportion in future in all the selected DCCBs in Haryana.

130

Page 29: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

Table 5.16 : Trends in Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding in theSelected DCCBs in Haryana 1999-00 to 2007-08 (Percentage)

YearShort-term Medium-term Other

LoansTotalLoansAgrl. Non-Agrl Agrl. Non- Agrl.

1999-00 72.41 12.80 1.17 5.69 7.93 100

2000-01 70.76 14.88 1.59 4.78 8.00 100

2001-02 74.96 14.44 0.73 4.85 5.03 100

2002-03 74.19 13.52 2.69 4.91 4.69 100

2003-04 68.59 14.76 6.58 4.64 5.43 100

2004-05 69.89 9.87 11.85 5.25 3.13 100

2005-06 74.28 8.25 9.33 5.31 2.83 100

2006-07 70.50 13.10 7.48 5.05 3.87 100

2007-08 71.45 10.43 6.32 5.56 6.23 100

Average 71.89 12.45 5.30 5.12 5.24 100.00

C.V. 3.07 19.11 74.58 7.08 35.92

C.G.R. -0.24 -4.30 34.92 0.54 -7.53

t-value 0.57 1.93 3.22*** 0.57 1.96

Trend Equation

Constant 72.75 15.02 -0.08 4.99 7.33

Beta -0.17 0.51 1.08 0.03 -0.42

t-value 0.58 1.94 2.96** 0.53 2.04*

Projections

2014-15 70.03 23.18 17.20 5.47 0.61

2019-20 69.18 25.73 22.60 5.62 -1.49

% Change Over 2007-08

2014-15 -1.99 122.18 171.95 -1.61 -90.21

2019-20 -3.18 146.62 257.33 1.09 -123.91

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

The analysis given above has established that as in Punjab DCCBs total

loan outstandings and short-term agriculture loan outstandings had shown a

131

Page 30: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

significant growth during the period of study. A perusal of Table 5.10, 5.12 and

5.14 reveals that an average proportionate share of outstanding agricultural

loans (both short-term + medium-term) was 77.75, 81.79 and 76.07 respectively

in high, medium and low profitability DCCBs in Haryana. Therefore, no relation

of loan mix and profitability of DCCBs may be established in DCCBs of

Haryana. To draw meaningful inferences it needs to be studied in relation to

recovery of these banks.

Comparison of Outstanding Loans in Punjab and Haryana DCCBs

Table 5.17 : Comparison of Loans Outstanding in DCCBs in Punjab andHaryana during 1999-00 to 2007-08

Loan O/SPunjab Haryana

t-valueMean SD Mean SD

ST-Agrl. 55008.44 29929.82 88369.00 19936.05 2.78**

ST-Non Agrl. 25771.11 7856.46 15018.89 3317.67 3.78***

MT-Agrl. 3161.33 1410.62 7193.89 5707.63 2.05*

MT-Non Agrl. 18289.89 8146.38 6321.67 1667.66 4.32***

Others 17079.22 8733.15 6244.89 2164.48 3.61***

Total 119310.00 28369.14 123148.33 28570.41 0.29

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level** Significant at 5 % level

*Significant at 10 % level

A comparison of different types of outstanding loans as well as total

outstanding loans is shown in Table 5.17. On the average of period of 9 years under

study, total outstanding loans were `119310 lakh in Punjab and `123148.33 lakh in

Haryana which were statistically at par as the t-value came to be non- significant. The

132

Page 31: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

outstandings against short-term agricultural loans came to be significantly higher in

DCCBs in Haryana, i.e., `88369 lakh against `55008 lakh in Punjab. On the other

hand, the outstandings against short-term non-agricultural loans were significantly

higher to the order of ` 25771.11 lakh in DCCBs in Punjab as compared to `15018.89

lakh in DCCBs in Haryana. Similarly, the outstandings against medium-term non-

agricultural loans and other loans came to be significant higher in DCCBs in Punjab

as compared to those in DCCBs in Haryana. New product lines in their loan portfolio

such as Recovery Cash Credit to farmers, overdraft facility to employees in Punjab

DCCBs are the main factors for this.

Table 5.18 : Comparison of Proportionate Share of Loans Outstanding inDCCBs in Punjab and Haryana during 1999-00 to 2007-08

Loan O/SPunjab Haryana

t-valueMean SD Mean SD

ST-Agrl. 45.16 14.79 71.89 2.21 5.36***

ST-Non Agrl. 22.88 8.31 12.45 2.38 3.62***

MT-Agrl. 2.69 1.13 5.30 3.95 1.91*

MT-Non Agrl. 14.77 5.36 5.12 0.36 5.39***

Others 14.49 6.60 5.24 1.88 4.04***

Total 100.00 100.00

Source : Basic Data on Performance of District Central Co-operative Banks,Published by NAFSCOB, Mumbai, 1999-00 to 2007-08

Note : *** Significant at 1% level*Significant at 10 % level

Table 5.18 highlights that the proportionate share of outstandings against

short-term agricultural loans was significantly higher in DCCBs in Haryana (71.89%)

as compared to that in DCCBs in Punjab (45.16%). On the other hand, the shares of

outstandings against short-term non-agricultural loans, medium-term non-agricultural

133

Page 32: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

loans and other loans were significantly higher in DCCBs in Punjab, i.e., 22.89, 14.77

and 14.49 per cent respectively as compared to the respective figures of 12.45, 5.12

and 5.24 per cent in DCCBs in Haryana.

The overall analysis provides that loan portfolio is well managed in

Punjab as compared to Haryana. Low proportionate share of outstandings

against short-term agricultural loans in DCCBs, Punjab (45.16 per cent) as

compared to DCCBs, Haryana (71.89 per cent) shows that

(a) DCCBs of Punjab had succeeded in diversifying their business in non-

farm/ commercial loans.

(b) They were more efficient in recovery management of short-term

agricultural loans.

134

Page 33: Chapter-5 LOANS PORTFOLIOshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/4270/12/12_chapter 5.pdf · Table 5.2 reveals that on average short-term agriculture loans alone account for 50.44

REFERENCES

Bharali, Devdas (1987), Co-operative Banking and Economic Development, Deep &

Deep Publications, New Delhi, p.117.

Pandey, K.L. (1968), Development of Banking in India since 1949, Calcutta Scientific

Book Agency, Calcutta, p.80.

Pamala, K.S.; and Negi, K.S. (1997), Sickness of Small Scale Industries: Problems &

Prospectus, New Trends in Indian Industries, Vol.2, Chugh Publication,

Allahabad.

Paul, R.K.; and Ahmed, J.U. (2005), Public Sector Banks in India: Impact of

Financial Sector Reforms. Kalpaz Publications, Delhi, p.97.

Singh, N. (2005), Changing Socio- economic Scenario and Co-operatives, Inter-

office Note, ACSTI, September, Jalandhar.

135