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The Practice of Statistics, 4th edition – For AP*

STARNES, YATES, MOORE

Chapter 4: Designing Studies

Section 4.2

Experiments

+ Chapter 4

Designing Studies

4.1 Samples and Surveys

4.2 Experiments

4.3 Using Studies Wisely

+ Section 4.2

Experiments

After this section, you should be able to…

DISTINGUISH observational studies from experiments

DESCRIBE the language of experiments

APPLY the three principles of experimental design

DESIGN comparative experiments utilizing completely randomized

designs and randomized block designs, including matched pairs

design

Learning Objectives

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Experim

ents

Observational Study versus Experiment

In contrast to observational studies, experiments don’t just

observe individuals or ask them questions. They actively

impose some treatment in order to measure the response.

Definition:

An observational study observes individuals and measures

variables of interest but does not attempt to influence the

responses.

An experiment deliberately imposes some treatment on

individuals to measure their responses.

When our goal is to understand cause and effect, experiments are the

only source of fully convincing data.

The distinction between observational study and experiment is one of

the most important in statistics.

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Experim

ents

Examples

Is Soy Good For You?

Does Taking Hormones Reduce Heart Attack Risk

After Menopause?

The Miracle of Vitamin D – Sound Science or Hype?

Texting While Driving

Owning More Cars Leads to a Longer Life

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Experim

ents

Observational Study versus Experiment

Observational studies of the effect of one variable on another

often fail because of confounding between the explanatory

variable and one or more lurking variables.

Definition:

A lurking variable is a variable that is not among the

explanatory or response variables in a study but that may

influence the response variable.

Confounding occurs when two variables are associated in

such a way that their effects on a response variable cannot be

distinguished from each other.

Well-designed experiments take steps to avoid confounding.

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Experim

ents

The Language of Experiments

An experiment is a statistical study in which we actually do

something (a treatment) to people, animals, or objects (the

experimental units) to observe the response. Here is the

basic vocabulary of experiments.

Definition:

A specific condition applied to the individuals in an experiment is

called a treatment. If an experiment has several explanatory

variables, a treatment is a combination of specific values of these

variables.

The experimental units are the smallest collection of individuals

to which treatments are applied. When the units are human

beings, they often are called subjects.

Sometimes, the explanatory variables in an experiment are called factors.

Many experiments study the joint effects of several factors. In such an

experiment, each treatment is formed by combining a specific value (often

called a level) of each of the factors.

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Experim

ent

A Louse-y Situation

A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine

(March 11, 2010) compared two medicines to treat head lice:

an oral medication called ivermectin a topical lotion containing

malathion. Researchers studied 812 people in 376

households in seven areas around the world. Of the 185

randomly assigned to ivermectin, 171 were free from head lice

after two weeks compared to only 151 of the 191 households

randomly assigned to malathion.

Alternate Example

Problem: Identify the experimental units, explanatory and response variables,

and the treatments in this experiment.

Solution: The experimental units are the households, not the individual people,

since the treatments were assigned to entire households, not separately to

individuals within the household. The explanatory variable is type of medication

and the response variable is whether the household was lice-free. The

treatments were ivermectin and malathion.

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Experim

ent

Growing Tomatoes

Does adding fertilizer affect the productivity of tomato plants?

How about the amount of water given to the plants? To

answer these questions, a gardener plants 24 similar tomato

plants in identical pots in his greenhouse. He will add fertilizer

to the soil in half of the pots. Also, he will water 8 of the plants

with 0.5 gallons of water per day, 8 of the plants with 1 gallon

of water per day and the remaining 8 plants with 1.5 gallons of

water per day. At the end of three months he will record the

total weight of tomatoes produced on each plant.

Alternate Example

Problem: Identify the explanatory and response variables, experimental units,

and list all the treatments.

Solution: The two explanatory variables are fertilizer and water. The response

variable is the weight of tomatoes produced. The experimental units are the

tomato plants. There are 6 treatments:

(1) fertilizer, 0.5 gallon (2) fertilizer, 1 gallon

(3) fertilizer, 1.5 gallons (4) no fertilizer, 0.5 gallons

(5) no fertilizer, 1 gallon (6) no fertilizer, 1.5 gallons

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Experim

ent

How to Experiment Badly

Experiments are the preferred method for examining the effect

of one variable on another. By imposing the specific treatment

of interest and controlling other influences, we can pin down

cause and effect. Good designs are essential for effective

experiments, just as they are for sampling.

Example, page 236

A high school regularly offers a review course to

prepare students for the SAT. This year, budget cuts

will allow the school to offer only an online version of

the course. Over the past 10 years, the average SAT

score of students in the classroom course was 1620.

The online group gets an average score of 1780.

That’s roughly 10% higher than the long- time

average for those who took the classroom review

course. Is the online course more effective?

Students -> Online Course -> SAT Scores

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Experim

ent

Does Caffeine Affect Pulse Rate

Many students regularly consume caffeine to help them stay

alert. Thus, it seems plausible that taking caffeine might

increase an individual’s pulse rate. Is this true? One way to

investigate this is to have volunteers measure their pulse

rates, drink some cola with caffeine, measure their pulses

again after 10 minutes and calculate the increase in pulse rate.

Alternate Example

Unfortunately, even if every student’s pulse rate went

up, we couldn’t attribute the increase to caffeine.

Perhaps the excitement of being in an experiment made

their pulse rates increase. Perhaps it was the sugar in

the cola and not the caffeine. Perhaps their teacher told

them a funny joke during the 10 minute waiting period

and made everyone laugh! In other words, there are

many variables that are potentially confounded with

caffeine.

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Experim

ent

How to Experiment Badly

Many laboratory experiments use a design like the one in the

online SAT course example:

Experimental

Units Treatment

Measure

Response

In the lab environment, simple designs often work well.

Field experiments and experiments with animals or people deal

with more variable conditions.

Outside the lab, badly designed experiments often yield

worthless results because of confounding.

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Experim

ents

How to Experiment Well: The Randomized

Comparative Experiment

The remedy for confounding is to perform a comparative

experiment in which some units receive one treatment and

similar units receive another. Most well designed experiments

compare two or more treatments.

Comparison alone isn’t enough, if the treatments are given to

groups that differ greatly, bias will result. The solution to the

problem of bias is random assignment.

Definition:

In an experiment, random assignment means that

experimental units are assigned to treatments at

random, that is, using some sort of chance process.

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Experim

ent

More Caffeine

Suppose you have a class of 30 students who

volunteer to be subjects in the caffeine

experiment described earlier.

Problem: Explain how you would randomly

assign 15 students to each of the two treatments.

Alternate Example

Solution: Using 30 identical slips of paper, write A on 15 and B

on the other 15. Mix them thoroughly in a hat and have each

student select one paper. Have each student who received an A

drink the cola with caffeine and each student who received a B

to drink the cola without caffeine.

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Experim

ents

The Randomized Comparative Experiment

Definition:

In a completely randomized design, the treatments are

assigned to all the experimental units completely by chance.

Some experiments may include a control group that receives

an inactive treatment or an existing baseline treatment.

Experimental

Units

Random

Assignment

Group 1

Group 2

Treatment

1

Treatment

2

Compare

Results

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Experim

ent

Dueling Diets

A health organization wants to know if a low-carb or low-fat diet is

more effective for long-term weight loss. The organization decides

to conduct an experiment to compare these two diet plans with a

control group that is only provided with brochure about healthy

eating. Ninety volunteers agree to participate in the study for one

year.

Problem: Outline a completely randomized design for this

experiment. Write a few sentences describing how you would

implement your design.

Alternate Example

90 Volunteers Random

Assignment

Group 1

30 Subjects

Group 3

30 Subjects

Treatment 1

Low Carb

Treatment 3

Control

Compare

Weight

Loss

Group 2

30 Subjects

Treatment 2

Low Fat

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Experim

ents

Three Principles of Experimental Design

Randomized comparative experiments are designed to give

good evidence that differences in the treatments actually

cause the differences we see in the response.

1. Control for lurking variables that might affect the response: Use a

comparative design and ensure that the only systematic difference

between the groups is the treatment administered.

2. Random assignment: Use impersonal chance to assign experimental

units to treatments. This helps create roughly equivalent groups of

experimental units by balancing the effects of lurking variables that aren’t

controlled on the treatment groups.

3. Replication: Use enough experimental units in each group so that any

differences in the effects of the treatments can be distinguished from

chance differences between the groups.

Principles of Experimental Design

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Experim

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More Caffeine

Problem: Explain how to use all three principles of

experimental design in the caffeine experiment.

Alternate Example

Solution:

Control: There should be a control group that receives non-caffeinated cola.

Also, the subjects in each group should receive exactly the same amount of

cola served at the same temperature. Also, each type of cola should look

and taste exactly the same and have the same amount of sugar. Subjects

should drink the cola at the same rate and wait the same amount of time

before measuring their pulse rates. Try to control lurking variables.

Randomization: Subjects should be randomly assigned to one of the two

treatments. This should roughly balance out the effects of the lurking

variables we cannot control, such as body size, caffeine tolerance, and the

amount of food recently eaten.

Replication: We want to use as many subjects as possible to help make the

treatment groups as equivalent as possible. This will give us a better

chance to see the effects of caffeine, if there are any.

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Experim

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Example: The Physicians’ Health Study

Read the description of the Physicians’ Health Study on page

241. Explain how each of the three principles of experimental

design was used in the study.

A placebo is a “dummy pill” or inactive

treatment that is indistinguishable from the real

treatment.

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Experim

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Experiments: What Can Go Wrong?

The logic of a randomized comparative experiment depends

on our ability to treat all the subjects the same in every way

except for the actual treatments being compared.

Good experiments, therefore, require careful attention to

details to ensure that all subjects really are treated identically.

A response to a dummy treatment is called a placebo effect. The

strength of the placebo effect is a strong argument for randomized

comparative experiments.

Whenever possible, experiments with human subjects should be

double-blind.

Definition:

In a double-blind experiment, neither the subjects nor those

who interact with them and measure the response variable

know which treatment a subject received.

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Experim

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Inference for Experiments

In an experiment, researchers usually hope to see a difference

in the responses so large that it is unlikely to happen just

because of chance variation.

We can use the laws of probability, which describe chance

behavior, to learn whether the treatment effects are larger than

we would expect to see if only chance were operating.

If they are, we call them statistically significant.

Definition:

An observed effect so large that it would rarely occur by chance is

called statistically significant.

A statistically significant association in data from a well-designed

experiment does imply causation.

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Experim

ents

Activity: Distracted Drivers

Is talking on a cell phone while driving more distracting than talking to a passenger?

Read the Activity on page 245.

Perform 10 repetitions of your simulation and report the number of drivers in the cell

phone group who failed to stop

Teacher: Right-click (control-click) on the graph to edit the counts.

In what percent of the class’ trials did 12 or more people in the cell phone group fail to stop?

Based on these results, how surprising would it be to get a result this large or larger simply

due to chance involved in random assignment? Is this result statistically significant?

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Experim

ents

Blocking

Completely randomized designs are the simplest statistical designs

for experiments. But just as with sampling, there are times when the

simplest method doesn’t yield the most precise results.

Definition

A block is a group of experimental units that are known before

the experiment to be similar in some way that is expected to

affect the response to the treatments.

In a randomized block design, the random assignment of

experimental units to treatments is carried out separately within

each block.

Form blocks based on the most important unavoidable sources of variability

(lurking variables) among the experimental units.

Randomization will average out the effects of the remaining lurking variables

and allow an unbiased comparison of the treatments.

Control what you can, block on what you can’t control, and randomize

to create comparable groups.

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Experim

ent

Better Texting?

A cell phone company is considering two different

keyboard designs (A and B) for its new line of cell

phones. Researchers would like to conduct an

experiment using subjects who are frequent texters and

subjects who are not frequent texters. The subjects will

be asked to text several different messages in 5

minutes. The response variable will be the number of

correctly typed words.

Alternate Example

Problem:

(a) Explain why a randomized block design might be preferable to a

completely randomized design for this experiment.

(b) Outline a randomized block experiment using 100 frequent texters and

200 novice testers.

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Experim

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Matched-Pairs Design

A common type of randomized block design for comparing two

treatments is a matched pairs design. The idea is to create blocks by

matching pairs of similar experimental units.

Definition

A matched-pairs design is a randomized blocked experiment

in which each block consists of a matching pair of similar

experimental units.

Chance is used to determine which unit in each pair gets each

treatment.

Sometimes, a “pair” in a matched-pairs design consists of a

single unit that receives both treatments. Since the order of the

treatments can influence the response, chance is used to

determine with treatment is applied first for each unit.

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Experim

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Example: Standing and Sitting Pulse Rate

Consider the Fathom dotplots from a completely randomized

design and a matched-pairs design. What do the dotplots

suggest about standing vs. sitting pulse rates?

+ Section 4.2

Experiments

In this section, we learned that…

We can produce data intended to answer specific questions by observational studies or experiments.

In an experiment, we impose one or more treatments on a group of experimental units (sometimes called subjects if they are human).

The design of an experiment describes the choice of treatments and the manner in which the subjects are assigned to the treatments.

The basic principles of experimental design are control for lurking variables, random assignment of treatments, and replication (using enough experimental units).

Many behavioral and medical experiments are double-blind.

Summary

+ Section 4.2

Experiments

In this section, we learned that…

Some experiments give a placebo (fake treatment) to a control

group that helps confounding due to the placebo-effect.

In addition to comparison, a second form of control is to form blocks

of individuals that are similar in some way that is important to the

response. Randomization is carried out within each block.

Matched pairs are a common form of blocking for comparing just

two treatments. In some matched pairs designs, each subject

receives both treatments in a random order.

Summary, con’t

+ Looking Ahead…

We’ll learn how to use studies wisely.

We’ll learn about

The Scope of Inference

The Challenges of Establishing Causation

Data Ethics

In the next Section…