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Transcript of Chapter 14 The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 14-1 Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill...
Chapter 14
The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
14-1Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Objectives
14-2
• The organization of the Federal Reserve System
• Reserve requirements• The deposit expansion multiplier• The tools of monetary policy• The Feds effectiveness in fighting
inflation and recession• The Banking Act of 1980 and 1999
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 created the Federal Reserve System– To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve
banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes
– First United States Bank [ 1791 - 1811]– Second United States Bank [ 1816 - 1836]
• The charters of both were allowed to lapse
– The 1907 bank crises caused the public to demand the government do something to keep this from happening again
The Federal Reserve System
14-3Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Reserve System
• The Federal Reserve has five main jobs– Conduct monetary policy which is, by far,
the most important job• Monetary policy is the control of the rate of
growth of the money supply to foster relatively full employment, price stability, and a satisfactory rate of economic growth
– Serve as lender of last resort to commercial banks, savings banks, savings and loan associations, and credit unions
14-4Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Reserve System
• The Federal Reserve has five main jobs– Issue currency– Provide banking services to the U.S.
government– Supervise and regulate our financial
institutions
14-5Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Reserve District Banks
• Each Federal Reserve District Bank is owned by the several hundred member banks in that district– A commercial bank becomes a member by buying
stock in the Federal Reserve District Bank
– So, the Fed is a quasi public-private enterprise, not controlled by the President or Congress
• Effective control is really exercised by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C.
14-6Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Reserve System• Board of Governors
– Seven members
– Appointed by President
– Confirmed by Senate
• Sets reserve requirements
• Supervises and regulates member banks
• Establishes and administers regulations
• Oversees Federal Reserve Banks
• 12 District Banks
• Propose discount rates
• Hold reserve balances for member institutions
• Lends reserves
• Furnish currency
• Collects & clears checks
• Handle U.S. government debt & cash balances
Federal Open Market Committee (Board of Governors plus 5 Reserve Bank Presidents. This committee directs open market operations which is the primary instrument of monetary policy
14-7Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
14-8Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Reserve System
Independence of the Board of GovernorsIndependence of the Board of Governors
• Neither the President nor Congress has any control over the Board of Governors – The President gets to appoint Board
members when a vacancy occurs• Sometime this may be the Chairman
– Once the Senate confirms the President’s appointment the person appointed is not answerable to the President nor the Senate
– This independence allows them to follow unpopular policies if they feel it is in the best economic interest of the nation
14-9Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Legal Reserve Requirements
• The most important job of the Federal Reserve is to control the money supply
• The focal point of the Federal Reserve’s control of our money supply is legal reserve requirements– Every financial institution in the country is legally
required to hold a certain percentage of its depositsdeposits on reserve, either in the form of deposits and/or cash at its Federal Reserve District Bank or its own vaults
14-10Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Legal Reserve Requirements• Technical Term Meanings
– Required Reserves (RR) is the minimum amount of vault cash and deposits (RD) at the Federal Reserve District Bank that must be held (kept on the books) by the financial institution
– Actual Reserves (RD) is what the bank is holding (on the books)
– Excess Reserves = Actual Reserves - Required Reserves
• ER = RD - RR
14-11Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
14-13
If a bank had $100 million in checking deposits (DD), how much reserves would it be required to hold?
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
First $7.8 million of deposits: 0% reserve requirement
Next 40.5 million: $40,500,000 X .03 = 1,215,000
Next 51.7 million: $51,700,000 X .10 = 5,170,000
Required Reserves = $6,385,000
What About Negative Excess Reserves?
• If actual reserves (RD) are less than Required Reserves (RR), the excess Reserves (ER) are negative– If a bank does find itself short, it will usually
borrow reserves from another bank that does have excess reserves. These are called federal funds and the interest rate charge is called the federal funds rate
– A bank may also borrow reserves (RD) from its Federal Reserve District Bank at its discount window
14-14Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• A bank’s primary reserves are its vault cash and its deposits at the the Federal District Bank– These reserves pay no interest, therefore the
banks try to hold no more than the Federal Reserve requires
Primary and Secondary Reserves
14-15Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Every bank holds secondary reserves, mainly in the form of very short-term U.S. government securities– Treasury bills, notes, certificates, and bonds
(that will mature in less than a year) are generally considered a bank’s secondary reserves
– These can be quickly converted to cash without loss if a bank suddenly needs money
Primary and Secondary Reserves
14-16Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Deposition Expansion(Continued)
14-18
How Deposit Expansion WorksBank A FED
DD + 100RD + 100 A> RD +100
Assume a 10% RRCopyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Deposition Expansion
14-19
How Deposit Expansion Works
Bank AFEDDD + 100RD + 100
A> RD +100
Assume a 10% RR
RR 10ER + 90
Bank BDD + 90RD + 90
B> RD + 90
RR 9ER + 81
Bank CDD + 81.0RD + 81
C> RD + 81.0
ER 8.1ER + 72.9
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
RD + $1,000,000
When RDs at the Fed increase the money supply is increasing
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Deposit Expansion Multiplier(DEM)
14-20
DEM = 1
Reserve Ratio
Assume a RR of 10%
DEM =1
.10= 10
Assume a RR of 25%
DEM = 1
.25= 4
When RR increases
DEM decreases
When RR decreases
DEM increases Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Three Modifications of the Deposit Expansion Multiplier
• Not every dollar of deposit expansion will actually be re-deposited again and lent out repeatedly– Some people may choose to hold or spend
some money as currency
• It is also possible that some banks will carry excess reserves– This is not likely in times of high inflation
14-21Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Three Modifications of the Deposit Expansion Multiplier
• There are leakages of dollars to foreign countries– This is caused mainly by our foreign trade
imbalance
• The Deposit Expansion Multiplier is, in reality, quite a bit lower than if we based it solely on the reserve ratio– If the reserve ratio tells us it is 10, perhaps
it’s only 6
14-22Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cash, Checks, and Electronic Money
• One of the jobs of the Federal Reserve is check clearing• In 2004 Congress passed the Check Clearing Act of the
21st Century– This was intended to hasten the adoption of electronic check
processing• When you use your debit card the amount is deducted
within seconds after the card is swiped• We still carry out about 80 percent of our transactions
in cash– However cash covers less than one percent of monetary
transactions– Electronic transfers account for five out of every six dollars
that move in the economy
14-23Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cash, Checks, and Electronic MoneyOne of the jobs of the Federal Reserve is check clearing
14-24
$50 00
Me Bob
$50 00
Bob
Bank ofAmerica
Branch office
BobÕs checkingaccount risesby $50
$50 00
$50 00$50 00
NewYorkFederal Reserve
District Bank
San FranciscoFederal Reserve
District Bank
Bank ofAmerica
Main office
Deducts $50 fromCitibankÕsreserves
Bank ofAmericaÕsreserves rise by $50
$50 00Citibank
Main office$50 00
Citibank
Branch office
Deducts $50 frommy checking account
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Increasingly, money is changing hands electronically– Today, $1.5 trillion a day is transferred electronically– About one-third of these transfers are carried out by the
Federal Reserve’s electronic network– About two-thirds are done by the Clearing House Interbank
Payment System (CHIPS) which is owned by 10 big New York Banks
• Does all this mean that we are well on our way to a checkless, cashless society?– Yes and no
Cash, Checks, and Electronic Money
14-25Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Does all this mean that we are well on our way to a checkless, cashless society?– Yes and no
– We still carry out nearly 85 percent of our monetary transactions in cash
– When the total dollars actually spent is considered, cash covers less than 1 percent of the total value
– Electronic transfers account for five out of every six dollars that move in the economy
Cash, Checks, and Electronic Money
14-26Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Tools of Monetary Policy
• The most important job of the Fed is to control the rate of growth of the money supply
• This effort focuses on the reserves held by financial institutions– The most important policy tool to do this is
open-market operations
14-27Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How Open-Market Operations Work
• Open-Market operations are the buying and selling of U.S. government securities– U.S. government securities are treasury bills, notes,
certificates, and bonds
– The Fed buys and sells securities that have already been marketed by the treasury
• The total value of all outstanding U.S. government securities is more than $4.0 trillion. This is our national debt
– What open market operations consist of, then, is the buying and selling of chunks of the national debt
14-28Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-29
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
The multiplier would be 1010 X 90 million = 900 million X .60 = approximate increase in the money supply of 540 million over a period of time
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-30
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
If the Fed goes on a buying spree, it will quickly drive up the prices of U.S. government securities
IR = Interest Paid
Price of Bond
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-31
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
If the Fed goes on a buying spree, it will quickly drive up the prices of U.S. government securities
IR = $80
$1000
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-32
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
If the Fed goes on a buying spree, it will quickly drive up the prices of U.S. government securities
IR = $80
$1000= 8%
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-33
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
Suppose this pushed the price of the bond up to $1200?
IR = $80
$1000= 8%
IR = $80
$1200= 6.67%
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Increases the Money Supply
14-34
The FED buys U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Fed writes a check for, say, $100 million (this is money created out of nothing)
Securities Firm
DD + $100
Assume 10% RR
RD + $100RR - 10 ER + 90
When the Fed goes into the open market to buy securities, it bids up their price and lowers their interest rate
IR = $80
$1000= 8%
IR = $80
$1200= 6.67%
Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Decreases the Money Supply
14-35
The FED sells U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Security firm writes a check for, say, $100 million to the Fed (this check is, in effect, destroyed)
Securities Firm
DD - $100
Assume 10% RR
RD - $100
When the Fed goes into the open market to sell securities, bond, and notes prices fall and interest rates climb
The money supply decreases by approximately $540 million over time
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
How the Fed Decreases the Money Supply
14-36
The FED sells U. S. Government SecuritiesThe Security firm writes a check for, say, $100 million to the Fed (this check is, in effect, destroyed)
Securities Firm
DD - $100
Assume 10% RR
RD - $100
When the Fed goes into the open market to sell securities, bond prices fall and interest rates climb
IR = $80
$1000= 8%
IR = $80
$1200= 6.67%
The money decreases by approximately $540 million over time
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Open-Market Committee (FOMC)
• Open-market operations are conducted by the Federal Open-Market Committee (FOMC)– This committee consist of 12 people
• Eight permanent members – the board of Governors and the president of the New York Federal Reserve District Bank
• The other four are presidents of the other 11 Federal Reserve District Banks
– They serve on a rotating basis
14-37Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Federal Open-Market Committee (FOMC)
14-38
• The FOMC meets about once every six weeks to decide what policy to follow– To fight recessions, the FOMC buys
securities• This increases the rate of growth of the money
supply
– To fight inflation, the FOMC sells securities• This decreases the rate of growth of the money
supply
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The discount rate is the interest rate paid by member banks when they borrow reserve deposits (RD) at their Federal Reserve District Bank
• The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for borrowing reserve deposits (RD) from each other– This is higher than the discount rate
• Banks borrow to maintain their required reserves (RR)– Banks tend to borrow reserve deposits from each
other because they may not like to call attention to the fact they are having to borrow reserve deposits
14-39
Borrowing Reserve Deposits
Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
14-40Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Increase in the Money Supply Decrease in the Money Supply
Changing Reserve Requirements
• The Federal Reserve Board has the power to change reserve requirements within the legal limits of 8 and 14 percent for checkable deposits– Changing reserve requirements is the
ultimate weapon and is rarely used
14-42Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Changing Reserve Requirements
• To fight inflation, before the Board would take the drastic step of raising reserve requirements– The District Banks would raise the discount
rate– The FOMC will be actively selling securities– Credit will be getting tighter– The chairman will be publicly warning that
the banks are advancing too many loans
14-43Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Changing Reserve Requirements
• If the money supply is still growing too rapidly – the Fed reaches for its biggest stick and raises
reserve requirements– This weapon is so rarely used because it is simply
too powerful– If the reserve requirement on demand deposits were
raised by just one half of 1 percent, the nation’s banks and thrift institutions would have to come up with nearly $4 billion in reserves
• This would drastically reduce the nation’s money supply
14-44Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Summary: The Tools of Monetary Policy
• To fight recession, the Fed will– Lower the discount rate– Buy securities on the open market– Lower reserve requirements
• This would be done only as a last resort
14-45Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Summary: The Tools of Monetary Policy
• To fight inflation, the Fed will– Raise the discount rate– Sell securities on the open market– Raise reserve requirements
• This would be done only as a last resort
14-46Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Fed’s Effectiveness in Fighting Inflation
(Assume all the tools have been used)• Bond prices have plunged• Interest rates have soared• The growth of the money supply has been
stopped dead in its tracks• Banks find it impossible to increase their loan
portfolios• Buying by consumers and businesses is
declining• The inflation rate has no choice but to decline
14-47Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Fed’s Effectiveness in Fighting Recession
(Assume all the tools have been used)• Bond prices have increased• Interest rates have gone down• Banks will have excess reserves and want to
make loans– But who wants to borrow the money?
• Creditworthy individuals and business have little incentive to borrow any money
• Businesses and individuals who really need to borrow money can’t because the first rule of banking is: never lend money to anyone who needs it.
• Easy money has little or no effect in ending a recession
14-48Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Fed’s Effectiveness in Fighting Inflation and Recession
• Federal Reserve policy in fighting inflation and recession has been likened to pulling and then pushing on a string– Like pulling on a string, when the Fed fights
inflation, it get results – provided of course, it pulls hard enough
– Fighting a recession is another matter. Like pushing on a string, no matter how hard the Fed works, it might not get anywhere
14-49Copyright 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.