Chapter 10 Principles of Corporate Finance Eighth Edition A Project is Not A Black Box Slides by...

Chapter 10

Principles of

Corporate FinanceEighth Edition

A Project is Not A Black Box

Slides by

Matthew Will

Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved

McGraw-Hill/Irwin


10- 2

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Topics Covered

Sensitivity Analysis– Break Even Analysis

Monte Carlo SimulationReal Options and Decision Trees


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

How To Handle Uncertainty

Sensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects of changes in sales, costs, etc. on a project.

Scenario Analysis - Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions.

Simulation Analysis - Estimation of the probabilities of different possible outcomes.

Break Even Analysis - Analysis of the level of sales (or other variable) at which the company breaks even.


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Sensitivity Analysis

ExampleGiven the expected cash flow forecasts for Otobai Company’s Motor Scooter project, listed on the next slide, determine the NPV of the project given changes in the cash flow components using a 10% cost of capital. Assume that all variables remain constant, except the one you are changing.


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin


315- FlowCashNet

3.0flow cash Operating

1.5after taxProfit

1.550% @ .Taxes

3profitPretax

1.5onDepreciati

3Costs Fixed

30Costs Variable

37.5Sales

15-Investment

10-1 Years0Year

Example - continued

NPV= 3.43 billion Yen


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Example - continued

Possible Outcomes

bil 2bil 3bil 4Cost Fixed

275,000300,000360,000CostVar Unit

380,000375,000350,000priceUnit

.16.1.04ShareMarket

mil 1.1mil 1.0mil .9SizeMarket

OptimisticExpectedcPessimistiVariable

Range


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Example - continuedNPV Calculations for Optimistic Market Size Scenario

NPV= +5.7 bil yen

3.3815- FlowCashNet

3.38flow cash Operating

1.88after taxProfit

1.8850% @ .Taxes

3.75profitPretax

1.5onDepreciati

3Costs Fixed

33Costs Variable

41.25Sales

15-Investment

10-1 Years0Year


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin


Example - continued

NPV Possibilities (Billions Yen)

6.53.40.4Cost Fixed

11.13.415.0-CostVar Unit

5.03.44.2-priceUnit

17.33.410.4-ShareMarket

5.73.41.1SizeMarket

OptimisticExpectedcPessimistiVariable

Range


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Break Even Analysis

Point at which the NPV=0 is the break even point Otobai Motors has a breakeven point of 85,000

units sold.

Sales, 000’s

PV (Yen)

Billions

400

200

19.6

85 200

Break even

NPV=0

PV Inflows

PV Outflows


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Electric Scooter – NPV

Cash Flows, Years 1-10, Billions

Base CaseHigh Oil Prices and

Recession Case

1 Revenue 37.5 44.9 2 Variable cost 30.0 35.9 3 Fixed cost 3.0 3.5 4 Depreciation 1.5 1.5 5 Pretax profit (1-2-3-4) 3.0 4.0 6 Tax 1.5 2.0 7 Net profit (5-6) 1.5 2.0 8 Net cash flow (4+7) 3.0 3.5

18.4 21.5 NPV 3.4 6.5

PV of cash flows


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Electric Scooter - Assumptions

Base CaseHigh Oil Prices and

Recession CaseMarket size 1 million .8 million

Market share 0.1 0.13Unit Price 375000 431300

Unit variable cost 300000 345000Fixed cost 3 billion 3.5 billion

Assumptions


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Electric Scooter - Scenarios

InflowsYear 0

Unit Sales, Thousands

Revenue, Years 1-10 Investment

Variable Costs

Fixed Costs Taxes PV Inflows

PV Outflows NPV

0 0 15 0 3 -2.25 0 19.6 -19.6100 37.5 15 30 3 1.5 230.4 227 3.4200 75 15 60 3 5.25 460.8 434.4 26.4

OutflowsYears 1-10


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Electric Scooter – Accounting Profit

Unit Sales, Thousands Revenue

Variable Costs

Fixed Costs Depreciation Taxes

Total Costs

Profit after Tax

0 0 0 3 1.5 -2.25 2.25 -2.25100 37.5 30 3 1.5 1.5 36 1.5200 75 60 3 1.5 5.25 69.75 5.25


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Electric Scooter – Cash Flows

Year 0 Year 1-10

Investment 15.00 1. Revenue 37.50 2. Variable cost 12.00 3. Fixed cost 19.00 4. Depreciation 1.50

5. Pretax profit (1-2-3-4) 5.00 6.Tax 2.50 7. Net profit (5-6) 2.50

8. Operating cash flow (4+7) 4.00

Net cash flow (15.00) 4.00


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Monte Carlo Simulation

Step 1: Modeling the ProjectStep 2: Specifying ProbabilitiesStep 3: Simulate the Cash Flows

Modeling Process


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Monte Carlo Simulation


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Flexibility & Real Options

Decision Trees - Diagram of sequential decisions and possible outcomes.

Decision trees help companies determine their Options by showing the various choices and outcomes.

The Option to avoid a loss or produce extra profit has value.

The ability to create an Option thus has value that can be bought or sold.


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Decision Trees

NPV=0

Don’t test

Test (Invest $200,000)

Success

Failure

Pursue project NPV=$2million

Stop project

NPV=0


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Real Options

1. Option to expand

2. Option to abandon

3. Timing option

4. Flexible production facilities


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

+150(.6)

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

+50(.4)

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

-150

0

or

Turboprop

Piston


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

+150(.6)

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

+50(.4)

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

-150

0

or

812

456

660

364

148

Turboprop

Piston


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

+150(.6)

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

+50(.4)

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

-150

0

or

812

456

660

364

148 81220.22080.960

Turboprop

Piston


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Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

-150

0

or

812

456

660

364

148

+150(.6)

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

+50(.4)

*450

331

45015010.1

660 450150

10.1

660

Turboprop

Piston


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Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

-150

0

or

812

456

660

364

148

+150(.6)

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

+50(.4)

NPV=444.55

NPV=888.18

NPV=550.00

NPV=184.55

*450

331

18.88815010.1

812 18.888150

10.1

812

Turboprop

Piston


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

812

456

660

364

148

+150(.6)

710.73

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

403.82

+50(.4)

-150

0

*450

331

or

NPV=444.55

NPV=888.18

NPV=550.00

NPV=184.55

-550

NPV= ?

-250

NPV= ?

40.55.44460.18.888 40.55.44460.18.888

Turboprop

Piston


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

812

456

660

364

148

+150(.6)

710.73

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

403.82

+50(.4)

-550

NPV=96.12

-250

NPV=117.00

-150

0

*450

331

or

NPV=444.55

NPV=888.18

NPV=550.00

NPV=184.55

12.9655010.1

73.710 12.96550

10.1

73.710

Turboprop

Piston


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McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Decision Trees

960 (.8)

220(.2)

930(.4)

140(.6)

800(.8)

100(.2)

410(.8)

180(.2)

220(.4)

100(.6)

812

456

660

364

148

+150(.6)

710.73

+30(.4)

+100(.6)

403.82

+50(.4)

-550

NPV=96.12

-250

NPV=117.00

-150

0

*450

331

or

NPV=444.55

NPV=888.18

NPV=550.00

NPV=184.55

Turboprop

Piston


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Web Resources

www.jaxworks.com

www.decisioneering.com

www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/myerson

Click to access web sitesClick to access web sites

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