Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability.
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Transcript of Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability.
Chapter 10Chapter 10
Population, Resources, and Population, Resources, and SustainabilitySustainability
Key QuestionsKey Questions
How is population size affected by the How is population size affected by the number of males and females at each age number of males and females at each age level?level?
How can population growth be slowed?How can population growth be slowed?What success have India and China had in What success have India and China had in
slowing population growth?slowing population growth?How can global population growth be How can global population growth be
reduced?reduced?
How is Population Size Affected by How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?Birth and Death Rates?
Population size depends on: births, deaths, and Population size depends on: births, deaths, and migrationmigration
Population change = (births + immigration) – Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)(deaths + emigration)
When births and immigration are When births and immigration are more more than than deaths and emigration, population is deaths and emigration, population is growinggrowing
When deaths and emigration are When deaths and emigration are moremore than than births and immigration, population is decliningbirths and immigration, population is declining
How Do We Find Birth and Death How Do We Find Birth and Death Rates?Rates?
Crude birth rateCrude birth rate: number of live births : number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a per 1,000 people in a population in a yearyear
Crude death rateCrude death rate: number of deaths : number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a per 1,000 people in a population in a yearyear
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developedcountries
All developingcountries
Developingcountries
(w/o China)
21
9
11
10
24
8
29
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Some FactsSome Facts
Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more babies are added to the world’s populationbabies are added to the world’s population
More births are occurring than deathsMore births are occurring than deathsWe share the earth’s resources with We share the earth’s resources with
216,000 216,000 moremore people each day people each dayEquivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400 Equivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400
new passengers every 2.7 minutes!new passengers every 2.7 minutes!
Calculate the World’s Annual Calculate the World’s Annual Population ChangePopulation Change
Annual rate of population change (%) = Annual rate of population change (%) = birth rate – death ratebirth rate – death rate x 100 x 100
1,000 people1,000 people
= = birth rate – death ratebirth rate – death rate
1010
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data notavailable
Annual worldpopulation growth
MapMap
An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may seem small, but it adds about 79 million seem small, but it adds about 79 million people per year to the world’s population!people per year to the world’s population!
Equivalent to adding a New York City Equivalent to adding a New York City every month!every month!
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gro
wth
rat
e (p
erce
nt)
Po
pu
lation
in b
illion
s
Year
Less developed countries
More developed countries
World’s 10 Most Populous World’s 10 Most Populous CountriesCountries
China and India together make up 37% of China and India together make up 37% of the world’s populationthe world’s population
The US has the 3The US has the 3rdrd largest population, but largest population, but only 4.6% of the world’s peopleonly 4.6% of the world’s people
© 2
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Bro
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Th
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India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Russia
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
2002 2025
1.28 billion1.5 billion
1 billion1.4 billion
288 million
346 million
217 million282 million
174 million
219 million
144 million
242 million
144 million129 million
134 million
178 million
127 million
121 million
130 million205 million
How have Global Fertility Rates How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?Changed?
1. 1. Replacement fertilityReplacement fertility: number of : number of children a couple must have to replace children a couple must have to replace themselvesthemselves
Slightly higher than 2 in Slightly higher than 2 in developed developed countries and 2.5 in most countries and 2.5 in most developing developing countries countries
Reason? Some female children die before Reason? Some female children die before reproductive yearsreproductive years
How have Global Fertility Rates How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?Changed?
2. 2. Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate: estimate of the : estimate of the average number of children a female will average number of children a female will have during her childbearing yearshave during her childbearing years
TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950
World
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
NorthAmerica
Europe
5 children per women2.8
2.5
1.6
6.53.1
6.65.2
5.92.7
5.92.6
3.82.5
3.52.1
2.61.4
1950 2002
© 2
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32
30
2826242220181614
0Bir
ths
pe
r th
ou
sa
nd
po
pu
lati
on
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Demographictransition
Depression
End of World War II
Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom
U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply because…because…
Demographic transitionDemographic transition: :
Industrialization and urbanizationIndustrialization and urbanization
Educated women working outside homeEducated women working outside home
THEN,THEN,
Baby Boom PeriodBaby Boom Period: after WW1: after WW1
Echo Boom PeriodEcho Boom Period: people born during baby : people born during baby boom started having childrenboom started having children
What Factors Affect Birth Rates?What Factors Affect Birth Rates?
Importance of children as part of labor forceImportance of children as part of labor force UrbanizationUrbanization Cost of raising childrenCost of raising children Employment opportunities for womenEmployment opportunities for women Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate Average age at marriageAverage age at marriage Availability of abortionsAvailability of abortions Availability of birth controlAvailability of birth control Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural normsReligious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
What Factors Affect Death Rates?What Factors Affect Death Rates?
Food supply and distributionFood supply and distributionNutritionNutritionImprovements in medical technologyImprovements in medical technologyImprovements in sanitization and Improvements in sanitization and
personal hygienepersonal hygieneSafer water suppliesSafer water supplies
Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy
Average number of years a newborn infant Average number of years a newborn infant can be expected to livecan be expected to live
In the world’s poorest countries, life In the world’s poorest countries, life expectancy is 55 years or less.expectancy is 55 years or less.
High infant mortality rate = not enough High infant mortality rate = not enough food, malnutrition, or high infectious food, malnutrition, or high infectious diseasesdiseases
United States Mexico Canada
Population(2002)
Projected population(2025)
346 million
Infant mortality rate
Lifeexpectancy
Total fertilityrate (TFR)
% populationunder age 15
% populationover age 65
Per capitaGNI PPP
288 million102 million
31 million
132 million36 million
6.625
5.3
2.12.9
1.5
21%33%
19%
13%
13%5%
$8,790
77 years75 years
79 years
$34,110
$27,170
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Infant Mortality and Birth RatesInfant Mortality and Birth Rates
U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate of any developed country. of any developed country.
Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become pregnant and 253,000 have abortionspregnant and 253,000 have abortions
Babies born to teenage mothers usually Babies born to teenage mothers usually have have low birth weightlow birth weight which causes infant which causes infant mortality.mortality.
What Are Age Structure Diagrams?What Are Age Structure Diagrams?
Age structureAge structure: the proportion of the : the proportion of the population at each age levelpopulation at each age level
Plot percentages of males and females Plot percentages of males and females in the population in each of in the population in each of 3 categories3 categories::
1.1. PrereproductivePrereproductive: ages 0-14: ages 0-14
2.2. ReproductiveReproductive: ages 15-44: ages 15-44
3.3. PostreproductivePostreproductive: ages 45 and up: ages 45 and up
Male Female
Rapid GrowthGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Slow GrowthUnited States
AustraliaCanada
Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece
Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden
Male Female Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male Female
Population (millions)
Ag
e
Developed Countries
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
85+
80-85
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male Female
Population (millions)
Ag
e
Developing Countries
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Population(2002)
Populationprojected
(2025)
Infantmortality
rate
Lifeexpectancy
Fertilityrate (TFR)
%Populationunder
age 15
% Populationover
age 65
Per capitaGNI PPP
(2000)
288 million174 million
130 million
346 million219 million
205 million
6.833
75
77 years
69 years52 years
2.12.2
5.8
21%33%
44%
13%5%
3%
$34,100$7,300
$800
United States (highly developed)
Brazil (moderately developed)
Nigeria (less developed)
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
What Are Some Effects of What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Reduced Population Decline from Reduced
Fertility?Fertility?
As the % of people over 60 increases, more As the % of people over 60 increases, more countries will experience population declinescountries will experience population declines
By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. Rapid population decline can lead to serious Rapid population decline can lead to serious
economic and social problemseconomic and social problems
ExampleExample: older people consume a large part of : older people consume a large part of medical care, Social Security, and other services medical care, Social Security, and other services funded by taxpayersfunded by taxpayers
labor shortageslabor shortages
What Are Some Effects of What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Rise in Population Decline from Rise in
Death Rates?Death Rates? Sharp drop in life expectancySharp drop in life expectancy Loss of most productive young adult workersLoss of most productive young adult workers Sharp rise in number of orphansSharp rise in number of orphans
We need to:We need to:
1.1. Reduce the spread of HIVReduce the spread of HIV
2.2. Provide debt relief and financial assistanceProvide debt relief and financial assistance
3.3. Send volunteer teachers and social workersSend volunteer teachers and social workers
Is the World Overpopulated?Is the World Overpopulated?
Is it Is it alreadyalready overpopulated? overpopulated?What should we do to stop population What should we do to stop population
growth?growth?What is the What is the optimum sustainable optimum sustainable
populationpopulation??No one knows!No one knows!
One ViewpointOne Viewpoint
The world can support billions more The world can support billions more peoplepeople
People are the world’s most valuable People are the world’s most valuable resource for solving problems and resource for solving problems and stimulating economic growth by being stimulating economic growth by being consumersconsumers
Population regulation is a violation of Population regulation is a violation of personal freedompersonal freedom
An Opposing ViewpointAn Opposing Viewpoint
We already fail to provide the basic We already fail to provide the basic necessities to 1 out of 5 people todaynecessities to 1 out of 5 people today
If we do not take measures to drop the If we do not take measures to drop the birth rate, we are increasing the death ratebirth rate, we are increasing the death rate
We greatly increase environmental harmWe greatly increase environmental harm
Stages of Development in Stages of Development in Countries Countries
PreindustrialPreindustrial: very little population growth : very little population growth due to harsh living conditionsdue to harsh living conditions
TransitionalTransitional: industrialization begins; food : industrialization begins; food production rises and health care improves; production rises and health care improves; population grows rapidlypopulation grows rapidly
IndustrialIndustrial: birth rate drops; population : birth rate drops; population growth slowsgrowth slows
PostindustrialPostindustrial: birth rate declines; zero : birth rate declines; zero population growthpopulation growth
How Do We Cut Global Population How Do We Cut Global Population Growth?Growth?
Family planningFamily planningEmpowering women: women have fewer Empowering women: women have fewer
and healthier children when they have and healthier children when they have access to education and paying jobs AND access to education and paying jobs AND when they live in societies with rightswhen they live in societies with rights
Reduce povertyReduce poverty