Chapter 1: VULNERABLE CITIES

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Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam

DRAFT -- 20 December 2010

Table of Contents

List of Acronymsiii

1.Introduction1

1.1Objective of this paper1

1.2The scope and structure of this paper2

2.Climate change and urban policy challenges3

2.1Climate change policy3

2.2Urban development policy4

2.3Migration policy5

2.4International climate change policy and cooperation6

2.5Policy recommendations9

3.Urban climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation9

3.1Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam9

Climate change scenarios9

Climate change primary effects10

3.2Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration14

Vulnerable people and living places14

Migration to towns and cities15

Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development16

3.3Urban economies at risk17

Climate change threats to economic development17

Climate change threats to urban infrastructure18

Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation21

Urban planning21

3.4Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation22

Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination23

Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience23

Strengthen urban planning24

Enable migrants’ livelihoods and reduce their vulnerabilities24

Climate proofing of infrastructure25

Strengthen economic analysis and investment decisions25

4.Low carbon urban development needs and opportunities26

4.1Urbanization and economic growth26

Cities are growth engines26

Sustaining urban growth27

4.2Urban greenhouse gas emissions28

Low carbon urban development potential28

Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions29

4.3Developing low carbon, clean cities31

Urban planning and GHG emissions mitigation31

Fiscal measures and international finance for low carbon urban development32

4.4Recommendations: mitigation of urban GHG emissions33

5.Urban development challenges36

5.1The urban sprawl in Viet Nam36

5.2Urban planning in Viet Nam37

5.3Urban planning and climate change39

6.Summary of conclusions and recommendations42

AnnexExamples of urbanization and climate change adaptation challenges43

Case 1Gaps in Drainage Infrastructure and Inconsistent Maintenance43

Case 2Phu My Hung: Infill in Flood Prone areas Transfers Risk43

Case 3Illegal Encroachment Reduces Lakes and Open Spaces43

Case 4District 2, HCMC: Ad Hoc Approach to Climate Proofing44

Case 5Ineffective Land Use In Peri-Urban Areas Affects Absorption Capacity44

Case 6Poorly Coordinated Plans Undermine Development Controls44

Case 7Unplanned Areas Lack Adaptive Design and Infrastructure44

Case 8“Hard” Adaptation Can Lead to the Transfer of Risks44

Case 9Poor Data Sharing and Spatial Analysis Deprives Planners of a Key Tool45

References46

Endnotes48

List of Acronyms

AWG-LCAAd hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (under UNFCCC)

BAU business as usual

CDM Clean Development Mechanism (under the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC)

COPConference of Parties (of the UNFCCC)

EEenergy efficiency

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

GHG greenhouse gas

LCDSLow-Carbon Development Strategy

LECZ Low Elevation Coastal Zone (less than 10m above mean sea level)

MARDMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Development

MICs Middle Income Countries

MOCMinistry of Construction

MOF Ministry of Finance

MOITMinistry of Industry and Trade

MONREMinistry of Natural Resources and Environment

MOST Ministry of Science and Technology

MOTMinistry of Transportation

MPIMinistry of Planning and Investment

NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

NAP National Adaptation Plan

NTP-RCC National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change

RE renewable energy

REDD Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation

SEDP Social Economic Development Plan (2011-2015)

SEDS Social Economic Development Strategy (2011-2020)

UNFCCCUN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Urbanization and climate change in Viet Nam

Climate change and urban development in Viet Nam – DRAFT 20 Dec 2010

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Introduction

“As a country that would be worst affected by climate change due to its long coastline that harbors a series of economic zones and large populations….we are fully aware of the grave challenges that climate change is and will pose to our people and country.” Speech by President Nguyen Minh Triet, UN Summit on Climate Change, September 2009.

“Viet Nam will only have one chance to get urbanization right. If we fail at urbanization, we will fail at industrialization and modernization.” Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh Hung National Urban Conference (November 6-7, 2009).

1.1Objective of this paper

Viet Nam is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Many cities are located in coastal zones that are prone to sea level rise and tropical storms, and there are other climatic stresses. Climate change causes worse droughts, stresses on water supply, and heavier rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, urban development is reducing water storage capacities of cities: storm-flood problems are worsening for several reasons, and now includes climate change.

Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta, with many cities and towns, are particularly vulnerable to such climate change effects, as well as coastal towns and cities such as industrialising Danang and historic Hoi An. Within towns and cities, poor neighbourhoods and disadvantaged population groups are especially vulnerable. The main climatic hazards as well as lesser but repeated climatic stresses affect disadvantaged women, children, elderly, employees, and people making their living in the informal sector, including many migrants. Their numbers are increasing with enhanced rural to urban migration because of climatic stresses. City planners, utilities, and social and livelihood support services and programmes must therefore take climate change vulnerabilities into account.

Cities are engines of growth and innovation, as Viet Nam is urbanising and industrialising. But economic growth is increasingly under threat of calamities. The annual costs of natural disasters in Viet Nam have been estimated as more than 1 percent of annual GDP already[endnoteRef:1]. Furthermore, the effects of climate change limit hydroelectricity generation as Viet Nam is under pressure from exceptionally dry rainy seasons that leave lakes below capacity[endnoteRef:2]. [1: Harmeling, 2010, shows this for the period 1990-2009 [get also a ref from MARD disasters papers]] [2: This caused blackouts in 2009 and 2010, whereas major hydroelectric lakes remain under capacity at the end of the rainy season of 2010]

Growth goes with rapid increase in the use of energy including fossil fuels, and air and water pollution. The intense use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, transport and production is associated with increased respiratory diseases. In particular coal is a cheap and available fuel for expanded electricity generation (which is critical for cities) and industrial production, which is a cause of air pollution, especially in cities.

Viet Nam is not obliged by international law to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but by global agreement it is expected to make all efforts possible[endnoteRef:3]. Indeed, there are possibilities for expansion of renewable energy generation as well as for improving energy efficiency in manufacturing, transport and buildings, and that are economic whilst they may have co-benefits such as improved air quality. [3: See for example the “Cancun Agreements”, reached in late 2010 under the Conference of Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), particularly “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16, available on http://unfccc.int/2860.php )]

Climate change is a call for accelerating good development policy and practice[endnoteRef:4]. Without additional action the risks for economic losses, social disruption and environmental degradation are rapidly increasing. In addition, domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) can enhance energy efficiency and drive renewable energy generation, and create export opportunities, as most (technological) innovation takes root in cities. With the right policies, services and investments, climate change actions can thus deliver multiple benefits. [4: UN - Viet Nam, 2009a]

It is important for Viet Nam “to get urbanization right” as stated by Deputy PM Nguyen Sinh Hung National Urban Conference (November 6-7, 2009). This study aims to draw out the main policy questions for Viet Nam in the short and long term future of urban development in the context of climate change, and recommend policy directions.

1.2The scope and structure of this paper

This paper addresses climate change effects and the appropriate responses for moving towards climate change resilient cities, as well as low carbon development opportunities that can deliver economic, social and environmental benefits. It analysis the main challenges in Vietnamese towns and cities and draws on international experiences, in particular for suggesting ways forward.

Chapter 2 addresses policy challenges, including current climate change policy, urban development policy and migration policy, and what is needed for this to contribute to climate resilient cities and low carbon sustainable development. It also discusses the international context, in which certain policy instruments for international financial and technological support have been agreed. This addresses how technical cooperation and international partnerships outside the formal UN climate change process that can benefit cities and towns in Viet Nam.

In chapter 3 a range of urban development challenges are discussed in the context of climate change stresses on infrastructure, services and people, with specific attention to the most vulnerable people and urban economies. This includes climate change risks and vulnerabilities; a broad assessment of capacities and awareness of enterprises, local government, communities and households; possible social, economic and environmental climate change impacts; and priorities for adaptive action and investment (including monitoring, learning and adjustment).

Chapter 4 discusses the consequences for Viet Nam of the global need to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the opportunities for, as well as local benefits from promoting low carbon development in towns and cities. It addresses opportunities for strategic policy actions in the public sphere, and ways to enable and encourage the private sector to create and take opportunities for low carbon development, with domestic as well as international finance.

In chapter 5 the general approach to urban development is analysed, and specifically urban planning systems and practices within the context of climate change. This recommends an approach to city planning that is strategic, flexible, and action oriented. It also discusses priorities for policy action to enhance the opportunities that cities have for moving towards climate resilient and low carbon development paths.

Chapter 6 summarises the conclusions and recommendations.

Climate change and urban policy challenges

“It is essential to enhance cooperation in response to global challenges like climate change, food and energy security, environmental degradation, natural disasters and diseases” – HE Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, ASEAN summit

"At present, choosing the place, shape and infrastructure for new urban areas depends on the inspiration of investors," Pham Sy Liem, Director of the Urban Research and Infrastructure Development Institute[endnoteRef:5] [5: Article in Vietnam News [ref?]]

“Developed countries and those having a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions have a responsibility in supporting developing countries, especially those suffered the most from climate change and sea level rise (including Viet Nam), by new financial mechanisms, technological transfer, the adaptation fund and capacity-building in climate change adaptation.” HE Pham Khoi Nguyen, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, press conference after COP15

2.1Climate change policy

Viet Nam has reinforced its policy framework since the magnitude of the climate change challenge became clear to the world[endnoteRef:6]. It issued the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC) in 2008[endnoteRef:7]. Currently many sector ministries, provinces and city authorities are formulating their Action Plans to respond to climate change, under the NTP-RCC. Climate change scenarios (scientific predictions of climate change and basic effects such as sea level rise) have been produced by MONRE, and local departments are using these data to formulate their Action Plans. [6: IPCC, 2007; UNDP, 2007 [full ref in list of references]] [7: Prime Minister Decision 158/2008/QĐ-TTg, 2 December 2008 ]

Guiding Principles of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change [check]

1) Response to climate change should follow the principles of sustainable development, integration, sector/inter-sector, and region/interregional;

2) Activities responding to climate change must be carried out with clear focuses to effectively respond to immediate impacts as well as potential long-term impacts; the NTP is developed on the principle that proposed projects must be immediately implemented. Investment is considered economically effective in terms of mitigation of [????].

3) Response to climate change is the responsibility of the whole political system; society; sectors, organizations at all levels; communities and every individual. Response to climate change is a global, regional and national issue;

4) Climate change issues must be integrated into development strategies, plans, planning at all sectors and levels; into strategic environmental assessment, legal documents and policy institutions; into legal documents development and implementation;

5) Following the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” as defined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Viet Nam will successfully implement climate change response program if it receives sufficient finance and technology transfer from developed countries as well as other international funding sources.

Viet Nam also has a National Target Programme on Economical and Efficient Use of Energy (NTP-EE, 2006[endnoteRef:8]). And Viet Nam has policies on urban development, sustainable development, water supply, electricity generation, and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), which all have a bearing on the climate change challenges. [8: Prime Minister Decision 79/2006/QĐ-TTg, 14 April 2006 ]

Viet Nam has chosen to base planning to respond to climate change on a medium IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenario, which leads to predictions of 30 cm mean sea level rise by 2050 (compared to the period 1980-1990).[endnoteRef:9] 129 out of total 752 country’s urban centres are located at the coast with total population 7 million in 2008.[endnoteRef:10] [these data are different from similar data in other parts of the text, based on different references: what to believe?] For example, the Ministry of Construction (MOC) is developing a proposal on coastal urban development in the context of sea level rise [ref?]. Several urban pilot projects, most notably ACCCRN, the World Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities, and the MegaCity Project, have begun assessment and planning in some of Viet Nam’s most vulnerable cites.[endnoteRef:11] The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) is studying issues of flooding in rural and also urban areas. [9: MoNRE ] [10: MOC] [11: ACCCRN, the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, has pilot projects in Can Tho, Da Nang, and Quy Nhon with local DoNREs; see http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/what-we-do/current-work/developing-climate-change-resilience/asian-cities-climate-change-resilience . The World Bank’s Climate Resilient Cities Projects has written an Action Plan for Hanoi together with DoNRE [contact?]. The MegaCities Project is currently active in HCMC [contact?].]

Although Viet Nam’s carbon dioxide emissions remain low and it internationally not obligated to reduce emissions, it is important to take effective measures to mitigate GHG emissions now as the world needs all countries to act and there may be several additional benefits to Viet Nam. The NTP-RCC also addresses mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including: “(i) Apply technologies which allow lower emission amount than currently used one in all socio-economic activities; and (ii) Develop policies and management methods available to implement the objectives to increase greenhouse gas sinks.”[endnoteRef:12] Although there are no detailed policy directives for reducing GHG emissions in urban areas, mitigation opportunities are closely linked with national energy policies.[endnoteRef:13] The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has already finalised its Action Plan to respond to climate change, which will help the country limit its growth in GHG emissions from industry and electricity generation. [12: National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. [????]Resolution No. 60/2007/Nq-Cp, p. 39-40 ] [13: Ibid [never use this in automated notes: give the actual ref]]

[in this section there should be minimally a reference to disaster risks reduction policies that have relevance to vulnerability reduction, resilience creation at the grassroots / community level]

2.2Urban development policy

The Government has set out a strong and renewed emphasis on Viet Nam’s urban transition. The objective is to develop and strengthen a ‘national urban system’ comprised of urban centres of various scales and types, distributed across the country.

Over the last two decades, Viet Nam has been following a pro-growth urban development policy. From the urban development guideline policy in 1998 to the revised version in 2009, the urban growth target remains high (3% to 4% per year), up to 2025 and 2050. Together with a high growth rate, the quality of growth should be ensured as stated by the Prime Minister last year:

‘From 2010 to 2025, we should ‘establish and complete the Viet Nam urban system in the form of network cities; having appropriate, advanced, and adequate social and physical structure; sound environment and living quality; advanced architecture and rich cultural feature; competitive in the national and regional areas, contributed to development and protection of the nation’[endnoteRef:14]. [14: Prime Minister, 2009, p.2 [ref?]]

The Prime Minister has issued a decision on the Adjusted Orientation of Master Plan for Development of Urban System of Viet Nam toward 2025 and Vision toward 2050[endnoteRef:15]. The objectives of this orientation are to gradually develop a network of urban centres throughout the country, with suitable, integrated, modern technical and social infrastructure, good environment and good quality of life, advanced architecture with national identity, and high competitiveness. The strategic vision for the urban system and technical infrastructure includes the following: [15: Decision No. 445/QĐ-TTg dated 07/04/2009]

· The national urban network in the period of 2025-2050 will be modern and industrialized with a focus on services and tourism development;

· Viet Nam will have international level urban centres that play a role in global urban networks;

· Viet Nam will become a strategic destination for regional and global tourism and services, as urban development is linked with the coastal, island, border economy;

· There will be regional development axes, including border corridors, coastal zones and North-South, East-West corridor axes;

· Regions and urban centres will increase their competitiveness by improving regional management, and developing industrial zones, ports, service areas in strategic regions.

· Local culture and tourism development will be promoted;

· A national management system of environment and urban development developed; land management will be strengthened; people will have a comfortable living environment ; water supply for urban centres of class V and rural areas will be ensured;

· A national transport and communication network will be promoted, with regional transport networks and that will be connected later to the national network, increasing Viet Nam’s role as a hub for South-East Asia and Asia.

However, there is lack of vision and strategic direction in most Vietnamese cities. Most do not take climate change adaptation or mitigation of GHG emissions into consideration in their urban planning and construction. Urban development in Viet Nam has a high degree of informality resulting in ad hoc development [the meaning of this must be explained, and the evidence]. Improving informal developments is significantly more expensive [because ...?], and is socially and legally challenging. For example, new residential estates and industrial parks are still often planned in low lying and flood prone areas.

[there is a need to discuss governance and especially democracy policies here, laying the grounds for grass roots and civil society participation in chapter 3 in particular. Also important is to refer to gender policies, social security / protection policies and how those are especially relevant to reducing vulnerabilities. In addition, industrial and transport p[olicies impact on cities, especially as regards GHG emissions, and must also be mentioned]

2.3Migration policy

Historically, national policy was to strictly controlled rural to urban migration using a system a household registration (ho khau). While this system has been relaxed and modified in recent years, migrants still struggle to attain permanent resident status and access urban services. Incentives are still in place to encourage rural residents to stay in their home districts. Migrants who take up temporary residence in urban areas experience restricted access to basic services – e.g. health, education,[endnoteRef:16] and their ability to by real estate is also restructed. [16: Kundu, Amitabh. Urbanisation and Migration: An Analysis of Trend, Pattern and Policies in Asia. Human Development Research Paper. April 2009. [publisher?]]

Of the 1.8 million migrants living in HCMC, 87% of these temporary residents have KT-4 status - registered as individuals without a family - which prohibits them from owning land.[endnoteRef:17] Many KT-4 residents live in private residential boarding houses. Other migrants are not registered at all and often live at the building site in self made (wooden) structures or in the unfinished building without any sanitary facilities. Applying for a more permanent resident status, such as KT-1 or KT-2, is challenging for many migrants who lack stable and permanent jobs in the formal sector and do not have documents to prove their legal housing status. [endnoteRef:18] [the registration classification must be explained, eg in a box] [17: Waibel Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date?]] [18: Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date?]]

Cities face needs for relocation within cities, as residents avoid flood prone areas, and inbound migration from rural areas.[endnoteRef:19] Seasonal migration, which currently accounts for a large percentage of migrants in the Mekong Delta,[endnoteRef:20] is also likely to increase as agriculture is negatively affected by climate change and sea level rise apart from economic transition processes that are already ibn motion. These migrants search for safe and affordable accommodation in cities but some are over-crowed, over-priced, and unwelcoming for unregistered migrants. [19: Garschagen, Matthias. “Urban Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam – Institutional Challenges and Research Agenda.” Bonn: UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security [full ref in list? I think our text should not talk of the misused term “climate refugees” and I have deleted that]] [20: United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Report on “Human security, climate change, and environmentally induced migration” (version 30 May 2008) [correct ref in list?]]

While policy changes could help migrants to increase their resilience especially when compared to their situation in sending areas, good planning is needed so that migrants can be fully included in the urban fabric. Urban planning – particularly around industrial zones - must take account of the spatial patterns of migrant communities and their vulnerabilities. Recognizing these communities and working with community groups will help identify local adaptation measures. [this is a recommendation – to chapter 3? To section 2.5?].

National policy aims to limit migration to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and develop secondary towns and cities. This can be achieved with social housing in those towns and cities, stimulating their economies, simplify migrant registration procedures, etc. [this is repeated in vulnerability chapter recs, chapter 3]

2.4International climate change policy and cooperation

Viet Nam is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and has ratified the Kyoto Protocol (KP). By these agreements Viet Nam would be defined as particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, making it eligible for support from developed nations. As a developing country it is not obliged to support “domestic actions” for mitigation of GHG emissions, but it is also eligible for support from developed countries to do so.

In the agreements in Cancun, Mexico (December 2010) the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCC did agree on a range of mechanisms and instruments that will help enhance implementation of such internationally supported adaptation and mitigation actions. These agreements are not very specific on the role of local authorities, businesses and indeed cities in this regard, but it is clear that cities and towns must play a core role in implementation.

International financial support and technology transfer for climate change responses is likely to increase significantly in the coming years and decades, whilst Viet Nam’s regular ODA may reduce as it now has reached Middle Income Country (MIC) status. The result is expected to be that a significant share of total ODA to Viet Nam thus be climate change focused.

However, it is also expected that international climate finance will not cover all the financial needs and that significant domestic and private sector financing will be required for both climate change adaptation and GHG mitigation actions. This also means that international finance must be strategically used, especially for technical assistance and capacity building, and for pilot investments that test new and innovative approaches. Some developing countries have also stepped up their “partnership approaches” with Viet Nam, meaning that as they reduce ODA they increase scientific and technical exchanges between a range of specialised organisations, for example in water management.

Climate change response capacities of a city include technical and financial capabilities of the local government and key stakeholders. It is clear from recent assessments that this is lacking at municipal levels, especially for adaptation [endnoteRef:21]. Therefore, new mechanisms must be developed to coordinate stakeholders, increase technical capacity and channel international financial support to build capacities, build climate proof infrastructure and increase resilience. Internationally it is now agreed that developing countries will develop national adaptation plans (NAPs) as the basis for prioritised adaptation actions, including identification of what would be internationally supported with finance and technology transfer[endnoteRef:22]. [21: ACCRN and Megacities project both identified these constraints [ref?]] [22: See “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)]

Well coordinated efforts at energy efficiency improvement and GHG emissions mitigation in Viet Nam’s cities is critical, as many measures potentially economic, environmental and also social co-benefits for producers and residents. In this area there are many possibilities for involving the private sector through different measures including fiscal policy and public-private partnerships (PPPs), incentives for private sector action, elimination of market distortions, and significant flows of finance. [this is or should lead to a recommendation in this section or the final section of this chapter]

The international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC also reached basic agreement on the formulation and registration of NAMAs, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions[endnoteRef:23]. NAMAs are expected to be programmatic documents for, for example, industrial subsectors (nationwide) and for towns and cities as geographic units with large potential to reduce emissions. Once submitted to a (to be established) central register access to different new and existing financial sources and technological cooperation should be enabled. [one rec here or in the final section of this chapter is to urgently explore / develop NAMAs, for cities and towns and sub-sectors of industry] [23: See also “Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” (Draft decision -/CP.16)]

The NTP-RCC and the Action Plans to respond to climate change that are currently being developed by sector ministries and municipal authorities, and the planned formulation of a national climate change strategy are important building blocks for developing detailed, fundable, practical and above all prioritised adaptation actions (under the NAP) and NAMAs for international assistance with potentially major benefits to Viet Nam’s towns and cities.

There are also processes ongoing with potentially important benefits from international cooperation. Specifically on climate change there are several international networks of towns and cities that are facilitating technical exchanges and learning and also financing of capacity building and investments on increasing climate resilience of towns and cities and moving whole cities towards carbon neutrality – this is mostly outside the formal international policy process of the UNFCCC.

[Here we need explanations of the role and climate change relevant actions coordinated/ stimulated by ICLEI, Mayors ....also ACCCRN etc and mention some of the towns and cities of Viet Nam that have strarted to take part. This will lead to a recommendation for the national association of towns and cities and individuals towns and cities to step up their international city-to city cooperation and become more active in taking part in networks. Recommendations here or in final section of this chapter?]

[the following is a recommendation, which before my editing appeared to be cut and paste from an international paper .... should it be here or in the final section of this chapter?

Climate change cuts across all parts of government, there is a need for involving not only MONRE and related offices, but also MPI, MOF. Addressing climate change requires leadership at the highest level of government, and indeed the Prime Minister is chairing the national steering committee that oversees the NTP-RCC and other climate change policy. Critical is strong coordination including central government–local authority coordination to encourage local (city, town) adaptation actions, and to strengthen local capacity in planning and implementing initiatives addressing climate change.]

Table [...] Initiatives on Climate Change Responses in Cities in Viet Nam [If this table is maintained it should be made more meaningful in explaining different international networks and opportunities for int cooperation, and be referred to in the text. It is now about a small sample of internationally supported projects, which is not so meaningful and always outdated – we need an indication of what cities can link to and take part in for responding to climate change challenges.]

Initiative

Participation

Purpose

Contents

Hanoi and Can Tho -Local Resilience Action Plans (2010)

LRAP Team: DONRE (head), DARD (vice head), DOC, Hanoi PC, DPI, DCST, DPA, DoST, DoT, World Bank

Build the capacity of the city to prepare for and proactively respond to multiple natural disasters including climate change via a comprehensive and holistically built LRAP.

- Vulnerability assessment based on spatial analysis and stakeholder consultation,

- Inventory of national and local plans and programs that may affect vulnerabilities and resilience,

- Identify applicable adaptation and disaster risk management measures

- Define priorities among those actions and provide a city action plan on how to implement those priority actions. (1) (2)

Can Tho, Quy Nhon and Da Nang -ACCCRN – Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network

Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Department of Foreign Affairs and, in Can Tho, The Centre for Natural Resource and Environment Monitoring(CENREM)

International partners: the Rockefeller Foundation, ISET, Challenge to Change, ARUP

Assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities, development of strategies and pilot project implementation

Phases:

1) City scoping and selection (identifying partners and vulnerabilities)

2) City-level engagement (Shared Learning Dialogues with key stakeholders and capacity development)

3) Implementation of urban resilience projects

4) Replication (networking, monitoring and leveraging additional funds)

HCMC- cc impacts and adaptation analysis (2008)

ADB, Ho Chi Minh City

- Assessment of the “direct” impacts on economic assets, social variables, environmental assets and environmental quality

HCMC - Megacity Project (2008-2013)

…

Strategies to promote sustainable urban development adapted to climate change

Strategies to increase the resilience and adaptive capacity of the urban system of HCMC

- Development of sustainable housing policies

- Development of adaptation planning framework, incl. sustainability indicator framework, spatial urban and environmental planning information system, spatial vulnerability and impact assessment, identification and appraisal of options for adaptation, administrative integration and environmental governance, quality of the administrative and institutional communication practices between scientists, planners and urban authorities.

2.5Policy recommendations

[this should refer back to what is analysed / presented earlier in this chapter]

Urban climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation

[This chapter should use more data from eg documents by Rockefeller/NISTPAS/ISET/CtC re their three cities, and ADB re HCMC, as well as stuff on Hanoi and Haiphong from the WB. The text as it stands is also nearly gender blind, which cannot be acceptable just based on the UN-Oxfam VN paper on climate change and gender, and there must be urban development literature that shows what is critical in VN and beyond.]

3.1Urban climate change risks in Viet Nam

[this section should present climate findings, risks, and explain that the climate change stresses and shocks are additional to a large body of existing urban challenges]

Climate change scenarios

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has published a summary of observed climatic and mean sea level data over the past decades as well as the official climate change projections for Viet Nam through the 21st century. The projections were calculated for different global IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with several Global Circulation Models. The results are being used by planners and decision makers in different sectors. Some findings with relevance for the whole of the country are summarised in Figure [...].

From 1958-2007, Viet Nam experienced

· An average temperature increase of 0.5-0.7oC[endnoteRef:24] [24: Temperatures in Northern climate zones of the country increased faster than that in the South (MONRE, 2009: 4-5). ]

· An annual rainfall decrease of about 2%

· A typhoon track which moved southward and typhoon seasons which ended later

By 2100, Viet Nam will experience

· Average temperature increases of 1.6-2.8oC

· Sea Level Rise of 75cm to 1m

· Annual rainfall increase of about 5%

· Typhoons increase in frequency and severity

Source: MONRE (2009: 16)[endnoteRef:25] [25: These projections contain uncertainties, which are explained by low confidence of emission scenarios, errors of climate models, errors in the statistical downscaling method, and differences of climatic factors by location (MONRE, 2009: 17). However, these uncertainties should be no means lead to doubt the massive scale of the climate change risks and likely effects.]

Figure [...]Summary of climate change effects in Viet Nam

[There are no reasons why we should follow only the “official” medium scenario, as was done here. In fact there are only reasons to doubt the wisdom of that as the world is on a path well above the high emissions scenario that MONRE also used. The figure and the text must explain more and better the range of findings (between scenarios) from this report – see also UN factsheet mentioned in references, and propose what is the best for current urban development policy makers]

Viet Nam has chosen to base planning decisions on a medium IPCC emissions scenario and in addition have accounted for some melting of land ice (unlike IPCC, 2007), until further data become available.[endnoteRef:26] However, the world is on a path well above the medium emissions scenario used, and without major global emissions cuts in the near future the most likely result is at the upper end of the estimates for climatic changes given in the figure above, and worse. These climate change effects must be understood as increased strength and frequency of climatic hazards or shocks and additional stresses, i.e. additional to the development challenges already faced by towns and cities and their populations. [26: MONRE, 2009]

Climate change primary effects

Many cities in the coastal zone of Viet Nam are already experiencing the effects of climate change, in particular sea level rise and associated enhanced saline water intrusion, extreme rainfall with local flooding, and repeated droughts. There are also increasingly severe tropical storms in the central region although this observation is primarily based on anecdotal experience and evidence from observed data and statistical analysis is not yet conclusive. But IPCC data suggest that it is likely that such storms are becoming more severe, globally, whilst further work on changes in climatic extremes is ongoing (as distinct from the above suggested changes in averages).

It is those extremes that cause havoc, in the present and near future as well as long term future, and climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme events. Typhoons are increasing in frequency and severity, globally, and indeed tropical storms are likely to continue to get worse also in SE Asia. Several extreme weather events in Viet Nam over the past years have shed light on the vulnerability of cities to extreme weather. Typhoons historically hit the central cities of Hue and Danang but are now also affecting south-central cities, such as Quy Nhon and Nha Trang. According to a recent report Viet Nam ranks 5th in the world in terms of impacts of climate-related natural disasters over the period 1990-2009, with an index made up principally of the death toll and economic losses[endnoteRef:27]. [27: Harmeling, 2010]

Typhoons and the Cost of Damage

Over the last decade an average of six to eight typhoons (or tropical storms) have struck Viet Nam annually. For example, storm Xangsane made landfall near Danang in 2006, resulting in the evacuation of 300,000 residents from low lying areas. The storm eventually left 72 dead, injured more than 532, and cost USD 624 million in damages.[endnoteRef:28] [give another example, preferably of 2010; use CCFSC website data] [28: Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre http://www.adpc.net/v2007/Programs/UDRM/PROMISE/INFORMATION%20RESOURCES/Monthly-Enews/2006/Sep/September2006.asp [accessed when?]]

Typhoons have proved particularly damaging in urban areas where some buildings are below standard. While flooding in Viet Nam affects more people annually that storms (59% of residents affected by disasters compared with 32% for storms), approximately half of the economic damages (by total value) are caused by storms.[endnoteRef:29] [29: Disaster Risk Management Programs For Priority Countries East Asia And Pacific, p. 52 [full ref in list? Author and page here]]

The World Bank estimates the annual cost of damage for all natural disasters over the last 20 years at 900 million USD per year (approximately 1% of GDP [PPP or not?]). The worst years have seen damages over 3 billion USD.[endnoteRef:30] [30: Weathering the Storm: Options for Disaster Risk Financing in Vietnam. Word Bank, 2010. [full ref in list?]]

The figure below summarises the enhanced risks of climate change stresses and shocks for urban areas, with a focus on effects of vulnerable people. These climatic risks are generic but all of them also apply to the urban population in Viet Nam. Differences in vulnerabilities of certain communities and disadvantaged groups depend on local circumstances and vary from city to city and town to town – some specifics in this regard are discussed in section 3.2.

Climate change effects

Risks for urban areas

Implications / risks for vulnerable people

Changes in extremes

Extreme rainfall / tropical cyclones / storm surges

· more intense flooding and higher risk of landslides

· disruption to livelihoods and city economies

· damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure

· higher levels of mortality

· higher levels of morbidity (especially among children)

· loss of income and assets (impacting mostly low-income groups)

Drought

· water shortages

· higher food and water prices

· disruption of hydro-electricity

· distress migration from rural areas

· higher prevalence of water borne / water washed diseases (particularly among children)

· food shortages (high prices) and malnutrition

Heat or cold-waves

· short-term increase in energy demands for heating / cooling

· Heat stress from heat waves (with impacts more serious in heat islands, i.e. big cities)

· mortality from extreme heat or cold, especially elderly

· reduced economic productivity

· additional expenditure

Changes in means

Temperature

· increased temperature bringing increased electricity demands for cooling, worsening of air quality; in many places also contributing to water shortages

· increased vulnerability to respiratory diseases

· young children and elderly most vulnerable

Precipitation

· increased risk of (repeated) flooding and associated pollution

· increased risk of landslides

· distress migration from rural areas

· interruption of food supply networks

· higher prevalence of water borne / water washed diseases (particularly among children)

· food shortages (high prices) and malnutrition

Sea level rise

· coastal flooding more frequent and worse

· reduced income from agriculture and tourism

· salinization of water sources

· loss of land and property

· health problems from saline water (children at highest risk)

Changes in exposure

Population movement

· movements from stressed rural habitats

· increased population

· increased stress on infrastructure and resources

Biological changes

· extended vector habitats

· increased risk of diseases such as malaria and dengue

Source: Adapted from Wilbanks et al. (2007)

Figure [...] Climate change risks in urban areas

Viet Nam faces particular difficulties in building resilience to mean sea level rise and storm surges and it ranks 6th in the world regarding the proportion of population living in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ)[endnoteRef:31]. With more than 10 million urban dwellers within the LECZ Viet Nam has among the world’s largest urban populations in this zone [what is the source of this number? I suspect this number is too low!?]. More generally, 129 out of a total 752 of the country’s urban centres are located at the coast, including Ho Chi Minh City, 3 cities of class I, 6 cities of class II, 15 cities of class III, 13 of class IV and 90 of class V [these classes must be explained / defined in an endnote]. [31: Hugo, 2008. The LECZ is the zone with elevation within 10 metres of mean sea level. ]

Many of Viet Nam’s cities and towns are developing onto unsuitable land, as the steadily increasing effects of climate change are becoming evident. In HCMC, 300,000 people are living in slums[endnoteRef:32], and it is expanding into flood prone areas (notably southwards). The average land elevation in Can Tho City is just 1 meter above mean sea level[endnoteRef:33]. Parts of downtown, for example, are inundated every day at high tide, and measurements show particularly upward trends of high tide water levels over the past decades (more pronounced than the upward trend of mean sea levels).[endnoteRef:34] But non-coastal cities are also affected by climate change, as there are climate change effects other than sea level rise. An estimated 160,000 people are living outside the Red River dyke in Hanoi, which is considered to be unofficial occupation[endnoteRef:35]. Hanoi is rapidly expanding westward and southwards into low lying areas that are vulnerable to floods.[endnoteRef:36] [32: MOC estimation, report from HCMC Land and Housing Department report, 2004 [full reference in list?]] [33: ICEM presentation, 2009 [full reference in list? And why use an ICEM presentation instead of their publication?]] [34: [see presentation at Rockefeller seminar by Can Tho PC]] [35: Calculation in 2005, based on Hanoi statistical year book [need a proper reference].] [36: HAIDEP [year? full reference in list?]]

In most cities, water bodies have been encroached upon and open space is rapidly disappearing. 21 lakes in Hanoi (or 150 ha of water space) were lost to development during the past two decades.[endnoteRef:37] Recreation space per resident is only 0.9 m2 in nine inner-city districts of Hanoi, and just 0.05 m2 in densely urbanized Hanoi districts such as Dong Da or Gia Lam.[data must be checked: recreation space in inner city Hanoi is 18 times more per capita than in Gia Lam?][endnoteRef:38] In 1980, ten spots in Ho Chi Minh City routinely flooded; today the number is nearly 200.[endnoteRef:39] To protect these and other cities from effects of climate change such as more intense rainfall and /or sea level rise will require many measures, such as very considerable investments in dykes and drainage infrastructure including water storage capacity. [37: DONRE, 2009. [full reference in list?]] [38: HAIDEP report in June 2006, Section 10-19, by Almec, Nippon Koei, and Yachiyo. [this needs proper, full reference in list]] [39: Viet Nam News. “Blocked drains cause flooding” 09/03/2010 [This reference should be in end notes not in reference list, as it is a newspaper article. However, to use newspaper references is not generally a very good idea, certainly not in Viet Nam where there is massive misreporting of numbers (journalists appear to be number blind): what is the official report where this came from?]]

The most severe climate change effects that Viet Nam’s cities face include rising temperature and heat waves. Cities are especially vulnerable to increased temperature, and can become “urban heat islands”, areas that could typically be 4oC warmer than surrounding vegetated areas. Central HCMC can be up to 10oC warmer than surrounding rural areas.[endnoteRef:40] This effect is compounded by air pollution, which reduces the release of heat at night. Green spaces and water bodies, which help cool cities, make up a relatively small percentage of urban space in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. [40: Harry Storch, Nigel Downes, Kiduk Moon, [full ref in list?] citing Tran Thi Van 2004; Ho Tong Minh Dinh et al., 2006/ Le Van Trung et al., 2006.]

As the environment becomes warmer and wetter there is increased risk of infectious disease vectors which can cause epidemics, and heat-wave related deaths. Climate change may magnify health hazards and other environmental burdens of a city, especially in tropical cities like Viet Nam’s wherein disease vectors are active and highly evolutionary[endnoteRef:41]. Flooding in Viet Nam’s cities often leads to pollution and the release of wastewater and raw sewerage into residential urban areas. The urban poor, young children and elderly especially who do not have access to good health care and who live in informally developed urban areas are particularly at risk. Climate change health impacts “are accentuated in densely populated urban areas.”[endnoteRef:42] [41: Satterthwaite, 2009 [full title in the reference list]] [42: Dodman, 2009:13 [full ref in list?]]

Drought is also an increasingly important climate change effect. Drought affects cities directly and indirectly. For example, as witnessed in 2010, hydro electricity is jeopardised by erratic rainfall, meaning that hydroelectric lakes are not filled to capacity whilst water must be used for other purposes too such as agriculture and river transport, meaning water releases that may not benefit electricity production optimally and therefore enhancing the blackouts in cities. Transport on rivers is negatively affected, and over time the stress will become particularly pronounced as groundwater reservoirs are depleted and clean water supply may become problematic.

Hanoi: Reduced Precipitation Results in a Changed Environment

Every year, even at the peak of Viet Nam's dry season, when the Red River is at its lowest, Hanoi's skilled captains manage to negotiate their flat-bottomed boats through its shallow waters. But this year [early 2010?], with a drought gripping the entire country and water levels at record lows, the river is eerily quiet. What is normally a bustling waterway is becoming a winding river of sand, and farmers who depend upon the river for irrigation are watching the expanding sandbars as nervously as the boat captains. "If there is no water in the coming days," says 59-year-old farmer Vu Thi La, who just put in her spring rice seedlings, "it will all die."

Across Viet Nam, high temperatures and parched rivers are setting off alarm bells as the nation grapples with what's shaping up to be its worst drought in more than 100 years. At 0.68 metres high, the Red River is [when?] at its lowest level since records started being kept in 1902. With virtually no rainfall since September, timber fires are burning in the north and tinder-dry conditions threaten forests in the south.

Source: [???]

The direct effects and large scale potential risks are difficult to predict with accuracy, but at a global level much has been agreed. Secondary impacts, from social dislocation to environmental transformation, depend more strongly on local social economic conditions and are even more difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the expected magnitude is huge and therefore action is needed.

3.2Climate change, urban vulnerabilities, and migration

[this section should work out which are the most vulnerable groups and what their needs are, eg with examples from eg CtC work and international literature. It should use the UN & Oxfam gender cc paper which givers eg resilience indicators. In other words, migrants and migration should be just one aspect of this section.

It also needs to be improved in conceptual terms: vulnerability is not the same as poverty, for example, and different groups of deprived or disadvantaged people need different support to increase their resilience, from social protection to livelihood support services, education and health services (which also need differentiation), and so on. Generally, social differentiation needs to be central in the different parts of the text, including by age and gender.

And it needs conclusions and recommendations for increasing resilience of different groups – in this section or in the final section of this chapter]

Vulnerable people and living places

Poorer urban dwellers in Viet Nam often live in areas with low quality drainage and flood protection infrastructure, whilst during floods critical services such as clean water supplies are severely disrupted. The urban neighbourhoods that are most vulnerable to heavy rainfall include informal residential areas along rivers and converted wetland areas. These settlements are often unplanned, have low quality built environment (public and private), lack sufficient drainage infrastructure whilst due their proximity to rivers and lakes they may be the first to experience floods, often of polluted water. However, these neighbourhoods supply cheap labour and services and are critically important for urban development and economic growth.

[Here we need more on different vulnerable groups in urban VN, urban vulnerabilities / risks for climatic shocks and stresses. It is not enough to only talk of migration as the rest of this section does. Important to explain with some examples the vulnerabilities in certain cities of VN with reference also to the table in section 3.1 (third column). This should be specific on gender and age related vulnerabilities, in particular; migrants are discussed in next subsection]

Migration to towns and cities

The Ministry of Construction (MOC) forecasts annual increases in the urban population of 1 to 1.3 million people, due largely to rural to urban migration. It is generally believed that the urban population is 10-15% higher than current estimates due to the number of unregistered migrants.[endnoteRef:43] In Ho Chi Minh City, 1.8 million people living within the city boundaries are recent migrants with temporary resident status.[endnoteRef:44] [need for brief explanation of different residential status, classes of (temporary) registration; we also need to get a clear sense regarding the meaning of “unregistered as in Coulthart: is that including those with temporary registration?] [43: Coulthart et al., 2006.] [44: Waibel, Michael. “Migration to Greater Ho Chi Minh City in the course of Doi Moi Policy” Spatial Dimensions, Consequences and Policy Changes with special reference to Housing. University of Hamburg [date? full title in the reference list]]

While statistics suggest that urban poverty has significantly declined in the last two decades – from approximately 25% in 1993 to around 4% in 2006[endnoteRef:45] - the statistics do not fully account for temporary residents. Urban poverty data for the major cities need to be qualified against indications of considerable under-reporting of poverty amongst recent or transitory migrants from rural areas. There are even suggestions that urban poverty is showing a slight increase in recent years [reference?]. Income poverty, coupled with poor access to urban services means that many migrants are more vulnerable than other urban citizens. Migrants congregate in some of the most vulnerable urban areas, in order to find affordable accommodation. Although migrants may suffer poverty or deprivation in urban areas their situation is not necessarily worse than in the sending areas, including the quality of services that they manage to access – but costs in urban areas are high. [45: World Bank data 2007 [this is a meaningless reference? full title in list is needed. Also, poverty data that are more recent should be available easily]]

[we need something on special vulnerabilities of migrants, and “migrants” has to be differentiated as not all migrants are poor and especially vulnerable. This subsection has to demonstrate a gendered analysis.]

There are many push factors for rural to urban migration, and environmental pressures that are enhanced by climate change appear to play an increasingly important role. Flooding, drought and saline water intrusion may push vulnerable people to search a safer and stable life[endnoteRef:46]. Especially the risks of mean sea level rise associated with enhanced saline water intrusion are seen to be important, affecting millions of people in Viet Nam if no appropriate measures are taken[endnoteRef:47]. The climate change-enhanced displacement pressures are especially acute in the Mekong Delta and the coastal provinces. [46: On migration see e.g. Action Aid Viet Nam & Oxfam Viet Nam, 2009; Adger et al., 2002; and also Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007; UN-Viet Nam, 2009] [47: See: IPCC, 2007, which labelled the Mekong Delta in Viet Nam and Cambodia one of three global hotspots re migration pressures as a result of sea level rise; Dasgupta et al., 2007; and UN-Viet Nam, 2009]

Views in Viet Nam have long focused on the negative aspects of migration. The belief that planning cannot deal with the influx of poor migrants is common and therefore that barriers to migration are needed. There are several rules in Viet Nam which deter migrants from investing in permanent housing [needs specifics re these “rules”, such as:] Unregistered migrants are less likely to invest to increase their resilience due to the tentative nature of their residential status and prohibitions on land ownership and access to urban services. Globally, there are not many examples of cities successfully keeping migrants out of cities. Ignoring migration and forcing migrants out of the city may be counter effective and result in social unrest.

Rural-urban migrants are an important workforce and play a key role in for example the construction sector and in low skill manufacturing industry. They are also important for regional and rural economic development. Migrants to urban areas send remittances back, and they may return (temporarily or permanently) to rural areas with new skills, networks and investment capital. Remittances are a growing proportion of rural households’ incomes in different parts of Asia. Remittances overtook earnings from farming in rural households’ budgets in China in 2004.[endnoteRef:48] In Viet Nam, circular (or transitory) migrants – migrants who stay a short time in urban areas before returning to rural areas – often accumulate investment capital as urban workers. According to Professor Dang Anh, it is increasingly common for young women from rural areas to spend 1-2 years in industrial zones in order “earn their marriage money”[endnoteRef:49]. If rural to urban migration would be discouraged there may thus be a negative consequences for rural households and a widening rural-urban disparity, whilst there could also be a negative effect on urban growth. [48: Cecilia Tacoli Presentation (IIED) [this is not a complete and correct way of referencing], The links between rural and urban development in Africa and Asia] [49: Prof Dang Anh. “Scoping Study on the Contribution of Circular Migration to Poverty Reduction in India and Vietnam” [date? full title in the reference list]]

But rapid and accelerating migration is a challenge for cities. Migrants enhance the demand for housing, transportation, environmental services, education and healthcare services, which are in short supply. More than 50 percent of migrants in Ho Chi Minh City report that their housing conditions are worse after migration compared to the situation before migration.[endnoteRef:50] Many migrants are not registered or have obtained only temporary (K4) status. Authorities in Ha Long estimated for example that 20-25% of the city’s population are migrants who are not registered.[endnoteRef:51] [50: Waibel [date?]] [51: Coulthart, Quang and Sharpe, Vietnam’s Infrastructure Challenge, 2006. [this is not a complete and correct way of referencing]]

Governance, grass roots democracy and urban development

[Here a few paras on “participation” or grass roots democracy, citizens groups and the role of mass organisations, and urban governance that would be inclusive of vulnerable groups (not just migrants). This concerns the legal challenges / access to land and services questions that migrants face, but also a large number of urban dwellers who are not (first generation) migrants are occupants of land that is not officially theirs, or half-officially – what about the communities outside the dyke in Hanoi for example? This subsection also has to demonstrate a gendered analysis]

[We need (in this section or in section 3.4 of this chapter) conclusions and recommendations for increasing resilience of different social groups – especially regarding the soft side of increasing resilience as in community based disaster risk reduction, CBDRM, which is also being practised in urban communities]

Lack of cooperation between sector ministries has been mentioned by many experts, academics and politicians but remains one of the big bottlenecks for more efficient urban planning and management. The effects of climate change will only increase the pressure for better cooperation since the growth of the country’s economy is at stake.

3.3Urban economies at risk

[this section should be distinctly different from 3.2. It should focus on overall economic contribution to hinterland / region as well as country, and address especially the business / private sector and infrastructure (which is also critical for accessing social and other a services despite climatic stresses); and therefore urban development policies including urban planning. So in 3.3 there is no need to talk of migration other than re infra and employment needs, with possibly a reference back to the needs for land rights / legalisation of land occupation as in 3.2. Critical is also that this section provides ideas over costs of adaptation (-infra) and (short and long term) benefits from short and medium term investments that avoid future costs.]

Climate change threats to economic development

Increase in intensity and frequency of climatic hazards has already been observed in cities. However, the threats or stresses from climate change are additional to the existing challenges of urban development and present threats to health, business, infrastructure and the environment, with a negative impact on urban development and therefore the country’s economic development. For example, in Hanoi the increase in flood hazards is attributed to the degraded capacity of the storm drainage system. In Ho Chi Minh City flood hazards are amplified by land subsidence from overuse of groundwater and the spill-over effects of construction and development on water-surface land areas in the south eastern part of the city and encroachment over the flood storage wetland area.[endnoteRef:52] Rapid reduction of vacant land and increases in population density are exacerbated by poor urban planning and implementation [if we call this “poor” we need a reference that backs it up]. Particularly problematic is the combination of climate change stresses with inadequate urban environmental infrastructure and management such as inadequate waste and wastewater disposal. Apart from the many vulnerabilities discussed in the previous section, there are particular threats to businesses and therefore employment, whilst cities are the country’s engines of growth. [52: Nha Be, District 7 and Can Gio [ref?]]

The urbanization process in Viet Nam is a transition from a rural-based agrarian society to one based on industrial production, trade and services that are mostly urban. But Viet Nam’s cities have master plans that often lack a thorough long term vision and do not adequately reflect the reality of rapid urbanization and the opportunities offered for economic growth. And the challenge has increased as the realisation of climate change effects takes root.

Viet Nam is integrating further into the world economy especially following WTO accession and international trade continues to increase. In this context port cities develop rapidly, and have to balance their rapid growth while ensuring the safety of their facilities and residents. Cities along the coast such as Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho, Da Nang, Hai Phong, Ha Long, and Nha Trang are most vulnerable to sea level rise. These cities will face a loss of land and inundation of coastal neighbourhoods, industrial areas and businesses, unless protective infrastructure is scaled up, or city expansion plans are changed drastically towards higher land. But the latter is only possible for some cities and not an option in most of the Mekong Delta.

[here we need more on the economic role of towns and cities, and in-depth discussion is needed of the effects on businesses and business, on employment. The threats to business and employment include business continuity, transport needs, direct damage; also health and safety of workers, as improvements often correlate with cleaner environmental behaviour and reduced environmental risks from businesses and to businesses. Also relevant is the need to access social services such as hospitals and schools, also during and immediately after critical events, as extreme climatic shocks affect certain groups.]

Climate change threats to urban infrastructure

The backlog in urban infrastructure development in Viet Nam has been identified as an alarm signal: “Building the infrastructure needed to support rapid economic growth and urbanization requires efficient use of public resources. Infrastructure is the second most important constraint to Viet Nam’s development. Here too, the current situation is extremely worrisome.”[endnoteRef:53] This conclusion was reached without fully considering climate change and indeed most infrastructure upgrading projects have not considered climate change effects, including the recently designed flood levels for the protection dyke system of Ho Chi Minh City [such strong statements require referencing, otherwise edit or delete]. In addition, outdated building codes and standards are still in use and at the same time inconsistently enforced. Drainage systems, pumping stations, roads, and dykes in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are being upgraded, but may fail to fully address pollution and flood threats as climate change risks are increasing. [53: Choosing Success, Harvard Vietnam Program January 2008[this is not a complete and correct way of referencing]]

Current urban development, i.e. more built up areas and less green and water space increases the challenge of adapting to climate change effects. This became very clear in Hanoi in October 2008 where big parts of the city flooded after two days of heavy rainfall, which caused heavy pollution in the worst affected areas. It also affected the energy supply which is especially vulnerable to climatic hazards and broken electricity supply lines are a major hazard during floods. In October 2008 several electric transformers were turned off during the heavy rain, and afterwards had to be moved to a higher location. A similar situation occurred in other cities including Istanbul, Turkey, where extreme rainfall and inadequate urban planning caused major damage during periods of heavy rainfall in 2009. These weather extremes will in all likelihood be repeated, and possibly become more extreme as a result of climate change.

Istanbul, Turkey: Blaming Flooding on Climate Change Instead of Poor Urban Planning

The devastating, tragic floods in Istanbul which killed at least 41 people and caused $70 million to $80million in damage--offered yet another reminder of the danger such incidents pose to the country. In early September, flash floods triggered by heavy rainfall partially submerged some suburban districts of the large metropolis, damaging houses and infrastructure, stranding people in their vehicles as the city's highways turned into rivers, and cutting off access to the airport.

"In an hour, Istanbul received 205 kilograms of rainwater per square metre. This is the strongest rain Istanbul has experienced in 80 years," Mayor Kadir Topbaş noted in the early days of the disaster, saying global warming was to blame. Critics, however, accused Topbaş of trying to divert attention away from the role played by his administration and those of his predecessors, including now Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

According to the Istanbul branch of the Environmental Engineers Chamber, the issuing of permits for buildings close to riverbanks without creating sufficient infrastructure was a major factor in the flood damage. The environmental engineers also blamed the city's poor system for dealing with sewage and rainwater, which are collected together, not separately, as needs to be done to keep pipes from overflowing.

The environmental group WWF-Turkey took something of a middle ground on the issue, blaming both global warming and poorly planned and unregulated urbanization, saying in a statement that: "Due to irregular and unplanned building and insufficient infrastructural investment, rain is unable to reach the sea through its natural flowing canals and turns into flooding. Because of insufficient greenery in cities, the rain isn't absorbed by dirt."

One of the most contentious areas has been the dense and hard-hit settlements around the Ayamama River, which the local Chamber of Architects lobbied back in 1997--when Erdoğan was mayor of Istanbul--to protect as an ecological corridor and recreation area. "We prepared reports then, but they did not listen. [We said] urbanization in the region would both destroy the environment and put an extra burden on the already insufficient infrastructure," said Büyükkent branch chairman Eyüp Muhçu. "We filed a lawsuit against the decision, and we won, but the municipality allowed settlement in the region despite the court ruling." [endnoteRef:54] [54: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/poor-planning-behind-istanbul-deluge.php [accessed when? This whole story seems summarized from one newspaper article, and that needs proper referencing. Are only the quotes from the article or are they quotes in the article?]]

Vulnerability

Hanoi

HCMC

Can Tho

Population density

??

7.2 million in 2009 [endnoteRef:55] [55: Tuoi Tre newspaper, 2009 [not an appropriate source: such data should come from official publications not newspapers]]

30,000 pp/km2 in city centre to 600pp/km2 in outer district [endnoteRef:56] [56: Le, 2007 [full title in the reference list; also considering that 15% or so of all Vietnamese families are called Le]]

846 pp/km2

Percent poor or slum dwellers

??

80,000 poor household[endnoteRef:57] [57: Poverty line is at 12,000,000VND/person/year [source? When was this? Has the poverty line not recently been updated?]]

50% population migrated to HCMC in less than 25 years

???

Percent of urban area or population susceptible to flooding

???

70% land is prone to natural flood

50% of areas planned for development lies at less than MSL

Average land elevation 0.8-1m above MSL.

City % of national GDP

??

More vulnerable to temperature and precipitation changes than to sea level rise (1)

Health care facilities, water, transportation, tourism, recreation (1)

Figure [...] Climate change vulnerabilities[endnoteRef:58] [this table should focus on the title of the subsection: economics, including infra and business activities of the main cities of Viet Nam. This table is meaningless with so many empty boxes – so either fill up with additional info sources or delete. If it stays the contents needs to be used / referred to in the text] [58: Any action plan to respond to climate change (and other hazards and risks) should consider all kinds of vulnerabilities and the conditions contributing to that vulnerability, and the alternatives to change the conditions and reduce vulnerability.]

As a result of saline water intrusion some cities’ water supply intakes and water treatment facilities must be re-located further upstream (especially in the Mekong Delta).[endnoteRef:59] The depletion of groundwater in and near cities is also significantly increasing their vulnerability to climate change effects. In Ho Chi Minh City, ground water exploitation exceeds 600,000 m3/day compared with only 200,000m3/day of water replenished. This imbalance has resulted in lowering of groundwater levels, which, together with rapid construction development can also lead to the geological deformation. Ho Chi Minh City is subsiding at a speed of 6 mm per year[endnoteRef:60]. Furthermore, groundwater in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh is heavily polluted. Pollutants include nitrogen compounds, biological and organic matter, and also toxic elements, including naturally occurring arsenic (mostly in the red River delta).[endnoteRef:61] Guaranteeing water supply will thus require major infrastructure investments, in the near and longer term future. [59: Viet Nam Water & Sanitation Sector Assessment, Strategy and Roadmap. Asian Development Bank, Southeast Asia Department, Energy & Water Division. (Final Draft March 2010) [full ref in list?]] [60: Prof. Le Van Trung, Center of geographical information technology, Ho Chi Minh City National University. http://tinnhanhvietnam.net/xa-hoi/su-co-cac-cong-trinh-co-lien-quan-den-tang-nuoc-ngam.html [accessed when?]] [61: Nguyen Van Dan and Nguyen Thi Dzung “Groundwater pollution in the Hanoi area.” The Northern Hydro geological Engineering Geological Division. Cau Giay – Ha Noi; Department of Geology and Minerals of Vietnam. 6 Pham Ngu Lao- Ha Noi [date? full title in the reference list]]

Cities with degraded or overwhelmed drainage and water storage system such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, will be severely affected by increasingly heavy rainfall and risks of flooding. The disappearance of open spaces and the filling in of lakes in urban areas has increased the likelihood of heavy rainfall causing longer periods of flooding. This also relates to pollution, as untreated wastewater will be all over a flooded city. In Hanoi, less than ten percent of wastewater is treated and 500,000 m3 of wastewater is discharged daily.[endnoteRef:62] Nationally, less than one third of the country’s 110 industrial zones have wastewater treatment facilities. Untreated sewerage is dumped into waterways. In urban areas nationwide the length of sewers per capita is between 1.2 and 1.4 m, as compared to 6 to 8 m per capita for cities in other countries of the region.[endnoteRef:63] Floods and inundation thus cause pollution and threaten human health, and climate change increases these risks. Again, the demands on good planning, additional investment of climate proofing of infrastructure investments is evident. [62: Nguyen Viet Anh, November 2008 [full reference in list?]] [63: http://www.xaydung.gov.vn/site/moc/faq?qId=1309 ]

Flooding and wastewater pollution in Hanoi: an overburdened drainage [sewerage?] system threatens the environment and human health

Hanoi’s sewerage system has not been strategically built, but rather has been based mainly on the natural rivers, lakes, ponds, and channels and sewage treatment is minimal. The increase in household sewage, together with the development of industries has surpassed the city’s capacity for sewage treatment, and exacerbated the city’s water pollution. [this is about domestic wastewater and general city wastewater, not from industrial zones: how much of that is treated, if any, and is that basic wastewater treatment or modern? I have never seen a domestic wastewater treatment facility in / near Hanoi: where are they? Also critical is that according to what I know there is virtually no separation in Hanoi or elsewhere in Viet Nam of rainstorm drainage systems and sewerage systems, meaning that to treat sewage means that the treatment plants would also have to receive rainfall from the streets and roofs. The backlog in systems investment is thus enormous, whilst as far as I know still now the newly built areas still have no separate rainstorm drainage and sewerage systems. If I am ruight this is a key point re infrastructure investment needs as rainstorm drainage systems must cope with heavier floods and pollution during floods with wastewater must be prevented]

Most rivers, lakes, and ponds in Hanoi are severely contaminated. It is estimated that the level of water pollution will double by 2020 if no effective solutions are found. To Lich River – the main sewer for old Hanoi – receives 150,000m3 of sewage/day. Kim Nguu River receives 120,000 m3 of sewage/day. Besides providing drainage, the rivers and channels in Hanoi have also receive part of the waste [solid waste? Wastewater? Other drainage?] generated by the people, industries and handicraft villages.

[Here there needs to be a further explanation re effects of climate change such as floods and also droughts on transport and electricity supply]

Northern Viet Nam: Hydropower Dams and Drought Threaten Agriculture

Viet Nam is still building hydropower dams. The government recently [mid 2010? when?] released water existing dams to help farmers in the Red River Delta with spring planting. Now [when?] with reservoir levels in the north at critical lows, the state-owned electricity company says it can't let go of much more; power demand is expected to break records as temperatures soar. High temperatures and evaporation are the enemy.

The crisis has been a "wakeup call" for Viet Nam, says Ian Wilderspin, senior technical adviser for disaster risk management at the U.N. Development Program in Hanoi. The drought was predicted, he says, referring to last year's projections that El Niño would bring an unusually warm and dry winter. Yet Viet Nam traditionally prepares for floods and typhoons, which are more dramatic and devastating when they hit. "Drought is a slow, silent disaster, which in the long run will have a more profound impact on peoples' livelihoods," he says. [endnoteRef:64] [64: www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1969630,00.html [accessed when?]]

Urban traffic is already a serious concern and will be further affected by the direct and indirect pressures effects of climate change.[more ...]

Costs of climate change effects and benefits from early investment in adaptation

[This needs to be followed by an economic argument over avoiding costs (damages, reduced business / livelihood activities) that must be a core factor in agreeing investment decisions that mitigate those costs, i.e. investment in adaptation. References at the international level include the Stern report, and the “mini stern” by ADB for SE Asia as well as the WB costs of adaptation report (case study VN). At the national / city level the critical point is that somehow authorities need to decide which “climate proofing” additional costs is most justified in the short term, and which investments can wait. In addition many costs can be avoided by simple changes in urban planning, meaning “expand here instead of there” decisions]

Urban planning

The Urban Planning Law (enacted January 2010) is not specific on climate change challenges. The present overall policy framework seems to guide cities in Viet Nam in the opposite direction. There is a need to reform and strengthen Viet Nam’s Urban Policy and the planning system and practices of Viet Nam. Cities in Viet Nam are developing in an informal manner and not always guided strategically in order to achieve optimal patterns.

The Government of Viet Nam has been involved in a number of pilot projects for the preparation of urban development strategies in selected cities utilizing the ‘City Development Strategy’ (CDS) methodology, a tried and tested comprehensive planning approach that could take into consideration climate change adaptation and prepare for greener low carbon cities. However a clear link need to be made with the existing legal systems of national and sectoral.

The National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change asks all sectors and provinces including cities to formulate action plans to respond to climate change. However, without the integration of these actions into strategic construction and land use plans means their impact is likely to be limited.

Planned adaptation implies policy decisions and measures at the urban-scale that facilitates the reduction of the adverse impacts of climate change. Each city faces its own particular range of risks and vulnerabilities and so needs to develop a city-specific understanding of this. These are needed now for all urban centres so that growing cities and urban centres progressively build into their infrastructure and wider development resilience to climate change impacts.

However, the present attitude among government and donors is one of fire fighting or crisis management where sector ministries and donors are supporting some individual cities, for example with vulnerability assessments and recommendations for infrastructural or geographical improvements. Although this is contributing to more climate resilient cities it does not tackle the root of the problem, which is ineffective, and inefficient city planning and management [but the text does not provide arguments or references that explain what is wrong, why is it inefficient – some is in chapter 5, but a forward reference is not enough].

3.4Conclusions and recommendations re urban adaptation

[this section should refer back to / build on the analysis provided in 3.1-3.3, and provide the recommendations on those subjects (especially the subjects of 3.2 and 3.3), which is not currently the case as several recommendations seem to fall from the sky. Problem analysis on planning for example should not be here but in 2.3 and recommendations could go here (I did some cut and paste and edited parts, but very little of substance is there so far]

Climate change effects will continue to become more pronounced, also if greenhouse gas mitigation is successful at the global level. The climatic extremes expected from climate change as well as the more gradual pressures of climate change will affect cities throughout Viet Nam, with the most severe impacts in coastal cities and the cities of the Mekong Delta. But timely and well prioritised action can have multiple benefits, as summarised in the following table.

Table [...] Potential benefits and co-benefits of adaptation

Adaptation Investments

Objective

Benefits and co-benefits

Improve drainage infrastructure

To reduce losses from flooding

Reduced the risk on water borne diseases

Conserve open spaces and water bodies

Keep absorption capacity

Recreational areas; improved air flow;

Halt unplanned urban development

To improve design and drainage infrastructure

More liveable urban areas

Maintenance of local infrastructure

To reduce degradation and clogging

Cost savings

Dikes and mean sea level rise resilience enhancement

To reduce flooding caused by sea; reduce salinization

Rise in property prices

Rainwater and sewerage infrastructure

To reduce health risks caused by flooding

Improved water quality and health

Adaptation Measure

Objective

Benefits and co-benefits

Improved planning for comprehensive climate proofing

To reduce overlap and gaps in planning

A step towards planning reform

Improved coordination among stakeholders

To improve analysis and maximize funds

Potential mobilization of funds

Harmonization of plans with the land use plan

Ensure strategic land planning is the basis for urban planning

Improved natural resource management in urban areas

Improve data sharing and spatial analysis (GIS)

To increase data-driven decision making; to give planners an important tool

Step towards digitization and data standardization

The following adaptation priority areas have been identified for urban areas in Viet Nam.

[the above table and text below should match – now several things in the table are not discussed in the text]

Develop urban adaptation policy and coordination

Climate change adaptation must take place at all levels: from strategic national investments in infrastructure, to provincial level land use planning, town and city level enforcement of laws, district and ward risk and vulnerability assessments, and support to neighbourhoods and households to protect and enhance assets that are resilient to climate change.

Viet Nam’s main policy challenge in the near future in terms of urban development is how to create efficient and sustainable, climate change resilient and economically viable cities. While cities have to make their individual choices, the central Government should provide an overall policy framework that facilitates climate change resilience and guides urban development through the century. Urban development policy should set clear and realistic goals and take into account the current informal character of urbanization and reflect that climate change will require more innovative solutions. This general policy framework should be linked to or be part of a national climate change strategy that would also encompass a national adaptation plan (NAP) as per agreement under the UNFCCC[endnoteRef:65]. [65: See the Cancun agreements: UNFCCC Draft decision [-/CP.16] Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention]

MONRE’s facilitating role on climate change related issues is important as it leads on the National Target Programme to respond to Climate Change.[endnoteRef:66] MOC, MPI and MONRE should closely work together combating climate change adaptation at city level. MOC has a core role in urban development and are in charge of master planning (construction), MPI are leading on the formulation of the national SEDP and MONRE also has responsibilities in land use planning, which is inefficient in many towns and cities. To address the combined pressures of climate change and wider urbanization challenges in cities, cooperation in urban planning and management should be strongly improved. [66: In Resolution No. 60/2007/NQ-CP dated December 3rd 2007 the Government has assigned MONRE to be in charge in collaboration with other related ministries and sectors to develop a NTP for coping with global climate change. (NTP p. 8)]

Strengthen urban governance for climate resilience

Urban governance should be strengthened for cities and their citizens to become more climate resilient. The following is recommended:

· Adopt a decentralized approach that empowers towns and cities is recommended because each city is affected by climate change in a different manner. Solutions for those cities will also differ and therefore it is necessary to adapt plans and solutions to the local circumstances.

· A strategic and flexible urban development plan should be prepared for each city and town, that ind