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    REASONS FOR DEMAND

    FORCASTING:1. Quantify the jobs necessary for producinggoods.

    2. Determine staff-mix desirable in the future.3. Assess appropriate staffing levels in different

    parts organisation to avoid unnecessary costs.

    4. Prevent shortage of people when they areneeded most.

    5. Monitor compliance with legal requirements.

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    Potential benefits

    Upper management better aware.Personnel cost is controlled.More time to locate talent.Affirmative Action Plan implemented

    Time to develop employees

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    Activities

    Planning & Forecasting Predict Demand Tap the sources of Supply Recruitment/Selection

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    Methods Of Forecasting Trend Analysis Ratio Analysis Scatter Plot Computerized Forecast Qualification Inventories Personnel Replacement Charts

    Position Replacement Cards

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    PROGRAMME PLANNING OPTIONS

    Do not replace employees who leave

    Offer incentives for early retirementTransfer or re-assign excess employeesUse slack time for employees training orequipment maintenanceReduce work hoursLay-off employees

    If a surplus of employeesis expected .

    Hire new full-time employeesOffer incentives for postponing retirementRe-hire retired employees on part-time basisAttempt to reduce turnoverBring in overtime for present staffSubcontract work to another companyHire temporary employeesRe-engineer to reduce needs.

    If a shortage ofemployees is expected .

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    OPTIONS FOR REDUCING AN

    EXPECTED LABOR SURPLUS Option Speed Human Suffering

    Downsizing Fast High

    Pay reductions Fast High

    Demotions Fast High

    Transfers Fast Moderate

    Work sharing Fast ModerateRetirement Slow Low

    Natural attrition Slow Low

    Retraining Slow Low

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    OPTIONS FOR AVOIDING AN EXPECTED

    LABOR SHORTAGE

    Option Speed Human Suffering

    Overtime Fast High

    Temporary employees Fast High

    Outsourcing Fast High

    Retrained Transfers Slow High

    Turnover reductions Slow Moderate

    New external hires Slow Low

    Technologicalinnovation

    Slow Low

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    11/5/2014 11:24 PM IBP PRESENTATION 10

    A HYPOTHETICAL TRANSITIONAL MATRIX

    FOR AN AUTO PARTS MANUFACTURER

    199319961) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)

    Sales manager .95 .05

    Salesrepresentative

    .05 .60 .35

    Sales apprentice .20 .50 .30

    Assistant plantmanager

    .90 .05 .05

    Productionmanager

    .10 .75 .15

    Productionassembler

    .10 .80 .10

    Clerical .70 .30

    Not in organization .00 .20 .50 .00 .10 .20 .30

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    DOWNSIZING

    Planned elimination of large number of personnel with goal of enhancing the

    organizationals competitiveness

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    DOWNSIZING

    Reducing costsReplacing Labor by

    TechMergers &Acquisitions

    Moving to moreeconomical locations

    Loss of talentSocial network

    effectedDrop of motivationHurt image building

    Only as a last resortImprove forecasting

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    Other options

    Early Retirement ProgramsEmploying Temporary WorkersOutsourcingOvertime and Expanded Hours

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    RECRUITMENT CHANNELS

    INTERNALJob Posting Programs

    Buy Back

    EXTERNAL

    Walk in interviews

    Employee referrals

    Advertisement/ E rects

    Employment agencies

    Private placement

    agencies

    Educational Institutes

    Temporary Help Agencies

    Open House

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    YIELD RATIO

    Expresses the relationships of applicants inputs tooutput of various decisions points. This is a simplemethod to calculate the number of applicants an

    employer must generate to hire the required number ofnew applicants.New hire 2 ; 1

    Interview 3 : 2

    Short list 4 : 3

    Applicants 6 : 4

    BUSINESS SOLUTIONS

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    LocalUniversity

    RenownedUniversity

    EmployeeReferrals

    NewspaperAd

    ExecutiveSearch

    FirmsResumes generated 200 400 50 500 20

    Interview offersaccepted 175 100 45 400 20

    Yield ratio 87% 25% 90% 80% 100%Judged acceptable 100 95 40 50 19

    Yield radiation 57% 95% 89% 12% 95%Accept employmentoffers 90 10 35 25 15

    Yield ratio 90% 11% 88% 50% 79%Cumulative 90/200 10/400 35/50 25/500 15/20

    Yield ratio 45% 3% 70% 5% 75%Cost $ 30,000 $ 50,000 $ 15,000 $ 20,000 $ 90,000

    Cost per hire $333 $ 5,000 $ 425 $ 800 $ 6,000

    Hypothetical Yield Ratio for Five Different Recruitment Sources

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    Recruiter

    CHARACTERISTICS

    Choose expertsWarm and Enthusiastic

    InformativeEye for the manProvide realistic JobPreview

    DO NOTS

    Delay feedback tocandidates

    Avoid offensive Behavior Negative image of company

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    DOCUMENTATION

    Application BlankJob PostingsPersonnel InventoriesReplacements

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    HRP Audit

    Leaving cost or Horizontal mobilityDirect costs: Ads, Interviews, TestingCost of time spent by HR peopleOrientation and Trg costs

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    Average core combinedwith Category A overtimeand Category B own-pooltemporaries

    Small core

    workforce (inc.Category A homeworkers and part-timers) andCategory C workers

    Large core combinedwith Category A

    part-time

    Average corecombined withCategory A part-

    timers, shiftworkers, homeworkers andCategory C agencyand/or subcontracts

    HUMAN RESOURCING:Planning and performanceFluctuations in demand

    High

    High

    Low

    Low

    Labourcosts

    Risk assessment model of flexible working patterns

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    Peripheral group I Secondarylabour markets Flexibility

    through quantitative adjustment

    Short termcontracts Public

    subsidytrainees

    Delayedrecruitment

    Job

    sharing

    Part timers

    Peripheral group II

    Core group

    Primary labour

    marketsFlexibility through

    utilization

    Out-sourcing

    Self-employment

    The flexible firm