Chapter 12 Files (reference: Deitel ’ s chap 11) 20061025 chap8.
Chap 1-1 Chapter 3 Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Describe key data...
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Transcript of Chap 1-1 Chapter 3 Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Describe key data...
![Page 1: Chap 1-1 Chapter 3 Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Describe key data collection methods Know key definitions: Population.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081520/5697c0251a28abf838cd535f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Chap 1-1
Chapter 3 Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
Describe key data collection methods Know key definitions:
Population vs. Sample Primary vs. Secondary data types
Qualitative vs. Qualitative data Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data
Explain the difference between descriptive and
inferential statistics Describe different sampling methods & Experiments
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Chap 1-2
Descriptive statistics Collecting, presenting, and describing data
Inferential statistics Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based only on sample data
Tools of Business Statistics
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Chap 1-3
Descriptive Statistics
Collect data e.g. Survey, Observation,
Experiments
Present data e.g. Charts and graphs
Characterize data
e.g. Sample mean = n
x i
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Chap 1-4
Data Sources
PrimaryData Collection
SecondaryData Compilation
Observation
Experimentation
Survey
Print or Electronic
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Chap 1-5
Survey Design Steps
Define the issue what are the purpose and objectives of the survey?
Define the population of interest
Formulate survey questions make questions clear and unambiguous
use universally-accepted definitions
limit the number of questions
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Chap 1-6
Survey Design Steps
Pre-test the survey pilot test with a small group of participants
assess clarity and length
Determine the sample size and sampling method
Select Sample and administer the survey
(continued)
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Chap 1-7
Types of Questions
Closed-end Questions Select from a short list of defined choices
Example: Major: __business __liberal arts __science __other
Open-end Questions Respondents are free to respond with any value, words, or
statement
Example: What did you like best about this course?
Demographic Questions Questions about the respondents’ personal characteristics
Example: Gender: __Female __ Male
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Chap 1-8
A Population is the set of all items or individuals of interest
Examples: All likely voters in the next election All parts produced today
All sales receipts for November
A Sample is a subset of the population Examples: 1000 voters selected at random for interview
A few parts selected for destructive testing
Every 100th receipt selected for audit
Populations and Samples
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Chap 1-9
Population vs. Sample
a b c d
ef gh i jk l m n
o p q rs t u v w
x y z
Population Sample
b c
g i n
o r u
y
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Chap 1-10
Why Sample?
Less time consuming than a census
Less costly to administer than a census
It is possible to obtain statistical results of a sufficiently high precision based on samples.
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Chap 1-11
Sampling Techniques
Convenience
Samples
Non-Probability Samples
Judgement
Probability Samples
Simple Random
Systematic
StratifiedCluster
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Chap 1-12
Statistical Sampling
Items of the sample are chosen based on known or calculable probabilities
Probability Samples
Simple
RandomSystematicStratified Cluster
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Chap 1-13
Simple Random Samples
Every individual or item from the population has an equal chance of being selected
Selection may be with replacement or without replacement
Samples can be obtained from a table of random numbers or computer random number generators
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Chap 1-14
Stratified Samples
Population divided into subgroups (called strata) according to some common characteristic
Simple random sample selected from each subgroup
Samples from subgroups are combined into one
PopulationDividedinto 4strata
Sample
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Chap 1-15
Decide on sample size: n Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=N/n Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group Select every kth individual thereafter
Systematic Samples
N = 64
n = 8
k = 8
First Group
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Chap 1-16
Cluster Samples
Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of the population
A simple random sample of clusters is selected All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can be
chosen from a cluster using another probability sampling technique
Population divided into 16 clusters. Randomly selected
clusters for sample
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Chap 1-17
Data Types
Data
Qualitative(Categorical)
Quantitative (Numerical)
Discrete Continuous
Examples:
Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories) Examples:
Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)
Examples:
Weight Voltage (Measured
characteristics)
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Chap 1-18
Data Types
Time Series Data Ordered data values observed over time
Cross Section Data Data values observed at a fixed point in time
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Chap 1-19
Data Types
Sales (in $1000’s)
2003 2004 2005 2006
Atlanta 435 460 475 490
Boston 320 345 375 395
Cleveland 405 390 410 395
Denver 260 270 285 280
Time Series Data
Cross Section Data
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Chap 1-20
Data Measurement Levels
Ratio/Interval Data
Ordinal Data
Nominal Data
Highest Level
Complete Analysis
Higher Level
Mid-level Analysis
Lowest Level
Basic Analysis
Categorical Codes ID Numbers Category Names
Rankings
Ordered Categories
Measurements
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Chap 1-21
Randomization of Subjects
Randomization: the use of chance to divide experimental units into groups
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Chap 1-22
Experiment Vocabulary
Experimental units Individuals on which the experiment is done
Subjects Experimental units that are human
Treatment Specific experimental condition applied to the units
Factors Explanatory variables in an experiment
Level Specific value of a factor
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Chap 1-23
Example of an Experiment
Does regularly taking aspirin help protect people against heart attacks?
Subjects: 21,996 male physicians Factors
Aspirin (2 levels: yes and no) Beta carotene (2 levels: yes and no)
Treatments Combination of the 2 factor levels (4 total)
Conclusion Aspirin does reduce heart attacks, but beta carotene has no
effect.
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Chap 1-24
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Chap 1-25
Block designs
Random assignment of units to treatments is carried out separately within each block (Group of experimental units or subjects that are known before the experiment to be similar in some way that is expected to affect the response to the treatments)
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Chap 1-26
Making statements about a population by examining sample results
Sample statistics Population parameters (known) Inference (unknown, but can
be estimated from
sample evidence)
Sample Population
Inferential Statistics
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Chap 1-27
Key Definitions
A population is the entire collection of things under consideration A parameter is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the population
A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis A statistic is a summary measure computed to
describe a characteristic of the sample
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Chap 1-28
Statistical Inference Terms
A parameter is a number that describes the population. Fixed number which we don’t know in practice
A statistic is a number that describes a sample. Value is known when we have taken a sample It can change from sample to sample Often used to estimate an unknown parameter
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Chap 1-29
Statistical Significance
An observed effect (i.e., a statistic) so large that it would rarely occur by chance is called statistically significant.
The difference in the responses (another statistic) is so large that it is unlikely to happen just because of chance variation.
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Chap 1-30
Inferential Statistics
Estimation e.g.: Estimate the population mean
weight using the sample mean weight
Hypothesis Testing e.g.: Use sample evidence to test
the claim that the population mean weight is 120 pounds
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.
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Chap 1-31
Sampling variability
Sampling variability Value of a statistic varies in repeated random
sampling If the variation when we take repeat samples from
the same population is too great, we can’t trust the results of any one sample.
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Chap 1-32
Sampling Distribution
Calculate the statistic of interest T(X) for a sample (this may be the only estimate we may get for a parameter)
Somehow get another sample, recalculate T. It will be different each time since X is random.
Plot histogram of T. This is the sampling distribution of T.
A distribution for T obtained from a fixed number of trials is only an approximation to the sampling distribution, just as a in the case for a sample of X.
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Chap 1-33
Remember!
Population size doesn’t matter The variability of a statistic from a random sample
does not depend on the size of the population, as long as the population is at least 100 times larger than the sample.
We are only estimating the parameters of the population, we are not really doing much with the population itself (that’s simulation, or empirical distribution modeling).
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Chap 1-34
Sampling Distribution of p̂
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Chap 1-35
Bias and Variability
Unbiased and Sample Variance ( )N
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Chap 1-36
Chapter Summary
Reviewed key data collection methods Introduced key definitions:
Population vs. Sample Primary vs. Secondary data types
Qualitative vs. Qualitative data Time Series vs. Cross-Sectional data
Examined descriptive vs. inferential statistics Described different sampling techniques Reviewed data types and measurement levels Introduced concept of sampling distribution