CHANGING THE MEAT CASE - National Chicken Council · 2018-04-11 · Checked the in-store...

HOW MILLENNIALS ARE CHANGING THE MEAT CASE:

What to expect as Millennials mature

Chris DuBois and John Crawford Omni Amelia Island Plantation July 13, 2015

2 Copyright © 2015 IRI. Confidential & Proprietary

1

3 4

Why Millennials matter

Millennial shopping behavior

Millennial impact on the meat department

5 Implications

2 Millennial myths


BORN BETWEEN 1980 AND 2004


A BIG WAVE IS COMING U.S. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE IN MILLIONS, 2013

Source: Census Bureau


SILENT

BOOMER

GEN X

MILLENNIALS

DEMOGRAPHICS MATTER! MILLENNIALS WILL BECOME THE LARGEST POPULATION SEGMENT IN 2015

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau population projections released 12-2014

Projected Population by Generation (in Millions)

NOTE: Millennials refers to the population ages 18 – 34 as of 2015


MORE PRIME AGE WORKERS

Source: BLS / www.calculatedriskblog.com

+12MM by

2030


MILLENNIAL MOVE INTO PEAK SPENDING

<25 55-64 65+

Peak spending

25-34 35-44 45-54


GROWING PURCHASING POWER OF MILLENNIALS

% of CPG Dollar Volume

BOOMERS

MILLENNIALS

17%

29%

2014 2020

38% 32%

2014 2020

+70% -16%


2 MILLENNIAL MYTHS


MILLENNIAL MEDIA BUZZ


MILLENNIALS ARE OF THE MOST NEGATIVELY STEREOTYPED GENERATIONS IN HISTORY

To connect emotionally with this generation, brands and advertisers must: Move past simplistic generalizations

Understand the misconceptions

Identify with Millennials as unique individuals


4 MILLENNIAL MYTHS Millennials are the most self-absorbed generation ever

Millennials are not brand loyal

Millennials are not influenced by traditional marketing

1 2 3 4

Millennials reject “traditional” life paths


MILLENNIALS ARE THE MOST SELF-ABSORBED GENERATION EVER 1

90%

Equate success with being a good friend

68%

Equate success with working for a cause

they believe in

58%

Equate success with contributing to the

community

50%

Share information about causes on

social media


MILLENNIALS REJECT ‘TRADITIONAL’ LIFE PATHS 2

73% Employed

28% are Married

37% Own a Home

38% Have Kids

Timing of Lifestage Milestones Aren’t Linear

90% Work / Life Balance 83% Owning a Home

83% Being a Great Parent

75% Career Accomplishments

SUCCESS =


MILLENNIALS AREN’T BRAND LOYAL 3 44% say they’re loyal to

the brands they buy

41% GenX

45% Boomers

2in3 working with limited grocery budgets

51% GenX

61% Boomers

70% choose price over brand

54% GenX

58% Boomers

In the absence of meaningful differentiation, Millennials will switch for emotional payoff.

62% store brands as good as

national brands

72% will switch

for the right price or deal

88% saving money

makes them feel smart

83% enjoy finding

the best deals


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Item PriceRequests from a Household Member

Shopper Loyalty Cards/DiscountsRecommendation from a Friend/Family Member

In-Store CouponsCoupons Received in the Mail

In-Store CircularsProduct Label/Packaging

Signs or Displays In-StoreCoupons Downloaded on My Smartphone/Tablet

Product reviews onlineNewspaper Circulars

Information or Promotion from a Retailer App on my…Print Ads in Newspapers or Magazines

Information or Promotion from a Retailer Website or EmailTV advertising

Information or Promotion from a Manufacturer Website or…

Factors Influencing Millennials’ Brand Purchase Decisions

Millennials are strongly influenced by the

recommendations of others in person, on social and in product

reviews.

MILLENNIALS AREN’T INFLUENCED BY TRADITIONAL MARKETING 4


3 MILLENNIAL SHOPPING BEHAVIOR


MILLENNIAL SHOPPING PATTERNS ARE NOT THE U.S. NORM

MILLENNIALS TOTAL U.S.

202 annual

shopping trips

156 annual

shopping trips

-1.4% $ change v. YA

-2.4% $ change v. YA

85 grocery trips

64 Grocery trips

Grocery, Walmart, eCommerce

showing trip growth

Grocery, Club, Dollar, Drug, eCommerce showing trip growth

Club, Dollar, Drug, Mass

showing trip decline

Mass, Walmart showing trip decline


MILLENNIALS ARE CHOOSING BRANDS THAT MATCH THEIR NEEDS AND BELIEFS

HEALTHY/NATURAL COST SAVINGS INNOVATION


ALMOST 40% OF MILLENNIALS ARE MULTI-CULTURAL

60% White

14% African

American

19% Hispanic

5% Asian

1% Other


CPG CATEGORIES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY DIGITAL

8% used a digital device

WHILE SHOPPING

29% of shoppers interacted digitally PRIOR TO SHOPPING

75% plan to use a smartphone / tablet FOR FUTURE SHOPPING


MILLENNIALS ARE USING DIGITAL TODAY

Own a smartphone

48%

say they’re unable to function

without their smart phone

6 hrs/day

average time spent online

45% say they’re

early adopters of technology

29% use a mobile app to pay for

purchases

52% prefer brand updates in email vs.

text


DIGITAL PLAYS A VARYING ROLE IN PRE-TAIL ACTIVITIES ACROSS CATEGORIES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MILLENNIALS USED DIGITAL PRE-TAIL THAN SHOPPERS AGED 35+

xxx xxx

xxx xxx

xxx xxx

xxx

xxx

% USING ANY DIGITAL DEVICE PRIOR TO GOING TO THE STORE

48% personal

care

46% frozen food

42% OTC

medications

37% non-alcoholic

beverages

36% meat/ poultry

35% snacks

29% dairy

26% beer/wine/

spirits


MORE MILLENNIALS (83%) MAKE GROCERY LISTS THAN OLDER SHOPPERS (72%)… …AND THE VAST MAJORITY HAND-WRITE THEM

xxx xxx xxx

80%+ OF SCHOOL SUPPLY, PAPER PRODUCTS AND PERSONAL CARE

SHOPPERS MADE LISTS

82% 83% 83%

xxx xxx xxx 62% 69% 74%

LIQUOR, SNACKS AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE SHOPPERS

WERE LEAST LIKELY TO MAKE LISTS


LIST MAKING AMONG MEAT/POULTRY BUYERS

81% Of Meat/Poultry

buyers made a list

Q14. Which of the following did you do before you shopped for insert category from S.2? Q15. Did you make a note (mental or written) to buy…?

YET 90% Do not list a brand


FINAL DECISIONS ON THE SPECIFIC MEAT/POULTRY ITEM(S) OFTEN HAPPEN AT SHELF

36%

32%

19%

13%

Base = Past Week Buyers of Meat/Poultry Products

Planning vs. Openness in the Item Decision Process

Decided what to buy before

shopping and bought the

planned item

Planned to buy category, but decided on exact item in store

Unplanned decision in

store

Decided what to buy before

shopping but was open to changing

mind at shelf

64% of Meat/Poultry buyers

are open to being influenced in store


MEAT/POULTRY BUYERS SHOPPING ON DEAL

34% 33%

28% 26%

23% 20%

14% 11%

10% 7%

4%

Looked for special/sale pricing at the shelf

Selected a product because it was on sale

Checked the in-store circular/flyer for sales/deals

Looked for special promotions

Selected a product because it had the lowest price per unit/volume

Selected a product because it was the lowest-priced item

Looked for special displays

Selected a product because I had a coupon for it

Looked for coupons at the shelf

Used a digital device (smart phone, tablet) during the shopping process

Interacted with/asked questions of store personnel

In-Store Activities Among Past Week Meat/Poultry Buyers

Base = Past Week Buyers of Meat/Poultry Q21. Which of the following did you do while you were shopping for category from S.2 ?


TAKEAWAYS

Millennials are now the largest demographic segment and will grow

New approaches will be needed to reach the changing shopper

64% of meat shoppers’ decisions can be influenced in store

1 2 3 4

Millennial CPG purchasing power will increase 70% by 2020 +70%


4 IMPACT ON THE MEAT DEPARTMENT


GENERATION DEFINITION IRI DEFINES THE GENERATIONS AS FOLLOWS:

MILLENNIALS Born 1977-1997

Ages 18-38

GENERATION X Born 1965-1976

Ages 39-50

BABY BOOMERS Born 1946-1964

Ages 51-69

RETIREES & SENIORS Born 1945 & Earlier

Ages 70+


MILLENNIALS ARE 26% OF THE POPULATION AND REPRESENT 23% OF TOTAL STORE SALES

Source: IRI CSIA Total Store View, Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015

13%

40% 21%

26%

Generation X Baby Boomers

Retirees Seniors Millennials

12%

43% 22%

23%



% OF POPULATION % OF TOTAL STORE $ SALES


BUT, MILLENNIALS MAKE UP MORE OF EDIBLE SALES


12%

43% 22%

23%



11%

42% 23%

24%



% OF TOTAL STORE $ SALES % OF EDIBLE $ SALES


23.0%

8.1%

14.9%

EDIBLES

26.0%

11.3%

14.7%

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS ARE A LARGER PERCENTAGE AND ARE GROWING FASTER THAN THOSE W/O KIDS

TOTAL POPULATION

+0.8

+0.2

MILLENNIALS MILLENNIALS NO KIDS MILLENNIALS W//KIDS

IRI: CSIA Total Fresh Chicken (FW & RW), Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015

+0.6

TOTAL STORE

+0.8

+0.1

+0.7

24.1%

8.2%

15.9%

+1.0

+0.2

+0.8


98% 91% 90%

81% 74%

60%

-0.3 -0.4 -0.6

-0.4 -0.4

+0.3

Total M/P/F

CHICKEN BEEF/VEAL PORK TURKEY SEAFOOD/

FISH

Source: IRI CSIA Total Fresh Meat (FW & RW), Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015

% Households Buying

THE PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS BUYING MEAT AND CHICKEN HAS DECLINED SLIGHTLY


$420

$107

$190

$90 $79

$36

+6%

+4%

+6%

-0.3

-0.0 -0.9

Total M/P/F

CHICKEN

BEEF/VEAL

PORK

TURKEY

SEAFOOD/ FISH


$ Per Buyer

RISING COMMODITY COSTS HAVE IMPACTED SPENDING PER BUYER

+9% +1%

+7%


$381

$125

$167

$81 $65 $35

+10% 91

+4% 117

+10% 84

+13% 90 Total

M/P/F

CHICKEN

BEEF/VEAL

PORK

TURKEY

SEAFOOD/ FISH


MILLENNIALS SPEND LESS THAN AVERAGE ON ALL TYPES OF FRESH MEAT EXCEPT CHICKEN

+17% / 79 +4% / 97

$ Per Buyer


$433

$137

$191

$90 $67

$37

+17% 103

+9% 128

+16% 100

+18% 100 Total

M/P/F

CHICKEN

BEEF/VEAL

PORK

TURKEY

SEAFOOD/ FISH


MILLENNIALS W/KIDS SPEND 28% MORE ON CHICKEN THAN AVERAGE

+27% / 85 +11% / 102

$ Per Buyer


MILLENNIALS SPEND 124% MORE WHEN FRESH CHICKEN IS IN THE BASKET

$42 out of basket

$94 in basket

124% More $ Spent

per Trip



MILLENNIALS W/KIDS SPEND 129% MORE WHEN FRESH CHICKEN IS IN THE BASKET

$45 out of basket

$104 in basket

129% More $ Spent

per Trip



SPENDING ON FRESH MEAT AND CHICKEN SKEW TO THE NORTHEAST

IRI: CSIA Total Fresh RTC Meat (RW only), Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015

$ Per Buyer Index

Meat 99 Chicken 99

Meat 87 Chicken 80

Meat 101 Chicken 100

Meat 113 Chicken 126


MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

95%

81%

39%

27%

6%

91%

80%

30% 23%

4%

MORE MILLENNIALS AND MILLENNIAL W/KIDS PURCHASE FRESH CHICKEN AT WALMART AND MASS THAN AVERAGE

TOTAL HHs

-0.4

-0.8

+2.1

-0.3

ALL OUTLET GROCERY X WALMART CLUB M SC X


-0.7

MILLENNIALS 92%

80%

33% 23%

6%

+0.1

-0.1

+4.0

+0.9

-1.0

102

100

111

99 146

+0.0

-0.2

+3.9

-0.1

+1.1

105

101

130

113

149

% Households Buying


$107

$80

$42

$62

$23

MILLENNIALS AND MILLENNIALS W/KIDS SPEND MORE ON FRESH CHICKEN IN ALL CHANNELS

TOTAL HHs

ALL OUTLET GROCERY X WALMART CLUB M SC X

IRI: CSIA Total Fresh Chicken(FW & RW), Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015

MILLENNIALS $125

$93

$51

$72

$24

117

116

123

123

$137

$102

$57 $73

$24

+9% 128

137

118

+4%

+3%

+4%

+13%

+4%

+3%

-1%

-6%

+5%

0%

116

127

105

+11%

-5%

+4%

+12%

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

$ Per Buyer


95%

85%

38% 35% 37%

21%

12%

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

91%

75%

37% 34%

32%

21%

10%

MORE MILLENNIALS PURCHASE CHICKEN BREASTS AND GROUND CHICKEN THAN AVERAGE

TOTAL HHs

-0.4

-0.9

+1.6


+0.1

MILLENNIALS 92%

80%

35% 32% 32%

20%

12%

+0.1

+0.2

+1.8 +2.7 +0.6

101

107

95 93

120

FRESH CHK BREAST THIGHS WHOLE LEGS/DRUMS WINGS GROUND

+0.6

-0.1

-1.1

+1.5

-0.4

100

92

0.0

+1.1

+2.1 +3.5 +1.4

105

115

102 102

119

+1.7

-0.1

115

100

% Households Buying


$125

$78

$29 $23

$27

$43

$11

$137

$84

$26 $22 $31

$49

$11

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

$107

$64

$27 $22 $24

$37

$12

TOTAL HHs

+4%

+2%

+10%


-2%

MILLENNIALS

+4%

0%

-16% +16%

+24%

117

123

106 103

93

FRESH CHK BREAST THIGHS WHOLE LEGS/DRUMS WINGS GROUND

+10%

+12%

+12%

+36%

+23% 116

119

+9%

+1%

+8% +4% +51%

128

131

97 99 93

+49%

+28% 129

135

MILLENNIALS AND MILLENNIALS W/KIDS SPEND MORE ON BREASTS, LEGS/DRUMS AND WINGS

$ Per Buyer


MILLENNIALS SEEKING HIGH PROTEIN CLAIMS, INDEXING AT 114 TO TOTAL EDIBLES


11%

42% 23%

24%



10%

39% 24%

27%



% OF EDIBLE $ SALES % OF EDIBLE $ SALES W/PROTEIN CLAIMS


24% 27%

26% 25%

14%

% of $ Spent

Total edibles

+1.0 +0.7 +1.8 -0.1

+0.6

MILLENNIALS MAKE UP A HIGHER % OF TOTAL DOLLARS IN HIGH PROTEIN CATEGORIES EXCEPT FOR SNACK NUTS

100 112 106 105

58

Yogurt Peanut Butter

Jerky Snack nuts



SOURCES OF PROTEIN CONTINUE TO EXPAND

IRI: CSIA Total Fresh Meat (FW & RW), Total U.S. All Outlet, 52 Weeks Ending 5/17/2015


87% 88%

88% 87%

82%

91%

MORE MILLENNIALS BUY VALUE ADDED CHICKEN THAN AVERAGE

FRESH CHICKEN (FW & RW)

64% 70% 71%

60% 49%

78%

TOTAL HHs MILLENNIALS GEN X BOOMERS RETIREE / SRs


VALUE ADDED CHICKEN (FW)

101 102 100

95

104

111 112

94 78

122

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

% Households Buying


$107

$125 $117

$100

$74

$137

BUT MILLENNIALS INDEX LOWER ON SPEND PER BUYER ON VALUE ADDED VS. FRESH CHICKEN

FRESH CHICKEN (FW & RW)

$48 $50 $57

$45

$32

$56

TOTAL HHs MILLENNIALS GEN X BOOMERS RETIREE / SRs


VALUE ADDED CHICKEN (FW)

117 110

93

69

128

104

119

95

66

117

MILLENNIALS W/KIDS

$ Per Buyer


33.2%

39.8%

9.8% 11.8%

$29 $30

$12 $11

GROUND CHICKEN IS ONLY A FRACTION OF THE SIZE OF GROUND TURKEY WITH TOTAL HHS AND MILLENNIALS

% HHs BUYING

TOTAL HHs GROUND TURKEY

MILLENNIALS GROUND TURKEY

TOTAL HHs GROUND CHICKEN

MILLENNIALS GROUND CHICKEN


$ PER BUYER

30 30 -1.1

+1.2

+3.0

-0.4 42 38

+12.4%

+3.5% +5.0%

+22.9%


5 KEY TAKEAWAYS


TAKEAWAYS Fresh Chicken is a mainstay in the Millennial diet but there is room for growth

Millennials spend 129% more when Fresh Chicken is in the basket

Millennials are looking for high protein products throughout the store – and these products are proliferating

1 2 3 4

Millennials w/Kids spend 28% more on Fresh Chicken – Chicken is well positioned to capture growth as Millennials move to the next lifestage

5 Ground Chicken is only a fraction the size of Ground Turkey


WAYS TO CAPTURE THE MILLENNIAL SHOPPER

Increase focus on in store marketing to influence meat

shoppers

1 2 Aggressively shift dollars into digital


Scream “the original source of

protein”

3 4 Take back the healthy meat

mantel



Leverage existing strength with

Millennials to gain shelf space and promotion

5 6 Continue to evolve value added meat

programs to appeal to Millennials



7 Expand Chicken into

the snacking occasion similar to

how Turkey has evolved



Millennials represent at least a $700MM Opportunity for Fresh Chicken at Retail over the

next 10 years given existing trends*.

LET’S PUSH IT TO $1.5B+

*given current anticipated overall Millennial growth, shift to higher buying power and more HHs w/kids


& ANSWERS


Chris DuBois 312.342.8916

[email protected]

John Crawford 763.458.5101

[email protected]

CHANGING THE MEAT CASE - National Chicken Council · 2018-04-11 · Checked the in-store...

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Transcript of CHANGING THE MEAT CASE - National Chicken Council · 2018-04-11 · Checked the in-store...