Changing perspectives on, Changing perspectives on, and Demographics of, and Demographics of,

AgeingAgeing

Peter ÖbergPeter ÖbergPhD, Associate ProfessorPhD, Associate ProfessorUniversity of GävleUniversity of GävleSwedenSwedenE-mail: Peter.Oberg@hig.seE-mail: Peter.Oberg@hig.se

THE FUTURE IS OLDERTHE FUTURE IS OLDER

The world’s older population (65+) The world’s older population (65+) is increasing by approximately is increasing by approximately how many people how many people each montheach month in in 2008?2008?A) 75.000A) 75.000B) 350.000B) 350.000C) 600.000C) 600.000D) 870.000D) 870.000

THE FUTURE IS OLDERTHE FUTURE IS OLDER

870.000 each month870.000 each month10,4 million people each 10,4 million people each

year (July 2007 – July 2008)year (July 2007 – July 2008)

(US Census Bureau)(US Census Bureau)

THE FUTURE IS OLDERTHE FUTURE IS OLDER

1)1) Changing demography – challenges Changing demography – challenges and mythsand myths

2)2) How demographical changes affect How demographical changes affect and change social relations and life-and change social relations and life-stylesstyles

3)3) Examples mostly from the Nordic Examples mostly from the Nordic countries – trends relevant for countries – trends relevant for Western EuropeWestern Europe

The burden of dependency The burden of dependency perspectiveperspective

To the extent that the ... economic contexts To the extent that the ... economic contexts will be clarified and generally understood, will be clarified and generally understood, this displeasure with the all too many old this displeasure with the all too many old people will seek for justification in a people will seek for justification in a reproach which will not be able to reject: reproach which will not be able to reject: this heavily weighing generation of this heavily weighing generation of geriatrics has been a burdening generation geriatrics has been a burdening generation already in its vital days.already in its vital days.

(Myrdal & Myrdal 1935, 127-127;(Myrdal & Myrdal 1935, 127-127;The The Population Crisis, free translationPopulation Crisis, free translation))

Demographic bomb? (SE)Demographic bomb? (SE)

YEAR 1900

YEAR 2050

15−64 years

65+ years

Tornstam

Percentage of pensioners 65+ of the Percentage of pensioners 65+ of the populationpopulation

Prognosis of the development of Prognosis of the development of pensionerspensioners (% of total population) (% of total population)

Tornstam

Percentage 65+, 1750Percentage 65+, 1750−2050−2050

The Swedish population 1750-2050The Swedish population 1750-2050Age Groups 0-14Age Groups 0-14, , 15-6415-64, , 65+65+

Year

Sum 100 percent

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 20500

20

40

60

80

100

Source: Swedish Official Statistics 2007. Data prognosis for 2007-2050

The Swedish Age Composition

15-64 years

65+ years

0-14 years

60%

60%

Graphics Lars Tornstam

Demographic dependency ratioDemographic dependency ratioTotal population / Population Total population / Population 2020−64−64 (SCB 2003) (SCB 2003)

Dependency ratio for the work forceDependency ratio for the work forceTotal population / Population in the work force (SCB 2003)Total population / Population in the work force (SCB 2003)

““Will there be a helping hand?”Will there be a helping hand?”Swedish Long-term study 1999/2000Swedish Long-term study 1999/2000

POLICYRECOMMENDATIONSPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONS Increased childbirthIncreased childbirth Increased participation in the work force Increased participation in the work force

among immigrantsamong immigrants Influx of foreign Influx of foreign labourlabour Decrease of early exit from the Decrease of early exit from the labourlabour

marketmarket

Finnish Men and Women in different ages who think Finnish Men and Women in different ages who think they have ”Very good” or ”Good” possibilities for new they have ”Very good” or ”Good” possibilities for new employment in case of unemployment (%). employment in case of unemployment (%). (Andersson & Öberg)(Andersson & Öberg)

Ideal types of social structuresIdeal types of social structures (Riley & Riley 1994)(Riley & Riley 1994)

AGEAGE AGE AGE AGE AGEDIFFERENTIATIONDIFFERENTIATION INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION

OldOld

Middle-Middle-

AgedAged

YoungYoung

WORK

LEISURE

EDUCATION

EDUCATION

WORK

LEISURE

Imagined and experienced problems Imagined and experienced problems among elderly (%)among elderly (%) (Finns 60+, Old Age Barometer 1998)(Finns 60+, Old Age Barometer 1998)1) Illness and functional incapacity 1) Illness and functional incapacity 2) Social difficulties2) Social difficulties3) Economical difficulties 3) Economical difficulties 4) Violence and criminality4) Violence and criminality5) Shortage of social services 5) Shortage of social services 6) Shortage of health services6) Shortage of health services7) Too much youth idealization7) Too much youth idealization 8) Shortage of activities8) Shortage of activities9) Something else9) Something else

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Old peoplegenerally

One self

Percentage of 60-90 year old Swedes Percentage of 60-90 year old Swedes ‘often’ feeling lonely‘often’ feeling lonely (Tornstam)(Tornstam)

Place of living:Place of living: %%Stockholm, Gothenburg, Stockholm, Gothenburg, Malmö Malmö

99

Other city Other city

(>10.000 inhabitants)(>10.000 inhabitants)

77

Other placeOther place

(> 3.000 inhabitants)(> 3.000 inhabitants)

88

Countryside/Sparsely-Countryside/Sparsely-populated areapopulated area

66

Conflicts or solidarity between Conflicts or solidarity between generations?generations?

””Young people get it harder – Young people get it harder – older people better and better” older people better and better” ((Metro 2005Metro 2005))

Integration at the micro level will Integration at the micro level will prevent conflicts at the macro prevent conflicts at the macro levellevel

Uppsala Newspaper Uppsala Newspaper (UNT May 19th, 2005)(UNT May 19th, 2005)

““Brisk elderly make the Brisk elderly make the housing shortage housing shortage worse”worse”

((Pigga äldre förvärrar Pigga äldre förvärrar bostadsbristenbostadsbristen))

Ageing of the populationAgeing of the population Reflecting long term decrease in both Reflecting long term decrease in both

fertility and mortalityfertility and mortality More people live into old ageMore people live into old age How ageing of the population changes How ageing of the population changes

social relationssocial relations Changes during the 20th century of both the Changes during the 20th century of both the

experience of ageing and the meaning of experience of ageing and the meaning of ageingageing

Changes in the life course and the relations Changes in the life course and the relations between generationsbetween generations

Cultural and life-style changes of old ageCultural and life-style changes of old age

Ageing and family lifeAgeing and family life

Increase of households with one and two Increase of households with one and two personspersons

The ”verticalisation” of the familyThe ”verticalisation” of the family More grandparents – less grandchildrenMore grandparents – less grandchildren

Relations based on increased equality Relations based on increased equality (emotional bonds, free choices instead of (emotional bonds, free choices instead of tradition and obligations)tradition and obligations) ‘‘Equity model’ in child care – not in eldercareEquity model’ in child care – not in eldercare

Decreased feminization of old ageDecreased feminization of old age

Ageing and family lifeAgeing and family life Postponing of timing and ”ageing” of family Postponing of timing and ”ageing” of family

transitionstransitions Increased time in marriageIncreased time in marriage

Increase of men in elderly care institutionsIncrease of men in elderly care institutions Increase of divorced older peopleIncrease of divorced older people

Affects potentials for informal careAffects potentials for informal care Divorced men have smaller social networks than Divorced men have smaller social networks than

widowed men and higher mortalitywidowed men and higher mortality Increase of new forms of intimacy Increase of new forms of intimacy

LAT and cohabitationLAT and cohabitation Homosexual relations more visibleHomosexual relations more visible

Percentage divorced people 60+in Sweden 1970–2004 (SCB, Öberg)

AGEAGE 19701970 19901990 2004200460–69 years60–69 years 4,44,4

(39.034)(39.034) 11,211,2

(97.136)(97.136) 19,219,2

(181.643)(181.643)

70–79 years70–79 years 3,33,3(17.190)(17.190)

7,37,3(52.254)(52.254)

13,113,1(86.922)(86.922)

80+80+ 2,72,7(5.099)(5.099)

4,64,6(16.901)(16.901)

7,77,7(37.052)(37.052)

Changes in Marital Status over Time for Men Changes in Marital Status over Time for Men 65+ in England and Wales, 200165+ in England and Wales, 2001−−2021 (%)2021 (%)

(Davidson 2006)(Davidson 2006)

MEN 65+MEN 65+ 20012001 20212021 Change Change

20012001−2021−2021

MarriedMarried 7171 6666 − − 5 %5 %

WidowedWidowed 1717 1313 − − 4 %4 %

DivorcedDivorced 55 1313 + 8 %+ 8 %

NeverNever

MarriedMarried 77 88 + 1 %+ 1 %

100%100% 100%100%

Changes in Marital Status over Time for Changes in Marital Status over Time for Women 65+ in England and Wales, Women 65+ in England and Wales,

20012001−−20212021 (Davidson 2006)(Davidson 2006)

WOMEN 65+WOMEN 65+ 20012001 20212021 Change Change

20012001−2021−2021

MarriedMarried 4040 4545 + 5 %+ 5 %

WidowedWidowed 4848 3535 − − 13 %13 %

DivorcedDivorced 66 1414 + 8 %+ 8 %

NeverNever

MarriedMarried 66 55 −− 1 %1 %

100%100% 100%100%

Theory of the Third AgeTheory of the Third Age(Peter Laslett)(Peter Laslett)

1)1) FIRST AGEFIRST AGE Dependency, socialisation, immaturity, Dependency, socialisation, immaturity,

educationeducation

2) 2) SECOND AGESECOND AGE Independency, maturity and responsibility, Independency, maturity and responsibility,

earnings and savingsearnings and savings

3)3) THIRD AGETHIRD AGE Personal self-fulfilment, “crown of life”Personal self-fulfilment, “crown of life”

4)4) FOURTH AGEFOURTH AGE Dependency, decrepitude and deathDependency, decrepitude and death

WILL OLD AGE BE HEALTHIER?WILL OLD AGE BE HEALTHIER? 1) Compression of morbidity1) Compression of morbidity

““Healthy life expectancy” increase more than life Healthy life expectancy” increase more than life expectancyexpectancy

2) Extension of morbidity2) Extension of morbidity ““Healthy life expectancy” constant – increase of Healthy life expectancy” constant – increase of

ill years of lifeill years of life Medical paradox: the more people saved to life – Medical paradox: the more people saved to life –

the more health care problems (“Survival of the the more health care problems (“Survival of the ununfittest”)fittest”)

WILL OLD AGE BE HEALTHIER?WILL OLD AGE BE HEALTHIER? 3) Postponement of morbidity3) Postponement of morbidity

Increase in life expectancy corresponding to increase in Increase in life expectancy corresponding to increase in “healthy life expectancy”“healthy life expectancy”

Decrease in mortality corresponding to decrease in Decrease in mortality corresponding to decrease in morbiditymorbidity

Support from studies in Norway, Sweden and FinlandSupport from studies in Norway, Sweden and Finland Both ADL and IADL has improved for all age groups 65+ Both ADL and IADL has improved for all age groups 65+

in Sweden 1988/89-2002/03in Sweden 1988/89-2002/03 ““Heroic medicine” not only saves lives – but also reduces Heroic medicine” not only saves lives – but also reduces

the effects of the chronic disease on illness and the effects of the chronic disease on illness and functional capacity functional capacity

The important issue for health care costs is not how The important issue for health care costs is not how old one is – but how many years of life one has old one is – but how many years of life one has aheadahead

Prognosis for the number of 80+ Prognosis for the number of 80+ people in Sweden 2010people in Sweden 2010((National Statistics of SwedenNational Statistics of Sweden))

Year ofYear of

PrognosisPrognosis

Number of Number of people 80+people 80+

20102010

19781978 340.000340.000

19861986 430.000430.000

19971997 500.000500.000

Percentage of 75-84 year old men and Percentage of 75-84 year old men and women with ”bad” or ”very bad” health women with ”bad” or ”very bad” health

experience (1980experience (1980−−2003)2003)

WomenMen

%

Percentage with IADL-impairment among Percentage with IADL-impairment among Swedish Women 65+ (1988/89-2002/03)Swedish Women 65+ (1988/89-2002/03)

(cleaning, cooking, buying food, laundry)(cleaning, cooking, buying food, laundry)

0102030405060708090

100

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90- 65+

1988/1989

2002/2003

Percentage with IADL-impairment among Percentage with IADL-impairment among Swedish Men 65+ (1988/89-2002/03)Swedish Men 65+ (1988/89-2002/03)

(cleaning, cooking, buying food, laundry)(cleaning, cooking, buying food, laundry)

0102030405060708090

100

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90- 65+

1988/1989

2002/2003

Percentage with higher education (>3 years) among 60-74 year oldSwedes 1985–2004 (SCB, Öberg)

AGEAGE 19851985 19951995 20042004

60–64 years60–64 years MenMenWomenWomen

5533

8877

13131414

65–69 years65–69 years MenMenWomenWomen

5522

7755

10101010

70–74 years70–74 years MenMenWomenWomen

4422

6633

9988

Percentage of Finnish households having a Percentage of Finnish households having a carcar according to the age of the reference according to the age of the reference

person person 1985-2001/20021985-2001/2002(Reference person: the highest income in the household)(Reference person: the highest income in the household)

0102030405060708090

%

-35 35-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age

1985

2001-2

Toothless 70 year old peopleToothless 70 year old people (H70; Sweden)(H70; Sweden)

YearYear PercentagePercentage

19711971 52 %52 %

19761976 38 %38 %

19921992 17 %17 %

20012001 8 %8 %

Smoking among 70 year old Smoking among 70 year old Swedish men and women (%)Swedish men and women (%)

YearYear MenMen

%%

WomenWomen

%%

19711971 50 50 1212

19811981 3535 1515

19921992 2222 1919

““I consider myself a youthful I consider myself a youthful person” (%) person” (%) (Öberg & Tornstam 2003)(Öberg & Tornstam 2003)

0

20

40

60

80

100

20-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75-85

Age

%Men

Women

““It is important for me to be sexually It is important for me to be sexually active”active” (Percentage in different ages who agree) (Percentage in different ages who agree) (Öberg & Tornstam 2003)(Öberg & Tornstam 2003)

0102030405060708090

%

20-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75-85

Age

Men

Women

Image of Elderly i Nordic CountriesImage of Elderly i Nordic Countries(Eurobarometer)(Eurobarometer)

Have a good economyHave a good economyAre active and participate in societyAre active and participate in societyTypical “Old age home” is the own Typical “Old age home” is the own

apartment or houseapartment or houseAre treated with respectAre treated with respectAre not particularly religiousAre not particularly religious

Norwegian study on life course, Norwegian study on life course, ageing and generationsageing and generations

1)1) Will tomorrow’s elderly have other Will tomorrow’s elderly have other preferences, opinions or values than preferences, opinions or values than elderly today?elderly today?

2)2) Will changes in family structure affect Will changes in family structure affect the potential for informal care and the potential for informal care and support?support?

5.600 individuals in 30 municipalities5.600 individuals in 30 municipalities 40-79 years old40-79 years old

Tomorrow’s elderlyTomorrow’s elderly (NO) (NO)

Elderly care users will be less modest, Elderly care users will be less modest, more demanding, and expect more more demanding, and expect more autonomyautonomy

Have more individualistic values Have more individualistic values personal achievement, pleasure, new experiencespersonal achievement, pleasure, new experiences More consuming instead of saving for childrenMore consuming instead of saving for children

Less likely to hold traditional valuesLess likely to hold traditional values conformity and modestyconformity and modesty

Fourth age decrease possibilities for Fourth age decrease possibilities for individualistic valuesindividualistic values

Tomorrow’s elderlyTomorrow’s elderly (NO) (NO)

More divorced elderly parents may receive More divorced elderly parents may receive less care from their childrenless care from their children Less children, more childless couples, more Less children, more childless couples, more

living alone, more co-habitationliving alone, more co-habitation New gender rolesNew gender roles

““Modern” elderly men partake more in Modern” elderly men partake more in household and care work (may lessen the household and care work (may lessen the demand on social service)demand on social service)

Differences in health behaviour between Differences in health behaviour between men and women decliningmen and women declining