Changing Patterns of Global Terrorism

Faheem Ul Hasan

AimTo Provide an Overview of the

TacticalChanges and Emerging Trends in

Trans-National TerrorismTo Offer Some Perspective on the

Way Ahead

Global TrendsDemographicsUrbanizationEducationMigrationSecular vs. Religious Values

Area Of ConcernGlobalThe Diaspora ConnectionSelf-RadicalizationTactical DevolutionPakistanAfghanistanSouth Asia Emerging as the Global Epicentre

of Terrorism

Strategic TrendsAl – Qaeda in a Strategic Cul de Sac yet Posing

a Credible Threat to Global Security• An Incomplete Ideological Battle

Compounding the Problem• Lack of Effective Trans-National Cooperation

Creating an Advantageous Situation for the Terrorist Organizations.

• The Deepening Problem in the Global South: Need to Address Core Issues

Changes In TacticsBomb Blasts Increasingly Being

Replaced by Operations involving Small Arms e.g. Mumbai CST Attack 26/11/2009

• New Innovations in Training and Organization

Changes In Tactics (Cont’d)Small Groups and Sleeper Cells Increasingly Gaining Prominence.The Lone Wolf Making a Comeback?Decentralized Organizational Structure – The Case

of JMBNew Innovations in Training: The Use of Char areas

for trainingTraining Terrorists to Earn an Alternative

Livelihood!An Evolving Crime – Terror Nexus

The Emerging Threat ScenariosThe Looming Threat to Critical Infrastructure:Rawalpindi Water SupplyThe Threat from Internet Radicalization: The

Case of South East AsiaFighting the Flow of Money: The Challenge

from Terrorist FinancingJMB Financing – Bona Fide InvestmentsThe Question of Nuclear SecurityTerrorist or Insurgent – Where to Draw the

Line?

The Emerging Threat Scenarios The Deepening Threat of Radicalization

Across SocietiesThe Increasing Threat from Extremist Groups

in the Context of South Asia The Problem of Integration in an Increasingly

Globalizing WorldThe Rise of The Radical Elements Across

Different Societies: The Mainstream Becoming Smaller

Getting The Message Across: Strategic CommunicationTerrorist Organizations Globally Adopting a Multi-Platform StrategyUse of Leaflets and other Print MethodsIncreased Presence on the InternetUse of Chat GroupsUsing Social Networking Sites and the Use of New MediaThe Terrorist TV Network – The Example of As Sahab

What Lies Ahead?Need to Address Radicalization andExtremism at a National and International LevelNot Adequate to Fight Terrorism the TacticThe Need to Fashion an Adequate Strategy to Fight the Ideological BattleUnderstanding What Makes a Terrorist Group Tick

What Lies Ahead? (Cont’d)CT is not a the Task of the Governments AloneNeed to Engage Different StakeholdersThe Role of the TheologiansMedia Playing a More Proactive RoleImportance of Building Social Resilience Against TerrorismA Carefully Calibrated Multi Pronged Strategy

Questions and Comments