Changing Forests…Enduring Values

NACP Research Supporting Mandated Forest Service Carbon Monitoring Activities

Sean Healey1, Warren Cohen1, Chris Woodall1, Rich Birdsey1, Dave Cleaves1, Grant Domke1, Alex Hernandez2, Jing Chen3, Min Zhang3, Zhiqiang Yang4, Karen Dante1, Todd Schroeder1, Steve Stehman5, Gretchen Moisen1, Hans Andersen1

1. US Forest Service2. Utah State University3. University of Toronto

4. Oregon State University5. SUNY ESF

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

• UNFCCC reporting for US forest sector• Technical support for national forests and

grasslands to meet policy/business requirements simultaneously, consistently, and with appropriate scientific rigor:– Climate Change Performance Scorecard Element 9– 2012 Planning Rule and Directives– NEPA Considerations

Forest Service Carbon Responsibilities

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

1. Emphasize ecosystem integrity and resilience.2. Recognize carbon sequestration as one of many services.3. Support practical and effective approaches in carbon

exchange and markets. 4. Consider system dynamics and scale in decision making.5. Use the best information and methods to make decisions

about carbon stewardship. 6. Strive for program integration and balance.

Forest Carbon Management Principles

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

• Much progress has been made in the inventory and C accounting over the last decade– Nearly all C pool estimates are now obtained from annual inventory

measurements • The current C accounting framework was not built around the annual NFI• Must leverage the large investment in the annual NFI in the new

accounting framework– Build in flexibility to incorporate remotely sensed data and

associated products in the disturbance and LUC modules– Adaptable to user-defined scenarios to engage stakeholders and

partner agencies

Forest Accounting for UNFCCC reporting is being re-engineered

Landsat-based history information is a useful predictor of biomass, and can be used to predict biomass over time• In order to have enough history to predict biomass

going back to the early 1990s, we need to use history data that includes the MSS (1972-1984) archive

Pflugmacher et al., 2012

NASA CMS Project to enhance coherence of biomass estimates over time with remote sensing (PI:Cohen)

Developing methods to integrate lidar data into carbon monitoring both for biomass estimation applications in this country and to pilot methods that may be useful in countries where field data are less plentiful.

Example of lidar data collected at South Carolina site

NASA CMS Project to enhance coherence of biomass estimates over time with remote sensing (PI:Cohen)

• Scorecard Element 9 – Carbon Assessment and Stewardship

– Baseline assessment of carbon stocks – Influence of disturbance and management activities – Integrating carbon stewardship

Application – Climate Change Performance Scorecard

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

Forest Carbon Management Framework (ForCaMF) developed through NASA Applied Science (PI: Healey)

ID Panhandle NF less fire, more harvest

• Role of disturbance and management in forest carbon storage is assessed by integrating a forest dynamics model with maps of forest condition (structure, species composition) and subsequent disturbance

• Uses a new method for calibrating Monte Carlo simulations called “PDF Weaving” (Healey et al., 2014 RSE) to explicitly account for map error

Results can be viewed over time and with uncertainty

Flathead National Forest more fire, less harvest

Healey et al., 2014 Remote Sensing of Environment

Idaho Panhandle National Forest more fire, less

harvest

Forest Carbon Management Framework (ForCaMF) developed through NASA Applied Science (PI: Healey)

Deliverables: Historical assessments (1990-2012) of the relative carbon impact of management and disturbance on each planning unit (national forest) • Nationally consistent methods

• Aligned with inventory information already used by the national forests

• Transparent error calculations

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

InTEC is a process model that is carefully calibrated with inventory-based productivity information and high-quality disturbance data

Assessment of climatic and disturbance factors for the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest

Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (InTEC) (PI: Chen; Collaborator: Birdsey)

Changing Forests…Enduring Values

Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (InTEC) (PI: Chen; Collaborator: Birdsey)

Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest

InTEC balances the breadth of a process model with the fidelity to local inventory data that is needed for credibility among managers

• The Forest Service has a proactive stance on carbon assessment

• Past NACP research has led to monitoring systems that are currently helping the National Forest System with mandated assessments

• Current NACP research will likely support our future national UNFCCC reporting approach

Summary

Changing Forests…Enduring Values