Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends

Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 –Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends

Jonathan Robinson, Senior Consultant

Enguerran Ripert, Consultant

Energy & Power

July 13th, 2010

2

Focus Points

� Projected Infrastructure Investment

� Timeline of Major Market Issues

� Electricity Generation & Fuel Growth Trends

� Key Gas Trends

� Nuclear Development

� Top 10 Technologies to Watch for in 2020

� Smart Grids

� CCS

� Biogas

3

Projected World Infrastructure Investment 2005-2030

North America

Asia/Oceania

Europe

Source: Morgan Stanley

Middle East

Latin/South America Africa

Water

Power

Road & Rail

Air/Seaports

$22,610bn

$9,000bn

$7,800bn

$1,590bn

Total

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

100

200

300

400

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

0

200

400

600

800

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

4

2010 20202015

Fuel SupplyAnd Costs

Major Issue

World EnergyDemand

Timeline for Major Market Issues

China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter

of CO2

2025 2030

World energy demandalmost double 2000 levels

Growth dominatedby India & China

WorldCO2 emissions

reach 40 Gt

20% renewableenergy in Europe

Demand for liquid fuel falling after 2015

Stationary fuel cellscontribute to

distributed generation

Accelerated investmentin carbon capture

and storage

Electricity generation passes 30,000 billion kWh

Continued accelerationof coal-fired power

Acceleration ofnatural gas

Coal reachesalmost 45% of energy consumption, following

growth in India and China

World Electricity

Generation(billion kWrh)

Source: EIA & Frost & Sullivan

10,000

EnvironmentIssues

20,000

30,000

0

Resurgenceof nuclear

Oil passes$100 per

barrel Growth of natural gaskept in check by high

gas prices

Deceleration andmaturation of EU

Long-runningboom in Russia

2010 20202015 2025

Growth resumedin all regions

Developing economiespass 40% of electricity

demand

Oil dropsto $35 per

barrel

World renewablesgrowth

Potable waterconsumption up

50% on 1995

Boom in ROdesalination

Energy from waste in emerging

markets

5

Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan

Growth in Electricity Generation by Region

Chinese = 5.2%.

Indian = 4.3%.

Middle East = 3.5%.

EU + North American = 1%.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2020 2030

Ele

ctri

city

Ge

ne

rati

on

(TW

h)

North America Latin America EU CEE/CIS

Middle East Africa China India

ASEAN OECD Pacific Other

19,756

26,620

32,600

6


Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2020 2030

Ele

ctri

city

Ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables

7


CAGR Growth of Key Fuels

7.2%

5.0%

2.2%

2.9%

1.5%

-1.8%

1.3%

7.7%

15.2%

2.2%

1.8%

2.4%

-3.3%

2.1%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Other renewables

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Compound Annual Growth Rate

2007-2020

2020-2030

Oil

8

Source: Lambert Energy Advisory

Coal-Bed Methane (CBM) Potential, barrels of oil equivalent

Shale Gas Potential, barrels of oil equivalent

US Shale Gas 100bn

US CBM 15bn+

Latin America Shale Gas 50-100bn

China Shale Gas 50-100bn

Europe Shale Gas 90bnCanada Shale Gas 20bn+

China CBM 75bn

Indonesia CBM 75bn

Australia CBM 40bn

Growth of Unconventional Gas

9

UK

10.2

LNG Exports and Imports

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010

Brunei

8.8

Trinidad

19.7

LNG Exporter (bcm)

LNG Importer (bcm)

USA

12.8Japan

85.9

Australia

24.2

Nigeria

16.0

Algeria

20.9

Indonesia

26.0

Malaysia

29.5

Qatar

49.4Egypt

12.8

UAE

7.0

Oman

11.5

Turkey

5.7

India

12.6Taiwan

11.8

France

13.1

China

7.6

Spain

27.1 Korea

34.3

Eq.G.

4.7

Mexico

3.6

Belgium

6.5

10

Gas Price Trends

Outlook for the Energy & Power Industry: Natural Gas

Prices, US Henry Hub ($/mmbtu), 2007-2010

Outlook for the Energy & Power Industry: WTI Crude Oil

Prices, ($/barrel), 2007-2010

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2008 2009 2010

100

75

50

125

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Thomson Reuters from FT Energy

Source: Thomson Reuters from FT Energy

$

$

11

Countries/Regions Planning for Nuclear Power

Countries/Regions Using Nuclear Power

USUnits = 23

EuropeUnits = 30

Russia & CISUnits = 73

IndiaUnits = 23

ChinaUnits = 54

Asia (Other)Units = 33

Middle EastUnits = 5

1 14

8

Nuclear Power Plants Under Construction

Nuclear Power Plants PlannedNuclear Power Plants Proposed

6 10

14

1 0

4

10 18

45

6 10

7

5 16

7

11 20

23

Source: IAEA PRIS

Nuclear - Expansion and Development

12

Nuclear - Current and New to Market Technologies

PWR, 225GW

BWR, 94GW

PHWR, 40GW

LWGR, 10GW

GCR+FBR, 2GW

GW Installed,

2010

<15 years

<20 years

<25 years

<30 years

<35 years

<40 years

HiPER, JET, ITER

-25yMany typesFusion

DFR, PFR

8yFast Breeding Reactor

FBR

-30yGas Cooled reactor

GCR

-40yLight Water Graphite Reactor

LWGR

-40yPressurised Heavy Water

Reactor

PHWR

ABWR60yBoiling Water Reactor

BWR

EPR, AP1000

60yPressurised Water Reactor

PWR

Latest models

AgeDescription

Source: Frost & Sullivan

13

32

45

2

6

3

6

4 43

6

45

9

6

4

1011

14

22

24

3233

21

18

22

19

7

1314

16

11

22

15

10

12

5

7

1 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

Age of Units

Nu

mb

er

of

Un

its

� Worldwide = 371GW of installed nuclear capacity = 471 units. Currently there are 44 plants in construction, 11 of which are

in China and 25 in Asia-Pacific including China.

� Europe = 198 installed units = 171GW installed. However, nuclear plant age is an issue which needs to be analysed

carefully, as NuPLEx (Nuclear Plant License Extensions) can only be granted for a certain number of years beyond design life.

The average design life for installed capacity is 34 years, however, Nuplex can be granted for up to 10 years. Newer models

such as the EPR from Areva, and the AP1000 from Toshiba Westinghouse, have design lives of 60 years, however, none are

yet in production.

� At present, there are over 160 plants which await their detailed reviews and maintenance schedule, an obligatory check

performed every 10 years.

Number of worldwide nuclear plants distributed by age, 2009 Q1

Nuclear - Significant Refurbishment Market

14

Top 10 Technologies to Watch For in 2020

Renewable Inverters

Waste-to-energy

Advanced Batteries and Storage

SMART Grid

Biofuels/

Biogas

Fuel cellsHigh Voltage

Transmissions & Distributions

Energy Management

Solar PV

Carbon Capture and Storage

Top 10 Technologies of the Future

Following are key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high

ROI.

Following are key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high

ROI.


15

Smart House with EV car generator

Smart Grid Control Centre

Wind Power

Solar Power

Energy Storage

Hospital

Pre 2010

2010 – 2020

Conventional Grid and Infrastructure

Houses

Power Station

Office Building

Factory

Transformation of Conventional Grid ��Energy Internet (Smart Grid)

Distributed Generation

Smart Grid – Change from Today

16

Smart Grid

Advanced Metering Infrastructure

Demand Response Power T&DEmerging

Technologies

Smart Meters

Network and Connectivity

In-home Displays T&D Automation

High Voltage Transmission

Energy Storage

Power Load Services

Smart Thermostats

HAN Appliances

PHEV Chargers

What makes up a “Smart Grid”


17

Propensity towards smart meter investments

Deg

ree o

f Im

ple

men

tati

on

Low

High

High

Sweden

Italy

Netherlands

France

Denmark

Finland

United Kingdom

Germany

Austria

Spain

CyprusLatvia

Czech Republic

Portugal

Belgium

Poland

Ireland

Malta


Smart Grid – European Smart Grid Development

18

Smart Grid – Energy Storage Technologies

Lithium-ion

NiCad

Fuel Cells

MaturityDevelopment Growth

Flywheels

Ultracapacitors

Decline

Time

Mark

et

Valu

e (

$ B

illio

n)

Lead Acid

NiMH

Carbon ZincAlkaline

Flow batteries, CAES, SMES, Thermal batteries, Thin film

Zinc air

Primary Lithium

19

Smart Grid – Voltage Regulation


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Units Growth Rate (%)

Distribution-Static Var Compensators

20

Smart Meter Market Participants – A Snapshot

ManufacturersRemote

Monitoring & Automation

Network Companies

Utilities ICT Firms


21

Three Main Approaches to CO2 Capture

Post-combustion systems - separate CO2 gas produced by ‘air-blown’ combustion of fossil fuel or biomass.

Post-combustion systems - separate CO2 gas produced by ‘air-blown’ combustion of fossil fuel or biomass.

Oxy-fuel combustion systems produce a flue gas from ‘oxygen-blown’ combustion, they have a much higher concentration of CO2 than conventional ‘air-blown’ combustion.

Oxy-fuel combustion systems produce a flue gas from ‘oxygen-blown’ combustion, they have a much higher concentration of CO2 than conventional ‘air-blown’ combustion.

Pre-combustion systems process the primary fuel in a reactor to produce synthesis gas (syngas), which is then converted and separated into gas streams – CO2 for storage and hydrogen as fuel for a gas turbine or as chemical feedstock.

Pre-combustion systems process the primary fuel in a reactor to produce synthesis gas (syngas), which is then converted and separated into gas streams – CO2 for storage and hydrogen as fuel for a gas turbine or as chemical feedstock.

Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies

22

Carbon Capture and Storage – Capacity Expansion Forecasts

North America Asia PacificEurope

2010 2015 2010 2015 2010 2015

1,050 8,395 67 12,820 800 1,200

Rest of the World

2010 2015

0 420CCS, MW

Note: The Forecast is based on CCS projects in Planning

Source: Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage, CSLF, Frost & Sullivan

23

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2007 2015

Other

Wastewater(sludge)

Landfill


Biogas Market in Europe

Biogas Plan Market: Market Shares of Biogas Produced

by Type of (Europe), 2007

Biogas Market in Europe – 5,347 ktoe*

Landfill gas Other biogas

Sewage sludge gas

3,116 ktoe

58%

1,281 ktoe

24%

950 ktoe

18%

Decentralised Agricultural Plants

Municipal solid waste methanisation plants

Centralised Co-digestion Plants

Biogas Plan Market: Market Shares of Biogas Produced

by Type of (Europe), 2007-2015

24


Biogas - Market Revenue Forecasts

Biogas Plant Market: Revenue Growth Forecasts (Europe), 2005-2015

Revenues ($Billion)

Growth per annum (%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Revenues Base Case Scenario

Growth rate Base Case Scenario

Revenues Optimistic Scenario

2015

Growth rateOptimistic Scenario

- 00,25

0,50

0,75

1,0

1,2

1,5

1,7

2,0

2,2

2,5

5

10

15

20

25

30

2,256

1,283

2015

1,8801,5531,2631,027855.8690.2580.0Optimistic

1,1561,041930.1829.7734.2644.1580.0Base Case

2014201320122011201020092008Scenario Analysis (in million Euros)

25

Key Regional Markets for Biogas in Europe


Germany

Opportunity indicator

Low

High

Opportunity indicator

Low

High

Low

High

Austria

Switzerland

The Netherlands

France

ItalySpain

CEE

Sweden

Note:

Size of bubbles indicates market size

Color of bubbles indicates current growth

26

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Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends

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Transcript of Changes to the Energy Mix by 2020 – Medium Term Outlook on Energy Trends